Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
April 30, 2010

Oil Disaster & Financial Fraud

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

AP Photo

Financial Fraud

Few in Washington get it. Senators Kaufman & S. Brown do – (see past Investors411) Shadow banks and individuals/homebuyers entered into FRAUD The enablers of this fraud were the greedy, over leveraged, shadow banks. The very clowns/idiots/money grubbers in Washington ripped apart legislation that had kept us safe from this happening since the Great Depression are now trying to make everything right again.

Stupid Democrats - What the American Public Gets is the FRAUD – The liar loans, the bank misrepresentations, the crooked individual who entered some of these transactions. Now that you can debate & vote on this – pass the Volker rule, Kaufman/Brown legislation and get tougher on all your proposals.

Simon Johnson has another excellent editorial on this that you should post on your Facebook page, Twitter or email its URL to your friends and politicians.

Catastrophic Oil Spill

This environmental/economic disaster keeps getting worse each day

  • NYT headline The continuing oil spill has reached the Louisiana coast
  • NPR headline The environmental disaster could be worse in size and/or impact than the Exxon Valdez
  • BP stock has lost  $26 billion in equity and fell -8.34% yesterday alone
  • We all mourn the loss of life of those who died on the platform

Oil is still gushing from the break and it will take “months” to cap this. We can only guess the impact from Texas to Florida on the beaches, the economy, the environment and the wildlife that this will have.  Remember, the Exxon spill happened in unpopulated  Alaska.

Bottom Line Politically  -  Drill baby drill is dead

I’ve got oil on my faceHope you’ve been checking out the commentary section There were 17 posts on this, financial reform, stocks and more.

I’ve long supported a comprehensive approach (like Obama) to energy as long as the more environmentally alternatives came first. WhySimple economics- the growing energy demands of the world. From emerging markets to the USA energy demands are increasing and the supply can not compete with the demand.  We can’t build, far more acceptable, alternative energy alternative fast enough to keep up with the demand.

Yes that means I support nuclear energy. But but as part of a comprehensive approach we need enery sources to come on line quickly or we are going to be fighting wars over them.

Example – In my home state the Cape Cod wind farm after 10 years and Kennedy’s death has finally received national approval. But there will be perhaps years more litigation before it gets started.

We should absolutely be investing far more in alternative solutions and strongly against coal because its the least clean source.  A year or two ago I set up a chart on carbon emissions vs fuel sources from either PeakOilNews or the Oil Drum. Will try to find it again.

I reasoned after Katrina these oil platforms were safe – It sure looks like I was wrong.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.11% down
NASDQ +1.63% up
S&P 500 +1.29% down
Russell 2000 +2.12% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Tech stocks which dominate the NASDQ rose yesterday in increased above average volume. Techs and small caps are usually the drivers behind any long term rally = Bullish

Good gains for S&P and Dow but in weaker volume. Lighter volume melt ups are the new trend.= Neutral

The big news for weeks/months will be how much the the Greek debt crisis spreads. A plan will be unveiled this weekend Now, markets are rising on this bad news. That’s =Bullish

Dollar falls back from breakout into trading range. Short term= Bullish

McClellan near zero (but it does have room to run higher till it reaches overbought territory) = Neutral

We seem to have a stampeding bull market. Monday’s have been good for stocks for the last 3+months. So traders should again run up stocks again today. Buy the dip. Short term trades in TYH & UWM could work on a dip.  Lot’s of Bullish signs out there

————–

On individual stocks – Check out Paul R and some others comments to the right. Do your homework if your particular growth stock has dipped down enough it might be time to buy.

The Trend Lives, but the Market is Tired editorial – Our McClellan does NOT show tired yet - always good to get second opinion.

XLFWhose afraid of Financial Reform? Certainly not the big shadow banks that dominate the XLF (the financial ETF) It gapped higher and ended the day a huge +2.29% higher.  They have the money, power & lobbyists to squeeze what they want and get a weak financial reform package out of congress. Investors & traders in the XLF are basically saying financial reform is a joke. One caution volume diminished from previous two days.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose rose to  -1.74 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is close to the middle of NEUTRAL territory
  • US Dollar – fell -0.39% yesterday.  [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules. Is very important.  Dollar closed at $82.01. The breakout of the trading range lasted one day  and the USD has fallen back from its new high into its old trading range. Rising dollar almost always = falling stocks.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

IMAX reported earning yesterday. While the earnings were better than expected, traders “sold on the news.” This is a common occurrence especially for a stock that has move up a lot in the last few months. But even more importantly a stock that moved up 15 to 20 % in the few weeks directly before earnings. Therefore, a great earning report was already built into the price and traders “sold the news” (a Wall Street term). IMAX was down a lot more, but ended the day down -2.86% on a day all major US indexes rallied.

Bottom Line – holding a stock through earnings involves risk especially one that has run up higher before its report (gains 5+ % in the two+ weeks before it reports.) Obviously the bigger the gain the more the risk.

NB – Investors411 makes a critical difference between longer term investors and short term traders.

GLD -ETF for gold.  Investors411 has owned this and the ETF that does 2X gold prices) in the past.  Gold has broken out to a new high and will be buying it on dips. (more later)

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 29, 2010

Fincancial Hypocrisy/ Iran Quiz

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

GREENREVMajid:Getty

Hope symbol from Iran’s Green Revolution – See Iran quiz below

Financial Hypocrisy

Investors411 has thrown a lot of venom at deregulated, over leveraged, opaque, Shadow Banks. However, the reality is the Pied Piper that led the Shadows down their path is a conglomerate of US politicians.  These same politicians are the ones who have been spanking Goldman Sachs and attempting financial reform.

The head line on lefty blogs is something like Republicans Filibuster on Financial Reform Crumbles. However Popeye in the comments section of the blog recognizes the enormous conflict of interest the leading Senate Democrat Senator Dodd (Chair Financial Committee) has. What good is breaking the filibuster if the end result is going to be milquetoast?

Tuesday, Investors411 referenced Luke Wilson’s (from Seeking Alpha) grading system for financial reform Today Peter Schiff (Yahoo Finance) Slams the Senators trying to reform the system.

