Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
April 30, 2009

Market Update – Stock Breakout

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,
WHAT’s UP:  Breakout! - Major US indexes breakout of their trading ranges and establish new highs.   Flu Alert goes to Devcon 5 Perhaps as early as tomorrow it will officially be a pandemic – Devcon 6.  Why the often quoted NYT columnist Tom Friedman is Wrong. Having some server problems this AM
Wall Street Bull
Mike Cane Photo

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +2.11% down
NASDQ +2.28% up
S&P500 +2.16% up
Russell2000 +3.94% -
-
Technicals and Fundamentals



The Bulls are Back! - All major indexes broke out of their trading ranges. Volume, our chief confirmation factor, was (except for Dow) up and above and above average.  The FXI (shadowbanks etc.) also moved higher +4.31%, but did not break out of trading range.

Reading the Tea Leaves - The -6.1GDP number on the surface seemed bad and was worse than expected. But consumer spending was higher and consumers make up 70+% of the economy.  

Fundamentally - What investors see is a -6.1% bottom and things will improve from that number.  Perhaps we move to flat growth.  That would be a 6.1% gain in GDP.  So a bad number for GDP in this case is good. Obviously, Wall Street seems to believe the huge amounts of stimulus that the Obama administration and the Fed is pumping into the economy will work.  The shadow banks are getting favorable treatment. Obama does instill confidence and that helps.

Even the fact of a flu pandemic is not stopping the rally. The warning level went from 4 to 5 and 6 is as high as it gets.  - Market moving higher on bad news is bullish.

Technically - All charts of major indexes are showing higher highs.  This is clearly bullish. Investors411 has consistently backed this trend (Buy the Dips).

Personally – I did cut the short positions on China/Brazil – protection against the flu. (see blog last three posts) Brazil and China are still our # 1& #2 positions. Looks like I fell victim to the over hyping of the flu pandemic, but still remain cautious. All this could tern on a dime. - Mea Culpa. 

Long Term Outlook - Change to NEUTRAL from CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH if we hold above breakout levels. 

 In the short term (next few weeks/months +) things look good.  However , in the longer term the outlook still has massive storm clouds.  Also raising Asset Allocation another +5% - 30 to 70% – The amount you choose between 30% and 70% is up to your level of risk. Still believe in a pullback later in the year. These amounts will get changed on blog when I gain access

Caution - This rally is a rebound from ultra low levels and not to be confused with a long term multi year bull market.
  

 

Why Tom Friedman is Wrong

OK,  the guy is brilliant, but every time he starts writing about Iraq months/years later does a mea culpa. This time Tom Tom agrees painstakingly with Obama’s decision not have a blue ribbon committee about torture. However he also ties all this to “Democracy” in Iraq.

First Obama in his major press conference last night stated “Waterboarding was Torture” Torture is a “mistake.” However, when pressed that’s as far as he would go – No investigation. 

You can find Friedman’s “A Torturous Compromise.” at NYT site (sorry I may be having a problem with cookies and can not link to this site)

More on this on Monday – Working on technical problem now.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING
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April 29, 2009

Market Updates – Republican Slide

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP – A Republican defection: Republican’s embrace the far right and shrink – Specter & Sebelius; First US death from "Swine" flu – Your comments- "The Critic" and Abby Gold. GDP comes in worse than expected for 1st 1/4 = -6.1% ; Shadow Baks stocks slipping: Trade (BDI) between countries start to slip again – swine flu?

Senator Arlen Specter -Alex Wong/Getty Images

Republican Defections

Republican Senator Arlen Specter (PA) is switching from Rep. to Dem. Here is some Links – WaPo , & Politico

BottomLine – It’s not just Specter and the fact that he brings the Democratic Party closer to a veto proof 60 vote majority. (It is now 59 votes and Franken (Dem) looks like he will win in MN.)

What’s happening is as the Republican’s become more extreme (embracing the far right – example Limbaugh) they are loosing supporters.  Most polls show Democrats gaining slightly or remaining flat. Independents are the group that’s growing the fastest . Yahoo story

Kathleen Sebelius dives into discussing the swine flu at the White House after being sworn in.

