Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
December 31, 2009

2010 Forecast

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Happy New Year

EWZ (Brazil) – Investors411 #1 holding up +117% this year

This issue of Investors411 is the beginning of a 3 part series on ETF’s, stocks & economic forecasts for 2010. It is designed to educate YOU on how to make the same kind of money others have by following some simple investment strategies that Investors 411 has used for years to beat almost all major US indexes for the last 5 years. But first a word about

Avatar and IMAX


I’ve now seen the movie and it is truly jaw dropping . Some of the genius belongs to Director James Cameron and the rest to the Imax (a publicly traded stock) theater technology. To quote Time magazine "Look around! Embrace the movie – surely the most vivid and persuasive creation of a fantasy world ever seen in the history of moving pictures – as a total sensory, sensuous, sensual experience. " It’s like The Wizard of OZ going from black and white to c o l o r .

The IMAX theater concept is an investment choice suggested by one of you.  Right now the stock (which was on our list of YOUR recommendations) is exploding higher (LINK to chart) in HUGE volume. I’m going to nibble on/invest in the first small dip.  It will be hard to top Avatar, but IMAX is the future of movies & 3D TV is on the way.

2010 Economic and Stock Forecasts

Part 1 Positions

For 2010 Investors 411 is going to keep its focus on basically 4  core positions that it has held, throughout most of the last five years. These are the ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds). An ETF allows you to buy a market basket of stocks or an actual commodity for less than it costs to own a mutual fund and it gives you a better tax break because it trades less (buys/sells different stuff) than most all mutual funds. ETF’s also trade like stocks and have NO hidden fees.

The fundamentals behind the choices of these core positions are simple and  explained in greater depth the OVERVIEW section on the top of blog LINK These mega trends include-

  • Globalization – The key force that is allowing some countries to develop faster than others.
  • Peak Oil – The world has a limited supply of commodities  and we are running out. As we run out these commodities get more expensive.
  • Share the Wealth – Countries that have growing middle classes expand faster that counties that have wealth oligarchies that hoard their money.

Over the years these Investors411 core positions have outperformed almost every major US stock index are-

  • EWZ – Brazil
  • FXI – China
  • GLD – Gold
  • EEM – Emerging markets

Especially this year Investors411 held a lot of related positions and some stocks. You can find a list of these at the POSITONS section on the top of the blog LINK (check these out NOW before they change for 2010)

Investors411 did stray too far from its core holding – partly because of the enormous swings in the market this year. Top gainer was EWZ held from the beginning of the year (8% of portfolio total holdings) gained +117% . The biggest loss was a STUPID hedge on China (FXI) position. It was made because of fears about the Swine Flu epidemic seriously impacting China. FXP and ETF that is a double short of basically the FXI. Translation – if Chinese stocks go down FXP goes up @ twice as much.  The short term FXP trade (2.5% of portfolio total) lost -13%

Several NEW position may/will be used in 2010

  • MOO – Agriculture based ETF – Will outperform because the huge growing middle classes in especially China & India will eat better. Already opened a position here
  • EDC – This is an ETF that does 3 times what emerging markets do. Lots of risk here so it will only be bought or sold under specific conditions involving the McClellan Oscillator (see below & more later)
  • ROH & TYM – Technology. Again like EDC these two involve lots of risk because they do 2 and 3 times what tech stocks do. Only to be bought/sold under special circumstances and are short term trades. (see above)
  • Commodities – There are many ETF’s that are solely based on a commodity like GLD and not based on a company. Diminishing resources and increased demand for these commodities make for a decent investment.
  • Stocks – Because YOU asked for it some stock positions like IMAX will be suggested. (see last few Investors411)

Tomorrow Economics – The Good ,The Bad, The Ugly - 2010 Forecast

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.03% flat
NASDQ +0.13% up
S&P500 +0.02% flat
Russell2000- +0.04% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Weak volume continues. Most technical analysts consider flat trading (stocks have gone basically nowhere for the last few days) after a trend (upward in this case) a sign  that the trend is revering itself (bearish).  The problem here is it is usually accompanied by strong volume.  All in all THIS IS A BORING WEEK for analysis on stocks. YAWN – Investors are waiting for the monthly employment report at end of next week.

Weekly jobless claims number at 8:30 came in better than expected  Weekly claims fall to lowest since 7/19/2008.

The McClellan Oscillator (see below) has wiggle room on the upside but is slightly overbought.

FEARLESS FORECAST – same as before "Up to flat week" – Historically this is an up period (Santa Clause rally) Even though we are entering overbought territory – hope of a positive employment report for Dec. & historical bullish factors should keep stocks on the up.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

The Dollar & the BDI have been temporarily eliminated. Right now how overbought we become is taking on more significance.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +22.57 This is a slightly  Overbought Position. This chart has recently formed a series of higher highs and higher lows over the last 5+ weeks.  So it looks like there is a possibility of one more swing higher before we get to a clear oversold position (over +60).

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

Resource for ETF’s -MSN Money has 821 ETF’s listed according to performance 1,4,13 weeks 1, 3 5, years on a 20 minute delay for daily prices. LINK

SELLING & BUYING

One of the ETF’s we are going to use in 2010 is EDC – an ETF that does 3 times what emerging markets do.

Still holding onto all of UWM.

