Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
February 28, 2011

To My Fellow Cows

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Economic Bottom Line

Imagine if every top narcotics official had a $2,000,000 a year job waiting for them with the drug cartels after they retired. What would happen?

(paraphrasing Matt Taibbi on shadow finance and politics in USA)

That’s essentially what we have in the USA. Not in narcotics, but in finance/business. Not only is the money that oligarchs provide financing political campaigns dominated by business, it also dominates the retirement and appointments of top  ranking elected and appointed officials who are supposed to regulate Wall Street.

Over the weekend NYT’s Joe Nocera published yet another list of Wall Street crooks who are too in bed with our political leaders and the regulatory agencies to even be made to say they are sorry for what happened. (thanks to Popeye for referencing this in comments section of blog)

Charles Ferguson, whose film Inside Job last night won the Oscar for best documentary again stated the obvious – the economic crisis is a multi trillion dollar colossal crime perpetrated on the working-class masses by a greedy few – yet no one goes to jail.

It may infect more Republicans than Democrats, but the far more important point is that self serving corruption dominates BOTH political parties.

In 2008 a great financial and economic problem became apparent. Trillion of dollars has been lost and additional trillions thrown at this problem, yet  unlike other financial meltdowns, no one has been held accountable. Virtually nothing has been done to structurally change or investigate the root cause.

Our politicians can not get at the root cause because they would have to admit corruption and put the powerful status quo at risk of loosing their power. The very power that insures the politician’s election and future wealth.

Jeffry Sachs, of Columbia University, realizes that long term sustainable development is no longer possible in the USA. Both parties are financed by the  big money of the wealthy elite whose lies are shouted at us so thick and fast that we can only hear the drumbeat of propaganda and slogans.

So the malaise of a temporary recovery in the selected sectors of the casino capitalism that befit the wealthy elite continues as different economic bubbles continue to build.

If your one of the financial masters of the universe whose income tops $2 million a year, the rest of us in a globalized world are little more than cows that eat grain, providing milk and eventually get slaughtered. Chinese cows, Indian cows, American cows – what’s the difference? Sometimes the young cows wake up – like in Egypt . They may not win, but at least they had the guts to try.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.51% down
NASDQ +1.58% down
S&P 500 +1.06% down
Russell 2000 +2.21% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble.

  • Once again stocks rallied in below average volume. – Same old Fed manipulated stock bubble building reasserting itself as the dominant trading pattern.
  • Libya did manage to disrupt last week. Until the oil fields start burning its impact on stocks should diminish.

Below is a repeat from past Investors411. It will be placed in the strategy section of blog until it is not longer relevant.

  • Mantra #1 - till it no longer works - still endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. Another term for this is quantitative easing or QE #2.
  • Mantra #2 - 50% to 70% of the volume on US stock exchange is soaked up by High Frequency Trades chasing imbalances in trades. This means 30% to 50% of volume is made up or real or valuation investors.
  • You can NOT compare, use many technical tools, or historic data to evaluate this market because it is being manipulated higher by our Fed or central bank and the majority of volume is soaked up by HFT’s chancing imbalances.
  • Two significant reasons allow the Fed to keep the liquidity tsunami flowing - Housing prices are hurting & Unemployment figures are high.

________________

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose  Friday +0.29%.  Dollar has bounced off a short term support level around $77.  Let’s see if it holds today.  If it falls bulls get the momentum back, but until then= Neutral
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Rose to to +3.17. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. Note: the +30 barrier has become a very strong resistance point. Stocks outlook = Neutral

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Buy the Dip – Same plate that was served over a week ago is still there.

Reading The Tea Leaves

The same Old Song - But we obviously have a new fundamental factor – revolutions in oil rich dictatorships - This could alter everything. Some truly bizarre statistics that have me very concerned.

  • In times of crisis everyone usually piles into the dollar – They haven’t
  • The Saudi’s promised to make up for the lack of Libya’s supply problem. But you can’t replace “sweet” crude with gunky oil. Strange this is not impacting markets more.

Paul did a great job over last week and called the dip perfectly. As stated many times +/-30 has become the new short term support/resistance level for the MO (see above.)

What to watch today

USO - oil prices

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL – Bounced off its 50 DMA support level. As long as it hangs in above that everything OK

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Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)  Stopped out (had a 5% trailing stop on this) at 45.74 for 6+% profit . Total gain @6%
  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • RJA 1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)

Not settled in enough after vacation to make a call on anything except buying oil ETF on dips. Too much global volatility.

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Buy the dip. Why not its a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding.  Hopefully longer term holding. Stop set about 2% below rising 50 day moving average.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals or RJA (all agriculture)

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. Stop set at @ 2 % below rising 50 DMA.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!


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February 18, 2011

Stock Bubbles

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

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The Stock Bubble Bursting

Yesterday we went over the fact that the foundation of this stock bubble lies in our huge debt and the shadow banksters

—-

Since September Investors411 has been describing the impact of  the tsunami of liquidity our Central Bank has introduced and  the influence of High Frequency trading on the stock market. How this Bubble-icious Stock market is forming is listed below in brown in the Technical and Fundamental Analysis part of the blog.

