Obama

Super Tuesday for Democrats is about choosing the future or the past for both a country and a party. Two fine candidates are running in a very close race. This old political war horse is choosing the future. Perhaps some of these factors are obvious, but they are vital to just what we build as a country and as a party

1) Nominating Hillary will obviously bring out the right wing base (their time, money, and motivation), because of their history with Billary.
2) Primaries and campaign contributions have shown Barack has brought new and young voters to his cause. Democrats need this base for the future
3) Unlike McCain and Hillary, Barack does not accept Lobbyist’s money. In fact, Hillary has accepted more $ from military contractors than McCain according to Huffington Post.
4) Barack has shown excellent management skills in starting at nothing and building a campaign to rival Hillary’s. The Clinton’s, with the establishment, have gone from inevitable to a horse race.
5) Barack will bring out more independent and new voters as the primaries have shown obviously impacting other races for office.
6) Barack’s original stand on the war matters and makes for a far more effective position against McCain than Hillary’s position.
7) 4 years ago Democrats choose experience (John Kerry) and look what happened. Barack Obama has a lot more to offer voters than Howard Dean

You can make a difference tomorrow, by joining this old political war horse and choosing a new future for both the country and the Democratic party. – Barack Obama.

Index % Change Volume

Dow +0.73% flat
NASDQ +0.98% up
S&P500 +1.22% down
Russell2000 +2.41% –

Technicals

US markets had another good day in above average volume. Chart of the benchmark S&P 500 . Technically, because of the strong volume behind rally of almost two weeks, bulls have reason to be optimistic. Longer term bear resistance levels will be encountered this week if the rally progresses.

Bond Insurers

Update’s mantra for the few weeks has been the Bond insurer ABK and MBI. What happens here dramatically impacts US markets and therefore the world. Latest story “Big Banks Attempt To Rescue Ambac, Other Insurer’s” at http://www.cnbc.com/id/22948246

Measuring Fear

The VIX which roughly measures the amount of fear in the S&P 500, fell Friday 8.32% to 24.02. The major support line is the 200 day moving average just above 20. (See red line on chart) When it comes close to that support level I personally will be adding a short positions.

Bottom Line

Long Term Outlook CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH – A CHANGE – An upgrade from BEARS RULE because of the two/three major “accumulation” days. (caution – this “Outlook” is based on US equities and while US markets greatly influence other markets it is not necessarily the outlook for recommended sectors).
While the recession is a threat to the economy, the credit/transparency crisis is a greater threat to the markets and also impacts or economy. The question for Wall Street is not whether there will be a recession or not, but how long will it last.

Asset Allocation/ Recommended Sectors (long term)

*15 % Energy rich EWZ, (Brazil) RSX (Russia) two recommended countries. TRAMX (for aggressive investors – mutual fund invests in Mideast and Africa)
*25% Energy – PBW – 15% (alternative energy) XLE 10 % (energy companies) Other considerations in alternative energy GEX and PZD.
*20 % GLD (gold).
*40 % cash (All investors can short rallies if they are comfortable with this- strongly recommended as a short term defensive play) ProShares offer a lot of short and ultra short ETF’s. Use VIX for strategy on this (see above)
These are long term positions. Best Strategy – BUY THE DIPS – Be patient. (There is a hold on this right now because of bearish trend except for gold)
Shorter term shorting strategy involves the VIX
As Always, Do Your Own Research Before Investing

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