Lots of you think of GW Bush like this but…

George Bush The Hero

Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Treasury Secretary under BUSH Hank Paulson and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke sold Congress on the $700 billion insurance plan to save shadow banks. Phase 2 was carried out under OBAMA & his Treasury Secretary  Geithner

From screamers - Tea Party Patriots on the Right to Rachel Madow on the left the TARP gets bashed. Even Democrats run & hide when the TARP is brought up.

Yes it was a bait and switch by Paulson, yes it kept the shadows in business, And yes some fat cat CEO’s got fatter because of it (lots of blame to retiring Senator  Dem. Chris Dodd on the last point).

The Bottom Line – Simply a second great depression was averted. Lehman collapsed and if the other dozen or so major investment firms had fallen along with AIG, GE, GM (also add any other worldwide companies that had over leveraged positions) it would have started the dominos of panic and we’d be seeing unemployment at way over double what it is today. Imagine a dozen firms all bigger than Lehman’s going belly up and the other mega banks failing throughout the world. Add media hype. Result Great Depression #2

Story on this from Politico’s Ben Smith – TARP A Success None Dare Mention

FYI on TARP – From Wikipedia “as of April 12, 2010, is down to $89 billion, which is 42% less than the taxpayers’ cost of the Savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s.”

Postscript – 33 Hero Democrats in May of 2010 voted to break up those too big to fail shadow banks. 61 Republican & Democrat caved into the shadow financial institutions and their lobbyist.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - ”The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Term for the Day – High Frequency Trades - From Investopedia – “High frequency trading is an automated trading platform used by large investment banks, hedge funds and institutional investors which utilizes powerful computers to transact a large number of orders at extremely high speeds. These high frequency trading platforms allow traders to execute millions of orders and scan multiple markets and exchanges in a matter of seconds, thus giving the institutions that use the platforms a huge advantage in the open market.”

US Markets – Ended up flat in what passes now for moderate/average volume. Much less than in the past because retail investors have been exiting stock and trading is dominated by HFT’s.

Brokerages, Mutual Funds & Platforms that cater to individual or small groups of investors/traders are seeing profits diminish as retail investors continue to leave stocks.

Holding onto gains is usually a bullish sign after a major rally day. But there was a divergence in the normal relationship between the dollar and stocks that have been moving in almost 100% different directions since July. The dollar took another big hit and stocks instead of moving higher were flat. (more below)

Gold like Silver last week broke out to new highs. Mea Culpa – Investors411 talked many times about buying GLD on dips but never did.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, fell ANOTHER HUGE -1.01% yesterday.  Dollar at 81.08 and has a another major support level at just below $80. For stocks =Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell a  -1.21% yesterday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. Two relatively minor down days in a row. Right now longer term chart pattern still = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell to +45.56 yesterday. Back to = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

We may have missed at least a short term selling or shorting opportunity. We had the MO at +61 & the Dow climbed another +60 points in to the the AM. (just short of the +100 criteria) Investor411 has only one small long position in EWS, so I took no action in the 411 account.

The Baby Bull is still alive. But…

There has been a key divergence. The dollar is in meltdown vs. other currencies. From yesterday on the dollar  “one ugly bearish chart” This dollar meltdown should have been good news for stocks. Stocks should have rallied. But they stayed flat & the MO dropped 16 points. Sometimes it takes a day for stocks to react, but, for right now, overbought stocks went nowhere despite good news in a falling dollar.

This could signal at least a short term top.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore).

EEM (the major ETF for emerging markets) is overextended from 50 DMA. So are other breakout countries. It would be natural to see some sort of consolidation.

Along with the Baby Bull the upgrade to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH is not yet firmly in place. We still could fall back to neutral.

Here’s the test – The MO falls to about zero or +20 and stocks rally from that point.

I’d be willing to invest/risk a bit more then. Yes its not -60 on the MO – a better entry point, but emerging markets & a falling dollar are pulling US equities along for the ride. A consolidation after a run is not to be feared. Also time to start looking at YOUR stock list

Long Term Outlook – CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Baby Bull

Smoke & Mirrors

Reality always seems to be managed by others in some kind of smoke and mirror game for their benefit (usually a powerful oligarchy) and not yours.