Kathlene Sebelius

When it Rains it Pours – Republicans

Republicans voted against putting in $900 million for flu pandemic protection into the stimulus package. Big mistake. Obama now is proposing a $1.5 billion supplemental to handle the growing crisis.

Republicans have also blocked the nomination of KA Dem. governor Kathlene Sebelius to the top health position and a whole lot of other positions in heath care remain unfilled. So we have a potential major crisis and the party is caught with its pants down. Tides go in and out. But, the tide is certainly going out for Republicans now. Sebelius finally gets the job CNN story link


Swine Flu

First US Death from Swine Flu

A 23 month old child in Texas has died from the flu – The first US casualty. NYC has the most cases and the disease is being transmitted by humans. Link to CNBC story on Flu

Both "The Critic" (Who is traveling from a foreign country to the USA) and Abby Gold have very relevant  comments.  They stress the over hype of the media and plummeting pork prices. See comments section on right side of blog. (photo credit – AP)

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.10% up
NASDQ -0.33% down
S&P500 -0.27% down
Russell2000 +0.70% -

Technicals & Fundamentals

USA GDP Numbers for 1st 1/4 = -6.1% (breaking news 8:30 EST) Worse than expected number. But this is not a forward looking statistic. There was better than expected consumer spending numbers in this report.

No real movement yesterday in US equities. The fact that US indexes were flat despite the possible flu pandemic news is bullish for stocks .

Possible Flu Pandemic (See yesterday’s Updates)

From yesterdayAs always – don’t make huge massive moves (all in all out) – But  both FXI and EWZ have had a great run over the last six weeks and some protection seems prudent .

If the outbreak continues to grow - Link to what happens to Oil prices and Commodities

———-

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks ) rose -3.09 % Friday in decreased volume .  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF)

The XFL is consolidating between @ 9.4 & 11.3. XFL closed at 10.43 .   9.4 and 11.3 is the support  & resistance levels all Wall Street is watching.

BDI – The Baltic Dry Index (measures trade) has started back down again after establishing a technically bearish lower high. BDI down - 2.67 % (see chart at side of blog) Too early to call a trend, but troubling.

Fed meets today . Release of interest statement at 2:15 EST today – No dramatic changes expected.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARIS H

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTIN G !

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April 28, 2009

Market Updates – A Choo

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP – Swine flu –  Possible pandemic or over hyped media crisis?  How to protect your portfolio and Investor411 positions:

FLUSTATUEALfredoEstrella:AFP:Getty

By Alfredo Estrella/AFP/Getty Images.

Fears of Flu

Fears of a flu pandemic are sweeping the globe., The head of the World Health Organization said the flu outbreak is a “serious situation” that has a “pandemic potential”.  Already over a half dozen countries have reported cases of Swine Flu.  All corners of the globe are being impacted by this possible pandemic. Its going to get worse before it gets better.

Most major media outlets have given issued alerts on what to do. World Heath Center has raised danger level over this disease today.  

Over Hyped? – 1/2 million people die from the flu each year.  It’s too early to tell how many people in Mexico have had the flu ,but 152 have died in Mexico. If a million people had the flu then this death rate is far less consequential. No deaths are reported in other countries.

It is also the end of flu season not the beginning (Dec.) So all this may be an overhyped media crisis.

Below under Technicals and Fundamental section of stocks is how to protect your portfolio.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.64% down
NASDQ -0.88% down
S&P500 -1.01% down
Russell2000 -1.92% -

 

Technicals & Fundamentals

From Yesterday

“Possible FLU PANDEMIC negatively impacting markets throughout world.”

———

Major Negative Impact of FLU on Stocks

Investors411 Positions - FXI (China) and EWZ (Brazil) are going to take  a hit.

Emerging markets are far more vulnerable to a real or possible flu pandemic. Brazil already has a few people with this strain of flu. Therefore you either exit some positions of buy protection. This may be an over hyped crisis, but right now its better to be safe than sorry. Personally I’m adding some more protection.

As always – don’t make huge massive moves (all in all out) – But  both FXI and EWZ have had a great run over the last six weeks and some protection seems prudent. 

  • EEV is the Ultra Short ETF for the Emerging Markets. (2x short Emerging Markets)
  • FXP is the Ultra Short ETF for China (2x Short China)

Strongly recommend that you take profits or protect assets especially in these areas.  Longer term once these stocks hit a bottom FXI and EWZ should present a great opportunity to buy. 

