Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
March 31, 2011

Shutdown and Stupidity

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Gold

Government Shut Down

The absolute hight of stupidity.

  • Issue #1 is jobs, job, jobs. Without jobs there is no one to pay taxes. Those that have no jobs drain the system by needing more welfare or becoming thieves to survive. Stupid
  • They are arguing over $30 billion when the debt is $13 trillion. This is like arguing over a crum that fell on the floor instead of the huge loaf of bread that is our debt. Stupid

One Solution“We have a one-time, 100 percent tax on all wealth (net worth) of all United States residents, with a $10 million per-person exemption. With household wealth at around $60 trillion, that should be plenty to pay off the accumulated debt and shore up Social Security and Medicare for the next century.” and it would fund all those wars that the military industrial complex needs to grow.

Don’t like that idea- another “The Federal Reserve creates $20 trillion in money but, instead of crediting it to large banks’ accounts at the Fed, it credits it to Treasury’s account. Again, no more debt

Promise that either one would be a one time fix and debt crisis solved. These “convenient concepts” come from the brain of James Kwak at the Baseline Senerio.  For more and is he serious? - here’s the link

Gold and Silver

For the last five years I’ve been the treasurer of a senior center and gold has been our top returning investment.

If you’ve never seen these two bears make a case for something you’re missing a funny and sometimes enlightening video. You may not agree with the doomsday people. I think their case is over the top. But, they do have some valid concepts or flows (moving in that direction)

This is #5 in the series of why by silver. Did you know there are 15 kilograms of silver in each tomahawk missile?

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.58% up
NASDQ +0.72% up
S&P 500 +0.67% up
Russell 2000 +1.31% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Yawn – Another low volume rally. Fed liquidity has a muzzle muzzle on the mouths of bears.
  • Any bears or black swans who have fought this trend or spoken out against it have been slaughtered by Uncle Ben and the Fed.
  • Another $5 billion pumped into economy – Oh and by the way the Fed is now , by far, the biggest holder of US debt
  • Fed POMO all comes to an end on June 30th. – Whose going to buy our bonds/debt then? Of course after July 1 happens, the Fed could say OMG lets do QE #3.
  • Enjoy the rally while it lasts.
  • Big Jobs number on Friday. Means much more for the economy than it does for stocks, Every day foreign consumers are gaining wealth and globalized US companies don’t really care who buys.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a wee bit -0.17. Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but it started  a four day bull run that’s stalled out over the last three days and could be turning.  For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +42.25. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. Any significant rally would put the MO over +60 = Neutral/Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

MO broke its +30 resistance barrier and usually +60  has historically been the level of change – stocks get too overbought. Now is clearly not the time to buy stocks. But to hold or sell.

However the dollar has become the key metric to watch. The dollar is the trump cardIt’s bolded below. There’s a good chance the dollar may have hit a short term top and is ready to fall. This would be bullish especially for gold and silver.

What to watch today - Market movers

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya not good.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading just above its 50 DMA. Very Interesting that this latest rally happened without AAPL’s/technologies leadership. Leading sectors rotated to energy & industrials.
  • Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. (2x long small cap stocks) Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Remainder up +12% now. MO getting to highwill sell into any rally
  • A Hedge – Sold EWV for 35.55 and UWM for 48,75 – Reasons for sale listed yesterday. The total gain was @+2%

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.  A risk, but, this area because of limited supply and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - I’ve jaw boned this for way too long and waited for the right dip, but missed it.  This is a credible long term asset to have. I’d buy any dip. I do own both in other accounts.

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term OutlookCAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 30, 2011

Is the Sky Falling

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Chicken Little getting ready – From the Disney Movie

Is the Economic Sky Falling?

There’s some pretty positive results from economic measures taken so far. Employment figures have turned, stocks have rocketed higher and we avoided a second depression. But there are those that see things getting a whole lot worse rapidly.

Here’s a relative credible analyst Chris Martenson who believes the economic meltdown is upon us and how to prepare for it. He has lots of valid points, but I don’t share his degree of severity

Yankee Bob Is Back

In the comments section there’s a well thought out debate on Libya.  But just before baseball season,  Yankee Bob launches another editorial.

You can read Bob’s editorial and others in yesterday’s comment section (scroll down) An excerpt and a suggested link below.

