Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
April 29, 2011

“Fight of the Century”

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

FOTC-thumb

Fight of the Century in Economics

Keynes vs Hayek

Solutions to our current economic crisis set to a music video. These two long dead nobel prize winning economists are the leaders of two major economic theories/solutions.

How this “Fight of the Century” plays out is going to dramatically impact YOUR life.

One significant point is the whole problem reached its apex because financial markets in the USA were unregulated.

However, both sides make excellent points in offering solutions. Some look at either side with Osama Been Forgotten religiosity.  Others with pure greed. Keep an open mind and enjoy.

After viewing – If you want more see site of producers Econostories.tv

Football Players vs Teachers

Collective Bargaining  Question –

Why is it that many Republicans want to obliterate the collective bargaining rights of Teachers, Cops, Firefighters, and Unions, yet they say absolutely nothing about the NFL players who are collectively bargain for their rights?

{Thanks to Harry G, a frequent reader/contributor for this concept)


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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.57% down
NASDQ +0.09% down
S&P 500 +0.36% down
Russell 2000 +0.38% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Broken record – Another low volume melt up induced by the Fed’s injections of liquidity into stocks.
  • While individual earnings reports do impact each stock the High Frequency Traders and their super computers sill dominate the market by making up 70+% of all trades.
  • That USA GDP slowdown prediction that Bernanke announced negatively impacted world wide stock markets overnight.
  • Simple equation is falling dollar good for US stocks/exporters and bad for foreign stocks/exporters.
  • “Officials are unfazed over dollar slide” WSJ
  • The 2008 financial meltdown created a worldwide problem, especially for debtor nations. Spain, because of its size, is perhaps the greatest problem. Unemployment 21.3% and rising inflation at 3.5%.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Down a significant -0.54 yesterday. Another a three year low. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Rose to+ 40.01.  Getting up there but still = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

What to watch today – Forget stocks and watch the dollar

  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

I know the Fed said it wasn’t worried about the dollar. (See comments yesterday on Bernanke’s press conference) But, the downside momentum has picked up over the last couple days and reached significant levels yesterday. Remember we are the world’s fiat currency and our currency is getting devalued.

  • The goodhelps US stocks, exporters, commodities and especially silver/gold.
  • The bad - Hurts foreign countries & raises commodity prices.
  • The ugly - Possible trade war – second great depression.

We have not reached crisis levels, but the direction is bad. Many see a huge storm coming and as a hedge are buying silver/gold

SLV is a juggernaut – It completely obliterated a climax sell off, moved 6% higher two days ago and marginally higher yesterday.

COMEX Silver is the official price of silver. Almost the same as SLV.  $50 is the key breakout level. If that level comes down and shorts are forced to cover, we could see another melt up.

Fear of the future is the fundamental driving this trade. You see this in US consumer confidence numbers and a recent gallop poll that show most Americans think we are in a depression/recession. Link below

55% of Americans see USA in Recession/Depression

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Look for Paul R’s enlightened views on stocks ing the comment section of blog

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Positions

See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

  • Would buy more silver/gold on dip. -
  • The stock/sectors to be in – is those companies that export or make their money abroad. This is because the dollar is getting devalued.

Disclosure - I have personal  positions in REMX,  SLV (smaller), DGP, UWM, RJA (smaller) and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 28, 2011

World’s most powerful

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

Bernanke

The Fed’s First Press Conference

This was THE EVENT and hyped in financial circles almost as much as ” the Pope on SNL”. It’s big.

The Fed set’s interest rates, makes huge loans to big banks, buys treasuries, and basically prints money (purists would say the Treasury does that) Many argue that Bernanke, like Greenspan before him, is the world’s most powerful individual

Some Reviews of Bernake’s speech links

Some Results

  • Stocks moved higher
  • Gold/silver moved much higher
  • The dollar fell
  • Obvious applauds for being more transparent
  • No big surprises

The press conference, of course, did nothing to change hardened critics and advocates of the Fed. Bernanke is probably very happy with outcome.

Some  major points and comments.

  • He stated -” QE #2 is ending June 30th.” PERIOD. Opinion - If things go badly there will be more liquidity injections (QE#3) perhaps at the longer end of the yield curve (longer term treasury bonds) to help mortgage rates.
  • He compared 2008 dollar lows to todays low and said the period the dollar went up in between was just a flight to quality. Opinion – Although the Fed talks a strong dollar they would allow it to go much lower. Many ramifications here, but bullish for US stocks, and very bullish for gold silver.
  • He moderately lowered GDP outlook for USA. Opinion – He’s right
  • A little bit more hawkish on inflation, but stated commodity “account for pretty much all” of the increase in inflation and focused on other reasons than Fed policy is not responsible for inflation. Opinion – There are other reasons like revolutions and a growing emerging market demand creating inflation, but the falling dollar adds to this, especially abroad.

There was good, bad and ugly side of this and every speech. Some of these details will be worked out over the next few weeks.

