Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
September 29, 2010

No Respect

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Getting No respect – Rodney Dangerfield

No Respect

Yesterday 53 Democrats voted to end the filibuster on a bill that would give tax breaks to companies that brought outsourced jobs back to the USA. It failed to get the required 60 votes to break the filibuster.

It’s remarkable that almost NO media outlet is giving this important jobs bill coverage “aimed at small manufacturers, including a payroll tax exemption for companies that move jobs to the U.S. Ill. Senator Dick Durbin was the bill’s chief sponsor. What’s more important than Jobs, Jobs Jobs for the American economy and workers?

The TEA Kettle Movement

What is getting all the news instead of substance is the “Tea Kettle Movement”  (Tea Party) That’s just “letting off steam.” The above & following quote is from NYT’s Pulitzer prize winning Tom Friedman

“The Tea Kettle movement can’t have a positive impact on the country because it has both misdiagnosed America’s main problem and hasn’t even offered a credible solution for the problem it has identified.”

Bottom LineScreams and anger gets the attention in our corporate controlled media instead of substance and jobs. Is Friedman right in his assessment?

Investors411 is going an break for a few days, the comments section will be open. Also next week Investors will be shutting down Thursday and Friday. Happy trading.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.43% up
NASDQ +0.41% up
S&P +0.65% up
Russell 2000 +1.07% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - ”The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. CNBC’s Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.

US Markets -

Stocks rallied moderately in increased volume. The NSDQ’s volume was even above average. But average volume is @30% less than this time last year.  Lack of volume shows that the retail investor has all but vanished and financial manipulators are in control.

One of those manipulators is our FED that again used the POMO to push money into the economy yesterday. Perhaps this served as a reminder to investors that the FED is ready to “do whatever it takes” to insure economic health, even if inflation is the end result of all this money flowing into markets.

Markets moved higher on some worse than expected consumer confidence news.  Higher stocks on bad news is bullish.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell  -0.41% yesterday. After sharp two week fall some sort of consolidation is to be expected. Looks like we have had a very short consolidation.  Longer term trend for stocks = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose a tiny +2.16% yesterday.  An 8 week bull run, then a two week fall, now pushing higher. Could be return to bullish trend. Another day or two of positive gains would turn this index’s trend bullish But for now = Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]   Rose to +14.96. Still lots of room to move higher or lower. Location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

The vast majority of stocks/ETF’s move with the markets. Here’s what to look for while Investors411 is on hiatus. The comments section is still open.

  • Same guidelines on the MO. But we are no where near overbought. so still room for bulls to run.
  • Check out the movements on the dollar. If bears continue to rule stocks will go up. However if this fall turns into a crash & burn we are all in trouble.
  • For rally – Benchmark S&P 500 has resistance at 1170 and major resistance at 1220. For reversal support level around 1130. We’ve already tested this level and its held.
  • The bulls are running right now.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore) 2% trailing stop loss on 50% of position/ 4% trailing stop/loss on the rest.
  • USO (price of oil/commodity).
  • SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment) I now have a 2%trailing stop on 1/2 this trade and a 4% on the rest.
  • TYH (3X technology) 2% trailing stop on this ETF. for today.

Obviously choosing just one or two stocks to invest in has lots of risk. Example AAPL drop at open yesterday (see comments section of blog) or GMCR 10+% drop in after hours trading.

Each YOUR Stock List’s had over a dozen choices.  Diversity is a key word in investing. So a less risky investment would be 1/2 or more of a group of stocks.  This also is exactly what an ETF does.

Your can make great gains as we did with IMAX earlier this year (up 65+% at high), but its safer to hold ten stocks, even if they are more volitive or high growth stocks that you folks seem to choose for YOUR stock list.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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September 28, 2010

Mental Health Break

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

YOUR Stock ListPaul R reports in the comment section that the entire list is up +19.85% since inception about 7 weeks ago & +0.77% yesterday.

Ghost Towns – Could be Foreclosureville in the USA & the US stock exchange’s volume figures

But its Ordos China -See more Photos at link.

Mental Health Break – Dancing

My wife sent me this 5 minute You Tube VIDEO on dancing from Fred Astaire to today. – Turn up the volume & Enjoy

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.44% down
NASDQ -0.48% down
S&P -0.57% down
Russell 2000 -0.41% -

-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - ”The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. CNBC’s Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

US Markets

It’s a Ghost Town out there. – No Volume. The occasional talking head on one of the financial channels saws now that we rallied retail investors will come back into the market. Don’t hold your breath.

US markets gave up @ 1/4 of Friday’s rally in extra low volume. Giving up 1/2 the gains is a bearish sign. 1/4 in lower volume might even be considered bullish except the fall came in the last half hour of trading. This gives bears a slight hope.

goose that laid the golden egg

Bottom Line- Ghost town-  Have Wall Street firms and their partners in crime across the financial industry now engineer virtually all market movements.…killed the goose that lays the golden egg…the retail investor.” LINK to editorial by Ken Hasner


Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell  -0.07% yesterday. After sharp two week fall some sort of consolidation is to be expected. Short term trend is neutral But longer term trend for stocks = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose a tiny 0.29% yesterday.  An 8 week bull run, then a two week fall, now pushing higher. Could be return to bullish trend. But for now = Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Our top forecasting tool & by no means the only one,  fell to -1.88. Location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

The MO –  The chart of the MO shows a series of lower highs and lows. The MO would have to go below -20 to continue the bearish pattern. So -20 is again setting up as an important support level.