“Libya is important but not nearly as much as the the Rights Jihad against worker rights and what is unfolding at Fukeshima.”
Yankee Bob
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03…

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.67% up
NASDQ +0.96% down
S&P 500 +0.71% up
Russell 2000 +0.94% -

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.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Chart above from the St. Louis fed itself shows the amount of liquidity (BASE ) that has been injected into the US economy. That’s over +2.4 Trillion
  • With a growing supply of money like this, and zero % interest rates its almost inevitable that US stocks grow in value. (reasons for this listed in past Investors411 for many moons)
  • Almost every credible technical analyst has called for a major correction weeks and months ago.  This increase in money supply has trumped their predictions and trumped some major black swan events. Yes, everything is bubblicious and the longer it stays that way the bigger the pop at the end.
  • Take Advantage of This While it Last. Fed POMO is over June 30th and who knows if we will have another. It’s possible at some stage that investors/hedge funds/brokerage houses will front run this number and sell.
  • The major sign for a bubble bursting would be the dollar collapsing or your typical high volume climax run.
  • Here’s a relative credible analyst (above) Chris Martenson who believes the economic meltdown is upon us and how to prepare for it. He has lots of valid points, but I don’t share his degree of severity.
  • Oh yea, another low volume rally market manipulated rally yesterday.  Bad news – Poor consumer sentiment was the spark for a rally.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose a wee bit +0.16. Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but it started  a four day bull run that’s stalled out over the last two days.  For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell back to +25.34. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. = Neutral/ Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

MO is telling us that we are getting close to an  overbought resistance area (+30). However the dollar is the perhaps the key metric to watch. Falling dollar =rising US stocks.

What to watch todayMarket movers

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. (2x long small cap stocks) Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Remainder up +10% now. Sell order  for original UWM position is a 5% trailing stop
  • A Hedge – Day two = UWM +1.88% & EWV + 0.22% day #2. – Even though day two has put this trade 2% in the black I’m considering ending it. Japan’s central bank is manipulating the currency, with the help of other central banks and this mitigates the impact. Plus I’m feeling guilty over making money over a what I think is going to be a worse disaster.

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Up 3% yesterday on verge of breakout. A risk, but, this area because of limited supply and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - Dipping has my interest today, but still too far above its 50 day moving average to buy.

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s (Paul is at an investment seminar this week) always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 29, 2011

Hold Em or Fold Em

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Obama

Obama on Libya

Here’s the NYT  editorial – basically an favorable review on an overdue speech to nation. Also the far right’s Bill Kristol  kudos from the Weekly Standard – “You’ve Come A Long Way Baby”

Both Popeye and Mama have made a understandable point in the comments section of Investors411 – This is tomahawks instead of teachers we are fostering and there is no clear and present danger to the USA. Many state the obvious – this multilateral action will be judged by wether Ka Daffy goes or stays. Good points -but

But consider a more pragmatic approach. You get there by putting one step after another and moving toward your goal. In the case of Lybia there are concrete steps that should be recognized.

  • Nicholas Kristoff in NYT said words to the effect that  you can’t prvent every genocide, but preventing one is a good thing
  • This was a multilateral approach (UN & Arab League backing) not a unilateral one like Iraq
  • No boots on the ground invasion force, but the use of diplomacy and force.
  • Genuine thanks not a phony pulling down of Saddam’s statue directed by a US army psychological operations unit.
  • The “Arab Spring” of revolutions across the Mideast would have been endangered if action were not taken.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________


Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.19% down
NASDQ -0.45% down
S&P 500 -0.30% down
Russell 2000 -0.25% -

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.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

The QE1 & QE2 chart relative to stock prices that was in yesterday’s Investors411  is now in the Strategy Section

  • Another weak volume day. Slightly higher
  • Some entity sold big time into close. Otherwise we would have had weak volume & slightly higher
  • $99 billion in Treasuries are being sold this week. That’s a lot more than the Fed POMO alone can soak up. Fed usually buys a bit under $6 billion most days.
  • Take Advantage of This Bull Market While It Lasts is a worthy editorial from Equity Network Corporation.  Specifically they talk about reacting NOW on the news before it gets rehashed over and over again by media. Precious metals as an inflation hedge is the top call for a bullish year.  I’m not so sure about post QE @ (June 30), but hope they are right.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a wee bit -0.11% Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but we have started a three/four day bull run stalled yesterday.  For stocksBullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell back to +9.78 . Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. Yesterday was no exception – the +30 resistance level was too strong for bulls to break. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Stock markets are dynamic and fluid. Forecasting tools change depending on what kind of market we have. Right now both Fed liquidity injections and High Frequency trading are impacting markets and many traditional tools (like volume) are not working as well as they used to

Bottom Line - Different times demand different forecasting tools.

Both the dollar and the MO have worked well for many many moons. See (click on links) charts above.

Hold Em & Fold Em

If you’ve  followed Investors411 you know we have a proven winner in both The Dollar and the MO as market forecasting tools

  • The dollar going down far more often than not translates into stocks going up.
  • The MO’s longer term +/- 60 & shorter term +/- 30 are both reasonably accurate points momentum swings the other way (oversold or overbought) The + side of the MO is overbought and the – side oversold.

