Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
March 31, 2010

Teddy Roosevelt

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Theodore Roosevelt Association

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Teddy Roosevelt

Back in the early 1900 Republican President  Teddy Roosevelt busted up the big monopoly shadow banks when they tried to take control of government.  Big Wall Street banks have increased their control over Washington for almost 3 decades. Is Barack Obama a Teddy Roosevelt?

Can financial reform end the too big to fail problem?Big shadow Banks have become even more powerful since the 2008 meltdown.”  Worthy editorials & videos

  • Baseline Senerio’s MIT prof Simon Johnson today on Paul Volker
  • Again MIT’s Simon Johnson on Steven Colbert show. As always humorous, but informative video (Interview starts at 15.00 minute mark into show and last 6+ minutes)
  • Bob Kuttner former Businessweek & Boston Glob reporter who has his own mag., American Prospect on banking reform and the need for a game change like Teddy Roosevelt

If Democrats want an issue to run on in November. This is it. But perhaps/probably too many  are owned by bank lobbyists.

Bottom Line – If the financial legislation ends the too big to fail problem its good. If not it stinks.

The Public Option Did WIN

The “inclusive, single payer, cost effective, money saving ($61 billion over 10 years – CBO) robust Public Option” was won in education. This overlooked  bill was passed along with Health Care reform and cut out the banks (middle men) and opens opportunities for anyone seeking help at the college level. Jeff Cohen editorial

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.11% flat
NASDQ +0.26% up
S&P 500 +0.00% down
Russell 2000 +0.25% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made each weekend

Another day of weak volume.  US equities were basically flat. Flat prices in high volume indicates a shift in course. Flat prices in low volume indicates little.

Good news was consumer confidence rose last month. Seeking Alpha (one of the best financial sights out there) presents an interesting long term view that low consumer confidence has historically been a good time to buy stocks. Bad news was concern over sovereign debt (see below)

KING DOLLAR is the major index to watch. (see below)

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell slightly to -4.55 yesterday. [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. -Same pattern continues - We right in the middle so NO clear signal. However we are still in bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
  • US Dollar -started back up +0.21% yesterday.

What the dollar does over the next few weeks is critical to stocks and economics around the world. The dollar has risen 10% since Dec.. This means that US & China (their money is pegged to ours) exports are 10% more expensive to the rest of the world. A higher dollar,therefore, puts real negative pressure on US/China stocks, what you pay, and an economic recovery.

This is why the sovereign debt crisis in Europe [PIIGS & former Russian satellite countries] has the potential to plunge us into round two of the recession. The dollar is rising because of the problems in Europe.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

DWA (Dreamworks) Ended up selling all of DWA for 4% loss. Was stopped out of 1/2 and sold the rest. Selling the last 1/2 was probably a short term mistake because after three days of big volume selling it should bounce higher this AM. Loss -4% on 2% of portfolio

RGC & CNK – Opened a 1% of portfolio position (hopefully long term position) in each stock. RGC price = 17.68 & CNK = 17.98. Will add to these on dips. Caution if Easter weekend movies bomb, these two stocks will get hit. A safer entry point may  be Monday or Tuesday.

Waited for even a 2 to 3% dip in IMAX to buy a bit more, but it just not happening. IMAX is NOT having a climax buying spree (going elliptical) yet, because there is NO big volume behind the rally. IMAX now up 30 to 40%

Will try to add a 2% position in TEVA today. Hopefully at a slightly lower price.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 30, 2010

Christian Terrorists

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

www.talkingpointsmemo.com – Photo – For more on story see link and link

Terrorist Plot Attack

Yes, there was a horrific subway attack in Russia, but front pages everywhere in the USA did NOT report on the 9 terrorists caught in our country. They were, according to charges, picked up for “Seditious Conspiracy, Attempted, Use of WMD’s…Plot to Attack Police” and other charges.

If this group was Gay, Muslim, Jewish, Black, Mexican, or some other minority it would have been headline news in American media.  But these were white Christian militia terrorists and the media in the USA looked the other way.

Blatant Biased and Bigoted – The American media fear mongers what it wants and stories about Christian terrorists being arrested are just ignored because they are Christian.

Another example – the BBC last weekend headlined and uncovered a massacre of over 300 people by the LRA (another Christian terrorist group – often called the Lord’s Christian Army) in the Congo. Europe heard all about it. Did you see any American media pick up on the story?

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.42% down
NASDQ +0.39% down
S&P 500 +0.57% down
Russell 2000 +0.48% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Check out comments section of blog – Both Critic & Ewanapat have some very relevant fundamentals about IMAX & 3D stocks.

Throwing up your hands in frustration is not the answer. Technically, its hard to tell what’s holding up US equities. We had another day when volume (the #1 confirmation factor of a price move) fell as stocks rallied.  There has NO conviction/volume behind stocks for many moons. This week is continuing the low volume quarterly pattern

Holiday weeks (Easter) usually bring lighter volume. Its also the end of the quarter and money managers like to buy hot stocks to show their clients in their quarterly reports. The job’s picture is supposedly better. So why does there continue to be no volume behind rallies? What’s holding up stocks technically?