Iran Quiz

On June 14th 2009 Investors411 began along  series on Iran’s election results. “Democracy Hopes and The Dictator Replies.The dictator, of course was holocaust denying Ahmadinejad &( supreme leader) Khemenei. The whole world watched in horror as the dictators slaughtered innocent demonstrators in the Green revolution. Obviously Iran is the #1 country in the world you’d least likely want to see have nuclear weapons.

In the USA many stereotype, fear monger, and over generalize – ExamplesAll Arabs are the same, Let’s go war against Islam, The only good Muslim is a dead Muslim.  So lets take a pop quiz.

  1. Is Iran an Arab country?
  2. What percentage of students entering university in Iran is female? (be within 20% of correct answer)
  3. What percentage of the Iranian population attends Friday prayers? (be within 20%)
  4. What percentage of Iranians in 2008 said they had an unfavorable view of the American people? (be within 20%)
  5. True or False: Did Iran considered the Taliban to be an enemy after the 9/11 attacks

I’ll Publish the results later today in the comments section of the blog.


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.48% down
NASDQ +0,01% down
S&P 500 +0.65% down
Russell 2000 +0.16% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Markets recovered a small portion of the previous days losses in decreased volume = Neutral/Bearish

The Fed came through – held interest rates and issued basically the same we are going to keep interest rates low a long time statement. This plus a ever so slight improvement economically had the support of all but one Fed governor who also in the past has been somewhat more aggressive in raising rates.

The big news was still the Greek debt crisis. Massive indecision over what the future holds – See the dollar below. = Bearish

XLF - The Financial sector ETF is the indicator to watch as Senate begins to debate Financial Reform. XLF is dominated by the big shadow banks – If it goes down that means financial reform is going to force transparency and actually make a significant difference. If not the shadow banks and their lobbyists have won.

The XLF could also be impacted by the widening Greek debt crisis.

We’d need some continuing bad news on the spreading Greek debt to stop the bulls. When all is considered (Yields on 2 year  Greek bonds are 20%) the fact that major US indexes are a few points off their highs is remarkable = BULLISH

Stimulus packages across the world, emerging markets improving GDP are still driving markets higher. = BULLISH

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose slightly to  -24.82 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is  NEUTRAL territory, but we are closer to oversold than overbought.
  • US Dollarbroke out to a new yearly high yesterday. Up +0.24% yesterday. The trading range was a huge 1.75% This indicates huge indecision. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules. Is very important.  Dollar closed at $82.33. This high is virtually entirely due to problems coming out of the Greek debt crisis. Rising dollar almost always + falling stocks.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Waiting for a lower reading in the McClellan to invest. Although for traders who can tolerate the risk (not longer term investors) a -25 is better than 0. A risky buying window is open. Long term  Investors should wait for more oversold conditions. .

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 28, 2010

A Second Global Meltdown?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Goldman Sachs Sec Fraud

Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein in front of congress

A Second Global Meltdown?

“Clearly the World Needs More Regulation” - Lloyd Blankfein CEO of Goldman Sachs

Well, its at least gratifying to see Blankfein join former Feed Chair Greenspan in the realization that Capitalism can’t regulate itself. Goldman’s CEO and executives testified in front of congress yesterday. Meanwhile across the pond Greek derivative debt crisis was expanding. (See more analysis under KISS StocksTF&A below)

Goldman’s is taking it on the PR chin from the clowns in congress who deregulated the financial industry. The Democrats have a weak financial reform bill and are getting pressured by everyone from Republicans to Warren Buffett (see yesterday’s Investors411) to water it down.

You add the Greek derivative meltdown, & the fact that this is likely to spread to most of the countries that bought into the over leveraged unregulated American capitalist system = a possibility of a second meltdown. Countries facing same kind of unresolved problems include PIIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece & Spain, plus most former Russian satellite countries.  That would be one massive default if it comes to fruition.

Look at what it took to bail out the USA and the world from the first meltdown.  Remember fear spreads about twice as fast as greed according to behavioral economics.


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.90% up
NASDQ -2.04% up
S&P 500 -2.34% up
Russell 2000 -2.38% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Big time toasting in big time volume for stocks across the board. All major indexes moved @ 1/2 way back toward their 50 Day Moving Averages (see charts on right side of blog for 50DMA)

Financial Pandemic is spreading.  This is centered on Greek debt and seems to be spreading to the PIIGS (Portugal Ireland, Italy, Greece & Spain) The whole world will be impacted if it gets out of hand.  Last week Investors411 expected this crisis to explode. The call was just a bit premature. How this is going to impact markets and the world from CNBC & NYT & Seeking Alpha

The last of the above links also focus on Goldman Sachs which is starting to unravel some more in front of congress. Title of this editorial should give investors pause  - As Scary as it Seems, Greek Debt Crisis Won’t Spawn Second Global Meltdown His stock solution for investors is buy if Greece defaults – But what if all the PIIGS & all the former Russian satellite countries also default? = A Second Global meltdown!?

Fed announcement on interest rates today at 2:15 EST -Will they in some nuanced way change the language of their statement on interest rates? Best read of tea leaves NO = Bullish Will this make us forget the problems across the pond or our own messNO = Bearish

Best read of tea leaves - Yesterday’ stock drop was a bit of a short term over reaction to a much more serious long term problem. For US & markets markets outside Europe the key technical indicator is the dollar (% other currencies outside Europe) keeps going up our goods will cost more to exports and profits will shrink.

All of this is in directly and indirectly related to Goldman Sachs.

  • Directly – GS is involved in trading derivatives on Greek debt
  • The whole issue of transparency & corruption evolved from American shadow banks and is a huge factor in Greece and the USA’s fiscal viability.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell dramatically to  -33.55 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is  NEUTRAL territory, but we are approaching oversold.
  • US Dollar – had the largest gain of the year (maybe #2 -I’m eyeballing a chart) +0.93% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules. Is very important. Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up and visa versa. Bottom Line – Dollar gain was HUGE and we are now just below breakout levels for a new yearly high. If this breakout level falls and the dollar soars stocks will take it on the chin.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Check the Positions section for changes in longer term trades. As mentioned yesterday TEVA had broken support so was sold.

