Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
January 31, 2011

Anger In Egypt

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Photo from Al Jazeera

It’s become obvious that the USA and other western democracies are looking for ways to stabilize what happening in Egypt. For the time being this means behind the scenes support for the dictator Mubarak. Two major headlines today from Al Jazeera

  • According to al Jazeera Israel who had stayed on sidelines is backing the dictator Mubarak.  Somewhat skeptical of this headline, because no  Israeli  government official has commented so far – it would inflame protestors and be counter productive.
  • Again according to al Jazeera Protest leaders are calling for a mega demonstration Tuesday and a national strike.
  • Caution – al Jazeera has a huge pro democracy and freedom bias for Arab countries. Also a huge anti Israel bias.

America’s dirty hidden secret.

Russia in the cold war ran a string of dictatorships that were loyal to Moscow. They used torture, killings & beatings by a secret police force to keep their dictators or ruling oligarchy in power. The USA oversees  a similar string of dictatorships that streaches from Morocco to the Gulf States. Our control may not be as tight as the Communist’s in Russia, but we certainly exert strong influence.

Some call it looking the other way because we are so dependent on oil production in the Middle East. Therefore, we say one thing about democracy and freedom while doing another.   The Russian domino’s fell one by one and after Tunisia, Egypt is the mega domino.

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Here’s an open letter to President Obama from a couple hundred University professors asking for the USA to United States to stand for democracy and freedom - “to stand with the Egyptian people it must approach Egypt through a framework of shared values and hopes, not the prism of geostrategy.”

Bottom Line – An orderly transition to democracy is preferable to a chaotic one for all parties. However, there comes a time in individual lives  and societies that you stand up for shared values or you look for excuses not to support freedom and liberty that we all cherish.

All of this is happening because we are dependent on dictatorship’s for oil and have no  concrete energy plan to break that dependence.

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.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.39% up
NASDQ -2,48% up
S&P 500 -1.79% up
Russell 2000 -2.52% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Egypt is the major news. More uncertainty = down market. Any major signs of other mostly US backed dictatorships protestors seeking freedom/democracy would be harmful to stocks. The call for a mass rally/national strike on Tuesday is the headline
  • Last week the +51,000 new jobless in the weekly jobs number was bad news for US economy. Remember, bad news for the markets means perhaps more quantitative easing from Fed. Therefore in a twisted way bad news is good for US stocks.
  • This week we will have the monthly employment number.
  • Obviously, still endorsing the concept that the Fed [POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see Investors411 for many, many moons).
  • Most stock markets are down modestly, outside the middle east. This, at first blush shows the Egyptian news has been accounted for by US equities

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a significant +0.53% Friday as investors sought the safety of the dollar due to news out of Egypt. Longer term trend Two+ weeks of dramatic fal is still bearish for dollar,  and therefore for stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]  Dramatic fall for MO to -24.70 Starting to get to oversold but still but still = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Egypt is obviously the # 1 consideration. This is a potentially very volatile situation that can spread that’s impossible to call. So get ready for whatcould be a roller coaster ride.

Our major warning last week came from a Tom DeMark and another from and Ian Woodward HGSI Paul R’s favorite analyst- see comment section of blog) The Dow is up 9 weeks in a row (you may have to exclude Friday) and many analysts feel that’s overbought in the long term.

It looks like the volatility that was apparent Friday and throughout the weekend on worldwide stock exchanges has settled down. Most major worldwide exchanges are down slightly.

The Super bowl is coming up and America’s short attention span could waver.

What to watch for today

UUP -The dollar tracking ETF. Investors may flood into dollar because of worries in Middle East sending it higher and stocks lower. Definetly what to watch today.

AAPL –  Just a bit further away from upside breakout.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • NONE - Investors411 was stopped out of all positions at or just below the price they were bought for.
  • REMX – Lost -1 % overall because the first 1/2 was sold for a -2% loss.

Under consideration - Nothing today. But check into comment section of blog for any radical change because of Egypt. May consider a short or long position in leveraged ETF.

DDM - (2x DOW) The trend to big cap stocks is apparent.

UWM (2X small cap stocks) Hope, but doubt this will be long term hold.

UCO -(2x oil prices) All commodities, are under pressure from inflation worries in emerging markets. UCO broke support level in big way. Waiting for it to settle.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars. Really believe this a good long term holding.

FAS (3x financials) & UYG (ETF that does 2x financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions.  This sector is being manipulated higher by Fed. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Yes, this is another bubble building.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) Falling too fast. Wait till it settles.

DBC – (Commodities ETF)

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Tomorrow will be the LAST day to send pick a couple stocks and send them in to Paul & I (use my email of post in comments section) . YOU can make a difference. The more stocks that are sent in the better the chances for a YSL #4 that outperforms the market. Requirements for stock selection below.
  • the 50 Day Moving Average is Moving Higher
  • Trades $5 million dollars worth of stock each day – Multiply trading volume by stock price. {Example 500,000 shares times $10.00 price = $5,000,000}

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4) which is under construction.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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January 30, 2011

Danger Will Robinson, Danger Danger

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update

Egypt Death Toll

Photo Huffington Post

“Tunisia Tsunami”

What started in Tunisia as a revolution of oppressed people against their cruel dictator is spreading throughout the Arab world. Egypt is the epicenter of a freedom, bread and jobs revolution.

