Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
November 30, 2009

Market Update – The 2nd MM Gazette

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

The 2nd Maine Militia’s Gazette

Author Carolyn Chute holding her dog, Margaret, stands with her husband, Michael Chute at the end of their driveway by their home in Parsonsfield, Maine

To paraphrase the 2nd Maine Militia (See Nov. 17 blog) it’s not about left vs. right, Democrat vs Republican, but up versus down . So let’s take a look at a brand new news outlet only found here  at Investors411. In the style or philosophy of the 2nd Maine Militia – here’s how their paper might look.

  • Headline Crisis in Duba i – Thousands have died (from Bangladesh, Philippines, India and other poor countries) building a wealthy playground for the uber rich Arabs. A place where wealthy Americans and Iranians can rub elbows built on the backs/lives of third world labor.
  • The private company that created this years hottest American holiday present the Zhu Zhu dolls/pets has just announced a proposal for three new factories. Sorry no factories in Maine or the USA – they’re all in China.
  • Front page editorial-Keeping the Masses Distracted – Will someone tell us why CNBC and CBS business news feature stories are -  the selling of Michel Jackson’s rhinestone glove, the scratches on Tiger Woods face (wife or car accident) & the latest block buster teen vampire movie?  This is America Corporate media news.
  • Another local bank collapses . The big shadow banks that caused the financial meltdown are getting bigger with our money while their competition – the small local Maine/USA banks continue to fail in record numbers.
  • Guest editorial from Robert Reich – The 3 classes of Americans – #1 Those 25% of Americans whose kids are on food stamps, #2 those Americans who are managing, but worried about loosing value of homes & jobs #3 Those few Americans who have taken home even more winnings since 2007 like Goldman Sachs executive. LINK

Some of you may think that our fictitious Gazette is over the top. It does focus on the ugly side of globalization and unregulated wealth creation (sometimes  misnamed capitalism or free markets). It does pacifies the reader with obsessions about celebrity.  Maybe the scratches on Tiger’s face is what will solve the humanities problems and just maybe you’ll think about forming your own 2nd Maine Militia.

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -1.48% down
NASDQ -1.73% down
S&P500 -2.10% down
Russell2000 -2.53%
-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

For the moment the Dubai economic meltdown has stabilized because oil rich Abu Dhabi has promised to bail out the over leverage Mid east playground for the ultra  wealthy.

Big predictable economic news for the week is Bernanke’s approval hearings in front of congress, Obama’s more troops for Afghanistan and the monthly jobless figure on Friday

Black Friday saw a significant increase in traffic and only a o.5% gain in sales according to early reports. reports. Today is Cyber Monday where shoppers do a whole lot of on line Xmas shopping (start of the online buying season)   These numbers are Bearish for retail stores. It probably means far more people were out seeking the bargains and they will do less shopping for the rest of the holiday buying season.

The dominating factor controlling  stocks prices continues to be the dollar.

FEARLESS FORECAST Last week’s fearless forecast of an up week was crushed by the Dubai crisis .  Markets have rebounded from Dubai across the world and the damage seems limited in investors/traders minds. Looks like we will return to general trend of dollar down and stocks up till Friday’s job numbers. – Outloo k – flat/down week.

Coming up more on - Military escalation in Afghanistan & growing problems with Iraq. Any attack on Iraq would send the dollar higher and stocks lower . Perhaps Obama’s announcement of 30,000+ troops in Afghanistan will have same impact.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI has broken out to new yearly high

The BDI fell -145 points yesterday and closed at 3994. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high) over a week ago.  The BDI has rallied about 1900 points since late September. Now, 7 down days in a row & through the former resistance and now support level 0f 4291.

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets.


——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose a HUGE +1.00% Friday . The dollar closed at $74.98 . The $75.00 support level crashed and burned on Wednesday but, T he Dubai crisis is going send money back into the dollar and out of the stock market.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at -27.62 This is approaching an Oversold Position 

Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog. ( Note 2 added positions)

From Friday – Probably going to take some profits today (sell 1/3+ positions) in FXI, EWZ, GLD & all of DGP. Hopefully, will get a chance to buy back into these positions when the McClellan Index gets oversold. Personally I did sell/take profits on 1/3 of FXI & all of DGP .

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH/NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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November 29, 2009

Investors411 – Solutions – The Decade From Hell

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Solutions

T120709

Most recent Time magazine cover…

labels the years from 2000 to 2010 as the Decade From Hell.

Let’s look at some Solutions or at least places to find the answers.

One aspect that Time does not talk about is the frightening similarity that some historians are already pointing out between the USA today and Germany of the 1920s & 1930s. Both had the world’s best universities and financial structures at the time yet Germany’s over leveraged and corrupt system collapsed leading to the rise of a mad man – Hitler.  Surely and hopefully this is not the course we are embarked on.

However, we too have a huge amount of people (voting citizens) who are Mad as Hell.  Yes, they would throw a pie in the face of anyone associated with Goldman Sachs. They Scream, Yell, Point their fingers and grab hold of any celebrity who will give them instant gratification or fuels their anger. But what do they understand beyond the slogan or rant?

Recently in the comments section of the blog YOU have pointed out just how angry yet uninformed the vast majority of Americans are about the financial crisis. The recent events in Dubai (see Friday’s update) is more than just an aftershock of our fiscal earthquake. But a reminder that bigger quakes are on the way unless some serious changes are made.