When/If McClellan Index gets back above +60 will sell some more.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 30, 2009

Market Update – Mad Amoeba’s

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , ,

Sorry, Abbreviated Investors411 today

Amoeba

I wanted to sympathize with those who oppose health care reform because it is a give-a-way to insurance and drug companies . It is no accident that these stocks have exploded higher in the last month.

It would make a one celled amoeba  mad enough to quickly evolve, develop opposing thumbs, and start throwing stones. The 31 million Americans that will be covered under this plan will all be covered by private companies. This will further consolidate the strangle hold Private insurance has over the health care industry.  With the way Lobbyist and big companies control government its had to see something meaningful develop out of this legislation or any future attempts.

You can assured that the weapons producers will find more wars to increase their budgets 200% over the next decade like they did the last.

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December 29, 2009

The Green Revolution

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Check out the comments from Bob, Monitor, Doggies Mom, D. & Popeye on right side of blog. Are they right?

The Green Revolution

Iran

The Iranian Green Revolution has again erupted into massive demonstrations. Today’s lead editorial at NYT Iran’s War on Its People LINK

One video shows protesters stopping a lynching LINK More pro reform video’s of demonstration LINK The BBC (almost always superior to American media) has photos of clashes LINK & Andrew Sullivan (Atlantic Magazine) again outstanding in coverage LINK Al Jazeera (Arab media’s largest outlet) also has lots of coverage LINK Warning some of these pictures and videos are violent

About the worst thing that could happen is if Israel or the USA launched some sort of attack. We didn’t when the satellites of the old Soviet empire crumbled and we should not now. It would create martyrs in Iran and almost all those demonstrating are asking us to stay out. To help - the best YOU can do is spread the news/videos.

The irony here is in Iraq we have put in power the same kind of religious theocracy. Maliki, our supposed puppet head of Iraq, was the first (government/group) along with Hamas and Hezbollah to recognize Ahmadinejad’s fraudulent presidential election. The two major religious leaders in Iraq Sard and Sistani have never even spoken to any Americans.

Yemen & Saudi Arabia

Al Qaeda of Saudi Arabia has claimed responsibility and Yemen was where the attempted bomber of the Christmas plane flight was trained. We seem to be already using drone planes to attack suspected bases in Yemen. These two groups seemed to have merged. For more see LINK

Let’s put together an incomplete list of where these (Sunni as opposed to Shia) al Quaeda terrorists are from or trained – The USA, Saudi Arabia, England, Yemen, Iraq, France, Germany, Syria, Indonesia, Spain,Nigeria, Egypt and the list goes on and on and on and on and grows and grows and grows and grows.

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many look like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that got the most recommendations I’ve changed charts to 1 year charts to get a long term outlook

  • BIDU – Baidu Inc. China’s version of Google. After a HUGE 300% rally tis year it looks technically like this stock is leveling off. The last 3 months it has tried to break out above 350 and failed.  The BDI  which is often used for a proxie on China has fallen for 6 weeks. I’d wait for a turn in the BDI and/or a BIDU breakout over the 450 level before investing.
  • AAPL – Apple Computer – A company that everyone knows. Along with AMZN & GOOG, AAPL has led tech stocks higher.  Apple has just broken out to a new high. There has been increased volume (a good sign)supporting AAPL for the last few months. Right now US markets & AAPL are nearing overbought levels. Right now this limits upside movement. Still tempting and a buy the dip stock.
  • AMZN – Amazon – Internet retail giant.  Looks like Christmas season for this giant is going to be better than expected. Investors411 has bought and sold this stock. There was a good buy the dip opportunity a week+ back when AMZN dipped back to its 50 day moving average. Like AAPL a lot of increased volume behind AMZN in the last few months – good sign. If markets move higher these last two will lead. A buy the dip stock.

That’s it – Use the calender at the top of the page and go over all YOUR stock choices made over the last week+.  Some of them are great “buy the dip opportunities”

Next  Stock forecast for 2010


KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.26% up
NASDQ +0.24% up
S&P500 +0.12% up
Russell2000- -0.05% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Another low volume day. Stocks have been up 6 days in a row on extremely low volume.

Holiday sales estimated to be up 3.6%. This is a positive surprise LINK = Bullish fundamental

McClellan Oscillator at +48.42 (very close to overbought – see below) = Bearish technical

See changes in positions below.

FEARLESS FORECAST – same as before “Up to flat week” – Historically this is an up period (Santa Clause rally) Even though we are entering overbought territory – hope of a positive employment report for Dec. & historical bullish factors should keep stocks on the up.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

The Dollar & the BDI have been temporarily eliminated. Right now how overbought we become is taking on more significance.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +48.42 This is very close to an  Overbought Position. = Time to start lighten up on positions. This does not mean the markets won’t move higher. I’ve set up a yearly chart of the $NYMO LINK You’ll notice that the $NYMO went all the way up to +100 in the big March rally. So + 60 is NOT an automatic sell of everything, but a signal to lighten up. See buys/sells below.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Sold (6% of portfolio)  FXI at 42.35. FXI now 12% of portfolio – Profit +36% Will add to the this key position when BDI turns positive for over a week and/or the $NYMO is closer to oversold positions

Very tight stop on 1/2 the position of UWM (ETF that does 2X what small cap sacks do) The other stop at 1/2 is at the price UWM was bought.  Will sell 1/2 into any rally

Now 48% invested in stocks. If you count one mutual fund I’ve owned for 5 years (BRSIX ) I’m 54% invested in stocks. Click on POSITIONS section at top of blog for more.

