Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
December 31, 2010

The Monster in the Room

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Happy New Year

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The Monster in the Room

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Investors411 believes in Transparency.

If there’s a monster in the room I want YOU to know about it. Governments, Big Business,the ruling Plutocracy, & others try to hide their actions supposedly in your interests. That, of course, is crap. They all want more power/money, usually at the expense of democracy and and your wallets.

So lets continue the Predictions for 2011 by looking at the three major economic blocks and some monsters

  • European Union - They bought into the American over leverage crony capitalism and got smacked.  Germany is the gem with an unemployment rate of 7.5%, an exporting based economy, universal health care, and a GDP  better than ours. Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy are the weak links (monsters) in the European Union.  Predictions – Either they all become more like the Germans or some of these countries will leave the European Union. That means huge belt tightening in the weak links – Lots of bumps in the road in 2011 as the debt problems of weaker countries are worked out.
  • Emerging Markets – For the most part they did NOT buy into our crony capitlalism. They’re also reaping the benefits of the mega trend of globalization –  booming job growth & GDP’s. The monster here is the problem of heating up too fast and growing too rapidly. There is also corruption and in some cases governments that are far less democratic.  Predictions – The bigger countries know how to play economic hardball. Their GDP is over 3 times ours. Those countries with an abundance of  limited natural resources will do better economically than others.
  • USA - Our over leveraged, opaque, crony capitalism created the world wide “Great Recession.” In the early 2000′s we went to war, cut taxes and exploded our debt. We dug a hole. Our unemployment rate is 9.8%. Globalization & politics have created a systemic problem of jobs being outsourced and now consumers abroad are becoming more & more  important to American companies growth. We have tried to fix the problem with stimulus, quantitative easing, and bailouts OUR monster is in the fact that we run an opaque capitalism. Our real GDP is in shambles if you eliminate stimulus, quantitative easing and other factors. Predictions - It looks like we can keep blowing smoke (opaque capitalism) through at least the first 1/2 of 2011.

MIT’s Simon Johnson sums up the situation and future as follows -

“Our leading bankers looted the state, plunged the world into deep recession, and cost us 8 million jobs.  And now many of them stand by with sharpened knives and enhanced bonuses – also most willing to suggest how the salaries and jobs of others can be further cut.  Think about the morality of that one.”

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.14% down
NASDQ -0.15% down
S&P 500 -0.15% down
Russell 2000 -0.07% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Markets were flat & volume abysmal AGAIN
  • PMI, Home sales and weekly jobless figures all came in better than expected yesterday. Perhaps the reason stocks went nowhere is  because there was no POMO buying by the Fed.
  • Big cap tech stocks are looking bullish. AAPL & CSCO have moved higher and have weak volume declines in last two days. IBM is on verge of breakout.
  • Some details on today’s major events impacting markets from Seeking Alpha.

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell again -0.34% yesterday. In consolidation pattern. However, nearing bottom/support level of consolidation pattern. = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries] Again NO DATA. Perhaps its the holidays BDI is at 1,773 and is approaching its major support at 1700 = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell a bit to +19.98 = Neutral
  • 10 year T Bill (TNX)  In consolidation pattern  Some big recent moves shows big indecision = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

A most indecisive week as many major institutional traders/investors are on vacation.

ICI (Investment Company Institute) measures the flow of money in/out of mutual funds.  After 33 weeks of funds flowing out of mutual funds the last couple have sen some inflow A week or two is not a trend, but the turn is= Bullish

Investors411 mantra – The reason stocks went up while money was flowing out of mutual funds was the FED’s quantitative easing boosting stocks. So we could see a money supply surprise for early January.

  • The FED POMO program continues through April
  • New year bonuses get invested
  • Some folks are getting back into the markets

Repeat- AAPL the world’s #1 tech stock is the canary in the coal mine. If the General rolls over watch out.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) – 1/2 position
  • #2 UWM
  • EUO - (double short the EURO currency) sold all at 20.51 for -1% loss
  • UCO – (double long oil) sold all at 20.18 for -1% loss
  • SLV - (Silver ETF) Bought Wednesday at (see comments section of blog.)
  • DGP -(2x gold ETF) Bought yesterday at 41.86

Under consideration

UCO -(2x oil prices) Oil prices got over extended and a short term reversal is to be expected. The chart is bullish (series of 3 higher highs and positive slope to 20DMA) over Over the last six months each correction or consolidation seems to have been for about 10 days.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Way too hot to buy now. Like a zillion investors who missed this initial jump we are waiting for a pullback. The story here is compelling. There’s a limited supply of this material and high demand. It takes 7 to 19 years to get a new mine up and running and China has almost a lock on existing supplies

EWZ (Brazil) & LBJ ( 3x Latin America – majority Brazil) Obviously the later is more risky. Both made significant moves higher in last few days. Probably due to move in rare earth metals and the fact that Brazil is rich in other needed natural resources.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Note – I have changed a lot of the Chart links to include the 17 Day Moving Average. (green line)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 30, 2010

YOUR Comments

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Popeye & Mama Jama (AKA Olive Oil)

Your Comments

Mama JamaAre 25 hedge fund managers are worth 658,000 teachers? The 25 moguls/oligarchs who run the giant hedge funds and only get taxed at 15% are earning $25 billion a year vs and average teacher whose salary is 38k per year (plus benefits) and being taxed at 28% – Only in America.

