Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
November 30, 2010

Corporate Profits

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Anne Patterson

Anne Paterson – State Dep’t Whistleblower

Corporate Profits Highest Ever in USA

The Recession and unemployment is for working class Americans. Wealth is raining down like never before on American Companies. Corporate profits are the higher than ever before even after taxes. What do most major corporations do? Watch the media – They cry, they whines, they finance political campaigns  of those that will even further increase their wealth and limit any benefits for America’s working classes.

The recession is for chumps, Corporate America is doing  just fine. American companies in nominal terms are making the highest profits ever.

Globalized companies send their skilled jobs like software engineers to China where it costs 1/5 the money it does to do the same task as in the USA. (LINK - You have to play with this link and convert currencies) From Apple to Wal-Mart jobs growth is flourishing overseas and even though American’s think, by far, jobs and the economy is the most important problem we have.

Our corporate controlled media, and politicians focus is on fear mongering and distracting American’s from their top priority which is jobs growth and the economy.

WikiLeaks

THE major headline throughout the world has been another WikiLeaks information drop of American military/state department data showing media fabrication vs reality. –  In the following Patterson illuminates that the Bush/Obama foreign war policy (example Pakistan) is like the Titanic heading toward an iceberg.

She –  pleads that Washington’s whole policy is counterproductive: it “risks destabilising the Pakistani state, alienating both the civilian government and the military leadership, and provoking a broader governance crisis without finally achieving the goal”

The WikiLeaks data dumps will probably prove more damaging than the Abu Ghraib photos did in exposing the reality  on the ground.

Will WikiLeaks last? – Its one thing to go after the puppet American government, but when you go a some of those who pull the strings – Shadow Banks. then you can get in real trouble – The next data dump is on a major US Bank.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.36% up
NASDQ -0.37% up
S&P -0.14% up
Russell 2000 -0.11% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

World Markets -

The Bulls

  • American corporate profits are the highest ever (see above)
  • The Fed has announced $600 billion will be dumped into US economy.
  • The  POMO Fed program dumped $9 billion yesterday afternoon and stocks rallied.
  • India GDP a robust surprise at +8.3%

The Bears

  • The Korea Situation could explode
  • Smaller European countries are getting roasted in the crisis that began with the 2008 meltdown.
  • Now a major country Spain is now seen as the #1 problem.
  • Bad news in housing keeps growing

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose +0.57% yesterday The dollar has risen 5 out of last 6 days. The weakness in Europe is the major factor behind the dollar rally.  Surprisingly the  rally is not negatively impacting stocks in a big way. But still = Bearish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell -1.15% yesterday. We say a one day really evaporate  and the slide continues.= Neutral/Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell to -35.19 Obviously closer to Over sold than Over bought but sill = Neutral

Reading The Tea Leaves -

Technically we challenged support levels again yesterday (1173 on benchmark S&P 500 – closed at 1188) That’s the line in the sand. 1173 is a strong support level and we are approaching it again with the Bears being weak (MO at -35)

The dollar is soaring which should drive stocks lower. Its NOT happening???? WHY – Fundamentally the only plausible answer is the Fed’s printing and dumping of money will go faster the more bad news there is.

Right now holding 1173 is @ 50/50. But even if the 1173 falls. The emerging market side of the globalization mega trend (see India above) is still carrying the world economically.

Three stocks/ETF to watch to help forecast market direction.

  • BAC – Bounced off its low yesterday. If this shadow bank breaks low watch out.
  • AAPL – #1 Globalization play. Hot technology that makes a huge chunk of its product in China. Rallied recently
  • EWY – South Korea


Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions.

  • EEM – (Emerging Markets ETF) -
  • UWM – (2x small cap stocks ETF)

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” -

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
November 23, 2010

Bada Bing

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

Bada Bing

YOUR New Stock list gains almost +3% on the first day vs. a -0.16% loss for the S&P 500

Sorry abbreviated Investors411 today

Investors411 is gong on a Turkey time break to visit grandchildren and should be back next Tuesday. Meanwhile check out the POSITIONS section of the blog (scroll down) that has 3 recommended portfolios.

The YOUR Stock List is the most aggressive portfolio in the POSITIONS section and today’s results are NOT typical.

However the results of the last two YOUR Stock Lists are somewhat more realistic. Remember we could end up loosing especially if the S&P 500 turns to toast.

  • Our first stock list went up @ +24% from 2/11 to 4/20 vs @ 11% for the S&P.
  • Below is our second list that has gone up @ +26% from 8/4 to 11/5  vs.  @9% for S&P

US Stocks/Positions

Sorry limited time this AM – There’s a lot of “Lions Tigers & Bears Oh MY” (Wizard of Oz) In this case its bad news and scandals. Shadow banks like BAC & GS lost 3+% yesterday. North & South Korea exchanged fire, Ireland who adopted US style casino or “free market” capitalism are all for sale & START treaty in trouble.

Tightening stops on ETF’s. - The same advise given over the last week still holds true for the rest of this week.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening comments on the market in the comment section of the blog.

Barr

PS – Yes Popeye I chuckled – See comments section of blog


AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
November 22, 2010

YOUR Stock List.