As JS points out in the comments section of the blog – bubbles can build for quite some time. So what can kill this bubble ?  The events in Egypt barely dented it. The answer is good economic  news in housing and employment. Not phony news but real progress. This will mean that the FED will have to stop its quantitative easing.

The tsunami of liquidity means inflation down the road and  our Fed keeps building it higher every day. This makes future inflation more of a problem each day. Socks hate inflation.

Some food commodity prices have gone parabolically higher in the last few days and that’s an early warning signal. This is, in part, driven by the tsunami of liquidity around the world. Some food prices rising are probably not strong enough to cause a meltdown in stocks.   Rather this is a warning of what’s to come. (inflation)

Bottom LIne for those who hold stocks - You can ride this expanding bubble. Old Wall Street term. “Stocks can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

Perhaps the Fed is playing/manipulating this all perfectly. However, if history is any indication the pendulum always seems to swing too far in one direction.  We all need to stay awake because when bubbles burst the fall is fast and dramatic.

_____________

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.24% down
NASDQ +0.21% down
S&P 500 +0.31% down
Russell 2000 +0.68% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble.

  • Once again stocks rallied in below average volume.
  • Mantra #1till it no longer works - still endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. Another term for this is quantitative easing or QE #2.
  • Mantra #2 - 50% to 70% of the volume on US stock exchange is soaked up by High Frequency Trades chasing imbalances in trades. This means 30% to 50% of volume is made up or real or valuation investors.
  • You can NOT compare, use many technical tools, or historic data to evaluate this market because it is being manipulated higher by our Fed or central bank and the majority of volume is soaked up by HFT’s chancing imbalances.
  • Two significant reasons allow the Fed to keep the liquidity tsunami flowing Housing prices are hurting & Unemployment figures are high.

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell  yesterday  -0.29%. There has been the start of a  short three week bullish dollar,/bearish stocks pattern.  -However last two days were bearish for the dollar and bullish for stocks. Shorter term trend is therefore bearish, but longer term trend is bullish for dollar  = Neutral
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Rose to to +31.84. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. Note: the +30 barrier has become a very strong resistance point.  It fell yesterday.  Stocks outlook = Bearish/Neutral (see below)

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Buy the Dip

Reading The Tea Leaves

The same Old SongA manipulated US stock market is moving higher on stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing. Financials and stocks have received unbelievable support from our government and the Fed.

We have reached over + 30 on the MO and technically this should slow down any rally. However, we are building a manipulated stock bubble and that throws most of the technical rules out the window. So, be cautious moving forward. +60 is the usual overbought level that has worked well for a couple years. Link to chart above.

There are some early warning signs, but its not time for panic.

What to watch today

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL The tech general broke out to a new high and continues to trade above those levels.

___________________

Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already) Up about 10%
  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)  Up about 9%
  • DBC Up about 1 %. Sold all for +1% profit yesterday
  • RJA Up about 5%.  Sold 1/2 for +5% profit at 11.92

Commodities are being driven higher by inflation fears in emerging markets. The Fed’s POMO program/QE#2 is a/the major driver of this.

Considering an even higher leveraged ETF for small cap stocks TNA (see below)

Warning - some food commodities are going parabolic in big volume. Time to take profits and/or tighten stops in this sector (especially RJA).

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Wait till it consolidates lower  and returns to pre Egypt crisis levels or below.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Considering buying more on a dip today

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals or RJA (all agriculture)

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF. Up a huge +2.75% in big volume yesterday. See warning above.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks) Would add TNA on big dip

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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February 17, 2011

Why Wall Street Is Not in Jail

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,


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When Will The Stock Bubble Burst?

Here’s my read of the tea leaves on YOUR  most asked question

First, stocks crashed because our banksters ran an over leveraged casino capitalist banking system that caused a stock meltdown in 2008/early 2009.

It’s important to realize how little was done to fix this problem. In fact, unlike our last huge savings and loan’s crisis (circa 1980) when over 1000 banksters went to jail, NONE directly associated with this crisis went to jail (Bernie Madoff was indirectly related)

Instead the banksters got a huge TARP loan, the ability to borrow money at almost 0% interest,  quantitative easing and other perks from our government and the Fed bank. This package deal is in the trillions of dollars.

No jail time, a few weak rules, and a tsunami of fresh capital. The shadow bankster’s, and their politicians are that powerful.

So basically the same corruption continues to grow.

Matt Taibbi in the Rolling Stone has a must read piece on this – Why Isn’t Wall Street in Jail (Warning – Some appropriate graphic language in editorial, but he goes case and point through the whitewash)

Rolling Stone photo

Our shadow banksters along with a huge deficit is the foundation of the problem.

Stock Bubble – Tomorrow



KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.50% up
NASDQ +0.76% up
S&P 500 +0.63% up
Russell 2000 +1.02% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS -  Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding/manipulated stock bubble.