• Headline this AM on CNBC – Investors Lack Confidence in Regulators to Fix Markets
• Basel 3 (most of you have never heard of this, but it was supposed to be the conference that regulated worldwide banking) They gave banks till 2019 to get their act together. That’s  and unbelievably long 8 years How many financial meltdown are possible before then? Just how bad is the European banking system that it needed 8 years to get solvent?
• Of course big US shadow banks can still hide hundreds of billions (trillion+) in off sheet accounts. Here an account of just how phony the US & European banking systems have become by Karl Denninger

Politically we have groups of radical fear mongerers who collaborate and seek out the worst examples of behavior of Islam and 24/7 broadcast the results with their well financed media domination. This is exactly what Osama Been Forgotten and his crew try to do against the west.

Hate, fear, and unregulate financial systems work as a means to power money and war.

As one of you stated in the comments section we are generating so much hatred (smoke and mirrors) that one terrorist incident could set off a conflagration. (not the exact words)

Casino capitalism and fear mongering Islamaphobia does not instill confidence in the future.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Term for the Day – Forex (FX) - From Investopedia – “The market in which currencies are traded. The forex market is the largest, most liquid market in the world with an average traded value that exceeds $1.9 trillion per day and includes all of the currencies in the world.” The Dollar is the #1 currency in the world.

US Markets – Moved higher in increased but average volume. Average volume right now is much less than the volume in the spring & much much less than the volume that started the 2009 bull run. There was a key breakout in emerging markets and breakdown in the dollar that significantly impact US stocks. (see below)

Part of this rally was due to Basel 3 (see above) as the financial sector shot higher on weak worldwide regulations.

Today is a confirmation day of Monday’s rally.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, fell a HUGE -0.96% yesterday. It also broke down to a closing low below its 4+ week long trading range. For stocks =Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Fell a minor -0.63%yesterday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. It also often makes long slow moves in one direction (see chart for patterns)  Right now longer term chart pattern = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +61.65 yesterday.= Bearish

Reading Tea Leaves

The dollar breakdown is the key factor behind yesterday’s rally. If dollar continues to fall stock will continue to rise. The dollar ETF - UUP (check out one nasty bearish chart for dollar by clicking on previous UUP ticker symbol)

MO has reached overbought territory. But right now the massive Forex (FX)/dollar market is the dog wagging the stock market tail. If the dollar starts to melt down we could see the MO reach the 97 it reached in July or even the 122 it reached at the start of 2009. (last very unlikely)

Still this is a time to think more about selling than buying. Going to stick with our strategy of selling into big rallies  (Dow 100+ points) when the MO is above +60. If the dollar continues to fall. then we will have to adjust our MO guidelines. +80 or +90  could become the selling/shorting point and falling to zero or +20 could be a buying point.

This all depends on the dollar. – UUP is still the what to watch.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore) – This ETF has broken out and gapped higher yesterday. Along with IFN (India)  they have broken out to new highs and are getting overextended or too far above 50 day moving average.

EEM – The emerging market ETF has broke out and gapped higher in increased volume. Again volume very overextended from 50 DMA. Volume is 1/2 of what it was in May & June when everything went down. Just another sign that the dominating traders are the BB/HFT’s.

Comparison to US indexes – 200DMA is still above 50 DMA. Emerging market have broken out and are dragging the US indexes along for the ride.

Long Term Outlook Upgraded

WHY – Several important technical barriers fell & we are rapidly approaching others for US indexes

• The major breakdown through resistance for the dollar in a massive move. US equities move inversely to the dollar.
• Emerging Markets broke out through major resistance. The 50 crossed the 200 DMA two weeks ago and a gap higher through resistance in increased volume is bullish.
• All these factors that should push stocks higher are happening with US equities now being overbought (over +60 on the MO) So there is rsistance to the baby bull market.