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

Welcome to the Resistance - Investors411

A blog that promotes transparency in democracy & capitalism, and beating the results of the S&P 500

YOUR Stock List #3 has just been Published(see below)

istockphoto_4652283-blue-happy-crowd.jpg

Istockphoto of a happy crowd – Hope you like the New Stock List.

What American’s Want

A previously mentioned CBS poll on Nov 11 clearly showed Americans wanted their elected leaders to focus on jobs & the economy. It wasn’t even close.

  1. 56% Jobs & economy
  2. 14% health care
  3. 4% the deficit
  4. other priorities got less votes.

What does America’s Media focus on? Pat downs at airports & TV show Dancing with The Stars is rigged because Sarah Palin’s daughter is on it.

What does our Congress focus on? Perhaps their focus is important, but what about the #1 Priority – Jobs & the Economy, that is 4 times greater than any other priority?

  • Republican’s – Keeping tax cuts for the rich
  • Democrats – Don’t Ask Don’t Tell legislation

Aside – Watching the financial channel CNBC this AM. The chosen expert commentator is Frederick Mishkin. He’s the former Fed Governor who in the middle of the 2008 financial meltdown quit his post to write a book. The TV is intentionally on mute.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.20% down
NASDQ +0.15% down
S&P +0.25% down
Russell 2000 +0.49% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Friday’s move sideways acts as confirmation of Thursday’s big move higher. Short term momentum is with the bulls.

Fundamentally – in the AM on Friday markets absorbed the news about China’s rise in interest rates (to keep growth from growing out of control – we would love to have this problem) The Dow fell @ 50 points on the news and spent the rest of the day recovering.  If the bears ruled then this news would have driven stocks much lower.

Investors411′s mantra has been – High Frequency Traders are dominating the market. Under what used to be normal, the light volume rally of the last three days would have been a sign that it the bears would be back in control today. The rally simply did not have enough bulls to sustain the momentum. However the HFT’s that make up 50 to 80% (probably closer to 80+% yesterday because it was a options expiration Friday that creates the market distortions they use as a basis for trading) dominate.

Therefore, since its Thanksgiving week which has traditionally light trading the HFT’s should dominate even more. = bullish

CAUTIONThis view is contrary to the majority of analysts that I skim each morning before writing Investors411. They see the weak volume behind the three day rally and believe the 3 day bull run will collapse.

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell -0.14% After almost a 2 week rally the 3 day trend starting to move down. For stocks = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  -0.42% yesterday. Major support recently broken, but rate of decline keeps decreasing = Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell to -20.18Neutral

Reading The Tea Leaves -

Our forecasting index have moved from bearish to neutral giving a slight edge in short term momentum to the bulls.

Bottom Line - There’s a decent shot that we can hold onto gains and not fall back below last weeks low. There’s a slightly greater chance we will visit or come close to  the 1130 S&P support level (@6% lower)


Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

  • EEM – (Emerging Markets ETF)
  • UWM – (2x small cap stocks ETF) Bought Friday at 35.78. (5% trailing stop)

Investors & Traders -

Stock List #3 is Published

Both Paul & I spent a lot of time this week going over between 40 & 50 possibilities that YOU sent in or were on the old stock list.  We added a few of our best picks too. There are 15 stocks on the list. You can view the New Stock List by going to the POSITION section of the blog and scrolling down.

  • Our first YOUR Stock List went up @ +24% from 2/11 to 4/20 vs @ 11% for the S&P.
  • Our second YOUR Stock List went up @ +26% from 8/4 to 11/5  vs.  @9% for S&P

One significant reason we’ve been successful in outperforming the S&P 500 is YOUR participation. Some excellent choices were eliminated or narrowly avoided making the list. Reasons for this ranged from having diversity to another stock in the same sector was just a bit better.

Look for Paul Rs always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” -

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
November 19, 2010

Overdrive Goes Over Top

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Welcome to the Resistance - Investors411

A blog that promotes transparency in democracy & capitalism, and beating the results of the S&P 500

Overdrive Interactive Wins

Overdrive won TWO awards last night at the Massachusetts. Innovation & Technology Exchange. The People’s Choice Award that lots of you voted on. Thanks!

Many members of the company get this blog and they are the ones who provide the tech support to keep Investors411 blog alive.   This year’s award might be posted here by the time Investors411 is published. Overdrive is a smaller company (50+) going up against giant competitors.

Both my wife and I deeply appreciate your vote, support, or work you do for our son’s company.

California Wakes Up

Congratulations to the state of California. A major win for Democracy. Instead of having a committee of politicians drawing up politically gerrymandered  districts the state will have ordinary citizens do it.

Why Obama’s Message is Blocked

Tom Friedman has an excellent editorial on what’s wrong with American media -Too Good To Check

Fox news started an unsubstantiated false rumor that Obama’s trip to India would cost us taxpayer’s $200 million a day and he was to be accompanied by 34 naval ships. This story was spread by members of congress, networks, and every right wing outlet. One Journalist alone, Anderson Cooper, checked out the facts.

A few outlets admitted their mistake but that was at least 1/100 of the time they spent bashing Obama. We even got chain emails bashing Obama on this.

This is probably why more people believe in the lie that the India, Indonesia & G20 trip cost the American tax payers billions than know Obama cut your taxes in the Stimulus bill.