One interesting fact is the MO is near zero and stocks are near a 4 month high. The MO should be close to/above +60 or overbought. Bullish sign

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Longer Term positions -

  • EWS (Singapore) 2% trailing stop loss on 50% of position/ 4% trailing stop/loss on the rest.
  • USO (price of oil/commodity).
  • SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment) I now have a 2%trailing stop on 1/2 this trade and a 4% on the rest.
  • TYH (3X technology) Bought at market open for 33.48. For today have stop/loss at 33.49.

YOUR Stock ListPaul R reports in the comment section that the entire list is up +19.85% since inception about 7 weeks ago & +0.77% yesterday.

Pigs get Slaughtered – There’s a whole bunch of strong support levels on the benchmark S & P 500 we have to break down through, there’s a neutral MO, and the Fed printing and throw into cash into play that will cause a further drop in the dollar. All amo for bulls.

But gee a 20% profit and earnings season is around the corner. So lets stop & think. Don’t let your stock/ETF get over extended. Remember IMAX got up to +65% profit and way above its 50 DMA. Then is crashed back down to a much smaller gain. We sold for a handsome gain. Granted the MO soared above +60 too.

Don’t let your stock/ETF stray too far or get too greedy. Yes there still looks like there’s room for the manipulators to run the markets higher.

Obviously the CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH Longer Term Outlook is a signal of better stock prices in future.

But Remember – US equities are being engineered  and manipulated by our financial industry. To blindly hold and wait for long term profits is asking for trouble.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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September 27, 2010

The stampede

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

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Why The Bull Are Stampeding?

Massive Manipulation & Economic Mega Tends.

History

  • Globalization mega trend provides cheap and now educated labor force. Energy rich (mega trend) countries benefit from rise in prices due to dwindling supplies and growing globalized demand.
  • To keep up with emerging markets US financials (shadow banks) cheat and over leverage the system. US consumers also encouraged to acquire massive debt. Instead of calling this keeping up with the Jones’s call it keeping up with the Wong’s.
  • System wide  meltdown for countries believing in casino capitalism - commonly called free market capitalism.
  • Attempts to bring transparency to markets failed. Attemps to make too big to fail over leveraged shadow financials go out of existance – failed.. At best weak guidelines set in place. Another opaque financial system begins to build.
  • Some Americans realize that jobs are going overseas and and a wealthy oligarchy and major US companies are making a ton of $ off this system, that also brings lower cost goods to USA.  No jobs, Gordon Gecko’s in control,privatized gains & socialized risk, Main Street screwed, 1 ib 7 Americans now in poverty – everyone angry.

Now

  • China as well as some other emerging markets manipulate their currency. Paulson/Bush & Geithner/Obama throw hissy fits, but do little/nothing. Why - because major US industries and industrialist are making a killing (From WalMart to Apple to Caterpillar) off of slave/cheap labor in emerging markets that are manipulated to stay low relative to USA. They make $ off of China’s manipulation.
  • US Fed dumps trillions of dollars to financial institutions in USA that further finance casino capitalism. This too is obvious currency manipulation. Dollar falls (less valuable because more $ are printed) and stocks move higher.
  • Most recently added – Fed dumping or printing money scheme is the PMOC (see below) Fed promises to do whatever it takes to keep US economy primed.
  • Potential Gridlock in congress means shadow system that benefits Chinese dictators, Oil rich countries/dictatorships, a wealthy oligarchy continues. Manipulated by fear, vanishing American middle class is for the most part clueless as to what’s happening,

Stocks

  • The return to casino capitalism and flood of money into US markets means manipulators (hedge funds, BB?HFT’s, Sovereign wealth funds etc.) are overjoyed.
  • Retail investors sense another bubble building, but don’t understand what’s happening. Why are jobs not coming back? – Obviously they are going abroad.
  • Stocks of the big companies/industries that profit from abroad and emerging markets soar because the manipulators are pouring money into them.

Bottom Line - We retail investors are just insignificant players in a massive attempt to manipulate the forces of globalization and dwindling energy supplies. Of course another bubble is building. Manipulation now has long term consequences. As long as you understand how the money flows you can invest accordingly.

Thanks, for the complements on the market calls this weekend. All I’m doing is watching money flows described above.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.86% up
NASDQ +2.33% down
S&P +2.12% up
Russell 2000 +3.42% -

-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September“The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. CNBC’s Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

US Markets

Another massive rally in weak below average volume, which is also well below last years volume.  The rally is real but it is being run by BB/HFT’s, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Hedge Funds and other manipulators. It’s also being juiced by our Fed that is and promises to PRINT or “do whatever  it takes to keep the economy going.”

The single most important new factor to look at is our Fed’s PMOC pouring more and more $$$$$$$ into the economy. Another 3.8 billion last Friday.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell  -0.77%,  The inverse correlation between the dollar & stocks seemed to have broke down earlier this week, but Friday made up for all that.  Trend for stocks = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell  - Friday. Two week BDI fall. After 8 week bull run trend seems to be changing to = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose  to +11.14 yesterday. Location= NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

The MO – is our #1 forecasting & when to buy/sell tool. Even after a the huge rally Friday the MO is still just above zero and just below its 50 DMA at 15+. Clearly Neutral which gives the bulls room to run even higher.

Thursday the MO reached -20 and , as predicted, this was a major support level.