Bloomberg’s Financial channel recently landed one of America’s most gifted  and insightful interviewers. - Charlie Rose .  But they have gone well beyond just interviews in seeking solutions.  About twice a month they produce an old Oxford style debate called The Intelligence Squared Debates. The latest in this series is Obama’s Economic Policies, Are They Working Effectively? LINK (Click on Audio/Video in light gray)

Another program on Bloomberg -  Confronting The Crisis. The latest is a series of reporters who dug out the dirt and have asked the right questions.  NYT’s Sorkin , Harvard’s Ferguson , WSJ, NYT and VF’s  Burroughs , & Vanity Fair’s McLean LINK

Barr


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November 27, 2009

Market Updates – Dubai on the Brink

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Dubai On the Brink

Dubai

Dubai

Another capitalist bubble bursts , as one of the oil Rich Gulf Emirates countries has asked or 6 months forgiveness on debt.  Imagine all homeowners in USA were to skip 6 months of mortgage payments.” Like many Western consumers during the good times, Dubai gorged on debt and borrowed too much to finance a building boom that has gone bust in the downturn. ” NYT LINK

The Dubai debt  is probably between $80 & $90 billion .  Bloomberg story LINK Comparison when Lehman Brothers failed the debt was over $400 billion and a whole lot of other bigger shadow banks were in big trouble.  The US taxpayer bailed them out all the big shadow banks.  Another financial credit bubble bursting of this magnitude is obviously bad for stocks – Asian markets down  3 to 5% today.

Dubai will probably get  bailed out by Oil Rich Gulf Country capital Abu Dhabi . They have a $700 to 800 billion sovereign wealth fund. With oil above $60 they should be able to handle the crisis, and in the end Abu Dhabi and probably Saudi Arabia will gain greater control over the other 7 gulf countries.

What happens is people sell when there afraid and what they sell is those stocks, companies ETF’s that they own. So All our ETF’s are going to get hit . Forget the fact that China’s banks have said they have no exposure to Dubai Our China ETF will get hit. So will Brazil & Gold.

The Right Afghanistan Speech…

That Obama Won’t Give Steve Clemons (The Washington Note) has an excellent speech by Tom Engelhardt . Clemons is a moderate (backs moderate Republicans like RI’s former Senator Lincoln Chaffee) and if you’ve read his work – an influential intellectual insider not a flame thrower. For Speech See LINK

Your Comments

Check out recent comments on right side of the blog Bob S. has comments on Goldman Sachs and SE on Sarah Palin including a link to a cherry picked, but scary video.

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.29% down
NASDQ +0.32% down
S&P500 +0.45% down
Russell2000 -0.07%
-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Dubai news is trumping Black Friday today on CNBC – the financial channel this AM.

The dollar is going to explode higher and oil lower.  Stocks are set for at least a 2+% fall at the open.  The real question is what happens on Monday after we see US stocks fall perhaps 3% today.  The Dubai crisis will clearly take time to see just how extensive the fall out will be.  Although much smaller than the US debt meltdown last fall we don’t know the extent of the damage.

When investors don’t know they sell.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI has broken out to new yearly high

The BDI fell -115 points yesterday and closed at 4340. The up 16 days in a row streak has been broken. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high)  The BDI has rallied about 2100 points since late September. Now, 5 down days in a row. through the former resistance and now support level.

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar fell a HUGE -1.17% Wednesday. The dollar closed at $74.24 . The $75.00 support level crashed and burned. The Dubai crisis is going send money back into the dollar and out of the stock market.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +16.74 This is a Slightly Overbought Position – stocks are neither oversold or overbought in the short term.

Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog. ( Note 2 added positions)

Probably going to take some profits today (sell 1/3+ positions) in FXI, EWZ, GLD & all of DGP. Hopefully, will get a chance to buy back into these positions when the McClellan Index gets oversold.

Remember, the record shows over the years I’m a much better ETF (stock) picker than market timer . It’s easier to identify a long term mega trend and harder to time it exactly. Events like Dubai are, for me, unpredictable.

If you are a long term investor you may just want to hold onto positions.


Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH/NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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November 25, 2009

Market Updates – The Patiot Tax

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

The Patriot Tax

Congressman David Obey (D. WS.) has called for a graduated war tax on all but military families. It’s long past time we went back to making war a shared sacrifice.  Now, we have those who put their lives on the line while phony patriots go to Disney World. Let’s have some real “support” for the troops. Story LINK

Others with more power in Congress are also interested in “a share the sacrifice” tax legislation Story LINK

Unfortunately, It sure looks like Obama plans to send 30,000 to 35,000 more troops to Afghanistan according to many sources. Financial Times LINK

What if at the same time Obama announces nation building in the narco country of Afghanistan he announced a Patriot tax.

Mexico vs. Afghanistan

  • Afghanistan’s GDP is $10.2 Billion according the world Bank
  • Mexico’s GDP is $1,009 Billion
  • Afghanistan’s #1 product is illegal drugs and Mexico’s #2 product is illegal drugs.
  • Mexico directly employs 450,000 , and indirectly millions in its $25 billion illegal drug industry.
  • 14,000 Mexicans have died in last 3 years over drugs and who know how many  American have died directly and indirectly from their drugs or drug war.
  • The giant Oil (Mexico’s #1 product) field offshore in Mexico is running out of oil and the Mexican drug problem is growing.
  • Corruption abounds in both countries and many accuse the Mexican army of taking sides (one drug cartel over the other) in the drug war
  • 17 of Mexico’s 31 states are deemed “narco” states.
  • Mexico is on our boarder and Afghanistan is the other side of the world.