Want to learn more about the Ten biggest Lies or Distortion Wall Street is feeding Main Street from Les Leopold

Popeye - This comment caught both Paul and my attention yesterday It summarizes globalization & US political impact on Main Street – Big business no longer needs the American consumer to grow. To them the Chinese consumer is replacing them. (You could replace China with the word emerging market consumer)

So not only are jobs being outsource, but so are consumers.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.09% down
NASDQ +0.15% down
S&P 500 +0.10% down
Russell 2000 +0.10% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Markets were flat & volume abysmal AGAIN
  • Yesterday rare earth metals exploded higher. The new ETF for the sector REMX was up over 7% on a climax run.
  • Can’t emphasize this point enough - The Fed has now accumulated over a trillion dollars worth of T bonds  from its 21 Prime Dealers (Big financial institutions) These institutions all have trading desks that invest a lot of that money in stocks. It also helps to keep a lid on Treasury yields and the new currency helps drive down the dollar. Without quantitative easing and low interest rates stocks would not have made the gains they have over the last 18+ months.
  • China has almost cornered the market on rare earth materials.

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar fell a significant -0.71% yesterday. In consolidation pattern, but another significant drop and stocks should react positively.= Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Again NO DATA. Perhaps its the holidays BDI is at 1,773 and is approaching its major support at 1700 = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell a bit to +19.98 Neutral
  • 10 year T Bill (TNX) Two days ago the Treasury bond yield went up about 4% and yesterday down the same 4%. Strange – stocks did NOT reacted to either major move. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

We had some odd moves on the significant forecasting tools (see above) and No real reaction from stocks.

However, if the dollar and T bill yields continue to fall like yesterday  - It sure looks like the Fed’s manipulations through quantitative easing and low interest rates are having a significant impact.   This would be good for US stocks. Two points investors are looking at suggest quantitative easing may continue/ morph into QE3#

  • The deep economic trouble of state budgets (see Meg Whitman’s comments in last weeks blog)
  • Continued high unemployment.

AAPL the world’s #! tech stock is the canary in the coal mine. If the General rolls over watch out.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)

  • #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) – Sold 1/2  for +9% profit
  • #2 UWM
  • EUO - (double short the EURO currency)
  • UCO – (double long oil) Bought Tuesday at  12.39 (this is a trade of short duration)
  • SLV – (Silver ETF) Bought Wednesday at (see comments section of blog.)

Selling 1/2 of UCO at open and putting a 2% stop loss on the rest. This ETF is currently at the price it was bought for. See yesterday for explanation)

Buying GDX – (The double gold ETF) –  A lot of the rise in price in gold has to do with the Fed’s print and dump of money. It says instability and gold says stability. GDC has dipped recently.

SLV has reacted technically even better than gold. It also has industrial uses

EUO have a stop placed at what it was bought for. It’s about 2% above that right now.

Your Stock ListPaul informs me that YSL#3 is currently under performing the benchmark S&P 500 +5.05% to +3.78%. Disappointing results However, there have been 13 gainers vs. 3 Losers. – It’s been two of those losers that have dragged down the entire list. Both are Chinese internet relate stocks that have big losses – BIDU & especially SOHU (More later)

UWMThe Critic informs me that the UWM (our major ETF position) that was bought on the same date as YSL#3 was published (11/22) for 35.76 is up +22% over same periodSince Investors411 has both bought and purchased double and triple positions in this market basket ETF, she is compiling a more complete record.

I’ve tried a lot of other ETF’s that have been less successful over the same period. Example EEM, which was held on the same day UWM was purchased was sold earlier for a +4% profit.

Comparing the two is like comparing apples and oranges. Especially since many of the ETF’s turned out to be short term trades.

Diversity is the key here. I strongly feel that having both ETF and stock selection has merit and is a way of diversification. YSL numbers 1 &2 outperformed the benchmark S&P by over 2 to 1.

Let’s give it all more time before the final results are in. Then learn from what was done.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL)-

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 29, 2010

Stock Outlook for 2011

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

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Stocks 2011

The economic outlook for the USA is no better than 2009 or 2010. Every time we learn more about the unregulated, over leveraged 2008 financial and housing meltdown the wore it gets.