When/If McClellan Index gets back above +60 will sell some more.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 28, 2009

Market Updates – Christmas Carol

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

A Christmas Carol

Charles Dickens-A Christmas Carol-Cloth-First Edition 1843.jpg
Cover of the first edition (1843) by Charles Dickens

In the spirit of the season let me remind any of you who are opposed to the Senate version of health care about a young boy called Tiny Tim from Charles Dickens A Christmas Carol
In the not too distant future millions of Tiny Tim’s (31 million more covered)  will now be able to get health care even though they have pre existing conditions.

Progressive, like me, are fuming over Obama and the fact that this bill should be much better – but Obama’s right it is better than nothing.

Perhaps the Ebenezer Scrooge’s of the USA will prevent this, perhaps not. The Bah Humbug crowd usually tries to use the deficit as an excuse to prevent the Cratchit family and Tiny Tim from getting health care. Baloney. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office see this bill as revenue neutral or slightly better. Their two great fears are that someone somewhere else is getting social insurance, & it will hurt the defense budget.

It’s the second reason that should send off every alarm bell in your head .

The Pentagon budget that has exploded over 100% since 2001 (from  $296 billion in 2001 to a projected $630 billion in 2110) This does NOT include new military bases, nuclear weapons or the Iraq/Afghan war – (one to three trillion) – depending on if you use DOD or Noble Prize winner Joe Stigletz as a source). So the real figure is closer to 200+ % more of your tax money has gone to weapons over the last decade ..We are close to averaging a 20% increase in military spending annually since 2001.

We are 3% of the world’s population and already spend over 50% of the worlds weapons budget . "And perhaps most disturbing of all, the Pentagon budget increased for every year of the first decade of the 21st century, an unprecedented run that didn’t even happen in the World War II era, [the cold war} much less during Korea or Vietnam."

Perhaps Tiny Tim and the Cratchit Family will get some crumbs of health insurance.

But the real problem is the Bah Humbug military Industrial industry who like the plant Seymour in Little Shop of Horrors screams FEED ME . We shovel blood and money at Bah Humbugs and the situation keeps getting worse.

"Build it and they will come" -  The only way stop the Ebanezer’s, Seymour’s, Neocon’s or whatever you want to call those who beg for continual 20% annual increases  in the military since 2001, is to cut their budget.

A very hard thing to do. The right wing screamers that dominate the media have fear mongered hatred toward Arabs, gays, Europeans (socialists), Canadians (socialists) Mexicans, Russians, Chinese, Liberals etc. Their fear mongering fuels the military budget. Obama has also just certified nation building in Afghanistan.

You obviously can’t keep justifying the exploding military budget without new wars .  Whose next? – Iran, Pakistan, China, Yemen, Russia, Mexican or Mexican immigrants. After that those nasty socialists in Europe whose economic Union is now economically (total GDP) larger than ours.

Far fetched? I think not. 
For more on Tiny Tim/Health Care see Paul Krugman LINK

For more on Defense budget costs William Hartung LINK

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many look like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that got more than 1 recommendation. I’ve changed charts to 1 year charts to get a long term outlook

  • GOOG – Google – You all know the Google story – What’s not to like. Look at the chart – a steady upward trend above its 50 day moving average (blue line on chart)  It’s a bit overextended right now (too far from blue line) but when a decent buy the dip back to the "blue" occurs a buy.
  • PCLN – Priceline – My wife books our reservation on Priceline.  This chart is just what you want to see. Even back in February when everything was falling apart PCLN was moving higher. Look at the trend on the chart. A tempting buy now even though it like GOOG is overbought or too far above the "blue" line. A clear buy the dip stock
  • GS Goldman Sachs – Super connected mega shadow bank. Do these guys really own the Bush and Obama administrations? Who knows, but they certainly are smart and outperform everyone else in their sector # 2 is MS It looks like they have peaked and are starting to pull back. Congress has made some noise about "too big to fail" banks and systemic risk involved in the 2008 financial meltdown. But we all know they will yell a lot and do little.  They are falling in lighter volume – a good sign.

Tomorrow – YOUR top 3 choices

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.51% down
NASDQ +0.71% down
S&P500 +0.52% down
Russell2000- +0.49% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Fundamentally lots of investors/traders are changing their views to a V shaped recovery. Perhaps the most significant fundamental in this will be January’s employment report. If this turns positive (at start of the year it was -700,000 ) we will be in a sweet spot.

Another low volume rally .  Volume for decades has been the #1 confirmation factor for stocks. Since September volume has dropped and stocks have rallied. Translation less and less people/money (volume) are investing in stocks – yet they are rising.  Perhaps the best explanation is that there has been no fundamental rules changes for our financial sector. These longer term investors (I think accurately) realize we are just building another unregulated free market bubble and are seeking more secure investments.