Democracy dies when we vote on misinformed lies.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.57% up
NASDQ +1.55% up
S&P +1.54% up
Russell 2000 +1.85% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Yesterday Investors411 used the Wall Street term Dead Cat Bounce with a “?” It sure looks like the cats were wearing helmets yesterday. Question is – Can they get through today?

funny-cat

Stocks rallied in the first hour and held onto their gains all day = Bullish

Big news of yesterday is the GM IPO= +3.61% Historically after the first few days IPO’s fall. Then they establish a base and move with the bulls or bears.

Major story of day will hurt stocks. China raising interest rates again to keep economy from growing too fast. The rate hike was expected (big part of reason stocks moved late last and early this week), but the amount - 50 basis points and the timing today are probably not expected by investors = BEARISH

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar reverse direction and fell significantly yesterday. Fell back to what was its resistance and is now called a support level. For stocks = Neutral/Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  another  -1.10% yesterday. Major support recently broken, but rate of decline keeps decreasing = Bearish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell dramatically out of oversold territory to -30.60 = Neutral
  • 10 Year Treasury Bond (TNX) [Bonds compete with stocks for Investors. Rising TNX also signals inflation. Rising yields bad for stocks] Fell throughout the day but moved =1.33% higher For stocks = Neutral/Bearish

Reading The Tea Leaves -

The Forecasting indexes have changed to mostly Neutral & its the confirmation day after  big rally. China news is going to hurt.

From yesterday in brownThree paths in descending order of preference.

  • Yes the bottom -TJX (Target) had a great earnings report and outlook. Oversold markets & 50DMA support levels hold. GM IPO energizes markets
  • We’re in for an acceptable 5 to 10% consolidation after a nine week bull run with a S&P support level of 1130. (SPX now at 1179)
  • A double dip recession is out there and Investors will soon realize the horror as foreclosures rise, Europe falls apart

The problem here is – if you combine choices the more bearish choices #s 2 & 3, are larger than #1.

The GM deal with a potential strong Christmas season and QE2′s print & dump could swing an oversold market. – It did. Today is a confirmation day for yesterday’s big rally but the China news is going to hurt.

  • Stocks remain flat or go higher = confirmation & good
  • Stocks loose up to 1/2 their previous days gains = fair
  • Stocks loose more than 1/2 the gain = bad
  • Stocks loose all gains or more = duck and cover

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

  • EEM – (Emerging Markets ETF)

Short term Traders. – See no clear advantage to a trade today, although momentum is with the bulls.

Investors. [From yesterday in brown] The MO goes below -60 buying becomes a much better option. Twice in the last 3 years the MO has reached -130. So you could loose out especially if there is a double dip recession. So I started small and nibbled on a little EEM (emerging market ETF) A  position at 45.28 Willing to accept a 7 or 8% loss on this. If we keep going lower I’m going to add some more EEM and country specific ETF’s on dips. (See POSITIONS Section of blog.)

Investors411 main strategy is to “buy the dip” in a positively trending market. When panic is in the street we buy.

I think the chances of a double dip recession are remote, but a flatline US economy coupled with (right now over heated) growing emerging markets is more possible.

Long Term Outlook has been changed back to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH from NEUTRAL. It will remain there unless the major US indexes fall back below their 50 day moving averages of pice (see charts on top right of blog) CAUTION – We are on the cusp of change so Long Term Outlook might flip flop for a while.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” -

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
November 18, 2010

The Good News Message

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Investors & Traders- One way to quickly skim the stock section of Investors411 to see what’s happening is to count the number of Bearish, Neutral & Bullish signals. These are short term trend indicators. If all capitals are used BEARISH or BULLISH put far more emphasis on that forecasting tool. Reading The Tea Leaves will give a daily overview. The Long Term Outlook at the bottom is a forecast of where we will be in 3 to 6 months.

Obama Poll

The Good News Message

Two days ago it was the bad news, today its the good news. Overall you have to wonder Why can’t Obama get the good news out?

  • Today’s GM IPO (see below)happens and 2 weeks ago it had the best in the auto industry quarterly report. is certainly evidence that the loan by the taxpayers worked. Yes bondholders got a bigger haircut than others involved, but a rebound (think sales in China like other car companies) in such a short time is outstanding.
  • Remember we did not fall off an economic a cliff When Obama took office and even the CBO worried about the second Great Depression.
  • TARPTwo years later, the big Wall Street banks have fully repaid the government with interest, and TARP, in the end, could generate a profit”  Problems exist, but big progress has been made.
  • Nobody knows – The number of illegal immigrants declined last year by 800,000 (11/15 Time mag. pg.29) last year under Obama
  • The $780 billion dollar stimulus plan contained a $288 billion tax cut for working Americans. Who knew? In Sept a poll showed 8% of Americans knew there was a tax cut. (see 10/28 blog post)
  • Obama did get some restraints placed on Wall Street – who even knows what they are?
  • Heath care reform contains many positives like closing the donut hole in medicare for seniors, additional coverage for young adults at home and much more. Why have the positives not been articulated. Who even knows what they are?
  • Health care reform according to the non partisan CBO will save 10′s of billions over a decade & a trillion over 2 decades according to the non partisan CBO (see 10/28 blog) Yet Dems ran away from this legislation.
  • Obama entered with a jobless rate per month near -750,000 and this month it increased to +150,000
  • Obama,Dems, and a handful of Republicans passes a A $17.5  billion small business jobs bill on 3/18 and $42 billion Small Business Jobs Act bill on 9/27.
  • The stock market Benchmark S&P 500) is up from a low of 666 to 1179. Amazing +77% gain off the low – yet Investors seem to hate Obama.