A cruel inhumane American back dictator in Egypt, Mubarak, like the cruel inhumane dictator in Iran, Ahmadinejad, is trying to crush the people’s revolution.

This is a Berlin Wall falling moment for the Arab world and a huge potential danger for the USA and the rest of the world. Why?

  • The USA has NO energy policy that will rid us of our dependence of on foreign oil and these secular  revolutions (also brewing in dictator controlled in Syria, Yemen, Algeria, Jordan and probably other countries) are in the geographic center  of the world’s largest supply of  oil.
  • The US government down to the level of producing the tear gas canisters used against those seeking freedom  demonstrates supports the Egyptian dictator.  A clear unambiguous moral choice between a dictator and freedom has emerged. Does the USA stay with the dictator or back freedom?
  • The danger is apparent for the rest of the dictators though out the world. Advances in technology are increasing awareness of the huge gap between the ruling oligarchies and suffering jobless populations.

For the USA this is another turning point in history similar to our Iraq invasion. We let our fears control our actions then, remember “Saddam  was behind 911″ and “Iraq had WMD’s.”

The USA because of our fear based political structure, can again let fear overcome reality.  If the supposed freedom loving democracies of the world do NOT stand by the people of Egypt, they and others like them will turn to the radical Islamic fundamentalists who do back their cause.

Revolutions are chaotic. Mubarak must go. This will create a vacuum and it’s hard to predict what will happen. But if we stick with our love for democracy, freedom and justice over our fears, those enlightened ideals will triumph in the end.

.

Stocks


Obviously, the chaos in Egypt has and will impact stocks.

Friday AM in the comments section of the blog I wrote –  ”Egypt’s riots are having very negative impact on world stock markets. I’ve been stopped out of all long positions. Better safe than sorry.

Stocks tank where there is uncertainty and chaos.

Monday could see a big dip at the open. Compounding this is that almost every technical analysts thinks after 9 straight weeks of gains for the DOW (8 of 9) for other indexes we are over bought.

Fear is far stronger then greed. So volume increased significantly Friday. This overwhelmed the Fed’s POMO stock market manipulations that will continue at least through June.

What will probably do well if Egypt crisis continues or spreads..

  • ETF’s that short the market.(see POSITIONS Section of blog)
  • Gold – GLD &
  • USO (oil ETF) and UCO (2x oil)

Once volume is reduced then the Fed POMO should again impact stocks.

Bottom Line – It’s time to bring out the Old Lost in Space Robot and say Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger.

Barr

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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January 28, 2011

“Chaos in Cairo”

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Egypt Protests

Egypt

Here’s the question - Do you love Freedom and Democracy more than you fear the Islamic religion? If you love freedom and democracy more you back the people. If you fear radical Islam more you back the dictator who oppresses, tortures and kills his people. .

Mohamed elBaradei former chief UN weapon’s inspector, and head opposition figure arrive in Egypt about 12 hours ago. Wikileaks reporting he is under house arrest.

Live updates can be found on Huffington Post whose headline isChaos in Cairo

Wikileaks has intercepted diplomatic cables  and also tweeting live updates describing events (Caution some graphic descriptions of what the Egyptian dictator does)

Yes, Many or Most Egyptians blame the USA for their dictator

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.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.04% up
NASDQ +0.58% flat
S&P 500 +0.22% down
Russell 2000 +0.22% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Volume is down from last few years and  just about average according to 50 Day Moving Average. Lower volume means the Fed POMO activity should have greater impact.
  • Davos is the annual conference of the worlds financial elites that is underway. You can see a slide show of the good, the bad and the ugly here
  • The seeming anomaly from yesterday was the +51,000 new jobless in the weekly jobs number. Remember bad news for the markets means perhaps more quantitative easing from Fed. Therefore in a twisted way bad news is good for US stocks Another source
  • Obviously, still endorsing the concept that the Fed [POMO [schedule] is and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see Investors411 for many, many moons).
  • Here’s the Federal Crisis Inquiry Commissions full report on the 2008 meltdown. Gangsters/Banksters did bad. OMG, Congress people may even use harsh words or do NOTHING to those crooks who have cost so many so much money.

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell a modest -0.22% yesterday. The two week dramatic fall of the dollar continues. Dow 12 of last 14 trading days For stocks this is = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]  MO rose slightly to end at +14.40. Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Nothing new to add here except MO is getting higher and as markets become more over bought. But still [60 - 14.40 = 45.60] a lot of wiggle room before stocks get overbought according to MO.

Our major warning this week came from a Tom DeMark and other technical analysts who point out 9 up weeks in a row for DOW & 8 of 9 for other major indexes.  We are also just below some major resistance levels

As long as the FED POMO program keeps dumping dollars into the economy and the more bad economic news there is verifies the Fed’s desire to dump, the stock bubble should keep building.

