Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
July 27, 2009

Market Updates – Summer Break

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Investors411 on Hiatus for the Week

Will Return Aug 3rd.

Overwhelmed with business deadlines and grandkids so just a short overview today.

Health Care

The single best argument I’ve heard for Public Heath Care is virtually all other industrialized democracies have a public heath care plan of some sort. If these plans are so inferior why have the voters NOT changed back to a private  plans? These plans may not be great but they provided statistically verifiable better results at a cheaper price.

Many folks in every country can tell you some horror stories about their heath care plan. Like the 58 year old nurse in front of the US Congress last week. She was denied coverage for a double mastectomy because she had a skin rash some months previously. Even though her dermatologist (MD) pleaded that it had nothing to do with her breast cancer she was denied coverage.

We enjoy Harvard Community Health Plan. A plan that is constantly rated "best" or one of the best in the nation. The problem is it keeps going up in price 5 to 10% a year. Thank God I’ll be able to qualify for Medicare (public health care) in a few years, because the premiums are going through the roof.

If Republican’s and those who oppose change cared why did they do nothing over the entire course of the Bush administration?

NYT outlined some of the benefits that changing health care offers here

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.26% down
NASDQ -0.39 % down
S&P500 +0.30% down
Russell2000 +0.48% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

The NASDQ is the only major index significant multi day volume confirmation of its price move.

Earnings season begins to wind down. While many companies are increasing profits by cost cutting, there are some major companies that are actually increasing revenue and profits.  Intel started this ball rolling.

Off had, I do not remember US markets being this over bought.

Besides earnings here is one Business site on various positive indicators.

Bernanke has a Town Hall meeting (First time ever for Fed Chair) Defended stimulus package and unemployment peaks at @10% early next year.  If government had not interviened there would have been another great depression.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . The rate of decline flattened toward the end of the week. Bullish sign We have had a series of lower lows and lower highs since early June. We have a way to do before we establish a new low (see yesterday’s update).

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term Bullish pattern could be starting
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

.

$USD - The Dollar went down and tested its major support level all last week . The last remaining support level is the June lows at @78.4. The dollar index closed at 78.75 . Breaking this support would be very bearish for the dollar and bullish for stocks.

Fearless Forecast

The FF struck out last week. As Investors411 saw the rally taking a breather in the second half of the week. We rallied into the weekend. Technically conditions are still way overbought . So some kind of stabilization is predicted again this week. We are in a rally and this rally is now in danger of going elliptical. Up too far too fast. This would mean a big crash and burn.

The dollar slipping (closing) below $78.4 would certainly move stocks higher. Dollar at 78.46 this AM in pre market trading.

Buy the dips of trending sectors.

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on "Positions" at top of blog). Check it out

Buy the dips of recommended ETF’s (see Positions)

Hopefully you were "stopped out" of the suggested FAS short position. (see Wednesday’s Update) If not tighten stops. Consider EWY (South Korea) on dip.


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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July 22, 2009

Market Updates – The Great Tax Con Job.

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Note: Last Investors411 for the week.

Health Care, Obama and Leadership

Obama

Huffington Post Photo

Does anyone really know what Obama’s heath care plan is? NO. Unlike Hillary over a decade ago he has set broad goals – he wants to save Money. Congress has come up with a slew of different plans. Perhaps this attempt at consensus building is the best way to achieve results. After all Hillary Clinton failed.

However, the best way to show leadership is simply to lead.  Congress is fighting like chickens in a hen house over health care, each individual and side protecting her/his specific interests. The powerful interest groups who want NO change are spending huge amounts of $ to shoot down reforms health care. It’s a waste of time to go on TV to defend a non existent plan that has no concrete structure.

Obama set a charismatic vision and followed though in his campaign for president. American’s back someone who leads and right now all Obama is doing in health care is following.

Stats on Tax Rates

10% on income between $0 and $8,025

15% on the income between $8,025 and $32,550;

25% on the income between $32,550 and $78,850;

28% on the income between $78,850 and $164,550;

33% on the income between $164,550 and $357,700;

35% on the income over $357,700.

15% on investment income

For single individuals – From the Fed tax tables

An interesting editorial by Tohm Hartman called The Great Tax Con Job is worth reading. One interesting point he makes is that both times we had massive tax cuts for the wealthy they ultimately lead to a period of growing over speculation and collapse.

  • Massive tax cut in 1920 from 73% to 25% led to the roaring 20′s and the Great Depression
  • A 70% to 90% tax rate from 1930 to 1980 on the uber wealthy lead to America becoming the strongest economic power on the planet.
  • A Reagan tax cut from 74% to 38%, later followed by cuts on investment income, and another 3% cut led to the biggest meltdown since the Great Depression.

There are some mitigating factors, but the bottom line is clear a culture that focuses on  giving massive breaks to the wealth does NOT prosper


STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.77% down
NASDQ +0.36 % up
S&P500 +0.36% up
Russell2000 -0.33% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

All the major US indexes are screaming OVERBOUGHT conditions. You can only go up so many days in a row. Only the NASDQ has shown  some moderate volume behind the move higher. This increased volume acts as confirmation of the trend.

The major US indexes have all reached new closing highs, except for small caps (the Russell 2000 is almost there) This does set up a longer or mid term bullish trend for stocks.