This Bull is a baby and it has yet to really start running. Because markets are so overbought right now the baby bull may never get its legs.  So the CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH long term outlook may be changed back.  This means we have to set a bit higher standards for overbought on the MO. (see above)

Long Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Iman Rauf of NYC Islamic Center

Confirmation of 5% Doctrine

Last Friday Investors411 led with Gail Collins’ 5% Doctrine. The Islamophobic fear mongering that was started over the NYC Islamic Culture Center has spread. The Florida minister’s didn’t burn the Koran, But  two other Ministers actually burned Korans on 911 ( includes video) By in large the American media has kept this quiet. Others are attempting to do so.

The Iman, who has said the doors of his Islamic Center will have rooms for other religions to pray and will honor the 60 Moslems & other Americans who died on 9/11, said canceling building plans will have the same kind of negative impact the Koran burning would have had by the Florida pastor throughout the world. General Petraeus is 100% right in his call to protect the troops and NOT to burn Korans.

Bottom Line –  from Steve Clemons – Do Muslim Lives Matter?

Elizabeth Warren for CFPB

Another  editorial by MIT prof Simon Johnson on why Elizabeth Warren would be  great for the position as first head of Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Every time the Dems call/email me asking to contribute money. I reply when Warren gets appointed then call me. See the debate on contributing $ for the November elections in comments section of blog.

Quote For the Week

“The Jews have lived an existence that is much harder than ours. Nothing compares to the Holocaust.” Fidel Castro in criticizing Iran’s so called President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Odds by Intrade of an overt US or Israeli air strike on Iran – Bid 24.0% Ask 24.4% by end of next year

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for September - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Term of the Day – Double Dip Recession - From investopedia “When gross domestic product (GDP) growth slides back to negative after a quarter or two of positive growth. A double-dip recession refers to a recession followed by a short-lived recovery, followed by another recession.” This is perhaps the major worry on Wall Street and Main Street.

Rally with pathetic volume on Friday. Low volume rallies have been the reality for major US indexes for many many moons. BB/HFT’s dominate and the # of retail investors are diminishing. As explained in past Investors411, this forces anyone who wants to invest to look at US stock markets differently than in the past.

Example – Low volume rallies would send technical analysts jumping for the sidelines or out of stocks.  Now, they are a wave to ride until we reach oversold positions (see MO below)

What’s up for this week – “A Dash of Insight” (a pun – but you have to know about the author) on the week ahead by Jeff Miller OK so most of you will skip reading this, but if you want to have an understanding of the different types and health of trees in the investment forrest its well worth the read

High Dividend stocks – Investors411 has recommended High dividend stocks as an outperformed in troubled times because they have two potential streams of income for long term investors – Appreciation in price and potential dividend. Here’s an editorial on 5 potential high dividend stocks

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, rose avery minor +0.01% higher Friday. Dollar in 4+ week long trading range. For stocks = Neutral
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose a very minor +0.23%yesterday.  The BDI does not have the immediate impact that the MO or Dollar does. It also often makes long slow moves in one direction (see chart for patterns)  Right now chart pattern = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +43.43 yesterday. Clearly above zero and within 17 points of +60. So we are nearing overbought levels, but still= Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

We slowly moving toward oversold territory, while the dollar is moving sideways. The trend is bullish,but when we get to overbought (@+60 on the MO) this trend should change.

Right now good news gets a favorable reaction from stocks.  The more overbought we get the less that same kind of good news matters. For right now the Bulls rule.

NB – I’ve been too cautious for long term investors over the past few months when we reached key turning points (+/- 60 on the MO and not invested enough or sold enough. There are some key negative fundamental factors in the Europe & The USA to be concerned about balanced by the continued dynamic growth of emerging markets. (more later this week)

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

Short term traders - From Friday – “There’s some wiggle room before overbought levels are reached, but its mighty narrow.” Looks like potential rally today may run us out of wiggle room.

If stocks to rally today and we reach or come close to +60 on the MO. Any further rally would be time to sell some of your long term positions.

Paul R has an excellent strategy for this he has mentioned in comments section of blog. Especially good for any traders when conditions get oversold – “tighten your stops.”