The Dollarbroke down though major support last week. Even though the daily inverse relationship between a falling dollar and a rising US stock market did not match up the weekly did. It was a/the primary cause behind the bulls taking charge..

Tea Leaves – It the past year whenever the dollar has taken such a large move up or down it usually takes a few days to consolidate or move in opposite direction.  This time I’m not so sure.

Here’s the Bull’s formula – Fed prints/pumps money into economy. Huge financial institutions get that $ for almost nothing. Lots of the $ goes to stocks and eventually ends up abroad.  The more $  that get printed the more it forces dollar down and this too makes stocks go up. (US goods cost less abroad) Bulls run till we get overbought.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Longer Term positions -

  • EWS (Singapore) 2% trailing stop loss on 50% of position/ 4% trailing stop/loss on the rest.
  • USO (price of oil/commodity).
  • SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment) I now have a 3% trailing stop on this trade.
  • TYH (3X technology) Bought at market open for 33.48. For today have stop/loss at 33.49.

I would be buying some of the individual stocks on YOUR Stock List, but just do not have the time. See Paul R’s comments.

Also as someone just wrote in this AM buying most of or the whole list of ETF’s or YOUR Stock List (also consider high dividend stocks) is a way to go instead of picking a few from the lists. (more on this later – see comments section of blog)

I know everyone just wants to buy and hold for years. Just can’t recommend holding for longer than a cycle of the MO (McClellan Oscillator).  Mostly a cycle from oversold to overbought (@-60 to +60) lasts from one to three months. Sometimes shorter.

Remember, we are now in a bullish cycle and therefore, elevated the buy/sell criteria a bit on the MO. (see past investors411) Watch the dolar and its invese relationship to stocks.

Traders

From Friday – “This is again one of those no guts no glory moments.” Bulls still in charge and have lots of room according to MO to move higher. Buying dips of stocks/ETF’s that are not too overbought on dips.

Investors

From Friday – Those of you with little exposure to stocks “may want to nibble.” You can still nibble on the dip if willing to accept risk.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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September 24, 2010

Fear Inc.

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Obama Fineman

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Creating Jobs

Kaufman Institute last month came out with an exhaustive study on job creation. We’ve seen how the old giant companies from Apple to Wal Mart out source jobs my the millions to emerging markets. We’ve been told its small companies that are the engine of job growth in the USA. But it seems to depend on just what type of small company it is is even more important.  One major  conclusion - US job creation is dependent on start-ups and young companies

Health Care

Fear Inc. has dominated what we think about “Obamacare” or the recently passed health proposals. AP poll shows we have no idea what’s in the health care plan. Best example

  • 81% – When asked did the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reported did they say Obama care would increase government debt.  81% answered WRONG .- “Obamacare will decrease government debt & reduce red ink.”

Fear is the mind killer that distorts reality and wins elections. 39% of Americans still believe ObamaCare has Death Panels. Here’s a list of the 10 major reforms that took place yesterday.  You can like or dislike Obamacare, but It’s depressing that so many Americans have such a perverted concept of reality. So let’s end on an upbeat of HOPE

Hope

The following is one of the conclusions by JS from the comments section.

“We need more graduates that “make something”, not all the lawyers, MBA’s our top schools are spewing out. I also wonder how all the time, money spent on entertainment, and all the smarter students going into these fields are effecting us. Maybe we need a rethinking of our moral compass (not just Gordon Gecko’s). Maybe the current state of the economy will encourage better behavior. They happened after the depression; maybe some good things will come out now.”

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.72% down
NASDQ -0.32% down
S&P -0.83% down
Russell 2000 -1.20% -

-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September“The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. CNBC’s Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

US Markets

Up till yesterday the super computers of the BB/HFT’s had been buying into the close. Looks like some something spooked them and volume increased as they sold late in the afternoon. Probably poor economic news out of Ireland/Europe. Selling & increased volume into close = Bearish

How markets react to news is an important forecasting tool. For the last few weeks markets had been brushing off the bad news,but this time they sold on the bad news. It’s when stocks sell on good news that you really have to worry. We’re not there (yet), but we are back in Neutral territory for this indicator.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose +0,23% yesterday, but broke a major support level the day before. The inverse correlation between the dollar & stocks broke down earlier this week (not yesterday). First time since late June that this has happened. Trend for stocks = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell  -1.01% yesterday. Two week BDI fall. After 8 week bull run trend seems to be changing to = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell  to -20.19 yesterday. Trend is now bearish, but at support level (see yesterday’s Investors411) = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

The MO is our #1 forecasting tool.

  • The -20.19 puts us closer to oversold.
  • Zero is usually the middle, but the 50 DMA is at +16.36. So we’re a bit closer to oversold.
  • The area around -20 is a support level (see yesterday’s Investors411)

This is one of those transition’s points. Regular stock traders will probably push markets higher in the AM. After a three week rally a three day drop, especially in light volume is just too tempting for traders.  The real question becomes what will the BB/HFT’s do into the close.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current Longer Term positions -

  • EWS (Singapore)
  • USO (price of oil/commodity)- fall of dollar negatively impacting this.
  • SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment) I now have a 2% trailing stop on this trade and I’m close to getting stopped out of this trade.

Investors

  • -20 on the MO is a better entry point  than any number higher, but it is still not overbought territory or -60
  • The benchmark S&P 500 yesterday closed at 1124 below its former major resistance/now support level at 1130.
  • The good news is a higher price high has been established at 1149
  • The bad news is we are down below breakout levels
  • Hopefully (for bulls) we’ll have a higher low and our cautiously bullish outlook will continue.