Investors411 has repeatedly show why markets like seemingly bad news – it means more Fed quantitative easing. There are also key ETF’s to watch (see below) like USO (oil an inverse correlation) and tech leader AAPL that impact markets.

There hundreds, perhaps over a thousand different ways tell YOU – Hold Em or Fold Em. These seem to be working quite well now.

Short Bottom Line – We had our bull run off a -60 on the MO and paused as stocks got overbought. But obviously not all technicals (the MO being oversold/overbought) that moves markets. The headlines like earnings, Japan, Libya/oil, QE 2 are the drives and the technicals are the road signs of when to hold em and fold em.

So right now were in a holding pattern. The MO could fall to buyable levels and rise to fast and we’d have to sell. The momentum seems to be with the bulls.

What to watch today – Market movers

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. (2x long small cap stocks) Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Remainder up 8% now
  • A Hedge – Day one = UWM -0.60% & EWV + 0.55%  So day #1 was a wash.

UWM - – Sell order  for original UWM position is a 5% trailing stop

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Dipped in front of a strong resistance level.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - Dipping has my interest today

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

We are on the cusp of change from NEUTRAL. We could swing back if stocks dip

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 28, 2011

Black Swans

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

JapanTEPCO in Japan has finally called for outside help. Even Greenpeace is on the ground saying their readings differ from TEPCO’s (science over politics) Common Dreams web site has a fascinating  real time tweeter updates TEPCO admits protracted and uncertain operation to contain crisis. Here the short version of the best video yet on the tsunami

Taxes –  GE made $14.2 billion in profits last year and over $5 billion in the USA. Guess how much they paid in taxes last year year Wait for it, Wait for it,  Wait for it – ZERO.  Now remember your taxes are due by April 15. Only in America

Financial Reform – Seems that virtually all Republicans and some Democrats are doing everything possible to make sure that those too big to fail shadow banks that destroy the meager measures the Dodd/Frank Bill put in place. The NYT’s lead editorial yesterday

Libya – This call may be premature, but it looks like after the allied/UN air strike many who supported Ka Daffy are changing sides. At least his army in the eastern 1/2 of the country has melted away. Al Jazeera reports no resistance to rebels in his home town. Huffington Post live blog

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Here’s the chart that demonstrates what Investors411 has been saying  since last year and why the Bulls Rule in our liquidity driven Fed manipulated stock market. (I realize most of you are sick of me saying the above again and again, but NOW is the opportunity to profit from this)

  • This chart was done by Kevin McCElroy from Seeking Alpha.
  • Want to know more? – Impact of POMO on Dollar by LFB from SA

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.41% down
NASDQ +0.24% down
S&P 500 +0.32% down
Russell 2000 +0.83% -

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.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Another weak volume liquidity driven manipulated rally on Friday.
  • On the surface it looks like the rag tag exuberant bunch called rebels in Libya are winning, because oncee air strikes clobbered exposed military units resistance became almost non existent – For stock = bullish. For oil = Bearish For Ka Daffy = Bearish
  • Black Swans (Big event bad news) everywhere. From John Nyaradi on this week’s outlook in stocks. Remember bad news is more often than not an elixir for stocks because it means a stronger possibility of more quantitative easing.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose significantly +0.74% Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but we have started a three day bull run For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +24.38 Getting oversold. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30 = Bearish /Neutral

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.

Reading The Tea Leaves

The Bulls have had a stellar 7 day run in weak volume. (weak volume rally= calling card of a liquidity driven manipulated market)  They are starting to come up against some technical resistance that may slow them down – A rising dollar and the MO nearing overbought levels. “Merger” Monday  has historically been the best day of the week. If Ka Daffy supporters don’t have the stomach for a fight you could see rally continue. The however  perversely good news (lower oil prices if Ka Daffy looses) may turn out negative because it would mean less of a chance of QE ##

Short term rising dollar and oversold levels should hold bulls back this week.

War room

Every major group of traders is sitting in their war rooms discussing the end of QE #2 (quantitative easing) and how it will impact markets before/on/after June 30th (ending date)

Will the Fed do a QE #3? Since we have over 3 months till this happens bulls should rule unless too many traders front run what they perceive is the end of quantitative easing. Frankly, there are whole mess of investors out there who believe there will be a QE #3.

So best read of tea leaves is still bullish till June 30th. More low volume rallies. (see chart above)

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. (2x long small cap stocks) Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Remainder up  8+% now
  • A Hedge – Friday bought UWM at 47.00 & EWV (2x short Japan) at 35.81 (see comments section of blog)

UWM – - Sell order  for original UWM position is a 5% trailing stop

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. - approaching highs of last month & 2010 – I do own this ETF in other accounts and have sold covered calls on some of it.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Dipped in front of a strong resistance level.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversly to the dollar

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

Your Stock List seems to be turning the corner and has 5 breakout stocks

3 of the 4 major indexes are above their 50 DMA’s and the NASDQ is sitting on its 50 DMA.