McClellan Oscillator at +59.57 (overbought – see below) We are entering overbought territory. (See below)

A Santa Clause Rally strictly defined is the period after Christmas till 2 days into New Year, Historically S&P 500 is up 1.5% in this period since 1960

Last week’s – FEARLESS FORECAST "Up to flat weekMore up than flat. As predicted, heath care stocks led rally because congressional reforms are meager.

FEARLESS FORECAST – same as before "Up to flat week" – Historically this is an up period (Santa Clause rally) Even though we are entering overbought territory – hope of a positive employment report for Dec. & historical bullish factors should keep stocks on the up.

CAUTION – Check out how overbought we are, The higher we push over +60 the worse the situation becomes.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

The Dollar & the BDI have been temporarily eliminated. Right now how overbought we become is taking on more significance.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +59.57 This is an Overbought Position. = Time to start lighten up on positions. This does not mean the markets won’t move higher. I’ve set up a yearly chart of the $NYMO LINK You’ll notice that the $NYMO went all the way up to +100 in the big March rally.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekend)

These are positions I actually own

ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

The hard part here is to be selling with the knowledge that stocks will probably move higher into the monthly employment announcement in early January.  Right now Investors 411 is a bit over 55% invested. (FXI, EWZ, MOO & UWM ) If stocks continue their move higher hope to basically cut this in 1/2 by January employment announcement.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 24, 2009

Happy Holidays

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update

HAPPY HOLIDAYS

Investors411 will be back and hopefully in revised fashion for 2010 on Monday.

Check out YOUR new comments on right side of bl

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December 23, 2009

Market Updates – March On Washington

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Guest Editorial – A Call to Arms

1960 March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom

Let’s march on Washington! – By Bob Sadinsky

What good does it do to keep calling or writing to your spineless legislators! For decades now starting with the Vietnam War,public opinion has been aligned with stated Democratic positions but the GOP with help from ConservaDems has thwarted  Progressive issues. The GOP has fought tooth and nail to prevent,Unionism,the 8 hour work day,overtime, Equal pay for equal work.  They fought to deny health insurance for decades and seat belts and mining regulations. They defanged OSHA and the EPA and beat back the ERA! They fought against Medicare and Social Security,viciously. Nixon actually ran as a peace candidate for his second term. He promised to end the war and then he tried to obliterate SouthEast Asia and only ended the war when we had actually lost.

The GOP revisionists today  like,the swiftboaters ,say we lost because we lacked the political will to win. They can’t answer simple questions like what was our strategic interest there and why did you ask Johnny to fight and to die there?  Kerry tried to do that and the press allowed the swiftboaters to make the real War Hero look like a wimp  and a traitor next to Bush and Cheney,the draft dodgers. No one can answer that today about Afghanistan or Iraq yet we are again expanding an unpopular war! The GOP has been so wrong for so long,it’s amazing they are still around.

Unless it violates someone’s rights,in a democracy like ours,the public sentiment of the majority should rule! It doesn’t!! Oh,I’m wrong. If you have enough money to spend you can legislate to strip a hated minority of their basic human rights under the Bill of Rights! Today it’s Gays. Tomorrow,it’s you!

Bush and Cheney declared you are with us or against us and proceeded to muzzle our rights. They demonized the Press. The Right Wing Liberals demonize Liberalism and Progressives. Their ability to turn the US into a Fascist State,….grows. I shudder to think what will happen when the Dems lose Congress the next time. I don’t think the Dems will be left with the ability to filibuster to prevent draconian measures.

Progressives and Liberals have to take to the streets or we will be marginalized and swept aside! Use your voices before we lose the ability to do so.

Bob, an old friend and fellow artist, is a frequent critic/commentor to Investors411. Read his comments on right hand side of blog.

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many look like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that only got 1 recommendation. I’ve changed charts to 1 year charts to get a long term outlook

  • MVIS Microvision Inc. – This stock has gone all the way from below 1 in March to above 5 and has settled at just above 3. This is exactly where its 200 day moving average support line is. MVIS (laser projection devices for head mounted displays & hand held devices) is at its inflection point and I don’t know enough about the fundamentals to even make a guess on their future. However technically there has recently been one strong volume rally day and that’s bullish.
  • SEED – Origin Agritech LTD – Talk about shooting up. SEED, a top player in the seed industry in China went from 5 to 14 in late Nov. in truly massive volume on mews of its genetically modified corn being approved in China. It has  now settled at @10. Really tempting buy the dip opportunity. Still a long way from 50 day moving average at @7.5. This stock often mentioned with another – FEED
  • NVS – Novartis – Drug maker that Investors411 owned.  The swine flu added to the value of this European stock. We got out at the high and NVS dropped and is now flat. Rising dollar may be hurting the stock price since this is a European company. Done for now – too many other fish in the sea.
  • FCX – Freeport McMoran – Copper and Gold – Basically a commodity or China play. Copper and Gold supplier. This big company has outperformed China and gold. I’d rather own the ETF that tracks copper, but a decent play. Right now it has retreated from high and forming a base.

Some of the stocks from yesterday and today may be hidden gems for traders. Tomorrow – The stocks that got more than 1 vote

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.50% down
NASDQ +0.67% down
S&P500 +0.36% down
Russell2000- +0.81% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Stocks rose for the second day in a row despite a rising dollar. Bullish news for stocks despite weak volume. Traders, more and more, look like they are coming around to the belief that we will have a V shaped recovery in the USA.  Emerging markets in the shorter term led the world. Now the USA seems to be the locomotive.