Obviously related transportation, travel, and commodities (especially hogs – even though you can’t get swine flu from eating hogs) industries will take a hit and here’s an article on  companies that may benefit. From Smart Money – 10 Stocks to Watch in the  Swine Flu Crisis

Sorry  I should have been more aggressive yesterday with this warning

—————-

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose -1.62% Friday in decreased volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF) 

The XFL is consolidating between @ 9.4 & 11.3. XFL closed at 10.76. We are still close to strong resistance level at @ 11.3.  This is the resistance level all Wall Street is watching.

Fed meets today.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

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April 27, 2009

Market Updates Torture (2)

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP? Thanks to all of you who wrote in comments and set the agenda for both SmackDown and Torture; The endemic of tortureaccountability, your comments, definition, & its cost in American lives; Shadow Banks and the Stress test;  Flu Pandemic hits stocks; Major changes at GM;  Market – Technicals & Fundamentals.

TORTURE

-

Definition of Torture

  • The Spanish Inquisition waterboarded and we called it TORTURE (Frank Rich - Link)
  • The Japanese waterboarded (WW 2) We executed those responsible and called it TORTURE (see ewanapt’s comments)
  • The vicious dictator Pol Pot(Cambodia) waterboarded and we called it TORTURE
  • The scum in North Korea waterboarded and we called it TORTURE
  • The Cheney Bush administration waterboarded and we call it ”ENHANCED INTERROGATION TECHNIQUES.’

comm_on_acc.jpg

Commission on Accountability

The endemic and acceptance of torture has dramatically altered the moral character of our nation.

Torture authorized  by the Cheney/Bush administration was not used in one singlular Jack Bauer (TV show 24) moment but instead spread throughout the world.  Authorized torture approved by the government elites – from the 84 ghost prisoners to Gitmo to Abu Ghraib to Afghanistan – flourished throughout the world. See, Andy Worthington’sTen Terrible Truths About Torture

One of the greatest outrages of our time has been the change in America’s character to accept torture. Character and moral values used to be what separated us from Chairman Mao and al Quaeda.

Please join me and others  calling for an independent non partisan commission to examine and publicly report on their findings. See-

Commission on Accountability.org 


  

Dick Cheney

The Overlooked Cost in American Lives

Our use of  Torture killed  a whole lot of Americans “The reason why foreign fighters joined al-Qa’ida in Iraq was overwhelmingly because of abuses at Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib and not Islamic ideology,” says Major Matthew Alexander, who personally conducted 300 interrogations of prisoners in Iraq.”  

Torture and the “unjust” occupation/war in Iraq was the #1 recruiting tool for Islamic terrorists. who have and will kill thousands of Americans. See  ”Torture? It probably killed more Americans than 9/11″ -LINK

STOCKS


Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +1.50% up
NASDQ +2.55% up
S&P500 +1.68% up
Russell2000 +2.60% -

 

Technicals & Fundamentals

Mantra -Forget all about the major indexes - What happens to the shadow banks (financials) absolutely dominates stock  trading.

We are in the second 1/2 of earnings season.

Possible Flu pandemic negatively impacting markets throughout world.

Major changes coming out of GM. They are dropping major lines of cars and more.(breaking)

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose +2.24% Friday in increased volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF) 

The XFL is consolidating between @ 9.4 & 11.3. XFL closed at 10.94. We are moving close to strong resistance level at @ 11.3.  This is the resistance level all Wall Street is watching.

BDI -Baltic Dry (Sea) Index has rebounded. (see BDI chart on side of blog) Translation – world trade is doing better.

Reading the Tea leaves – Stocks are in a tug of war-but the trend looks up. Here’s a CNBC article that agrees with this outlook. Technically we are consolidating, but there has been more upside days in big volume than downside days in big volume. Fundamentally the big event is the May 4th “Stress Test” announcement. Here some more info on the Stress Test.

Fearless Forecast.-  It’s hard to see the FLX break out above the 11.3 resistance level before the “Stress Test” on the shadow banks becomes public. But, at the rate the current administration is caving into the big banks a breakout seems likely after 5/4

 

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

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April 24, 2009

Market Update – Torture

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP – This week a myriad of revelations on TORTURE have exploded. The eruption was centered on the release of a 2002 Bush administration “Torture” Memo.  We are wrestling with questions of greed, torture, an “unjust” war, and what used to be our moral leadership of the “free world.” What will the new tend(s) be?