On individual stock technical analysis using volume is still sound, but it is irrational for US equities as a whole.  Same prediction/Fearless Forecast hold for rest of week.

The dollar is the index to watch. It goes up = stocks go down. It goes down = stocks go up. A new high for the dollar would be bad for stocks.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose to -3.92 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. – We right in the middle so NO clear signal. However we are still in bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
  • US Dollar – fell s -0.40% yesterday. The two day drop of -1.09% takes some of the pressure off the dollar’s breakout to higher levels. What the dollar does over the next few weeks is critical to stocks and economics around the world. The dollar has risen 10% since Dec.. This means that US & China (their money is pegged to ours) exports are 10% more expensive to the rest of the world. A higher dollar,therefore, puts real negative pressure on stocks and an economic recovery.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

YOUR Stock List

This list has been developed by YOU sending in your stock picks, we discuss them individually (usually by email) and if they are trending positively they get included in YOUR list. Thanks to many of you who have sent in choices. If you payed attention to the List published on each Tuesday, you’ll find a lot of winners. One way to back check this is to use the calender at the top of the blog – click on past Tuesdays.

Caution- This is just technical analysis and lots of other factors enter into a decision to buy or sell

NB -Last Week’s comments in black. This week’s violet. Chart links underlined in Blue

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • CAAS –  Some increase volume behind dip, but at strong support level - A risky Chinese company, but its now or never time to buy the dip. If you bought you won. Made higher high on chart. Pullback due.
  • PCLN –  Still consolidating after breakout - A buy the dip stock If you bought you won Consolidation due.
  • F –  Huge sell off last week and strong but less volume rally yesterday -Too risky Looks like its running out of gas – too much downside volume – wait
  • IMAX . Made a strong move yesterday and broke out of  short term consolidation pattern - A buy the Dip Stock If you bought you won Overextended now, but you know the story – buy the dip.
  • CSCO, Seems too over extended from 50 day moving average, but clearly a market leader - Will move with technology. Another winner, but weak volume suggest top is near – Wait
  • SHOO – Consolidating in what looks like cup & handle trading pattern - A buy the dip stock HUGE winner – way too over extended to buy now, but buy a reasonable sized dip.
  • ICON,  Failed breakout back in consolidation pattern - Potential, but too risky. Another winner. Retreated yesterday in weak volume = bullish. A buy the dip stock.
  • VPRT Consolidated and made a move yesterday - Possible breakout candidate. Breakdown in heavy volume.
  • DGIT - A bunch of higher lows over last month in “ascending wedge” pattern & at its resistance level - Potential breakout stock Pullback in weak volume is bullish. Another chance at breakout, but risky.
  • VCI Big fall/volume Friday partial recovery yesterday - too risky  Dip in weak volume = bullish. Faces resistance, but potential breakout candidate.
  • CREE –  Still consolidating a buy the dip stock. Still consolidating in weak volume near high = bullish. A potential breakout candidate. Still a buy the dip stock.
  • SNDK – .   Dipped last week and major rally yesterday A buy the dip stock Another Winner. now consolidating  A buy the dip stock.
  • VSH – .   Strong volume on down days -Weakening Too much big volume behind down days.
  • CTRP – Dipped in weak volume last week, rallied off support level - a buy the dip stock HUGE winner – Decent volume at new high. Over extended, but buy the dip
  • CNAM Fall in weak volume, two day rally in strong volume – Big risk China stock, but potential big reward. If you got guts a buy the dip play. Breakout failed, now consolidating. Again more risky, but buy the dip

New plays that have similar 3d fundamentals as IMAX. Personally I’m more comfortable with this group because I believe in the fundamentals behind 3d technology. Some fundamental analysis included. Problem with these are their sales are not pure 3d plays.

  • DWA (Dreamworks) Think their new Dragon 3D movie will be a success and move this stock up. Dragon’s did not live up to expectations. Big volume behind downside move. Only for short term players who want to buy elliptical downside bounce.
  • CNK (Cinemark)  Still a bit over extended – Tempting Consolidated over week & broke out of that pattern yesterday. A buy the Dip Stock Winner that has dipped yesterday Think weekend Titan’s movie will bomb and hurt box office. Careful, but still buy the dip.
  • RGC (Regal Entertainment) Too overextended wait for dip.- Tempting Just keeps moving higher  Dipped last two days. Same fundamental problem of Titans, but better movies coming up.  Still buy further dips.

32 million new heath care customers (Obama/Pelosi health care bill) means some stocks are going to rally on this increased supply and the growing aging population of baby boomers who need health care. New group

  • ESRX (Express Scripts) – (see yesterday’s blog) Investors411 own this stock. - Broke out, now a bit over extended wait for dip. Rally yesterday, but weak volume makes it a risky buy the dip.
  • TEVA (Teva Pharmaceuticals) Gone elliptical - wait for dip. Now dipping in reduced volume = bullish. A buy the dip stock.