Caution – These are not big games and especially VOLUME is weak. However, the cumulative move is bullish especially for USA. Short term bullish move here will positively impact world.

McClellan Oscillator at +31 (“a bit overbought” – see below) gives us some wiggle room for stocks to move higher before we reach overbought levels of +60 = Santa Clause Rally caps

A Santa Clause Rally strictly defined is the period after Xmas till 2 days into New Year, Historically S&P 500 is up 1.5% in this period since 1960

NB – There is an important distinction between short term traders and long term investors

FEARLESS FORECAST Again, Up to flat week . Lobbyist for health care & insurance companies have won  Their stocks should lead market higher. Dollar may take a breather before climbing again.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade & China ). -91 yesterday. Clear mid term bearish trend accelerating. Long term trend since late last year still bullish (see chart) Right now the BDI is in free fall and this is not good for emerging markets & especially China. World trade is decelerating as the dollar rises. Perhaps a new link between the rising dollar and falling BDI is establishing itself.  (see 8/18 explanation  of fundamentals behind falling dollar)

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now breaking down as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose +0.26% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant. Over 1% HUGE The dollar closed at $78.28 . The dollar is breaking down as a predictor of stock movement. Stocks are moving higher on a stronger dollar. The second day in a row, = Bullish for stocks

Lots of the European countries are having problems with debt that are worse than ours. This makes the dollar a whole lot stronger relative to the Euro and former Russian satellite countries currency. The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is still bearish

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +31,30 This is a bit Overbought Position. We have a ways to go till we reach overbought (+60). This means rally could continue for at least a few more days.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekend)

These are positions I actually own

ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Big Mistake – Back on 12/8 (click on calendar date on top right of blog and scroll down) Investors411 announced to buy IWM & UWM (@2x what the IWM does). For some reason (too busy with other stuff) I never pulled the trigger on this trade. Big Mistake! Both indexes track small cap stocks and the UWM is up 10%+ & IWM 5%+ .

Bottom Line – Waiting for McClellan Oscillator to get close to + or – 60 before making a major move. Traders (not investors) may be able squeeze in a quick trade on the above UWM or IWM if we get a short dip.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 22, 2009

Market Updates – Santa Clause Rally?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

A Santa Clause Rally for stocks?

YOUR Questions on Health Care

The NYT has come out with its editorial supporting the Senate Health Care Bill. You may disagree with the Times or Nate Silver (See Bob Sadinsky’s comments on right of blog)  but they have the facts. They do omit some of the downside and you can post your objections in the comments section. New York Times takes a clear position – ” A Bill Well Worth Passing LINK

YOUR questions (see D’s comments onside of blog)

  • “Cadillac” Plans – These are the plans that cover virtually everything and have (almost) no co pays. I believe they are above $8,500 a year for an individual & $23,500 for a family. They are going to get taxed.
  • Cuts in Medicare – There is fraud and waste in medicare. An NPR debate on this revealed the following on home health care providers. Obviously home health care saves money  because it often prevents nursing home stays. Example(s) There are now @ 10,000 home health care companies – 800 alone sprang up in Houston About 1/2 of all insulin injections in homes (3 times a day) are now done in Dade County Florida. 1/2 of insulin dependent elderly or disabled diabetics don’t live there. These major anomalies show that some are CHEATING the system. The list went on.

Your Stocks Picks

Perhaps you want to put some of these in your holiday portfolio stockings. I do NOT recommend any but can give you a little fundamental and technical analysis . That said, some many like pretty good buys. Remember this analysis barely skims the surface and professional investors have a big advantage because they have banks of computers and armies of people going over each investment they make. You can see the Chart by clicking on the ticker symbol. The following are stocks that only got 1 recommendation.

  • HMIN Hotel Inns And Hotels Management – Discount hotels in China – China is growing and this is a discount hotel chain that’s growing faster. Chart shows after a rally HMIN has formed a base. If/when FXI moves higher HMIN should do even better. On chart notice all the big volume spikes on up days = bullish
  • CAAS China Automotive Systems – Another small cap China stock. Remember the Chinese now buy more cars than Americans. Small caps usually outperform in any rally. This chart is pulling back to its 5o day moving average and that is a buy the dip opportunity.
  • VPRT Vistaprint - You happened to picked the company that does my business card’s.  My wife thinks they are the best deal out there. Chart shows and a rising blue line (50 day moving average) and that’s always good. A recent dip makes it a buy the dip opportunity. Volume getting weaker is not a good sign.
  • SHOO Steve Madden – Shoes – Apparent the shoes to buy right now. Again lots of those green volume spike bars on chart. This shows some institutions are buying
  • FSLR . First Solar – Solar technology and building a huge plant in Mongolia (China) Just about every analyst who follows alternative energy has something to say about FSLR. Chart not in clear upward trend as above 4 stocks. Perhaps a good buy because of China connection but right now weak technically
  • GE - General Electric Industrial giant – Basically, so big it follows US markets. Chart shows consolidation pattern right now. Under performing US markets right now.

Ran out of time – more tomorrow – For those of you who love the danger of individual stock picks the top 4 should do well if markets move higher.