So for now, the Fed trumps


What to watch for today

UUP -The dollar tracking ETF. Three week bearish trend continues. Dollar down = stocks up.

Dow & S&P 500 Index – Both are just blow major psychological resistance levels Dow 12,000 and S&P 13,000. Breaking these  with confirmation would be bullish

AAPL –  Just a bit further away from upside breakout.

_________________

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • DDM - (2x Dow stocks) Will take profits on 1/2 this position at + 3 or 4% instead of the usual 5+%
  • REMX - (rare earth metals)(1/2 position)
  • UWM – ( 2X small cap stocks) Bought on 26th for 42.53. Will take profits on 1/2 at 5+%. Stops in place for all ETF today at price they were bought for.

Under consideration - Looking to add more on dip. (see comments section of blog for inter day timing)

DDM - (2x DOW) The trend to big cap stocks is apparent.

UWM (2X small cap stocks) Hope, but doubt this will be long term hold.

UCO -(2x oil prices) All commodities, are under pressure from inflation worries in emerging markets. UCO broke support level in big way. Waiting for it to settle.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars. Really believe this a good long term holding.

FAS (3x financials) & UYG (ETF that does 2x financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions.  This sector is being manipulated higher by Fed. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Yes, this is another bubble building.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) Falling too fast. Wait till it settles.

*DBC - (Commodities ETF) DBC - New today and would buy any smaller dip. More to come

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YOUR Stock List #4 is Under Construction.
The previous three beat their benchmark S&P 500. (closed before earning – we are seeing or compiling data what they do after earnings) Results ranged from +190% to plus 22% over S&P on the total lists. See Positions Section of blog for more.
Here’s what YOU can do. Send a a short list (mo more than 3) of your favorite stocks in to me by email or list them in the comments section. Only requirements -
  • the 50 Day Moving Average is Moving Higher
  • Trades $5 million dollars worth of stock each day – Multiply trading volume by stock price. {Example 500,000 shares times $10.00 price = $5,000,000}

This List works because of YOUR participation. Both Paul and I will go over it and whittle it down. Then we are going to add them too some of the stocks from YSL #3.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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January 27, 2011

Snow Day/Egypt

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Another Snow Day

I’m again one with my Snowblower this AM so just a few quick items

Egypt

Egypt Demonstration, 25 Jan. 2011

Another People’s Revolution is underway, inspired by what happened in Tunisia, but just like the one one in Iran. The major difference in the people rising up against the dictatorship in Iran & Egypt is that we give massive support to keep the Egyptian dictatorship in power and we basically Iran’s dictatorship is an enemy.

Sources on Egyptian revolution

Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen are all American backed dictatorships. We prattle on about freedom and democracy yet support dictatorships that do our bidding throughout the world while torturing, killing, and oppressing their people and freedom.

Stocks

Traders – I would keep stop’s tight. Both the Dow (breaking up through 12,000) and the S&P (breaking up through 1300) are encountering resistance in crossing these psychological thresholds.

Traders & Investors – Read Jeremy Grantham’s quarterly report from yesterday. It’s hard not to be bullish while quantitative easing puts a floor under stock prices. Long Term Outlook remains CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.

I will make some further remarks after snow blowing in comments section. If something unusual happens I’m sure Paul R would let you know.

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January 26, 2011

The Trap

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Jan. 25: President Obama addresses Congress during his State of the Union Address as Vice President Joe Biden and House Speaker John Boehner listen.

The Trap

Lead story in NYT on Obama’s state of the Union contains one very important word - JOBS

The Trap

Astute political assesment of Obama’s speech from the New Republic’s Ed Kilgore

And that’s the beauty of Obama’s address. He basically put together every modest, centrist, reasonable-sounding idea for public investment aimed at job creation and economic growth that anyone has ever uttered; and he did so at the exact moment that the GOP has abandoned the very concept of public investment altogether. He’s thrown into relief the fact that Republicans no longer seem interested in any government efforts to boost the economy, except where they offer an excuse to reduce the size and power of government.

Obama can close this trap by focusing on Jobs, jobs, jobs. Two significant reasons this works

  • American’s by over 4 to 1 see Jobs and the Economy as the #1 priority
  • Without tax income from jobs, we lack the revenue to to fix the deficit or any other problems.

A political victory that may lead to a “Sputnik” moment of  economic transformation.

_____________

.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.03% up
NASDQ +0.06% up
S&P 500 +0.03% up
Russell 2000 +0.09% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • We had a the bulls take charge into the close and an overall flat market in heavier volume
  • Rachel Granby on Obama State of Union and today’s market (Seeking Alpha)
  • Obviously, still endorsing the concept that the Fed [POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see Investors411 for past months).

____________

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar after going much higher  ended up falling a small -0.07%.  The two week dramatic fall of the dollar continues. For stocks this is = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]  MO fell slightly to -5.15. What may be a bearish sigh (a series of lower highs and lows) has started to develop on chart. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Wall Street publicly is catching up to what Investors411 has been telling you for many months. The Fed is manipulating stocks higher. The #1 factor behind the low volume rallies. It has been this way ever since quantitative easing  fist started a year and a half ago. There is 5 months more of QE 2 scheduled.