Investors 411 is still long IMAX, EWZ, ESRX & CNK

Investors – Be HappyIf we get a meltdown and the McClellan reaches oversold – its time to buy again.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 26, 2010

YOUR Stock List

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Wall Street 1867

Grading Financial Reform

From Seeking Alpha (this financial site does some independent thinking and has almost 459,000 members –  including me) This is a really good analysis by Linus Wilson. It covers major points and gives grades.

  • Resolution Authority
  • Derivatives Authority
  • Ratings Agency Reform
  • Bank Tax (extra credit)
  • Breaking Up the Big Banks (extra credit)

Senate voted not to debate on party lines so fillabuster held. One Nebraska senator wanted a special exemption for WarrenBuffett’s 65 billion dollars of derivatives.  Buffett called derivatives financial weapons of mass distruction.

Conservative David Brooks at NYT has a differnet take in his editorial today Dumb but decent meets smart and sleazy in the Washington drama over how to prevent another financial meltdown” on GoldmanSachs

YOUR STOCK LIST

Lots of Winners last week

This list has been developed by YOU sending in your stock picks, we discuss them individually (usually by email) and if they are trending positively andare liquid they get included in YOUR list. Thanks to many of you who have sent in choices. If you payed attention to the List published on each Tuesday or Wednesday, you’ll find a lot of winners

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.01% down
NASDQ -0.28% down
S&P 500 +0.43% up
Russell 2000 -0.41% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Eyes are turning to the Fed announcement on Wednesday -Will they in some nuanced way change the language of their statement on interest rates?

Nothing extraordinary in volume and/or market moves yesterday.

Ford seems to have done wellwith its earnings report. = Bullish

GS in front of congress = Bearish

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell  to +7.47 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is  NEUTRAL territory
  • US Dollar – fell slightly -0.04% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules Is very important. Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up and visa versa. Dollar in middle f consolidation.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

YOUR STOCK LIST

Caution- This is mostly just technical analysis and lots of other factors enter into a decision to buy or sell

Caution – We are in the middle of earnings season and a bad or good earnings report can move these stocks @2 to 10+% Many of these stocks are moving in anticipation of or reacting to earnings reports. This has to be considered before you buy/sell

  • Last Week’s comments in black.
  • This week’s violet.
  • Ticker symbols are links to charts.
  • Line means stock is in danger of being taken off list.

If you have trouble with terminology email me. 5oDMA = 50 Day Moving Average – blue line on chart.

Well aware that most of you are looking for longer term buys. Remember Stocks are in most cases riskier than most ETF’s. Our main strategy is to buy the dip of a stock that is trending higher.

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • CAAS –   – Risky – Now or never time to buy Winner exploded to new high, overextended – wait
  • PCLN –   Close to 50 day MA support level. A buy the dip stock. Winner exploded to new high – overextended – wait
  • F –  . Risky buy now, better on dip. Winner. Over extended now buy the dip
  • CSCO,    All these stocks (AMZN & AAPL) are to high above their 50 Day MA, especially apple Wait for dip. Winners All 3 are too far above 50DMA to chase, but buy a dip.
  • SHOO –  . Dipping down, but still too overextended. Buy bigger dip. Winner Over extended but could have another 5 -7% dip then run left in it. Risky
  • ICON,     a little overextended Buy the dip. Longer term investors wait for bigger dip Winner Way overextended looks like climax run wait for dip
  • DGIT –    Traders buy a dip. Investors wait for bigger dip – WinnerBit overextended traders buy smaller dip Investors bigger dip.
  • VCI. Twice dipped to 50 day MA and held, but volume could be better on rally days = riskier. Buy the dip. Winner – Bounced of 50 DMA & at new high – Traders buy smaller and Investors bigger dip
  • CREE –  Now dipping. Traders could buy if it dips some more. Investors wait. Big dip then rally, now consolidating, traders buy smaller and investors bigger dip.
  • SNDK – Dipping. Traders buy small dips, Investors wait. Winner on earnings news – overextended – wait
  • CTRP . Weak volume small rally then Fell in big volume Rallied in weak volume – Don’t touch – wait

IMAX is Investor’s411 #1 recommended stock. The others are theater chains that benefit from raised 3d ticket prices and attendance. But they are also impacted by overall box office. Therefore IMAX is a more favorable based on the technology.

  • *CNK (Cinemark) Too overextended to buy Winner Traders buy smaller dip Investors wait for bigger dip closer to 50DMA
  • RGC (Regal Entertainment)  Dipped and rallied yesterday too much volume behind fall wait. Consolidating – Wait for 50 DMA to catch up.
  • *IMAX . Traders buy dip Investors wait. UP over +60% since recommended Winner Still pushing higher and overextended – wait
  • CKEC (Carmike Cinemas) Overextended.  Wait for bigger dip. Winner Still pushing higher and overextended – wait

32 million new heath care customers (Obama/Pelosi health care bill) means some stocks are going to rally on this increased supply and the growing aging population of baby boomers who need health care. Hopefully long term buys. Will be slow movers relative to other smaller cap stocks.

  • *ESRX (Express Scripts) – Slow melt up hopefully this is a long term hold Big dip,big rally – wait. Made higher high & now consolidating – wait.
  • *TEVA (Teva Pharmaceuticals)  If you don’t own buy dip at 50 day MA/support Broke through 50 DMA and simply looks like a bad trade. This was bought when it was too far above its 50 DMA – looks lke a mistake.

New Stocks - I’d add more but its very time consuming. Many thanks to Paul R, Monitor and some others who prefer to remain nameless for suggestions.