Analysis – WOWLook at all those buy the dip stocks that were WINNERS Some of those stocks are a bit over extended, but there are sill some “buy the dip candidates” and (not quite as good) “potential breakouts. “Almost all of these stocks have the potential for a long term run.

The McClellan Oscillator is near Zero so overall market upside and downside risk is equal.

Best read of tea leaves - This week should do well and Monday’s are usually good. TEVA, & others that fall in weak volume that do not have a strong resistance level are best shots at fast gains. However a breakout from a longer consolidation is usually better long term play.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 29, 2010

Ronald Reagan – Historic Hero

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

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Ronald Reagan – Historic Hero

For most of the World (and me) Republican Ronald Reagan and Russian President  Mikhail Gorbachev most historic and heroic event was the signing of the 1987 Treaty Limiting Nuclear Weapons.

Democrat, Barak Obama, along with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev have agreed to another historic & heroic treaty further limiting nuclear weapons to about 1550 deployable warheads each. Now its up to our Senate and their Duma to approve the treaty. Trouble is  US Senators like John McCain have promised “no cooperation” with Democrats and their is an election coming up in November. Happy we did not elect a man who puts political vengeance in front of American safety. Why we should pass this treaty (all the protocols have been set in advance)  ASAP and not wait is obvious.

  • A 30% reduction means less nuclear weapons in the world (US & Russia have @95%)
  • A 30% reduction, and no reduction in defensive missile systems, means 30% less to defend against.
  • A 30% reduction is 30% less missiles a terrorist can get his hands on.
  • A reduction by Russia and the US gives them a better moral position in asking others to reduce or not develop nukes (Iran)
  • Another verifiable treaty with Russia, like the first could lead to more.

Behind the scenes, those who benefit from fear & profit from weapons growth are powerful and will fight this treaty. Ironically terrorists have killed 30+ in Russian subways today.

Frank Rich Scores Again

NYT’s Frank Rich scored another slam dunk with his Sunday editorial on right wing rage/violence – “The Rage is Not About Heath Care.” Today, when you think about left wing radicals in the USA you think about Michael Moore, and a huge group of pacifists protestors, but right wing radicalism has a clear and present violent side that YOU have voiced concerns about in the comments section of the blog.(See Bob Sadinsky for latest).


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.08% down
NASDQ -0.10% down
S&P 500 +0.07% down
Russell 2000 -0.02% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

Light volume and stocks went nowhere Friday despite a big drop in the dollar (see below). The sinking of a S. Korean warship was used as the reason stocks went nowhere.  This has been downplayed by western governments.

Monthly JOBS report on Friday is the big news of the week. Analyst’s expect a positive +100,000+ jobs created. Some are expecting a lot more.

Fearless Forecast for Last Week - Oops, expected a down week and we rallied a bit. This breaks a string of correct calls.  Expected Republican investors believed all the “Armageddon” hype surrounding Health Care and it would transfer to stronger regulations for financial stocks.  It barely dented stocks. Money talks.

Fearless Forecast for This Week. – Up week. The big dollar drop Friday took some of the pressure off stocks. The conventional wisdom is that there will be a good (+100,000 to 150,000) jobs report on Friday. Remember –  Too good is bad for stocks, because it will mean interest rates will rise sooner rather than later. While stocks rallied last week the McClellan Oscillator fell. So we are no longer over bought.

Believe Market’s closed on Good Friday.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell a bit to -19.61 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. -  The $NYMO chart has made a series of lower highs and lower lows = Bears Rule.
  • US Dollar – fell significantly -0.69%. This takes some of the pressure off Friday’s “almost merits a DANGER… warning” What the dollar does over the next few weeks is critical to stocks and economics around the world. The dollar has risen 10% since Dec.. This means that US & China (their money is pegged to ours) exports are 10% more expensive to the rest of the world.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

3D stocks – IMAX, DWA, RGC, CNK - Investors411 will be trying to build long term positions in these and related 3D technology stocks. The last two are major theater chains.

The DWA, 3D How to Train Your Dragon’s movie opened to a respectable $43+ million weekend, but still popular AIWL (#2 at 17+ million) stole some 3D screens from Dragons. Comparison to another 3D movie same time last year (Monster’s vs. Aliens) $59.3 million. Detailed Box Office info here

Bottom Line – DWA will probably be the weakest of the 3D stocks.  In part because of the competition. If I remember correctly there are going to be 24 3D movies released this year. We will probably see a dip in in 3D stocks today/this week. All 3D stocks fell on Friday and will probably fall today (maybe tomorrow) Would look at this as a Buy the dip opportunity especially for IMAX, RGC & CNK.