Americans are dying today from Mexican drugs and drug wars. The Taliban that we are fighting did harbor alQaeda (perhaps 100 left in  Afghanistan) but they are in no way a clear and present danger to the USA. They are not killing Americans outside Afghanistan/Pakistan.  As the drug problem grows in Mexico millions of Mexicans are going to continue to flee the violence & poverty and come to America. You think illegal immigration is a problem now? – Wait.  Which is the greater threat Afghanistan or Mexico?

See story (facts on Mexico from his article) – The Boarder Of Madness , by Philip Caputo in this month’s Atlantic. The Fall of Mexico LINK

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.16% flat
NASDQ -0.31% down
S&P500 -0.05% down
Russell2000 -0.37%
-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Dollar flat = stocks flat

Volume was again anemic. Checkout the chart of the benchmark S&P 500 over this month (on right side of blog) and since early this summer. You’ll see as stocks rally the volume drops.  Volume has NOT worked as a forecasting tool over this period.  But over time/long term it is a clear indicator that fewer people are willing to invest more money in stocks.

Remember the story of the Frog slowly being boiled in water . He doesn’t know what’s happening. The decrease in volume as stocks rise makes me feel like that frog.

However, our Mantra remains - the dollar is dictating stock direction. Its also a dominant factor holding up economic recovery.

FEARLESS FORECAST – Up Week

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI has broken out to new yearly high

The BDI fell -77 points yesterday and closed at 4340. The up 16 days in a row streak has been broken. Technically  the BDI broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high)  The BDI has rallied about 2100 points since late September. 3 down days in a row.

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose an insignificant +0.01 yesterday. The dollar closed at $75.12 .  As the chart shows in late Oct the dollar fell $7500 and in mid Nov. went a bit below that.  Again,this is directly above the $75.00 support level.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at -5.67 This is a NEUTRAL Position – stocks are neither oversold or overbought in the short term.

Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog. ( Note 2 added positions)

Some stocks to consider (almost all for short term traders ) I’ve chosen shorter term charts (3 to 4 months), because these  would be shorter term trades.

AAPL – Apple Computer LINK to chart – Its got complete line of hot products that sells word wide & relatively great earnings report. Missed a buy the dip opportunity near Nov.1.  Would buy the dip or when McClellan Index gets to around -60.

GOOG Google – LINK to chart – Along with AMZN & AAPL it makes up a trinity of leading big cap tech stocks. Hit new high yesterday. Too high to buy now.

MS & GS – Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs – MS chart & GS chart These giant shadow banks are had their risk socialized by taxpayers – their competitors didn’t and many have failed.  More business for them. Great profits because they can borrow $ for almost nothing. They have dipped, but overall McClellan Index is neutral. If McC were oversold I’d buy.

BIDU – Bidu - BIDU chart – China’s Google.  If you want to play china and are willing to take bigger risks this company is for you. Buy the dip. Too close to new high right now.

FEED & SEED – AgFeed Industries & Origin Argitech  FEED chart & SEED chart. Have not had time to know what caused the explosion in price & volume of these two stocks over last two days.  However, if you gamble and love risk – buy the first two day dip. Pure technical play.

Long Term Outlook - We are on the cusp of change between CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH and NEUTRAL for stocks.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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November 24, 2009

Market Updates – Gold

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , ,

Several of you have asked for more on stock positions so the Positions Section will be expanded for the next few days. (see below) All current and some potential positions will be covered technically (with added charts) and fundamentally. See Position Section below.

Will get back to Politics/Economics tomorrow.  There is an important section on Gold below and hopefully we have a guest editorial this week.

World’s largest Gold bar – 250 kg Toi museum Japan

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +1.29% up
NASDQ +1.40% down
S&P500 +1.36% down
Russell2000 +1.73%
-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Big Drop in the Dollar = big rally in stocks

Volume was again anemic. Since this summer all those volume  trading systems (like the one featured on the front page of financial newspaper IBD have been virtually useless) in predicting market direction.  Markets, and human behavior that underlies the market change. So for now volume simply is not a major factor in forecasting how the US market will move.

The Dow did break out to a new yearly high. The Dow is leading because it has the greatest exposure to foreign markets. One of the major questions on Wall Street is - Are emerging markets strong enough to pull the USA out of recession?

FEARLESS FORECAST – Up Week (from yesterday)

GOLD - GLD (ETF for gold) & GDP (ETF that does 2X gold) Investors411 recommended Position

The Russian Central Bank joined India and just bought a whole bunch of gold. This is the second major central bank to buy gold.  Central banks almost always take long term positions and for many years have been dumping gold.  It sure looks like a quantum fundamental shift.  Of course other major players like China have yet to announce a purchase, but more will probably follow. If you are at all interested in GLD or GDP as a long/short term investment See Link

This ETF (see right side of blog for chart) is technically overbought – notice how far away from its blue line (50 day moving average it is)  Too far away (overbought) to buy now. However, India and now Russia have given investors solid fundamental  reasons to buy gold.  If they are net buyers instead of sellers there has got to be an eventual supply problem especially if other central banks join this club.