  • Bubbliciously, once again stocks rallied in below average volume. NASDQ was a bit above average.
  • Mantra #1 – till it no longer works - still endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. Another term for this is quantitative easing or QE #2.
  • Mantra #250% to 70% of the volume on US stock exchange is soaked up by High Frequency Trades chasing imbalances in trades. This means 30% to 50% of volume is made up or real or valuation investors.
  • You can NOT compare, use many technical tools, or historic data to evaluate this market because it is being manipulated higher by our Fed or central bank.
  • Two significant reasons allow the Fed to keep the liquidity tsunami flowing - Housing prices are hurting & Unemployment figures are high.
  • “Understanding Inflation and Why Little is Good for Equities & The Economy” by Jeff Miller

=________________

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell  yesterday  -0.45%. There has been the start of a  short three week bullish dollar,/bearish stocks pattern.  - For stocks yesterday was bullish but the new developing pattern is a problem = Neutral/bearish
  • McClellan Index(MO [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to to +27.22. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level. Note: the +30 barrier has become a very strong resistance point. Stocks outlook = Bearish/Neutral

________________

openingimage

Bulls Remain Undaunted – Photo from Dave’s Daily

Reading The Tea Leaves

The same Old Song – A manipulated US stock market is moving higher on stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing. Financials and stocks have received unbelievable support from our government and the Fed.

The MO  has worked very well over the last few months as a short term forcasting tool. The MO has made +30 a significant barrier. (see chart) So if our manipulated stock market gets too far above +30 I’d start exercising more caution.

The dollar correlation has not been as exact, but has roughly worked. So unless we see the dollar dropping significantly, we should see stocks consolidate today.

Longer term-  As long as housing prices are hurting and unemployment is high the Fed should keep flooding liquidity into the market. This greatly benefits the big shadow banks that have not had to reform the casino capitalism that had and now continues to make them rich.  All of this is bubble-iciously good for stocks.

What to watch today

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL –  The tech general broke out to a new high and continues to trade above those levels.

___________________

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already) Up @ 10%
  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)  Up about 8%
  • DBC Up about 1 %.  Of the group of commodity ETF, I think RJA is the best. Therefore, going to sell this position in any small rally.
  • RJA Up about 2%.

Commodities are being driven higher by inflation fears in emerging markets. The Fed’s POMO program/QE#2 is a/the major driver of this.

Considering an even higher leveraged ETF for small cap stocks TNA (see below)

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Wait till it consolidates lower  and returns to pre Egypt crisis levels or below.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Considering buying more on a dip today

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals or RJA (all agriculture)

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks) Would add TNA on dip

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.“ (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!


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February 16, 2011

Democracy Blooms in Winter

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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The Winter Democracy Bloomed

The desire for self government, jobs and bread has exploded across the Arab world. In over a dozen countries people are demonstrating for basic human rights. Perhaps the biggest looser in all of this is Islamic fundamentalism and al Qaeda, because the cries of the people are not for religious fundamentalism, but for the common human dignity that we all share. Demonstrators are putting their lives on the line for democracy.

Libya and Iraq are the latest to have demonstrations. Today the NYT focuses on American reaction to Egypt, Bahrain and Iran’s demonstrations

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Shadow Banks Rule

The Chamber of Commerce and Shadow Banks were caught with their hands in the cookie jar,  just as a congressional committee was to convene to amend rules on “casino capitalism.”  How ironic it is that over a 1000 bankers were issued jail terms in the Savings and Loans crisis decades ago and NONE have over the 2008 meltdown.  That’s how powerful the shadows and their lobbyists have become.

Andrew Ross Sorkin from NYT story and MIT prof Simon Johnson. – Derivatives Industry Report Collapses.

But that’s just for openers – The Chamber of Commerce & their shadow allies are not beyond investigating the families of critics and printing false accusations. If you support Wikileaks or speak out against The Chamber, BAC or those who want to run capitalism in the shadows this could happen to you. Glenn Greenwald reports.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.34% down
NASDQ -0.46% up
S&P 500 -0.32% up
Russell 2000 -0.71% -

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Technicals Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Nothing’s change much in overall outlook since Monday. Short term because yesterday’s moderate loss the McClellan Index is at a  more buyable level of  +6.97. But not yet near levels bulls would like. The bubble-icious stock market continues.

So today were going to focus on technical analysis. I call technical analysis looking at the pretty pictures/charts of  a stock’s price and volume and being able to make a forecast of future directions from those charts.

Stockcharts.com, the best free site on technical analysis on the web has a school/tutorial that will help you learn more about it.

Technical analysis works best when the markets, the sector and then the individual stock are in alignment or moving in the same direction.  The sum is greater than the parts, but in most cases it the individual stocks that matters most.

So here’s a list compiled by Paul R who has oodles of experience in technical analysis and uses a powerful HSGI program to augment his technical analysis skills.

Below is Your Stock List #3 and Paul’s recommendations. Most importantly use this a a learning  tool it technical analysis. He published it in the comments section of the blog a day ago, so its a bit dated and I’m sure he wants you to read his mea culpa. You can look up each chart pattern by inserting appropriate ticker symbol at Stockcharts.com. (link above) - His comments in Green and technical analysis below.

“In no way am I recommending a buy or sell of any of these stocks. These comments are for education only. (Understand?)

BIDU – getting extended, a hold and not a buy at the moment.

NFLX – getting extended, a hold and not a buy at the moment.

BEXP – went through a buy the dip correction in late January. Broken out, buy if it dips.

JNPR – leader in it’s group, broken out from a strong base, extended now, buy if it dips.

SKWS
- Good chart, extended, buy the future dip.

KSU - Good chart, extended, buy the future dip.

DECK – Gone through a correction as has it’s group, buy the future dip.