Check out on the bottom of the charts for the major indexes ( see list on side of blog) the CMF (Chalkin MONEY FLOW) We are over 3 standard deviations away from the mean. ( the green color is above 0.3) This is about as overbought as markets gets without some kind of reversal.

Fundamentals (earnings reports) have driven this rally.  At first company’s like Intel surprised. Others followed, but now that surprise is built into stock prices. Last night AAPL (Apple Computer) hit another grand slam home run earnings report. More here


Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern . The rate of decline increased on the BDI yesterday.  We have had a series of lower lows and lower highs since early June. We have a way to do before we establish a new low (see yesterday’s update), but we definitely have a momentum change. Bears are gaining momentum

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term - Bullish
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

Here’s an ominous forecast on global trade from the Director General of the World Bank. – Pascal Lamy.

$USD - The Dollar went down and tested its major support level yesterday.  It held. Dollar ended up flat +0.04% . The last remaining support level is the June lows at @78.4. The dollar index closed at 78.90 . Breaking this support would be very bearish for the dollar and bullish for stocks.

Conclusions

The “Fearless Forecast” predicted a down week because we are overbought.  Now we are way overbought , the BDI has turned negative and the dollar stopped dropping at its support level. Technically everything is turning negative. Bears are growling

Both the dollar and the BDI are the indexes to watch. If the rate of fall in the BDI increases – take more $ off the table. No one ever went broke taking profits.

Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on “Positions” at top of blog). Check it out

IFN - (India)  Sold entire position yesterday. Gain @ + 3.5% See Positions section of blog.

FAS – Perhaps the third time is the charm. Last two times (see Positions) Investors411 took defensive position we got burned. Opening a small position (2.5%) in FAS (3X short the financial sector) Overbought markets & BDI falling call for some caution.


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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July 21, 2009

Market Updates – Globalization & Debt

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Debt/Globalization


barr-july-1951

From the Editor


Debt is  bad. Globalization, and economic planing has led some countries to grow and others to suffer. Take a look at China and South Korea . Their managed economies (as opposed to our free market economy) have prospered over the last decade and continue to have stock markets that that are outperforming ours again this year.  In both these countries you see 10′s of millions of people who tended rice paddies a generation ago becoming the computer programmers and manufacturers of today.

These economies severely restricted their imports and benefited from other countries going into debt buying their exports. – part of globalization and managed capitalism. The USA went trillions of dollars into debt buying their products ( add some other countries especially those that sold oil) over the 8 year Bush administration.

Some companies and wealthy individuals grew rich in the USA as we personally and as a government fell further into debt running our unregulated free market system. This all collapsed when adding to this debt we discovered that shadow financial institutions were running a giant ponzi scheme of fake profits called credit default swaps on home mortgages, and other forms of credit.

Baddaboom, we almost had a world wide economic meltdown when just one shadow bank, Lehman Brothers,  collapsed. The cumulative debt hole is enormous.

Historically, in good times and wars (Iraq) you are supposed to pay down debt. We didn’t.

Historically in bad times you stimulate the economy and this does add to debt. We are.  The problem is that we re already up to our necks in debt. This debt was is not as bad as the debt that flatlined the world’s #2 economy for over a decade, but its very bad. To this you add a shrinking work base caused by globalization.

The real problem is we are sending more of our citizens to the rice paddies (unemployment) and our companies to maximize their profits send jobs overseas. This is one major part of the globalization mega trend.

We have fortunately seen a decrease in job loss since January from about 700,000+ in January to 500,000+ now. A good trend, but still a big loss. When many small companies reaches a certain size, (let’s guess 50 people)  they realize that everything from bookkeeping to information technology can be done for a cheaper price abroad. Where are the new jobs going to come from?

So simply as an Investment adviser – You’re far better off with economically growing managed capitalism rather than debt ridden free market of the USA – This is why Investors411 has a record of beating the S&P 500 . Why FXI, EWZ, EWS , and other managed economies are better investment choices.

The catch 22 – Of course, the more a US company outsources the better it will do (cheaper labor cuts cost), but the greater unemployment here will grow here

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +1.19% down
NASDQ +1.20 % up
S&P500 +1.14% down
Russell2000 +1.49% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals and Fundamentals

The leading NASDQ again moved higher in increased volume. Even though it was not above average volume, the increase coupled with the break down of the dollar (-o.84% )(see below) is bullish for stocks.

Other major indexes have reached new closing highs, but have NOT had as much volume behind their moves higher.

Obviously US markets are now overbought and need a breather

Bernanke reports to the House today and the Senate tomorrow.

Whole bunch of companies reporting this AM. These fundamentals will drive stocks. Merck , DuPont, Coke , UTX. & Caterpillar all seem to have better than expected earnings. So many major S&P companies are hitting doubles triples and home runs. Rally is on again

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern. The BDI turned lower yesterday and the short term bullish pattern is getting wiped out. Longer term this is not good for the global recession recovery. BDI at 3511 and 2975 is the line in the sand support level that must hold . So no reason to throw in the towel yet but Bears are gaining momentum

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term - Bullish
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

$USD - The Dollar broke down through support levels yesterday . Down a significant-0.84% . The last remaining support level is the June lows at @78.4. The dollar index closed at 78.87 . The dollar goes down usually = stocks gold and oil prices rise. This contributed to yesterday’s rally. Obviously this is bearish for the dollar, but Bullish for US stocks. (not small but important one word change – this is bullish for US stocks in the short/mid term)

That 78.4 support level is very important.  A weak dollar does have its downside, but it certainly fueled the last rally stocks had this spring.


