Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
May 26, 2011

YOUR Comments

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Mark Haines

Mark Haines

YOUR Comments

Once again YOUR Comments is perhaps the most interesting/informative part of the Investors blog. Everything from investment concepts to political editorials/trends is covered there.

Of special note is a tribute to a tribute to legendary financial reporter Mark Haines who died yesterday started by JS

Link Here (scroll down to read comments)

Today’s from comments has another editorial from Yankee Bob.

Never in my wildest dreams could I envision a Party that is as anti-American as the GOP is They have served themselves up for sacrifice IF AND ONLY IF THE DEMS CAN ACT AT LEAST A LITTLE LIKE THE PARTY OF FDR ….

1. Raising taxes. They won’t raise taxes on the rich or corporations but they WILL raise taxes on services they hate like Abortions Why can’t we have a minimim corporate tax that they can’t squirm out of or why can’t you tax corporate profits earned in the US. You want to declare yourself as owned offshore,..fine. But why can’t your US revenue be taxed here except  that the GOP will be against it.

2.  They are against gov regulation. Disaster in the Gulf. Disaster in Massey Mines. Disaster on Wall St. That’s what less regulation gets you.Their willfull desire for less regulation brings death from food pathogens

3. They are actually clamoring for lifting rerictions on child labor. It’s astonishing. What would that be for except to lower wages.

4. they are against ending the Wars.The Wars that waste trillions of dollars with absolutely NOTHING to show for it. Iraq is still a mess,and Afghanistan is still little changed. If those trillions had been spent on Domestic Infrastructure, then we would  have low  unemployment and a booming economy and good roads,bridges, dams,schools,parks mass transit . The money was spent on GOP wars. We have nothing to show for it but a bloated deficit and a bad economy.

It doesn’t have to be that way but,the GOP demands it. The same money spent on domestic infrastructure,education,transportation  alternative energy projects, and healthcare would have transformed the us into a vibrant dynamo. Couple that with increased tax on the wealthy and making corporations actually pay their share, reducing the defense budget would balance the budget.

Do you realize that the Defense spending has doubled since the fall of the Soviet Union? What a waste! Do you feel safer. Any nut with a pack of matches can burn most of the West but we spend billions on anti-terrorism. On What. Air cargo is still not inspected. Incoming cargo in our ports is scarcely looked at. If the terrorists are so plentiful and represent such a grave threat,…then they certainly haven’t done much.  My dog shows more ambition and determination then they have.

Yankee Bob


Systemic Risk That

Threatens Global Economy

Japan- The amount of radiation spewing from the broken nuclear reactors will soon top Chernobyl. Yesterday had the highest readings yet recorded from reactor #1

Europe’s weak economiesThe financial stability of these countries keeps growing - Story LINK

The problem here is the trend. News keeps getting worse and the solutions used to fix the wounds don’t always work.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up aInvestopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.31% Down
NASDQ +0.55% Up
S&P 500 +0.32% Up
Russell 2000 +1.30% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • Yesterday a rumor of Fed POMO #3 spread around 3 PM EST and stocks shot higher. Then the rally collapsed when it became just a rumor. This illustrated again how closely tied stock market bulls are tied to Fed liquidity.
  • Historically, trading decreases before a holiday weekend. So next Tuesday becomes the pivotal day.
  • UUP (the dollar ETF) still the index to watch. In the globalized world, when the goes dollar down stocks movie higher. Why? – It means our goods are cheaper abroad and theirs more expensive here. The dollar’s fall/weakness has been a major factor in stocks moving higher. All this is obviously linked to the Fed’s liquidity injections creating more $ and therefore weakening our currency. [Investors411 will has and will keep repeating the above mantra, because its so important to US equities and greatly impacts and improving US economy]
  • From Yesterday – Reading Tea Leaves -  Getting a little more bearish each day. However still believe and oversold bounce is likely, especially if/as the MO falls below -60 and we reach the 1295 support level.  Right now it looks like any bounce will just be another lower high. Sure looks like the call for bounce is happening.
  • Reading The Tea LeavesHolding with short term prediction of oversold bounce (see MO & US Dollar forecasts below) and bears asserting themselves as we get closer to and beyond June 30th.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocksDollar was flat yesterday -0.01%.  Since late April we have been in a bullish trend and established two higher highs and now a higher low. The dollar is the key index to watch and has a strong inverse correlation with socks. Trend for stocks = Bearish/Neutral (More Bearish than neutral)
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO was basically flat. Closing price  -28.43 Yesterday Investors411 mentioned that stocks in April bounced off a low of just above -50. The same bounce seems to have started now.  Short term trend = Bullish/Neutral

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Paul’s Corner

As expected we had a bounce Wednesday. Silver up another 3.2%, US Oil up 1.7% and the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index up 1.3%  The S&P 500 up 0.3%. The small caps, aka “risk trade” lead they way. The oil stocks are moving up once again. Most indexes where up all afternoon and volume a bit higher than normal which is good. Is this the end of the correction or just a bounce?

The following group indexes all were up today with a decent move up through their Bollinger bands.

  • Trvl&Leisr-Gaming Index (INDEX)
  • Health-Products Index (INDEX)
  • Office Supplies&Equip Index (INDEX)
  • Comp-Educ/Enter Index (INDEX)
  • Health-Instruments Index (INDEX)
  • Retail-Jewelry Index (INDEX)
  • Chem-Speciality Index (INDEX)
  • BusSvc-Cml Printing Index (INDEX)
  • Comp-Financial Index (INDEX)
  • Health-Dent/Med Sup&Svc Index (INDEX)
  • Health-Bio/Genetic Index (INDEX)
  • Constr-Mobile/RV Index (INDEX)
  • Retail-Mail Order Index (INDEX)
  • Comp-Networks Index (INDEX)
  • Container Prod Index (INDEX)
  • Hsld-Furn/Office Index (INDEX)
  • Enrg-O&G Equip Index (INDEX)
  • Chem-Fertilizer Index (INDEX)

Here is how Your Stock List looked at the close yesterday.

  • SPRD jumped 8.6% closed on the 50 DMA
  • LYB up 4.63% with the oils, closed above the 50, buyable
  • BEXP up 4.44% with the oils, below the 50 above the 17 buyable
  • CPHD up 3.75% closed above the 17 in buying range
  • KSU up 3.3% mostly white candles the past 8 days, all green indicators
  • POT up 2.68% Below the 50 chart does NOT say buy at the moment
  • RVBD up 2.57% above the 17
  • PCLN up 1.61% chart still breaking down, most indicators red
  • ABC up 1.49% sitting just below the 17, basing
  • ALTR up 1.46% below the 17, above the 50 basing
  • RNOW up 1.32% below the 17  and the 50
  • ADTN up 1.27% appears to have settled down into a basing period, at the 50
  • SKWS up 0.32%, not buyable, on the 200
  • SAP up 0.35% broken down below the 50
  • JNPR up 0.14% Woof!
  • BIDU up 0.28% the mighty BIDU appears to be breaking down, NOT buyable
  • IMAX down 0.04% sell off with a hammer candle stick, usually a bounce after a hammer.