The 3 dominant mega trends are still significantly impacting economics and stocks across the world. Investors411 has added a 4th – Lies/deception/opaque capitalism.  The 4th trend is growing in the world’s largest economy – the USA & ultimately will devastate economics if it continue.

The problems in the USA are both systemic and due to our dependence of unregulated, opaque, casino capitalism.

There are sectors, countries and asset classes that should do well in 2011. So here’s a rough list that I will  go over in detail tomorrow and Friday

  • Gold
  • US financials (I hate these bastards)
  • Brazil, Norway & other energy rich countries
  • Rare earth sector (from steel to solar materials)
  • China’s wind and solar power industry
  • Energy
  • Even US major indexes should do well – as long as Fed supports them.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.18% up
NASDQ -0.16% up
S&P 500 +0.08% flat
Russell 2000 -0.36% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Markets were flat & volume abysmal
  • Infamous AIG rocketed almost +10% higher Monday. Opened higher  and ended day with slight loss. AIG held almost all of 10% gain is Bullish for stock and shadow financials.
  • Repeat – Weak trading means two entities dominate High Frequency Traders and the Fed.
  • Double dip In Housing Prices is happening. – Roubini – Data seems to back up his conclusion that home values are on way down again.
  • Decline in housing value is bad news economically for the economy & your house. But good news for stocks because it gives Fed more justification to keep quantitative easing and low interest rates going.
  • Consumer confidence dips amid job worries

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar was unchanged  0.00% yesterday. It started out way down and recovered. In consolidation pattern= Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Both sources have not posted BDI results for yesterday. Strange & I do not know why. From yesterday – BDI is at 1,773 and rapidly approaching its major support at 1700= Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell a bit to +9.98 = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Paul R stated last evening in comments section that “Looking at the charts and market internals again, things are NOT looking good. Market leaders are breaking down.”

He’s Right - Nothing has felt right about this overbought market. All the major indexes are over extended above their 50 day moving averages. Many of the momentum stocks are consolidating or heading down. This is also a strange holiday week & because of the ultra light volume so its hard to make a clear call.

AAPL is the big kahuna out there for stocks and especially technology. It’s not over bought. If you look at the chart you can see a pretty constant 6 week trend where Apple moves,let’s cal it one standard deviation higher than its rising 50 day moving average. APPL inched out to a new high yesterday. If Apple breaks down watch out!

Always remember – This market is being held up by artificial means – the Fed. That means when bad news occurs like housing prices dipped for 4th straight month & consumer confidence is falling – stock traders think the answer will be more quantitative easing by Fed. This doesn’t mean we can’t have a correction, but over 18+ months its shown there is support under stocks that make buying the dip successful.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)

  • #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) – Sold 1/2  for +9% profit
  • #2 UWM
  • EUO – (double short the EURO currency)
  • UCO – (double long oil) Bought Tuesday at  12.39 (this is a trade of short duration)

Below is rather technical and might make your eyes glass over. However, if you want to have the basic tools for investing I do strongly urge you go to Chart School (see below)

UCO - Trade -Reasoning –  This is NOT a trade I should have made in Investors411 because it breaks the basic strategy of buy the dip of a trending sector. My bad – several of you sent me personal emails on this and the following is my reply.

  • To make any trades (as opposed to long term investments) you have to understand candlestick chart patterns,
  • In fact, StockCharts – perhaps THE best FREE site on technical analysis has a who tutorial or school section.
  • Almost All the links to charts at Investors411 are links to StockCharts.com charts from the $USD to the individual stocks listened on Your Stock List in the POSITIONS section of blog.
  • Tom DeMark developed a 9 day momentum trading system that has nothing to do with Stockcharts, but to understand the system you have to know how to use candlestick charts.
  • Here’s a good example of the DeMark system on ETF’s in video I did go over this on Dec. 1.
  • I believe UCO is going to be a good long term investment because oil is likely to hit $100 or more. Historically oil prices go up as summer riving season approaches and emerging markets are demanding more oil.
  • However oil prices are at a new yearly high and a long term investor (not trader) should buy the dip in UCO.
  • What I saw was a half decent DeMark 9 trade. A breakout that had yet to run out of momentum. It had only 6 days of momentum from a low and I plan to get out on the 9th.
  • This is not the best use of this system. Another reason I regret announcing the UCO trade.
  • However I will hold onto UCO till day 9 and willing to take a 2% hit on the ETF. (I placed a 2% stop below the price I bought it for)

Bottom Line – there are a lot of trading systems out there. This is one of the better known. None of these systems is perfect. I just happened on this system over a decade ago and often use it for shorter term momentum trades. From DeMark’s Wikipedia listing “His timing techniques have become the industry’s standard.”

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL)-

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 28, 2010

Phineas Taylor Barnum

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Read it all..