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Gail Collins, NYT Op-Ed writer of The 5% Doctrine

5% Doctrine

Basically, there is about “5% of our population is and always will be totally crazy.“ Like the Florida preacher who wants to burn the Korans. Collins goes on –  ”According to the National Institute for Mental Health, 26 % of American adults suffer from a diagnosable mental disorder in any given year” (Thanks to Paul R for bring this editorial to my attention.)

Let’s extrapolate two important lessons from this –

1. Fear Mongering Islamaphobia (FYI – the NYC Islamic Center that will have rooms for different religions to come and pray together) has clearly whip up the hysteria of both the 26% and the 5% over the NYC Islamic Center. The Florida pastor is the end result. The fear mongererer’s have already done harm to our own troops and its now been a recruiting tool for fanatics/terrorists.  It could get a whole lot worse. Politicians and ideologues (lots/most in that 26% category throw gasoline on this fire and ratings hungry American media throws more. So when you start to Islamic fear monger it has consequences.
2. Moslem’s have there own 5% & 26% You can argue that this figure is higher/lower. Islamic countries have been subjected to US backed dictators, invasions, their own dictators etc. They generally don’t have a high a standard of living, but lack the technology to spread fear as rapidly as we do. Their, give or take, 5% turns into Hamas, al Quaeda, etc. that do damage to their own religion and the rest of the world.

America’s civil rights hero Martin Luther King was told, its not time, the countries not ready, and how dare you march for freedom. Yet he went on with his Birmingham march. The rest is history.  The same holds true for an Islamic Center in NYC that invites other religions to have rooms in their building to pray.

Many of you oldsters, like me, remember or participated in those marches. Some of you are too young. Jim J in the comments section of the blog reminds us it was Edmund Burke who said “Evil triumphs when good men do nothing.”

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - “The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Each year the financial channel and about every other source that talks about volume mentions “when folks return from Labor Day holiday volume rises”. It was below average again yesterday and dismal relative to its moving average and previous years. The retail investor is a dying animal.  Again BB/HFT’s rule.

US Stocks are like a ghost town  and you’re walking around wondering that behind the saloon door might be a zombie or a pot a gold.

If you want some in depth analysis of current situation check out Fredrick Ruffy from Seeking Alpha

China keeps on growing See BDI below as confirmation of this story. Number of stories out there about how China is dominating Clean Energy manufacturing by cheating.

China grows, China cheats, China manipulates its currency, has been a two decade long trend. The USA is caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place, because so much of our companies growth/profits depends on China.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, rose +0.11% higher yesterday. Dollar in 4 week long trading range. For stocks = Neutral
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +0.44% yesterday. Chart pattern = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +36.38 yesterday. Clearly above zero and within 24 points of +60. So we are nearing overbought levels, but still= Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

Even though a breakout to a new (month long) high failed, momentum still with bulls. We may have started a consolidating pattern.

Suppose the fact that the dollar rose a very small amount and stocks also inched higher instead of falling gives bulls some hope till we reach oversold levels.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

Short term traders – There’s some wiggle room before overbought levels are reached, but its mighty narrow.

But investors & longer term traders should be thinking that we are getting close to overbought territory and it will soon be time to take some profits.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Why All the Fireworks?

• YOUR Stock List was up +7.6% while the S&P was down -1.9% (see below)
• Enter Investors411 in Google and this site comes up #1
• Happy Rosh Hashanah/New Year

A Little Redistribution

Would a little redistribution of the wealth really be so bad? The middle class is hurting and wants to work. We need to acknowledge the crisis brought on by globalization and how its impacting American workers. (Major topic of many past Investors411) Yes, the Shadow Banking meltdown made everything worse, but again its the middle class that’s has also felt the most pain in socializing the over leveraging at shadow financial institutions.

A message to all you wealthy Americans that have profited from the decades of globalization and those who don’t want to part with a dime to help. We’re All One America. Right now that middle class is hurting. We do need to keep middle class tax cuts and perhaps even offer more. But it’s your turn to step up and help.