  • Mega Investor Jeremy Grantham calls it – Pavlov’s Dog Reading his quarterly newsletter is a must for any serious investor. Pavlov’s Dog is that newsletter.
  • Wall Street Journal’s Market Watch calls it Addicted to Crack

More from Grantham’s Quarterly newsleter – Investor411 has a very similar  assessment of the future See Positions section of blog -“Investors411 looks for a much better first 1/2 of 2011 than a second half especially in US stocks.”

From his Quarterly Outlook

  • the outperformance of everything risky”  on top of his looking forward list.(they have been underperforming for a while)
  • “But be aware that you are living on borrowed time as a bull; on our data, the market is worth about 910 on the S&P 500, substantially less than current levels, and most risky components are even more overpriced”
  • “The speed with which you should pull back from the market as it advances into dangerously overpriced territory this year is more of an art than a science, but by October 1 you should probably be thinking much more conservatively.”

What to watch for today

UUP -The dollar tracking ETF. Two+ week bearish trend continues as rally falls apart. Dollar down = stocks up.

Dow IndexDow stocks historically do about 1/2 what Small caps and techs do in a rally.  They have done better for for a month+.

AAPL –  Up a massive +3.28 two days ago. Confirmed rally with +1.17% rally yesterday. Very interesting that most of the smaller cap stocks in tech did NOT also have big gains. = Big cap stocks rule.


_________________

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • DDM - (2x Dow stocks)
  • REMX - (rare earth metals)(1/2 position)

Under consideration - Looking to add more on dip. (see comments section of blog for inter day timing)

DDM - (2x DOW) The trend to big cap stocks is apparent.

UWM (2X small cap stocks) Will buy ASAP, hopefully on dip.

UCO -(2x oil prices) All commodities, are under pressure from inflation worries in emerging markets. UCO broke support level in big way. Waiting for it to settle.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars.

FAS (3x financials) & UYG (ETF that does 2x financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions.  This sector is being manipulated higher by Fed. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Yes, this is another bubble building.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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January 25, 2011

Emperor of the World

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Emperor of the World

The last Fed Chair Alan Greenspan used to be thought of as the most powerful man in the world. Now our current Fed chair Ben Bernanke is looked at by many as having inherited the title. This is especially true because this Fed, who meets this week, is far more active in trying to solve the problems created by the “free market or deregulated” Greenspan ruled Fed.

Furious debate rages in almost every economic circle over what our Fed is doing and its impact on the world. Every government and their central bank is trying to manipulate their way out of the Great Recession without causing a Great Depression. Our’s is still the biggest economy in the world so Bernanke has the most power.

The problem facing Bernanke is having NO regulations does not work in economics. (Most rational people know this, greed based ideologues would disagree) Even the high priest of deregulation Alan Greenspan has admitted this.

If there are no cops on the street, and no basic rules to follow then greed runs wild.  You develop casino capitalism where no risk is too great, if government/taxpayers bail you out.

On the other hand (the last 4 words are the four most used words by many non ideological  economist) if you over regulate economics you can negatively impact growth. Will our Fed and other entities worldwide be able to fix the damage with just the right amount of regulations and execute a soft economic landing?

Bernanke and the FED are the most powerful economic group in the world. Investors411 has tried to give you a front row seat in the how the Fed impacts everything from stocks to world wide inflation to commodity prices to a falling dollar and even more.

So far there has been NO Great Depression, and the Bernanke Fed deserves credit for that, but will the Fed be able to engineer  a soft landing? What happens when the training wheels come off?


_____________

.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.92% down
NASDQ -1.04% down
S&P 500 +0.58% down
Russell 2000 +0.79% -

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.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Were Back – The old pattern of up days on lower volume – Basically as Investors 411 has repeated for many many moons, its the Fed liquidity (quantitate easing) providing the stimulus and investors are staying home  (out of selling) and enjoying the ride.
  • Repeat from yesterday.- Monday’s have historically been the best day of the week as earnings season continues.
  • Repeat from yesterday – We have what may be a shift of leadership into major US companies and the too big to fail financials that enjoy government and Fed support.
  • If yesterday was a rally day (markets up  about 1% or greater) then today is the confirmation day. Do stocks hold onto most of the previous day’s gains. If so rally confirmed and bulls are happy.
  • Obviously, still endorsing the concept that the Fed’s POMO [schedule] is and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see Investors411 for past months).
  • Worldwide Inflation (not USA) is the clear and present danger. Problem in #2 emerging market India
  • Appropriate piece via Seeking Alpha from The Inflation Trader
  • Obama’s State of the Union is the big political news today and may contain something to drive markets higher.