So you tell me why can’t the message get out?

A special thanks to one of my daughters for help with the above.

Do Dead Cat’s Bounce?

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.14% down
NASDQ +0.25% down
S&P +0.25% down
Russell 2000 +o.34% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Today, investors411, is using a real stock market term  Dead Cat Bounce with a ? instead of Neutral

Major US markets being oversold and confronting a major support level when nowhere in light, below average volume.= Dead Cat Bounce?

The CRB (commodities)  After a major fall 4 of the last 5 days commodity prices were confronted with a support level (50DMA) and stopped falling yesterday = Dead Cat Bounce?

Big news of the day is the GM IPO. It looks good The GM rebound is a real positive (yea bond holders got screwed)This might suck up some of the volume for stocks, but a successful IMP from GM would be = Bullish

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar took a breather yesterday after a sharp run higher and fell -0.16% yesterday. = Dead Cat Bounce?
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  another  -1.40% yesterday. Major support recently broken, but rate of decline is decreasing = Bearish/Dead Cat Bounce?
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] rose somewhat to -67.71 but is still clearly in oversold territory  = Bullish
  • 10 Year Treasury Bond (TNX) [Bonds compete with stocks for Investors. Rising TNX also signals inflation. Rising yields bad for stocks]After breakout two days ago fell -2.20% back and leveled off yesterday = Dead Cat Bounce?

Reading The Tea Leaves -

Do dead Cats Bounce – NO. You can tell I’m a dog person. The chart above shows what a dead cat is – a short small rally in the middle of a longer meltdown, Oversold markets, confronted by major support levels have flattened or rose a bit.  The question is – is this the bottom or the start of a small dead cat bounce?

Three paths in descending order of preference.

  • Yes the bottom -TJX (Target) had a great earnings report and outlook. Oversold markets & 50DMA support levels hold. GM IPO energizes markets
  • We’re in for an acceptable 5 to 10% consolidation after a nine week bull run with a S&P support level of 1130. (SPX now at 1179)
  • A double dip recession is out there and Investors will soon realize the horror as foreclosures rise, Europe falls apart

The problem here is – if you combine choices the more bearish choices #s 2 & 3, are larger than #1.

The GM deal with a potential strong Christmas season and QE2′s print & dump could swing an oversold market.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

  • EEM –  position bought at 45.23 yesterday.

Traders. Yesterday we had a better potential for a short term trade. But the same senerio of an oversold buy the dip exists.

Investors. The MO goes below -60 buying becomes an option. Twice in the last 3 years the MO has reached -130. So you could loose out especially if there is a double dip recession. So I started small and nibbled on a little EEM (emerging market ETF) A  position at 45.28 Willing to accept a 7 or 8% loss on this. If we keep going lower I’m going to add some more EEM and country specific ETF’s on dips. (See POSITIONS Section of blog.

I think the chances of a double dip recession are remote, but a flatline US economy coupled with (right now over heated) growing emerging markets is more possible.

I hope the change to from CAUTIOUSLY BULISH to NEUTRAL was premature and this is NOT a dead cat bounce.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” -

Paul’s having computer issues and has been off line for a while

Longer Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
November 17, 2010

Just Stocks

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow 1.59% up
NASDQ -1.75% up
S&P -1.62% up
Russell 2000 -2.03% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

One way to quickly skim what’s happening is to count the Bearish, Neutral & Bullish signals in Investors411. These are short term trend indicators. If all capitals are used BEARISH or BULLISH put far more emphasis on that forecasting tool. Reading The Tea Leaves will give a daily overview.

US Stock Markets -

Major meltdown in increased above average volume. Not OMG volume but a bit above average. = Bearish

Interday Markets fell in the AM and stayed flat through out the PM = Could be forming a base or support line = weak Bullish

All major US indexes almost directly above a significant support level – Their 50 day moving averages = Bullish

The CRB is the basic index for all commodity futures. The USO (oil XTF – since it is an ETF it shows volume) is only one commodity. Both took huge hits yesterday. As mentioned on Monday a minor (relative to housing/shadow bank 2008 meltdown) bubble looks to  be bursting. = BEARISH

Another negative is the focus of investors Ireland looks like it faces same problem as Greece. = Bearish

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose another  significant amount  +0.88% yesterday. It took out another resistance level like a knife through butter For stocks = BEARISH
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  another  -1.86% yesterday. Major support recently broken and BDI keeps falling at 2+% each day = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell dramatically and are in oversold territory  = Bullish
  • 10 Year Treasury Bond (TNX) [Bonds compete with stocks for Investors. Rising TNX also signals inflation. Rising yields bad for stocks] After breakout two days ago fell -2.20% back to its support level = Neutral/Bearish

Reading The Tea Leaves -

There are still too many bearish signals out there to to balance the fact that we are approaching the 50 day moving/support level average for the major US stock indexes. The MO is clearly in oversold territory at -86.89 but has fallen beyond -130 ONLY twice in the last three years

There’s a shot because of the low MO and support levels for the major indexes is in front of us that bulls could make a stand. The problem is that just about everyone else who I skim for analysis is full of doom and gloom.  In fact, more are starting to talk about a double dip recession.