Today offering a modest proposal for a new top tax bracket (those making over $410,000) by Annie Lowrey and what it would mean. Lowrey doesn’t ask for the tax rate to return to what it was under Ronald Reagan, but what it was for the weathiest 1% under Bill Clinton.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Volume was still below average. The NASDQ was just below average indicating a few traders/investors outside the BB/HFT community nibbled on technology and probably smaller cap stocks.

This lack of volume is just further indication of the power of the BB/HFT traders or the % of the market they control. It’s not your fathers or even YOUR market anymore.  In the past Investors411 have discussed the impact of BB/HFT on trading and will continue to do so.

More Investors411 Guidelines

• The Calendar -on top will take you to any past post of Investors411. Just click on the date and the blog for that day will appear
• Search Box – Just type in a word and if it was tagged at top of blog the last post on that person/subject will come up. Example type in Kahneman then hit search - Bada Bing up will come one of my favorite blogs on the father of behavioral economics and some other outstanding individuals
• HELP, STRATEGY, OVERVIEW & POSITIONS - are all listed at top of blog and offer an array of different information (more later)
• Comments Section - Appears to the right and sparks fly on stocks, economics, trends and politics. Click on the writers Name, Initials and you’ll get the whole post.
• Financial Charts and Blog Roll –  Too the far right are a list of  charts of some indexes & ETF’s that Investors often refers to. They are from Stockcharts.com. A excellent site for gathering free technical data. The Blog Roll contains some frequently used sources.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, fell -0.28% higher yesterday. Dollar in 4 week long trading range. For stocks = Neutral/Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +1.95% yesterday. After slight four day hesitation back in rally mode. Remember this is especially relevant (in this case bullish) to those countries that have an export surplus = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +30.84 yesterday. Clearly above zero and within 29 points of the NOT drawn in the sand line of being oversold.(+60) = Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

The dollar is still the big dog wagging the stock market tail. Flat consolidation pattern holding means the same for stocks. We did have a dash of bullish news for stocks as the dollar fell a bit yesterday, but until consolidation pattern holds – so will stocks.

Considering how strong the run higher was last week in points, we should have another push even higher. Volume is just not as relevent to major indexes because of the BB/HFT domination and the lack of individual investors. Till the MO gets oversold case for bulls strong.

Repeat – UUP the dollar ETF is what to focus on for stock market direction if you are an active trader.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

From Paul “With today’s strong action, “Your Stock List” is up +7.6% since Aug 3. The S&P 500 down -1.9%.” Lots more if you click o the aboved referenced link

You sent in the stock picks that make up YOUR stock List. Give yourself a round of applauds. Paul & I went over the list and did eliminate some candidates.

You can find the complete YOUR Stock List located by clicking on the POSITIONS word at top of blog and scrolling down. Also Paul R has frequent commentary on these and other market news which is especially helpful for active traders. See comments section of blog.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

“Where books are burned in the end people will burn.” – Jewish Poet Heinrich Heine

Book Burning Zealots

Muqtedar Kahn an associate Professor of Social Policy at Univ. of Del. had an excellent editorial in yesterday’s WaPo. The above quote was from his article.

The 9/11 Koran burnings scheduled by a “Christian” pastor in the USA and promoted by American media and growing US Islamaphobia has become international news.

• VFW commander Richard Euwbank has said “it would endanger US troops overseas.”
• Vatican & top NATO officials are condemning it.
• Our State Department has called it un-American, the attorney general “idiotic” as well as the National Council of Churches
• Catholic cardinal in India
• Muslims and Christian religious leaders in Indonesia have banned together
• Of course in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan etc. there has been widespread protest.

Islamaphobia is expanding throughout the USA and this Koran book burning  is like throwing gasoline on a fire. “Evil triumphs when good men do nothing.”

Wealth Inequality

Remember all those “banana republics ” and other countries that never got anywhere economically because all the wealth was held by a rich oligarchy. Slate has come up with some enlightening documentation that demonstrates the growing rise in income inequality in the USA. A visual guide to Income Inequality

More tomorrow

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

From Yesterday – “Its natural for volume to rise after Labor Day weekend.” – Volume fell, yet another further indication of just how many retail investors no longer invest. BB/HFT’s rule.