Positions

The whole Positions Section has been revised (Click on "Positions" at top of blog). Check it out

QLD – (2X what the NASDQ 100 does) which was bought at 38.2 was sold at 41.1 for a 7+% gain yesterday.  Why be greedy? We added a lot of positions last week. (QLD, IFN, EWZ, EWS ) Time to take profits on one.  Will buy back in on another dip. Taking profits now looks like a mistake . If the dollar keeps breaking down OLD will keep going up.

IFN - (India) The technicals behind this trade are just not as good at all the other trades. India has not broken out to a higher high and developed a series of lower highs and lower lows. Going to take profits. – Will put in what’s called a stop sell order (send me an email if you do not understand this)  Looking at S Korea (EWY ) as a better foreign investment.

Another reason to sell India is the BDI seems to be establishing a bearish pattern. (see above)


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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July 20, 2009

Market Updates – World’s Best Known Economist?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Perhaps the World’s Best Known Economist

Joe Stiglitz – Photo John Thys/AFP/Getty Images

Joe Stiglitz “is cited by more economists than any one else in the world” Stiglitz is an “economic prophet” and Nobel laureate who predicted the current economic meltdown. Investors411 has for years been quoting Stiglitz starting with the true trillion dollar cost of the Iraq war.

So why is the Obama administration ignoring this Nobel Prize winner? This is one of the major stories in this week’s Newsweek and can be found here .

Paul Krugman , another  Economic Nobel Prize winner goes even further here

Instead of surrounding himself with some progressive economists who warned of upcoming economic meltdowns, Obama has surrounded himself with a Goldman Sach’s crew featuring Larry Summers who participated in building the economic mess.Remember,  Goldman Sach’s, who was a prime mover in creating the economic mess and  took both bailout & Fed money, had a huge positive earnings surprise this quarter.

Health Care

Aides say the president will embark on

Photo – WaPo

Jim DeMint the Republican Senator from S. Carolina who considers the Obama government “national socialist” (a nazi – like Hitler’s Germany ) says the right wing will use the health care debate to “Break Obama.” Story here

He’s right about the break Obama part.  If health care reform does not get off the ground this summer (some form passes both House and Senate) it will die because unemployment will rise before it falls. This will put Obama in a far weaker position.

It’s time for Obama to stop worrying about consensus building in congress and to start playing hardball.  WaPo on Obama’s next move Hardball?

Your Comments

Popeye adds some more information about the secret  fundamentalist group behind US politicians (see Thursday’s post & comments to the left) – The Family . You can find out a whole lot more here As you might have already guessed this group has strong links to Sarah Palin .

But it not the obviously hypocritical ties to the three adulterous  Republican politicians that is most ominous. It is the past ties and philosophy of this secret group and their allies that is even more significant. (more later)

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.37% down
NASDQ +0.08 % down
S&P500 -0.04% down
Russell2000 -0.54% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

We did have the best week in many moons for stocks . We did take out a resistance level on the benchmark S&P 500. We did have one day of strong volume confirming the price move.

However, after big gains like last week, technically, overbought markets need some rest. That plus the SPX is at 940 and this year’s high/major support level is 956.  We may appraoch this level, but the bulls need a rest. Hard to see other companies come in with the earnings results of Shadow Banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Bearish momentum.

The NASDQ did close at a new high for the year and this certainly creates a Bullish pattern. Biggest fundamental of the week is Microsoft’ s earnings report and Apple also could give overbought index some bullish momentum.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) The big gains at the beginning of the weakened Thursday and more on Friday. It looks like we could be forming another lower high and that would reinforce the mid term bearish pattern. Remember, this index usually moths a lot smoother and turns more slowly than other indexes. It hasn’t turned yet but Bears seem to be gaining momentum

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term - Bullish
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

$USD - The Dollar is on the verge of falling down through in its in its 5+ week long consolidation pattern between $79+ and 81+. It did briefly break its support level but rallied Friday. Dollar closed up 0.32 at $79.51.-

Fearless Forecast For the Week

Last Week’s Fearless Forecast – So expect a rise with some financial stocks reporting early in the week and that rally to get tempered later in the week This happened, but Investors411 failed to predict the magnitude of the rally till after Intel’s earnings.

This Weeks Fearless Forecast – Technically overbought markets need a rest . 30 to 40% of Dow & S&P report this week and it would be surprising to see as many positive earnings reports as last week.  Therefore, most likely a down week. But because the NASDQ broke out and created a higher high, we could see another shot at moving higher later this summer. It looks like bearish pattern developing on BDI. If so, this is trouble.

Positions

The whole Positions sections has been revised (Click on “Positions” at top of blog). Check it out

QLD – which was bought independently of “the Hedge” at 38.2 last week will get sold today . QLD closed at 40.47 Friday – why be greedy. We added a lot of positions last week. (QLD, IFN, EWZ, EWS ) Time to take profits on one.  Will buy back in on another dip.