  • VLTR . Closer the dip to 50 Day MA the better the buy Winner, now potential breakout candidate.
  • UAUA Dipping in weak volume = good. Traders buy smaller dip Investors wait for 50 day MA Winner if you bought dip closer to 50 DMA. Now, Riskier  buy the dip
  • SLAB Classic cup and handle breakout. Even more extended – buy a bigger  dip Dipped Traders buy smaller dip Investors wait. Winner if you bought the dip. Now riskier buy the dip
  • MSPD But now that the dust has settled buy the dip. Winner has rallied off 50 DMA. Now riskier buy on dip

Analysis – The McClellan Oscillator was at -37.70 last Tuesday. This Tuesday its at +7.47. Last Tuesday, therefore, was a better time to buy. The closer to -60 the better or more oversold US markets are and the better it is to buy.  So until we dip deep into the red buying stocks is less likely to turn out favorably – make $$$

Lots of winners last week because of a low McClellanOscillator and some good earnings report. Carefull this week a lot of our stocks are over extended and MickyC is higer.

Very rough guesstimate of how much of your odds of successful trade/investment when McClellan Oscillator is at the following levels.

  • +60 (overbought) = 25%
  • 0 (neutral) = 50%
  • -60 (oversold)= 75%

* =  Investors411 has a position in these stocks.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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Capitalism Rules vs. No rules

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Sherod Brown – Senator from Ohio – A new major player in financial reform

Rules based vs. No rules Capitalism

The 2008 worldwide economic meltdown, cause even Alan Greenspan to realize that markets needed to be regulated. Let’s look at -

Three Major Entities in this drama.

  • Rules based companies – They create or deliver products – P&G, Chevron, Apple, UPS, GM, and even that wonderful artist who you should buy from. Sure, all companies have some sort of problems and may fudge or break the rules, but they produce and /or deliver products. Their profits are based on the products they produce, deliver and services they maintain. They use more transparent accounting.
  • Shadow based financials – They profit from leverage – A needed commodity to foster growth – AIG, BAC, Lehman Brothers, GS, & Citigroup. This is the group that got itself over leveraged because it was unregulated. Instead of being leveraged 10 to 1 (loans to cash) many in this group reached leverage near 100 to 1 using unregulated credit default swaps etc. . So when Lehman collapsed the whole  financial & economic world went with it to the brink of financial collapse. This is the group that most want no rules capitalism or “free markets.” There are, of course, smaller banks that did not get over leveraged.
  • Taxpayers – You benefit and support each group by buying their products or entering into a loan. All this is a necessary part of a growing economy. The problem enters when the profits gets privatized and the risk gets socialized you and your children  pay.  Now the Shadow banks that are fighting to stay in the shadows.

Major Political Players in Congress (for sources on lots of this see past Investors411 or OpenSecrets.org

  • Chris Dodd (Dem. CT) – head of powerful Senate financing committee. The Senate’s important because it has the filibuster/ 60 vote rule. Senator Dodd snuck in the rule that bailed out shadow banks could get their executives bonuses. Democrats on his committee have created (weak – my opinion – see past references to Simon Johnson and Baseline Senerio) legislation to try to fix unregulated shadow financials
  • Mitch McConnell (Rep) -Minority  leader of Senate. Met secretly with 25 Wall St. Shadow bank types and #1 contributor is financial institutions.  He’s trying to unify Republicans against the Dodd reform Bill.  The Republican line is “complete and deliberate misinformation.”
  • Senators Kaufman (D -DE) & Sherrod Brown (D – OH) – have a strong bill forcing the elimination/downsizing of the too big to fail banks. They have some support, including Fed governors, but not enough. Dodd holds all the strings.
  • Blanche Lincoln (D Ark) – has introduced a bill to regulate what Warren Buffett called Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction – Credit Default Swaps.

Obviously the Shadow institutions and their lobbyists want to stay in the shadows. Most taxpayers want reform. You do have a group in congress who say leaving everything alone, let them fail and bring on the second great depression.  This is all getting played out this week in congress.

Fed Governors have jumped on the  elimination/downsizing too big to fail banks bandwagon, but Dodd is a consummate political pro who is in bed with shadow financials – remember, he granted them bonuses. Most Republicans want a weak reform bill and have historically voted against regulations.  Many traders are also putting their money on/investing shadow banks by buying their stocks.

For the latest see Simon Johnson’s piece last night

Here’s my home town’s Bob Kuttner on the differences between Republicans & Democrats

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.63% down
NASDQ +0.44% down
S&P 500 +0.71% down
Russell 2000 +1.04% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

cookie-monster-diet.jpg

Giant institutions are buying stocks on dips like the Cookie Monster eats Cookies.

Five straight rally days in a row. Markets moved higher in decreased volume. This has been a usual occurrence for stocks over the last two months. Historically, moving higher in deceased volume is indicates BEARS rule, but that’s not the trend. So we go with the trend = Bullish

You don’t need a weather forecaster to know which way the wind is blows. Even with 5 up days in a row the wind is still with the BULLS

Last Weeks Fearless Forecast – “Down Week”- Goldman Sachs, Greek debt spreading, fears of financial reform and even a volcano couldn’t hold the Cookie Monster down = Bulls Rule.

This weeks Fearless Forecast – The problem here is so many analysts see markets moving higher. Since the McClellan is not yet near oversold prediction is for an up week. Beast single reason for this call is stocks keep moving higher despite bad earnings news in giants like MSFT, AMZN and former tech darling QCOM.

Earnings reports hot and heavy this week & the Fed makes its usual announcement on Wednesday at 2:15 EST. For more see

For those interested in individual stocks here’s a list of best & worst of them who have reported earnings. Again from Seeking Alpha.

Analysis from FridayIf markets are down around noon expect the Cookie Monster to eat the cookies, vegetables and whatever is out there The Cookie Monster (huge institutions investing) stared to buy and eat stock at almost exactly noon.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose  to +19.86 Friday.  [Basically, +60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. More sophisticated investors can use the 50 & 200 day MA’s and adjust from there. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. - This is  still NEUTRAL territory, but moving toward oversold.
  • US Dollar – fell a -0.30% yesterday after opening much higher. [Any move over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules Is very important. Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up and visa versa. The positive earnings reports are overshadowing the dollar which is in the upper end of a consolidating range between @$80.00 & @$82.20. Dollar at $81.41. If it moves to either side of that range it will impact stocks.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

The McClellan Oscillator is NEUTRAL and moving toward overbought.  There is still a long way to go before stock are overbought (@+60). So technically there is some room for the rally to continue. However a better time to buy (less risk) or make a longer term investment is when stocks are oversold. (@ -60)

ETF Trends is a good resources for longer term Investors. I have it bookmarked. Here’s a sample on Emerging Markets

Traders will be interested in Paul R’s comments on side of blog concerning individual stocks.