AbuGhraibAbuse-standing-on-box

Abu Ghraib prison photo

We Don’t Torture

*John Stewart, as usual,  uses humor on a humorless subject to cut to the heart Video Link

* The 2002 Bush administration torture memo authored by Jay Bybee can be found here (its long)

*  Attorney General  Eric Holder in his confirmation hearing defined “water boarding” as torture. His opinion is the one that counts. Don’t remember what he said about other techniques described in memo.

* Does torture work? 3 points of view from – Editorial in Politico

  • Cheney – Yes Period.
  • Obama –  May work sometimes, but shouldn’t be used.
  • Hillary – No Period

* Ali Soufan the FBI supervisory agent, after 7 years, finally broke his silence over “the false claims magnifying the effectiveness of the so-called enhanced interrogation techniques”  See editorial in NYT

* A Torture Timeline – From Foreign Policy (“a web exclusive”) 

 

Iran_couple_1

Photo – Iran torturing Gay’s –  Link - or worse Iraq - Link

Accountability

* Whose going to be held accountable?  Just the lowly flunkies at Abu Ghraib? Already the NYT has called for the impeachment of Jay Bybee.  In the comments section of the blog Popeye seems to want the heads of Cheney, Bush and Rumsfeld on a pole. 

* So what do we do? Is Popeye right?  Obama is tip toeing on the top of a picket fence in avoiding a decision. If Obama falls onto the fence – ouch

  • A hyper political trial in the middle of a world wide economic meltdown
  • Just turn this page in history and forget about it?
  • Nail the lawyers (Bybee and others) and let the rest go?
  • Another solution?

Post YOUR comments at the bottom of the blog (preferable) or send them to me and I’ll post them under anonymous or under an alias.

STOCKS


Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.89% down
NASDQ +0.37% down
S&P500 +0.99% down
Russell2000 -0.87% -

 

Technicals & Fundamentals

Mantra -Forget all about the major indexes - What happens to the shadow banks (financials) absolutely dominates stock  trading.

Earning season continues - 

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose +4.70% in decreased volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF) This leading index is the one to watch.

The XFL is consolidating between @ 9.4 & 11.3. XFL closed at 10.70.

The major fundamental is that the government is going to announce the results of a “Stress Test” on the 19 major shadow banks on May 4th. However, today the Banks start to get the preliminary info.

If all (or almost all) the banks pass the “stress test” it will be looked at as a phony.  If a bunch of banks fail then they will get toasted and others might rise.  This is all very vague and no one knows the criteria for the stress test.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

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April 23, 2009

Market Update – Results from Smack Down

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

What’s Up? – Your Smack Down List- 20, count them, 20 smack downs – you guys are angry – The HULK is on his way; The New Your Times – a phenomenal resource – Charts, graphs and data. Consumer Rights Legislation; Barney Battles Banks; David Brooks on Obamanomics; Tomorrow - Torture


     Your  SMACK DOWN LIST

Investor’s411 is sending THE HULK (Movie version above) to Smack Down the following people, institutions, & concepts that you selected. Instead of 10 Smack Downs YOU came up with 20. To see full list of comments & reasoning scroll down on this link.

  1. Alan Greenspan
  2. Hit & run Drivers
  3. Hezbollah
  4. Hamas
  5. Inflating intelligence
  6. Larry Summers
  7. Ahmadinejad
  8. Bush
  9. Cheney
  10. Rumsfeld
  11. Tortures
  12. Junk mail
  13. trashing the environment
  14. Former Senator Coleman
  15. Minnesota going without representation
  16. MN Governor Pawlenty
  17. those who cut education
  18. those who cut health care
  19. N. Dakota sate legislature
  20. those who discriminate

For those of you who missed out on Smack Down comments or thought we missed something - tomorrow’s #1 topic is TORTURE. There will be another Smack Down List next month.