Those investors not invested at all or with a small investment in equities may consider nibbling on a recommended emerging market ETF (see Position section of blog). Waiting for a bigger dip is obviously a much safer play.

Traders

This is again one of those no guts no glory moments that do not always work. You might nibble a new position that looks promising. See YOUR stock list, some some of the leveraged ETF’s suggested in positions. Paul R updates lots of the stocks in the comments section of the blog.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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September 23, 2010

The Dying Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

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The Dying Democracy –  We the People

  • Tea Party just got $1,000,000 from an anonymous donor
  • The hidden money “stampeding” in elections from Time magazine (Thanks to Ewanapat for this reference)
  • Fox News $1,000,000 contribution to Republicans
  • Recent Supreme Court decision that opened the door for Corporations and other entities to unlimitedly fund propaganda against any political candidate.

Do you really believe your measly one vote and restricted financial contribution has the power of a $1,000,000 dollar anonymous contribution in an election?

Wake up and smell the coffee!

  • Obama caved in to the Insurance monopoly on health care because they give fat checks
  • McCain has gone mute on campaign finance reform because this oligarchy is behind him
  • Islamophobia is flourishing because the weapons industry’s has massive financial contribution power .

In Alaska and Delaware massive amounts of money came into tea party candidates and they came from 20 to 30 % down in polls in 6 weeks to beat the establishment Republican candidates with a blizzard of negative adds. In Alaska the known amount of $ that came in (almost all from outside the state) was over $600,000 or $more than $10 a vote. This does not count all those anonymous negative adds.

This blog will continue to be The Resistance for those who want to terminate American democracy. Yes, I’ll send in my limited transparent contribution, speak out for we the people, and vote.

Mega trend - vanishing middle/working class in America. Growing working/middle class in emerging markets. Loss of democratic values.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.20% down
NASDQ -0.63% flat
S&P -0.48% up
Russell 2000 -1.20% -

-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September“The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.

Term of the Day – Overextended - This is when a stock, sector or index goes up too far too fast, in usually increased volume, It simply runs out of buyers and has to consolidate. There are many ways to measure this. Investors411, for bullish stocks. uses the distance a stock is from its 50 Day Moving Average (blue line on charts)

Simply by looking at one of the many charts referenced in Investors411 you can see how far away (space between) the 50 Day Moving Average is from the price. The more volume there is adds to its over extension – more buyers piling in.  You would be chasing a winner and it is better to wait for some sort of pull back or consolidation to invest.

US Markets

Again thanks to Paul R for analysis of YOUR Stock LIst.  14.4% gains! Will try to put together another stock list after earnings season has matured. (earnings can radically alter the price of stocks) Look for Paul’s in Comments section of blog.

Fed continues to print and inject $ in to the economy – $2 billion yesterday. Just what are the banks doing with this $? Who knows? We have a less than transparent financial system. Bottom Line here is the worry about deflation. Fed sure looking like it wants to push dollar lower.

“Stocks won’t crash unless earnings do” from Seeking Alpha author. Fed, sure looks like its manipulating to get a good earning season from globalized US firms.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, fell significant  -0.76% yesterday breaking a major support levelBullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell  -2.97% yesterday. 8th down day in a row. After 8 week bull run trend seems to be changing to = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell  to +3.87 yesterday. Trend is bearish Location of index as far as buying/selling or overbought/oversold = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Something’s big is happening. The dollar and stocks for three months have had almost a 90% inverse correlation. The dollar drops, US goods (exports) cost less abroad and therefore profits rise, and stocks rise. The dollar, falling almost 2% in two days & breaking a support level should have had stocks exploding higher. It didn’t.

A weak dollar also shows a fear of weakens in the American economy relative to others.

Currency trading is a huge market, that every major entity tries to manipulate. However because of its size its hard to manipulate for long in an open market. The Chinese (and some others) basically have a closed market on their currency.

Bottom Line - When a long term pattern breaks down it almost always means change of some type. Fundamentally,lower dollar = higher profits for US exporters is going to help globalized companies, but now the soundness of the American economy is also being questioned.  This is Bearish

The MO – In tech speak this chart has broken down from what’s called a “head and shoulders” trading pattern, Usually means there is more downside risk & area around -20 on MO is now a new support level.

Bottom Line - Gold is historically a hedge against a falling dollar, The dollar melting rapidly through support levels also shows perceived strength in Emerging Markets economies,

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current Longer Term positions -

  • EWS (Singapore)
  • USO (price of oil/commodity)- fall of dollar negatively impacting this.
  • SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment) I have a 2% trailing stop on this trade

Because of falling dollar looking to add to long term holding in emerging markets (see POSITION section of blog) Only caution is do NOT chase stocks that are too over extended from 5oDMA  Would like to see MO reach @-20 before nibbling.

Biggest mistake Investors411 has made this year was talking about but not buying GLD (ETF for gold) earlier this year.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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September 22, 2010

WOW +14.4% Gains

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Bada Bing, Bada Bang, Bada Boom!

YOUR Stock List gained +14.4% vs. a gain of +1.5% for the benchmark S&P 500. Just like YOUR first stock list earlier this year we crushed our benchmark index over the last 6+ weeks. (more below)

Fear Mongering/Globalization/Jobs

The biggest plate of warm turds being fear mongered to the US public through the Tea Party and like minded folks is that if we don’t extend tax cuts on the ruling oligarchy job growth will suffer.