The Hedge – The SDS part is down -3.44% and the QLD part up +5.51% The net gain is +2.07% We are hoping that the QLD outpreforms the SDS.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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July 16, 2009

Market Updates – THE Secret Cult

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

"The Family"



THE FAMILY – The Secret Fundamentalist Group at the Heart of American Power - is the title of a New Book by Jeff Sharlet.

This group of Congressmen and Senators has met secretly for decades and has a "C Street House" in DC where some members actually live. They believe that "they were chosen by God not the people for their leadership positions" They are " a Christian Mafia" that are answerable to each other and not the voters. Hillary Clinton has actually praised their leader Doug Coe .

Some high profile events besides Sharlet’ s book (who lived with this group for a year) have blown their cover.

  • Philandering Governor Mark Sanford (R. SC) is a member of this group
  • Philandering Senator John Esign (R. NV) is a member of the group
  • Congressman Zach Wamp (R. TN) has recently partly broken the code of silence

When The Family members talk about accountability, they talk about accountability to this invisible group not to the voters. This is NOT democracy. The Family has existed for decades and was "deeply involved with lots of the death squads in Central Americas."

Rachel Maddow has an expose on the cracking the cover of this secret, mysterious, powerful, christian, fundamentalist cult who have secretly spread their tentacles throughout the world  here (video)

NPR also has interview with Jeff Sharlet here

Jeff Sharlet has his own site here

Your Comments

Check out the comments by Bob Sadinsky & "Confused Investor." on the comments section of blog.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +3.07% up
NASDQ +3.51 % up
S&P500 +2.96% up
Russell2000 +3.85% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Markets exploded  higher in increased above average volume. Not quite kick ass volume, but decent volume, especially for the NASDQ. Finally volume confirming Bull’s Rule.

The benchmark S&P 500 broke through a resistance level and finished at 932 . The last resistance level is 956 – this year’s high. The NASDQ also financial broke a resistance level and ended the day at 1862 , The NASDQ high for the year is 1880 . Now reasonable to expect that this year’s high will be challenged – Bullish sign.

Financials/Shadow Banks are probably going to continue their charmed existence, because t he Obama administration & the Fed has deemed the big ones too big to fail and they keep kicking the can down the road on any major fix of the problems that created the economic meltdown. The NYT did an editorial on this (see yesterday’s updates) Yes fixing the problem could have a negative short term impact on financial stocks, but everyone would be better off with a more transparent & ethical banking/financial system in the long run.

All of this rally is probably a false sense of security, because the fundamentals that created the problems have not been fixed. But for now ride the momentum .

After Intel’s fundamentals surprised investors, the next two stocks to look at are Google & IBM. They report after the closing bell. Alcoa (commodities) was the first to surprise, but markets did nothing. Now investors are  expecting a better than average earnings reports from these two tech giants. If we get decent numbers or forecasts (it does not have to be a "grand slam,") the tech rally should get extended.

JP Morgan reported earlier today and did well.  Few expect other banks to have the blowout numbers that Goldman Sachs had.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) A massive 6+% gain on top of yesterday’s significant 3+% gain. So the prediction on Monday about a bullish turn has come true again.  Price rise here is bullish for stocks across the world. Bulls Rule – gaining momentum.

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term - Bullish
  • mid term Bearish pattern
  • long term - Bullish pattern

$USD - The Dollar is on the verge of falling down through in its in its 5+ week long consolidation pattern between $79+ and 81+. Dollar closed at $79.40.

—–

Monday’s Fearless Forecast for week So expect a rise with some financial stocks reporting early in the week and that rally to get tempered later in the week Intel surprise is a strong fundamentally Bullish factor

Changing Long Term Outlook back to NEUTRAL – Both the BDI (world trade) and technology are green shoots

Our Positions

Personally I’m adding to positions early this AM and/or on any dips. (5% to 10%) addition .

  • Added another 2.5% to INF (see positions section at top of blog)
  • Added 5% to QLD (see positions)
  • For those traders (not longer term Investors) who bought recommended FAS made over +11% yesterday. This could go higher,  but no one went broke taking profits. So either set a 5% stop below current price or sell. I took profits at Adding the the close yesterday.

Adding another 5 to 10% today on any dip. Next two positions to be added on small dips.

  • EWZ had huge volume behind its rally yesterday
  • EWS (Singapore) NEW ETF not previously discussed. This market has outperformed all other major markets. It sits smack dab in the middle of trade routes and has a huge port facility. It is on the verge of breaking out of a multi month consolidation pattern.

If Google & IBM fail to deliver we can temper this move back into stocks.

From Yesterday – Rally ho

Note to Confused Investor (see comments on left hand side of blog) – Will clean up the Positions section this weekend. You’re right. Remember this is just one person writing, editing and publishing this blog.  Please allow for some foot dragging and especially poor grammar.

Note change in Long Term Outlook up ANOTHER level to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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July 15, 2009

Market Updates – Change in Long Term Outlook

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

-

Financing Health Care

Nancy Pelosi


Here’s the "Pelosi" or House Plan costs It has a direct impact on 1.2% of Americans.

  • 1% increase on those earning over 280K to 500k
  • 1.5% increase on those earning 500k to 1 million
  • 5.4% increase on those earnings over 1 million.

The nuts and bolts (lower costs & greater choices) of the plan explained here

Bottom Line – The growing income inequality is one of the major economic problems that has done  seriously harm to this nation.  No matter what you feel about this imperfect plan the Republicans had 8 years and did nothing while health care prices skyrocketed. The Democrats and Obama are moving in the right direction.