Bears are approaching the 50 day moving average with HUGE momentum so the Long Term Outlook was changed to NEUTRAL

The Wild Card is the High Frequency Traders that dominate the stock market (50 to 80% of trades) I get the feeling they are “pumping and dumping” HFT and other entities push or pump panic traders/investors in one direction then when it reaches a fever pitch go/dump in the other.

So being totally out of the markets, I think there a chance to nibble on another big dip. At a -120 MO I’d take a bite.

Additional reasoning -The rising dollar is playing a major role in falling stocks. The USD is trading above its top Bollinger Band. Translation its gone up too far too fast. So if the tracking ETF for the dollar the UUP goes up  and stock dip this AM, I’ll BUY

This trade will evaporate if we go sideways for a few days. But at least a snap back counter trend rally is very possible right now.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)..

Investors411 has No long positions at this time. Even our YOUR Stock List is under construction.

Traders. Potential for a buy the dip trade exists today.(see above) Would use riskier TYH (3X techs) & EDC (3X Emerging Markets) rather than less leveraged ROM (2x techs) & UWM (2X small caps) to start. Reasoning – I’ll take a quick 3 to 5% profit on 1/2 and let the rest ride. The more leverage the quicker you get to the profit/stop loss

Investors. -87 on the MO is mighty tempting. I do think there is more downside to come. If you can take the high risk  EEM or one of the various other specific emerging market countries is what I’d choose. You’d love another  Dow down 100+ points before nibbling.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term OutlookNEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
November 16, 2010

What Americans Want

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Health Care Debt

What Amerian’s Want

A Nov 11th CBS poll on What Americans think is the biggest problem facing the country:

  • 56% Jobs & the Economy
  • 14% Health care
  • Next -Other problems
  • 4% the deficit.

Frankly, The American Public got it right. If we don’t fix JOBS and the ECONOMY the rest is NOT going to matter. The Tea Patry’s feeding frenzy over the deficit is almost totally irrelevant now.

What will Obama do? History;

  • Caved into generals/military industrial complex over endless wars – Iraq, Afghanistan, War on Terror and probable future wars Iran Pakistan etc.
  • Caved in to Insurance companies on Health Care. FYI – Repealing Heath Care law would mean Insurance companies would loose cash cow of @30+ more Americans covered. Hard to see a total repeal.
  • Caved into shadow banks over stringent reforms that helped cause global recession.

Think its a safe bet here that Obama will cave in or nicer word compromise (then cave in) to some major industrial sector or their media outlets (Fox news etc) decide.    What should Obama, who has spent the last 10 days outside the country, do ?

  • Focus on Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.
  • Reincarnate Teddy Roosevelt as listen to him
  • Learn to communicate your successes.

Tomorrow – What Obama/Democrats has done and failed to communicate.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.08% down
NASDQ -0.17% down
S&P -0.12% down
Russell 2000 +0.09% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Three significant factors on yesterday’s stocks.

  • Very light volume
  • Horrible inter day action where a rally collapsed into the close
  • We held onto last weeks  & Friday’s down stock indexes.

All this is bearish but tempered by light volume.

USO – The ETF we are using to monitor commodities did the same and ended up a small +0.08% yesterday. After falling a huge -3.62% Friday the USO held onto those losses = Bearish

New factor – The Bond Sharks are out. Yields on bonds are rising. (Click on Treasury Bonds under Financial Charts on far right of blog) Bonds compete with stocks for investors so this is bearish news for stocks.

Significant Indexes – NB The 10 year Treasury Bond is back as a factor

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose a significant  +0.56% yesterday. Broke one resistance level yesterday and is at $78.52 A second major resistance level is the falling 50 DMA at $78.62. For stocks = Bearish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  another  -2.25% yesterday. Major support recently broken and BDI keeps falling at 2+% each day = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] was flat at -54.43 yesterday.  = Oversold/Neutral
  • 10 Year Treasury Bond (TNX) [Bonds compete with stocks for Investors. Rising TNX also signals inflation. Rising yields bad for stocks] Rose a massive 5.2% yesterday and broke a resistance level. For stocks = Bearish

Reading The Tea Leaves8 Charging Bears

There are about 8 bearish signals flashing in today’s Investors411 vs. 2 Bullish signals – Light volume show not much panic over 8 charging bears and the MO is almost oversold.

If 8 bears were charging me I’d run and hide behind a support level – In this case the 50 Day Moving Averages for the major stock indexes. Who knows what’s in the minds of the High Frequency Traders. Perhaps faith in QE2 is built into a lot of their algorithms. However, they did NOT even attempt to rescue stocks at the end of the day. Bear # 9

Most significant forecasting ETF to watch

  • The dollar (UUP the tracking ETF) - Most likely the significant resistance level will hold,
  • Overbought commodities - (USO the tracking stock)

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore) Bought for 11.99 on 8/17 Sold yesterday at 14.01 for +17% gain.
  • TYH (3x tech stocks) . Sold the last 1/2 TYH at 40.44 yesterday, Bought 11/11 for 4o.63 Loss 0/1% Total gain trade (including first 1/2 = a minor +2%.

Threw in the towel on long positions after markets started to deteriorate (see above) yesterday.

Investors411 has No long positions at this time. Even our YOUR Stock List is under construction.