Investors411 readers already know that jobs are being outsourced abroad through “scaling”.

Now, lets take a look at some figures from when we had the massive tax cut to the rich in 2000 to today. Figures are from the Financial Times and if you would like a video presentation check out Cenk Uyger’s presentation (sorry short add before 4 minute presentations)

  1. $1.3 trillion in tax cuts for the rich since 2000.(not compounded) Result – we loose 7.3 million jobs.
  2. 1950 to 1990 we have 3.5 to 7.4% real growth Compare - 2000 to now 1% real growth.
  3. 1950 to 1990 investment in equipment & software 5.7% to 9.9% Compare – 2000 to now 1.9%

So where did all that money go?

  1. Emerging markets grew 120% Compare to -6% for the USA (FSCI emerging market stock index)
  2. US investment abroad in 2000 $1.3 trillion Compare to now $3.2 trillion

This means that the our weathy oligarchy spent $1.9 trillion (much more than just their $1.3 tax cut dollars) in creating jobs jobs jobs in China India and throughout the globalized economy.

Add to this figure Shadow banks money going abroad, TARP money going abroad, and US corporations building and investing abroad.  The American working class is getting crushed by our corporate oligarchy.

PostscriptIf you like you can officially call me a hypocrite. Because for 6 years I’ve been telling anyone who’d listen to invest in emerging markets. If you go to the POSITIONS section at top of blog and click on it. Scroll down and you will find a list of emerging market recommended ETF’s to invest in. We have made money together

My only defense is every major US company is globally connected to some degree. Even smaller companies are at least indirectly connected to globalization.

But the Bottom Line isTax those who profit most off globalization and use it to help the US working class who are getting clobbered.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.07% up
NASDQ -0.28% up
S&P -0.26% up
Russell 2000 -0.79% -

-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.

US Markets

Very Strange – Usually the big rally day (2 days ago) has more volume than the confirmation day that follows. We did basically hold onto the gains so the rally is confirmed. However this and what’s happened in the dollar (see below) are breaking usual patterns.

Bada Bing Bada Bang, Bada Boom

Paul R has computed the results of YOUR Stock List (more info in  POSITION section at top of blog)

14.4% UP! Your Stock List (based on a dollar weighted index) from 8/3 to the close on 9/20! S&P 500 was up about 1.5% at the same time. PCLN has enjoyed a 48% gain during this time and it skews the return of the whole list a bit, but the dollar weighted chart buys an equal dollar amount of each stock so PCLN doesn’t effect the chart too much.

Here are the actual PERCENTAGE gains of the stock on the list from the 8/3 close to the 9/20 close.

AAPL 8.37
BIDU 7.75
SAM 1.95
UFS 4.39
F -1.59
GMCR 18.70
HMIN 12.60
IMAX 6.57
PCLN 48.91
RADS 25.46
SWKS 17.87
UPS 1.02
VCI -3.81

After yesterdays pop, many of these stocks “may” pause to refresh for a day or two (maybe). When a stock pauses to refresh like this, and takes off again this may give a chance to buy.”

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, crashed  -1.10% yesterday. It ended the day right above key support level. = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell a -2.51%yesterday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. 7th down day in a row, with rate of fall decreasing. After 8 week bull run trend could be changing to bearish,= Neutral/Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell  to +23.67 yesterday.  A huge drop considering how small the fall was on the NYSE. Back just above 50 DMA/ support level which is at 19.03 Trend = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Something’s big is happening. The dollar fell a huge -1.10% and this usually translates into a sizable stock rally. Yet equities went nowhere. We are just above major support for the dollar. Is the inverse relationship between stocks & the dollar breaking down? Is the dollar @ to crash and burn? This answer is above my pay level.

Reality is there a whole lot of major institutions doing a whole lot of market manipulation (hedge funds, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, BB/HFT’s etc.)

One clear pattern/trend developing – We keep bumping up close to +60 on the MO & stocks can’t get beyond this now strong resistance level. It might be that stocks are just too overbought to move higher.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current Longer Term positions -

  • EWS (Singapore)
  • USO (price of oil/commodity)
  • SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment) I have a 3% trailing stop on this trade

If, we get up over +60 on the MO and  the Dow/major indexes rally – that would be a selling or shorting point.

Recommendations -For everyone who uses trailing stops on trades -It may be time to tighten them. If you’ve made profits over the last month, no one ever went broke by cashing some of them in. That’s what the Tea Leaves seem to be saying.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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September 21, 2010

The List

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Casualty Battle for castle Bear Skull yesterday as Bulls stampede

Again a must see short video from Dr George Gerbner on Violence

Hope you joined us in making $. Yesterday Investors411 called for a rally –  Castle Bear Scull fell and, as predicted, BULLS ralliedNot guts no glory – I’d love to wait for a 100 point Dow dip, but you can feel the bulls breath & it may never come before the rally.” (more below) .

Jim’s List

Here’s a short list of Senate candidates I’m supporting either with cash and in one case time. I also like F.S.’s Congressman Grayson in Florida. He’s been “change we can believe in.” I’ve tried to choose close races and focused on solid candidates like those who had the conviction to vote yes to break up shadow banks. The other criteria was if they were running against someone that is truly over the edge on the far right.

#1 Russ Feingold Wisconsin – Progressive maverick who haas done everything from more body armor on HV vehicles in Iraq to campaign finance reform.