Knowing that heath care costs are covered, 10′s of millions of Americans will be more likely to spend money.

Sotomayor Hearings

Sotomayor

The Supreme court has become a highly charged political entity. The 5-4 vote for President Bush in 2000 proved this beyond any doubt.

So naturally the Sotomayor hearings are a circus of political correctness. The OWMP (Old White Men’s Party) or Republican’s are further alienating themselves from America’s growing non white community by going  after an eminently qualified Hispanic women jurist. In the NYT Maureen Dowd has a column appropriately  entitled "White Man’s Last Stand" here

Waiting Game

Obama

Huffington Post photo

The NYT has an editorial that reflects similar views of Investors411 over these past month. Why is the Obama administration waiting to act on some critical economic factors? See editorial here

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.33% down
NASDQ +0.36 % down
S&P500 +0.53% down
Russell2000 +0.56% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Markets moved slightly higher after Monday’s big gains in reduced volume. A Bullish confirmation signal

Financials are probably going to continue their charmed existence, because t he Obama administration & the Fed has deemed the big ones too big to fail and they keep kicking the can down the road on any major fix of the problems that created the economic meltdown.

Intel’s earnings report  was a grand slam . Intel is the mother of all chip stocks and chips are the picks and shovels of technology. Therefore, this is a fundamental sign that technology is full of "green shoots," (green shoots is an overused term that of signs the recession is receding) At least technology is one sector of the worldwide economy moving forward.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) As predicted for the last two days the BDI has turned back and yesterday mover significantly (3+%)  higher. So the prediction on Monday about a bullish turn has come true.  Bulls Rule momentum

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term - turning bullish
  • mid termclear bearish pattern
  • long term - bullish pattern

$USD - The Dollar is still comfortably in its in its 5+ week long consolidation pattern between $79+ and 81+.

—–

Monday’s Fearless Forecast for week So expect a rise with some financial stocks reporting early in the week and that rally to get tempered later in the week Intel surprise is a strong fundamentally Bullish factor

Changing Long Term Outlook back to NEUTRAL – Both the BDI (world trade) and technology are green shoots

Our Positions

Intel earnings positively impact four positions

  • IFN – India We outsource much of our technology to India.
  • QLD – This in its own right (not part of the "the Hedge" trade) becomes a buy the dip trading opportunity again
  • FXI – Benefits less directly. But anything that helps the US helps China more.
  • The Hedge – This should certainly help the QLD or tech part of this trade.

Personally I’m adding to positions early this AM and/or on any dips. (5% to 10%) addition.

This doesn’t mean that the worldwide recession is out of the woods – there are some long term problems that are no where near solved – but Intel’s news and the BDI turn should really  juice stocks.  The benchmark S&P 500 is at 905 and the next resistance level is 930 then the yearly high of 956. Rally ho

Note change in Long Term Outlook up ANOTHER level to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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July 14, 2009

Market Updates – Michael Jackson

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Michael Jackson

Michael Jackson

Photo – Huffington Post

Jackson’s memorial service ("a variety show with a coffin") was carried by 19 networks and seen by 31.1 million viewers. Chris Hedge’sThe Man in The Mirror editorial has an enlightening view of American culture it begins like this.

"I n celebrity culture we destroy what we worship. The commercial exploitation of Michael Jackson’s death was orchestrated by the corporate forces that rendered Jackson insane. Jackson, robbed of his childhood and surrounded by vultures that preyed on his fears and weaknesses, was so consumed by self-loathing he carved his African-American face into an ever-changing Caucasian death mask and hid his apparent pedophilia behind a Peter Pan illusion of eternal childhood. He could not disentangle his public and his private self. He became a commodity, a product, one to be sold, used and manipulated. He was infected by the moral nihilism and personal disintegration that are at the core of our corporate culture. And his fantasies of eternal youth, delusions of majesty, and desperate, disfiguring quests for physical transformation were expressions of our own yearning. He was a reflection of us in the extreme…"

You can read the whole editorial here

Chris Hedges is author of "Empire of Illusion: The End of Literacy and the Triumph of  Spectacle."

Iran

Friday could be an important day in the country that now has more jailed journalist than any other county. Rafsanjani , who is not an Ahmadinejad backer, is leading Friday prayers and the opposition has promised to flood the area. Story here

Huffington Post’s Nico Pitn ey still #1 in coverage here

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +2.27% up
NASDQ +2.12 % up
S&P500 +2.49% up
Russell2000 +2.56% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

Note - Repeated statements in brown.

Markets staged a big time rally and volume increased, but it was still not above average. The major technical question becomes can we break the series of lower highs and lower lows? We have held and formed a strong support level at SPX 875 . The S&P closed at 901 and we need to close above @ 930 to take out the lower high or major resistance level.

After falling, as predicted, to the S&P 875 support level, the bulls have reinforced the barricades and held their position for the last two days.  The longer they hold out the stronger the bulls position becomes. Here come the bulls led by financial stocks that have been soaping up low interest money from the Fed and TARP programs. Loans are not pouring out of these institutions to struggling homeowners, but they are making a killing on the loans they do make, the government bonds and derivatives they sell/insure.  Not having mark to market accounting allows them  special accounting methods other institutions do not have.