Sold FXI position (see Positions section at top of blog)

One rule of investing is to limit your losses – No matter how good a stock or idea is its always good to limit your losses or know when you will sell.  I usually have a 7% loss limit on stocks.

if a Have a stop on 1/2 of DWA at what it was bought for.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 26, 2010

Cleveland Clinic

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

delos_cosgrove.top.jpg

Dr Delos Cosgrove – From Fortune Magazine

The Cleveland Clinic

There is something in this Fortune Magazine interview of  Dr. Delos Cosgrove, head of the world famous Cleveland Clinic (#1 ranked in cardiac care for last 15 years – yet charges much less than other major hospitals) for all sides in the Heath Care debate.

How does he get his world renowned doctors to work for salaries? His concepts on health care? His ROI (Return on Equity) No yelling, screaming and politically motivated statistics.  Agree or disagree with Dr. Cosgrove – but the 40,000 who work for the Cleveland Clinic get results.

Nothing else, this one editorial is worth focusing on.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.05% up
NASDQ -0.06% up
S&P 500 -0.17% up
Russell 2000 -0.67% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

A significant rally (all major indexes up over 1.00%) collapsed in the last hour of trading. Biggest single factor behind the fall was the rise in the dollar against other currencies. The last two times we had a breakout of the dollar (click on chart to see trading pattern for early Dec. & mid Feb. below) the dollar rose another 2 to 4% after the breakout.  The dollar rising historically is NOT good for stocks.  We had our rally of the last few weeks when the dollar was flat.

The problem specifically is Greece, but other European countries are in trouble. (Portugal, Italy,Ireland & Spain plus many former USSR satellite counties)  A third cause of Greece’s problems not mentioned yesterday is corruption or total lack of transparency.

We also have a significant problem rising and that is in long term  government bonds. A sale of 7 year Treasury bills did not go well. CNBC analyst gave them a D. The 10 year T bill has exploded higher the last two days and broken out of its trading pattern. Notice strong positive correlation between the 10 year and dollar.  Basically interest rates (yields) on the ten year are going up. T bill now at 39.01 which roughly translate to a 3.9% interest rate.  Over 4% or better 4.25+% and the whole recovery is in trouble.

The world’s economically interconnected. The fact that our stock market stayed strong despite a rising dollar shows strength, (hope this is what JAB is trying to say in comments section) but its starting to wobble.

Two fundamental factors may help stocks - We are nearing the end of what looks to be a relatively good quarter for stocks and the monthly jobs report late next week has three reasons to expect a decent number – new government census jobs, snow distorting calculations, and some recent weekly gains.

Explosive situation could go either way The rise in the dollar/10 year treasuries almost merits taking out the “Lost in Space” TV show robot with all the bells and whistles and shout DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER DANGER As many of you know the DANGER signal is  as loud as I shout about impending doom. If the dollar & 10 year treasury yields move higher (so will interest rates) not only are stocks in trouble, but so is the whole economy.

We are running up to a cliff.  Today and next week are critical for the dollar and the 10 year Treasury bond. Therefore also critical for stocks and the economy.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell to -16.92 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. -  The $NYMO chart has made a series of lower highs and lower lows = Bears Rule.
  • US Dollar - rose another +0.32%. This confirms the breakout and huge move of two days ago. Dollar closed at $82.16 = Bears Rule

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

All our 3 D stocks, the ones Investors 411 owns and hopes to own are significantly outperforming the overall markets.  Short term – Dreamworks Dragons movie opens this weekend and Titan’s next weekend are adding fuel to their rally. AIWL is still packing them in at IMAX, but How To Train Your Dragon starts today.

Going to take profits on long term holding FXI

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 25, 2010

“Baby Killer”

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Democratic congressman Jim Clyburn

“Baby Killer”

YOU, in the comment section of the blog, have had a rational debate over the tax implication of the health care bill starting started by John Sovjani and now ending with a NYT article from Ewanapat that shows, in part, who benefits and who pays. The rest of the nation has not.

One Texas Republican congressman screamed “Baby Killer” while a Democrat spoke on the heath care bill. Later he apologized, but this calculated move will bring huge amounts of cash into his campaign for congress. Across the country Death Threats, vandalism, break ins, gas lines cut, and even photos of hang man nooses have been sent to at least 10 Democrat congressmen and women who voted for the health care bill.

Here’s a report from yesterday. From today, where families of Democratic congressmen who supported health care are moving out of their districts because of the death threats. Sarah Palin’s website is painting bulls eye’s on targeted democratic congressmen CBS reports

When Black Democrats like congressmen Jim Clyburn (D – Majority Whip) gets a noose & death threats faxed to him it is exactly what happened to those who dared stand up for civil rights in the 60′s.

No matter what side of the health care debate you are on – if you do nothing you condone the behavior. At least tell a co worker or friend that this kind of tactic is unacceptable.

Chimerica

(part 2)

The USA has lost 2.4 million jobs because of the trade gap with China -Study reported in WSJ. Yesterday, our House Ways and Means Committee, announced it was holding hearings China artificially keeping her currency pegged to the USA’s. Niall Ferguson is a most outstanding source of info on this.