Traders. There was no big dip (Dow down 100+ points) to buy on yesterday. I’d be more cautious about going long today. (see 8 charging bears above) Personally I’d use positions like ROM (2x techs) & UWM (2X small caps) to start. TYH (3X techs) l& EDC (3X Emerging Markets) seem too risky right now.

Investors – Lets wait for the MO to close below -60 before even considering buying. Right now it looks like bears are going to run right through -60 and @-130 was the May low for the MO.

—-

  • Your First Stock List made @ +24% from 2/11 to 5/20 vs @ +11% for the S&P 500
  • Your Second Stock List made @ +26% from 8/4 to 11/5 vs @ +9% for the S&P 500

Paul & I will be going over the list and coming out with YOUR Stock List #3 by next Monday. We have about 30+ stocks to choose from and the eventual list will be from @ 12 to 15 stocks like the last lists.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
November 15, 2010

Voting Early and Often

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

VOTE

Without Overdrive Interactive this web site would NOT exist or remain free. An intern there designed Investors411. That means

  • No lists of ETF’s that out preform the S&P 500 for the last 5 years
  • No YOUR Stock Lists that make 24% & 26% in 3 or less months
  • No unique politic/economic commentary that angers or satisfies.
  • No comments section loaded with investment ideas & controversy
  • No POSITIONS section explaining investment choices

Overdrive Interactive is up for a major award in Digital Media. A small company up against some of the biggest in the industry for a prestigious award.

You Can Vote Early and Often!

You can vote each day though Wednesday. Voting takes only a few seconds. Click on the Overdrive Interactive circle then hit VOTE  - Link Below

http://www.boston.com/business/technology/product/MITXawardvote2010?pg=9

My son Harry does run the company. Like all of you, I’m proud of all my kids. But this one needs help right now. You’d also make his old man happy. Thanks!

Stuxnet

Stuxnet is one nasty computer worm that was fist noticed in June 2010. It came to worldwide attention because it attacked Iranian Nuclear facilities through Microsoft/Siemans products. Investors411 has brought this up once before. My bet is Israel created it. Perhaps the USA.

Richard Clarke, a former Counter Terrorist advisor to a President talks about some of the threat from future Cyber War

  • Remember the Israeli’s taking out a Syrian Nuclear Reactor without a scratch. Well,Syria went dark because of a virus.
  • The above link also has a summary of how and why countries are preparing for Cyber War.
  • You all know how nasty a compute virus can be. Well it could get a whole lot worse (Thanks to Robert H for info on this)


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.80% down
NASDQ -1.46% down
S&P -1.18% down
Russell 2000 -1.68% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

From Friday’s blog - “When you add CSCO to the dollar’s rise & the BDI’s fall its three strikes.”

Stocks took a hit in what now passes for average volume – weak volume. The weaker the volume the more of the market BB/HFT’s control.

The most significant point for trading this week is that after a a big run higher a commodity bubble may be bursting


Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] For the 4th day in a row the dollar rose a significant amount. -0.17% yesterday.  Dollar directly blow strong resistance level= Bearish/Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  a massive -2.24% yesterday. BDI consolidated after bull run that began in June. Major support recently broken = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell  to -54.54 yesterday.  = Oversold/Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

Commodities are directly related to the BDI. The BDI breaking support means commodities (raw materials that emerging markets need) are not getting shipped. This is a warning shot – After a big run higher this overbought significant element of the world’s economy looks like it has to consolidate.

This makes USO (ETF for oil – a major commodity) what to watch today. It fell a huge -3.62% Friday.

Perhaps some balance to this is the fact that the dollar is up against  strong resistance. Both a short term high and a falling 50 day Moving Average.

The MO is almost oversold (-55 is near -60) We’ve waited a long time for the MO to get this low and an opportunity to buy the dip.

However we now have two new factors to watch.

  • The dollar (UUP the tracking ETF)Most likely the significant resistance level will hold,
  • Overbought commodities – (USO the tracking stock) – Unfortunately best read of tea leaves is that this sector will fall in short term. An overbought correction in a bull run. But still a short term downside move. this week.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore) This ETF is very vulnerable to a falling BDI and commodities. Put in 2% trailing stop.
  • EEM (emerging Markets) Was Stopped out of EEM for 0% gain.
  • DGP (2x gold) Stopped out of DGP at 40.70 for @ a +7% gain
  • TYH (3x tech stocks) . Stop on the rest at 39.25. If stop is hit the total gain/loss will be zero.

Traders and Investors who can take high risk- There are a lot of moving parts to watch (UUP & USO) but a buy the dip opportunity exists. The bigger the dip (Dow -100) the better. I like TYH (3X techs) ROM (2x techs) & UWM (2X small caps) Obviously the less leveraged means less risk and less profit if it goes higher.

Investors - Lets wait for the MO to close below 60. Maybe I’m waiting too long to buy the dip, but caution seems appropriate.

