Happy New Year

EWZ (Brazil) – Investors411 #1 holding up +117% this year

This issue of Investors411 is the beginning of a 3 part series on ETF’s, stocks & economic forecasts for 2010. It is designed to educate YOU on how to make the same kind of money others have by following some simple investment strategies that Investors 411 has used for years to beat almost all major US indexes for the last 5 years. But first a word about

Avatar and IMAX


I’ve now seen the movie and it is truly jaw dropping . Some of the genius belongs to Director James Cameron and the rest to the Imax (a publicly traded stock) theater technology. To quote Time magazine "Look around! Embrace the movie – surely the most vivid and persuasive creation of a fantasy world ever seen in the history of moving pictures – as a total sensory, sensuous, sensual experience. " It’s like The Wizard of OZ going from black and white to c o l o r .

The IMAX theater concept is an investment choice suggested by one of you.  Right now the stock (which was on our list of YOUR recommendations) is exploding higher (LINK to chart) in HUGE volume. I’m going to nibble on/invest in the first small dip.  It will be hard to top Avatar, but IMAX is the future of movies & 3D TV is on the way.

2010 Economic and Stock Forecasts

Part 1 Positions

For 2010 Investors 411 is going to keep its focus on basically 4  core positions that it has held, throughout most of the last five years. These are the ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds). An ETF allows you to buy a market basket of stocks or an actual commodity for less than it costs to own a mutual fund and it gives you a better tax break because it trades less (buys/sells different stuff) than most all mutual funds. ETF’s also trade like stocks and have NO hidden fees.

The fundamentals behind the choices of these core positions are simple and  explained in greater depth the OVERVIEW section on the top of blog LINK These mega trends include-

  • Globalization – The key force that is allowing some countries to develop faster than others.
  • Peak Oil – The world has a limited supply of commodities  and we are running out. As we run out these commodities get more expensive.
  • Share the Wealth – Countries that have growing middle classes expand faster that counties that have wealth oligarchies that hoard their money.

Over the years these Investors411 core positions have outperformed almost every major US stock index are-

  • EWZ – Brazil
  • FXI – China
  • GLD – Gold
  • EEM – Emerging markets

Especially this year Investors411 held a lot of related positions and some stocks. You can find a list of these at the POSITONS section on the top of the blog LINK (check these out NOW before they change for 2010)

Investors411 did stray too far from its core holding – partly because of the enormous swings in the market this year. Top gainer was EWZ held from the beginning of the year (8% of portfolio total holdings) gained +117% . The biggest loss was a STUPID hedge on China (FXI) position. It was made because of fears about the Swine Flu epidemic seriously impacting China. FXP and ETF that is a double short of basically the FXI. Translation – if Chinese stocks go down FXP goes up @ twice as much.  The short term FXP trade (2.5% of portfolio total) lost -13%

Several NEW position may/will be used in 2010

  • MOO – Agriculture based ETF – Will outperform because the huge growing middle classes in especially China & India will eat better. Already opened a position here
  • EDC – This is an ETF that does 3 times what emerging markets do. Lots of risk here so it will only be bought or sold under specific conditions involving the McClellan Oscillator (see below & more later)
  • ROH & TYM – Technology. Again like EDC these two involve lots of risk because they do 2 and 3 times what tech stocks do. Only to be bought/sold under special circumstances and are short term trades. (see above)
  • Commodities – There are many ETF’s that are solely based on a commodity like GLD and not based on a company. Diminishing resources and increased demand for these commodities make for a decent investment.
  • Stocks – Because YOU asked for it some stock positions like IMAX will be suggested. (see last few Investors411)

Tomorrow Economics – The Good ,The Bad, The Ugly - 2010 Forecast

KISS & Stocks

Keep It Simple Stupid

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.03% flat
NASDQ +0.13% up
S&P500 +0.02% flat
Russell2000- +0.04% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Brown = repeat statements
  • Green = usually bullish statements
  • Red = Usually bearish statements

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Weak volume continues. Most technical analysts consider flat trading (stocks have gone basically nowhere for the last few days) after a trend (upward in this case) a sign  that the trend is revering itself (bearish).  The problem here is it is usually accompanied by strong volume.  All in all THIS IS A BORING WEEK for analysis on stocks. YAWN – Investors are waiting for the monthly employment report at end of next week.

Weekly jobless claims number at 8:30 came in better than expected  Weekly claims fall to lowest since 7/19/2008.

The McClellan Oscillator (see below) has wiggle room on the upside but is slightly overbought.

FEARLESS FORECAST – same as before "Up to flat week" – Historically this is an up period (Santa Clause rally) Even though we are entering overbought territory – hope of a positive employment report for Dec. & historical bullish factors should keep stocks on the up.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary LINK

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Significant forecasting tools/Indexes for stock markets

The Dollar & the BDI have been temporarily eliminated. Right now how overbought we become is taking on more significance.

——-

$NYMO The NY Stock Exchange McClellan (EOD) Index measures how much the NYSE is oversold or overbought .

The index closed at +22.57 This is a slightly  Overbought Position. This chart has recently formed a series of higher highs and higher lows over the last 5+ weeks.  So it looks like there is a possibility of one more swing higher before we get to a clear oversold position (over +60).

Oversold conditions (@-60) = buy, Overbought positions (@+60) = sell The closer we get to +/- 60 the better our chances of making money with a shorter term buy/sell signal

Positions

The  Positions Section (top of blog) to see all the latest buys and sells (Updated over weekends)

These are positions I actually own

Resource for ETF’s -MSN Money has 821 ETF’s listed according to performance 1,4,13 weeks 1, 3 5, years on a 20 minute delay for daily prices. LINK

SELLING & BUYING

One of the ETF’s we are going to use in 2010 is EDC – an ETF that does 3 times what emerging markets do.

Still holding onto all of UWM.

When/If McClellan Index gets back above +60 will sell some more.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

See Changes in STRATEGY, POSITIONS, & OVERVIEW sections of blog

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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