#2 Harry Reid Nevada – Harry did vote to break up the shadow banks,but it is more his Tea party opponent who is the concern. Example she no longer wants us to be the leader of the free world – she wants us out of the UN.

#3 Alexi Giannoulias Illinois – Close race & Alexi does not take a dime from corporate PAC’s or federal lobbyists.

#4 Chris Coons Delaware – Good man in race against Tea Party/Sarah Palin opponent whose latest scandal is being investigated for stealing living expenses from her campaign fund. See my post in comments section of blog for this.

#5 Barbara Boxer California – Strong progressive who is running against someone who did a poor job running HP computers. Her opponent knows how to outsource jobs.

That’s my list in order of preference. Barr thanks for letting me publish them and you guys for asking him for it in the comments section of the blog for the list

Jim J.

[Jim's right - Lots of you in comments section were vocal about wanting his list - so here it is. Like the list? Don't like the list? Have your own list of candidates from whatever party. Post them in the comments section of the blog. Barr]


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.37% down
NASDQ +1.74% down
S&P +1.52% down
Russell 2000 +2.85% -

-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September“The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Term for the Day -Over extended – From Investopedia

US Markets

US stock markets rallied is what has become standard – reduced from day before and below  average volume. Just about every standard text book on stock analysis uses volume as the  a very or most significant factor in a price move. This is no longer the case for many many months.

Long Term Is this a bubble building? – Yes Here’s what’s holding us up technically & fundamentally

  • You have a bunch of hard core investors who are holding onto stocks no matter what
  • Companies are buying back stock instead of creating jobs or using $ for expanded research.
  • BB/HFT’s trading.
  • Investments by wealth sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds (the world’s oligarchs)
  • A central bank that keeps pouring/printing money ($5 billion yesterday) into the economy
  • Emerging markets are red hot. US money is investing abroad in these emerging markets – not US jobs.

Bubbles can take years to build – Look at the stock market leading up to the housing/finance crisis. So for now we ride the wave using the MO as our guide.

Obama gave an hour long town hall for  the ultra right wing financial channel CNBC and stocks rallied in front of & after his speech.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, fell  -0.08% yesterday. Dollar seems to be starting another consolidation but longer term, falling dollar trend for stocks = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell a -1.79% yesterday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. 6th down day in a row, with rate of fall decreasing. After 8 week bull run trend could be changing to bearish, but still= Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose  to +48.47 yesterday. We’re only 11.5 points away from overbought territory, but still = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

The benchmark S&P 500 stands at 1143 and just about every analyst is telling their client that 1220 is the next serious resistance level. Also, the strong triple top resistance level or castle bear skull was shattered (see yesterday’s Investors411)

Bulls are going to do everything they can to drive stocks to 122o. Today is a confirmation of rally day.

  • give back over 1/2 of the gains bearish
  • the less we retreat the better
  • Adding to gains bullish

Our early change to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH seems to have been the right call.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current Longer Term positions –  EWS (Singapore), USO (price of oil/commodity) SSO (2x what S&P does- this ETF is more a trade that may turn into an investment)

If, we get up over +60 on the MO and  the Dow/major indexes rally – that would be a selling or shorting point.

Since we now have a bullish trend Investors411 is going to adopt a different set of parameters around the MO.  (see earlier Investors411)  Traders instead of waiting for -60 on the MO the area around +20 or the 50 DMA seems to be a support level. Just remember over the last 3 years 3 months is the maximum period the MO has gone without reaching -60.

We can also allow for a little bit more on the upside of the MO (+60)

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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September 20, 2010

Castle Bear Skull

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

The Battle for Castle Bear Skull (See Stocks below)

The New Gunslingers

Today’s Investors411 is using analogies to violence, wars, and brutality because we have all become so brainwashed by it. My mind is totally desensitized to violence because of a lifetime of TV. This weekend’s football & violent TV shows have taken their toll. I watched well over 100 people, killed, brutalized, raped etc.

How desensitized to Violence are You? Short Video presentation on how violence is used to brainwash YOU & get your attention. Thanks to Sherwehe for finding this. Dr George Gerbner is the expert

Economically, here in the USA we have been wounded. But for the US stock market and other Stock Markets throughout the world there are new Gunslingers that control/manipulate stocks. [NB - US economic's is often NOT in synch with stock markets] Their firing high powered machine guns to your singe shot rifle. This is a wealthy worldwide oligarchy of investors.

  • The BB/HFT’s (see many past Investors411s)
  • Sovereign Wealth Funds – (Think big exporting countries/Oil rich dictatorships)
  • Emerging Market Investors – (Perhaps some not as filthy rich as everyone else – a growing upper middle classes along with controling oligarchy)
  • Hedge Funds (Depositories for wealthy investors whose top managers can make  $900,000 per hour and get taxed at 15%)
  • Central Banks (Not exactly new gunslingers, but most countries try to manipulate their currency lower so their exports cost less abroad)

YOUR Comments

Coming tomorrow is Jim J. list of candidates to invest in. It’s rare, but there were comments over the weekend on Stocks Paul R & The Critic) and Yankee Bob takes on one of the major industry groups that makes up the growing Corpocracy (vs. Democracy) in the USA.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.12% up
NASDQ +0.54% up
S&P -0.08% up
Russell 2000 +0.56% -

-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September“The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Term for the Day -Technical Analysis (TA)- From Investopedia

“Technical analysts believe that the historical performance of stocks and markets are indications of future performance.