PCLN - good chart, buy any dip

COH – Gone through a correction as has it’s group, buy the future dip

IMAX – basing, buy any dip if you want as long as if it’s above the 50.

SOHU – broken out, way too extended for my stomach. Not a good chart, it needs to tighten up.

IVN – basing, buy at any time at current chart position

ALV – basing along with it’s group at the moment. NOT buyable at the moment.

SAM – basing, sitting on the 50, buyable at any time

SPRD – Good chart, wee bit extended, wait until it touches the 17 dma again.

FFIV – NOT buyable at the moment, chart needs some serious work.

These observations are just that, observations. My observations are usually worthless. If you buy any of these dogs…blah blah blah. Did I mention these comments are for education only? Pay attention for crying out loud!”

An additional comment from Paul on how to Buy the Dip

Always watch the comments section for different ideas and comments on stocks, economics, trends and politics.


___________________

Positions

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • DBC
  • RJA.

_________________

Look for Paul R‘s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

_________________

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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February 14, 2011

Truth about Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Egypt Burning Series from Al Jazeera

Lessons from Revolutions

Iran, Tunisia and now the Egyptian revolutions have brought home some tough truths or lessons -

  • The Egyptian people are the epicenter of democracy and freedom for the world, NOT the USA.
  • The USA supports a gulag of dictatorships throughout the world because these dictators support our interests.
  • A vicious, brutal dictator is a vicious brutal dictator. The term “moderate” applied to our dictators is a lie. Mubarak killed far more than Ahmadinejad in his revolution.
  • These revolutions clearly were based in a desire for freedom, bread, jobs, and humanity NOT Islamic fundamentalism.
  • The US and other supporters of dictators fear mongering a false doctrine of incompatibility between Islam and Christianity  (Glenn Beck) We all share the common ground of humanity and respect.
  • There is a universal concept for human dignity and respect that transcends religious boundaries.
  • The G 20 nation leaders and other dictators showed only minor lip service to the Egyptian people until the outcome was apparent. Only the secular democracy in arab Turkey and al Jazeera called the people of Egypt “their brothers.”
  • The fear mongering used to overshadow  efforts for peace will NOT stop in the USA, because it benefits politicians and a massive military industrial complex.

I love my country and love the fact that I can still speak out against what it does wrong. However-

We have an American foreign policy that is riddled with hypocrisy and its way past time we break the chains of fear and start to think openly and intelligently about building democracy and hope for more than a privileged few.

__________________

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.36% down
NASDQ +0.68% down
S&P 500 +0.55% down
Russell 2000 +1.16% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS – The New Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding stock bubble.

  • Bubbliciously, once again stocks rallied as volume fell
  • Mantra till it no longer works still endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. .
  • Mantra #2 - 50% to 70% of the volume on US stock exchange is soaked up by High Frequency Trades ‘s chasing imbalances in trades. This means 30% to 50% of volume is made up or real or valuation investors.
  • WSJ has come up with a problem for stocksPrices for commodities are rising faster than stock profits
  • Two significant reasons allow the Fed to keep the liquidity tsunami flowing – Housing prices are hurting & Unemployment figures are high.
  • NYT on this week’s outlook. Emerging markets (in a deep correction – see past Investors411)are rebounding

________________

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose  yesterday  +0.27%.  Two day rally in dollar is bearish for stocks. Today will act as a conformation the doll breakout last week to a short term high.= Neutral/bearish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell to to +28.50. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level.  Stocks outlook = Bearish/Neutral

________________

Helicopter Ben Bernanke - Dishing out a Tsunami of liquidity to US economy

Reading The Tea Leaves

Same mantra - A manipulated US stock market is moving higher on stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing. Financials and stocks have received unbelievable support from our government and the Fed to pay off their over leveraged debt.

Our short term forecasting tolls are turning bearish. They’re almost in the red/bearish territory. Will this be enough to sink the Fed tsunami of liquidity from driving stocks higher?

Monday’s are usually great for equities, but a consolidation or pull back would be more than healthy for this market.  Let’s not have the bubble burst too soon. However, the rebound in oversold emerging markets may be a leading factor this week.

Longer term-  As long as housing prices are hurting and unemployment is high the Fed should keep flooding liquidity into the market. This greatly benefits the big shadow banks that have not had to reform the casino capitalism that had and now continues to make them rich.  All of this is bubble-iciously good for stocks.

What to watch today

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL –  The tech general broke out to a new high and continues to trade above those levels. Volume was poor for a breakout, but  as long as the market’s Fed manipulation is dominant the rally will continue.

___________________

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already) .
  • DBC
  • RJA

RJA is up 4%, so considering taking profits soon.

Commodities are being driven higher by inflation fears in emerging markets. The Fed’s POMO program/QE#2 is a/the major driver of this.

UCO -(2x oil prices)  Wait till it consolidates lower  and returns to pre Egypt crisis levels or below.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Considering buying more on a dip today

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals or RJA (all agriculture)

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks)

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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February 11, 2011

The Fight For Freedom

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

Egypt

Day 18

Peaceful demonstrations have spread to other areas of Cairo and Egypt. Al Jazeera continues to be the best source on the Pro democracy REVOLUTION in Egypt.