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December 27, 2010

2011 Prediction Week

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , ,

The Results from 2010 and Prediction for 2011

2010

Prediction Week2010, like 2009 was the the year of great recovery for stocks and a continued Great Recession for most working class Americans.

The Great Recovery for equities is seen from the rise of the benchmark S&P 500 from 667 (Spring 2009) to today’s 1257. One of the best editorials on how US equities have been manipulated higher can be found here This does need some filling in and further explanation but it shows one major way stocks have been manipulated higher.

The Great Recession for working class Americans.

  • Even though unemployment rate has fallen from  -750,000 jobs a month to about +50,000 the rate remains at 9.8%
  • The vast majority (3/4) of Americans still believe we are in a recession
  • Systemic problems due to globalization & politics exist in the USA.

Jim J has sent in an outstanding short 2 minute video video – Trends in Income Inequality (see comments section.)

The simple reality is we are breaking apart into two different Americas – A wealthy plutocracy/oligarchy class and the working and non working poorer class.

Sorry will edit this further later today – Have to snow blow this AM

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.12% down
NASDQ -0.22% down
S&P 500 -0.16% down
Russell 2000 -0.21% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Ultra light holiday volume and markets went nowhere.
  • China had a “surprise” +0.25% rise in interest rates over weekend = Bearish for commodities and stocks today.
  • Outlook for the week form Seeking Alpha
  • 74.4% of the time the light volume last week of the year is positive. Trouble here is we’ve already had a great month.
  • Holiday sales are going to be what investors are interested in this week.

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar was flat  -0.02%yesterday. = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]BDI fell another significant amount -1.91% Thursday. BDI is at 1,795 and rapidly approaching its major support at 1700Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell a bit to +15.46 = Neutral

Reading The Tea Leaves

From Friday – “Dark CloudsNo one went broke taking profits and there are some short and perhaps long term dark clouds on horizon.”

It sure looks like its time for some sort of correction even though this has historically been a good week for stocks. The Chinese rise in interest rates coupled with the fall in the BDI (the late is especially troubling for emerging markets and therefore the world long term). The Chinese rate hike will hurt today, but the BDI is a problem long term.

Bottom Line & Reality = Readers of Investors411 have known for many moons that this is a “manipulated market” Most of the retail investors have left and show no signs of coming back. Our Fed with its low interest rates, QE1 &QE2 plus some other measures has been the mechanism used to more equities higher. In a historically light week of trading their dumping of money, which is scheduled to continue through April will artificially produce buyers.

However, another factor outside the USA that has kept US equities moving higher is emerging markets. They did NOT get over leveraged like the uncontrolled casino capitalism of what we call “free market.” Right now there is a problem in emerging markets. So many new people are finding jobs and their GDP are growing so rapidly that they have to put on the breaks to keep from growing too fast and causing inflation.

Therefore, China raised interest rates.

It will take anywhere from a this AM to a few days for US equities to adjust (fall) to adjust to the news. Then if there is no follow up unexpected event the old low volume melt up should continue.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)

  • EEM - (Emerging Markets ETF) Sold last 1/2 for 46.38 for a +3% profit. Other 1/2 was for +5% profit Total +4%
  • #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) – Sold 1/2 for 43.53 for +9% profit
  • #2 UWM
  • EUO – (double short the EURO currency) Bought Friday at 20.76

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL)-

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 23, 2010

Christmas Can Can

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Johnson

Simon Johnson

The Christmas Can Can

Great Fun Video, Unfortunately when there is usually a 20 second add when over a million people see a You Tube video. (Thanks to MW for the video)

Chest Thumping – Koreas

North Korea says its ready for a nuclear “Holy War.” and South Korea vows “merciless counterattack” if attacked again. South Korea launched a “major land and sea exercise” today. Reuters Story

Obama and 2011

In the comments section of the blog both JS (who predicted START would pass) & EW have been supporting Obama as a realist and pointing to his accomplishments in the lame duck congress. Here’s part of EW’s comment yesterday -

“Let’s look at Obama’s results beyond the Tax Compromise.

1) After 17 years DADT legislation passed
2) 19 judges just put on bench (some held up for over 6 months)
3) Republicans withered and First Responders Act passed
4) START just passed 71 to 26

Now tell me you’re not happy voting for Obama instead of McCain/Palin.”

Its hard to argue with their logic, but a different, not  opposing, point of view from Simon Johnson in Bloomberg – “Tax Cutters Set Up Tomorrow’s Fiscal Crisis.” Johnson argues

“At this point, we will have only two choices: Raise taxes or cut spending…. But there’s a problem. The U.S. government doesn’t take in much tax revenue — at least 10 percentage points of GDP less than comparable developed economies –and it also doesn’t spend much except on the military, Social Security and Medicare. Other parts of government spending can be frozen or even slashed, but it just won’t make that much difference.”