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.83% down
NASDQ +1.28% down
S&P500 +1.05% down
Russell2000- +1.32% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Stocks are rising despite a rising dollar. We almost had a significant rise in both the dollar (+0.41% ) and a barely significant (above 1.00% ) rise inmost major stock indexes. Volume decreased.  Yes this a market that is NOT making new highs (NASDQ & S&P 500) in GROWING volume.  That’s troubling and indicates an expanding bubble – unless we can grow volume.  However the relationship between the dollar and stocks is breaking down in a positive manner for stocks. They are both RISING = Bullish for stocks

McClellan Oscillator at +25 (see below) gives us some wiggle room for stocks to move higher before we reach overbought levels of +60 = Santa Clause Rally caps

FEARLESS FORECAST Again, Up to flat week . Lobbyist for health care & insurance companies have won  Their stocks should lead market higher. Dollar may take a breather before climbing again.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade& China) . -104 yesterday. Clear mid term bearish trend accelerating. Long term trend since late last year still bullish (see chart)

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose +0.41% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant. Over 1% HUGE The dollar closed at $77.75

Lots of the European countries are having problems with debt that are worse than ours. This makes the dollar a whole lot stronger relative to the Euro and former Russian satellite countries currency. The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is still bearish

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +25.17 This is a little Overbought Position. We have a long way to go till we reach overbought or oversold.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekend)

These are positions I actually own

ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Positions section of blog was updated over weekend.  44+% Invested in stocks -

  • FXI (China) 18% (selling 6% into any rally – 24- 6=18% – see Friday’s update)Still holding on
  • EWZ (Brazil 16%)
  • MOO (agriculture (10)%

Bottom Line – Waiting for McClellan Oscillator to get close to + or – 60 before making a major move.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 21, 2009

Market Updae – Dysfunctional Government

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Avatar

Starting tomorrow we are going to be going over YOUR choices for stocks . While Investors411 prefers ETF’s may of you are sophisticated traders/investors , so this should be interesting. Today in honor of the worldwide successful open of the Avatar movie ($73 million US box office plus $159 worldwide) let’s offer one of  YOUR choices IMAX – the 3D movie theater chain. (See stock section below)

Over the last week you have sent in 13 stocks – 7 have more than one vote. You have till tomorrow AM to add to list . You can send your choice(s) into the comments section of blog or preferably to my gmail address (see HOMEPAGE at top of blog)

Great Link to the top 15 all time movies according to Adjusted Gross IncomeWho is #1? LINK

Dysfunctional Government

Health Care Bill did break Senate Republican Filibuster last night. It passed the Senate

One of you sent in a personal email and wanted break up the health care bill into individual components and pass it that way . About 17 years ago under Hillary/Bill Clinton we tried for major health care reform. None of those major components have since passed congress. In fact, Congress grows increasingly dysfunctional and partisan each day .  The 60 vote filibuster in the Senate used to be used only in rare cases – example in the 60′s to block civil rights legislation. From today’s Paul Krugman NYT editorial LINK quoting political scientist Barbara Sinclare

  • 1960s filibuster’s used 8% of time on major legislation
  • 1980s filibuster used 27% of the time
  • Today Republicans have used Senate filibuster 70% of the time.
  • Republicans went so overboard that they held up Defense Department funding till the last minute to block health care.

Our legislators are more divided than ever. Why not? Polarizing politics is a cash cow for both parties(and so called pundents) who have gerrymandered districts so badly that there is no need for compromise. Our democrasy is becoming increasingly dysfunctional.

Show Us the Email

AIG was at one end of the domino chain of Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction (Warren Buffett’s term for Credit Default Swaps) and there is a treasure trove of emails that have not been made public in this company that is now owned 80% by YOU (the government)  Before the trail gets cold  these email should get exposed according to Eliot Spitzer and others who wrote an op-ed LINK

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.20% up
NASDQ +1.45% down
S&P500 +0.58% down
Russell2000- +1.05% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar finally leveled off and stocks rose . Volume did increase for all indexes and was above average (except for S&P 500) But Friday was what Wall Street called a “quadruple witching day” (3rd Friday of every month – where options expire) so you get an artificial spike in volume. Volume did NOT confirm the price move.

Some good reports out of RIMM & ORCL helped technology.

Shortened Christmas week.

(Last Week’s) – FEARLESS WEEKLY FORECAST Up to flat week . NASDQ was up and other 3 major indexes down. No significant move.

FEARLESS FORECAST – Again, Up to flat week . Lobbyist for health care & insurance companies have won  Their stocks should lead market higher. Dollar may take a breather before climbing again.