Financials are probably going to continue their charmed existence, because t he Obama administration & the Fed has deemed the big ones too big to fail and they keep kicking the can down the road on any major fix of the problems that created the economic meltdown. Financials led yesterday’s rally  XLF up +6.4% – Increased, above average volume indicates Bulls Rule – rally to continue in financials.

Mea Culpa – The amount of the rally in financials has caught me a little off guard. I thought all the traders were already long this sector and the rally would be about 2 to 3+% not 6+%.

Earnings season is off to a good start. But technically markets were oversold and the 875 level held. Fundamentally, Still looking for Intel (reports after closing) to set the tone.

Intel’s earnings report (after the bell today) is still the key to any breakout. US markets have started to move higher on good news  So momentum is with the bulls

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) . BDI fell for the 9th day in a row.  However, the rate of decline has slowed dramatically & more each day  This chart works a little different from most other charts in that it is a lot smoother and less volatile. The fact that the decline rate has dramatically narrowed is a positive for bulls

Unfortunately, over the last six weeks we have a series of lower high, lower lows, and a broken support level. That’s positive for bears. Over the last six months we have dramatically risen off the lows – Long term Positive for bulls

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term - seems to be turning bullish (emphasis on seems )
  • mid termclear bearish pattern
  • long term - bullish pattern

$USD - The Dollar is still comfortably in its in its 5+ week long consolidation pattern between $79+ and 81+.

—–

Fearless Forecast So expect a rise with some financial stocks reporting early in the week and that rally to get tempered later in the week

Our Positions

The Hedge Still little change in overall position QLD -5.11% and SDS +5.89% = a gain of +0.79% This trade may take a months to reach a 5% to 10% gain/loss.

Alternative Energy GEX/PBW – Now completely out of this sector and looking for a way back in or a buy the dip opportunity. There are several fundamental factors going on here. Most importantly it looks like oil prices are moving lower and that will hurt alternative energy.  If we have a significant summer rally oil prices and alternative energy could rise and we will miss out on some potential gains.

Financials - For traders (not investors) there is potential buy the dip opportunities in the ultra long ETF’s not XLF but UYG (@2x XLF) and FAS (@3x ELF)

Foreign ETF’s Still would like to see a bit more of a dip to buy more FXI, EWZ & IFN . For a short time, momentum may swing back to US equities, but the long term trend is clearly with these growing economies.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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July 13, 2009

Market Update – Taking Action

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Financing Health Care

Poll/chart from Fivethirtyeight

Last week VP Biden announced $155 billion savings in health care with hospitals to help defray the cost of Obama’s heath care plan. This was a giant first step in financing heath care reform. Story here . The $155 billion story was a blip compared to our Michael Jackson/Sarah Palin media obsession.

When has any administration since LBJ come up with $155 billion in health care savings?

Perhaps the best analyzer of polls out there, Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight blog) has come out with a poll showing the way 68% of Americans want to finance health care reform. - Increase taxes on income earners over $250K, Increase alcohol taxes, increase cigarette taxes. See data above and a great analysis of health care reform here

So why isn’t this legislation popular among our Senators and Congressmen? So many are bought and sold by the health care industry.

The latest to get caught in influence peddling was a media outlet the venerable Washington Post. CEO’s and health care officials were among those invited to a sit down with the WaPo and administration officials for $25,000 to $250,000. This meeting blew up when it became public. Story here

If you sit back and do nothing health care costs will continue to rise over 100% a decade.  We will continue be, by far, the most expensive system and 30th to 40th when compared to other nations health care systems on results.

You can either sick your head in the sand, keep getting mesmerized by Michael Jackson/Sarah Palin or do something. Call your Congress person and your Senator. Join a group that promotes reform. I certainly am a critic many of Obama’s decisions, but I’m have no problem in pushing this cause

You can make a difference. But you have to stand and fight . The only way they win is if you do nothin g . Make the call, join the group or donate some $. NOW

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.45% down
NASDQ +0.20 % down
S&P500 -0.40% down
Russell2000 +0.36% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

Note - Repeated statements in brown.

After falling, as predicted, to the S&P 875 support level, the bulls have reinforced the barricades and held their position for the last two days.  The longer they hold out the stronger the bulls position becomes.

Volume our #1 forecasting tool has been almost totally useless.

Earnings week usually trumps everything else - Perhaps the biggest report is Intel on Tuesday. If the tech giant ‘s forecast is positive we could see a rally continue. Financials are probably going to continue their charmed existence, because the Obama administration has deemed the big ones too big to fail and they keep kicking the can down the road on any major fix of the problems that created the economic meltdown.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) . BDI fell for the 8th day in a row.  However, the rate of decline has slowed dramatically.  This chart works a little different from most other charts in that it is a lot smoother and less volatile. The fact that the decline rate has dramatically narrowed is a positive for bulls

Unfortunately, over the last six weeks we have a series of lower high, lower lows, and a broken support level. That’s positive for bears. Over the last six months we have dramatically risen off the lows – Long term  Positive for bulls

In a nut shell the BDI is

  • short term  - seems to be turning bullish (emphasis on seems )
  • mid term – clear bearish pattern
  • long term - bullish pattern

$USD - The Dollar is still in its in its 5+ week long consolidation pattern between $79+ and 81+.