So what’s the market going to do today? Let’s load up Quote Tracker………here we go folks another day of fun!

Chart review is for education and NOT a stock recommendation.  Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I’m sure not going to.

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Positions

SLV and AGQ had another excellent day. Often, technically,  when stocks/ETF’s gap higher for the third time in a row it means exhaustion or they have temporarily run out of buyers. So if silver again gaps higher at open you could see a reversal. Very tempted to take 1/2  the profits into rally and let the rest ride.

Disclosure – I have a long term position in GLD for a senior center account I manage  and member of my family. I also own some SLV from a covered call position bought over two months ago. I own every position in the hypothetical Investors portfolio which now consists of SLV & REMX

CautionAGQ (2X leveraged silver ETF) does not exactly tracks silver. There are opening and closing distortions. Contact me if you want to know more. Same for ZSL(double short silver) DGP is double long gold – for those that like great risk

Last warning on YSL.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 25, 2011

Victory/Medicare

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Kathy Hochul U.S House (NY-26)

A Tide Turns

Last night as the crowd chanted MEDICARE,MEDICARE, MEDICARE Democrat Kathy Hochul proclaimed victory in a heavily Republican district in her race for congress. THE issue was Republican Paul Ryan’s plan on Medicare. Investors411 has already reviewed Ryan’s unpopular voucher plan that the non partisan CBO says will cost you more and cover less.

Her 5+% decisive win in a district that has a 6+% majority of Republicans is covered by Politico and Huffington Post There was a third Tea Party (former Democrat) candidate in the race who got 9% of the vote, but polls showed as his support tumbled Hochul’s rose.

So Democrats have an issue for the 2012 election. Headline from NYT Democrat Wins G.O.P. Seat; Rebuke Seen to Medicare Plan

None of this is going to matter unless we first educate and find decent jobs for working Americans.

None of this will matter if politicians from both parties keep bowing before a corporate oligarchy that feeds off the public trough to the tune of trillions of dollars. Example – Fed has quietly purchased about $2.5 trillion in toxic assets using Maiden Lane program.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.20% Down
NASDQ -0.46% Up
S&P 500 -0.08% Up
Russell 2000 -0.46% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • Stocks added to Monday’s big loss again in light volume. There is a lot of  popular IPO’s this week and this is one reason volume is lacking for regular stocks. Also perhaps the coming holiday. But it does break a pattern of heavy volume declines followed by light volume rallies.
  • You have to start to wonder if the Fed POMO liquidity is now starting to stand on the sidelines, because of the June 30th closing date for quantitative easing. The jury is out on this, but the trend seems troubling for bulls
  • The gold/silver trade is technically back. (see chart) This trade is predicated on fears for the future as well as a whole bunch of speculators and manipulators doing their thing. It’s very unusual a bullish pattern emerges so soon after a climax sell off, so be careful.
  • 1295 is the technical line in the sand for benchmark S&P 500. It is currently at 1313. All major indexes are trading below their 50 day moving averages. Do holding up the best.
  • UUP (the dollar ETF) still the index to watch.
  • Nine reasons to Own Dividend Stocks Investors411 believes diversity should be part of any portfolio. Dividend stocks, as a whole are out performers of the S&P 500. While these stocks can be held for longer periods of time, buying and holding forever is just not feasible because of economic conditions, corruption and the shadow, too big to fail financial system.
  • Reading Tea Leaves –  Getting a little more bearish each day. However still believe and oversold bounce is likely, especially if/as the MO falls below -60 and we reach the 1295 support level.  Right now it looks like any bounce will just be another lower high.

______________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell yesterday -0.34% after two straight days of significant gains. The moderate loss doesn’t make up for the two significant rally days or the week+ long major rally before that.  The dollar is fundamentally moving higher  because the Euro is weakening. The Dollar bulls  are back, and momentum could carry the dollar higher and stocks lower = Bearish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO was basically flat. Closing price  -48.57 This is almost exactly April’s low although March’s low reached -90 US stocks moderately oversold = Bullish/Neutral (trying to show a lot more bullish and just a tad neutral.

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Positions

The silver/gold trade is back – If you like high risk,  and can stand a quick 7 to 10% hit, this may be a good trade. Buy The Dip. The CME Group can kill any rally by raising margin rates, so there is added risk. Therefore short term trade.

  • I bought SLV from yesterday as part of Investors411 at 35.09 hypothetical portfolio. REMX other holding in portfolio.
  • Will start to consider ETF’s that short stocks, but waiting for rally/bounce off oversold (see MO) levels.
  • Again a warning for holders of YSL #4. These stocks have a higher beta and tend to do better in bull, but worse in bear markets. Exit positions in any rally.

Disclosure - I have a long term position in GLD for a senior center and member of my family. I also own some SLV from a covered call position bought over two months ago.

Caution - AGQ (2X leveraged silver ETF) does not exactly tracks silver. There are opening and closing distortions. Contact me if you want to know more. Same for ZSL (double short silver) DGP is double long gold.

____________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 24, 2011

Reaganomics and Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Reagonomics/Democracy

Paul Craig Roberts is one of the founders of Reaganomics and on Max Keiser’s show (video) had the following to say about the global financial crisis.

The Money Quotes -

“The west prides itself that it is the standard for the world, that it is a democracy. But nowhere do you see democratic outcomes: not in Greece, not in Ireland, not in the UK, not here, the outcomes are always to punish the innocent and reward the guilty…

There is no democracy, there are oligarchies, some of these smaller European countries are not even run by their own governments, they are run by Wall Street

Revolution is the only answer…

We are confronted with a curious situation. Throughout the west we think we have democracy, we hold ourselves up high, we demonize China, we talk about the mafia state of Russia, we talk about the Arabs and so on, but where is the democracy here?”

Just how far to the radical right this nation has turned when the founder of Reaganomics tells us China has more democracy than the USA and calls for revolution.