IMAX Chart LINK - Stupid, Stupid, Stupid – You know a movie is going to promote a new technology (3D) and do good to great – This stock ran up 20+% this month before the open of the Avatar movie.  The 3D movie chain’s stock is now over extended now. Like our investment in AMZN & NVS (swine flu) IMAX was a buy the rumor sell the news stock. It went down Friday. Worth watching – a potential buy the dip. Tim Burton’s “Alice in Wonderland” is the next big 3D flick.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade& China) . -118 Friday. Clear mid term bearish trend accelerating. Long term trend since late last year still bullish (see chart)

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose +0.03% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant. Over 1% HUGE The dollar closed at $77.75 . Technically we’ve broken through the 50 day moving average and TWO significant resistance levels = Very Bullish for dollar & bearish for stocks

Lots of the European countries are having problems with debt that are worse than ours. This makes the dollar a whole lot stronger relative to the Euro and former Russian satellite countries currency. The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is still bearish

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +7.10 This is NEUTRAL Position. We have a long way to go till we reach overbought or oversold.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekend)

These are positions I actually own

ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Positions section of blog was updated over weekend.  44+% Invested in stocks -

  • FXI (China) 18% (selling 6% into any rally – 24- 6=18% – see Friday’s update)
  • EWZ (Brazil 16%)
  • MOO (agriculture (10)%

Bottom Line – Waiting for McClellan Oscillator to get close to + or – 60 before making a major move.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 18, 2009

Market Update – The Known Universe

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

The Known Universe


grand_universe_by_antifan_real

Before we jump into Politics, Stocks, & Economics and let your mind go in the following video from the American Museum of Natural History.  It takes 27 seconds to get started in the Himalayas and expands. “The Known Universe”LINK

Folks who love video’s like the above can’t wait to see an alternate universe or Avatar in 3D

Health Care

If you really want to get into the nuts and bolts of the Heath Care bill – Progressive Glenn Greenwald’s answer to Nate Silver’s 20 questions (see yesterday’s Update) LINK and Silver’s response LINK

In the NYT today there are two broader editorials on the current Health Care Bill.

  • Nobel Prize winning Progressive Economist Paul Krugman – “Pass the Bill” LINK
  • Senior Weekly Standard and NYT conservative columnist David Brooks – “The Hardest Call” - LINK

Reality is the Republicans are not going to do anything to seriously change health care. They did nothing significant from 2000 to 2008. This bill will give additional coverage to 30 million Americans and prohibit discrimination by heath insurers. It may or may not marginally bring down costs. It’s clearly not making lots on the left and right happy.  (See comments by D. “I’m Not Happy. “) I’d sure like to see the 27% of insurance costs that is bloated salaries of insurance CEO’s and executives reduced and a whole lot of other changes.

Our politicians  (both left and right) are far more influenced by lobbyists and stereotyping the other side to get elected. So any future change is doubtful because it sure looks like they will gain seats in the mid term elections. Hopefully moving the entropy that envelops Washington will spark a process of change.

Elizabeth Warren

Congressional Oversight Chairman of TARP Elizabeth Warren has been a voice of reason. Mama Jama in the comments section has sent in a valuable 3 minute CSpan video with her comments. LINK

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.27% up
NASDQ -1.22% down
S&P500 -1.18% down
Russell2000- -1.14% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar exploded higher and stocks took a big hit . Volume did NOT increase. (A small increase in Dow) I’ve followed stocks for several decades and the lack of volume over the last three or four months is very unusual .  We’ve slowly moved higher, but even yesterday’s toasting was in relatively light volume. One thing is certain – no new money is coming into the markets from the sidelines and trading is being even more dominated by short term traders than before.

Fundamentals Domino’s are beginning to fall . In this case it’s the economic well being of countries that have become over extended with debt. Dubai was the first and may just a case of taking on too much debt – then getting hit by the recession.

Now, there’s worry that countries impacted by our financial meltdown (shadow banks in those countries that traded unregulated financial weapons of mass destruction – credit default swaps) might also fall like domino’s. Greece had its credit rating downgraded over a week ago. Spain & Italy look shaky. All the former Russian satellite s who bought into the unregulated free market (got into credit default swap debt) are on very thin ice – especially the Ukraine. Jolly old England (London brags it is the financial center of the world) is worse off than we are. = Potential big Bearish news

A second fundamental spooking the markets is what’s going to happen to the Fed and shadow banks . The shadow bank lobby is ultra strong (unfortunately). However, there is momentum building to have the Congressional Budget Office (a relatively bipartisan group) oversee the Fed. Pluses and minuses here. Today just the minus. While the CBO is basically apolitical, it is a branch of congress. If congress got control of overseeing the FED, it would become even more political.

Quadruple witching day for stocks. Translation – lots of traders have to buy and sell because their options expire. Irregular trading happens

FEARLESS WEEKLY FORECAST Up to flat week . But be careful we are entering overbought territory (see below) and if rally continues I’ll be taking profits rather than adding to stocks.

Bottom Line - The dollar (see above and below comments) is on at least a major short term bull run. Both fundamentally and technicals support this move . Dollar up = Stocks down .

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade) . -98 yesterday

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar rose a HUGE +1.11% . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant. Over 1% HUGE The dollar closed at $77.72 . Technically we’ve broken through the 50 day moving average and TWO significant resistance levels = Very Bullish for dollar & bearish for stocks

As mentioned above, lots of the European countries are having problems with debt that are worse than ours. This makes the dollar a whole lot stronger relative to the Euro and former Russian satellite countries currency. The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is still bearish

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +0.82 This is NEUTRAL Position. We have a long way to go till we reach overbought or oversold.

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Bottom Line Start thinking about taking profits, especially into any continued rally .

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

(again a little behind on latest moves)

Will wait to sell some ETF’s and stocks when McClellan Index/Oscillator approaches overbought (@+60)


Recommended ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Your Comments - (See “Monitor’s” comments on side of blog – About a week  ago Investors411 sold its positions in GLD. DGP, AMZN & NVS ) – Not interested in opening any new positions right now Waiting for a clear signal from MCellan Index to commit additional capital or sell existing positions .