The bottom line just for investors – It’s bullish for US stocks, gold/silver, and commodity prices

________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.76% down
NASDQ +0.78% up
S&P 500 +0.73% down
Russell 2000 +0.62% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • The dollar fell again to another a three year low.
  • Now a mantra US dollar in clear long and short term bear run. – Good for US stocks, gold/silver and most commodities. in short term.
  • Since November Investors411 has beat the drums for bulls because of the Fed zero interest rate policy and injection of liquidity (QE2) This continues.
  • Some Reviews of Bernake’s speech links – Financial Times,  Seeking Alpha, & Reuters

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] -0.43 yesterday. Another a three year low. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to +36.71.  Getting up there but still = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

What to watch today

  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

From yesterday -  ”the call is Bullish across the board…&…It may be that a 10% correction in silver (SLV is the ETF) is all the correction we get. ” Silver/gold exploded higher, stocks rallied and the dollar fell.  YSL #4 should continue to outperform.

FutureAnything that holds onto most of the gains yesterday is bullish today. The dollar trade has easily become the most critical factor influencing equities and Fed manipulations are sending the dollar down. SLV is a juggernaut. Congratulations to all still holding SLV or AGQ.

Since QE2 began Investors411 has been far more bullish than most investment sites

This accurate policy will continue as long as the dollar gets devalued by Fed manipulations.

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Paul’s Corner

You can read Paul’s daily remarks in the comments section of the blog. Here’s his outlook on stocks

Well well well what an interesting day. That over sold rip off of a dog SLV comes in with a 5% gain after Bernanke indicates he will continue to give away the farm to the banks. Watching the last hour or so of SLV trading  it’s sure looks like the black box traders are at the controls.

-  21% (315) of the S&P 1500 stocks are now in an over bought condition, but we  are still a wee bit away from a market peak.

- Many of the oil related stocks took a hit at the open when Conoco Phillips missed estimates because of trouble in Libya. I sold NBR at the open, they reported last evening and missed estimates for  the same reason. By late afternoon many of the oil stocks did recover, but it looks like some damage has been done.

The top group in my high demand search was the  Health-Bio/Genetic group with 10 % of the top 100 high demand stocks for April 27. Here is the list, sorted in alpha order:

Health-Bio/Genetic (10.00%, 10 securities)

  • Amgen  Inc. (AMGN)
  • Biogen Idec  Inc. (BIIB)
  • Celgene Corporation (CELG)
  • Cubist Pharmaceuticals  Inc. (CBST)
  • Incyte Corporation (INCY)
  • InterMune  Inc. (ITMN)
  • Momenta Pharmaceuticals  Inc (MNTA)
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals  I (REGN)
  • United Therapeutics Corporat (UTHR)
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)

Second group  was the semis.

Semiconductor-Mfg (6.00%, 6 securities)

  • Altera Corp. (ALTR)
  • Atmel Corporation (ATML)
  • Cypress Semiconductor Corpor (CY)
  • Entropic Communications  Inc (ENTR)
  • Microchip Technology  Inc. (MCHP)
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac (TSM)

ALTR is a YSL 4 member and you could have bought it last week sitting on the 50 and you would have a 13.4% gain! (SLV has had a 9.3% gain in the same time frame so don’t think you have to chase the latest fad!)

None of the “Oil” related stocks made the top 100 list so it does appear we have some rotation going on. Many of the semis appear to be raising from the dead.

All of the major indexes finished up with gain,  the color “green” is the predominate color on the various HGSI spread sheets, positive earnings reports are coming in  and Bernanke turned on the faucets again. Happy days are here again?

Disclaimer: Please see below……

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

___________________

Positions

SeePOSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

Disclosure - I have personal  positions in REMX,  SLV (smaller), DGP, UWM, RJA and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD

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Longer Term OutlookCAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 27, 2011

Bernanke

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , ,

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.93% up
NASDQ +0.77% up
S&P 500 +0.82% up
Russell 2000 +1.04% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • The dollar fell enough yesterday to reach a three year low.
  • Repeat from yesterday (NB: all repeat phrases are in brown) - Stocks continued to have abysmal volume, despite the fact that we are in the middle of earnings season.
  • Volume was just above average and that average is down from the past. Low volume gives Fed’s quantitative easing more influence to move markets up.
  • Repeat - US dollar in clear long and short term bear run. – Good for stocks in short term.
  • The fall in the dollar is bullish for almost all commodities including gold, silver, and oil.
  • Bernanke speaking – markets don’t expect any major news, but the continuation of present policies -low interest rates and quantitative easing are key dynamics.
  • Markets expecting more of same from Bernanke and this is why they are in rally mode. From WSJ on Bernanke

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] -0.20 yesterday. Not a big fall, but enough to break down to a three year low. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to+28.63.  Getting up there but still = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

For Silver and Gold Investors – The dollar breakdown (See USD above) is one of the key catalysts behind the silver and gold trade.

Repeat from yesterday - The fundamentals, as described yesterday, have NOT changed. However, we have to wait for the bears to take a bite out of gold and silver before getting back in. Simply too many folks pilled in too quickly. Perhaps the dust will settle today/a week/ a month/ longer… I look for a shorter rather than longer meltdown.

It may be that a 10% correction in silver (SLV is the ETF) is all the correction we get.