Buy even small dips or consolidations – Willing to bet you won’t see a dip of over 2% for another week or two. There is also a danger of GLD going parabolic.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI has broken out to new yearly high

The BDI fell a -84 points yesterday and closed at 4423. The up 16 days in a row streak has been broken. Technically it broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high)  The BDI has rallied about 2200 points since late September. 2 down days in a row. We moderated our losses from previous day

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar fell a significant -0.66% Friday. The dollar closed at $75.11 .  As the chart shows in late Oct the dollar fell $7500 and in mid Nov. went a bit below that. Sure looks like another fall in order.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +1.06 This indicates stocks are neither oversold or overbought in the short term.

Oversold conditions (@ -60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog. (Note 2 added positions)

Positions overview Investors411 favors Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) For some of the pure monetary reasons these market baskets of stocks are better financial investments click on HELP/EDITOR Section of blog on top. also LINK

Also – I like these market baskets because they are safer. Individual stocks are far more prone to -

  • Manipulation by major investors hedge funds, brokerages, banks, rival companies, short sellers etc
  • Company Events – the CEO could die, a law suit, rival announce new deal or technology, corruption etc.
  • Major world Event – war, assassination of major political figure, huge geological disaster will impact both ETF’s and individual stock.

You could spend a couple hours each week going over all the fundamentals of each company. But, this is a suckers play.  Major investors and brokers have teams spending hundreds of hours analyzing individual stocks. Do you or do you  have someone watching computers 24/7 for every time a story about the company hits the web on that company.

Therefore, I try not to own stocks or try to make owning stocks a short term play (preferably less than a month). Less chance for an unexpected disaster. I cover some of these because YOU like stocks and I occasionally see a benefit that outweighs the risk. Of course there are some of you who know how to sell puts against downside risk and that tends to give you a better chance of NOT loosing your shirt.

So Let’s start with STOCKS Both Investors411 short term positions and potential investments. Remember its Important to know when you are going to sell. Remember KISS – Keep It Simple Stupid – I don’t drill down into lots of the fundamentals.

NVS – Novartis – LINK to Char t -

  • Fundamentals – Novartis is a European Drug company with lots of decent products. It is a big Swine Flu prevention producer and that makes it hot. The dollar has gone done yet this European company has gone up (see technicals/chart)
  • Technicals – Wow this is a great chart. Look at the steady trend. NVS moves in almost a straight line above its 50 day moving average (blue line)
  • Buying/Selling -  Investors411 has taken 1/2 its profits NVS +12% and let the rest ride. We’re up @ + 19% now.  Will sell in Dec. when Swine flu is supposed to be worse. Considered selling yesterday because technically the stock is too high above its blue line (50 day moving average). If you want to get in – risks are greater now than in Oct when it was recommended. Wait for a dip like last Friday (see chart)

AMZN Amazon  – LINK to Chart

  • Fundamentals – Amazon is an Internet retail giant that has three major advantages. Lower costs than major box retailers, no or little sales tax, growing internet use.  Add to this folks are afraid of the Swine Flu and say just 10% decide to stay home and use AMZN than risk those coughing crowds. AMZN should sparkle.  Remember Americans over react to fear mongering.
  • Technicals – AMZN had a big move higher on its last earnings report. A “buy the dip” pullback in around 11/1 & another last Thrus./Fri.
  • Buying/Selling – Investors411 sold 1/2 the position for an +11% gain and let the rest ride. Now up @ +14% Will sell in December. If you want to get in – of course the risks are greater now, but there is probably at least on more move higher. AMZN did (just barely) close at anew high. Buy the dip.

CSCO Cisco - Link to Chart

  • Fundamentals – CSCO also had blow out earnings report and said they would be adding jobs. They made a major acquisition in the hot telecom area. It looked like the internet picks and shovels player would break out.
  • Technicals – CSCO advanced like most internet companies, but failed to move higher like AMZN & others after the initial push higher. The Dow is at a new high and CSCO is still flat.
  • Buying Selling – Sold all of CSCO for -1% loss a week ago. CSCO could move higher but there are a lot of other potential fish in the sea.

Tomorrow some of those other potential fish in the sea – stocks and later in the week ETF’s

Long Term Outlook - We are on the cusp of change between CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH and NEUTRAL for stocks.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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November 23, 2009

Market Update – The Terminator

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Celebrities will Save Us – NOT

Last weekend we were fortunate enough to see Pirate Radio . Before the movie, a promotion for Glenn Beck came on featuring him crying, screaming & on his knees in front of a theater audience. This evangelical performance was to be broadcasted over the next few months in theaters nationally. God help us.

Poor Arnold “the terminator” Swartzenegger – the celebrity Californian’s elected to save their state. He couldn’t and next to Michigan, California has the highest unemployment in the country. Like Palin or Obama (see past updates) America’s fixation with celebrity status and Beck tears, screaming or getting on your knees, will save nothing. “The terminator’s” problem is he couldn’t save Californians from their own greed and governance.

  • Prop 13 limited tax increases and erased a $4 billion tax surplus in a few years.
  • Property taxes were based on when you bought your property. So a property bought decades ago pays far less in taxes than an exactly similar property bought today.
  • You need a 2/3 vote of the legislature to change any taxes
  • Californians voted for things like costly regulations limiting pollutants because so many were dying from filthy exhaust and waste.
  • The “Free market” capitalism  mantra dominated California and unregulated companies like Enron were allowed to rape the state.

EW in the comments section of the blog, seems to suggests who will save us from ourselves .  One example – We spend trillions in foreign nation building wars, yet keep cutting taxes.  Our system of governance isn’t working. It’s being overwhelmed.