—–

Fearless Forecast for the Wee k

From Last week The S&P resistance level (@875 & SPX now at 896 )  should at least get challenged, especially in the beginning of the week. Watch BDI. Forecast – Bears Rule Investors411 shot and scored on last week’s forecast.

This Week’s fearless forecast Remember this is reading tea leaves. So far investors have not reacted well (buying or pushed stocks higher) to some reasonably good news last week. There is a bias with the bears The bulls support level (SPX @875) gets stronger each day it holds.

The bottom line comes down to the mother of all chip stocks Intel’s  earnings forecast . Financials are going to do well (under the Fed’s Obama administration’s protection) The BDI looks like it may be turning higher. Both bulls and bears have some powerful weapons right now as stated above.

So when it come down to "there is no clear direction " you manage risk. If support levels fall for the bulls there is a big chance for a big fall. Good news has not pushed markets higher in the last week, so it looks like there will be no huge rally.

Often the bottom line is "Don’t loose money." – So Investors411 is just going to hold tight. We’ve sold a lot of positions recently and will have to play this day by day. If Intel rallies Investors411 will add to portfolio. Also a buy the dip opportunity may arise.

Fearless Forecast – So expect a rise with some financial stocks reporting early in the week and that rally to get tempered later in the week


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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July 10, 2009

Market Updates – Barack the Barbarian

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

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Barack The Barbarian

Picked up my copy of “Barack the Barbarian” with my grandson at the local comic book store yesterday. “You betcha” I choose the copy with the scantily clad Red Sarah on the cover. Opening scene – A  better than buff with loin cloth and boots Obama riding a blue donkey - “into a place where the interest of a wealthy few were placed before the interests of the needful many.”

For more including bigger photos click here

The CIA Lied

Leon Panetta

This should come as no shock. CIA director Leon Panetta has admitted that the CIA lied to Congress about the war in Iran. More here

No surprise here. The whole Cheney/Bush continually lied about the “unjust” Iran war (“unjust” was the term used by the Sec. General of the UN and pretty much the rest of the world)

Californification – Why Referendum’s Suck.

By far California has the deepest fiscal problem of any state . Californian’s are pointing and blaming a whole lot of people from the “Governator” on down.  But they have only themselves to blame or more specifically their referendum system. I’m not specifically singling out people in California, because most people will vote their self interest in any referendum and few look at the big picture.

Just a few example of how California went broke through referendums.

  • Prop 13 – Your property is valued at the time you bought it – So, two simialar houses one bought 30 years ago is worth sometimes 80% less than the  similar property bought today = Huge shortfall in revenue.
  • State legislators need a 2/3 vote to make any changes in taxes. (one of two states with this law)
  • All residence are given tuition free admission to state colleges.

Actually this is strikingly similar to the US government. Over the last ten years our federal government similarly voted to let capitalism have almost  no regulations, ran trillions dollar wars, created huge trade deficits, and instituted new spending programs while reducing taxes.

Iran

photo from Truthdig

Another day of demonstrations in Iraq.  Protestors shouting Allah Acbar from rooftops at night in defiance of the government.  Nico Pitney at Huffington Post & Andrew Sullivan (scroll down) at Atlantic carry lots of videos.

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.06% down
NASDQ +0.31% down
S&P500 +0.35% down
Russell2000 -0.09% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

As predicted at the beginning of the week we are already challenging the major support level. We did stay above the mega 875 support level on the benchmark S&P 500 yesterday. Technically – a short term bullish sign.

Earnings season around the corner.

Another major forecasting tool is how markets/stocks react to news.

  • Yesterday the first company to report was Alcoa Aluminum with better than expected news.
  • The Dollar fell dramatically
  • Unemployment figure for the week fell dramatically.

This was a lot of good news and US stock markets went nowhere. = Bear’s Rule

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

Note - Repeated statements in brown.

The BDI has become the best of these three forecasting tools .

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) . BDI fell for the 7th day in a row .  Clearly established  bears rule trading pattern of lower highs and now lower lows over the last month.   WARNING The breakdown in trade is very significant to any worldwide recovery . BEARS RULE

The BDI is now the first chart I look at each day. – Globalization has greatly added to the interconnectedness of the world’s economies. It’s a worldwide recession, and if trade prices break down so will individual economies.

Here’s a bit more descriptive look at the BDI. Again you can adjust the chart’s time period.

$USD - The Dollar fell dramatically yesterday -0.98% The strong inverse correlation between the dollar and stocks has existed for many moons. Dollar up = markets down.

Just like that the dollar went from close to the top of its consolidation pattern to close to the bottom (see recent Investors411). This should have given stocks a real boost higher.  It didn’t. Bad news in short term for stocks Long term Bearish pattern for Dollar = bullish for stocks

—–

Reading the Tea Leaves

Forget adding to any positions right now. Until the BDI starts to turn up adding to long positions are way too risky. The fact that US markets did not move higher on yesterday’s good economic news is another bad sign.

Warning – Sure looks like the major support level of 875 on the S&P 500 is still in trouble. Expect a major attack today. If 875 goes down we could see a quick 2 to 5% loss on the S&P 500. Next major support around 830 .

Our Positions (For more see Positions section of Investors 411-scroll down)

Cutting back on the last 2.5% of GEX seems prudent at this time. We will reenter alternative energy using PBW (a more liquid alternative energy). Hopefully at a lower price than it is now.