Your Comments

  • Too Big To Fail lived up to its promise on HBO last night with  A little too much spinning of bankers and Paulson who caused the crisis as heroes. But the postscript was most alarming. Now interconnected shadow banks are even  bigger – only 10 banks have 77% of the capital in the USA. Of course there are no serious pieces of legislation to prevent what happened from happening again – the last minute intervention to prevent the meltdown of the world’s financial system
  • Yankee Bob has another editorial (Link and scroll down) The money quote – “What Bush and his gangsters did is too important to ignore. And to ignore it is to allow the precedent to stand for future use.”
  • Jim J has a link to a 60 Minutes Interview of Tom Drake (use above link to read other comments on this) Popeye money quoteOne big reason 911 happened and Bush never got bin Laden is because of the corruption and mismanagement of the NSA. They had a $3 million dollar program that the whistleblowers [Drake} wanted, but decided to go with a $1.2 billion program sub contracted to private industry that didn't work and had to be cancelled in 2006.
_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.05% Up
NASDQ -1.58% Flat
S&P 500 -1.19% Down
Russell 2000 -1.81% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • Markets sank as the dollar rose.  We are breaking a pattern. Usually there are heavy volume declines and this was light volume. Don't know what it means, but reason to raise an eyebrow of worry. Weak volume declines are rare.
  • Fed POMO ($7 billion) arrived yesterday,but had little positive impact. All this quantitative easing ends June 30th.
  • Real negative behind market toasting yesterday was emerging markets. (EEM is the ETF - LINK to chart) Emerging markets are sitting right above major support at their 200 day moving average. Japan & Europe can have strikes against them, but if the engine of global growth emerging markets meltdown, that's STRIKE THREE
  • Reading The Tea Leaves - We have a month long series of lower lows and highs on the major indexes. Fundamental problems abound. However we have a moderately oversold market (See MO below) and the Fed still supplying liquidity. = We are probably in for a rally that reaches another lower high for US indexes.
  • Bottom Line - It will get harder and harder to make bullish calls as June 30th approaches and injections of Fed liquidity stop.

______________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose SIGNIFICANTLY  AGAIN on Monday +0.68%. The Dollar bulls  are back, and momentum could carry the dollar higher and stocks lower = Bearish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -49.17 This is almost exactly April’s low although March’s low reached -90 US stocks moderately oversold = Bullish/Neutral (trying to show a lot more bullish and just a tad neutral.

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Paul’s Corner

Paul’s Corner

Buy and Hold, Dividends, Better Stocks?

As we all know these past few months have been tough to make money trading stocks, I don’t care who you are, it’s been tough. With the stomach wrenching moves of the market of late folks have been asking for “longer term better stocks” and “dividend stocks” thinking that is what is needed so your lunch doesn’t turn into a bad meal at Taco Bell.

Last fall when Your Stock List 3 was introduced, the stocks sat still for a few weeks and then at the start of September the market took off on a wonderful bull run and YSL 3 enjoyed the ride with a very good gain. As they say “a good time was had by all“.

Several of the stocks didn’t make the ride so a few were dropped and a few new member requested stocks were added and the new list was introduced about the same time the market peaked and immediately took a 7%  correction.

Since then due to market rotation, the run and decline of the oils, the collapse of silver etc, the market and YSL 4 has essentially been flat. So is YSL dead? Is the market dead? Of course not, most of the YSL 4 charts actually looked quite good until yesterday’s sell off and the market does what it always does, it baffles one and all and will continue to do so for years to come.

So what has changed in “Your Fathers Stock Market” so we can no longer buy and hold? Be an investor rather than a trader? Well as much as I like to joke about Jim Cramer and his lousy recommendations (Say silver a few weeks back) he had a very good video last week about what  the market is now and what has changed since your dad selected his latest pick with a pencil circling a stock symbol in his favorite news paper.

LINK

So do we complain the good old days of buy and hold or over, or do we get with the program and realize paying attention, has replace complacency?

YSL 4 chart reviews will be made as necessary and added to the comments section as the week goes on so check over there from time to time.


______________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
May 23, 2011

Too Big To Fail

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Too Big To Fail

Tonight at 9:00PM Andrew Ross Sorkin’s account of the 2008 financial meltdown comes to life in an HBO Movie.(Trailer) Rave reviews, All Star cast, and what looks to be a chilling account of the arrogance of Wall Street and how close we came to a meltdown.

An economics lesson from hell as entertainment.

It’s a shame that more will see the movie adaptation than read the book, but that’s our culture. You know where I’ll be at 9:00 PM.

Europe on The Brink

Each day Europe inches closer to the brink of a fiscal meltdown. There are those in Europe and the USA (Republicans) who insist on “claiming that defaulting on U.S. [or European] debt would be no big deal “ This is truly frightening.

Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman When Austerity Fails (NYT today) goes over that and other myths that obviously haven’t worked to solve Europe’s current problems

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.74% Down
NASDQ -0.71% Up
S&P 500 -077% Up
Russell 2000 -0.73% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Last Friday AM Investors downgraded US Equities from CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH to NEUTRAL. A major part of the reasoning in this, as explained on Friday is based on market fundamentals. – I hate when analysts downgrade a stock/sector/market after its got toasted.
  • Its a globalized world and very serious problems exist – like in Europe and Japan These problems are going to add to worldwide problems this summer.
  • Repeat – This is not an end of the world forecast, but I think investors will need to hear the Fed say “I’ve got your back” with some new form of liquidity after June 30th, before they feel comfortable again.
  • Market direction is the #1 criteria for investing and this downgrades impacts especially the high bets stocks (fast growers) in YOUR Stock List. So be careful.
  • From Seeking Aloha here’s Jeff Miler on stocks this week.
  • Both JS & The Critic commented on how to buy protection if you are long some stocks this summer. It well worth reading. (scroll down to comments section)

_________________

Dividend Stocks

If stocks get toasted or flatten, stocks with a second stream of income – a dividend – usually suffer too. It’s the dividend that makes them outperform most other categories. Earlier we covered the ultra high dividend stocks (NYL & AGNC). Today two sectors of relatively high dividend plays.

Notes

  • DailyFinance.com has a history of payouts for dividend stocks for the past 5 years. (Click on Dividends near top of column on left)
  • DUK – A Utility I forgot to mention Friday, has a 5.16% dividend.
  • * Indicates or someone in my family owns this stock
  • Buy the dip

Tobacco

  • *MO – 5.48% dividend, Simply put – people across the world are addicted to tobacco. This stock is almost always on a top 10 list of dividend stocks. Marlboro etc.. For 5 years the dividend has been flat of higher.
  • RAI5.40% Winston etc.. Another stock that has raised dividends for 5 straight years. Lawsuits – The double standard – Tobacco companies fill government coffers with tax dollars so litigation is often curtailed.
  • PM - 3.65% Not as high a dividend, but the story is this international company was spun off from MO in anticipation of US litigation against tobacco companies. Again always flat or raising dividends over last 5 years

Telecom

  • *T – 5.50% This whole group benefits from all the new tech toys and apps that use their services. 5 years of steady dividend growth. AT&T
  • *VZ -5.23 Another stock with a 5 year dividend growth record. Verizon
  • *WIN 7.22% Smaller than the two above giants. 4 3/4 years of the same dividend. Windstream

Do your own homework on these stocks. The above is an outline. Consider protection(see above) and be conscious of overall market conditions when investing.