Tom Friedman on the Charlie Rose show  articulates the problem. You should see the video LINK But here’s a list of some of his main points that we need to overcome

  • Money in Politics
  • Gerrymandering political precincts
  • Cable TV fracturing & empowering extremes
  • Internet (both good and bad) but also empowers extremes
  • Permanent presidential campaigns
  • A globalized business community that is AWOL on major issues.

EW like Tom Friedman seems to believe “we need better citizens… not leadership.” China is producing better solutions than we are. As Tom Friedman’s grammy puts it -  “A great power that only produces sub optimal solutions will no longer remain a great power.”

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.14% down
NASDQ -0.50% down
S&P500 -0.32% down
Russell2000 -0.17%
-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Basically we had another  the dollar rose so stocks fell day.

Volume decreased and was well below average.  This is surprising on an options expiration Friday. What this tells us. – There is no money coming in from the sidelines – Its certainly more than beginning to look like a whole lot of investors are NOT going to get back into the market. Long Term this is understandable and a bearish for markets The rally in stocks is based on the dollar falling – when that runs out we have a problem

However, the Dow was down over 100 points below where it closed and rallied into the end of the day.  Why?

It’s Thanksgiving week and historically stocks rise on this shortened week. (best guess 7 or 8 out of last ten years) Monday’s have been good to stocks since Sept (again @80%% of the time)  The rally was simply short term traders getting in front of what they expect to be a good week.

Big news for week is the shopping numbers fro Black Friday & the unemployment #’s for the week.

Congress is loosing patience with the Fed & Geithner - LINK – This could negatively impact stocks, but most likely in December.

FEARLESS FORECAST – Up Week


Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI has broken out to new yearly high

The BDI fell a significant -155 points yesterday and closed at 4507. The up 16 days in a row streak has been broken . Technically it broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high)  The BDI has rallied about 2300 + points since late September.

The BDI is starting to go PARABOLIC – starting to move up too far too fast-inevitable result is a crash and burn.  We seem to be at the top of the parabola. DANGER for Bulls

Going Parabolic is one of the easiest technical forecasts to predict. Investor’s411 called this reversal to the day.

What it means – Long term we created a higher high on the chart = Bullish. Short term we are on the way down = Bearish The BDI is far more useful as a long term indicator of not only world trade, but specifically China and growing emerging markets.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose  +0.43% Friday. The dollar closed at $75.61 .  The dollar is in a narrowing trading range between $75 & $76.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

It is a short term indicator and no t to be used for major trends.  Traders and short term investors should find this oscillator very useful.  There are dozens of similar forecasting tools, but the McC Index is clear, simple, and right now pretty accurate. The more oversold we get the better the odds are the market will rebound and visa versa on overbought.

The index closed at -29.78 This indicates stocks are somewhat  oversold .

Key to chart – Zero  is roughly  neutral and roughly when you approach to @ +60 you are overbought and approaching-60 you are oversold . Buy at oversold and sell at overbought. Nothing is absolute in this chart. In fact using the moving averages as a central point is better than using zero. Nothing is absolute about the minus or plus 60 number either.

Oversold conditions = buy, Overbought positions = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

I did get a chance to do some editing in the Positions Section of the blog.

Long Term Outlook - We are on the cusp of change between CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH and NEUTRAL for stocks.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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November 20, 2009

Market Updates – Health Care

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Health Care

Robert Reich – fromer Sec. of Labor

Frankly Abby Gold (see comments on right) says it all on health care .  This country used to care. There was a bond between neighbors. Now the rich get socialism whenever they are in trouble and the poor and working class average Americans get ground into the ground. This is a mega trend in the USA that’s spiraling in the wrong direction.

Economist Robert Reich has an editorial on – What happened to the public option. LINK

Mexico & Afghanistan

(to be continued over weekend)

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.90% up
NASDQ -1.66% up
S&P500 -1.34% up
Russell2000 -2.41%
-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Volume – Volume  rising (see above chart) is important, but it saw still below average. So there is no real big forecasting signal.

Something called Options expiring (3rd Friday of each month – today) is probably what’s behind all this volume. The more sophisticated short term traders are forced to cover some of their bets at the last minute before they have to buy or sell a stock they have an option on.

If you get lost with a term or want to know more use Investopedia.com dictionary and other help programs or Stockcharts.com tutorial programs.

Why Stocks Move Lower – Yesterday we did Higher and probably the #1 reason is the government shoveling so much money into the economy at almost zero interest rate forces people into stocks. The alternative is a measly couple points in a bank savings account or add another point for a bond. So here’s the downside -

  • Job, Job, Jobs – Companies fired workers and now first will  first hire overseas where it cost less and the growth is greater.
  • American’s middle class went overboard into debt and is now saving more. Our consumers are saving more, therefore, not buying. Good to save more, but bad for economic growth
  • Trust – The rich (shadow financials & others) get risk socialized by the government and the middle class gets capitalism. Folks know their getting screwed – they/we are angry.
  • Foreclosures – still happening at a far too big a rate despite stimulus.

The best case scenario for economy – All those who made huge money in the stock market or trading credit derivatives this year buy and eventually this will “trickle down” to the middle class.