AP photo Scott Appelwhite 

Consumer Rights Legislation

Barney Frank is leading the major consumer rights bill through congress . You can imagine how hard the Shadow Banks & Credit Card Companies are fighting this bill to aid consumers. Obama meeting with big banks today. NYT story

Say what you want about, Barney Frank, but he like Elizabeth Warren is one of the heroes fighting the big money Shadow Banks. No bank(s) owns Barney Frank The Republicans and many Democrats owned by the big banks killed his efforts for consumers last year. Check out his long but enlightening “Great Economic Hole” Speech of 2/4/09

Why the NYT’s is a Phenomenal Resource

* NYT has a graph and interactive chart telling Where Your $ Bailout Money Has Gone 

* NYT has another chart/outline on Our Government’s Total Bailout Tab

* NYT has another interactive chart on Pay at the Top (CEO’s)

Obamanomics

Obama’s landmark economic speech is reviewed by conservative NYT columnist David Brooks Also see April 15th blog post on Obama’s speech.

Tomorrow TORTURE

This is the #1 topic among the blogs. Want to lead the discussion? Send in your comments below.


STOCKS


Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -1.04% down
NASDQ +0.i4% down
S&P500 -0.77% down
Russell2000 +0.14% -

 

Technicals & Fundamentals

Repeat from yesterday -Forget all about the major indexes - What happens to the shadow banks (financials) absolutely dominates stock  trading.

Earning season continues – Markets have already factored in most of the bad news into this earnings reports. Apple and Ebay did hit earnings home runs. UPS struck out

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose +0.91% in decreased volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF) This leading index is the one to watch.

Short Term Outlook -(again a repeat) Second technical chink in the bulls armor appeared Monday – another big volume sell off.  Volume, the #1 confirmation factor of stock price moves. But Tuesday’s bigger volume (for FLX) means we are one again going up on the roller coaster and gives hopes to bulls.

Too early to make a call on which way this may break, but short term traders should pay attention. The Danger signs to watch for - more big price/volume decline  and/or stocks moving lower on no news or good news. Especially in the XLF

Reading the Tea Leaves - Look for a pull back this week or before the governments “Stress Test” becomes public May 4th. 

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

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April 22, 2009

Market Updates – Smack Down

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

IntroducingSmack Down- A top ten list of  ”toxic” politician’s personalities, groups,  or even ex girl/boy friends that deserve to have a can of whoop ass opened on them; Kissing the Pope’s ring – another Republican apologizes; Have you puked yet? – Roller Coster stock markets; &  Shadow Banks Rule Wall Street.

 

The Hulk from Marvel comics – by Brian Hitch (source Wikipedia)

                     SMACK DOWN

Investors411 has gone to great expense to hire The Hulk to Smack Down anyone or group YOU think deserves to be knocked off his/her pedestal.

Just because this blog focuses on economic trends doesn’t mean you have to. Send your nomination(s) to the comments section of the blog. 

 If you can’t find the comments link at the bottom of this post go to top right of blog and click on “Subscribe to RSS.” A list of previous post will come up and click on one blue headline. An old post will come up and scroll down to comments section. (sorry my trusty tech is still working out the bugs) 

Alan Greenspan – The Jolly Green Giant -(my choice) This guy was put so high on a financial pedestal that it reached up into the clouds. He, more so than anyone else, could have stopped the greedy “free market” shadow banks and others.

Alan Greenspan

The SMACK DOWN LIST

#1 Alan Greenspan

#2

#3

#4

#5

#6

#7

#8

#9

#10

 

                   Kissing The Pope’s  Ring

Another Republican Representative who dared to call the leader of the Republican Party, Rush Limbaugh, something other than his “His Holiness” has genuflected and apologized. All these nabobs of negativism like Limbaugh do is stand and throw stones. The once great Republicans (Party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt etc.) has been reduced to is labeling these hate monger’s as “a great leader of the conservative movement.”

STOCKS

 

 


Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +1.63% flat
NASDQ +2.22% down
S&P500 +2.13% down
Russell2000 +3.88% -

 

Technicals & Fundamentals

Forget all about the major indexes – What happens to the shadow banks (financials) absolutely dominates stock  trading.

Yesterday Tim Geithner played dodge ball in front of Elizabeth Waren’s TARP Oversight Committee. This gave shadow banks hope that all the profits would be privatized and the risk socialized (payed for by taxpayers)

Yesterday was a Geithner rally.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose +7.40% in increased volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF) This leading index is the one to watch.