____________

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar after going much higher and lower ended up falling a small -0.27%.  The two week dramatic fall of the dollar continues. For stocks this is = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]  MO fell to -7.39. What may be a bearish sigh (a series of lower highs and lows) has started to develop on chart. = Neutral

_________________

Reading The Tea Leaves

From yesterday – The dollar is falling like a stone and that’s good for American exporting companies. There are still growing worldwide inflation fears in part brought on by our Fed’s quantitive easing. (see Friday’s Investors411)

“Don’t fight the Fed” is an old Wall Street axiom. The falling dollar and the special “gifts” to shadow financials are the results pushing stocks higher.

The raising of interest rates in India may take a bite out of stocks today.

What to watch today

UUP -The dollar tracking ETF. Perhaps a reversal today, but clear two week bearish trend. This is good for stocks. However hard to see US stocks take a big hit while dollar is falling.

Dow Index – Dow stocks historically do about 1/2 what Small caps and techs do in a rally.  They have done better for for a month+. Dow at new 2 year+ high.

AAPL - Strong day yesterday. The general for tech stocks bounced off its 50 DMA and for now has issued an all clear signal. Up a massive 3.28%. Very interesting that most of the smaller cap stocks in tech did NOT also have big gains. = Big cap stocks rule

_________________

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • DDM - (2x Dow stocks) Bought at 57.40. Will place 5% trailing stop on this position today.
  • REMX - (rare earth metals)(1/2 position) Gained 1.58% yesterday will place another 3% trailing stop on this ETF today.

Under consideration -

DDM - (2x DOW) The trend to big cap stocks is apparent. A buy ,but a bit overbought right now

UCO -(2x oil prices) All commodities, are under pressure from inflation worries in emerging markets. UCO broke support level in big way. Waiting for it to settle.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars.

FAS (3x financials) & UYG (ETF that does 2x financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions.  This sector is being manipulated higher by Fed. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Yes, this is another bubble building.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

The Positions, Strategy and Overview sections of the blog are being revised. The changes should be finished over weekend. After this is done if time allows we’ll try a YSL #4

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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January 24, 2011

Alternatives to Obama

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

American Workers/Taxpayers

Inequality and the Financial Crisis

MIT economic Professor Daron Acemoglu, has a fabulous worksheet on the causes of the financial meltdown and long term structural problems in the USA.

American media ignores people like Dr. Acemoglu, and instead almost always uses some paid economist from and industry and/or right wing backed think tank that is in business because to serve their backers.

Thoughts on Inequity and the Financial Crisis excerpts below from his science based analysis.

“who rules today… The rich elite like in the Gilded Age….

In the aftermath, consistent with the alternative hypothesis, many of the key financial players were bailed out, but low income house owners were not and there has been powerful political resistance to extension of unemployment benefits.”


Two Alternative’s to Obama’s

State of the Union.

Paul Krugman in NYT excerpts

Consider: A corporate leader who increases profits by slashing his work force is thought to be successful…Who, exactly, considers this economic success?…

[GE] with fewer than half its workers based in the United States and less than half its revenues coming from U.S. operations, G.E.’s fortunes have very little to do with U.S. prosperity….

The financial crisis of 2008 was a teachable moment, an object lesson in what can go wrong if you trust a market economy to regulate itself. Nor should we forget that highly regulated economies, like Germany, did a much better job than we did at sustaining employment after the crisis hit.”

Robert Reich in Common Dreams excerpts

He [Obama] should point out that the U.S. economy is now twice as large as it was in 1980 but the real median wage has barely budged…

In the late 1970s, the richest 1 percent of Americans got about 9 percent of total income. By the start of the Great Recession they received more than 23 percent. Wealth is even more concentrated….

Many thanks ti Jim J in the comments section of Friday’s blog (scroll down to comments) for bring us all stats on GE, Paul R for mentioning a Robert Reich editorial and JS for his reply.

The major issue we have to fix the problem of Jobs, Jobs, Jobs is that Globalized American companies like GE  no longer need American Labor and even more critical now they no longer need the American consumer to grow.

This is your wake up and smell the coffee moment. GE and a host of other so called “American” corporate giants are no longer American. Even though these companies originate in the USA the use of the word “American” is little more than a propaganda tool.

They are globalized corporate giants who will suck what they can from Americans (any anywhere else) for the bottom line of profits. Like it or not that’s the system.  History has show this to be true in the past. This globalization of corporate so called “America” companies is a trend that is RAPIDLY INCREASING.

Like they say “no worries its just business.”

_____________

.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.41% up
NASDQ -0.55% down
S&P 500 +0.24% up
Russell 2000 -0.63% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Technology, small caps,  high Beta (fast growing), emerging markets & commodities all took it on the chin yesterday and last week. A significant correction underway
  • Tech leaders AAPL & AMZN both lost 6% last week.
  • Monday’s have historically been the best day of the week as earnings season continues.
  • We have what may be a shift of leadership into major US companies and the too big to fail financials that enjoy government and Fed support.
  • Here’s how the week sets up from Seeking Alpha’s John Nyaradi
  • Still endorsing the concept that the Fed’s POMO [schedule] is and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see Investors411 for past months).
  • The Fed’s POMO (QE 2) is also a major factor in driving inflation in emerging markets (see Friday’s Investors411)
  • From Friday - Key factor of dayInflation fears
  • Obama’s State of the Union is the big political news of the week. (Tuesday)