Bottom Line – We need many of those 2.4 million jobs back in the USA, but a trade or economic war with China would be devastating to the world’s economy.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.48% up
NASDQ -0.68% flat
S&P 500 -0.55% up
Russell 2000 -0.96% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

The US dollar exploded higher breaking out of its trading pattern. The strong inverse correlation between US stocks and the dollar once again took hold pushing US equities lower. Stocks fell in basically higher volume.

What’s happening is that Greece and some other European countries involved in the Common Market have weak currencies and the relative to them the dollar is stronger. These problems have two root causes -

  • The same financial meltdown that hit us is hitting them. Remember, the reckless lending of super banks/shadow banks was a global phenomena. In this case the Greek government aided by Goldman Sachs covered up their debt.
  • Greece and some other European countries have swung too far into socialism – example may can retire at 50 in Greece with almost full benefits. This is the exact opposite of the USA which has swung too far into greed based capitalism.

Expect a rebound as momentum is still clearly with the bulls and the McClellan oscillator turned red (below zero)

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell to -1.66 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Investors411 manta is its much better/safer to buy when stocks are over sold and sell when they are over bought. When the $NYMO is around zero those who can accept more risk can nibble on stocks & ETF’s.
  • US Dollar - Exploded higher +1.34%. Anything over 1.00% is considered a huge move and this move was also a breakout to a new high.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Our remaining China position FXI (Also EWZ & MOO)

Over the course of the last few months Investors has decreased FXI holdings from a high of almost 25% to the current 5%. China has been an investment mainstay of Investors411 for many years. Unfortunately many imbalances (see yesterday’s Chimerica piece) especially with the US and a over supply of public and retail housing is clouding the future.

This is also true for emerging markets that have been under performing US stock markets.  Technically after years of out performance this was bound to happen regardless of the fundamental problems in China. Our other major foreign investment. Brazil, EWZ is also under performing. Again over many months we have reduced holdings from a high of almost 25% to 5%. Brazil has a presidential election and the economically successful “socialist” president of the last 8 years is not running. Markets hate change.

The overall problem is does China have a soft landing or a hard one?  Yesterday, our House Ways and Means Committee, announced it was holding hearings on  China artificially keeping her currency pegged to the USA’s. Niall Ferguson is a most outstanding source of info on this.

MOO is an agriculture ETF whose growth relies on emerging markets buying US agricultural products and equipment.  Investors has cut this from 10% to 5% position.

Strategy – Bottom Line – Will drop remaining 5% in FXI into a rally.  Investors is building it own market basket of 3D stocks and health care stocks. (see past blog posts) Investing in ETF’s  (example TYH) that do 2 & 3 times what US indexes do when they are oversold.  Also considering YOUR stock list for investments.

Apologies for everyone who just wants to buy and hold forever.  It’s just NOT your parents market. Blame technology.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 24, 2010

Chimerica

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

chinaamerica.jpg

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Chimerica

Without all the emerging market growth over the last decade (especially the last 5 years) my guesstimate is that the USA would have been in a recession well before the end of 2008 & you could shave at least 3% off USA GDP. Gravity (see comments section) worries about the China bubble bursting. We all do. We need China’s cheaper products, to sell to her growing markets, & China buying US debt. China needs our import market & our technology to grow – hence a symbiotic Chimerica. Many are worried including Ferguson

It was Harvard’s Niall Ferguson who made the term Chimericia popular. His editorial What Chimerica has Wrought

The money quote from this editorial (his book The Ascent of Money is better – both WSJ & NYT favorable reviews) and the reason we desperately need to fix our financial system -

“Why should the rest of the world ever again take seriously the American free market model after this debacle?” a leading British journalist recently asked me.This crisis, he argued, is to economics what the Iraq war has been to foreign policy: a fatal blow to the credibility of U.S. claims to global primacy.”

If this relationship breaks down it will have a very negative impact on stocks world wide.

Health Care

What an amazing turn around on the polls over health care  which had been viewed negatively by most Americans.  Gallop/USA today poll shows Obama/Pelosi heath care plan 49% = good & 40% = bad

John Sovjani (see comments section of blog) has opened a debate over who pays for heath care and Popeye has responded with deficit reduction, but wants public option.   The Devil is in the details on who benefits and who pays. You can be sure Both Democrats and Republicans will continue to lie and exaggerate about health care solutions. This is because both parties correctly see heath care as something they will gain or loose voters over. Remember

Ronald Reagan famously argued that Medicare would mean the end of American freedom


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.95% up
NASDQ +0.83% flat
S&P 500 +0.72% up
Russell 2000 +1.08% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Party On - This rally is all about the FED whose continued statement has been “interest rates are going to stay low for an extended period of time.” This was reinforced by two fed governors yesterday (Yellen & Lacker)

How markets react to news is our #2 confirmation factor and bad news does not seem to slow the rally train (see yesterday’s blog).

In the short term – until the McClellan Oscillator reaches oversold or some unexpected major economic event occurs - party on

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose to +23.97 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Investors411 manta is its much better/safer to buy when stocks are over sold and sell when they are over bought. When the $NYMO is around zero those who can accept more risk can nibble on stocks & ETF’s.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

From Monday - “If stocks do not take a hit Monday, on worries over potentially more stringent rules in financial sector, we have one strong bull market and get on the train.” After a two day rally, stocks should technically dip this AM and those risk takers may find a better entry point.