—-

  • Your Fist Stock List made @ +24% from 2/11 to 5/20 vs @ +11% for the S&P 500
  • Your Second Stock List made @ +26% from 8/4 to 11/5 vs @ +9% for the S&P 500

Deadline for suggested stocks for the new “YOUR Stock List” is today at 6:00PM EST

Paul & I will be going over the list and coming out with YOUR Stock List #3 by next Monday

Look for Paul R‘s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
November 12, 2010

Snidely Whiplash

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Gang of 21

Snidely Whiplash – Shadow Banker

Imagine if you will, a gang of 21 Snidely Whiplashes [AKA Shadow Bankers.] The problem is you don’t have to imagine – THEY EXIST

Here’s the List of the Fed’s 21 Primary Dealers. Just what powers do they have besides borrowing money for nothing and what are they now up to?

  • You can sell bonds to them and get freshly minted greenbacks in return.
  • Our government has blessed them with opaque accounting rules so who knows what they do with the money.
  • The bulk of their money certainly is NOT going into mortgages or helping small business grow -
  • Lots of Dudley Doright’s (Snidely is Dudley’s arch enemy) suspect that that money is going into Black Box/High Frequency Trades that keep pushing stocks higher. They invest on algorithms and market distortions NOT valuation.
  • Lots of Dorights suspect the money is going into more complex massive derivative market – A still totally UNREGULATED Market
  • Who believes shadow banking culture has changed?
  • Did the Sindlely’s buy off enough in congress to crush banking reform? Will they further weaken reforms in place?

Life is pretty good if your name is Snidely “Big Taxpayer Bonus” Whiplash right now.

Dudley Doright (below)

CiscoWhy their earning Matter to YOU

Teach giant CSCO earnings report shattered the stock yesterday (-16.21%) Its report showed slower than expected growth in Europe, US and especially government spending.

In the US the Obama stimulus/tax cuts, and other world wide stimulus programs have run their course. The US stimulus along with the The Fed’s “print and dump” of $$$$ has been primarily what’s holding up GDP in the USA and improving the jobless picture.

The training wheels have come off the economic trike and yesterday and Cisco is saying things don’t look good. Add to this

  • Palin and other Tea Kettlers (Tom Friedman term) have come out against Bernanke and the print and dump of Fed cash.
  • Lots more Republican governors after election who are going to further cut state spending.
  • No new stimulus seems likely in Congress with Republican takeover of the House.
  • Many European governments are cutting government spending also.

Emerging markets are doing well, but the US & Europe are running along an economic cliff with blindfolds on. Long term we do need to make some serious decisions about our economic future. See NYT editorial – Some Fiscal Reality – that Popeye suggest in comments section of blog.

Fiscal reality while running along an economic cliff.  Yikes.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.65% up
NASDQ -0.90% up
S&P -0.42% up
Russell 2000 -0.45% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Big volume behind yesterday’s selling with CSCO leading the way down -16.21%. Lots of that volume was the massive 500+ million CSCO shares traded.

Stocks keep absorbing body blows of bad news. See below. We reached a critical resistance level for the dollar. If the dollar breaks out of its range to the upside it should be one uppercut to the chin that could send stocks tumbling to the mat.

Under what used to be a normal market where Investors & a stocks value ruled bears would already be in charge. Mantra - Black Box/High Frequency traders dominate 50 to 80% of this market and they are buying the dips.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] For the 4th day in a row the dollar rose a significant amount. +0.75% yesterday. Dollar broke its support level last week, but yesterday it broke back up through that resistance level. The trend for stocks = BEARISH/Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  a massive -3.59% yesterday. BDI now consolidating after bull run that began in June. The BDI has been overshadowed by the dollar moves. Sitting directly above major support. Big breakdown though its support level = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell  to -20.02 yesterday.  = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves.

Three major Bearish sign emerged yesterday.

  • The BDI broke down through its support in a BIG way -3.59% Probable cause – No real unity apparent at G20 hurts world trade.
  • The USD has had a massive 5 day rally. Sure looks like its resistance level will crumble today. (see chart). Stocks have held up remarkably well through the dollars assent, but breaking through resistance is BIG. . If two resistance lines fall – watch out.
  • CSCO massive 16% decline held up though out the day. This is a huge drop for a major major tech stock on earnings. The rest of tech did remarkably well,

When you add CSCO to the dollar’s rise & the BDI’s fall its three strikes. Perhaps a silver lining here is the falling 50 day moving average for the dollar (another significant resistance level) is just $0.56 higher. The dollar is rising like a rocket, but taking out two signicant resistance levels may be hard.


Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore)
  • EEM (emerging Markets) Have stop on position at what it was bought for.
  • DGP (2x gold)
  • TYH (3x tech stocks) Bought at 40.63 yesterday. Sold 1/2 near close at at 42.06 for minor @ 3/4+% gain. Stop on the rest at 39.25 – If this gets stopped out today then there will be no gain

Short term traders – TYH was bought because the BB/HFT traders keep supporting stocks. The dollar’s gains were significantly for the 5th day in a row so I sold 1/2.  Probably should have sold it all – but greed won.

Not entering any positions on dip today, but watching UUP (tracking ETF for dollar closely).

Traders & Investors with tolerance for high risk.-  Any significant drop in equities should bring the MO down to -25 (see above) support level and an opportunity to buy. Today is very significant, if we end up with the Dow down 100+ points it will mean the MO has broken support and is probably on its way to -60 or beyond. That would be a point we could start to nibble again.

Investors - I know its been a long wait for the MO to agin get close to -60/oversold/ safer to buy area. Be patient and also remember when we cross -60 everyone going to be saying the sky is falling. MO at -20.02 and today some major bearish signals came into play. So we should reach oversold soon. Today is very significant, if we close with the Dow down 100+ points it will mean the MO has broken support and is probably on its way to -60 or beyond. That would be a point we could start to nibble again.