So, since we’ve announced no tax cuts for the next 2 years -

To avoid the impending fiscal crisis we cut grandma and/or the military.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.23% down
NASDQ +0.15% down
S&P 500 +0.34% down
Russell 2000 +0.01% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Typical melt up in light/abysmal volume. Nothing out of ordinary, especially in holiday week
  • Everyone’s bullish. You can’t help but come across article saying the sky is falling because there are too many bulls out there.
  • As Investors411 has repeatedly stated a whole lot of money has come out of Treasury Bonds recently (10 year T bill), but the abysmal shows its NOT going into stocks.
  • There are some, (I think a bit better case) who think the strong bullish sentiment is nothing to worry about.
  • And the bulls that think the NASDQ will run to 3000 next year
  • All major indexes again at new highs for the year.

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar was flat  +0.01% yesterday. = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]BDI fell another significant amount -2.97% yesterday. This was a massive two day drop of 6.5% Real trouble here (for more see last few Investors411′s)= Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell a bit to +22.79 From a low of -85 on Nov. 15th the MO chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows. A bullish pattern. We just reached  the highest high. So, it might be time for  the MO to dip back down and create hopefully a lower high Still overall MO’s position is= Neutral

Reading The Tea Leaves -

Dark Clouds

Admittedly there is a good chance that we will go on marching ahead with the slow melt up. Investors411 has repeatedly descried the conditions that have set this in motion. They still exist. Old Wall Street Phrase – “Markets can remain irrational” longer than you can stay solvent”

But no one went broke taking profits and there are some short and perhaps long term dark clouds on horizon

  • BDI is falling too rapidly
  • MO is at a 6 week high (short term drop possible)
  • Rising yields on the T Bill or Treasury bonds (not critical yet, but going in wrong direction)
  • Rising oil prices. (not critical yet, but going in wrong direction)
  • Koreas (see above)
  • Too many bulls out there (see above)


——

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)

  • EEM - (Emerging Markets ETF) -1/2 positions sold
  • #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) -
  • #2 UWM
  • EUO – (double short the EURO currency) Bought Friday at 20.76

Selling the rest of EEM this AM (about a 3+% gain) and 1/2 of the first UWM position. (about a 9+% gain) No one went broke taking profits. UWM is just too over extended, so taking some off the table and EEM is under performing US markets & the BDI sinking too fast. Investors411 did hold onto this position for over a month, sorry about it not being longer.

TYH - (3x techs) is a position that is not as over bought as UWM right now. Would consider it on a larger dip.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL)-

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 22, 2010

The End of Men

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,
Hannah Rosen

-

The End of Men

Hanna Rosen has shaken some of the Insiders (see below) to the core with a culture clash gem/editorial – The End of Men - Edited into bullet points below

  • “Earlier this year, women became the majority of the workforce for the first time in U.S. history.
  • Most managers are now women too.
  • And for every two men who get a college degree this year, three women will do the same.

  • For years, women’s progress has been cast as a struggle for equality. But what if equality isn’t the end point? What if modern, postindustrial society is simply better suited to women? A report on the unprecedented role reversal now under way— and its vast cultural consequences….”

Men may be threatened by this so I suggest only women check out the video presentation Rosen writes for the Atlantic where you can find the whole editorial

Insiders and Outsiders

From The Library of Economics Liberty an absolutely fascinating piece on  how our government works. In goes into depth on The Symbolic Uses of Politics, by Murray Edelman. Here’s some quotes on Arnold King’s review of Edelman’s work

Edelman divided the political sphere into insiders and outsiders (Kling’s terms). Insiders are basically special interests: small in number but well organized and with specific goals. Outsiders, or the “unorganized masses,” are the rest of us: we have some interests, but we are poorly organized to pursue them and therefore are generally unsuccessful. In particular, Outsiders suffer from poor and limited information, and therefore are especially susceptible to political symbols.

“Given these differences, the Insiders use overt political dramas as symbols that placate the masses while using covert political activity to plunder them. What we would now call rent-seeking succeeds because Outsiders are dazzled by the symbols while Insiders grab the substance.”

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.48% up
NASDQ +0.68% down
S&P 500 +0.60% down
Russell 2000 +1.05% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Typical melt up in light/abysmal volume. Nothing out of ordinary, especially in holiday week
  • As long as the Fed is buying bonds and the primary banks (wink wink) deploy that money low trading days of the holiday season should see some more  melt ups.
  • Now Fed is not just stimulating USA, but seems to be helping Europeans Oh, is there going to be a war between Bernanke & Ron Paul in a month or two.
  • What’s up in fundamentals for today – GDP and more
  • Interesting eye candy – The 25 best and worst performing stocks since Lehman’s went belly up.
  • All major indexes at new highs for the year.