In a shopping mall, a fundamental analyst would go to each store, study the product that was being sold, and then decide whether to buy it or not. By contrast, a technical analyst would sit on a bench in the mall and watch people go into the stores. Disregarding the intrinsic value of the products in the store, the technical analyst’s decision would be based on the patterns or activity of people going into each store.”

For me TA is looking at charts and finding patterns- Reasons TA works as a forecasting tool tomorrow.

US Markets -

Friday’s was what’s called “options expiration Friday”. Hard to use as a forecast tool because the increased volume is traders covering (buying) options that are coming due the third Friday of the month. We will go over options later this week.  YOU can look it up in Investopedia.com today.

Below is the same chart of the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) that 10,000+++ technical analysts are showing their clients and 1,000,000+++ traders have already identified. It’s from Stockcharts.com - A free site that Investors411 uses for all its charting data.

To everyone who follows Technical analysis this chart screams today (perhaps this week) is REALLY important.

The SPX is at a triple top. Three times the bulls have charged the bears cave or Castle Bear Skull (my term for wannabe victorious bulls to call the bears resistance level) and twice before the bears have held. Everyone knows the bears are tough at this point. Lots of bets are being placed on the bears or bulls will win. Bears win markets go down and the level @ SPX 1130 becomes a super strong resistance level. Bulls win and its rally on.

The annotations on the above chart were written by John Nyaradi

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, rose  +0.20% Friday. The dollar broke down below its short term support level, but recovered – Bearish short term (daily) sign for stocks. But, longer term, Falling dollar trend for stocks = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell a -2.23% Friday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. Fifth down day in a row, with rate of fall decreased. After 8 week bull run trend could be changing to bearish, but still= Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose slightly to +24.97 yesterday. Note – While zero is the center of this chart the 50 DMA is at 19.29 That’s a support level. = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

From Friday -If the baby Bull, pictured earlier this week is going to get on its feet, this would be the time to rise…Perhaps Monday will be the key.

Let the battle for Castle Bear Scull begin.

This battle is going to get manipulated by everyone from HFT’s to Hedge Funds (that often are HFT’s)

Lots of bears believe that the bulls are depleted – too many up days have created over bought conditions and the US/Europe economic news is lousy. Oil prices have fallen recently and are near support levels.  The advantage the bulls have is

  • Momentum – The rising blue line on chart – That’s the 50 Day Moving Average of Price.
  • Many Emerging Markets have already busted out and taken over their castle Bear Skulls.
  • The MO has a lot of “wiggle room” to move higher – The MO’s 50 DMA is high and its got 35 points between where it now stands and 60 – overbought territory.

Monday’s are usually the day of the week that bulls make their charge. Ironically, my major concern is too may analysts are thinking/predicting a bull’s victory.

Almost forgot – Watch the dollar – UUP (ETF for Dollar) If it breaks down, bulls have another army of reinforcements.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current Longer Term positions –  EWS (Singapore) & USO (price of oil/commodity)

TradersShort term trend is bullish for stocks. If we can get @ a 100 point drop in Dow and you can tolerate risk – you could nibble. Not guts no glory – I’d love to wait for a 100 point Dow dip, but you can feel the bulls breath & it may never come before the rally.

There’s lots of choices (see Positions sections of blog for ETF choices or Paul’s analysis of individual stocks). I’ll probably play SSO (ETF that’s 2X S&P 500) on smaller dips (if I have the time)

Do NOT chase over extended stocks/ETF’s

Investors - Wait for a bigger drop in MO before going long. Also recommend a long term position in USO that is dipping right now. ( See Positions Section of blog & comments section Friday)

If, we get up over +60 on the MO and  the Dow/major indexes rally – that would be a selling or shorting point.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!


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September 17, 2010

Fireworks Again

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Elizabeth Warren

Elizabeth Warren

Fireworks Again

23 Comments yesterday. WOW. You tied a record. Most on politics. It ended at midnight with Yankee Bob on Fascism. You can scroll down to the bottom HERE to read them all. Some strong opinions, and let’s try to be civil.

I told Jim J I would publish his list of candidates to donate to Monday or Tuesday. You can be sure Tea Party candidate that JS (not me) called a “Whack Job.” will not be on it.

Elizabeth Warren

Bravo Elizabeth Warren has been chosen by Obama to set up the Consumer Protection Agency and start running it. The Right Appointment at the Right Time editorial by Simon Johnson.

Poverty Rate Rises

Poverty is on rise. Republican response to their fellow Americans “Let Them Eat Cake” or repeal all of health care. There are many parts of the health care bill I oppose, but repealing the whole thing is just wrong. More on the poverty rate in the US declining for a decade – The Lost Decade from WSJ

Back in 2008 Investors411 warned that the economic meltdown was “far, far, far, far, far, worse” than what people expected. One forecast you hate to have come true.

Digging In Heals

You may think of him as Darth Vader (Democrats – Larry Summers and Chris Dodd constantly compete for this title) But when he speaks its usually policy. Larry Summers – “Maintaining tax cuts for top wage-earners should take a back seat to other more pressing measures, White House economic advisor Larry Summers said, in a signal the administration could be digging in its heels on the issue. ”  From CNBC – All right Larry – something positive. Darth Vader title goes to Senator Chris Dodd for now.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.21% down
NASDQ +0.08% down
S&P -0.04% flat
Russell 2000 -0.72% -

-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September“The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Term for the DayBaltic Dry Index – From Investopedia

“A shipping and trade index created by the London-based Baltic Exchange that measures changes in the cost to transport raw materials such as metals, grains and fossil fuels by sea. The Baltic Exchange directly contacts shipping brokers to assess price levels for a given route, product to transport and time to delivery (speed)

Changes in the Baltic Dry Index can give investors insight into global supply and demand trends. This change is often considered a leading indicator of future economic growth (if the index is rising) or contraction (index is falling) because the goods shipped are raw, pre-production material, which is typically an area with very low levels of speculation.”