Important to remember – Stocks can move in one direction and the economy in another.  Perversely, in the short term, if job loss stays high interest rates will stay low to act as a counter balance.  Stocks historically always rise in low interest rate environments.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI has broken out to new yearly high

The BDI rose a n insignificant  +18 points yesterday and closed at 4661. Up 16 days in a row . Technically it broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high)  The BDI has rallied about 2400 + points since late September.

The BDI is starting to go PARABOLIC – starting to move up too far too fast-inevitable result is a crash and burn.  We seem to be at the top of the parabola. DANGER for Bulls

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose  +0.31% yesterday. The dollar closed at $75. 29 . This is back above the major $75.00 support level. 

CAUTION – The first breakout (up or down) is often false. This happened two days ago . Dollar back in trading range. The top of that range is the falling 50 day moving ave. now at $76.02

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at-22.67 This indicates stocks are slightly oversold and momentum for bears is growing

Even though the Dollar Rules consider overbought levels (60+) on this index a point to lighten up on stocks)

Key to chart – Zero  is roughly  neutral and roughly when you approach to @ +60 you are overbought and approaching-60 you are oversold . Buy at oversold and sell at overbought. Nothing is absolute in this chart. In fact using the moving averages as a central point is better than using zero. Nothing is absolute about the minus or plus 60 number either.

Oversold conditions = buy, Overbought positions = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Sorry have not had a chance to update Positions section in well over a week – see past updates.

Long Term Outlook - We are on the cusp of change between CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH and NEUTRAL for stocks.

Bottom Line – As Investors411 warned US equities are turning negative.  The point to add to positions will NOT come till we reach oversold positions on the McClellan Oscillator

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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November 19, 2009

Market Update – Let Them Eat Cake

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Let Them Eat Cake

“Marie Antoinette à la Rose”

Harry Ried and the Democratic Senators have come up with  a Health Care plan that insures an additional 31 million Americans and closes some coverage loopholes -  Even though this plan is far weaker than other plans that have been voted and kept in place by the voters of other civilized industrial democracies the left wing Huffington Post seems to be happy - LINK

Michael Moore and others call this a giveaway to the health insurance industry LINK

The Marie Antoinette crowd who would rather tell the children, those seeking employment and others to “let them eat cake” have come up with nothing to help even the uninsured.

Global Trends & KISS

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

Yesterday, Investors411 went over an obvious global trend - sex , from politics to economics, sells . Incidentally, all the stores I went too were sold out of the Newsweek  magazine with the hot Sarah Palin cover. It probably went as fast as the  Washingtonian magazine with the hot Barack Obama cover.

In the Overview Section LINK of the blog, written a year ago are outlined 4 major trends that that greatly influence economics and the stock market.

Relative to all the major investors out there, I’m for lack of a better word stupid . They know more, have armies of help and banks of computers. So I’ve identified 4 major mega trends that not only make YOU and me better investor, but helps understand or relates to all things from economics to politics. It’s worked for the last 5 years so there is probably something to it. In short they are -

  • Globalization
  • The shortage of commodities (Peak Oil)
  • Spread the Wealth
  • The Great Recession

Yes,the  Overview Section which covers this in more depth, should get revised or updated.

In a narrow sense, they are investment tools that have given Investor411 the ability to outperform the benchmark S&P 500. In a broader sense, they make the world more understandable.

KISS & STOCKS

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow -0.11% up
NASDQ -0.48% up
S&P500 -0.05% up
Russell2000 -0.36%
-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Volume – Volume or how many people buy/sell a stock on a given day his usually the #1 confirmation factor of a price move. That’s why in the above chart the price and volume figures of the major US stock indexes are used. When lots of investors buy or sell the price move becomes more significant.  Kind of like a crowd that rushes through the front door (the door would be called technical support or resistance level in stock market terms) on the day of the big sale.

Today even though the volume was up from the previous day its NOT significant because it is still below the average volume.

If you get lost with a term or want to know more use Investopedia.com dictionary and other help programs or Stockcharts.com tutorial programs.

Why Stocks Are Moving Higher – There are several major reasons and lots of those reasons relate  to the 4 mega trends.

  • Many emerging markets like China never entered recession. They have managed or regulated capitalism, not our unregulated free market system.
  • Stimulus programs around the world in all the G 20 countries. Basically governments printing money, cutting taxes, low interest loans etc. Stimulus works best if you have lots of money saved (are a creditor nation) and badly if you are in debt. (you are a debtor nation)
  • While the financial meltdown caused by not regulating the US financial system  did spread and impact the world. Countries that bought into the US “free market” or “greed will regulate itself” system were hurt the most. Therefore, there are some heathy countries.
  • The US government/taxpayers socializing the risk of the shadow banks and let them remain in the shadows by eliminating mark to market accounting and has NOT offered any real solutions. The same bubble is building again and stocks ar rising.
  • Zero interest loans by US government creates a whole bunch of cash that has to go somewhere – Under the sofa, collateral for bad loans, and/or into the stock market.  So stocks look relatively cheap.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI has broken out to new yearly high

The BDI rose a  HUGE +258 points yesterday and closed at 4643. Up 15 days in a row . Technically it broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high)  The BDI has rallied about 2400 + points since late September.

The BDI is starting to go PARABOLIC – starting to move up too far too fast-inevitable result is a crash and burn. DANGER for Bulls

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar fell  -0.32% yesterday. The dollar closed at $75. 06. This is back above the major $75.00 support level. 