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose slightly +0.11%. yesterday. Moving slowly toward its early Dec high for last 6 days For stocks = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Rate of fall increased to -3.35% yesterday. This was a massive one day drop = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell a bit to +15.87 This gives stocks lots of room to move up or down. = Neutral

Reading The Tea Leaves -

The BDI is not an index many analysts watch. But it is very relevant to world trade and especially emerging markets. When it is on the rise emerging markets are almost always outperforming. (see Monday’s Investors411 for more). BDI at 1886 with major support at 1700. This is the dark cloud on the horizon.

Major indexes are pretty far above their 50DMA indicating we are close to oversold. Do not expect any huge moves.

——-

Yesterday Paul R came up with this great investing tool that every trader/investor should consider before buying/selling. Here’s the post from the comments section of the blog. Check out yesterday’s comments for more. –

Take a look at the following stock charting site.

http://www.monest.net/tools/st…

It has a very neat charting function where you can plot the large volume trade/players against the small volume trade/players.

See diagram:

http://people.delphiforums.com…

Select the indicator shown on the upper right of the chart, enter your stock symbol on the upper left and draw the chart. Look at the bottom of the chart to see large vs. small players.

As you can see on the chart TRW has seen large trades taper off while the small trades increased. The thinking is, be careful of a stock when large volume trades are falling while small volume trades are increasing.

Take a look at your favorite stocks.

——

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)

  • EEM - (Emerging Markets ETF) -1/2 positions sold
  • #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) -
  • #2 UWM
  • EUO – (double short the EURO currency) Bought Friday at 20.76

Santa Clause rally for all our stock positions is in progress.

UWM - Up +2.23% yesterday. All this week and most day for over a month this ETF that Investors411 has a double position in has outperformed other major indexes.

EEM - Up +1.47% yesterday. Reason for yesterday’s outperformance was that it’s been under performing for weeks and therefore bounced higher. Again under performing major US markets over last month considering taking profits on last 1/2. Will place the 2% trailing stop loss on this ETF today

EUO - Up +0.47% yesterday Has started out in the green up almost 3%. Will take profits on 1/2 this trade if it reaches 5% Stop placed at what it was bough for.

Your Stock List #3 – 14 of the 16 stocks in YSL moved higher yesterday. A couple had some very song moves.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL)-

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 21, 2010

Arrogance, Greed, Contempt

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Of all the signs of gloating arrogance and contempt our billionaire plutocracy has for Main Street America this year none can top Steve Schwartzman the oligarch at Blackstone Group.

While low income American seniors turn down their thermostats to save money over this cold winter Schwartzman

complained that any attempt to make him pay actual income tax on his income was akin to

“when Hitler invaded Poland.”

“In any civilized society he would now be pariah.” (see Arends editorial below) but in America he is a hero.

Schwartzman, “who grudgingly issued a partial retraction” is the hero of almost every news outlet from FOX to CNBC who breathlessly hang on his every word.

As Yankee Bob put in in the comments section of the blog The oligarchy controls the media.

The Great Bank Heist of 2010

From Market Watch’s Bret Arends – Some money quotes -

“This was the year America finally took on the power and greed of the Wall Street banks. And the banks won.

They dodged the bullet of real reform, probably for all time. They bounced back to post huge profits, helped by legal theft from the middle class. They completed their takeover of both political parties — and bought themselves a new Congress even more pliable than the old one.

Middle-class America is flattened, devastated and broke. The bankers that caused it all have escaped punishment. They’re raking in huge profits. Oh, and the tax cuts just got extended for high earners, too!

Game over”!

Obama & Biden Sing

“So long to ya 2010″ – A 2 minute fun song/video from Jib Jab

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.12% down
NASDQ +0.25% down
S&P 500 +0.05% down
Russell 2000 +0.36% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Municipal Bonds are a dark cloud on horizon. The Obama stimulus kept them afloat, now Meg Whitman & others say there are signs of danger.
  • Fracking stocks. Yep, you read it right Fracking stocks
  • President St. Louis Fed (a video) James Bullard on Republican Ron Paul & other critics. Another dark cloud on horizon will be the bombs thrown by Paul, who is in a powerful position & the Fed in 2010.
  • Another day of slow melt up in light volume with small caps and techs leading stocks – the trend for many moons.

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose slightly Friday+0.32%. yesterday. Moving toward its early Dec high for last 5 days For stocks = Bearish/Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Rate of fall increased to -2.20% Friday. (see yesterday’s Investors411) = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] fell a bit to -1.80 This gives stocks lots of room to move up or down. = Neutral

Reading The Tea Leaves -

Here the truth -

As most of you know, Investors411 has a great record over the last 5 years in making educated guesses on how to invest. However, some 50% to 80% of the money invested in US equities is controlled by a wealthy oligarchy that uses High Frequency Trades to find market imbalances and then  invest.