Investors411 strives to give you many different ways to invest depending on your level of risk.

• YOUR stock list (made up of stocks you send in are listed in the Position Section at the blog and reviewed by Paul R periodically in the comments section. – For higher risk investors latest update yesterday by Paul R
• Investors411 has a long history with ETF’s that benefit from major economic megatrends. These can also be found in positions section of blog. It’s interesting to note that while overall volume is flowing out of ETF’s this year, its growing in foreign ETF’s
• Investors411 also offerer a resource to a more conservative approach to stocks investing that provide a dual stream of income – dividends. High yielding dividend plays or the Dow’s top 10 dividend stocks
• Investors411 lists various “significant” indexes that can be used as a forecast tools on when to buy and sell.
• Check out the comments sections for further ideas from active traders.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, exploded  a +0.95% higher yesterday. This is the single most important factor behind why the BB/HFT’s sold & stocks fell yesterday. = Bearish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +1.46% Friday. A 5 week rally the BDI had flattened out. Now starting to rise again. This acts as a confirmation of the economic health of emerging markets. = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell dramatically  to +15.34 yesterday.= Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

The sharp reversal higher in the dollar is especially noteworthy. The chart shows we broke above the 50 DMA resistance level, but we are still in the trading range developed over the last 4 weeks. Today will act as a confirmation (or not) of yesterday’s big dollar move. Another massive move higher would be very bad for stocks. holding onto yesterday’s rally – mildly bad for US stocks and the bigger the fall the more bullish for stocks.

Again UUP the dollar ETF is what to focus on for stock market direction if you are an active trader.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

Sold 1/2 of EWS for +5% profit.

Since MO is back near zero or its 50 & 200 day Moving averages – It’s neither overbought or oversold. Therefore NOT willing to risk investing. Traders who know what they are doing and are willing to take risks may want to check out latest update yesterday by Paul R of YOUR Stock List

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Demonstration in world’s largest Islamic democracy/country Indonesia where they allow Christian, Buddhist and many other religious faiths to openly pratice. They also have a woman president & a stock market at a new high.

Burn the Koran?

Another  direct follow up to the fear mongering surrounding the Islamic Center in NYC is a pastor in Florida who is going to burn Korans on 9/11 – “It’s International Burn a Koran Day .” General Petraeus from BBC – “This act will endanger US troop.” It will also be  a recruitment mana (gift) from heaven for any Islamic radical that will be broadcast all over the world.

The trend is the growing use of fear mongering on an Islamophobic US public in political seasons. Far right politicians have pushed this issue from Palin to Beck and even some notable Democrats like Harry Reid. Obviously, this trend also benefits those that manufacture weapons

Globalization* & US Education

Why is American education falling or even failing relative to the rest of the world?

Capitalist want to make money. To make that money they needed an increasing educated/smarter workforce to solve problems and deal with technological innovation. Up to, say 1980, that workforce came from US education which major American companies supported.

Now, because of globalization, global American companies no longer have to invest in US education. They simply use use the cheaper educational workforce abroad. “They don’t even have to invest a penny.”

In fact, over the last three decades American capitalists have developed their own think tanks to directly challenge American universities and education system  like American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation.  For more James Kwak at the the Baseline Senerio

* Globalization is one of the key mega trends dominating the world economically. For more click on OVERVIEW at top of blog

Simply put, an Investors411 mantra and Kwak conclusion – “it is the interests of big corporations that determine government policy in the United States.”

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Its natural for volume to rise after Labor Day weekend.

Housing problem has deeply worried many economists. It’s also become a political football two months before the election.  Back in 2008, Investors411′ mantra was & still is the financial meltdown has caused problems “far, far, far, far, far” worse that predicted.