Short Term Outlook - Second technical chink in the bulls armor appeared Monday – another big volume sell off.  Volume, the #1 confirmation factor of stock price moves. But Tuesday’s bigger volume (for FLX) means we are one again going up on the roller coaster and gives hopes to bulls.

Too early to make a call on which way this may break, but short term traders should pay attention. The Danger signs to watch for - more big price/volume decline  and/or stocks moving lower on no news or good news.

Still bullish in the short term. But think in the longer term, say Sept/Oct (or sooner) – a test of lows could happen.

For tradersIf you really want to gamble – The ETF’s that do 3x what the shadow banks do long – FAS and 3X what financials do short FAZ. This is for those of you who have experience trading covered calls.


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

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April 21, 2009

Market Updates – Major Fraud in Bank Bailout

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Sorry limited time this AM - 20 criminal probes into possible corruption of the $750 billion dollar government bailout have been opened;  Bank of America down 24% after earnings and Financial sector down  11.6% ;  Bears back in control of markets    

 

Kenlewis

Ken Lewis – Head of BOA

Major Fraud Suspected in Bailout

 20 cases of fraud into the $750 billion bailout program are being opened and this may just be the tip of the iceberg. Story from LA TimesCNN MoneyWashington Post/Reuters

Neil Barofsky - chief watchdog of bailout program released a 247 page report yesterday. Basic conclusion –  “TARP is ‘inherently vulnerable to fraud, waste and abuse.”

The report recommends the government abandon its partnership with private sector in buying toxic assets.

Bottom Line - Not good for confidence in stocks, the economy, the government & especially banks. As each case becomes apparent the call for banker’s heads will grow.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

STOCKS

Big 3 to 4+% losses across the board on fears of bank nationalization and poor profits. Big volume. Short term momentum definitely turning negative.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

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April 20, 2009

Market Updates – Bo “Hussein” Obama

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

WHAT’S UP – Bo “Hussein” Obama; Shadow Banks – whose been naughty and whose been nice; Rush Limbaugh = killing cops?!; The only thing standing between shadow banks and pitchforks; Elizabeth Warren under attack; Job loss map; YOUR comments

banks.gif

photo from Washington Note

The Shadow Banks

* Why are community banks paying for the sins of the big shadow banks? Good question – Many were not up to their necks in toxic assets. – MSNBC asks

*Shadow Banks – Whose taken our $. Whose been naughty (hoarding $) and whose been nice (making loans to consumers and companies to get the economy moving again)

  • The Good – State Street Bank
  • The Bad – Citigroup
  • The Ugly – Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (get out the pitchforks!)
  • The chart from WSJ

* ” [Obama administration] is the only thing between you and the pitchforks.” - Barack to shadow bankers.  The Prez & his positions in Fortune magazine

Pittsburgh Police officers attend a memorial service Thursday, ...

Pittsburgh Cops – photo AP

The Right Wing and Killing Cops

For two weeks the controversy has raged over the  right wing wacko’s and those that encourage them. The latest right wing killer/terrorist  was afraid “Obama would limit his guns rights.” This “gun loving maniac” ambushed three Pittsburgh Cops. Story here

You’ve seen it before from abortion clinics to Columbine (10th anniversary of school killings yesterday)

Each day the right wing hate machine stokes the fires inside these killers and fights any curbs on weapons buying.  Naming names of some of those who even want “Obama to fail.” The problem is they dominate and speak for the once great Republican Party.

  • Rush Limbaugh
  • Glenn Beck
  • Michael Savage
  • Bill O’Reilly
  • Sean Hannity

 

Elizabeth Warren is interviewed.

AP Photo

The Shadow Bankers Hit Elizabeth 

Last Friday’s Post featured  TARP Oversight Chair, Elizabeth Warren.  Most likely she’s your greatest hope for some justice when it comes to the shadow banking system. Already, the “Right” Wing is going after her. Politico’s headline story  (Politico is a top & respected political blog)

——–

Steal trillions, hoard your cash, kill cops, give guns to right wing wacko’s, hope Obama fails, attack Elizabeth, but go after the President’s dog and progressive’s will do more than waterboard in retaliation.