Basically they are shooting fish in a barrel while we make our educated guesses.

This is NOT your parents buy and hold market anymore. You can still outperform as Investors 411 has shown with YSL & leveraged ETF’s. But beware at some time American’s are going to wake up to how they are being used.

——

The overall condition of US stocks keeps slowly deteriorating. What’s holding it all together is the manipulation (maybe a kinder word would be the stimulation) by the Fed, Obama Tax compromise, low interest rates and other  entities/policies. $16 billion got printed & dumped yesterday.

One Bottom Line – Since the benchmark S&P 500 hit its lows of 667 in March of 2009 all the Fed/government stimulus has juiced markets to 1247.  Investors should be falling on their knees kissing the feet of the Obama administration – yet they (at least if you watch the #1 financial channel) CNBC) hate him

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)

  • EEM - (Emerging Markets ETF) -1/2 positions sold
  • #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) -
  • #2 UWM
  • EUO - (double short the EURO currency) Bought Friday at 20.76

Repeat from Monday

UWM – Note that even though major US indexes makes small gains that the Russell 2000 (small caps stocks) usually does better than its other three sisters (see box above) UWM is an ETF that does 2x what small caps do.

EEM - Even though we are still in the green with this this ETF it is under performing US stocks. The BDI is a good forecast tool for emerging markets that rely on trade more so than more developed countries. The whole world, of course, relies on trade. So considering selling the remainder- hopefully in a rally

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL)-

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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December 20, 2010

Liar, Liar, Pants on …

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

The claim that the Democratic health care law is a "government takeover of health care" is our 2010 Lie of the Year.

-

Liar Liar Pants on Fire

The #1 Political Lie of the Year

From PolitiFacts, an organization that that takes shots at ALL politicians and groups, the #1 lie of the year. A drum role please…

The LIE

“A Government Takeover of Health Care”

Pants on Fire!

LINK to Story Once the Tea Party, Fox News, Business lobbyists and right wing political bomb throwers got finished destroying any rational debate on Health Care THE LIE that it was a government takeover still being used today won out over other political fabrications.

What really happened was a “free market” (giveaway to the big insurance companies) takeover instead of the compromise public option -The approach favored by almost all other Western Democracies.  But who could tell because American media focus is on who screams the loudest.

In American Society if you REPEAT THE LIE ENOUGH TIMES IT BECOMES THE TRUTH.

Does Conrgess Serve You or the Banks?

Quote from incoming Republican House Financial Services Committee chair and Tea Party favorite Spencer Bachus

in Washington, the view is that the banks are to be regulated, and my view is that Washington and the regulators are there to serve the banks.”

I’m not joking this is a real quote - LINK here for full story. You may not like him, but at least former chair Democrat Barney Frank often stood up for taxpayers and wasn’t 100% in the back pocket of Shadow Banks.

Shadow Banking Bonuses

Irony is this AM CNBC’s (By far the largest stock market cheerleading outlet) is headlining that Bankers in Europe are having their bonuses cut. Now that Republican/Tea Party people are coming to power how about those Wall Street shadow banks bonus and compensation packages for the six biggest shadow banks. Care to guess how much they get?

seiu bank comp 2010-12.png

Here’s the SEIU (a labor union) on what the Shadow bankers make.

We are about to endure a right wing feeding freenzy over the next few years of asking cops, firefighters, teachers, municipal workers, government employees to cut, freeze (freeze part done by Obama with Federal workers) their salaries and/or loose their jobs.  How about considering the shadow bankers????


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.06% up
NASDQ +0.21% up
S&P 500 +0.08% up
Russell 2000 +0.38% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose slightly Friday+0.24%. yesterday. However closed just above a two week consolidation range. A breakout here would be bullish for the dollar and bearish for stocks. = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Rate of fall increased to -1.43% Friday. (see below) = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] rose to +1.01 This gives stocks lots of room to move up or down. Neutral

Reading The Tea Leaves -

Friday’s blog made a clear Bulls and bears case. The outlook for the bulls seemed stronger till the end of the year. Outside events like a North vs. South Korea escalation would negatively impact stocks.

  • The BDI has fallen 700 points in the last two months. Its at 1999 and has a major support at around 1700. That’s the line in the sand bad news support level. If the BDI falls below this big bad bears should rile. Even the 700 point drop is significant. In late spring/early summer the benchmark S&P fell about 10%. Correspondingly the BDI fell a huge 2400 points to 1700. Therefore relatively a 700 point drop is not that bad, but it happening while stocks are RISING. This is a divergence to keep an eye on.
  • The dollar is also pushing out to the upside of a short consolidation range. Another bearish grow that’s worth watching.