The people in the street realize the power they have in Egypt and it is indeed a power that can change the world.  As many have pointed out, (see comments section of blog) Mubarak’s narcissistic address to the nation did not play well with the pro democracy demonstrators.

So many peacefull protestors have given so much blood in the name of democracy in Egypt that it’s hard not to be transfixed by this transformative moment in the history of the world. So today’s blog today is abbreviated.  I’m watching Al Jazeera and other outlets along with many of you.

Back on Monday with hopefully a victory for democracy and a better world. Keep an eye on the comments section for any changes in both the Egyptian revolution and stocks

LONG LIVE DEMOCRACY AND FREEDOM!

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

Same Positions and outlook as yesterday. Link here

  • Monday has usually a good day for stocks over the last few months. So there may be some upside at the end of Friday.
  • UUP – the tracking ETF for the dollar is perhaps the best forecast tool for daily market movement.
  • The worries that are most pressing at this time- Emerging Market Inflation, European Debt & keeping Suez canal open.
  • The Fed’s liquidity tsunami still rules the US stock market.

___________________

Positions

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • DBC
  • RJA.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

_________________

Your Stock List #4 is under construction

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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February 10, 2011

The Saudi’s Holding Hands

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Bush/Obama holding hands with world’s richest totalitarian

Totalitarianism

Egypt - Day 16

Latest from Egypt

There are a whole string of mostly American back dictators backing the inhumane Mubarak. Remember Saudi Arabia where most of the 911 hijackers come from?

This oil rich totalitarian regime along with our American media and governments collaborate to keep what happens in their totalitarian regime from YOU. Not Investors411. Let’s present the reality of Mubarak’s biggest backer and Bush/Obama’s biggest hand holders -

How the Saudi’s treat

  • Jews – They send out text books across the world depicting Jew’s as monkey’s and pigs.
  • Journalists - For criticizing an electric company a journalist was given 50 lashes in front of the company and put in jail for 6 months.
  • Women – For going unaccompanied with a man to a building a women was given 300 lashes and a one year jail term

The above facts are from Human Right’s Watch founder Robert Bernstein video [source - Bloomberg's Taking Stock show with Henry Pimm - Paul's favorite financial network]

We sell $60 billion worth of weapons to the Saudi’s from our military industrial complex yet almost No Americans have ever heard of Cyber Dissidents.org who fight for freedom and justice in a gulag of dictatorships.


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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.06% up
NASDQ -0.29% up
S&P 500 -0.28% up
Russell 2000 -0.54% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Flat to moderate declines in weak volume.
  • Short term over bought US indexes took an out of breath break yesterday.
  • Mantra till it no longer worksstill endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [schedule] is and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. .
  • Mantra #250% to 70% of the volume on US stock exchange is soaked up by High Frequency Trades ‘s chasing imbalances in trades. This means 30% to 50% of volume is made up or real or valuation investors.
  • Major fundamental causes for Wall Street concern at the moment – Inflation in emerging markets, European debt, will the Suez canal stay open.
  • Another Bearish forecast – “Yield Curve” is steepest ever – difference between rates of 2 (so low) & 10 (rising, but down 2.23% yesterday)year treasury bonds.

________________

.

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell  yesterday  -0.46%. Looks like dollar bears may be back and for stocks that’s = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell to to +10.38. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 30 as an overbought/oversold level.  Stocks outlook = Neutral

________________

Reading The Tea Leaves

Same mantraA manipulated US stock market is moving higher on stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing. Financials and stocks have received unbelievable support from our government and the Fed to pay off their over leveraged debt.

Photo - Helicopter Ben Bernanke - Dishing out a Tsunami of liquidity to US economy

Major emerging markets are in a meltdownA correction of 5% to 10% has turned into a 10% to 20+% meltdown. Inflation is the enemy. China, Brazil and India all had about a 2% drop yesterday.

From yesterday - Gold, and commodities may work as a hedge on inflation, but when it comes to the USA,  going short equities provides much more protection.

Falling dollarThe other major factor keeping US stocks in rally mode is the falling dollar.

Bottom Line

  • Short termtoo many up days in a row. Minor correction due
  • Longer termFed liquidity tsunami is having a negative impact on the rest of the world, but keeping US afloat. Problem s what happens when the liquidity dries up? But when is uncertain (QE #2 goes to June) and if economic news is bad will there be a QE#3.

What to watch today

UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar)  See $USD above for more. Dollar may be turning back down. From yesterday -When after a short rally a stock/sector index opens and closes at same price it often indicates a reversal. We’ve had a significant reversal down. Today will confirm/or not, that reversal

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL –  The tech general broke out to a new high in moderately higher volume. Up 4 days in a row.

___________________

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already)
  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already) Took a big hit yesterday.
  • DBC
  • RJA

UCO -(2x oil prices)  On dips. Wait till it consolidates lower  and returns to pre Egypt crisis levels or below.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Considering buying more on a dip.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals.

*RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An  ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) – Have set stop/loss for last 1/2 at 40.02 -the price it was bought for.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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February 9, 2011

A Revolution Matures

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update

Hosni Mubarak

EGYPT

Day 16- A Hero, A Reporter, and a Revolution Matures

Yesterday saw by most reports the biggest demonstration so far. Many thanks to Popeye for his updates throughout the day in the comments.  section of blog.