Two Trends

  • Everything is getting compressed. We had a massive 25 – 30% run in SLV (AGQ is riskier 2x silver ETF) in April and a 10% correction in two days that may have ended the meltdown -.  Just like that what used to take weeks and even a month to work itself out may be happening in a couple days in SLV. Gold held up very well yesterday. GLD is gold ETF (DGP is riskier 2x gold ETF)
  • The dollar breakdown rulesThe dollar may not be falling like a stone, but it is breaking downThis is positive for many investment categories -gold, silver oil, commodities and stocks.

Reasoning - The rapidness and volatility of the SLV move takes your breath away. Gold should have fallen with silver and didn’t.  Frankly I expected a bigger than -4% move down in SLV yesterday. The footprints of market manipulation are all over the SLV trade. I have no idea who these entities are unlike the Fed’s manipulation of stocks through quantitative easing.   But the fundamentals remain strong for silver and gold.

For Stock Investors -

Repeat from yesterday – Bottom line is that the dollar down/stocks up trends are still in place… Bernake’s, first time Fed chair speaks after a FOMC meeting, on Wednesday is a market mover. Markets are expecting Bernanke to stay the course – this is BULLISH. You may see some selling on the news after the speech.

We are still a bubblicious market juiced  by Fed liquidity.

Technically major indexes have formed a powerful inverse head and shoulders trading pattern and a breakout here is bullish

So I’m out on a limb hereBut the call is Bullish across the board. Only major problem is if Bernanke and Fed make a dramatic change and throw a monkey wrench into investors expectations.

Arnold’s back, and he was only gone for a day. – The dollar is breaking down to lows and stocks breaking out to highs. I’m not making a big investment in stocks, because the MO is too high, but cautiously nibbling on (especially on a dip)

  • UWM (2x small cap stocks) again as a longer term investments.
  • GLD slower and steadier than SLV. SLV is riskier or for those that love great risk AGQ are options, but I’m going to wait a day or three on SLV. (MO relevant to stocks, but not as relevant to silver, gold, or rare earth metals)
  • REMX – Buying any dip – Will try to add to Rare Earth Metals ETF’s. If you know how to read a candlestick chart you’ll see investors have bought the dip for the last 6 trading sessions – usually a bullish sign.
  • See YOUR Stock List for other options

What to watch today - For shorter term traders – Market movers. UUP is key

  • USO ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down.
  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

CautionBecause of Low volume,  and high frequency trades, its very easy for entities from the Fed to hedge funds to manipulate prices Quantitative Easing is one huge manipulation of stocks (higher).

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. The actively managed portfolios #3 &4 - Aggressive ETF Trading & Your Stock List.

Disclosure - I have personal  positions in REMX,  SLV (smaller) RJA and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 26, 2011

When did Democracy die?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

DSC00109

Photo from Common Dreams

Chris Hedges is a graduate of Harvard Divinity School and a 2 decade long correspondent for the NYT – also CSM, DMN, & NPR. The Acadamy Award Winning Film – The Hurt Locker opened with a quote from a Hedges’ book.

One can defend may things about capitalism. However, Hedges writes a potent editorial that starts -

When did our democracy die?”

You may think this introduction is over the top, because the fact that I’m bringing you his words shows that the flame of democracy still burns. However,  Hedges does make many substantive points that are thought provoking.

  • When did the press, labor, universities, the Democratic part.. wither and atrophy”
  • Is “corporate power” … “inverted totalitarianism?”
  • Over decades – “a massive redistribution of wealth.”
  • “These [corporate] elites do not have a vision [of democracy] . They know only one word—more.”
  • The money quote -

although the heads of state or elected officials in Congress have become largely irrelevant. Lobbyists write the bills. Lobbyists get them passed. Lobbyists make sure you get the money to be elected. And lobbyists employ you when you get out of office. Those who hold actual power are the tiny elite who manage the corporations

What do YOU think?

Is Democracy Dead?

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.21% down
NASDQ +0.20% down
S&P 500 -0.16% down
Russell 2000 -0.17% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • All eyes on silver trade yesterday and today as climax buying (LINK to definition) reached a peak yesterday and a meltdown in foreign markets this AM.
  • Stocks continued to have abysmal volume, despite the fact that we are in the middle of earnings season.
  • Low volume gives Fed’s quantitative easing more influence to move markets up.
  • US dollar in clear long and short term bear run. – Good for stocks in short term.
  • Good contrarian article on the possibility of a dollar rally. This would hurt stocks. Do see possibility of short term rally.
  • News of the week  - Bernanke speaking after the Fed Meeting Wednesday (Thanks to EW for mentioning this in comment section of blog)
  • What investors want to hear from Bernanke is more quantitative easing or QE 3.
  • The big longer term news is the ramification if the dollar continues to fall (See editorial above)

________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   -0.17 yesterday. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Fell to +10.47. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

For Silver and Gold investors - Obviously  these commodities went elliptical or had a climax run. or a blowoff top yesterday. Translation – So many investors bought silver that it ran out of buyers. See SLV chart below and look at the big volume SLV on last Thursday & Friday and the record massive volume yesterday. Look at how far above its 50 day moving average (blue line on chart) SLV is.