Longer Term OutlookCAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 24, 2011

Investor in Wonderland

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Yankee Bob - just one week before the baseball season starts and Bob is back with an editorial on Nuclear Power in today’s comments section. Here’s an excerpt -

“…First rule of poker or gaming theory is never bet more then you are prepared to lose. Who paces bets on nuclear energy generation? Not the people.  Corporations looking for profit place the bets…”

Hint  - The young Red Sox’s fan pictured above is NOT making a comment on Yankee Bob’s editorial, but on a baseball team.

Investor In Wonderland – Stock market editorial below in Reading The Tea Leaves Section.

Radiation In Japan – Two other prefectures next to Tokyo have the glow in the dark radiated water. (so maybe it doesn’t glow, but I sure folks wish radiated water did glow) No “harmfull” levels in Tokyo today – or so we are told by those oh so reliable officials. Steam from all 4 reactors today. 1st time from reactor #1. This from helicopter crew with might big zoom lens 30 kilometers away from nuke plant.

Hacker Collective/Anonymous - Out with proclamation – These folks exposed The Chamber of Commerce’s hidden smear tactics against opponents and BAC’s hidden manipulations.

“getting our National Rights and dreams back….To effectively reform the system that has enslaved us, we must consider the advice and example of those who have preceded us. Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and JFK are good places to start. All took fierce positions against central banking, government corruption and corporate power… The time has come for us to unite, the time has come for us to stand up and fight. ”

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.56% up
NASDQ +0.54% up
S&P 500 +0.29% up
Russell 2000 +0.32% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Another weak volume liquidity driven manipulated rally. Fed POMO buying ended at 11:00AM EST and that’s when US stocks started to rally
  • 2 days of Fed buying = $15 billion Sure helps stocks to have a tsunami of liquidity behind the trading desks of Goldman Sachs and other shadow institutions/primary Fed dealers.
  • BAC (Bank of America) was NOT allowed to issue a dividend. Our cover up specialists, oops excuse me – government regulators said no dividend for BAC, they didn’t pass the stress test, but its all opaque because no numbers were published and would you trust the numbers of people who post government job could be to work for financials they regulate.
  • New home sales dipped 17% – another horrible statistic in housing. XHB – The ETF for homebuilders rallied on the news – Really I’m not kidding.

________________

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose significantly +0.75% One day does not change the pattern. Clear bearish longer term pattern still in place. For stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to -0.81 Right in the middle – not overbought or oversold. = Neutral

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

Welcome to the world of liquidity driven Shadow & Central Bank manipulated markets. Not Alice in Wonderland, but Investor in Wonderland.

The Bad news

  • Housing down 17%
  • Huge Bank fails stress test.
  • Oil Prices high and moving higher
  • The dollar up significantly
  • Radiated water in a city of 13 million people
  • Another oil war looks like a protracted stalemate.
  • Europe debt crisis grows as Portugal’s government collapses on a no confidence vote

So what does our stock market do – A RALLY

There is a perverse logic to this bad news is fodder for a rally.  The more bad news there is the more Central Banks (especially the USA) around the world print money or institute quantitative easing. This is all leading to one big bubble bursting down the road, but for now we have all leaned to balance on the top of that ever expanding bubble.

From Yesterday on Japan’s growing Nuclear problems –  Investors or media in the USA may not pick up on this story immediately, but it sure looks like it has major long term consequences that will impact Japan’s GDP.

At least Japan’s markets were actually DOWN a bit on bad news. But just a bit because Japan, just like the USA is going to print gobs of  TOILET PAPER (aka money)  to pay off their debt.

Short Term Bottom Line – So in honor of baseball season in just one week – Put Your Rally Caps on – This is a Bubblicious Wonderland,

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya. (diminishing factor, but still important)
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Close at 45.49 yesterday.

UWM - – Sell order still in at 43. 93 (1% above what i was bought for) which will close entire position.

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan. Problems there are under estimated and/0r covered up.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. – approaching highs of last month & 2010 – I do own this ETF in other accounts and have sold covered calls on some of it.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. - Shouda Woulda Coulda – Up +3.73% two days ago - Dipped yesterday, but ended up confirming or holding onto gains. Strong consideration to buy any dip.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Buy the dip

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Another day or two like yesterday and the Long Term Outlook goes back to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.