Why are US stocks outperforming emerging markets?

  • They collapsed further than emerging markets and especially the financial sector.
  • There has been no reform of  the shadow financials and financials again have become becoming the dominant sector of US markets

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 23, 2010

Fighting Shadows – Call to Action

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

A Call to Action

The New White House Web Site

Simon Johnson (Former IMF chief economist and MIT Prof.)

You make the differenceThe folks at the Baseline Senerio have joined with others, after the President’s speech yesterday to support legislation offered by Sherrod Brown (D – OH) & Ted Kaufman (D- DE) to take stronger action against the shadow banks. (Obama did not endorse this bill) Nobel Prize winner Krugman’s view

I’ve signed their petition and hope you do too LINK

Bottom LineSince Financial reform bill(s) wind their way through congress a most unusual phenomena is happening – They are getting TOUGHER. Republicans are caving (not a lot but  a significant handful) The harder you push the more protections for  Main Street – YOU, your taxes, your rights, your stock investments – will have.

Consensus on Shadow Banks is starting to move. Shadow’s have even hired and paid a phony front group that has already spent $2,000,000 to pose as a group that wants to break up banks, but actually promotes the opposite. Link to Video

Obviously the outright collapse of shadow banks would be devastating economically. However, what’s needed is legislation with some teeth that protects YOU.


Debate in comments Section

See J Sovjani latest reply – This debate has gone from GM to Dumpsters to Washington Square NYC. . A significant chunk of the folks who are on the private mail list of this blog are artists or craftsmen and you can follow the entire thread by scrolling down at this link

News Junkies

SHerwehe has sen in the following site that lists front pages  of newspapers across the world. I’ve used this site for months and it is really useful because it shows not only the different biases in the USA, but across the world. The US government has a post that actually translates foreign papers, but do not have time to track this down.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.08% up
NASDQ +0.58% up
S&P 500 -0.23% up
Russell 2000 +1.12% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

cookie-monster-diet.jpg

Answer -stocks so eat.

The NASDQ had fair sized gains gains in increased, above average volume. The Russell 2000 (small cps) out performed and the other two major indexes inched higher in increased above average volume.  Markets all rallied into the close = Bullish

US equities greeted Obama’s financial reform speech with a rally of almost 100 Dow points (Down @-80 to up +9.37 at close) Obama’s certainly no Teddy Roosevelt. = Bullish

Their is a giant cookie monster of ”programed traders” [ huge institutional investing] that comes at the same time and to the same place (Wall Street) each afternoon and devours all the cookies (stocks) it can eat. Every dip is getting bought no matter the cause. =Bullish

Stocks rallied despite a significant rally in the dollar. The Greek debt situation grows and the dollar is rallying because the Euro is falling. = Bullish

AMZN & MSFT Two tech giants both were down after reporting earnings in after the markets closed yesterday – drops of -5+% in in post market trading, still down but much better in pre market trading= Bearish

AnalysisIf markets are down around noon expect the Cookie Monster to eat the cookies, vegetables and whatever is out there

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose slightly to +5.49 yesterday.  [Basically, 60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. More sophisticated investors can use the 50 & 200 day MA’s and adjust from there. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. - This is almost right in the middle of NEUTRAL territory
  • US Dollar – rose a significant+0.58% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules Is very important. Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up and visa versa. The positive earnings reports are overshadowing the dollar which is in the upper end of a consolidating range between @$80.00 & @$82.20. Dollar at 81.65. If it moves to either side of that range it will impact stocks.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

UWM – Investors – Our long position, ETF, that does basically 2X the Russell 2000 will continue to hold into the weekend. Considering a smaller position in TYH (ETF that does 3X NASDQ) on a dip.

Many of you are reporting excellent results in IMAX, VCI, SHOO, SNDK MSPD & VLTR and others. Do NOT chase these stocks, unless you really know how to day/swing trade – even then most are too overextended to risk a short term buy.  Traders should think more about selling as issues get over extended. Use the basic strategy – see top of blog.

Again McClellan Oscillator is NEUTRAL and a better time to buy (less risk) is when stocks are oversold.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 22, 2010

Obama Big Speech

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Photo of Theodore Roosevelt
Trust Buster president Teddy Roosevelt – Will Obama show us the same tonight?

Tea Party

“The tea party’s exaggerated importance” is the headline of the  major independent blog editorial blog Politico’s this AM on the “anti Obama rage group” .

Mea Culpa – I do respect the Tea Party because at Investor411 they have won. By focusing attention on their white (in the words of the old Ivory Snow commercial this group is 99 44/100% white)  rage I have taken it away time from facts on the deficit or Health Care.

The NYT’s lead editorial yesterday was on Massachusetts heath care systemwhich 1/2 of Scott Brown supporters and 2/3 of all Massachusetts residents like.”(paraphrase) according to a poll. 97% of MA residents are covered. For more see “Reform and Massachusetts.”

BRIC

The Economist has a  has an in depth look at the top emerging markets as a real alternative economic force to the European Union & America.  BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, China whose leaders are or just finished meeting together in Brazil.  “The Trillion Dollar Club”

The Obama Speech

Tonight’s speech on financial reform is a defining moment. Will Obama be the next Teddy Roosevelt ? (A Republican Trust buster) The short answer is NO. Senate Democrat Ted Kaufman (Dem. DE) is our Teddy Roosevelt – Here’s part 2 of his speech on Wall Street and the Rule of Law

One piece of encouraging news is Senator Blanche Lincoln (Dem  AK) committee has a Republican onboard (Grassly- R IA) for her legislation on derivatives. Lincoln has come up with a stronger bill than other proposals.