Silver is the leader and gold went along for the ride. So it too is taking a hit in sympathy with silver.

Since its peak Sunday night SLV is down almost 10% as I write.

The fundamentals, as described yesterday, have not changed. However, we have to wait for the bears to take a bite out of gold and silver before getting back in. Simply too many folks pilled in too quickly. Perhaps the dust will settle today/a week/ a month/ longer. This is much harder to predict than a climax run. Because the fundamentals are so strong, I look for a shorter rather than longer meltdown.

For Stock Investors – It’s the middle of earnings season and volume was abysmal. That means the Fed’s quantitative easing rules and the bulls have the momentum. One very significant point is the dollar did not rally as silver fell from yesterday’s high. Perhaps it will today and this will negatively impact stocks. Sometimes there is a delayed reaction.

Bottom line is that the dollar down/stocks up trends are still in place, but may be in correction for the next day or two. Bernake’s, first time Fed chair speaks after a FOMC meeting, on Wednesday is a market mover.

For long term traders and everyone –  Arnold, the Terminator’s, famous words for gold/silver – “ I’ll be back” invested in silver/gold. We had a year’s run compressed into a month.

The learning part of all of this is sell into a climax run. Judging from the comments section lots of you did just that.

CONGRATULATIONS

NB – Check out chart of REMX. (Rare Earth Metals) It too had a climax run around New Years day. It reached a high of  @27, then and is now over 28. Consolidating gains after breaking out to a new high.

What to watch today - For shorter term traders – Market movers.

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down.
  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA.
  • SLVWent elliptical and in meltdown

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. The actively managed portfolios #3 &4 - Aggressive ETF Trading & Your Stock List.

Check out YOUR Stock List. - 6 or 7 of the 15 stocks are at highs

Disclosure – I have personal  positions in REMX,  SLV (small covered call position@ $40) RJA and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. SeePOSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 25, 2011

Dollars, Gold & Silver

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

silver

Is the dollar collapsing?

Is gold/silver the new world currency?

Worldwide there may be a quantum shift happening as the world shifts from a manipulated currency(ies) to gold/silver or a more tangible monetary base.

The single news item that may be the final straw was a Chinese banker announcing that “China should cap forex reserves at $1.3 trillion U.S. dollars.” China currently has $3.04 trillion invested in US dollars.

This has set off some massive buying of silver and gold across Asia last night – putting jet packs on the already soaring gold and silver prices.

The Trend - The US dollar has been the fiat currency for the world and that is changing. Why?

  • We run a massive shadow banking system that has NOT been fixed
  • We run an over extended military empire. Fastest growing part of our debt.
  • We have massive debt.
  • We have growing economic inequity between upper and lower classes
  • We have ideologically based political system that fear mongers and shouts instead of seeking solutions

Quite simply the average Joe and Jane across the world are saying do I want to invest in this mess – represented by the dollar?

or

Something more tangible and less corrupt, like gold or silver – It shines.

I’m not saying we are going over the edge into the abyss and I strongly doubt that the dollar is going to go the way of Zimbabwe currency.  But there is dramatic change happening and its happening NOW

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In answer to one of your emails – No Investors411 has not become a gold & silver blog – I just want you to be aware of the trend and the geopolitical ramifications. This trend is VERY related to politics.

Also I hope you make some profit from investing.

___________

Special thanks to RF for sending in a list of Bernie Sander’s Top 10 corporate freeloaders who pay Little to NO taxes or link here

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.42% down
NASDQ +0.63% down
S&P 500 +0.53% down
Russell 2000 +0.74% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Gold and the much more volatile silver have exploded higher this AM across the world (see above editorial)
  • To curb this speculation the Shanghai Gold Exchange has raised margins on silver futures.
  • Don’t worry if you don’t understand the above. It’s governments (in this case China in the lead) trying to stop panic buying of silver.
  • Dow hit a high last Friday and if other indexes break out of their trading patterns its a strong bullish move. (These indexes formed a reverse head and shoulders pattern)
  • For the time being, as long as Fed continues to dump money into economy – buying on dips and holding remains the trend. Investors411 has been CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH since November (with only a few days back to NEUTRAL)


________________

.

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   Major question is as silver/gold rises like a rocket is the dollar going to collapse?
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Irrelevant today

________________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

From 4/13 – Debt ceiling Republican soap opera politics in Washington could really hurt stocks. Question becomes will US default? Investors hate uncertainty and this is yet another bond holder to get out of treasuries. – “stocks” was the wrong word – It may help in the short run, but it could hurt the US far worse in the long run. Just another reason for people to panic into gold/silver.

What to Hope for todayThe move in gold/silver is really a a climax sell off and NOT the start of a major worldwide currency panic which turns the dollar into toilet paper.

Gold/silver – great profits (+15 to 50+%) for those of you who bought GLD, SLV, DGP, AGQ at the start of the month. The fundamentals behind this trade have NOT changed. No one ever went broke selling into what just about every technical analyst on the planet sees as a climax selling.

Bottom Line – However, the gold/silver fundamentals have not changed.  The oligarchy that rules in the USA has not changed. Buying  dips in  gold/silver has is still a good long term play. Just remember silver is very volatile

What to watch today - For shorter term traders – Market movers.