Longer Term OutlookNEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 23, 2011

Danger Will Robinson Danger Dager

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Radiation in Tokyo Tap Water

“radioactive iodine that exceeds the level considered safe for infants has been detected in Tokyo’s tap water, a city official said on Wednesday, advising parents not to give it to their babies. Sydney Morning Herald

  • Tokyo is 150 miles from leaking nuke plant.
  • How long did it take for radiated water to  reach Tokyo. (Example- Was a water source 2 miles from the plant radiated and can water traveled underground that far? )
  • Will radiated water (twice infant safety levels) extend further to all of Japan?
  • Japan recently significantly raised the amount of an acceptable radiation dose.
  • Black smoke again coming from a reactor and plant again evacuated. (these evacuations have been temporary in past)
  • Shut down reactor #1 now overheating to 400 degrees Celsius- TEPCO

“water at a purification plant for the capital of 13 million people had 210 becquerels of radioactive iodine — more than twice the safety level for infants.” Another headline

Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger - It’s time to bring out the old Lost in Space Robot with all its bells and whistles to shout danger, danger for investors.

The crisis in Japan has been underestimated and impacts hidden by officials. (see past posts) The news has also been overshadowed in the USA by our self interest and fascination with (Libyan) war.

The Japanese rector crisis is not going to be over until all the leaking reactors are encased like Chernobyl’s.

Bottom Line - Simply put, there is a danger that Tokyo and a large portion of Japan will be a radiated ghost town – the implication for the Japanese and the world economy is going to be far greater than first feared.

Our hearts and prayers go out to the brave, heroic people of Japan. You are handling this crisis far better than Americans.

However as an investor, its prudent to be cautious until the extent of the damage is known.

Postscript -Very happy for JS, a frequent contributor,  whose family member flew back to USA a few days ago.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.15% down
NASDQ -0.31% down
S&P 500 -0.36% down
Russell 2000 -0.54% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Its a ghost town as trading dries up after a big three day gain. Usually holding onto 90+% of a three day gain in low volume is a confirmation of the move higher. But the old technical text book has been thrown away because of  a liquidity driven manipulated stock market.
  • Headlines rule - The Japan headline may not have a big impact on stocks immediately, but the potential negative impact over time is vast.
  • Futures prices were +30 for Dow at 6:00AM EST and now -25 at almost 9:00 AM. So impact of radiated water seems to be minimal.

________________

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar was basically flat -0.05% Bearish longer term pattern. For stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -4.03 Right in the middle – not overbought or oversold. = Neutral

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

Repeat from yesterday - The USD and the MO are the two technical tools that have a track record of working in this manipulated US stock market. One is neutral the other bullish.

Because the Japanese government has downplayed the tragedy, the Japanese people have not panicked, and American news is focused on Libya, the extent of the damage has been grossly underestimated. (see warning above) . Radioactivity at levels harmful to infants in the water supply is going to impact the health, industrial capacity and consumer power of Japan far more than originally estimated.

This can easily overwhelm our liquidity driven manipulated market.

Investors or media in the USA may not pick up on this story immediately, but it sure looks like it has major long term consequences that will impact Japan’s GDP.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya. (diminishing factor, but still important)
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • Bought UWM. Sold 1/2 at 45.69 for +5% gain.

UWM – - Sell order in at 43. 93 (1% above what i was bought for) which will close entire position.

ETF’s currently Under Consideration

As short term play considering ETF’s that short market (they are listed in POSITIONS Section of blog on top right)

Hedge play – Shorting the NASDQ and going long the Dow through ETF’s – Reasoning – Tech stocks are very dependent on Japan for both consumers and manufacturing. The Dow 30 is not as dependent.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. – Shouda Woulda Coulda – Up +3.73% yesterday – Now a buy the dip

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver). At or near new highs

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. SeePOSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

If the majority of the major indexes again start to trade above their 50 day moving averages the long term outlook will change back to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. The Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) already is and the others are close. (See charts at top right of blog)

Longer Term OutlookNEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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March 22, 2011

Abysmal

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Burning Book

Libya – The UN/Obama’s reason for a no fly zone was to prevent a genocide. The USA/Obama policy is the removal of Ka Daffy. They are two different concepts. Obama’s action in the use of force against Libya without congressional approval was probably unconstitutional, but events on the ground called for immediate action before the collapse of opposition forces.

Japan –  It’s obvious to the whole world that the Japanese government has not been honest about the extent of damage from their nuclear problem. The Japanese people have been heroic. Radiation 20 km away from plant is 1600 times normal according to IAEA A significant potion of Japan is going to become a radiative wasteland like Chernobyl disaster in Russia.

Smoke and Mirrors of a

Manipulated Markets

Burn all the historic book on stock market analysis out there. Forget the analysis of of self interested talking heads on the tube. What we have in the USA is simply a manipulated market that has  radically altered what used to pass for traditional investing.