For Shorter Term Traders

Bought TYH (10% position at 155.00) – Will sell 1/2 for 3 to 5% hopefully  today – placed stop/sell order at 155.05. However may

Bought ESRX at 102.00 (2% position) – Not waiting for a dip was probably a mistake in the short term here. (more on this sector tomorrow)

Bought DWA at 41.44 (a 2% position) – Think 3D “Dragon Film” which opens soon will be box office smash. & technically Dreamworks was bouncing off its 50 day moving average.

Would have loved to added to IMAX when it was below 15.5, but missed out on dip – Now at 16.61. Will buy a dip. Note – Hope this whole sector is a long term trade- This includes DWA & other 3d stocks mentioned yesterday.

Check out yesterday’s stock list – Led by SHOO lots of those “buy the dip” stocks are on fire.

.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 23, 2010

YOUR Stock List

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , ,

Putting together YOUR Stock List takes a lot of time (every Tuesday), so there is no economics/political section today. Sorry

If you would like to add names to the stock list or want to get on the private mail list that sometimes get additional info – email me at barrjozwicki@gmail.com. Please check out your comments section on right side of blog.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.41% down
NASDQ +0.88% down
S&P 500 +0.51% down
Russell 2000 +1.34% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Despite some bad news on Greek debt and fears of greater financial reform US stocks moved higher in significantly reduced volume.  Moving higher on bad news is a bullish signal

VOLUME – The bible of technical analysis, and virtually all other books on reading chart patterns, Edwards and Magee’s Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, says this, “Volume is of the utmost importance in all technical phenomena.”"Although price action is the most critical of factors in charting, volume tells us the conviction of the marketplace.”  The fact that volume has NOT confirmed the major US indexes move higher over the last 8 months is driving technical analysts to drink.

You have a small core of true believers who are buying and holding and a vast amount of short term traders. The buy and hold investor simply NOT returned to this market.  Without more money coming into stocks its hard to see markets advance – yet they do and in doing so seem to break the basic rules of supply and demand economics.

Bottom Line – Technically I don’t understand why markets are moving higher, but they are. There are fundamental reasons – Stimulus, emerging market growth , etc., that help to justify a rally, but technically you have to at least scratch your head  Old saying, “Markets/stocks can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose a bit to +8.75 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Investors411 manta is its much better/safer to buy when stocks are over sold and sell when they are over bought. When the $NYMO is around zero those who can accept more risk can nibble on stocks & ETF’s

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

From yesterday – “If stocks do not take a hit Monday, on worries over potentially more stringent rules in financial sector, we have one strong bull market and get on the train.”

YOUR Stock List

This list has been developed by YOU sending in your stock picks, we discuss them individually (usually by email) and if they are trending positively they get included in YOUR list. Thanks to many of you who have sent in choices. If you payed attention to the List published on each Tuesday, you’ll find a lot of winners. One way to back check this is to use the calender at the top of the blog – click on past Tuesdays.

NB -Last Week’s comments in black. This week’s violet. Chart links underlined in Blue

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • CAAS Volume dropping as stock consolidates = bullish A buy the dip stock Some increase volume behind dip, but at strong support level - A risky Chinese company, but its now or never time to buy the dip
  • PCLN Volume dropping as stock consolidates = bullish A buy the dip stock Still consolidating after breakout – A buy the dip stock
  • F Still going up, but too overextended – wait Huge sell off last week and strong but less volume rally yesterday -Too risky
  • IMAX Investors411 owns this stock – Went elliptically higher and now must find base. wait. Made a strong move yesterday and broke out of  short term consolidation patternA buy the Dip Stock
  • CSCO, Like AAPL exploded higher, now consolidating A buy the dip stock Seems too over extended from 50 day moving average, but clearly a market leader – Will move with technology
  • SHOO failed breakout but still has potential Consolidating in what looks like cup & handle trading pattern – A buy the dip stock
  • ICON, Volume dropping as stock consolidates = bullish A buy the dip stock – Failed breakout back in consolidation pattern – Potential, but too risky
  • VPRT Falling in heavy volume = bearish – Wait Consolidated and made a move yesterday – Possible breakout candidate
  • DGIT Thinly traded  Still consolidating in weak volume = bullish A buy the dip stock - A bunch of higher lows over last month in “ascending wedge” pattern & at its resistance level – Potential breakout stock
  • CTCT Thinly traded - Exploded higher too over extended wait Dropping  – has potential but too thinly traded.
  • VCI starting to consolidate Still Tempting, but risky Big fall/volume Friday partial recovery yesterday – too risky
  • CREE dipping in weak volume = bullish, a buy the dip stock Still consolidating a buy the dip stock
  • SNDK dipping in weak volume = bullish, a buy the dip stock Dipped last week and major rally yesterday A buy the dip stock
  • VSH Dipped/fell in moderate volume. Tempting Strong volume on down days -Weakening
  • HMIN Falling Too much downside volume. Rallied in weak volume Too many other stocks look better
  • RINO – Broke out yesterday in heavy volume = bullish – a buy the dip stock Failed breakout, lower low, Other stocks look better
  • CTRPFaces a resistance level & just dipped in weak volume a buy the dip stock Dipped in weak volume last week, rallied off support level – a buy the dip stock
  • CNAM Went elliptical now finding base. Huge risk but huge reward Wait - Fall in weak volume, two day rally in strong volume – Big risk China stock, but potential big reward. If you got guts a buy the dip play