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA.
  • SLV – Going elliptical

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. The actively managed portfolios #3 &4 - Aggressive ETF Trading & Your Stock List can be found in the POSITIONS Section of blog

I have personal  positions in REMX,  SLV, GLD, (smaller positions bought on 4/13) EWV, (Note – sold EWV for profit last week) In fact, the single largest investment for a non profit I’m the treasurer of is GLD for the past 5 years.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 15, 2011

Relax

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

RelaxInvestors411 is taking a break

Will be back on 4/25 Some links and comments below

  • No change in general market outlookStill bubblicious and CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH If we close below last weeks low outlook changes to NEUTRAL
  • Short term bearish tend, still in place as of closing on Friday even though we’ve had three days of slight gains.
  • For the top 3 investments for the 2nd quarter LINK HERE (scroll down)
  • For YOUR Stock List - LINK HERE (scroll down)
  • For information on all suggested portfolios LINK HERE (scroll down)
  • For why we are Investors in Wonderland LINK HERE (scroll down)
  • For a message to my fellow cows LINK HERE (scroll down)
  • Our proven indicator of an oversold or overbought market has been the McClellan Oscillator (+/- 60 a rough guide)

Be sure to check out the comments section for Paul’s enlightened comments on the markets.

Reading The Tea Leaves

June 30th is the date that the Fed’s quantitative easing is “supposed” to end. The zero% interest rates and QE has forced anyone seeking higher returns into stocks or junk bonds.

Markets will have a growing supply of $ till then and even if it does completely shut down that supply of money will still be in the economy. So as both the stimulus (Obama compromise) winds down and “supposedly” QE 2 ends we loose the money supply that has driven stocks higher.

Two major questions arise.

  • Will frightened investors front run June 30th and yank their money out? - This would be shown by a big  INCREASE in volume on down days for the stock market – This has not happened yet.
  • Once QE 2 ends, who will buy our treasury bonds? We’ve already seen Pimco (largest private US bond company) get out of treasuries. I agree with the group that thinks that if a storm comes after June 30th the Fed will be forced into some other kind QE.

On another matter

Friday night Goldman Sach’s Jan Hatzius again dropped GDP outlook for USA from 3.5% at start of year to 2.5% a few weeks ago and 1.75% Friday night. Aside – yes GS is a Vampire Squid (link is yet another example) but most of the time someone from GS or their protegee has run treasury and many key financial  post in the White House for over a decade. They have the inside info. While this downgrade hurts the USA economically, emerging market growth is far more critical to globalized US stocks.


AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 14, 2011

Top 3 Investments for 2nd 1/4

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Rolling Stone Photo – Wall Street Wives

If you haven’t taken your blood pressure medication this AM – Please take an extra dose before reading below.

Wall Street WivesMatt Taibbi from the Rolling Stone has come up with another jaw dropper. Remember Geithner and Bernanke’s Wall Street Bailout. Seems that the “wives of   JPMorgan bigwigs walked away with $220 million dollars.Opening line of editorial – “Most Americans know about that budget. What they don’t know is that there is another budget of roughly equal heft, traditionally maintained in complete secrecy

The Closing Government Soap Opera. – Remember all the media attention of the $38 billion the Republicans were supposedly cutting from the budget. Two days ago the press went bananas when they found out it was only $14 billion. Yesterday the non partisan CBO put the actual figure at $353 million. Yes, that’s million with an M.

Crony Capitalism - It’s simply not fair to put the blame on the real housewives of of Wall Street or JPM. Now that the Fed was forced to open its books we find out the real husbands at Goldman Sachs got (See Matt Taibbi’s piece) $800 billion from the Fed. Yes, that’s billion with a B.

Get out of Jail Free - The US Treasury Department actually used hash language toward shadow bankers in a sternly worded proclamation Remember the phony foreclosures, robocalls etc. reveled months ago. Billions evaporated thousands lost their homes. Bankers got a tender tap in their wrists. The NYT has finally caught on and its headline story is on No one from Wall Street goes to Jail

GE is to return $3.2 billion tax rebates!? The whole AP story turned out to be a hoax. YOU pay taxes, GE doesn’t. – Bummer

The Prestigious Pinocchio Award. The Japanese government has been less than than honest about the nuclear reactor situation. FYI – TEPCO has just confirmed reactor 4 is open air fussionYANKEE BOB is back in the comments section (scroll down) with an editorial. Here’s a sample – “the gamble with public safety to use Nuclear energy to boil water has failed.”

Maybe we’re more than just a morsal for Wall Street sharks. EW in the comments sections saw Obama’s deficit speech as hopeful – Obama quotes “There’s nothing serious about a plan that claims to reduce the deficit by spending a trillion dollars on tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires,” …. “There’s nothing courageous about asking for sacrifice from those who can least afford it and don’t have any clout on Capitol Hill. And this is not a vision of the America I know.”