Forget the experts and/or brokers who are paid exorbitant fees for market analysis. Burn the book and blow away the smoke. Here’s new rule #1. When volume is abysmal US stocks move higher. Little else matters.

Low volume = a rally

Why when volume plunges does the market rally? Simply put – Its easier to manipulate. This allows those entities juiced by zero % interest rates, those benefiting from the Fed POMO program, and big US companies with hoard of cash to manipulate stocks higher.

One favorite way is through High Frequency Trades (HFT’s) that almost mystically make huge buy and sell offers for stocks appear, vanish and sometime buy. These automated computer programs seemingly vanish in high volume but reappear when volume dries up and drive stocks higher. Of course certain HFT’s are always around taking advantage of trade imbalances.

Bottom Line –  For all of you who trade or own stocks  This is a headline driven market and it takes a massive headline to overwhelm the manipulators. It took both the Middle East crisis & Japan Catastrophe to even put a dent in manipulated stocks.

Short term the tsunami of  liquidity makes this a manipulated bull market. Longer term there are some very negative consequences, but that’s another editorial.


_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.50% down
NASDQ +1.83% down
S&P 500 +1.50% down
Russell 2000 +2.31% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Lowest volume since Feb. 14th. Low volume = markets rally. The lower the volume the easier it is to manipulate the markets Therefore the manipulators –  the Fed, shadow banks, High Frequency Traders & others push stocks higher.
  • The far less than 50% of the market that belongs to investors who make their decisions on stock valuations are currently focused on  - higher oil prices, a falling dollar, economic distortions created by Japan, & emerging market growth
  • The following is becoming the dominant force in the US stock market. -If markets go down its because of fundamental reasons. When US stocks rise its because of manipulation.
  • Since QE2 began in November there have been dozens upon dozens of low volume rally days. Sometimes huge rallies, sometimes small. That’s the new normal.

________________

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell again -0.42% Bearish longer term pattern. Major support level broken. Down 6 of last 7 days. For stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to +6.32  Right in the middle – not overbought or oversold. = Neutral

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

The USD and the MO are the two technical tools that have a track record of working in this manipulated US stock market. One is neutral the other bullish.

The dollar’s fall is good for stocks, but as mentioned numerous times before, falling too far too fast is dangerous. We haven’t reached those levels yet, but if the dollar falls another 3 to 5 % rapidly you are going to hear a chorus of very worried economists


What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya. (diminishing factor, but still important)
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments (diminishing factor, but still important)

___________________

Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • Bought UWM (see Friday’s blog) at 43.49

UWM – Will sell 1/2 at @5% profit and let the rest ride. Will sell/haves stop at 1/2 at price it was bought for

See yesterday’s blog for list of considered ETF’s

Will buy the dip to buy if we get one today. Of course if there is a catastrophic negative headline I’ll wait to buy. Perhaps last day before MO gets too high to buy.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. SeePOSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

If the majority of the major indexes again start to trade above their 50 day moving averages the long term outlook will change back to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. The Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) already is and the others are close. (See charts at top right of blog)

Longer Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
March 21, 2011

Bulls are Back

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Japan Death Toll

.

Japan

Major news of day is TEPCO (Utility co. for Japan nuke disaster), has finally admitted what was obvious -  “[nuclear]  fuel rods have been damaged.”

Translation – The rods will have to be encased is cement/lead or whatever they use – Everything else is just media fluff, unless there’s a meltdown

.

Why Stocks Have/Will Rally

Three major factors behind the worldwide stock market recovery since the 2008 lows.

  • Massive stimulus/bailout by governments.
  • Opaque accounting systems (FASB) & 0% interest rates for shadow banks
  • Quantitative Easing.

Focus today is on Quantitative Easing (sometimes referred to as QE 1, QE2, Fed POMO)

The following is a link to a three year chart of the benchmark S&P 500

Notice the strong correlation between quantitative easing and stocks moving higher.

  • QE #1 starts in the spring of 2008 (along with FASB) and market move dramatically higher
  • QE #1 ends at the end of the 1st quarter in 2009 – stocks move down.
  • QE #2 announced in Nov. of 2010. Stocks move higher again (they start a month+ earlier in anticipation of more QE 2)

Since November 2010, the chart pattern has been bullish with low volume rallies. The Fed buys treasuries from (and gives them a 0% loan rate) shadow banks and they, wink wink, know what to do with the money – prop up stocks.

  • Major Fundamental events (Japan & revolutions/oil prices) can only dent this steady march of low volume rallies higher.
  • Every technical analyst realizes that low volume rallies for month after month are basically an impossibility.