CAUTION – The first breakout (up or down) is often false. This happened two days ago Right now the momentum (since the long term trend is down) is with the Dollar bears and consequently stock bulls

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +12.85 This indicates stocks are slightly overbought 

Even though the Dollar Rules consider overbought levels (60+) on this index a point to lighten up on stocks)

Key to chart – Zero  is roughly  neutral and roughly when you approach to @ +60 you are overbought and approaching -60 you are oversold . Buy at oversold and sell at overbought. Nothing is absolute in this chart. In fact using the moving averages as a central point is better than using zero. Nothing is absolute about the minus or plus 60 number either.

Oversold conditions = buy, Overbought positions = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Sorry have not had a chance to update Positions section in well over a week – see past updates

Investors – Folks who buy and want to hold for months/years.

Comments – NOT the time to buy or add to recommended positions. (FXI, EWZ, GLD Enjoy the rally. Shorter term investors may want to sell part of the 3 major positions while they are at highs.

Repeat – Clearly NOT the time to be adding long positions.  We’re close to new highs in major positions and the BDI looks like its started a parabolic run. (GLD might be an exception here and buying a small dip still makes sense)

MOO agriculture ETF has just broken out of its trading pattern to the upside and a minor position could be started. (more later) Still considering minor position in  VNM (Vietnam ETF – has dipped recently)

Obviously would like to buy more but waiting for a more oversold environment. Looks like we may be starting a correction.

Traders – Folks who day trade or are in and out of stocks within a month or two

AMZN & NVS positions are on hold right now. We’ve already sold 1/2 these positions.

Long Term Outlook – The dollar looks like it may break down through major support and the benchmark S&P 500 is on the verge of a yearly high – Outlook will change to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH if/when this happens. But subject to further change back to neutral since breakout was weak.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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November 18, 2009

Market Updates – A big Wet KISS

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

A Big Wet Kiss

A Big Wet KISS – No in this case a BWK does not mean what you think


See full size image

KISS = Keep It Simple Stupid – Investors411 is going to spend the rest of the week Keeping it as simple as possible. If you’ve followed Investors411 for a while you know that the blog outperforms the benchmark S&P 500 Stock Index because it follows a series of mega trends and invests accordingly. See OVERVIEW section at top of blog.

The No Brainer simple mega trend it the case of the two above magazine covers for potential investors is SEX sells

When I was 20 something I loved the artwork, fantasy and heroics of comic books. So I bought some for 10 cents and put them away in plastic cases. Last year as a Bar Mitzvah gift we gave one Conan the Barbarian and one Iron Man comic worth a total of @ $1000.00 to a grandson. - A 5000% profit if my math is right.

So today I’ll buy and save Newsweek Covers of Sarah Palin.

First, in a brown paper bag I’m going to take it to Town Government tonight, I’ll take the Newsweek and show it to some of my fellow officials. Hopefully testosterone crowd has not already bought up all the copies of Newsweek to put under their mattresses.

Palin is going to whine cry and blame others for the picture she posed for.  She plays this "why’s everybody always picking on me" victim better than anyone else on the planet.  The obsessed media will juice this and a few years from now I’ll have a magazine/cover worth a lot more than most investments. If American’s buy her glitter and elect her President I’ll make a fortune.

Bottom Line – The Trend is simple and works = sex sells, Does anyone have old copies of the Washingtonian?

KISS & STOCKS

For those of you whose eyes gloss over in the stock section I’ve tried to KISS it today, but I left a little in for those who want the deeper analysis

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +0.29% down
NASDQ +0.27% down
S&P500 +0.09% down
Russell2000 -0.09%
-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Technicals = Looking at pretty pictures of charts and finding patterns. Investors and Traders are animals who tend to run in herds moved by fear and greed.  We collectively form habits – After the first few time stopping at a red light becomes a habit. The same happens to most traders

Fundamentals = All the figures that show if a planet, country, sector or stock is growing or shrinking. In this case its growing or shrinking economically. The most important of fundamentals are mega trends.

Bottom Line – Technicals and fundamentals are useful when predicting what will happen. Investors411 uses them to predict the future – At the end of each day’s blog there is the Long Term Outlook. That show the general predicted longer term (3 to 6 months) outlook for the market

One important distinction to realize when looking at stocks . - Almost everyone else (especially those who invest or trade the big money) knows more than you or me.

  • They have an army of computers and techies doing far more in depth analysis than we do.
  • Also, they cheat – sometimes legally and sometime illegally.

The advantage we have is in KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) and by using technicals we can follow what this big herd of sharks  are doing. Because they have so much money its hard to hide what they are doing.

Now going to get a bit more technical

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 1+% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over + 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI rose a  very significant +161 points yesterday and closed at 4381. Up 14 days in a row . Technically it broke out through its major resistance level 4291 (this year’s high)  The BDI has rallied about 2200 points since late September. =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now. Especially good for our positions in FXI & EWZ

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar rose a  significant  +0.56% yesterday. The dollar closed at $75.3 0. This is back above the major $75.00 support level. The dollar rose significantly (above 0.50%) and so did stocks (just a little) This is a rare disconnect. The dollar and stocks almost 90% of the time have been moving in opposite directions. The fact that stocks were able to have a small rally and break the trend is in the short term  BULLISH

CAUTION – The first breakout (up or down) is often false. This happened yesterday Right now the momentum (since the long term trend is down) is with the Dollar bears and consequently stock bulls

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +22.63 . This indicates stocks are overbought and The McC fell  -34.41% yesterday. Not sure if this data from Stockcharts is correct

If we get another big rally the McC will be clearly overbought and its definitely time for long term investors to take some profits.  No one should be adding to long positions now. Traders and shorter term investors should be considering taking profits.