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Today a format change to focus more time on three investments for the 2nd quarter. But first here’s market news

  • Fed’s ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) & QE 2 is sustaining stock rally and forces anyone who wants a high yield is forces into higher risk stocks,  or junk bonds.
  • Yesterday’s action was no more than a pause (slight uptick) and we’re close, but haven’t reached oversold levels or a buy the dip level yet
  • Paul often makes closing remarks in the comments section of the blog. From yesterday – “If any of you folks like to study the charts, you’ll see on many of the major indicies a clear “double top’ and that often signals coming hell fire and brimstone’s”

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Three Top Investment Areas

Rare Earth Metals - REMX (link to chart)

REMX is the ETF that tracks the major rare earth metal companies. Most data below is from Van Eck Global owner of REMX ETF.

This is a simple supply/demand story. The demand outstrips the supply. China currently provides 97% of rare earth metal production. InDec. of 2010 China announced it would cut exports of rare earth metals 35% because to keep some for their own use. REMX has only 17% exposure to china. It takes a long time to mine these metals so many of the companies REMX invest in have yet to become major producers. Obviously the companies/mines outside China are ramping up production as fast as possible.

Some applications for Rare earth metals include hybrid cars,steel alloys, wind turbines, flat screen TV’s, jet engines & cell phones. So you can understand the demand.

Downside risk – If we fall into a second recession or depression REMX will suffer. However it should outperform because of the supply/demand issue.

Gold - GLD & DGP (2x or ultra long gold)(both ticker symbols are links to charts)

GLD & DGP (2X) are the ETF’s that track gold prices. Obviously DGP carries twice the risk/reward.

Arguably the #1 source for gold information is GFMS Reuters last week featured their supply/demand analysis on both gold and silver. The fundamentals are relevant, but we all know, gold prices move higher on fear of the future.

I follow Jesse’s Cafe Americain on both gold and silver. The technical analysis and inside information is superb. In the future Investors411 will give updates from this site.

SilverSLV & AGQ (2x silver) (both ticker symbols are links to charts)

SLV & AGQ are the ETF’s that track silver prices. Obviously AGQ carries twice the risk/reward.

Silver has more industrial uses. Links to important information on silver above.

If you are considering investing in this area or just want a good laugh you have to watch one of the two bears videos on silver. “You want me to buy more silver? Holy s–t man I’m going to s–t my pants.”

Paul would be a great source on individual gold, silver and rare earth companies if you are interested ask. MCP is the one company that I like in rare earth field. We almost put this on YOUR Stock List #4, but decided REMX would cover the sector.

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. The actively managed portfolios #3 &4 - Aggressive ETF Trading & Your Stock List can be found in the POSITIONS Section of blog

I have personal  positions in REMX, RJA, SLV, EWV, (Note – sold UWM into rally) In fact the single largest investment for a non profit I’m the treasurer of is GLD for the past 5 years.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 13, 2011

The King Kong Deficit Creator

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

So, you going to ignore him?

Tax and Spending

Since Obama and the Republicans answer to the shadow bank, military/industrial and other business cartels in Washington it is important to get get a more unbiased point of view on the budget. Here’s one from today’s NYT. Tax and Spending Myth and Realities A must read since  the cartels dominate the flow of information.

Military/Industrial Cartel

Just how powerful and dominate is this cartel? Their budget has gone up a staggering 81% in the last ten years.  Nothing comes close to creating debt like the military budget yet they are so powerful a cartel that neither Obama, the Republicans or the media address the problem in a substantive way.

The $700 billion yearly usually used as an approximation of the  defense department’s budget is as phoney as a three dollar bill.

  • Foreign wars (Iraq, Afghanistan) are treated as supplemental budget items and not included
  • Veterans affairs are not counting in this budget, yet this is closing in on 8.5% of total budget.
  • Homeland Security (almost 3%) is not part of this budget and so are other smaller related military expenditures.
  • Since programs like Social Security are paid for with their own tax or fees and are currently in the black they are not part of the growing federal deficit.  If you eliminate these programs as debt contributors, the military budget alone wind up contributing over 50% of the growing national debt. Some put this figure much higher

So if we take the $1,000,000,000,000+ military budget and increase it by 81% growth over the next 10 years you come up with a $4 to $6 trillion dollar increase over the next ten years that almost every politician in the USA ignores.

You’ve seen Republican’s ignore the King Kong of deficit creators in the Room (far bigger than the 800 lbs. gorilla) and today you will see Obama in a speech to the nation virtually ignore it.


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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.95% up
NASDQ -0.96% down
S&P 500 -0.78% up
Russell 2000 -1.39% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more. Remember Fed liquidity (POMO, QE 2 or quantitative easing) announced ending is June 30th.

  • This is different. What has been a 3/4 day market correction has happened in light volume. Used to be we rallied in light volume and sold off in heavy volume.
  • The dollar , oil and MO have fallen significantly and the likelihood of at least a technical rebound is growing (see below)
  • Republicans seem to want to play politics with the Debt Ceiling. This could have a significant negative impact on stocks. More on this in later Investors411. Surprised the Wall Street part of the Republican party seems to be caving into the Tea Party wing on this.
  • The key to US equities remains how accommodative the Fed can be. If it is limited by the debt ceiling or something else – watch out below. Everything will suffer.
  • Fed announces POMO schedule though May 14. $80 billion, plus a second program of $17 billion. Can’t help but wonder if this second program will continue beyond the supposed end June 30th. Analysts very divided on a QE #3(more quantitative easing after June 30th)

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   Dollar fell moderately yesterday -0.23%.  The trend since start of year is bearish with lower highs and lower lows on chart, We are at a lower low.  For stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -51.72. Almost oversold. = Neutral/Bullish

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.