NYTs headlines Obama Issues Sharp Call for Reforms on Wall Street If this is true you’ll see a 2 to 5% decline in shadow banks tomorrow. It Teddy Roosevelt or Ted Kaufman gave the speech you’ll see a 5 to 10%+ fall in shadow financials tomorrow.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.07% up
NASDQ +0.17% up
S&P 500 -0.10% up
Russell 2000 +0.64% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Market went nowhere yesterday in increased above average volume. What Wall Street calls “churning.” Usually considered a reversal of trend = Bearish

Yesterday’s grand slam earnings reports by giants APPL & BAC (thank you taxpayer bailout, Fed 0% loans, & elimination of mark to market accounting) did little to move markets higher. US markets have reacted poorly to great news indicates  = Bearish

Seeking Alpha this AM has a big section on the problems  China has. Here’s one article . Investors411 has closed its entire China position (FXI).

Earnings reports continue to pour in.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose slightly to -4.91 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. - This is almost right in the middle of NEUTRAL territory
  • US Dollar – rose +0.19% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules Is very important. Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up and visa versa. The positive earnings reports are overshadowing the dollar which is in the middle of a consolidating range between @$80.00 & @$82.20. Dollar at 81.18. If it moves to either side of that range it will impact stocks.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Both Comments from The Critic & Paul R were incorporated in the strategy section of the blog. You can see them by linking here or at any time in the future going to the top of the blog and clicking on the word STRATEGY

CautionI do on occasion day trade. None of this is part of Investors411. Almost all of you are looking for something to hold for a period of time.

When to Buy? – McClellan Index - Only 8 times in the last year did this index reach below -60 = oversold = a time to buy. Even then tow of those tomes were within a few days of each other. Therefore the total was only 6 times. The last time was back in early February. Its frustrating not to buy or sell, but Investors411 is going to wait till we are oversold to commit major amounts of capital.

UWM – [ETF that does 2x what small cap stocks do] UMW is back in the black and at a new high although only up a couple %. Almost closed this position. Going to sell at or near open today.

IMAX – imax hit a new high yesterday in a “pop and drop” (see yesterday’s Investors411) At one point in time it was up almost +9% and end the day at +2.94%. Volume was @ 3x normal.  Some entity perhaps more than one broke Imax out to a new high. All the day and swing traders jumped in after the break out. There was some China news,but this turned out to be not as big as its headline.  Then the dropping or profit taking came as IMAX fell up to 8%.

IMAX has had  some other pumps and dumps over the last few months. Investors411 called this pump and dump yesterday. This kind of trade is only for day/swing traders (not investors) who know what they are doing and can handle the risk. Not a recommend trade by Investors411 Yes I bought some Imax to day trade early yesterday and made a 5% profit on this.

Paul R on comments section recommends VCI,, that’s held onto its breakout from a consolidation period yesterday. Volume not strong,but it has possibilities for longer term investors

Monitor Likes SHOO – more a short term trade because it is too far extended from 50DMA (Day Moving Average – If you do not recognize what 50DMA was you should NOT be trading these stocks!)

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 21, 2010

The 57 Chevy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

The famous 1957 Chevy

Drove my chevy to the levee
But the levee was dry
And them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye
Singin’ this’ll be the day that I di
e

American Pie lyrics by Don McLean

General Motors is Back

Today GM announced its paying back $5.8 billion in loans and interest to American & Canadian governments – just nine months after government supported bankruptcy and promises to pay the rest back by June.

Remember all those Republicans, especially Senator Richard Shelby (from SC who had Toyota plants), fighting to keep GM from being bailed out even though it could have cost millions more American job losses related to the car industry.

Obviously GM and other car companies still have problems to overcome, but GM, and my wife’s favorite – the Great 57 Chevy (photo above) – is back in less than a year  Thank You Barak Obama – for a Main Street bailout that kept American jobs and taxpayers off the unemployment lines.

Investors, GM news =Bullish

Goldman Sachs

Remember the 3 Monkeys covering their eyes ears and mouths- See no evil, speak no evil, hear no evil. They control Wall Street right now. The gargantuan shadow banks are simply too big & lawyered up to obey the law or fail.

We all know that virtually all Republicans (the secret meeting with 25 shadow financials big wigs on Wall Street) and many Democrats are owned by Wall St. not Main St.

Popeye in the comments section finds it amazing that the SEC is going after Shadow Giant GS because they are such a huge “cash cow” for the Democrats and Obama

From your credit card to your home loan to your stock market trading to your taxes -YOU get crunched by the huge shadow financials. No web site explains it better than the one from MIT The Baseline Senerio“Break Up the Banks”

Obama BIG Speech

Thursday Obama will address the Nation on Financial reform. Who will he be?

MR MILQUETOAST - The Obama who wanted to compromise and turned to mush on Health Care. He got answered by Tea Party screamers disrupting Town Meetings and any rational debate with accusations of armageddon, socialism and death panels. Never, never, never underestimate those who want to (Tea Party members etc.) who keep the fact from coming forward by screaming, fear mongering & threatening.

MR CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN – The Obama who campaigned  in 2008.  Again the Baseline Senerio sets what should be Obama’s message and tone. If Obama simply endorses the inadequate Dodd Financial Reform Bill the same thing will happen again and financial reform is over.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.23% down
NASDQ +0.61% down
S&P 500 +0.81% down
Russell 2000 +1.43% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Wall Street went back to what had ben the standard weak volume stocks move higher pattern. Although volume is historically the #1 confirmation factor behind a price move, the old trend continues = Bullish.