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose SIGNIFICANTLY Friday  +0.74% yesterday. The Dollar bulls  are back, and momentum could carry the dollar higher and stocks lower = Bearish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -20.22. Just a tad move oversold, but lots of room to run on both sides. = Neutral

________________

Positions

  • In light of the Long Term Outlook call Friday, I sold 1/2 of REMX (Rare earth metals ETF) at basically what it was bought for.  Still have a lot of confidence in this area.  But it will take a hit if the summer is down.
  • Investors411 favorite long term  favorite IMAX probably had a good weekend.  The Pirates movie opened lower than others, but close to 1/2 the revenue was 3D and IMAX charges a premium. Still have faith in this stock because of its solid fundamental story – Lots more potential 3D hits on the way this summer. Shrek opens in 3D this weekend
  • As stated on Friday YOUR Stock List will be negatively impacted by the change in long term outlook.

Disclosure - I have positions in IMAX & REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD

______________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
May 20, 2011

The Secret Sharer

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Jane Mayer/Investigative Journalist

The Secret Sharer

Editorial by Yankee Bob

In a SciFi novel you may run into a Facist Police State . In this Police state for the sake of Homeland Security, some people,citizens or outsiders may be branded as dangerous or even threats to the Security of the State and therefore, Enemies of the State. That threat that could brand citizens as enemies of the state will be decided not in a court of law with all the tenents of due process that the citizens are costitutionally entitled to.

Nope. Faceless bureacrats,agents of the government or corporate hires acting on behest of a private contractor , will make that judgement call. That call that can brand a citizen as an enemy of the state and no longer deserving of or given their rights to due process.

Now ,what kind of threats can land a citizen in such a pickle? Well,it could be some corporate hire merely finding something that they deem as ” SUSPICIOUS.” Remember,a private contractor can’t say to it’s Boss, We haven’t found anything. They have to come up with stuff no matter how shaky it may be because they have to prove that they are worth the expense. They need to justify their existence or their contract dries up. They will use powerful computers,in private ,that have the ability to monitor all communications,foreign and domestic, and cell phones,faxes, and email.

Merely going on line to certain sites could be enough to cast suspicion on you. Bank records,credit activity,taxes,birth records,travel,spending,…everything can be tracked and recorded without a warrant or court order. This can only happen in a police state you say. We have Constitutional safeguards you say. YOU ARE WRONG. THESE PROGRAMS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AND FUNCTIONING IN THE UNITED STATES! You are being trcked and recorded!

THIS,…IS BEING ARCHIVED!

We have been warned. We were warned in bits and pieces over the years but the big picture is in place. The telecom carriers have cooperated in the program and sought and were given immunity from prosecution for breaching the rights of Americans. All communication goes thru this program. It records and archives it all ,leaving the door open for future investigation. All on the quiet and all in secret. Whether you trust Obama with this power is irrelevent. Maybe he gets replaced by a Rick Santorum or Michele Bachman type.  Maybe Dick Cheny or his daughter Liz.

How can you be free if every move and every communication is being recorded and can be used against you. You are subject to investigation merely on whim and suspiccion ,without due process. You can lose all of your rights ,at the whim of a corporation or a politician and none of it follows due process. Your rights,your freedoms sre yours but only at the perogative of unseen hands and forces. It is a brave new world! It’s a good thing none of our politicians or corporations would ever abuse this power.

Oh ,Please!! Please , Read the link!

LINK

to New Yorker Piece by Jane Mayer

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.36% Down
NASDQ +0.30% Down
S&P 500 +022% Down
Russell 2000 +0.21% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Stocks had another ultra low volume rally that has become typical of the Fed manipulated/managed, liquidity driven market. – Mantra for 6+ months has been – there’s more Fed money, zero % interest rates and extremely low bond rates. This forces money ( with an occasional wink and nod) into the path of least resistance stocks.
  • Horrible economic news yesterday and stocks rallied.
  • Linkedin IPO rocketed and now the stock has one of the highest PE’s (price to earnings ratio) in the USA.  This and the rally in defensive names is still telling investors DON’T WORRY THE FED HAS YOUR BACK.

_________________

CHANGE

IN LONG TERM OUTLOOK

After over 8 month of almost always CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH,

Investors411 is downgrading the long term outlook to NEUTRAL.

This is largely because of the uncertainty created by the Fed’s ending of QE2 (quantitative easing) on June 30th.

Stock market investors and professionals hate uncertainty. That’s what we will have after June 30th. Last year between the end of QE #1 in March and QE #2 our benchmark S&P fell (scroll down to weekly chart) at its worse @-17%. (1220 to 1011 – see chart) Every pro and serious trader is aware of this fact and may be front run the end of QE #2.

The Fed still has YOUR (stock Investors) back with low interest rates, but the lack of additional capital injections after June 30th changes the equation.  At some point down the road if the economy/stocks toasts the Fed will be forced into some form of adding liquidity. But that’s down the road.

The economic outlook worldwide is grim. Europe’s debt crisis,US debt crisis, Japan’s GDP fall/crisis, China’s corruption/inflation The bright sport remains emerging markets. When you add the democracy revolutions in the Arab world (obviously a move in the the right direction) that uncertainty grows. The economic situation NOW has more uncertainty than last year.

Technically, the traditional growth areas tech and small cap stocks are under performing.  Investors are moving into safer stocks. Dividend stocks are one of those areas.

Bottom Line -I think there is a better than 60% chance we’ll see a summer meltdown like last year. The training wheels are coming off the bike and I don’t think our economy or the world’s economy is ready to ride yet.  I hope I’m wrong.

The Fed will probably ride to the rescue with more liquidity if things go bad, but we are now entering THE UNCERTAINTY PERIOD.

Remember stocks did rise for a short period directly after QE1 ended. So this change is NOT a panic move, but a longer term move to NEUTRAL  based on uncertainty.


Holding non defensive stocks, especially high beta stocks may be a problem.

YSL #4 will under perform – sell into rallies

Investors411 may use ETF’s that short the market

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell  -0.44% yesterday. Stocks rallied as the dollar fell and rose when the dollar stopped falling yesterday.  For stocks shorter term trend = Bearish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO rose to -1.79. Squarely in the middle of = Neutral

________________

A List of high dividend Utility Stocks

Caution - Neither Paul or I have had a chance to go over the price charts yet.