US Markets – It’s a ghost town out there as volume remains pitifully weak.

This is the third Friday of the month when options expire. Almost always this day lacks technical significance unless a major fundamental surprise occurs.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, fell  -0.31% yesterday.  Falling dollar trend for stocks = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell a -3.63% yesterday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. Fourth down day in a row with rate of fall increasing. After 8 week bull run trend changing to bearish, but still= Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell again to +22.38 yesterday. Note while zero is the center of this chart the 50 DMA is at 19.33 That’s a support level. = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

If the baby Bull, pictured earlier this week is going to get on its feet, this would be the time to rise.

However, it’s hard to put significance on an options expiration Friday. Perhaps Monday will be the key.


Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore).

Same basic outlook for traders- Short term trend is bullish for stocks. If we can get @ a 100 point drop in Dow and you can tolerate risk – you could nibble

Investors – Wait for a bigger drop in MO before going long.

Also if, we get up over +60 on the MO and  the Dow/major indexes rally – that would be a selling or shorting point.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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September 16, 2010

The Old Guard

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Christine Odonnell

Fresh Face for the Old Guard Corporations

Jobs/Candidates/Corporate Interests

Three of you in the comments section of the blog are aghast at the nomination of Republican Tea Party’s Christine O’Donnell in Delaware. You can see her lack of  qualifications on Wikipedia. Other sources are a lot harsher.

She is a far right religious person [masturbation = adultery]  a Perky Pretty Palin, & most important she has backing from the major corporations/industry groups that dominate America.

Bottom Line - There are perhaps a half dozen major old guard industry groups that are focused on one thing – profits. They use scaling and create their jobs abroad instead of at home. These giant companies gobble up smaller ones then (think Gordon Geko) then decimate the jobs of the acquired smaller company to make greater profits. Even the smaller companies in an industry group devour the start ups and diminishing their work force is a top priority. That’s the giant jobs eating food chain for America’s old guard globalized corporations.

O’donnell is perfect for Wall Street. perfect for the Koch Brothers (& other wealthy oligarchs) that finance the Tea Party, Perfect for the old guard major corporations. Perfect for religious groups & others manipulated by fear. But devastating for the job starved middle class.

Jobs/ Helping Small Business

Two Republicans broke ranks and voted with Democrats to break Republican Senate filibuster that was against helping small business. House should vote on this today or tomorrow.

“would create a $30 billion fund that the government would invest in independent community banks to encourage lending to small firms.

It would also exclude from taxes all capital gains on sales of small-business stock, and ease tax rules for expending and depreciating equipment. Tax breaks in the bill total $12 billion.” Source ultra right wing CNBC

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.44% flat
NASDQ +0.50% down
S&P +0.35% down
Russell 2000 +0.51% -

-

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Term for the DayMcClellan Index/Oscillator - From Investopedia (don’t worry if you do not understand what they are saying. EMA = Exponential Moving Average an adjusted daily moving average of price) -

“A market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. It is primarily used for short and intermediate term trading.

To calculate subtract a 39 day EMA (of advancing issues – declining issues) from a 19 day EMA (of advancing issues – declining issues).”

Investors411 uses this Oscillator because it is broad based & does NOT include volume. If you look at  the MO chart below, you’ll find a strong correlation between +60 and above showing markets overbought and -60 and below showing markets oversold. These are often the starting points for rallies or declines that last for weeks and sometimes months. Compare with the rises and fall of major US indexes. The MO works differently in different kinds of markets (bear, neutral, bull) so it needs tweaking and the +/- 60 are numbers not written in sand,

US Markets - From financial channel Volume is down 30% relative to last year on major US stock indexes. Volume no longer a decent forecasting tool for major US indexes.

Forex dominates (see yesterday’s term of the day) today’s trading. Bank of Japan yesterday dumped billions into their currency in hopes that the Yen would depreciate.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, rose  +0.43% yesterday.   For stocks trend is still =Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell a  -3.40% yesterday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. Third down day in a row with rate of fall increasing. If this continues BDI bullish trouble Right now longer term chart pattern Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell to +38.99 yesterday. Very unusual NYSE rose =0.25% yet the MO fell a minor 14%. Trend is moving lower and indicator is = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Dollar market and Japan’s intervention for the first time in six years is what’s got traders attention. Japan an exporting country has watched the Yen (their currency) go up in price making their goods cost less. Governments around the world including our Fed (Permanent Open Market Operations) are all trying to manipulate their currencies so their goods cost less and their exporters sell more.  Is this the start of a trade war?  If so, China is way ahead in currency manipulations.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore).

Trend is clearly bullish for stocks. If we can get the MO down to @ +20 (@a 100 point drop in Dow) and you can tolerate risk you could nibble. Also, of course, we get up over +60 on the MO and  a rise in the Dow/major indexes, that would be a selling or shorting point for those that can tolerate the risk. (see past Investors411)

Their are obviously safer entry/exit points, but that’s where the tea leaves tell me to start.

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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