Earning report have overshadowed too big to obey the law, too big to fail, too big to worry about huge bonuses, shadow financial institutions. The profits and bonuses keep coming. Even the Greek debacle which has some of the same root causes is being ignored = Bullish

AAPLEarnings report was a grand slam home run. Like so many other huge corporations the majority of jobs will go to faster growing emerging markets (more customers – less distance to transport product) where construction and labor is cheaper. Up another 5% in after hours trading. = Bullish

YHOO – Down over 3% after earnings. Not as important as AAPL= Bearish

McClellan Index is below zero and this gives building bullish momentum room to run = Bullish

GM – Repaying

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator rose  to -6.78 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is still in NEUTRAL territory
  • US Dollar – rose +0.08% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules Is very important. Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up and visa versa. The positive earnings reports are overshadowing the dollar which is in the middle of a consolidating range between @$80.00 & @$82.20. Dollar at 81.03. If it moves to either side of that range it will impact stocks.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Why you should always check out out the comment section of the blog.

YOUR STOCK LIST is now closed. This does not mean you can’t trade any of the stocks on it or the whole group.

Yesterday, Both The Critic and Paul R put into simple clear term the most used trading strategy of Investors411 for stocks. I can do no better than repeat them below. Also D. on IMAX

The Critic:

“#1 The Lower the McClellan goes the better time it is to buy stocks.
#2 YOUR Stock List has stocks moving higher – The 50 day moving average is going up. This is the blue line on the chart.
#3 the time to buy is when these stock dip back down closer to their 50 day moving average.
#4 A time to sell is when the stock gets too high above that moving average?
#5 AS ALWAYS DO YOUR…”

Paul R

“When a good quality stock pauses to refresh and hangs out on the 50 day moving average (DMA) it can be a good time to buy, this point is known as “Free Parking”. If you are watching a stock in this situation and it starts moving up on higher than normal volume go for it!

When a stock is extended 30% from the 50 DMA be light on your toes. When the stock is extended 50% from the 50 DMA have your finger on the trigger. When a stock is extended 100% from the 200 DMA many institutional buyers (mutual funds etc) will lighten up on their position.”

D

“:):):):):):)”over IMAX up +6.37% yesterday in increased above average volume

There is a play for short term traders here. IMAX is again just below or at an all time high. This is a technical breakout point. What could happen at the open to IMAX is a “pump and dump.” – (See Sunday’s Investors411) A major player(s) will try to break out this stock and the greed will flow as IMAX gets pumped up by other day traders who want to make fast money on the breakout.  You could see another big gain Then those who pumped it will dump  all their shares (the ones they owned form the past and the shares used to pump IMAX.

Obviously you have to buy early. The big question is how high will it go before it gets dumped.  For longer term investors, just be happy when a higher high is created on the chart because that = bullish



Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 20, 2010

YOUR Stock List.

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags:

YOUR STOCK LIST

up  @24% since 2/11

This list has been developed by YOU sending in your stock picks, we discuss them individually (usually by email) and if they are trending positively they get included in YOUR list. Thanks to many of you who have sent in choices. If you payed attention to the List published on each Tuesday or Wednesday, you’ll find a lot of winners

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.67% down
NASDQ -0.05% down
S&P 500 +0.45% down
Russell 2000 -0.45% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Major US markets were mixed in reduced above average volume. There was a major rally into the close led by Goldman Sachs. Usually rallies into the close are Bullish.

Airlines back flying in Europe = Bullish

IBM announced earnings – FYI what an actual earnings report looks like. – down @2% in pre market trading. = Bearish

GS announced earnings – GS is up  @2% pre market trading = Bullish.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell  to -37.70 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is still in NEUTRAL territory – but we are approaching oversold territory (over -60) – A time to buy.
  • US Dollar – rose +0.20% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra – right now The Dollar Rules Is very important. Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up and visa versa. The 50 day moving average is a major support/resistance level. Right now the dollar is just above the 50 day MA.  Think of a huge battle going on over the last 5 trading days as to wether the dollar goes up or down. Dollar bulls seem to be winning.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

YOUR STOCK LIST

as of last week up @24% since 2/11.

Caution- This is mostly just technical analysis and lots of other factors enter into a decision to buy or sell

Caution – We are in the middle of earnings season and a bad or good earnings report can move these stocks @2 to 10+% Many of these stocks are moving in anticipation of or reacting to earnings reports. This has to be considered before you buy/sell

  • Last Week’s comments in black.
  • This week’s violet.
  • Ticker symbols are links to chats.
  • A Line means stock is in danger of being taken off list.

If you have trouble with terminology email me.

Well aware that most of you are looking for longer term buys. Remember Stocks are riskier than most ETF’s. Our main stategy is to buy the dip of a stock that is trending higher.


AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • CAAS –  China stock – Dipped in low volume after making a higher high – at its buy point. Now sitting directly on its 50 day moving average (MA) – Risky – Now or never time to buy
  • CNAM China Stock –  riskier than CAAS but near support and at buy point. Broke support and is falling – Makes fellow Chinese stock CAAS riskier buy
  • PCLN –  Slow melt up continued dipped 1% yesterday Would like a bigger dip to buy. Just got our bigger dip in moderate volume. Close to 50 day MA support level. A buy the dip stock.
  • F –   Forming a support level along its 50 day moving average A buy the Dip You won if you bought the dip. Now consolidating. Risky buy now, better on dip.
  • CSCO,   Other tech gains AMZN AAPL look better. Slower moves than smaller stocks but safer plays. CSCO & AMZN (a bit better) All these stocks are to high above their 50 Day MA, especially apple Wait for dip
  • SHOO –  Dipped last two days, but still a bit overextended. Dipping down, but still too overextended. Buy bigger dip.
  • ICON,    Winner, a little overextended – wait for dip Good for shorter term traders – for 6 weeks its been about the same distance above its 50 day MA = the trend. Buy the dip. Longer term investors wait for bigger dip
  • DGIT –   You’d be chasing, but buy a minor dip. Winner that dipped yesterday in moderate volume. Traders buy a dip. Investors wait for bigger dip
  • VCI Consolidating and dipping toward 50 day MA/support level. Buy the Dip. Twice dipped to 50 day MA and held, but volume could be better on rally days = riskier. Buy the dip.
  • CREE –  Now a bit over extended. Chip stock should benefit from INTC earnings. A buy the dip Now dipping. Traders could buy if it dips some more. Investors wait.
  • SNDK –   Slow melt up,INTC should benefit, buy the dip. Dipping. Traders buy small dips, Investors wait.
  • CTRP –  Dipped in lower volume and seems to found support. Now or never buy. Weak volume small rally then Fell in big volume

The following stocks are related to the growing 3d technology. IMAX is a full 3d stock. The others are theater chains that benefit from raised 3d ticket prices and attendance. But they are also impacted by overall box office. Therefore IMAX is a more favorable based on the technology.