If we rally into the end of this week I’d take some more profits

Sold BAC (very small position -1%+ of portfolio for a -6 % loss)

Will sell some FXI (China)  (@ 4 to 6% of portfolio) into any rally today – WHY –

  • China is a “high beta” ( it makes bigger moves/more volatile than others) ETF’s
  • Technically (see chart) it has broken through a couple support levels.
  • China sells a lot to Europe and if they are in trouble China is impacted.
  • BDI is falling
  • The McClellan oscillator is at zero. Stocks have a long way to go before they reach oversold or overbought levels.
  • Momentum is with the bears.

Caution here, I’ve made mistakes before in timing. This might be the perfect “buy the dip,” but there looks like more downside to come. (see above)

Also considering selling 1/2 position in MOO

Bottom Line – Waiting for McClellan Oscillator to get close to + or – 60 before making a major move.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 17, 2009

Market Updates – Bats**t Crazy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Bats**t Crazy


In politics (or anything) its important to fight 100% for what you believe in. But Rome wasn’t built in a day. Sometimes you’ve got to be a realist and if you can make things better, you accept it and fight on.

Both privately and publicly those of you who have made comments or talked with me are furious at Obama (Afghanistan, Health Care, lack of leadership, & other issues.) Me too. Indeed one poll shows Obama nationally with a 51% approval rating (and sinking) and Hillary Clinton with a 75% approval rating. LINK

Nate Silver, who was perhaps the best pollster/analyst out there makes a strong case for accepting a health care compromise. (see chart above) Personally I’s love to see something like Medicare extended to all Americans (Bernie Sanders D. VT. Introduced such a measure) but the reality is it’s not going to win. Part of the reason for this is Obama’s lack of commitment and leadership. Howard Dean & others want to Kill the Health bill and start over. LINK

Silver’s chart and explanation of how he arrived at these figures is a rational reason to accept what’s there – "Progressives are Bats**t Crazy to Oppose the Senate Bill. "  LINK Nate goes on and lists 20 reasons why progressives and others should support compromise legislation – LINK You can also see an ongoing debate at his site LINK

Frankly, another strong argument is its time to move on – Jobs, fixing too big to fail structures, systemic economic risk, and the huge economic hole we are in desperately need more attention.  If progressives are going to waste time crying or raging over spilled milk and pointing fingers they become useless.

Bottom Line – If heath care cost are going to come down anything like Silver’s chart shows and the richest 1% in the USA pay for it I’m happy

KISS & STOCKS

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.10% up
NASDQ +0.27% up
S&P500 +0.11% up
Russell2000- +0.81% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

The dollar was flat and so were US markets. The Fed left interest rates and its statement about the future basically unchanged. Volume usually rises on Fed announcement days. In the short term it now looks like the dollar will rise and stocks fall. The Fed announcement reinforces this.

A week or two ago Investors411 mentioned small cap stocks (Russell 2000) would outperform other US indexes. This is happening. Unfortumately, no new positions were bought. Will wait for dip to buy.

FEARLESS WEEKLY FORECAST Up to flat week . But be careful we are entering overbought territory (see below) and if rally continues I’ll be taking profits rather than adding to stocks.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

——–

Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

(Besides #1 Volume & #2 Reaction to News)

BDI The Baltic Dry Index measures the flow of goods by price (world trade)

In an effort to shorten all this technical data I’m going to write on the BDI weekly. The index is in a mid term downward (bearish) pattern right now & longer term bullish pattern (for over a year).  The BDI does forecast world market movement, especially China, but not immediately like some other indexes.  The fact that the BDI is falling right now is an indication of why China & some emerging markets are not as strong as the USA.

——-

The Dollar is currently the #1 forecasting tool (now weakening as a predictor)

$USD - Check out the 6 month chart (to the left) or a multi year chart of the US dollar of the US dollar. Mantra Dollar up = US stocks down & Dollar down = US stocks up US dollar fell yesterday -0.07 . Anything close to or over +/- 0.50 is significant The dollar closed at $76.87 . Technically have broken up through the 50 day moving average resistance level and now broken out through another significant resistance level the Oct/Nov high at 76.82 = Bullish for dollar & bearish for stocks

The mid term trend is now bullish and the long term trend (looking at weekly or monthly charts of price) is bearish

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

. The index closed at +30.13 This is a slightly Overbought Position

It’s spilled over a little bit, but the McClellan index has moved between +25 & -25 for a month+There has been no clear buy or sell signal for over a month.

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Bottom Line Start thinking about taking profits, especially into any continued rally .

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells

(again a little behind on latest moves)

Will wait to sell some ETF’s and stocks when McClellan Index/Oscillator approaches overbought (@+60)


Recommended ETF’s and Trades

SELLING & BUYING

Your Comments - (See "Monitor’s" comments on side of blog – About a week  ago Investors411 sold its positions in GLD. DGP, AMZN & NVS ) – Not interested in opening any new positions right now Waiting for a clear signal from MCellan Index to commit additional capital or sell existing positions .

If we rally into the end of this week I’d take some more profits

Near bailing out on small investment in BAC

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
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