  • Wael Ghonim Has ‘Galvanized’ Protesters In Egypt Google’s managing director for Egypt was perhaps the leader of the networking on the internet that started the January 25th revolution. He energized the crowd yesterday after emerging from the dictator’s prison. Egypt has a hero. (so does Google)
  • Anderson Cooper- Mubarak has Blood on His Hands Like so many other reporters Cooper was assaulted by Mubarak’s thugs in Egypt. His short video accuratly depicts the dictator’s lies.
  • A Revolution Matures -The largest peceful crowd yet appeared in Liberation square in Cairo. Obviously the people have dug in like the dictator.

al Jazeera’s you tube link  continues to be the best resource. Huffington Post blog on Egypt

These revolutions for freedom and Democracy are a key turning point for the planet. When our kid, grandkids, or history asks a decade from now what did you do to help will the answer be “I was too busy or afraid to lift a finger.”

Dictators from around the world are standing up for Mubarak and putting pressure on Obama

and Obama seems to be caving in (NYT)


What will you do??????????????

.

_____________

.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.59% down
NASDQ +0.47% down
S&P 500 +0.42% down
Russell 2000 +0.66% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Yet ANOTHER move higher in WEAK volume. Repeat from yesterday - “50 to 70% of the volume is soaked up by HFT’s chasing imbalances in trades. This makes those investing because of valuations unbelievably small 30 to 50% of yesterday’s already weak volume yesterday.

  • With so few real or valuation Investors participating in this market the Fed POMO (quantitative easing) dominates. It is a Liquidity Tsunami

  • Mantra till it no longer worksstill endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see past Investors411 for many, many moons on this topic).

  • Investment article for today from Seeking Alpha’s Greg Fierman on – The Potential for Inflation

Bottom Line - Monday and Tuesday’s blog focused on some new trump cards that are dominating the US stock market – High Frequency Traders & Dark Pool Exchanges. Investors411 has focused for many months on how the FED’s POMO tsunami of liquidity is driving stocks higher.

____________

.

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar was flat again yesterday  -0.04%. The three day dollar rally should have hurt stocks, but stocks held onto gains = Bullish. All that had to happen was a flat dollar and like magic US stocks rallied for two days – Bullish Longer term trend three weeks of dramatic fall is  bearish for dollar, and for stocks. Overall for stocks still = Bullish

  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Rose to to +30.3. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 40 as an overbought/oversold level.  Stocks outlook = Neutral/bearish

_________________

Reading The Tea Leaves

Same mantraA manipulated US stock market is moving higher on stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing. Financials and stocks have received unbelievable support from our government and the Fed.

Basically, we’ve had a 7 day rally since Egypt erupted. About as far as these rallies usually go is 9 days before they say wait a minute we’re running out of oxygen and they pause or fall. Today is day # 8. The MO is moving close to our (perhaps temporarily) adjusted +40 as over bought. So we are due for a correction.

There will be a lot of investors waiting to buy this dip. So becuse of this and the Fed’s POMO, I don’t expect a big downside move.

Bulls are stampeding

Remember - This rally exists in a Fed Liquidity Tsunami, and well more than 1/2 the real investors (those that hope stocks will grow because companies will do better) have left the US stock market.

What to watch today

UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar)  See $USD above for more. This is the trump card right now.

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL –  The tech general broke out to a new high in moderately higher volume and confirmed the breakout yesterday

___________________

Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (leveraged ETF 2x small cap stocks, 1/2 position took 5+% profits already) Still moving up, but should consolidate soon
  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already) Still moving up –  7 day 10% rally should consolidate soon.
  • DBC. Expect/hope this to be a long term trade.
  • RJA Bought at open when it dipped for 11.40 Expect/hope this to be a long term trade.

From yesterday - Investors411 #1 new area of investments is commodities. For the past few weeks there has been a significant increase in volume in this area = Investors are coming off sidelines to buy.

Reminder Investors usually puts a 5% stop/loss order on all new ETF/ETN’s, & often sell 1/2 when over 5+% profits are realized. No one ever went broke taking profits.


UCO -(2x oil prices)  On dips. Wait till it consolidates lower  and returns to pre Egypt crisis levels or below.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Hopefully we’ll get a consolidation and/or dip to buy more soon.

DGP(ETF is 2X gold) . Bounced off what looks like a bottom. (MO is not a factor for gold). Considering today on a dip.

DBC(Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog Bought at 28.62 Stop loss at 5% below purchase price. DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be  DJP that is more agriculture and metals.

*RJA (Agriculture commodities Index) ETN

UWM (2x small cap stocks) – Have set stop/loss for last 1/2 at 40.02 -the price it was bought for.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Hopefully, this weekend, Paul and I can work out another stock list that again outperforms the S&P 500 from 10 YSL #3 stocks and the 26 YOU sent in

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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February 8, 2011

Wall Street Mafia

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

.

EGYPT

Day 15

The Brutality Index.

  • The scum bag dictator Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Ruler in Iran killed 72 people in the Green revolution according to the opposition (Wikipedia)
  • Our American supported scum bag dictator Mubarak in Egypt has killed 297 people already and the dust has not yet settled. (Amnesty International)

Our dictator Mubarak has already proven 4 times more violent vicious and brutal than the hated holocaust denier Ahmadinejad.