Don’t you dare label him Bo “Hussein” Obama

Job Loss Map

Slate has produced a amazing interactive monthly map of where the jobs have been lost. Check out the job loss growth in your area.

Two new Comments Posted by Bob Sadinsky

Check out the passionate remarks on right side of blog. Do you agree?

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

STOCKS


Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.07% up
NASDQ +0.16% up
S&P500 +0.50% up
Russell2000 +1.16% -

 

Technicals & Fundamentals

Major US stock markets inched out a small rally led by shadow banks.

Earnings reports explode this week as many companies step up to the line with results and forecasts.  Watch technology -NASDQ

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose +1.18% in increased, volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog on XLF) This leading index is the one to watch.

Short Term Outlook - a wee bit more positive – First technical chink in the bulls armor appeared Tuesday.’s big volume sell off.  Volume, the #1 confirmation factor rose as stocks inched higher on Friday . 

Too early to make a call on which way this may break, but short term traders should pay attention. The Danger signs to watch for - another big price/volume decline  and/or stocks moving lower on no news or good news.

Still bullish in the short term. But think in the longer term, say Sept/Oct (or sooner) – a test of lows could happen. 

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

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April 17, 2009

Market Updates – Financial Chicken Soup

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Elizabeth Warren?! -  Financial Chicken Soup for Jon Stewart and perhaps our best hope for the future. She oversees TALF – Tempest in a Tea Pot – Nobel prize winner Joe Stigletz with another warning – NASDQ takes the lead – Another Two Faced (see 4/12) Investors411

Elizabeth Warren – Photo from Harvard Law Bulletin

Elizabeth Warren

She’s the head of the oversight committee of the Toxic Asset Relief Program (TALF) Her interview with Jon Stewart is a must for the coming battle over what to do with shadow banks.  There is hope within the Obama administration and this lady is smack dab in the middle of that hope.  

Her money quote “Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell.”  

 Jon Stewart (the best interviewer out there who is unafraid to ask the tough question to power) calls her explanation – “the first time he’s felt better in six month to a year.”  Jon Stewart Video

Please pass this video on to your friends. Obama took 45 minutes on April 14th to explain the same thing in detail – she gives the same hope in 4.5 minutes

Tempest in a Teapot

The far right, on the 15th had an anti-tax tea bag demonstrations across the USA. These demonstrations were endlessly promoted 0n right wing radio & FOX  News.

 According to one well known far right organizer Grover Norquist they had only 268,000 demonstrators.  This pales in comparison to many single location demonstrations like the million man march on Washington.   Again a Jon Stewart Video

One point these  folks have is deficits are bad. But their only answer to everything is cut taxes. Obama was right to cut taxes in a recession on all but the wealthiest of Americans as part of a stimulus plan. The left wing Huffington Post cherry picked some of the worst of these demonstrations (scroll down for slide show)

Joe Stigletz

Nobel Prize winner Joe Stigletz again warns “The Obama administration’s bank- rescue efforts will probably fail because the programs have been designed to help Wall Street rather than create a viable financial system” See Bloomberg news article

 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

STOCKS


Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +1.19% down
NASDQ +2.68% up
S&P500 +1.55% flat
Russell2000 +2.76% -

 

Technicals & Fundamentals

Major US stock markets (and most foreign markets) rose yesterday in mixed volume. The NASDQ continues to lead the other markets (see Positions section of blog - QLD)

 The NASDQ (tech) Russell 2000 (small caps) for the 2nd or 3rd time lead other major indexes and even the XFL. This recent  rotation of leadership is bullish for stocks.

XLF - The ETF that tracks financials (mostly shadow banks) rose +2.13% in increased, below average volume.  Financials have lead this rally and if they  collapse so will almost all other sectors (see Positions section of blog XLF)

Short Term Outlook - Similar forecast to yesterday – First technical chink in the bulls armor appeared Tuesday.’s big volume sell off. A small gain yesterday in decreased volume is not bullish.  

Too early to make a call, but short term traders should pay attention. The Danger signs to watch for - another big price/volume decline  and/or stocks moving lower on no news or good news.

Still bullish in the short term. But think in the longer term, say Sept/Oct – a test of lows could happen. 

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog 

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING! 

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