____________

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a small +0.24%.]  The two week dramatic fall of the dollar continued significantly Friday – Dollar down -0.71%. For stocks this is = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]  MO rose slightly to -29.20. We are approaching -60 and a buy signal. Outlook (overall overbought/oversold forecast tool for stocks) still = Neutral

_________________

Reading The Tea Leaves

The dollar is falling like a stone and that’s good for American exporting companies. There are still growing inflation fears in part brought on by our Fed’s quantitive easing. (see Friday’s Investors411)

“Don’t fight the Fed” is an old Wall Street axiom. The falling dollar and the special “gifts” shadow financials (latest example Friday GE earnings, stock up +7%)

Again many major analysts (far more renowned and knowledgeable than me) from Nyaradi (today) to a real big name DeMark last week are calling for a much more significant correction.

The falling dollar, the strength in major exporters, and the Fed ( behind these factors & pumping up financials) will keep correction minor. So if the MO dips down some more close to -60 I’ll be nibbling.


What to watch today

Dow Index - From Friday - Almost all sectors that may be negatively impacted from Emerging market inflation – high growth stocks, commodities, China, gold – have faltered this week. The big holdout is this minor meltdown are the giant Dow companies.

AAPL - breaking below its 50 Day Moving Average would be trouble. It fell -1.79% Friday & rising 50DMA is a bit over 1% lower. Look for some upside strength at its 50 DMA/support level. So the bounce or non bounce off the 50 DMA is the cutting edge today and for the week

_________________

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM - (2x small cap stocks) Sold last 1/2 at 44.50 for +6% gain
  • REMX - (rare earth metals) Did not sell last 1/2, but will place another 2% trailing stop on this ETF today. (already almost -2% loss on last 1/2)

Under consideration -

DDM - (2x DOW) The trend to big cap stocks is apparent. A buy ,but a bit overbought right now

UCO -(2x oil prices) All commodities, are under pressure from inflation worries in emerging markets. Sitting on 50 DMA, More cold and snow for East cost should create a bounce.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars.

FAS (3x financials) & UYG (ETF that does 2x financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions.  This sector is being manipulated higher by Fed. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Yes, this is another bubble building.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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January 21, 2011

Body Blow Inflation

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

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Inflation

It’s no secret, almost every country out there is seeking some advantage to manipulate their way out of the economic “Great Recession” or keep their economy growing at a rapid rate (emerging market countries)

Part of what our Fed does with its quantitative easing puts pressure on China and other emerging market countries that results in inflation abroad. There are inflation fears in USA, but it is emerging markets are really feeling the brunt of INFLATION as they have recovered far faster than either the USA or Europe.

Three major articles on this today. It is a problem for all emerging market countries.

Emerging Markets have fallen for about a week on inflation fears. This has also impacted commodities.

Bottom line for Investors – Not only are we overbought (Long term up 7 weeks in a row) but there is a new fundamental – fear of inflation that could take a bite out of emerging markets and commodity prices. Our Fed is walking a tight rope. So far skillfully. But the wind is picking up.

Our turn will come, but the clear and present danger in the USA remains Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.

_____________

.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.02% up
NASDQ -0.77% up
S&P 500 -0.13% up
Russell 2000 -1.12% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • We had what many stock pros call a “confirmation day” The day after 3 of the 4 major indexes took a hit, they DECLINED further = confirmation. More often than not this spells trouble, especially after reaching a top.
  • One of the primer analyst who technically called the the S&P top in 2007 (It plunged 57% starting in Oct. 2007) Tom DeMark, has made  another bearish call that market will plunge about 11% stating in a week or two.
  • In opposition to all this is the FED’s POMO. Notice that directly after the Fed purchased bonds from its 21 big banks at 10:15AM EST to 11.00 AM the US markets started to rally from inter day lows and moved higher.  Strong correlation between this liquidity coming into markets and stocks moving higher since it began in 2009.
  • This is an Options expiration day – third Friday of the month. This sometimes makes for unusual activity and increased volume. However since we have had a short term reversal of trend some of the calls will not get made and volume will suffer. Translation expiration day will probably not have big impact. Other forces might.
  • Key factor of day – Inflation fears

____________

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a small +0.24%. Dollar had a pretty wild day (both up and down). Lot of uncertainty.  Outlook for stocks = Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]  MO fell to -33.82. Bullish pattern brokenbears rule in short term, but we are approaching -60 and a buy signal. Outlook overall for stocks = Neutral

_________________

Reading The Tea Leaves

Too many fundamental worries out there. Therefore, going to wait for better conditions or a lower MO to buy.

Will inflation fears trump the Fed’s money dumping and hurt US equities? It has this week. Most say we are long overdo for a correction and DeMark’s call (see above) is significant. Many US companies  that sell to emerging markets could and have been a monentum play to the upside could end up the same way cloud computing did, (See FFIV yesterday)

It’s an escalator going up, but a elevator going down & right now for US equities we have the Fed manipulating to ease the pain.