LINK to a graphic video of an innocent Egyptian protestor with his arms open being brutally murdered by Egyptian police. Your money funds these people.

al Jazeera’s you tube link  continues to be the bet resource. Anorak another site from UK with specific coverage

.

The Mafia & the Markets

Part 2

Here’s a list of realities of what you don’t know,how it impacts you and benefits the oligarchy of elite (mafia) wealthy individuals. It’s all legal and the list below is in reference to High Frequency Trading (HFT) and Dark Pool Exchanges (DPE). For more go to - LINK & LINK

Some obvious losses listed there, but here are more.

  • That favorable imbalance in price that HFT’s skim off the top would have gone to YOU or your mutual fund, your pension plan, or whichever way you choose to invest. They win 100% of the time. They skim you loose.
  • ONLY about 40% of the volume in stock trades is based on valuation. Think about this – When you add in there’s less trading going on overall the number of real investors in the market has decreased by 60 to 75%. Two thirds (2/3) of the investors have left the market – this under normal circumstances  would plunge stocks to record lows.
  • This also makes a mockery of investment analysis. Almost all investment analysts have built their models on technical and fundamental analysis when the majority of  invested base on a companies valuation – not because of a trading imbalance.
  • Now  any stock/index/sector that has momentum/volume has more chances for imbalance and therefore more trading volume.
  • HFT’s dominance shatter shatters traditional technical analysis

Bottom LineIt’s not your old buy and hold forever market is gone gone gone. So is the old technical analysis. Example – Now you can have an index rally on insignificant volume when the Fed POMO gets factored in.  New factors like HFT and DPE’s dominate. This dramatically changes investment strategies.

Investors411 will continue to bring you, outside the box realities that impacts equities and economics

_____________

.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.57% down
NASDQ +0.53% down
S&P 500 +0.62% down
Russell 2000 +1.07% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Yawn, yet ANOTHER move higher in WEAK volume. 50 to 70% of the volume is soaked up by HFT’s chasing imbalances in trades. This makes those investing because of valuations unbelievably small 30 to 50% of yesterday’s already weak volume yesterday.
  • The Fed POMO bought $8.3 billion form its giant shadow bank members yesterday. With so few real investors out there the manipulated market moved higher.
  • Mantra till it no longer works - still endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see past Investors411 for many, many moons on this topic).
  • One reason why POMO is so strongwhen it comes to stocks is that there are so FEW real investors.
  • Warning signMajor emerging markets are taking a hit EWZ (Brazil) FXI (China) & IFN India are all down 10 to 20% from their highs. One reason for this is that our Fed’s POMO program is adding to inflation fears in those countries.
  • Not a very significant week as far as expected stock news is concerned. However one big unexpected piece of news is a market mover (negative) China raised Interest rates again another 0.25%.
  • Our Fed POMO program (quantitative easing) has many side effects(positive and negative).  It impacts the valuation of Chinese currency and their interest rates. Warning here - Interest rates go up n China means at some time in the near future Chinese goods are going to cost more here.

____________

.

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar was flat yesterday  -0.02%. The three day dollar rally should have hurt stocks, but stocks held onto gains = Bullish. All that had to happen was a flat dollar and like magic US stocks rallied. Longer term trend three weeks of dramatic fall is  bearish for dollar, and for stocks. Overall for stocks still = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Rose to to to +23.41 Check out the MO chart. Set the time to three years and you will see that it has been almost three months since the MO has hit +/- 60. About once a month the MO reached +/- 60 in the past.  Conclusions – The new MO now has +/- 40 as an overbought/oversold level. It’s too quite – like all of a sudden you’re waling in the forest and all the background noise (birds crickets wind etc) stops Stocks = Neutral

_________________

Reading The Tea Leaves

Same mantraA manipulated US stock market is moving higher on stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing. Financials and stocks have received unbelievable support from our government and the Fed.

Major emerging markets are in a meltdown. A correction of 5 to 10% has turned into a 10 to 20% meltdown. Big time inflation is the enemy of stocks. They are starting to experience this.  Devaluing foreign currency has a positive effect here. However longer term when emerging market goods cost more here inflation grows in the USA. Every sophisticate investor sees some sort of inflation on the horizon.  The question is when.

Gold, and commodities may work as a hedge on inflation, but when it comes to the USA,  going short equities provides much more protection.

What to watch today

UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar)  See $USD above for more. Dollar may be turning back down. When after a short rally a stock/sector index opens and closes at same price it often indicates a reversal.

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL -  The tech general broke out to a new high in moderately higher volume. Up 1.55%. Today is its “confirmation day” to see if the move up holds. AAPL joins a smaller tech giant  IBM who broke out a while back

___________________

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (leveraged ETF 2x small cap stocks)Sold 1/2 at 45.34 yesterday for 5+% gain
  • REMX (1/2 position Bought at 23.78 and sold 1/2 at 25.03 for 5+% gain) Still moving up
  • DBC Three down days in light volume puts it just below price it was bought for. 5% stop loss on DBC. Expect this to be a long term trade.

From yesterday - Investors411 #1 new area of investments is commodities. For the past few weeks there has been a significant increase in volume in this area = Investors are coming off sidelines to buy.