Criteria – The three year dividend growth rate is greater than zero. Latest dividend after ticker symbol.

  • EXC – 5.03 %
  • ETR – 4.80%
  • DPL – 4.41
  • AVA – 4.36%
  • DTE – 4.53%
  • AGL – 4.41%
  • CMS – 4.13
  • D – 4.09

______________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 19, 2011

“Donald Ducks” (2)

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Happy Talk

The happy talk by governments and  media outlets around the world have masked the severity of the 2008 economic meltdown. Today, that same happy talk hit reality in Japan.

TEPCO and the Japanese government has continued to underestimate the problems in Japan.

  • The lead story in yesterday’s NYT examined “Vents that American officials said would prevent devastating explosions at nuclear plants in the United States were put to the test in Japan and failed.” (Thanks to frequent blogger Popeye for heads up on this.)
  • Today we learn that Japan’s GDP for the last quarter was almost twice as bad as was predicted. Last quarter’s GDP was -3.7% making Japan officially in a double dip recession.(Two negative quarters of GDP)

The sky is not falling. However, its time for some  realism when comes to economics and nuclear power.

  • The USA is the ONLY country that is NOT stopping to evaluate  its nuclear program in light of the Japanese disaster. Shouldn’t we pause to evaluate nuclear power?
  • Japan was the #2 economic power in the world till this year and its GDP had turned negative before the nuke disaster. Our economy and the worlds is in a fragile recovery. Shouldn’t the immediate focus of our politicians be insuring that we recover?

Without recovery there will be no funds to impact problems of the future. Japan seems to be taking the right role and focusing on recovery. Our politicians in the USA should do the same.

The Donald Ducks”

Headline from Politico

Three of the leading Republican candidates (Gallop Poll) effectively ended their quest for the presidency this week.

Mike HuckabeeAnnounced he would not run – Not to worry he will keep his FOX News show. Directly after his announcement in what only can be considered as bizarre Fox news ran a long infomercial as Donald Trump monologued his assessment of Hukabee, Obama and politics.

Newt Gingrich- Announced that Ryan’s plan to privatize and eliminate Medicare was “too radical.” This brought down the wrath of Republicans and then led Newt to say opps it was the media’s fault. Ryan’s plan will cost more and cover less (Goggle the words – CBO, Ryan & medicare) for American according to the non partisan Congressional Budget Office.

The Donnald - Announced he would no run – Not to worry he will keep his TV show. Trumps tough talk (fear mongering, finger pointing, & bigotry) and constant references to his TV show had catapulted him to the #2 position behind Huckabee (Gallop Poll) in the race for president. Wake up and smell the coffee, this run was all about Trump’s ego and his show. Everyone from the media on down who took his candidacy seriously was played for a sucker. (see Popeye’s remarks in comments section of blog)

The new Gallop poll has two new front runners for the presidency.

Mitt RomneyA candidate in 2008 whose cardboard presentation and flip flops on positions made John McCain look like John Wayne on Steroids. If Newt stays, undoubtedly, folks will evaluate which of the two has changed more positions. Romney wins the cardboard contest hands down.

Sarah PalinMama Grizzly can always say grrrr.

Maybe a better candidate will emerge from the pack. Stay tuned.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.65% Down
NASDQ +1.14% Down
S&P 500 +0.68% Down
Russell 2000 +1.60% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Stocks returned to the most familiar pattern since Fed managed/manipulated liquidity was reintroduced last November – An ultra light volume rally
  • UUP is the tracking ETF for the dollar is still the most relevant forecasting tool for US equities. Dollar. up = stocks down. Dollar down = stocks up
  • The dollar has flattened over last three days and a moderately oversold rallied.
  • Dell had a solid earnings report and investors  ignored the earlier poor reports from Cisco and HP. Commodities also rebounded, but the technicals (Dollar and MO above and charts/explanation below) were the driving Factors.
  • Our Fed managed/manipulated growing money supply had no place to park its money – Treasury bonds are falling, 0% interest rates in stocks, and a whole bunch of added dollars have recently come out of commodities & stocks. Therefore, Path of least resistance was for oversold stocks to move higher.
  • Short term momentum with bulls

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar was flat +0.03% yesterday.  After a big run  higher for 8 trading days the dollar has flattened or retreated for the last 3 days. Three flat days is neutral. but momentum is still with dollar bulls. If the dollar continues to move sideways the outlook will change to Neutral. For stocks shorter term trend = Bearish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .MO fell to -40 two days ago and rose to -9.04 yesterday. Accurate prediction from Tuesday MO isOn its way to oversold (@-60) Another bad day or two and we should be ready for at least an oversold bounce. We got that bounce yesterday and, depending on the dollar  could hold onto those gains today. However MO is now near Zero and therefore = Neutral

________________

Paul’s Corner

What an interesting week so far, at the start of the day I don’t know whether I should open a new bottle of Tums or put on the party hat.  Wednesday was a good day and most of Your Stock List looks ok with many stocks in a good buy the dip position.

So how do we “buy the dip” without “losing the house’?

Buying when a stock drops and touches the 17 or 50 DMA or if below when it crosses up through the average is usually a good method. In many instances a stock isn’t at a moving average or is even slightly below the average so we need to place a buy order above the previous days high to get a safe trade.

LYB took a serious hit this week along with the sell off of the commodities and now is in a buy the dip position. I have prepared a PDF  file  explaining  how to safely trade LYB in a  “buy the dip” position .

LINK

Take a look at the stocks in Your Stock List [click on word POSITIONS at top of blog and scroll down for list] and you’ll see most are in the “Buy The Dip” position.  SPRD and JNPR would not have been bought yesterday may 18  using this method since they didn’t raise above their close on May 17.

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

______________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 17, 2011

“The Donald Ducks”

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags:

Trump

“The Donald Ducks”

Headline from Politico

Sorry this part crashed on my computer – Back tomorrow. Just one happy face of a happy guy (ex presidential candidate) from the financial elite laughing all the way to the bank – Donald Trump.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.38% up
NASDQ -1.63% up
S&P 500 -0.62% flat
Russell 2000 -1.53% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • UUP is the tracking stock for the dollar. It echos what the massive FOREX (currency) markets do. There has been massive volume behind each of the four rally days over the last two weeks. This is VERY bullish for the dollar and NOT for stocks.
  • Bond Investors  are 100% simply NOT worried about the end of quantitative easing or the debt ceiling crisis. The yield on the 10 year treasury bond (also 2, 5 & 30) keeps falling. If investors were worried about these factors they would NOT buy Treasuries.  Fear of the future sure as hell is not registering on how investors allocate their money.  Money talks.
  • Many investors went overboard for many many months believing the dollar would keep falling. It’s not falling, and these massive positions are now unwinding.  As the dollar goes up, stocks go down.
  • Impossible to predict how long the dollar will move higher and, as a result,  stocks lower.- Another day or many months.