The NASDQ has “gapped” higher 2 of the last 4 trading days at the open. 3 gap higher almost alway means markets are too overbought to continue the move.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, of course, fell  a -0.54% Friday.  Threatens to break down through support levels of three week long consolidation pattern. = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +1.45% Friday. A 5 week rally the BDI had flattened out. Now starting to rise again. = Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +48.06 Friday Momentum obviously with bulls, but we are reaching overbought territory. The MO did spend one day above +9o in late July, but over the last year  the other 4 highs were from + 60 to +80. Therefore running out of room for stocks to move higher = Neutral/Bearish

Reading Tea Leaves

Emerging Markets are on a roll (see POSITIONS Section of blog for corresponding ETF’s) Almost all are relatively outperforming US indexes EWS (Singapore is almost at new yearly high, IFN (India),TUR (Turkey, & EIOD (Indonesia did close at highs. The BDI’s rally is confirmation or a forecast of the positive fundamental growth story of these countries.

US Sock Indexes are being driven higher by a weaker dollar which could break down through its support level today. But we are running out of upside “wiggle room” and almost overbought. There’s only 12 points between current MO at +48 and over bought conditions are +60.

Therefore its time to start thinking about taking profits on long positions in a major rally.  If/when we reach +60 or +80 I will be using the short ETF’s in a rally. (See POSITIONS section at top of blog for more)

Fundamental overview of world Economy.

The obvious sub trend brought about by globalization is the economic deterioration of the US & Europe economically  vs the economic rise of emerging markets and energy rich countries (peak oil mega trend – see Overview section of blog).

Will the emerging markets grow fast enough to pull the USA & Europe out of the Great Recession?

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

We are coming closer to the time to take profits or consider short ETF’s

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Fear

Each day two classrooms in the United States are emptied in the USA because these children are diagnosed with cancer.

Yet the brainwashing American media yesterday, from networks to blogs, focused on a “mentally ill, homeless and violent” man with guns and a bomb holding three hostages in Silver Springs MD.

Our culture has simple become conditions to over hype anything with guns, bombs and a potential terrorism because fear of terrorism sells politically and commercially. Your chances of dying from cancer, diabetes, heart attacks, or going brain dead from alzheimer are thousands of of times greater than a terrorist attack. Sure, we should be vigilant but we should also recognize reality.

Wikipedia reports that only 16% of the approximately 200,000 rapes a year in the USA are reported. How many classrooms are emptied because of the million women who get raped each year in the USA? Yet our American media growing trend is to focus on any potential terrorist related violence rather than rape.

Guess which country is #1 in the world in number of reported rapes so far this year?

——

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Quotes from yesterday - “Churning. “More often than not a big battle like yesterday between bulls & bears means a reversal in direction. In this case that would be a rally….Overall think the BB/HFT’s are setting up for a rally.

We had one big rally in slightly above average, but decreased volume. (sorry for  ”?up” above – couldn’t clearly read the NASDQ volume chart) This is your typical rally in a BB/HFT controlled market.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, of course, fell  a whopping -0.82%.  Because the BB?/HFT are obsessed with the inverse dollar/stock relationship, you’d naturally expect a huge drop in one gets a huge rise in the other = Bullish
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +1.03% yesterday. After a 5 week rally the BDI has flattened out. Now starting to rise. = Neutral/Bullish
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +6.81 Now above Zero, & both 50 & 200DMA’s. Nowhere near +/- 60 so there is lots of wiggle room on each side, but momentum obviously with bulls. Therefore = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Monitor, a trader, in comments section of blog describes the MO forecasting tool best – “An observation – The McCellan Oscillator works!!!!! Plus or minus 60 seems to be a reasonable point where markets turn. If you like to take risks just go long or “buy the dip” when its under minus 40 and wait. Within a few weeks it will be at over 40 and sell”

It actually not all that cut and dry, but the general focus seems to be correct for a Long Term NEUTRAL market.

Mea Culpa - For long term investors there was a point over a week ago when the MO was below -60 & the Dow fell another 100 points which was a buy point.  Personally, as the record shows, I did buy some long positions TYH & SSO, but let the FEAR of loosing $ force me out of those positions with minor gains instead of holding onto those positions. My mistake.