Thought I had bought RJA yesterday. I had a buy order in at 11.36. This is risky and longer term investors may want to wait for a bigger dip. However this Exchange Traded Note is

UCO -(2x oil prices)  On dips. Wait till it consolidates lower  and returns to pre Egypt crisis levels or below.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Sold 1/2 at 25.03. Will hold the rest. Considering buying more on a dip. Bought at 23.78. Will buy more on dip

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog Bought at 28.62 Stop loss at 5% below purchase price. DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals.

*RJA (Agriculture commodities Index) ETN New today Has dipped from high for last two days. another moderate dip an Investors will add to ETF portfolio. So considering DJP today & RJA on dips

UWM (2x small cap stocks) – Have set stop/loss for last 1/2 at 40.02 -the price it was bought for.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See “POSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.“ (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
February 7, 2011

The Mafia & The Market

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

The Mafia & the Stock Market

America’s wealthy oligarchy/mafia is sucking up the profits from Wall Street. How they use YOU and take your money.

Investors411 has for years spoken out against the scams, ponzi schemes and casino capitalism of Wall Street. Today’s focus are two legitimate skimming operations that suck YOUR profits, if you are fortunate to make any – “High Frequency Trades” and “Dark Pools.”

Much of the data comes from Chris Martinson interview of Joe Saluzzi. LINK & Wall Street in Now Controlled By Machines

High frequency trades are growing and they now take up “50 to 70″% of the trades. Perhaps 80% if you believe CNBC’s Jim Cramer. Dark Pools have grown to “about 12% of all trades in 2008 to 30% in 2010″ according to data [Saluzzi]. High Frequency Traders also use these black pools or off exchange markets to traded.

As described in the past these HFT’s with their lightning quick computers look for trading imbalances in fractions of seconds and automatically make the trade. Their success ratio on trades is a guaranteed 100%.  To get into a hedge fund or brokerage that makes HFT’s you have to be part of the financial oligarchy. Net worth probably at least a minimum $10 million and and sallary over 7 figures a year.

How you loose and how trading strategy is dramatically altered because of this tomorrow

EGYPT

Many thanks to Popeye in the comments section who is keeping us all updated on the Egyptian crisis. Starting with Tunisia, Egypt and other dictators/oligarchs are ow going to be forced to give people greater freedoms. The Technology mega trend is positively impacting world change. Through it people are becoming more aware of their oppression.

al Jazeera YOU TUBE continues to be the bet resource. Diverse panel of significant world wide experts discussing Egypt as I write.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.25% flat
NASDQ +0.56% down
S&P 500 +0.29% down
Russell 2000 +0.19% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Yawn, yet another marginal move higher in weak volume typical of the Fed POMO melt ups of the past year.
  • Monthly jobless number last Friday showed +36,000 jobs –  a significant disappointment. Yet the rate dropped from 9.4% to 9.0% because another 500,000+ people are so discouraged that they were dropped from the rolls. That over 1.1 million dropped in the last two months as the headline figure dropped from 9.7% to 9.0%. Bottom Line - The headline unemployment figure is  no longer relevant.
  • Mantra till it no longer worksstill endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [schedule] is and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see past Investors411 for many, many moons on this topic).
  • Earnings season is basically over.
  • Here’s yet another analyst Mark Mansfield calling for a correction. Good points if you use backtesting, history, technical analysis to measure stocks. However today’s market is run by the Fed POMO, high frequency traders and

Here’s the January numbers just published at 8:30 AM EST - +36,000 jobs below expectations and rate is -9.0% Very hard to understand drop in rates with so few jobs created. December was revised up to +121,000 jobs from 103,000

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose  +0.38% Friday. The three day dollar rally should have hurt stocks, but stocks held onto gains. Longer term trend three weeks of dramatic fall is  bearish for dollar, and for stocks. Overall for stocks still = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell to to +8.78 Just above the middle of range. Equal up side and down side potential = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Same old stuff – The Fed is dominating stocks with its POMO. If Egypt’s crisis was only a minor irritation to US equities hard to see any other fundamental having a major negative impact.

What to watch today

UUP – Again, The dollar tracking ETF. UUP in three week fall. The fact that UUP rose for the last three days in significantly reduced volume means a trend reversal is not yet apparent. Most likely an oversold rebound.

Remember – The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL –  The tech general directly below an  upside breakout point. IBM a smaller , but important tech giant has broken out.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (leveraged ETF 2x small cap stocks) Stop placed on what it was bought for and will sell 1/2 if 5+% gain
  • REMX 1/2 position sold for +5% profit on Friday
  • DBC

Investors411 #1 new area of investments is commodities. For the past few weeks there has been a significant increase in volume in this area = Investors are coming off sidelines to buy.

UCO -(2x oil prices)  On dip

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Already chased in 1/2 the position on a 5% rally. Will hold the rest. Considering buying more on a dip. Bought at 23.78

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) .

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog Bought at 28.62 Stop loss at 5% below purchase price. DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be *DJP that is more agriculture and metals.

*RJA Agriculture commodities Index ETN New today Has dipped from high for last two days. another moderate dip an Investors will add to ETF portfolio. So considering DJP today & RJA on dips

UWM (2x small cap stocks) – Looking to take profits on 1/2 at 5%. Have set stop/loss for 1/2 40.02 -the price it was bought for.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4) which is under construction.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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