So unless there is another unforeseen factor, stocks should again move higher till QE 2 runs out on June 30th. If stocks fall then QE #3 is possible. This is a bubble building manipulation that benefits the ruling wealthy class in the USA, so it should continue.

Bubbles pop and working class American’s will pay the cost or go under (inflation or monetary collapse). However, for now, stimulus (Obama tax compromise) FASB & 0% interest rates are still in place. So the future looks decent for stocks till the bubble bursts.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.71% up
NASDQ +0.29% up
S&P 500 +0.43% up
Russell 2000 +1.16% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

Japan, Libya/oil are still the two dominant factors. But they are diminishing.

  • Friday, A whole bunch of big US shadow banks passed a government stress test and were allowed to issue dividends. In the opaque financial world we live in, this means even GMAC (GM’s financial wing that was overwhelmed with over leveraged debt) is healthy according to the US Treasury who pushed for opaque accounting (FASB) and has given the  bankster class in the USA a get out of jail free card.. – Accountability is near non existent, but lots are buying on this news.
  • Obviously, UN intervention in Libya has changed the balance. Protracted battle or quick victory now the question.
  • Perception of  an improving  Japan and Middle East at forefront of news. (Jeff Miller)
  • It’s back – Sure looks like the the Fed manipulated POMO market has taken hold again. Time will tell, but the same low volume melt up pattern is starting to dominate. Every day this pattern happens it gets stronger.
  • Any pure technical analysis of this market says things will crumble, but the Fed manipulation has worked before it was interrupted by Japan and high oil prices and it should work again.

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell again Friday -0.42% Bearish longer term pattern. Major support level broken. Today battle to see if the dollar can confirm breakdown. = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to -26.76 Below zero, which gives bulls slight advantage, but overall =Neutral

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

From Friday - Longer Term - A potentially winnable war in Libya, Japan rebuilds without nuclear power, and Saudis plus other oil dictatorships asserting authoritarian power/stability. If only those reactors don’t radiate a big hunk of Japan we have the potential for bulls to run.

Looks like we’re back in the low, decreased volume, rallies of a Fed manipulated market at least for the short term and perhaps longer.

The US Dollar falling is going to make US goods cost less abroad and is a short term +++.  However if it falls to far too fast the bubble could burst. If we continue to see a string or 0.50+ losses, then the bubble is getting ready to pop.

AAPL is now an anchor holding back bulls.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya. (diminishing factor, but still important)
  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments (diminishing factor, but still important)

___________________

Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • Bought UWM (see Friday’s blog) at 43.49

Commodities are on fire after coming off lows last Wednesday. Those of you who bought the dip made out. Also small cap stocks have done the same.  See above for more analysis.

From FridaySo I’m buyer today – probably UWM.

Today – Considering RJA – Has dipped because of Japan. Psychological impact of radiated food in Japan will send world agriculture products higher.

  • One plausible long term play is to go long small cap stocks and short technology.  Techs are getting hurt by loss of Japan manufacturing.
  • Another is long US car dealers and short Japanese dealers.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver).

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new ”YOUR Stock List.”

Still NEUTRAL, but far closer to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH than CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

Longer Term OutlookNEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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March 18, 2011

March Madness

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

News /Trends/ Politics

  • United Nations – “voted Thursday to authorize military action, including air strikes against Libyan tanks and heavy artillery and a no-fly zone, a risky foreign intervention aimed at averting a bloody rout of rebels by forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.”  Thanks to Popeye for heads up on NYT story
  • Japan – Someone, somewhere, somehow really knows what’s going on. But their lips are sealed as Japanese government says one thing and other countries say something else. Latest news “smoke from reactors,” at Huffington Post. This smoke and mirrors is exactly like the shadow banking system in the USA who doesn’t even have to follow FASB
  • Anonymous – More on the internet hacker group that “above all intends to break the international banking cartel centered at the Fed
  • United Nations – Irony: Almost every country that voted to give Obama/France & England cover to take out Ka Daffy, cited the support of the “Arab League.” It just so happens that the vast majority of the Arab League is itself oppressive dictators.  Oh well – we sacrifice one revolution – Bahrain,  to crush a more despotic regime in Libya.
  • ObamaHe shoots he scores: It took Cheney/Bush months of phony arguments and all they got was a now disintegrated “coalition of the willing” in Iraq. In a couple weeks Obama (Boy did the Clintons push for this) got a unanimous security council vote (10 voted yes & 5 abstained).  International credibility to attack Ka Daffy might even be a last second buzzer beater for the rebels.
  • Basketball – The most passionate US sporting tournament began yesterday. While you may call the above topics March Madness, the 68 college team tournament owns the rights to the real title – March Madness. (video)
  • LibyaJust in  - Ka Daffy says OMH and halts all hostility.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.39% down
NASDQ +0.73% down
S&P 500 +1.34% down
Russell 2000 +0.46% -

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.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

Japan’s nuclear situation is still the trump card – Situation improves  so do stocks. Now, Libya & oil become another dominant factor. Market movement is dictated more by behavioral psychology than technicals at this point. However, there are some relevant technical and fundamental points.