Markets obviously change due to outside events. So while the case for the bulls remains stronger the case for the bear is growing.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)

  • EEM - (Emerging Markets ETF) -1/2 positions sold
  • #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) -
  • #2 UWM
  • EUO - (double short the EURO currency) Bought Friday at 20.76

UWM - Note that even though major US indexes makes small gains that the Russell 2000 (small caps stocks) usually does better than its other three sisters (see box above) UWM is an ETF that does 2x what small caps do.

EEM – Even though we are still in the green with this this ETF it is under performing US stocks. The BDI is a good forecast tool for emerging markets that rely on trade more so than more developed countries. The whole world, of course, relies on trade. So considering selling the remainder.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” -

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!


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December 17, 2010

375 Days

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

375 Days – START

Its now been 375 days since American inspectors have been allowed to inspect Russian nuclear weapons facilities. 5 months since the original treaty was signed. In that time 900  questions asked by Senators have received written answers on the next START Treaty. The treaty has been endorsed by everyone from the Joint Chiefs of Staff to Condi Rice to our NATO allies.

The globe realizes that terrorism is the #1 enemy.

Doesn’t it make sense to better secure these weapons to protect not only our troops, but our own lives. “Trust but Verify” was the credo when this started and it should be today.  So why are so many right wingers doing everything possible to destroy this treaty and give terrorist  a potential bigger less transparent supply of nukes  to choose from?

  • Tom Friedman quote in an earlier Investors411 mentioned they don’t want Obama to have success. Imagine putting politics in front of the safety of Americans.
  • There are many on the right ,like their #1 spokesperson, Rush Limbaugh who believe Pelosi & Reid are the terrorists and the administration is like Al Capone’s
  • There are those who want endless war with the rest of the world.
  • There are those who realize that the military industrial complex desperately needs to kill this treaty because it will cost $10 or perhaps $100s of billion of dollars  in revenue. Just imagine the  fear mongered money  to be made if the world started to rearm with nukes. Big campaign donations at stake here.

There is a very powerful oligarchy who make a lot of $$$$$ from fear. They know how to manipulate the frightened sheep, even in obvious cases like this.

-

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.36% up
NASDQ +0.77% down
S&P +0.62% flat
Russell 2000 +1.07% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

The Obama Tax compromised passed last night. It will have no short term impact on stocks, but an obvious long term impact because it raises GDP & deficits, and creates jobs. Reuters has an interesting  “all candy and no spinach” analysis “but at least it shows that President Barack Obama and Republicans can cooperate on fiscal issues.”

Investors are by the boatloads are getting out of Treasury bonds. This is really a massive move. The Tea Leaves here are saying these investors see an IMPROVING economy and that should mean inflation. Dave Moenning is a very credible analyst on why the “herd of investors” are getting out of bonds

“now that even amateur economists can see that the economy is improving and everyone and their grandmother is saying that it is time to “sell bonds and buy stocks,” no one wants to be caught with an oversized amount of government bonds on their books going into 2011.”

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar was flat yesterday -0.10%. yesterday. near top of short a consolidation range = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets,&  exporting countries]Rate of fall increased to -0.93%yesterday. Broke downside support a couple bays back, downside momentum is trouble = Bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] rose to -3.09Neutral

Reading The Tea Leaves -

The bears strongest case is the falling BDI – Lower trading prices show a slow down in in imports/exports. This translates into a right now very small drop in GDP for emerging markets. If it continues we have problems. Obviously housing, European debt & employment problems exist.

The bulls case – Fed Ex was the latest sign that American companies are improving (the herd believes this) + QE 2 juice + Obama compromise juice+ India & China growing at 8 to 10% GDP (a 1% slip not that bad)+ everyone panicking to get out of bonds (where does the $$ go – stocks)  = Strong set up for January earnings reports.

Relativity – The US dollar rises almost 1.00% two days ago and stocks loose some ground. The dollar falls 1/10th that amount and stocks rally more than the fell the previous day

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)

  • EEM - (Emerging Markets ETF) -1/2 positions sold
  • #1 UWM - (2x small cap stocks ETF) – Sold last 1/2 bought at 38.75 sold at 40.34 Gain almost  +7%. First 1/2 of trade made +9% so total trade = +8%
  • #2 UWM-
  • #3 UWM

Mistake, at least in short term, to sell 1/2 UWM position early in day because the ETF was up 2% for the day. Still looking to buy dip/add to positions with leveraged ETF’s

New considerations

  • EUO - an ETF that double shorts the EURO – Europe far more than the USA is taking fiscal medicine to solve debt crisis. More importantly they are becoming fiscally transparent while we remain opaque. So in short term Euro is going to suffer.
  • PST - an ETF that double shorts 7 to 10 year treasuries. This would be a short term trade. The herd is stampeding to get out of Treasuries before years end.

The first would be, hopefully, more long term the second a trade.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” -

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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