  • *CNK (Cinemark)  No big box office shows till May. Short term in trouble. Rallied at high. too overextended to buy
  • RGC (Regal Entertainment) . Better buy at end of month after dip. Dipped and rallied yesterday too much volume behind fall wait.
  • *IMAX .  Riskier, but a buy the Dip – Dipped, but still overextended from 50 day MA. Traders buy dip Investors wait
  • CKEC [NEW] (Carmike Cinemas) Overextended.  Wait for bigger dip.

32 million new heath care customers (Obama/Pelosi health care bill) means some stocks are going to rally on this increased supply and the growing aging population of baby boomers who need health care. Hopefully long term buys.

  • *ESRX (Express Scripts) – Slow melt up hopefully this is a long term hold Big dip,big rally – wait.
  • *TEVA (Teva Pharmaceuticals) Moving down toward 50 Day MA/support. Again hopeful long term buy. If you don’t own buy dip at 50 day MA/support

New Stocks - I’d add more but its very time consuming. Many thanks to Paul R, Monitor and some others who prefer to remain nameless for suggestions.

  • VLTR Chip stock should befit from INTC. Solid long term pattern of higher highs and lows. recent dip makes for good entry point. Paul R warned of earning report & stock has dipped. Closer the dip to 50 Day MA the better the buy.
  • UAUA (recommended by 2 of you) Great long term pattern. Over extended – right now Dipping in weak volume = good. Traders buy smaller dip Investors wait for 50 day MA
  • SLAB (recommended by 2 of you) Classic cup and handle breakout. Even more extended – buy a bigger  dip Dipped Traders buy smaller dip Investors wait.
  • MSPD [NEW] Mindspeed Tech Sure looks like a major entity pumped and dumped a breakout. But now that the dust has settled buy the dip

Analysis – The McClellan Oscillator at -37.70 Last week this was at zero. The lower the MCClellan goes the more oversold the NY Stock Exchange becomes. -60 is the approximate point that stocks become oversold in general and a good time to buy. So we are at a better buying point than last week, but have a ways to go to -60

* =  Investors411 has a position in these stocks.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 19, 2010

Too big To Obey The Law

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Goldman Sachs charged with fraud ...still has plans for downtown SLC expansion

The Hive – Goldman Sachs brand new billion dollar building

Goldman Sachs Fallout

From movie Casablanca – Captain Renault to Rick:” I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!”

Perhaps Alan Greenspan’s Shocked disbelief in front of congress was real in 2008 – Greenspan ” I made a mistake” in believing free markets could regulate themselves without government oversight.

Investors411 readers understand that market manipulation - GREED – exists and it is unfortunately its human nature that if you cut the amount of regulators and regulations, greed can run wild.  A hypothetical and real examples.

  • Cut penalties for theft, eliminate guards and surveillance cameras, leave chunks of money laying around the bank and what happens?
  • Cut regulation, call for smaller government with less regulators in the Energy market = Enron
  • Cut regulations, regulators of SEC and Justice Department = Bernie Madoff
  • Cut  regulation in banking and you get “repro trades” driving the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Greek current debt crisis Lehman’s collapse (almost 1/2 trillion dollar loss) was the breaking point of the 2008 financial meltdown.
  • Now Goldman Sach‘s has also been accused of “Fraud” leading up to the 2008 meltdown.

Best analysis – “Goldman Sachs Too Big to Obey the Law” – comes from MIT’s Simon Johnson. Also, decent article on legal ramifications in NYT for both SEC and Goldman

Bottom Line - In this case, Goldman Sachs is Goliath and the SEC is  David. GS has a dream team of legal experts that would make OJ Simpson, and the SEC look like little leaguers. GS face a danger of others piling on. We all face a danger of a run on the bank that is too big to fail.

Best Line you can tell your right wing friends who will argue that the left will over regulate everything from Credit Default Swaps to Shadow Banks -” I just want the regulation to be like they were under Ronald Reagan or was he a socialist too.”

Post Script – Bill Clinton has also admitted he was given the wrong advise on derivatives (by Summers, Greenspan and Rubin) It’s time a lot of other politicians admit this error too.


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.13% up
NASDQ -1.37% up
S&P 500 -1.66% up
Russell 2000 -1.32% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See Positions for changes made each weekend

US markets took a major hit in increased HUGE volume on the news that the SEC had launched a case against mega bank Goldman Sachs.  Quote/paraphrase this AM on CNBC from SEC – “The Agency [SEC] is not done yet.” translation – there are more prosecutions to come involving the time period before the 2008 meltdown.

The best analysis I could find on what will drive markets this week. Interesting in this analysis they put the Greek debt crisis ahead of Goldman Sachs. (I wouldn’t) It also ignores the economic impact that the Iceland volcano is having on European economy.

Fearless Forecasts Last Week - “Up week” 3 of 4 major indexes were higher, despite Goldman Sach’s news.

Fearless Forecast This Week – We should have better than expected  earnings, but ash clouds over Europe, Goldman Sachs, European/Greece crisis will probably overshadow earnings – “Down Week.”

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell dramatically to -29.37 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is still in NEUTRAL territory – but we are approaching oversold territory – A time to buy.
  • US Dollar – rose +0.39% yesterday. [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra – right now The Dollar Rules Remember, dollar down almost always = stocks up. The 50 day moving average is a major support/resistance level. Right now the dollar is just above the 50 day MA.  Think of a huge battle going on over the last 4 trading days as to wether the dollar goes up or down,

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

TYH position has been completely closed – O% gain. UWM will be probably sold for what looks to be a 7% loss today.

When the McClellan Index gets below 60 Invetors411 will again add to positions.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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