  • G7 intervention in Japan a short term positive for world markets. Stabilization better than chaos.
  • Visions of a kick ass  adrenaline rush war in Libya dance in traders minds today. But that can change to burning oil fields.

________________

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar fell a HUGE  -0.93% yesterday. Bearish longer term pattern. Chart shows dollar broke short term support, but directly above a major support level. = Bullish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to -54.76 Still close to -60  oversold level.=Neutral/Bullish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Obviously, we had an oversold MO at -88 and we had a rally. But there was a second factor to the rally and that was the HUGE drop in the dollar. Some of this has to do with the Japan situation. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) last night has intervened to prop up their currency as well as the G7. The BOJ is printing gobs of money and using quantitative easing.

We’ll probably see a roller coaster ride for the dollar.  The long term trend is down. This makes US goods cost less abroad and increases profit. Bad news here is you don’t want the dollar to fall to far too fast. It becomes as worthless as Zimbabwe’s currency. It’s also troubling that in a disaster (Japan & Arab revolutions) people do NOT buy the dollar as protection.

Longer Term – A potentially winnable war in Libya, Japan rebuilds without nuclear power, and Saudis plus other oil dictatorships asserting authoritarian power/stability. If only those reactors don’t radiate a big hunk of Japan we have the potential for bulls to run.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. – Headlines from Libya.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced

  • No positions held.

Longer Term - A low MO has for the last 3 years been an accurate the signal to buy. I’ve used this Positions Section as an aggressive ETF section for short term trades. Any long position below should outperform if we don’t hit leg two of a worldwide recession. Japan will be in recession. However, quantitative easing will pick up the slack in the USA (a QE #3) if the situation gets too bad. All this is one big inflationary bubble that bursts down the road, but for now its still bubblicious.

So I’m buyer today – probably UWM . See comments section for more.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver).

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

_________________

CONGRATULATIONS To Paul who just got a kudos from the HGSI Technical Analysis site

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. SeePOSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new “YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
March 17, 2011

Rebounds

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Elizabeth Warren

News/Trends /Politics

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

.

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -2.04% up
NASDQ -1.89% up
S&P 500 -1,95% up
Russell 2000 -1.19% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

Japan’s nuclear situation is still the trump card – Situation improves  so do stocks. Market movement is dictated more by behavioral psychology than technicals at this point. However, there are some relevant technical and fundamental points

  • Yesterday’s heavy volume sure liked a climax sell off or the start of one. Volume dramatically higher has wiped out the weak holder of stocks, and there is room for an upside move.
  • Single largest piece of financial news is the dramatic move higher for Japanese currency . Another economic blow to Japan All good coming from Japan will cost more and what’s called the “carry trade” has ended.

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose yesterday +0.46% Bearish longer term pattern. Chart shows dollar directly above a support level. = Neutral.
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to--88,39. Clearly oversold, but news from Japan trumps everything =Bullish

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

Japan reactor developments trump all technical aspects of the market. However, you have to start to think that at least some of the worst case senerio is built into stock prices.

This is a chart of the MO for the past 3 years The MO has fallen to -90 about 6 times in the last three years and each time it has improved dramatically within a couple days. It has not been this low in almost a year.

When you add the  flow of the Fed POMO money coming into the market to the fact that only strong holders of stocks are left you have a formula for a rally.

Yes, there could easily be another leg down on the Japanese reactor situation worsening. But for those with guts to buy when everyone else is selling now is the time. More reasonable investors will want to wait for another leg down or conclusion to the Japan reactor problem. Perhaps, A more sensible and cautious approach.

Stocks in pre market trading are moving higher. Moving up on no significant news from Japan is a positive sign. Moving up on bad news would be better.

Bottom Line – An oversold rebound is likely and shouldl turn into a rally if Japan situation stabilizes.

The one worry is Fed POMO runs out on June 30. If stocks are bad, there will probably be more quantitative easing. But the uncertainty over this hurts stocks.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now down below $100.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL -
  • Japan Rector Developments

___________________

Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • No positions held.

Considering UWM or TNA near the open if it does not open dramatically higher. Could be a very short term trade.  See comments section of blog for timing.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver).

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals - Both DBC & DJP are on breakout runs.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF. Hopefully longer term holding. .

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including the new ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!


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