Why – Oil prices are tumbling and energy is tied to oil. It will be a while before cap and trade makes its way through congress.  Technically even though oil prices paused in their decline there is probably another leg down and this will take alternative energy with it.

Short Term Bottom Line – Investors are waiting to see how earnings season develops. Alcoa’s better than expected earnings failed to move markets. Some or the giants report next week. If they too have better than expected earnings and investors fail to buy we’re in trouble.

Still look at a dip below 875 as a “buy the dip” opportunity.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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July 9, 2009

Market Update – “That Giant Sucking Sound”

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

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"That Big Sucking Sound"

Ross Perot

Some of you might not be old enough to remember Ross Perot’s famous line about globalization (in this specific case it was about a treaty called NAFTA) "That big sucking sound " was jobs getting sucked outside the USA.

Globalization is a multi edged sword. For more on the good, bad and ugly of globalization see Investors411 here Globalization helps developing countries (think China, India , etc.) explode in job growth, but it sucks jobs out of the USA at all but the very top levels of American business.

One of the biggest economic lies you are constantly overwhelmed with is – Cut taxes on private business and this will mean more jobsThis is a pure Bulls__t . The jobs go overseas . Everything is outsourced and practically all that remains is the tip top upper management.

It’s "Shocking" just how little jobs growth in the USA was created by the private sector over the last decade. Michael Mandel , the Chief economist for BusinessWeek chronicles private sector jobs growth over the last 10 years here

Some rough quotes

Private sector job growth rose by 1.1% in the last decade…the worst decade for private job growth since the Great Depression…a lost decade for the American economy…big job growth in health care (mainly government funded) , education, and government…this growth was funded by growing trade and government deficits…Its just horrible, just horrible… private industry is just not a jobs creator… and manufacturing is in free fall… an unalloyed bad.

Needed to be done according to Mandel – Innovate, help keep manufacturing jobs, take a step back and look at what  globalization means to us.

Take a look at a country like Germany that protects and builds it’s manufacturing/export sector. Germany is seeing the light at the end of the recession tunnel here.

  • I nvestors411 can’t emphasize enough what a bad investment the USA is relative to counties like China and India because of globalization. This mega trend will continue until the dynamic of globalization change.
  • This economic meltdown is not going to significantly recover in the USA until there are some dramatic changes in both financial institutions (see past Investors411) and how we look at globalization.

Many thanks to one of you who spent 30 minutes going over this with me yesterday

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.18% flat
NASDQ +0.06 % up
S&P500 -0.17% flat
Russell2000 -0.94% -

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

Technicals and Fundamentals

Finally above average volume.  A major battle yesterday between bulls and bears . We hit the 875 support level of the benchmark S&P 500 and there was blood (volume) everywhere .  For a while the bears crashed through the barricade, but the bulls fought their way back and the index closed above 875 .

As predicted at the beginning of the week we are already challenging the major support level.

We did briefly establish a lower low, but the bulls held.  This is significant because of the volume.

Reading of the tea leaves – The longer we stay above 875 the better a chance of a rally has of getting started.

Huge bullish factor – No matter how you think this impacts the USA in the future. The Obama administration is NOT going to let any big banks fail. Also, they keep kicking the can down the road on any major fix of the problems that created the economic meltdown.

Earnings season around the corner.

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

Note - Repeated statements in brown.

The BDI has become the best of these three forecasting tools .

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods (world trade) . BDI fell for the 6th day in a row. However the rate of decline decreased slightly. After a 5 month rally the last six weeks have seen a decline where the BDI,technically, has had lower highs and lower lows.   We are currently establishing a lower low for price. WARNING The breakdown in trade is very significant to any worldwide recovery . BEARS RULE

The BDI is now the first chart I look at each day. – Globalization has greatly added to the interconnectedness of the world’s economies. It’s a worldwide recession, and if trade prices break down so will individual economies.

$USD - The Dollar was flat yesterday -0.07% The strong inverse correlation between the dollar and stocks has existed for many moons. Dollar up = markets down. Dollar closed at $80.66 and has been trading for  a month between @$81+yesterday= and $79+. So the dollar nearing the top of its consolidation range. Long term Bearish pattern for Dollar ( bullish for stocks ) We bounced off the lows in early June and are now in a consolidation pattern .

WTIC Oil dropped a huge -4.43% yesterday, and 15% over last week+. (see chart) The 6 day fall has been significant and has NOT been accompanied by a significant rise in the dollar. (dollar works inversely to oil prices) What oil markets seem to be saying is demand is weak out there and the world’s economic picture is less bright than traders thought. The entire move higher for oil prices may have been manipulated. (see above WSJ article)

Therefore, Oil prices are no longer accurately acting as a decent tool in forecasting stock prices. Investors411 will keep an eye oil prices, but no longer use it as a forecasting tool for stocks. In fact, right now falling oil/gasoline prices are good for the overall economy, but bad for related companies (energy & alternative energy)

—–

Our Positions (For more see Positions section of Investors 411-scroll down)

I plan to buy back all recommended foreign ETF’s – just hopefully at a lower level. Perhaps when  S&P dips to support level @875. Perhaps lower. Wait on Brazil EWZ – too tied to oil prices

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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