Reading The Tea Leaves

From yesterday – “Looks like we are in for a correction. The dip last month took the MO down to -85 (see link to chart above)” and in past has gone as low as -135.MO at -51.72 now

Bottom Line  Till it Breaks DownNo Black Swan events have been able to seriously impact the Fed liquidity driven equity market. So we are nearing a buy the dip territory.

The dollar at a low, oil prices plummeting last 2 days, and the MO nearing oversold levels shows we are ready for a rebound. If oil , the dollar & stocks continue to fall I will buy the dip. The further the better. This may only be a short term play (day, days, a week, or more).

Debt ceiling Republican soap opera politics in Washington could really hurt stocks. Question becomes will US default? Investors hate uncertainty and this is yet another bond holder to get out of treasuries.

This could kill the duration of the expected rally higher.

What to watch today – For shorter term traders Market movers.

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down – Big hit in last two days – for stocks – Bullish
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks. Now bullish
  • AAPL – Tech giant and market mover – Trading below its 50 DMA. Since mid February this char shows a series of lower highs and lower lows. AAPL rebounded yesterday. Perhaps the start of a rebound rally? Still, overall = Bearish
  • Japan Rector Developments - This keeps getting worse.
  • EEM – Emerging market ETF – On a breakout run, but getting  way over extended and now correcting.

.

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. The actively managed portfolios #3 &4 – Aggressive ETF Trading & Your Stock List can be found in the POSITIONS Section of blog

I have positions in REMX, RJA, SLV, EWV,UWM

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 12, 2011

Japan goes Chernobyl

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Japan Aftershock

Moment of Silence in Japan

Japan Goes Chernobyl

For a month Investors411 has been telling you that this disaster is far worse than expected. Japan has now upgraded the Nuclear disaster from level 5 to level 7. Level 7 is the worst.

Here’s a Nuclear Expert Tuur Demeester, whose been on the cover of Time Magazine editorial titled “Spent Fuel Pools in US are a potential time bomb, situation can get worse than Chernobyl”

To give you an idea of the scope of Chernobyl here’s the Wikipedia map of currently impacted areas

Jan Hatzius

GS’s Jan Hatzius

Goldman Sachs Stomps on Commodities

GS & JP Morgan are the two shadow banks with the most power. When they  say jump and Obama (also most other polls and related monetary officials) says how high. The shadow bank cartel along with the military industrial cartel are the two most powerful entities in the USA today.

Yesterday the IMF lowered its global growth picture and GS stomped on commodities. Thanks to Paul for info on the first and one of you who gets the GS announcements for the second. Here’s the money quote that was posted in the comments section of the blog yesterday

“We are closing our CCCP basket trade, first recommended on December 1, 2010, for a gain of roughly 25% against our 28% target. This recommendation was premised on our belief that Crude Oil, Copper, Cotton/Soybeans and Platinum remain the key structurally supply-constrained markets. On a 12-month horizon we believe the CCCP basket still has upside potential, but the unrest in the Middle-East and North Africa region, and the potential for further supply shocks pushed the basket up significantly in a short period and our Commodity Research team believes that in the near term the risk/reward no longer favours being long the basket and consequently, we are closing the recommendation with good potential gains. While crude oil, cotton and copper prices have substantially exceeded our targets, platinum and soybean prices have lagged.”

Earlier in the year Investors411 brought you GS call for 2011. Their chief economist, Jan Hatzius, is perhaps the most powerful economist in the financial world


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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.01% down
NASDQ -0.45% up
S&P 500 -0.28% down
Russell 2000 -0.84% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more. Remember Fed liquidity (POMO, QE 2 or quantitative easing) announced ending is June 30th.

  • The Goldman Sachs note (bearish on some top commodity plays in short term) well describes an outlook that could hold investors attention today too. But, all leaders , including emerging markets took it on the overbought chin yesterday.
  • As Paul has pointed out earnings season is around the corner.
  • If you want a complete update on today’s stock news – here’s seeking Alpha’s senior editor. -Japan is the lead = Bearish

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   Dollar rose moderately yesterday +0.26%. However longer term trend since start of year is bearish with lower highs and lower lows on chart, We are at a lower low. In shorter term we probably will form a lower high, so thats bearish for stocks. But longer term - For stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -28.36.  Getting close to overbought, but still = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Looks like we are in for a correction. The dip last month took the MO down to -85 (see link to chart above) Since the MO is compiled at the end of the day you have to guesstimate where it will end up. Usually a 1 to 2% loss is good for about a 30 point drop.

Bottom Line – No Black Swan events have been able to seriously impact the Fed liquidity driven equity market. So we are nearing a buy the dip territory.