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell -0.28% yesterday.  Dollar bulls are on a big run that started 8 trading days ago. Any quick look at the tracking stock for the dollar UUP shows massive volume on up days and meager volume on down days – Great news if you are long the dollar, but NOT good news for stocks. For stocks shorter term trend = Bearish
  • McClellan Index (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo fell to -33.34. On its way to oversold (@-60) Another bad day or two and we should be ready for at least an oversold bounce. The bullish side of the Neutral/Bullish will grow, the lower we go. Neutral/Bullish

________________

Paul’s Corner

Just time for a quick check up of Your Stock List today. Looks like most took a hit today. All of the major averages to a big hit Monday.  Virtually all of the Industry Groups we down/red today. Protect your capital!

  • POT sitting on the 200, up 1.34
  • BEXP just above the 200, up 0.22
  • ABC looks Ok up 0.23
  • SAP Doji candle stick (Indecision), just above the 50, -0.24
  • KSU sitting just above the 50 -0.27
  • JNPR just below the 50, if it crosses up  through the 50 a buy could be considered. -0.51
  • RVBD, above the 50 chart Ok. -0.55
  • CPHD chart Ok -0.70
  • IMAX chart Ok -0.84
  • ALTR Chart Ok -1.17
  • BIDU looks to be breaking down, not buyable until it reverses, – 3.51
  • ADTN, dropped below the 17, sitting on the 50 – 1.21
  • PCLN dropped to the 50, – 17.23
  • SWKS - 1.10 not buyable until it crosses up through the 50!
  • LYB all indicators red, broken down, not buyable at this time. (Gas index down 5% yesterday)
  • SPRD all indicators red, sitting below the 50
  • RNOW all indicators red, below the 50.

Don’t forget tomorrow May 18th Jeffrey Scott a HGSI user is going to present a HGSI Webinar and will show how he uses HGSI in his successful trading. I invite any of you who are interested in a quality analysis program and building your trading skills to watch the webinar. See if Jeff can find and good stocks in a down market!

The Power Of HGSI Webinar May 18th from 8:00pm to 9:30pm EDT Registration is required and the webinar is free.

LINK

Please note, I am a HGSI user, I pay a monthly fee for the program and I receive no compensation for recommending the product.

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions

______________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 16, 2011

Le Scandal

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

.

Le Scandal

Dominique Strauss-Kahn sex scandalis a seismic event for the IMF and a major development for French presidential politics. But the implications for the eurozone crisis are probably being overdone.

Strauss-Kahn is the head of the IMF and the leading contedner for the French Presidency. He was caught by police in a NYC hotel sex scandal with a maid. As head of the IMF he is obviously a mega player in financial circles with plenty of  friends and enemies. This is coming at a time Europe is in the middle of some crucial debt negotiations with Greece and other member states. Imagine Ben Bernanke caught with his pants down.

Perhaps the only saving grace is he was expected to resign to run for the presidency of France

More

  • NPR
  • AJC – Atlanta (latest)


_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.79% down
NASDQ -1.21% down
S&P 500 -0.81% down
Russell 2000 -1.40% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Le Scandal and its impact is going to focus investors on lots of negatives and uncertainty. Stock markets hate uncertainty. = Bearish
  • Those who have relied on Volume as a forecasting tool have looked foolish since the Fed. started manipulating/managing markets though the liquidity of quantitative easing last November.
  • However a market fall in reduced below average volume is unusual. Markets have been propelled higher by ultra light volume rallies, but light volume declines are an almost unique. = Perhaps a reason to be cautious – time will tell.
  • Question – What happened to that Fed induced money coming into the markets that was so transparent on light volume days? (see reading tea leaves below)
  • Seeking Alpha author on how the week sets up. – Red Flags Everywhere

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a significant +0.71% Friday.  Dollar bulls are on a big run that started 7 trading days ago. For stocks shorter term trend = Bearish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo fell to -14.56. Still in the middle of its range. Almost equal room to rally or fall = Neutral

________________

Dividend Stocks

Part 3

Europe’s in trouble, Japan’s in crisis, unemployment remains high in the USA so its natural for investors to turn toward more defensive stocks and cash. Investors when they are worried tend to favor more defensive stocks. Example – People are addicted to cigarettes, they won’t stop smoking when times get tough, and those stocks also have a second stream of income – So a dividend stock often outperforms.

Today, because of time limitations I’m just going to print a lists of dividend stocks I own or am considering.  Investors411 will go over each one individually in the coming weeks and probably a couple more.  Some of the stocks have more growth potential and lower dividends others have higher dividends and perhaps less growth potential.

CautionNot all of these are in a position to BUY right now. The list is NOT in order of preference. * denotes my family owns this stock.

Higher dividends – Ticker symbol and last dividend paid listed below – All of the below have flat or growing dividends over 3 years, many longer. Highest dividend stocks were covered last week.

  • MO – 5.64%
  • PM  -  3.73%
  • KMP* – 6.11%
  • EPD – 5.78 %
  • DUK – 5.24%
  • PGN – 5.27%
  • HCN* – 5.58%
  • VZ* – 5.23%
  • T* – 5.50 %
  • WIN – 7.42%
  • CTL* -7.08%
  • SNH* – 6.36%
  • MRK -4.18
  • LLY – 5.11%
  • BCE* – 5.22%
  • BMO* – 4.48%

More growth than dividend.

  • CVX* – 3.03%
  • MCD – 3.10%
  • PG  - 3.22%
  • CL – 2.73
  • DD – 3.00%
  • GIS – 2.90%


________________

.

Positions

Reading The Tea Leaves - The dollar is rising and Le Scandal should add some combustion to the rally. The MO is in neutral, so what usually is a decent (“merger”) Monday is looking bearish.

We’ve seen a roll over in most commodities (huge volume) , emerging markets, and some high beta names. Also, a corresponding move to defensive positions and cash. I don’t think this is Chicken Little, end of the world., but reason for caution.  When the MO  near gets below -60 there will be some kind of counter rally.

There’s a whole pot of Fed induced growing US dollars out there. There’s a whole pot of dollars coming out of commodities. – Where is that money going to go? Probably into stocks

The counter argument is the Fed stops it’s liquidity injections June 30th.  The counter counter argument is if things get bad enough the Fed will find some way to inject more $ into the market.