New plays that have similar 3d fundamentals as IMAX. Personally I’m more comfortable with this group because I believe in the fundamentals behind 3d technology.

  • DWA (Dreamworks) Consolidating but some big down volume days – wait – rallied yesterday at 50 day moving average – potential. Think their new Dragon 3D movie will be a success and move this stock up.
  • CNK (Cinemark)  Still a bit over extended – Tempting Consolidated over week & broke out of that pattern yesterday. A buy the Dip Stock
  • RGC (Regal Entertainment) Too overextended wait for dip.- Tempting Just keeps moving higher

32 million new heath care customers (Obama/Pelosi health care bill) means some stocks are going to rally on this increased supply and the growing aging population of baby boomers who need health care. New group

  • ESRX (Express Scripts) – (see yesterday’s blog) Investors411 own this stock. - Broke out, now a bit over extended wait for dip.
  • TEVA (Teva Pharmaceuticals) Gone elliptical – wait for dip. (Sorry had trouble downloading last two charts from Stockcharts)

Note – The above section is meant to educate YOU and is basically technical analysis. Many other factors like overall market movement, sector analysis, fundamental analysis, your level of risk and other factors should be considered before buying.

Analysis - Overall market conditions (McClellen Oscillator) are more favorable this week than last. However they are not optimum for buying (see above). 3D stocks and health care sector continue to outperform. Most of these individual stocks do rise in higher volume and fall in lower volume – a bullish sign YOU have certainly chosen some winners.

Personally I  nibbled yesterday ESRX & TYH (an ETF – more tomorrow) and will nibble some more today in a dip.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 22, 2010

African Poverty Can Kill YOU

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Dr Larry Brilliant

Historic Heath Care Legislation Passes

Whatever side your on this was HISTORIC. Congressman’s Alan Grayson’s HR 4789 (public option) was far preferable to what passed.  The NYT editorial here. An obvious political win for Democrats. If I were a Democrat congressman I would be sending out to seniors why AARP’s endorsed the bill and explaining what closing the doughnut hole in medicare coverage means. The vast amounts of hyperbole and rhetoric on both sides is obviously exaggerations.

For the shorter term impact on stocks – see Fearless Forecast and Positions sections below

“America’s Real Dream Team”

Some times Tom Friedman hits a grand slam – This editorial is one. Can you guess his “Dream Team” and why despite all the political partisanship they give us hope for the future?

How African Poverty Affects YOU

Because of the poverty in Africa (most scientist attribute a major factor – drought brought on by climate change) Africans have started to eat more meat (from monkey’s to lions) because crops have failed. This over the last few decades has led to 30+ communicable diseases transferred from animals to people and spread world wide. This arguement is often used by Epidemiologist Dr. Larry Brilliant who is the forefront of pandemic research. One of his TED award lectures.

Many of  these horrific diseases have reached our shores. If anyone dares mention how useless the UN is you tell them the impact it has had eliminating communicable diseases that affect billions around the world. (see above link)  Also when someone tell you we should cut aid to Africa or poverty does NOT impact you remember where and how AIDS & Ebola began.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.35% up
NASDQ -0.71% up
S&P 500 -0.51% up
Russell 2000 -1.13% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Friday markets were down in significantly higher volume.  Some of this volume is due to quadruple witching/options expiring on Friday and some of this was due to momentum growing for passage of health care.

Over the last 4 months Monday’s have usually been very good for stocks.  However those or you who have followed Investors411 for a long time know sometime technicals rule and sometimes fundamentals. (see Fearless Forecast below)

Fearless Forecast for  Last Week“up week” – All US major indexes moved higher. We lost about 1/4 to 1/3 of those gains on Friday.

Fearless Forecast for  This Week“down week” – Health Care reform was dead and Obama/Pelosi brought it back to life. Even though Democrat Senator Chris Dodd has a very weak bill to reform shadow financing and increase transparency, Wall Street will probably be spooked by the passage of health care. Investors will reason that more rules will get put into the financial system by Obama/Pelosi and the financial sector will lead stocks lower. Like health care, financial reform of “greed based capitalism” may return to life.

Short term expect stocks to get hit.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell again significantly to -1.26 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Investors411 manta is its much better/safer to buy when stocks are over sold and sell when they are over bought

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Let’s let the dust settle – (see this week’s fearless forecast)  However, outside financial stocks, an oversold buying opportunity should present itself.  Also expect high beta - lots of the stocks on YOUR watch list – to take a hit.