What to watch today – For shorter term traders Market movers - UUP (the dollar) still has most influential, unless others make some huge move like Japan’s announcement – Irony is if the Fed were not dumping money the Japanese move has the potential to devastate world economics.

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya show stalemate and slight recovery for reels.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Tech giant and market mover – Trading below its 50 DMA. Since mid February this char shows a series of lower highs and lower lows = Bearish
  • Japan Rector Developments – This keeps getting worse.
  • EEM – Emerging market ETF – On a breakout run, but getting  way over extended and now correcting.

.

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

This  is a repeat from early last week – Will place this list in Positions section.

Below are the recommended ETF’s/ETN’s for the 2nd Quarter

  • Since many of these choices are not directly related to stocks on the NYSE the MO & the Dollar may influence them differently.
  • Buy the dip is a recommended strategy (Investors411 likes the 17, and 50 DM’s) Especially don’t buy when stock is too far above 17 DMA
  • A 7% to 10% trailing stop loss is recommended
  • World events impact these sectors
  • Investors411 believes these sectors should outperform the S&P 500 now through June 30
  • Investors411 expects, baring a change in world events, a higher S&P 500 on June 30th.  Emerging markets and US small caps stocks are especially vulnerable to any meltdown of the S&P.
  • You can use part or all of list.
  • Note - I own SLV, REMX, UWM,RJA, EWV, and plan to own ILF on a dip. Sold UCO yesterday down 7% from high. Very sad for Japan, but selfishly happy to own EWV (ultra short Japan ETF)


UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. Historically driving season in summer drives prices up in the late spring. Supply problems exist because of revolutions/instability in oil producing countries. If these problems are resolved then UCO should NOT be held.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding.  Simply put because of limited supply of rare earth metals and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. Only some sort of major economic collapse will hurt this sector. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) and/or SLV (silver). AGQ (2x silver) Both inflation worries and a falling dollar positively impact this sector. Silver actually has a manufacturing component.

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS

UWM (2x small cap stocks) or TNA (3X small cap stocks) The later for more aggressive traders. Closest correlation to MO and falling dollar. Small cap stocks are outperforming.

EEM (emerging markets) and/or ILF (Latin America) EDC (3X emerging markets) The later for most aggressive traders. Emerging markets are leading the world and after underperforming for years they are back.

EWV (ultra short Japan) The horrific and tragic situation there has been minimized. This holding acts in part as a hedge especially for US small cap stocks and emerging markets.

TMV (3x 20+ year Treasury yields)

A winning hedge has been UWM & EWV combination (some of you may have problems emotionally shorting Japan)

ROM (2x techs) & TYH (3x techs) The later for most aggressive traders.–  Technology has been toasted and if the S&P is higher on June 30th, this sector should catchup.

I’ll keep this on the blog’s home page for a week or two then place it ion the Positions page.

.

_________________

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.

Paul has an excellent strategy on when to buy dips – See his postings in comments section throughout the day – These apply to ETF’s also

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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April 11, 2011

Hyper Inflation

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: ,

Pixelscared

Photo from a Wired editorial about FEAR being contagious.

Hyper Inflation

Hyper Inflation Fears spread throughout Wall Street last week.  Early Last week Investors411 turned the list of recommended ETF’s into longer term holdings. Many of these ETF’s were recommended because they are hedges against inflation.
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Investors readers have followed the Fed’s liquidity dump (quantitative easing) and its relationship to possible future inflation. Now along comes a single factor that makes inflation transparent. One photo tells it all.
For investors those hedges against inflation are UCO (2X long oil), SLV (silver) AGQ (2X long silver) GLD, (gold) DGP (2X long gold) and TMV (3X long 20+ year Treasury yields) All these ETF’s exploded higher last week. Example GLD up +3.6%

Other recommend ETF’s flattened like pan cakes at the end of the week because of their vulnerability to inflation REMX (rare earth metals), UWM (small cap stocks) & EEM (emerging markets)

As Paul accurately points out in the comments section many of these are way overbought and may be in climax runs. In the past, the Fed’s guarantee of liquidity has distorted traditional technical analysis and added to inflation fears.  Truckloads of Fed money have a way of doing that.

However if a stock is too far above its 17 day moving average (see chart) wait for a dip to buy. If you’re a short term trader it becomes a time to sell. You can be sure there are lots of investors waiting to buy, so the dip may not be too sever.

The CautionIf KA DAFFY is nailed then oil prices and inflation fears will temporarily fall (could be a big hit) So will the related ETF’s that are on fire now. However in the long term inflation is being driven by the Fed and gas prices just add to those fears.

  • Also its good to be long some issues like YSL #4, and/or UWM to hedge a reversal in inflation expectations.
  • UUP (ETF for dollar is ) is what to watchGetting very nervous because the dollar fell a significant -0.96% on Friday.
  • Back to a more standard format tomorrow.

NB – If the dollar drops again today/tomorrow like last Friday the fear could to turn to inflation PANIC.

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Your Stock List results are in.

As of last week it was up +3.51% to the S&P’s +1.55% Paul has created an excellent  a detailed analysis of all 15 stocks stocks HERE

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog (at top of

page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.


Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING


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