Bottom Line - We may see selling this week – However, Don’t fight the Fed has worked. The whole CME Group  raising margins to stop the silver rally may just be part of  the Fed’s managing/manipulations. The dollar going higher, ironically, gives the Fed more room to manage/manipulate.  All this has consequences in the long term, but its the Fed’s game and with the head of the IMF in deep do do the Fed becomes even stronger.

Check out the Quantitative Easing chart in the STRATEGY (click on word STRATEGY on top of blog or the link) Section of the blog. The stock market didn’t end between QE 1 & 2.

So Investors411 is going to stick with what works till its broken.  An MO approaching -60 is a signal to buy. Maybe later its red, but for now a yellow flag

Disclosure - I or my family have positions in REMX, NLY & GNC. I run a fund with a long term position in GLD

The Investors411 Portfolios – See POSITIONs Section of blog. – Click on word POSITIONS at top of page.

  • REMX – Dipped below its 50 day moving average on Friday. Not good news.
  • NLY and AGNC (two recommended high dividend stocks) Bought NLY at 17.14.
  • YOUR Stock List stocks according to longer term market outlook CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH are  in a position to buy. Shorter term Investors411 feels a lower MO is a superior buying position. Also each stock individual performance obviously matters. See Paul’s remark’s on right side of blog.
  • See last Monday and Wednesday’s Blog for more on Dividend Stocks.
  • IMAX from YSL was up +5.34% Friday. Thor broke an IMAX record and There are some big summer block busters coming up in IMAX 3D. IMAX has been the most talked about stock in Investors411 since Avatar opened.

______________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 13, 2011

Meltdown

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Fukushima Damage

Meltdown

Yet more stories of greater than expected damage. Reactor #1 at the troubled Japanese nuclear plant has melted fuel rods. Here’s the money quotes from the Reuter’s story.

  • “One of the reactors at Japan’s crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant has a hole in its main vessel following a meltdown of fuel rods, leading to a leakage of radioactive water”
  • U.S. nuclear experts said that the company may have to build a concrete wall around the unit because of the breach, and that this could now take years.”

“Years” to contain the radiation. Already if you live 10 miles from the plant you are allowed two hours only to retrieve your belongings and have to wear a protective suit to enter the area for those two hours. Anyone who has seen the moving graphic (scroll down) of the radiation plume has seen that plume mostly go over the ocean but also its blown back across central and northern Japan.

The damage has been constantly underestimated by officials, but not by this blog. Year’s of significant amounts of leaking radiation is a clear possibility or probability.

“Crackpot” Senator

” When the devoted follower of crackpot cult leader Ayn Rand gets elected to the Senate, you wind up having Congressional hearings filled up with feverish reasoning like this:Link to video and editorial on Senator Rand Paul (Republican TN) The problem here is much of Wall Street worship’s Ayn Rand who wrote “The Virtues of Selfishness” The video is less than 2 minutes. Check it out.

Paul says if you think you have a right to health care “it means you believe in slavery.” So everyone who believes in medicare believes in slavery. There are some concepts Libertarians/Ayn Rand worshipers (and a Tea Party darling) have right. (example – end empire building) but when you peal away the outer shell its the core beliefs of leaders like Paul that are something rational, reasoned individuals must be aware of.

FYI – Republican congressman Ron Paul (Rand’s father) has officially launched his bid for president.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.52% flat
NASDQ +0.63% down
S&P 500 +0.49% down
Russell 2000 +0.82% -

_____________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Weekly jobs numbers came in worse than expected, but not as bad as last week. Two week trend is negative.
  • Economic data for yesterday was poor and tech giant CSCO was down 5%.
  • All this bad news is not negative for the markets, because it means a greater likelihood of some king of managed/manipulate/liquidity driven Fed program will be reintroduced after June 30th.
  • The Fed money supply finds its way into stocks each day.
  • MantraManaged/manipulated markets distort traditional technical & fundamental analysis because of the continued introduction of new market capital. Bad news is good for stock markets again and again and again. – Yesterday is just latest example.
  • What’s happening in Europe very important. Shorter term -The Euro is falling, so the dollar is getting stronger. Longer term – obviously economic hardship in Europe impacts the world.
  • Euro is rising abroad today. Domino’s –  Euro rises = dollar falls = stocks rally

_________________

Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar flattened +0.11%yesterday. Third major move higher in 6 day has created a short term bullish trend. Long term trend is still bearish for the dollar. For stocks shorter term trend = Bearish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo rose  to +11.41. Still in the middle of its range. Almost equal room to rally or fall = Neutral

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Dividend Stocks

More in this continuing series early next week. See part’s 1 & 2 by using calender at top of blog. Click on May 9th & 11th.

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Positions

Reading The Tea Leaves – Long term outlook below is still CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH and has been that was almost every day since QE #2 started in November. Shorter term forecasting tools

  • The dollar – Stocks have held up quite well despite the short term rally in the dollar. This may continue as long as Fed POMO liquidity keeps managing/manipulating stocks higher. Without quantitative easing (POMO) the dollar would probably rise a whole lot faster
  • MO has been in neutral the past couple days and given no strong overbought or oversold signal. So this shorter term forecasting tool is parked in Neutral

Analysis – Overall long term, remains the same CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, probably will till the Fed QE2/POMO ends on June 30th. All the printed money has to have somewhere to go and stocks have higher yields than the near 0% interest rates of banks and better but still meager yields of bonds. If US stocks falter after 6/30, there will be strong pressure to continue to have some sort of liquidity program by the Fed.

UUP - The tracking ETF for the dollar still the index to watch. Dollar up significantly = stocks down

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD. I also own NLY and AGNC mentioned above

“I have a position” = Either I own it personally or a member of my family does.  I also manage an account for a non profit organization.

The Investors411 Portfolios – See POSITIONs Section of blog. – Click on word POSITIONS at top of page.

  • REMX – Still trading above 50 day moving average which would be a buying point if your interested in owning rare earth mining companies.
  • NLY and AGNC (two recommended high dividend stocks) still too far above 50 DMA to buy. Have buy order for NLY at 17.70
  • YSL stocks according to longer term market outlook CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH are  in a position to buy. Shorter term Investors411 feels a lower MO is a superior buying position. Also each stock individual performance obviously matters. See Paul’s remark’s on right side of blog.

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Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

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Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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May 12, 2011

The Vampire Squid

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

The Vampire Squid

The People vs Goldman Sach’s

Matt Taibbi back with another editorial in the Rolling Stone. Matt’s the guy who immortalize GS as a Vampire Squid sucking on the face of humanity. He just keeps getting better and better. You can be damn sure that none of the cheerleading financial channels will dare to have him on.