If stocks do not take a hit Monday, on worries over potentially more stringent rules in financial sector, we have one strong bull market and get on the train.

Paul R -(see comments on right side of blog) has mentioned that Health Care stocks have already rallied into this weekends vote. They might “sell the news,” but in the long term heath care stocks like Express Scripts (ESRX will be on YOUR watch list tomorrow) should really benefit from the Obama/Pelosi vote.

Short term traders – ESRX will probably go elliptical over the next two days. Jump in early or buy the dip.

Health Care, Hospitals and Drug stocks should see their stocks soar. They were just handed 32 million new customers.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 20, 2010

Just Funny

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , ,

Fox host Glenn Beck addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference on Feb. 20.

Glenn Beck

Jon Stewart does Glenn Beck

This parody of Glenn Beck was the major topic at my gym this AM. Even if you have never seen Beck on Fox the video is worth seeing. Some of you will be rolling on the floor howling with laughter.

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March 19, 2010

Tide Turning?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

-

Congressional Budget Office

The non partisan CBO came out with its report on Health Care. Both Republicans & Democrats endorse the CBO reports when it favors their side in whatever debate. Here are some of the major points on the proposed plan

  • Increase costs by $940 billion and cut costs by greater $1,078 billion over first 10 years = net federal deficit saving of $138 billion
  • Cut deficit 1.2 trillion next 10 years
  • Adds coverage for 32 million Americans
  • Closes “doughnut hole.”no longer a gap in senior coverage

Basically it covers 95% of Americans and cuts deficit by over $1.3 trillion over next 20 yearsWAPO’s Ezra Klien. Many analysts feel that this would increase medicare solvency by 9 years

Is Support for Health Care Reform Changing?

Nate Silver, the best poll analyst out there says yes. The center and the left are moving toward Obama on this. Last look at betting site Intrade showed a 78% possibility of bill passing.

The Devil is in the Details

There is a big give away to Louisiana, because they have a Dem. Senator up for reelection and more will come out.   Hopefully they can be changed later. The obvious downside is that this increases the monopoly the insurance & drug companies have. Therefore the exorbitant  17% of our  GDP that goes to Health Care will NOT significantly change

Catholic’s Supporting Health Care

Several major Catholic groups (Catholic Health Organization most notable) are now supporting health care. It’s dawned on them that we are the abortion capital of the world and covering more people will REDUCE abortions as it has in other counties. Thanks to JAB bringing this up in comment section of blog. See JAB’s and other comments  on the right side of blog.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.42% down
NASDQ +0.09% down
S&P 500 -0.03% down
Russell 2000 -0.35% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

US markets went all over the place yesterday and on the whole ended up flat in decreased, weak volume. This is probably due to options expiring today (the 3rd Friday of the month).

There was some bad news out of Greece

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell significantly to +30.01 yesterday. 0 is Neutral and +60 or Overbought territory. The recent high three weeks ago was 75.33 StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – Once again the NYMO has fallen back down to its support level at 30. While it is much safer to make investments when conditions are oversold (-60) if we are in for a long term rally those willing to take bigger risks could nibble the dip here.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Repeat from Yesterday – “Going to build up to a 20% position in stocks involved with 3D technology

“IMAX, DWA, RGC & CNK In one sense Investors411 will be building its own market basket of stocks (like an ETF) on the potential of 3D technology.

Many of the Stocks on YOUR stock list are great, perhaps even better than the 3 D plays. The difference is fundamentally 3 D has shown it has pricing power. People around the world will line up to pay an extra 20 to 40% to see a 3D film. Think people will go to movies even if we have another leg down economically. I simply have not had the time to go over the fundamentals of the other stocks. Remember AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

Investors411 ETF positions are currently under performing the benchmark S&P 500 FXI (China) MOO (Agriculture stocks) & EWZ (Brazil – just a bit under) In one sense technically after many years of out performing this was bound to happen. Investors411 has also cut way back on major foreign investments from highs @ 25% each to 5%.

Three significant reasons US markets are outperforming other foreign  markets

  • Obama’s health care reform does nothing to break the monopoly of the insurance and drug companies. If anything it makes them more $ by covering more people.
  • Financial reform of greed based capitalism proposed by Senator Dodd (D. CT) is very weak and does little to increase transparency.
  • Core inflation is well under control From today’s Seeking Alpha“Thursday’s BLS report on CPI showed core inflation at 6-year lows, up just 1.3% over the recent 12-month period. The main reason for this: The price of ‘shelter’ remains depressed, up only 0.3% YoY.”

Bottom Line – No real reform means another bubble is inevitably building in our greed based (as opposed to rules based) capitalist system. Home prices remaining depressed means the US Fed will keep shoveling money into the system builds both the economic bubble and stock prices.

Investments – There are going to be more short term (when we are closer to overbought) and longer term (when we are oversold) trades involving ETF’s like TYH that do 2 & 3x what an index does.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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