Remember we are revising YOUR Stock List so send in your choices to me or post them in the comments section of blog. YOUR Stock List works because YOU send in stock ideas. Here the guidelines for entries.

  • The 50 day moving average must be moving up. That’s the blue line if you are using Stockcharts
  • No thinly traded stocks. Absolute minimum $2.5 million dollars worth of this stocks traded each day.  (example over 500,000 shares traded and worth $5) Over $5 million is preferable. Smaller stocks are too easy manipulated by major players.
  • Maximum 2 entries.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocksETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
November 10, 2010

Your Stocks +25.92%

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

-

YOUR Stock List +25.92%

WOW! check out these results – The soon to be revised YOUR Stock List has again clobbered the S&P 500 that gained +9.35% over the same 3 months. Here’s the list that Paul compiled.

  • PCLN +42.81% (+8.25% yesterday)
  • IMAX +39.39%
  • RADS +38.51%
  • SWKS +33.76%
  • UFS +32.16
  • SAM +28.06
  • BIDU +27.39%
  • F +24.69%
  • AAPL +20.66%
  • GMCR +12.80%
  • HMIN +9.30%
  • UPS +4.66%
  • VCI -6.34%

For some more details click on POSITION section at top of blog and scroll down. Paul updates most of these stocks individually and collectively in the comments section of Investors411.

This is the second Stock List we’ve created that has clobbered the S&P 500. YOUR stock List #3 is on the way (see below)

You all deserve a pat on the back for  job well done.

Your Comments and Emails

Your choices for the stock list have begun to come in by email. I’m behind in replies. You can also post them in the comments section of the blog.

One email was of particular interest to me yesterday, since I really respect the late gifted comedian Carrol O’Conner (see yesterday’s Investors411) I had no idea of the breath of O’Conner’s talent - “Barr Just for the record Carroll  O’Connor is an actor. He may be most known as Archie but he played  “…stately plump Buck Mulligan” in the film version of Joyce’s Ulysses. See it if you haven’t. Best…BB”

He also won an Emmy (In The Heat of The Night) and two NAACP Image Awards

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.53% up
NASDQ -0.66% up
S&P -0.81% up
Russell 2000 -1.46% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

US Stock Markets -

Major news that’s driving dollar higher and US stocks lower is coming out of Europe. There are some weak economies in eastern Europe and some in Eurozone Some important points/causes to remember that are often forgotten by the casino capitalists.

  • Europe was impacted because so many of their banks followed the shadow US institutions and got over leveraged.
  • The recession born in the USA spread because of globalization.
  • Mismanagement of resources and debt exists their as well as here.

Still surprising that US stocks have held up so well despite a huge 3 day move up  for the dollar. = Bullish

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] For the 3rd day in a row the dollar rose a significant amount. +0.55% yesterday. Dollar broke its support level last week, but yesterday it broke back up through that resistance level. The trend for stocks = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Fell  -0.60% yesterday. BDI now consolidating after bull run that began in June. The BDI has been overshadowed by the dollar moves. Sitting directly above major support. Longer term Pattern starting to look bearish but the bears are not charging.= Bearish/NEUTRAL
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell dramatically to -9.14 yesterday.  = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves.

For almost two months we have had an unusually flat MO. It’s traded between @ +35 & -25 and has not reached +/- 60. The +35/-25 both become strong resistance/support levels.

Even though the dollar rose significantly, it opened and closed at the same price. Often this says a short term top has been achieved.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore) Reached new high yesterday, but fell with US stocks.
  • EEM (emerging Markets) Have stop on 1/2 of position at what it was bought for.
  • DGP (2x gold) Sold 1/2 position as dollar was again significantly higher. Bought at 37.99 Sold at 42.35 for +11% gain

In the last two days we’ve cashed in on 8%,16% & 11% gains in leveraged ETF’s.

Sorry - I know SSO only lasted a month (others, TYH & 1/2 of DGP, less than a week)  Most of you are looking for long term buys.

My adjusted stop got blown up on DGP and the drop here was so fast I lost @0.50%. Bummer, but that’s life in the world of High Frequency Traders. Unless you can watch your stock all day Stops are necessary.  .

Traders & Investors with tolerance for high risk.-  Any significant drop in equities should bring the MO down to -25 (see above) support level and an opportunity to buy.

Investors - I know its been a long wait for the MO to agin get close to -60/oversold/ safer to buy area. Be patient and also remember when we cross -60 everyone going to be saying the sky is falling.

Remember we are revising the watch list so send in your choices to me or post them in the comments section of blog. YOUR Stock List works because YOU send in stock ideas. Here the guidelines for entries.

  • The 50 day moving average must be moving up. That’s the blue line if you are using Stockcharts
  • No thinly traded stocks. Absolute minimum $2.5 million dollars worth of this stocks traded each day.  (example over 500,000 shares traded and worth $5) Over $5 million is preferable. Smaller stocks are too easy manipulated by major players.
  • Maximum 3 Stocks.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

CAUTION – Having so many recent winners inflates the ego and dulls reason.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
Page: /2010/11/ : TestLink1 - TestLink2 - TestLink3