Here’s Some of the money quotes

  • They weren’t murderers or anything; they had merely stolen more money than most people can rationally conceive of, from their own customers, in a few blinks of an eye
  • [Goldman Sachs] – “stands as the most important symbol of Wall Street’s aristocratic impunity and prosecutorial immunity produced since the crash of 2008…

  • used its canny perception of an upcoming disaster (one which it helped create, incidentally) as an opportunity to enrich itself, not only at the expense of clients but ultimately, through the bailouts and the collateral damage of the wrecked economy, at the expense of society. The bank seemed to count on the unwillingness or inability of federal regulators to stop them…

  • stands now on the precipice of officially getting away with one of the biggest financial crimes in history….

  • This isn’t just a matter of a few seedy guys stealing a few bucks. This is America: Corporate stealing is practically the national pastime, and Goldman Sachs is far from the only company to get away with doing it….

  • if Goldman skates without so much as a trial — it will confirm once and for all the embarrassing truth: that the law in America is subjective, and crime is defined not by what you did, but by who you are.”

“Stealing by corporate America is practically a national pastime.” The ruling wealthy plutocracy that benefits from GS rules the USA. Almost untouchable. Yet their financed media finds ways of pitting the middle class who they use and abuse against each other and the poor.

Vast amounts of wealth have been transfered to the wealthy elite over decades while they focus/fear monger you on racial prejudice, patriotism, religious bias, jealousy, greed, endless wars, cutting everything except the aristocracy.

TREND – As other countries develop their middle class, the consumers of the shrinking middle class in the USA will become even less important.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.02% up
NASDQ -0.93% up
S&P 500 -1.11% up
Russell 2000 -1.78% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • The weekly jobless numbers come out today and will act as a confirmation of how the economy is doing.
  • A bad jobless number is not necessarily bad for stocks, because it means it means the potential for more quantitative easing.
  • The dollar rising means many of those who have for months been dollar bears and long commodities are getting out of their positions, This hurts stocks and you saw the damage on Silver (down 8.34%) & oil (down 5.44%) yesterday.
  • BRAVO – The US government finally won a sizable court VICTORY – Hedge Fund bigwig Raj Rajaratham was convicted on all 14 counts of insider trading
  • Translation – You decide - Hedge Funds and others will think twice because this guy should get serious jail time or this is just the tip of the iceberg. Everyones doing it and the underfunded SEC can’t begin to catch all the crooks.
  • How the Wall Street day sets up from Seeking Alpha (Not good)

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar rose a whopping +0.96%yesterday. Third major move higher in 5 day broke through the 50 day moving average. It’s the major reason stocks fell yesterday. Long term trend is bearish, but the short term trend is clearly bullish. For stocks = Bearish
  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Mo on fell dramatically to +1.98. Back squarely in the middle. = Neutral

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Paul’s Corner

We were all set up for our 4th day of the rally, futures looked good and then after the opening bell, the heat mat of the S&P 500 turned almost solid red. “Humph looks like a trying day coming“. Reports of a growth in inventory of crude and gasoline started a slide in commodities. The EURO fell with concerns over Europe’s debt crisis, the dollar rose and you guessed it the market took a hit.

YSL 4 had mixed trading and nothing gross happened to the group. SPRD, CPHD and SAP all had a good day.  SPRD  needs to settle down and base a bit before a buy would be safe. RNOW dropped below the 50 but it did that on low volume.  Volume on many of the YSL 4 stocks was normal or even low.

*****

As I often state, I use HGSI software as my primary stock analysis program. It has great interactive charts, the best screening in the business, the ability to make your own groups and indexes along with excellent support.

Next week May 18th Jeffrey Scott a HGSI user is going to present a HGSI Webinar and will show how he uses HGSI in his successful trading. I invite any of you who are interested in a quality analysis program  and building your trading skills to watch the webinar.

The Power Of HGSI Webinar May 18th from 8:00pm to 9:30pm EDT Registration is required and the webinar is free.

See LINK

Please note, I am a HGSI user, I pay a monthly fee for the program and I receive no compensation for recommending the product.

*****

These past few months have not been easy to trade with a full stomach. Folks are asking for longer term trades,  all of the stocks on YSL have the quality for long term trades. UFS Domtar, a paper company was added to Your Stock List on August 23, 2010. Priced about 57.15 it closed yesterday at 104.26, with an 87% gain in 9 months. It also has a small dividend.  Common stocks can be nice long term investments. It looks like UFS should have not been removed from YSL.

So what’s the market going to do today? Let’s load up Quote Tracker………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

*****

Editor’s note – Click on POSITIONS at top  of blog and scroll down for YSL 4 & 4.5 Stocks mentioned above or LINK here

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Dividend Stocks

Caution - The Critic (in the comments section of the blog) reminds that the two high dividend stocks NLY and ANGC are too far above their 50 day moving averages to buy now and longer term investors should wait to buy the dip.

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Positions

Reading The Tea Leaves – From Yesterday – MO has been an amazing accurate forecasting tool for the past year.  It saying we are getting near a technical top – Yesterday saw a major market reversal led by commodities (silver and oil)

Investors411 mantra has been to wait for the MO to get down toward -60 to buy.

The commodities trade (commodities rally of many months) is unwinding as the dollar goes higher.  Speculators, hedge funds, huge institutions etc. who have built up major positions are unwinding those positions. It took many months to build these positions in commodities and the dollar. It will probably take more than a week to unwind these positions.

UUP – The tracking ETF for the dollar still the index to watch.

Disclosure - I have personal ETF positions in REMX and manage a fund that has a 5+ year position in GLD. I also own NLY and AGNC mentioned above

I have a position = Either I own it personally or a member of my family does.  I also manage an account for a non profit organization.

The Investors411 PortfolioThe stocks in YSL #4/4.5, REMX, plus all trades mentioned  in this section. (example the SLV and ZLS trades mentioned in April and May) AGNC & NLY will be added on a dip

  • REMX – Still trading above 50 day moving average which would be a buying point if your interested in owning rare earth mining companies.
  • ZSL (double short silver) – A potential trade today. Silver is just a % point of two from its last week low. Silver bears are going to try break the bulls today. If they do you might catch a significant downside move.  All of this depends on the dollar. Dollar/Euro trade is at a major support level. Bad news in Europe could set off a chain of events that drive Silver and oil lower.  Not a solid trade with and established trend, but one with potential because momentum with bears. Will mention in comments section if I am about to make trade.

______________

Check out the advice, recommendations, analysis by bloggers on stocks,politics and trends in the comments section of the blog  Many of the best concepts regarding YOUR Financial Future are discussed their. Watch foPaul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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