What to watch today

Dow Index – Almost all sectors that may be negatively impacted from Emerging market inflation – high growth stocks, commodities, China, gold – have faltered this week. The big holdout is this minor meltdown are the giant Dow companies.

AAPL – breaking below its 50 Day Moving Average would be trouble. It fell 1.82% yesterday & rising 50DMA is about 3% lower

_________________

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM - (2x small cap stocks) A 1/2 position. Setting 2% trailing stop today. Considering selling into a rally.
  • REMX - (rare earth metals) Sold 1/2 at 23.23 for a 1+% loss. Setting 2% trailing stop loss today

Look for short term a rebound today.

Under consideration – Not touching anything new

UCO -(2x oil prices) All commodities, including gold are under pressure from inflation worries in emerging markets.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars.

UYG (ETF that does 2x Dow financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions.  This sector is being manipulated higher by Fed. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Yes, this is another bubble building.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)

_________________

How to look up comments from the last two weeks.

Click on SUBSCRIBE TO RSS (top right of blog) You will see a list with title and short summary of the last two weeks of blogs. Click on title and up will come that day’s blog and the comments associated with it. Scroll down to comments

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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January 20, 2011

TED & Naomi Klein

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Naomi Klein at TED

TED is a non profit that presents ideas worth spreading. Investors411 has reference TED many times. One of the latest speakers is Naomi Klein – Her 20 minute presentation is on how the USA is Addicted to Risk.”

We all know how shadow financials addiction to risk turned out – The 2008 housing/jobs/stock/economic meltdown into the “Great Recession.”  They took the risk and we paid the price or socialized the loss.

TED is the best lecture series out there. There are many diverse and enlightening topics. One hundred times better than anything on the tube. I strongly urge you check it out. Perhaps Naomi Klein is not your cup of tea. You will find others who are. Surf at your leisure on topics from business to the stars.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.11% flat
NASDQ -1.46% up
S&P 500 -1.01% down
Russell 2000 -2.56% -

_____________

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • 3 of the 4 major stock indexes had their biggest correction in two months yesterday. Today is a “confirmation” of the breakdown day (see Tea Leaves section below)
  • Overall volume is is slightly higher because of earnings season – So the Fed’s injection of liquidity into the market may have problems if bulls panic. The Fed can’t overcome panicked investors. But when panic subsides its back to normal.
  • Stockcharts.com has an excellent overview of the markets page in graph form. It’s FREE and where I get most of my data. It lists Indexes, Sectors, Countries, Industries, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, and even some Bearish/Bullish indicators all on one easy to read page.
  • Markets around the world have followed US lead and closed or are lower.

____________

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell another -0.41%. We . Support broke two days and yesterday’s fall confirms the breakdown. Outlook for stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]  MO fell to -21.49. This broke the char pattern of a series of higher lows and is bearish in the short term. When we get closer to -60 the outlook will reverse to bullish. Outlook overall for stocks = Bearish

_________________

Reading The Tea Leaves

Well, it may be finally happening. I’ve told you that most of the analysts I follow were predicting a correction for about a month. Yesterday was the first serious retreat for 3 of the 4 major indexes in almost two months. Today is “confirmation” day. If stocks can regain over 1/2 of yesterday’s losses the bull will be seen as regaining control.

The MO has broken its chart pattern and that’s bearish

Investors run in herds. Some lightning has struck and the herd turned yesterday. The dollar’s drop, and the FED’s POMO program should keep this drop from being a disaster.

The general AAPL (& IBM) is still holding up, but all around high beta (Stocks, in this case, that have had volatile moves higher) are falling like flies.

Major concern - Any long positions you have.  After a correction –  If /when the MO hits -60 Investors411 again will start to BUY. But for now tighten stops.

What to watch today

AAPL – This is the tech leader. Down only -0.53% yesterday. The rest of technology crumbled around it yesterday. But if the big dog starts to crumble, we’re in for more than a minor correction.

_________________

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM - (2x small cap stocks) 1/2 of UWM was sold at 43.57 yesterday for a +6% gain. Have a 4% trailing stop from late yesterday on the remainder, but may sell earlier
  • REMX - (rare earth metals) Placed 5% trailing stop on 1/2 the position. Another trailing stop/loss at 7% below purchase price for last 1/2 two days ago. Since recent high was 24.30 and REMX closed at 23.58 I could get closed out of this position soon.

One Mantra of Investors411

No one ever went broke taking profits.

Under consideration

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Challenged its resistance/break out level but failed. Would buy any pullback close to 12.0

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars.

UYG (ETF that does 2x Dow financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions.  This sector is being manipulated higher by Fed. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Yes, this is another bubble building. Warning - over extended right now. We have the start of a correction/dip.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) Will buy back into this 2x gold ETF on dip.  This is a tough buy right now because the down days have big volume and up days small volume.

_________________


Thanks to Monitor, JS, The Critic & Paul for all the warnings on Your Stock List #3.

Investors411 has closed down each of its previous YSL’s BRFORE earnings reports.