Obviously another typical BB/HFT rally where short positions are forced to buy stocks to cover their positions. This gives added momentum to the rally.

September looks to be one roller coaster ride, now with an upside bias. There will be buying and selling points for both traders and investors. Stay tuned.

The obvious sub trend brought about by globalization is the economic deterioration of the US economically  vs the ecomomic rise of emerging markets and energy rich countries (peak oil mega trend – see Overview section of blog).

Will the emerging markets grow fast enough to pull the USA out of the Great Recession?

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Was getting Saddam worth it?

Blood, Sand & Dollars

Obama last night gave a major address on Iraq as we have decreased the number of US troops (private mercenaries?) to 50,000 supposedly “non combat” troops. One can give Obama some point because he brought the troops out faster than McCain would have.  But lets look at the fractured mess of blood, sand & dollars left in Iraq and its impact on the US & the world.

• The fractured coalition of former US support and condemnation by UN for this war has seriously undermined our worldwide credibility
• How many lies, distortions and fabrications told by the US government to its citizens and the world?
• The strengthened positions of Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, & the Taliban as US occupation acted as a recruiting tool for every terrorist group in the world and kept troops tied to Iraq.
• 75,000 US troops killed or wounded in both combat & non combat rolls. Many more coming home with deep psychological problems.
• Costs on the ground will go over $1 trillion and according to nobel prize winner Joe Stiglets and additional $2 to $4 trillion caring for those returning etc.
• Up to 4 million displaced Iraqi’s. 1.7 million still living abroad. Who really knows over the  projected 100,000 dead Iraqi’s there really are?
• Stalemate in Iraq elections for over six months and majority of officials friendly to Syria or Iran.
• A country in shambles, corruption rampant, and police stations still getting blown up. (level of violence has decreased from two years ago, but still higher than when we first invaded.
• The damage to our constitutional laws and international laws were deeply wounded in this disaster.

The list could go on & on. Nailing a brutal dictator that was an insignificant threat (the Germans’, French, Russians, UN and others realized this) to us was simply not worth the cost.

Israel & Peace

It’s fashionable for some to lay the blame on Israel in the upcoming peace negotiations. They have made mistakes. But how do you make peace with Hamas when on the verge of peace talks they ambush 4 civilians (one pregnant women) and hold a 3000 person joyous rally in celebration of and taking credit for the “heroic “massacre of civilians?

——

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Sure was a whole lot of volume going on for a flat trading day. In Wall Street technical language they call this “Churning.” More often than not a big battle like yesterday between bulls & bears means a reversal in direction. In this case that would be a rally.

YOUR stock list is now contained in the POSITIONS section of the blog. It’s at the bottom.

Another strategy that some of YOU are using is more conservative and it involves buying stocks with high dividends. Here another list of the top 10 dividend stocks of the Dow. The obvious benefit of these stocks is the second revenue stream from dividends for long term investors. Example CVX offers 3.4% or VZ 6.3%.

The same, but longer term buy/ sell strategy can be used. But when conditions are oversold and the Dow is lower and at a certain date in the future sell when conditions are overbought. Use the MO as a guide.

Significant Indexes

• The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose +0.03%. and closed just above its falling 50DMA. For Stocks = Neutral
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Again rose a marginal +o.04%. After a 5 week rally the BDI has flattened out. Now consolidating. = Neutral
• McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose  to -32.52.  We’re on the minus side of Zero, but not yet near -60. Therefore = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Sure looks like the calm before the storm – flat markets & neutral forecasting indexes. One anomaly was a massive -3.33% drop in the price of oil yesterday.

Overall think the BB/HFT’s are setting up for a rally. Flat dollar & MO on the negative side of zero. The “churning”  has also been a fairly reliable indicator.

Nation Building in Iran, Afghanistan etc. is a trend that’s is is doing serious economic harm to the UA.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions - Small position in EWS (Singapore)

USO (commodity-Oil) hit the stop I had placed on it. This position is now closed with no gain or loss. Still plan to buy USO & UCO (ETF that is 2X USO) on dips lower.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!