Even though the Dollar Rules consider overbought levels (60+) on this index a point to lighten up on stocks)

Key to chart – Zero  is roughly  neutral and roughly when you approach to @ +60 you are overbought and approaching -60 you are oversold . Buy at oversold and sell at overbought. Nothing is absolute in this chart. In fact using the moving averages as a central point is better than using zero. Nothing is absolute about the minus or plus 60 number either.

Oversold conditions = buy, Overbought positions = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Sorry have not had a chance to update Positions section in well over a week – see past updates

Investors – Folks who buy and want to hold for months/years.

Comments – NOT the time to buy or add to recommended positions. (FXI, EWZ, GLD Enjoy the rally. Shorter term investors may want to sell part of the 3 major positions while they are at highs.

Traders -  Folks who day trade or are in and out of stocks within a month or two

AMZN & NVS positions are on hold right now.

Long Term Outlook – The dollar looks like it may break down through major support and the benchmark S&P 500 is on the verge of a yearly high – Outlook will change to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH if/when this happens. But subject to further change back to neutral since breakout was weak.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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November 17, 2009

Market Update – Second Maine Militia

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

The Second Maine Militia

Author Carolyn Chute holding her dog, Margaret, stands with her husband, Michael Chute at the end of their driveway by their home in Parsonsfield, Maine

Second Maine Militia leaders from Time Magazine

There are three excellent comments that you should read to the right. Let’s focus on Popeye’s reference to the forming of the Second Maine Militia . – They open their yearly meeting by blasting fake TV with smiley faces and phony slogans painted on them with AK 47′s and old cannons. Article from Time magazine  LINK

They get it.  They share the view that the US government has lost its moral authority. The problem is not right vs. left, Democrats vs. Republican , but “up vs. down.” Money quote – both political parties have degenerated” “into whores for wealth and arbiters of empire.”

Something the Maine 2nd militia would be up in arms about is how Tim Geithner as NY Fed chair (now Obama’s Sec. of Treasury) sold out the taxpayers by over compensating the shadow banks (or in Maine Second Militia terms “whores for wealth”) in the AIG bailout. Lead story in NYT business section LINK

STOCKS

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage % Volume
Dow +1.33% up
NASDQ +1.38% up
S&P500 +1.45% up
Russell2000 +2.83%
-

Investors411 record – 4 1/2 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

(see results for last 1/2 year – click  6/25 & scroll down)

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

KISS = Keep It Simple Stupid The dollar rules

Dollar broke down through its $75.00 support level and the benchmark S&P 500 broke out to new yearly highs.

Volume our usual #1 confirmation factor was up, but still below average . Volume, therefore, did NOT confirm the price move. In fact over the long term the rise in stocks and decline in volume almost always signals a major reversal. But, for the last few months the Dollar rules and little else matters.

Bernanke spoke yesterday and overall he was very negative on the US economy. This is bad for Main Street and Jobs. But good for Wall Street because interest rates will remain low for a long time (Lots more on this, but limited time this AM)

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) .

The BDI is @ 1+% off its high (early June) Before that it gained almost over + 630% from its all time low of 663 in Dec. of 2008 (April 2009 high of 4291 )

The BDI rose a  significant +109 points yesterday and closed at 4220. Up 13 days in a row . The BDI’s growth did slow down a little as it approaches its major resistance level at 4291 . (This years high)  The BDI has rallied about 2000 points since late September. =  Bullish for stocks & world trade right now. Especially good for our positions in FXI & EWZ


——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool .

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar.

Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up

US dollar was down a  significant  -0.47% yesterday. The dollar closed at $74.88 . The $75 support level has fallen . If the dollar closes below $75 today it will confirm the breakdown

Which ever side the Dollar breaks out through will set the momentum for it and the opposite will happen for US ( and most world) equities.

CAUTION – The first breakout (up or down) is often false. Right now the momentum (since the long term trend is down) is with the Dollar bears and consequently stock bulls

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$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +35.50 . This indicates stocks are overbought and The McC rose +28.62 yesterday  If we get another rally this big stocks will be clearly overbought and its definitely time for long term investors to take some profits.  No one should be adding to long positions now. Traders and shorter term investors should be considering taking profits sooner.

Even though the Dollar Rules consider overbought levels (60+) on this index a point to lighten up on stocks)

Key to chart – Zero  is roughly  neutral and roughly when you approach to @ +60 you are overbought and approaching -60 you are oversold . Buy at oversold and sell at overbought. Nothing is absolute in this chart. In fact using the moving averages as a central point is better than using zero. Nothing is absolute about the minus or plus 60 number either.

Oversold conditions = buy, Overbought positions = sell

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

Sorry have not had a chance to update Positions section in well over a week – see past updates

Investors

Comments – NOT the time to buy or add to recommended positions. (FXI, EWZ, GLD Enjoy the rally. Shorter term investors may want to sell part of the 3 major positions while they are at highs.

Traders (short term plays) These are not ETFs, but individual stocks

Long Term Outlook – The dollar looks like it may break down through major support and the benchmark S&P 500 is on the verge of a yearly high – Outlook will change to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH if/when this happens. But subject to further change back to neutral since breakout was weak.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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