The results of YSL#3 Before Earning Reports were YSL #3 up 12.07% vs S&P 500 up 8.95%  from 11/22

As I concluded about YSL#3 in yesterday’s warning about holding high risk stocks in YSL #3 through earnings (see comments section of blog) “No one ever went broke taking profits.” (For anyone not following the Comments Section see remarks directly below or go to HELP/EDITOR section at top of blog)

While this result is +22% better than the S&P 500 It’s not nearly as good as YSL #1 & #2 . (You can view the results of YSL #1 &#2 at the bottom of  in the “under construction” POSITION section of blog – Hope to finish construction by weekend)

These warning proved prescient. Monitor List of when YSL#3 stocks report their earnings can be found on Investors411 – 1/13 post “The new Global Elite.” use directions below.

FFIV was the first stock to report (after the bell last night) on the list and while it was an escalator going up it looks to be an elevator going down. See Paul’s comments. We will have to wait to see how the rest of the companies do. Generally earning season closes (for me) the weekend after CSCO announces its report.

Bottom Line we will have a YSL #3 Before Earnings and After Earnings. We’ll see which is better. But from last night’s start YSL#3 After Earnings will probably under perform.

_________________

How to look up comments from the last two weeks.

Click on SUBSCRIBE TO RSS (top right of blog) You will see a list with title and short summary of the last two weeks of blogs. Click on title and up will come that day’s blog and the comments associated with it. Scroll down to comments

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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January 19, 2011

Blame the victims

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Blame the Victims

Enrich the Perpetrators

Janet Tavakoli has an excellent editorial in the Huffington Post Some quotes -

“Yet, as Arianna Huffington points out in her latest book, banks continue to find ways to get Americans to subsidize problems that the banks themselves were chiefly responsible for creating. Consumers struggle to keep up with payments as the unemployment rate rises along with food and energy prices, and loan resets kick in:

…When they don’t, banks, trying to offset losses in other areas, turn around, hike interest rates, and impose all manner of fees and penalties–all of which makes it less likely consumers will be able to pay off mounting debts.”

The shadow financial institutions have in NO way been held accountable for the trillions in damage they created by America’s political and legal structure. They blame the victims and are still enriching themselves while YOU sufer and will suffer more consequences (example – the inflation that will follow).

The only way to resolve this problem is to “Break the choke hold That special interest money has on our politicians.”

.

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Bomb found on MLK Parade Route

Just like the Arizona shooting this is plane and simple terrorism fueled by the growing violence of the far right in America.  This time the FBI is calling it “domestic terrorism”

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YOUR Comments

Yankee Bob has another editorial and many of you commented – Too see editorial link here and scroll down

____________

.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

NoteOverslept this AM & have NOT had time to check lots of sources

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.43% flat
NASDQ +0.38% down
S&P 500 +0.14% up
Russell 2000 +0.00% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Yesterday tech general AAPL rallied through out the day to close down -2.25%. This is bullish news (see yesterday’s blog & below) Apple had blowout earnings after the bell and looks to be up in Pre market trading.
  • The only short term danger here is in major US indexes becoming too oversold. We keep inching higher as the Fed money flows (see past updates on POMO)

.

____________

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] A moderate rally Friday of  -0.47%. We were close to support levels or bottom of an almost 2 month long consolidation range Friday. Support broke yesterday.  So outlook for stocks. Today will act as confirmation of break down through support. = Neutral/Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Sorry No data available for MO today, – Don’t know why. but would imagine its at over +20.  Pattern of higher highs and higher lows continues.  Outlook overall for stocks = Neutral

NB - If “Neutral” (or any word) is bolded and ”bullish” is not It gives more weight to the Neutral.

_________________

Reading The Tea Leaves

What to watch today

AAPL – Tech market leader is somewhat over bought. – From yesterday – Expect a big hit early on the Steve Jobs news. If Apple does not loose 4% today = It’s one strong bull market.”

Bottom Line - Hope lots of you followed  suggestion to BUY AAPL on the dip yesterday (See yesterday’s blog’s Bottom Line section) I’d take profits (now above 5%) or sell 1/2 today and put 5% trailing stop on the rest.

_________________

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM - (2x small cap stocks) UWM still outperforming other US indexes. – Add too on dip. Investors has owned multiple positions in UWM that is up over +20% since originally added on 11/22
  • REMX - (rare earth metals) Placed 5% trailing stop on 1/2 the position. Another stop/loss at 7% below purchase price.

Under consideration (Note below section was written Friday)

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Challenged its resistance/break out level but failed. Would buy any pullback close to 12.1

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars. Is back moving in right direction.

EWZ (Brazil) & LBJ ( 3x Latin America – majority Brazil) Obviously the later is more risky because its leveraged 3X. Both are lagging US stocksand will be dropped from list for now.

UYG (ETF that does 2x Dow financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions.  This sector is being manipulated higher by Fed. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Yes this is another bubble building. Warning – over extended right now, but doesn’t seem to matter. Buy the dip

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) Will buy back into this 2x gold ETF on dip.  This is a tough buy right now because the down days have big volume and up days small volume.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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