workharder-sm.jpg

I took these two f lame throwing, anti big bank/financials photos from website CommonDreams

2010 Economic and Stock Forecasts

To make an overall forecast let’s look at the past decade and year & the mega trends So here’s the Good, the Bad, the Ugly Almost all the Bad emanates or is focused on the USA

The Bad

  • Free Markets are NOT self correcting – This lesson has been taken to heart by many (see the good – yesterday’s Investors411 ), especially those outside the USA. Unfortunately , all you have to do is watch any of the cable business channels, read the WSJ, IBD or most business publications  to realize that they are fighting tooth and nail against any regulations and continue to have us (the taxpayers) pay for their greed. Even a new Consumer Protection Agency is being blocked by Republicans. Both parties are almost entirely owned/influenced/bought off by business lobbyists and their money.
  • The Deficit -  Time magazine called it the Decade from Hell One reason is the HUGE deficits that started to build when Bush won in 2000. Frontline’s $10 Trillion and Counting chronicles how the deficit grew – cutting taxes, expanding  wars, huge spending programs etc. Once Obama got in office he added to the deficit to stimulate inherited stagnant growth. This only made the deficit worse. Add to this our love of credit and you have the potential for another decade that may be worse .
  • Growth of Hate and Fear Mongering "You’re either with us or Against Us" – The growth of hate goes far beyond the fact that we have far more violent crimes than any other industrialized democracy. We are taught to stereotype and hate everything – Europeans & Canadians (socialists), Mexican’s (illegal’s) Arab’s (terrorists) Russian’s (a threat) Chinese & Saudi’s (owning America) liberals (weak tree huggers) education (elitists) science (anti religion or anti business) and the list goes on and on. Hate and fear sells everything from products to politics and its growing.
  • No Economic Progress – Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman calls the last decade The Big Zero – No job growth (globalization a big factor), the Dow dropped from 11,000 to 8,500 under Bush, plus more in his editorial. The Dow has rebounded under Obama. However, that’s because Obama has kept the same  tax cuts, deregulation, expanding wars, and this time perhaps necessary spending  as the cornerstone of his economics. Another bubble is building . If your in the upper 1 or 2% economically this was the decade from heaven, but if you’re a working American you’re in a hell of a hole. It’s going to be a long time before we dig out.

Coming up - The Ugly However, you can see why Investors411 has beat the US stock market Indexes for the past 5+ years by investing primarily outside the USA . (See below for this year’s results) ApologiesI did leave out 911 which was a horrific event and other acts of terrorism.

Coming up tomorrow the Ugly

YOUR Comments

See full size image

  • The Cynic comments on a very funny political Jib Jab video
  • Stewart on Republicans. His comments are worth of entire editorial
  • D on a web site that locates community banks. So get off your (skinnier ?) butts and out of those banks that caused the financial meltdown. (see yesterday’s updates)

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.50% up
NASDQ +1.73% up
S&P500 +1.60% up
Russell2000- +2.35% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and most major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Most Sections of blog have been revised (or are under construction for 2010) See Positions , Strategy , and Overview for changes

Significant rally in increased and a bit above average volume. A clear across the board day where some new money flowed into US markets.  Strongest bullish sign in several months . It would have been better if volume was larger.

  • McClellan Index at +24.74 = A bit overbought. This means we have some wiggle room for US stocks to move higher before they reach +60 or overbought territory.
  • The Dollar fell a significant -0.56% The inverse relationship helped stocks move higher .
  • The Baltic Dry Index has moved up since 12/24 - Short term bullish , especially for China.

Right now this certainly looks like a market that has "wiggle room" to move higher into Friday’s monthly jobs report. The BDI is moving up and the dollar dropping should give bulls some additional ammo

Positions

The  Positions Section (also at top of blog) has the latest buys and sells (Usually updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

SELLING & BUYING

Results for 2009 . + 35.5% See POSITIONS (scroll down) for details

Monitor (see comments on right side of blog) was right @ 60% of gains came from two positions in China (FXI ) and Brazil (EWZ )

It now looks like it was a big mistake to sell UWM last week. Oh well, nobody goes broke taking a profit, even a tiny +2%

Check out some of YOUR recommended stock picks made over the last  2 week. Some have broken out big time and/or moved significantly higher Use the calender at top of blog.

Short term traders (not longer term investors) may want to go long (something like EDC, TYH or ROM )  until Friday’s job’s report. See POSITIONS

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark