Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
June 30, 2011

Corporate Jets

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Greece

The Greek debt crisis has impacted the world. Just what are the austerity measures imposed by European Banks on Greece. Here’s the top 5  from CNBC. (CNBC is an ultra pro bank/Wall Street network.) More details at link.

NB all prices are in EUROs not dollars

  • Raise Taxes – 7 trillion over next 3/4 years. Includes a 23% value added tax.
  • Wage cuts – 15% public sector (huge 25% of Greece is public sector workers.)
  • Military Cuts – about .5 trillion
  • Social Security costs – about  5 trillion – means test and retirement age moves from 61 to 65.
  • Luxury Tax – All they said was thy were going to soak the rich too.

Lets compare this with what the US is doing to balance it budget.  Obviously both parties are to blame and they are far more interested in ideology than solutions. However, one sides total lack of willingness to compromise was pointed out in Obama’s press conference.

Republican’s are not willing even to compromise on

“limiting tax deductions for corporate jets.”

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.60 Up
NASDQ +0.41 Up
S&P 500 +0.83 Up
Russell 2000 +0.32 -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

  • Third straight rally day. Biggest 3 day gains in many moons is bullish Overall volume average today and weak the first two days.  It was, of course,  dominated by the High Frequency Traders (HFT’s)and Bank trading. Most of this trading goes on in dark pools Here’s the video from Bloomberg
  • Chart of the DayShows HFT trading over 15 major exchanges (not dark pools)  - “The image below reflects high frequency trading (HFT) operations with quotes in milliseconds. The sharp increases in the chart are what’s termed “quote stuffing” as the machines try to engineer some action over the four minute span.”

openingimage

Thanks to Dave Fry. The quote and chart are his

  • At the end of he quarter managers of stock funds “window dress” their stocks. Part of this rally is “window dressing” or stock managers buying the “hot” stocks to impress their clients so that they stay invested. The major factor is the HFT are buying. Both the quarter and QE2 end today.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +52.72 (above +30 somewhat overbought , above +60 overbought, above +90 OMG overbought) Repeat -The MO has been unable to get above the +50 range for 6 months. It sure looks like the +50 high of the last 6 months is about to fall = long term bullish. Short term almost overbought = Bearish
  • $USD The Dollar fell  again significantly -0.55% yesterday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. Big reversal down in last 3 days. Most of this movement is based on Greece. Short term tend for stocks now = Bullish/Neutral
  • Reading The Tea LeavesShorter term – Repeat-  A raging bull is stampeding and right now it looks like the only barrier is that markets are almost oversold and what earnings season might have next month.  MO is at +53 almost oversold

Long Term

  • Fed tells Wall Street and Banks - it has your back. The Fed with its surprise announcement favoring banks (swipe fees)  over consumers has sent a message to the markets that it will do whatever it takes takes. MC & Visa up 10+% and banks rallied on $8.5 billion BAC settlement. This $ went to big hedge funds etc. not to middle class.
  • It certainly looks like the HFT’s can sustain a low volume rally without Fed liquidity (QE2 which ends today). Earnings season, Chinese inflation, or something else may trump this, but for now bulls have regained momentum and the only barrier is overbought markets.
  • Obviously, people who buy/sell stocks think the Greek crisis is bullish.
  • Reading Tea Leaves - Changing back to NEUTRAL for the summer.

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Your Stock List

Here’s the LINK to a spreadsheet of YSL #4.

YSL #4 beat the benchmark S&P 500. So did YSL 1 & 2 & 3

Remember t0 send in by emails or post in the comment section any choices YOU have for YSL # 5

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock

Short term strategy is to short overbought stocks. –  Stocks did not rally from their earlier highs so I did NOT “nibble on” the TZA trade. Will do so if the Dow goes up 60+ points and I’m watching.

NB – The long term strategy is no longer to short rallies since outlook has turned to NEUTRAL

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

Paul is on break for a couple weeks.

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The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative/neutral on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are resolved.

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Longer Term Outlook

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


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June 29, 2011

The Borgias

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

We’ve Done it again.

For the Fourth time in a row Investors411′ Your Stock List has outperformed its benchmark – the S&P 500 LINK here (scroll down)

We’re looking for a few good stocks from all of you. Paul & I will evaluate them and come up with  YOUR Stock List #5 - So email to me or post in the comment section YOUR choices for YSL #5

The Borgias Soundtrack by Trevor Morris

The Borgias

To many the right wing represents a marriage of an uber wealthy banking cartel and religion. This theme can be seen in both Yankee Bob’s editorial and the Greek bailout. It sure looks like Yankee Bob got passionate when he shifted to all capitals.

Lets remember how massively unpopular the Vietnam War became. Now the revisionists claim that we lost because we lacked the will to win. Same as Iraq and Afghanistan. They completely ignore how unpopular the war was and that THERE WAS NO STRATEGIC INTEREST FOR THE US IN VIETNAM BUT WE STILL TRIED TO BOMB THEM INTO THE STONE AGE AND POISON THEIR LAND. NOW WE TRADE WITH THEM.

WE HAVE NO STRATEGIC INTEREST IN THE CURRENT WARS OTHER THEN TO MAINTAIN THE FLOW OF OIL AND OIL PROFITS FOR MULTINATIONAL OIL COMPANIES. WE DON’T HAVE TO BOMB THE AFGHANS BACK TO THE STONE AGE BECAUSE THEY ARE STILL THERE, BUT WE USE OUR SMART BOMBS ON THEM ANYWAY  TO MAKE THEIR BIG PILES OF ROCK INTO SMALLER PILES OF ROCK.

WHY ARE WE NOT IN THE STREETS OVER  ……STOPPING THE SENSELESS WARS OF AGGRESSION,LETTING BP DESTROY THE GULF AND PEOPLE’S LIVES, AND NOT DOING MUCH ABOUT IT?

THE LACK OF WALL STREET REFORM,THE LACK OF A RESPONSE TO HELP THE HOUSING MARKET AND THE FORECLOSURES, THE TOTAL LACK OF JUSTICE AND FAIRNESS IN OUR TAX SYSTEM,THE STEADY EROSION OF OUR CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS, THE LACK OF A RESPONSE TO THE WORLD’S CLIMATE CHANGE ,THE WAR BEING WAGED AGAINST THE MIDDLE CLASS THRU DESTROYING THE UNIONS AND OUR SUCCESSFUL GOVERNMENT RUN PROGRAMS,THE DISGRACEFUL STATE OF OUR HEALTH CARE SYSTEM,THE STAGNATION OF OUR WAGES AND HOW CAN WE ALLOW THIS NEW WAR AGAINST TEACHERS,PUBLIC SERVANTS,POLICE AND FIREMAN  BE HAPPENING?

THE ECONOMIC CRISES WE ARE IN IS FROM DEFICIT SPENDING WITH NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IT, AND THE LACK OF TAX FAIRNESS. THE WEALTHY AND THEIR MINIONS HAVE CAUSED IT, NOT OUR PUBLIC SERVANTS AND GOVERNMENT SOCIAL PROGRAMS.   YET THE RICH DEMAND EVEN MORE BLOOD FROM A STONE. WHERE IS THE CHRISTIAN RIGHT ? SURELY THIS GOES AGAINST ANYTHING JESUS PREACHED. IF JESUS CAME BACK TODAY THE RIGHT WOULD TOTALLY IGNORE HIM.

OBAMA AND THE DEMS ARE NOT HELPING! THE GOP IS TOTALLY RADICALIZED! IT’S TOO LATE FOR A THIRD PARTY1 THE ONLY SOLUTION IS TO HIT THE STREETS. REMEMBER! THEY STILL NEED OUR VOTES EVEN IF THEY DON’T NEED US !!!!!!

[Yankee Bob is an old friend and jeweler out of North Carolina]

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.21 Down
NASDQ +1.53 Down
S&P 500 +1.29 Down
Russell 2000 +1.51 -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

  • Another significant price rally, but in  even weaker and below average volume  It was  dominated by the High Frequency Traders and Bank trading desks.
  • One interesting aspect for those interested in the mechanics and short term trades is the vast majority of interday volume happens not at the major exchanges but in dark pools Here’s the video from Bloomberg

Rodrigo Borgia

Pope/Banking Cartel Leader/actor – Jeremy Irons

From Showtime Series The Borgia’s

  • Obviously the majority who invest in the markets feel the banks are getting a killer good deal over Greece and the people of Greece are getting the shaft. Remember the vast majority of market traders are HFT’s and/or major bank trading desks.

Its what they think that moves markets.

  • Oher views on Greece outside the CNBC and mainsteam American media from Arianna Huffington The money quote

“But here’s the bigger issue: Can a truly democratic movement break the stranglehold of corrupt elites and powerful anti-democratic institutional forces that have come to characterize not just the politics of Greece, but most Western democracies”

  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +38.95 (above +30 somewhat overbought , above +60 overbought, above +90 OMG overbought) Repeat - The MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months. Somewhat overbought = Bearish
  • $USD The Dollar fell  significantly -0.41% yesterday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. Most of this movement is based on Greece. A two day fall from highs has given stocks a big boost. Short term tend for stocks now = Neutral
  • Reading The Tea Leaves - Shorter term – Repeat- “Our MO chart has been very accurate in predicting short term tops and bottoms. So tea leaves say wait for an oversold or overbought levels to be reached before acting. The whole roller coaster ride of the last two weeks is a big spring winding.” An MO of +39 gives short term players an opportunity to short (or use ETF’s that short the market) any rally. The higher the MO goes the better your chances of a winning trade.
  • The algorithms that the HFT’s use have a pattern of selling when the MO gets this high. (see chart of MO above)

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought on a dip well over a month ago. Stock was up over +5%. The promised big dip (see earlier posts and comment section of blog) hit yesterday and NLY dipped -4.28% Call activity was big early this week as investors want to cash in on next dividend payout. Translation – This kind of drop has happened many times for NLY and other ultra high dividend stocks. (@13.5% dividend)

It’s the time to buy the dip if you feel NLY, as it has for many quarters, will hold onto the dividend. General market conditions could also hurt stock.

Gold /Silver Trade These commodities usually move the opposite direction of the dollar. Dollar is going up (mostly because European outlook is bleak) so gold/silver is going down.

Shorting Banksone major reason major US banks are underperforming stocks is that the Fed will on June 30th stop purchasing treasuries from them. This  cash cow and mortgage problems have have led this sector down. There are some signs (three weeks of flat trading)  that a short term bottom has been reached (see link above)

Repeat longer Strategy remains - Waiting for MO to hit overbought levels before acting. We started into overbought territory and will buy some SDS or TZA into rally.

  • Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative).
  • Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

_________________

The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply“We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are resolved.

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Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

The NEUTRAL in the forecast will vanish If/when we break the recent lows of the S&P 500 chart

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


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June 28, 2011

Remember When

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

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Why so many people who remember the past have problems with the right wing’s political agenda

Obviously we’re NOT going to punish the uber wealthy, unregulated free markets and greed that got us into this horrific mess.

No the right wing agenda is to force cuts ONLY on working class Americans.

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JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

More and more, US multinationals are laying off workers at home and hiring overseas.

What happened after the 2008 meltdown is globalized employers laid off workers in the USA. Term for this is disaster capitalism. They rehired them in other foreign countries.

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Lipstick on A Pig

GreeceToday the Greek parliament will vote on and probably approve austerity measured imposed by the IMF and European Banks. Germany’s leader has proclaimed “Greece will NOT be our Lehman Brothers.” Stocks should rally. But are we putting lipstick on  PIIGS

Here’s reality – The massive protestors outside parliament against this are all voters. Voters almost always vote their self interest and Greece is a democracy.

Greek parliament is made up of 303 seats and the ruling Socialists (PASOK) who favor the bailout have a thin majority of 155 seats. The #2 party, New Democracy (ND) has 86 seats. The ND other minor parties who are also against the bailout have less votes.

Two major polls show that instead of the 2 to 1 majority that the pro bailout party enjoys over the anti bailout ND party in Parliament, the ND party is now slightly ahead in popularity. All the other minor parties (Communist is the next largest) have also gained ground. One can easily infer that the Greek people by the level of anger (there is a two day strike now happening) and polling data that sooner or later this vast majority of anti bailout voters will gain power in Greece.

All the PIIGS countries in Europe face similar problems. Sure looks like its just a matter of time before the you know what hits the fan.


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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.91 Down
NASDQ +1.33 Down
S&P 500 +0.93 Down
Russell 2000 +0.92 -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

  • Another significant weak and below average volume rally that was most likely dominated by the High Frequency Traders and one of the last Fed Fed liquidity injections.(this link is to a very negative view of Fed seen by almost 5 million people – their are holes in it, but its funny and has some significant facts) injections.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +10.81 (below -30 = somewhat overbought, above +30 somewhat overboughtRepeatThe MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months. Still closest to middle of range and plenty of room for bulls or bears to work with = Neutral
  • $USD The Dollar fell  significantly -0.50% yesterday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. The dollar fell back after just barely making a short term high on its chart. Tend for stocks Bearish

  • Reading The Tea LeavesShorter term – From yesterday – “Our MO chart has been very accurate in predicting short term tops and bottoms. So tea leaves say wait for an oversold or overbought levels to be reached before acting. The whole roller coaster ride of the last two weeks is a big spring winding.”
  • Chart of NASDQ – Today we may see some sort of short term breakout – we are far closer to upside breakout levels.

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Paul’s Corner

Gloom and Doom?

The market is down, much of our profits have disappeared  and there is no hope in sight, right? Well looking at market internals, there just may be some life left in the market. Ian Woodward posted a great blog this weekend and here are a few points to consider.

LINK

Ian includes charts to show how the market canaries (NFLX, AAPL, BIDU, AMZN) are performing.

The market is currently range bound between 2700 and 2600 on the NASDAQ. So consider 2700 as resistance and 2600 as support. If we go through 2700 on good volume the market is “probably” gonna keep going. If we drop through 2600 next obvious support is 2500, so watch these numbers closely.

One of the ways we follow the market is to look at  stocks ERG numbers to see which way the market is going. ERG refers to Earnings Per Share, Relative Strength, and Group Strength of the individual stock. Assigning a number between 1 and 99 to each of the ERG components you can evaluate the health of any stock relative to the rest of the market. A week ago we only had 13 stocks with an ERG number higher than 270, this week ended with 26. Although extremely low numbers, it still shows there are some quality stocks starting to move. Also the numbers of stocks with “A” accumulation ranking is improving.

I have been keeping an ERG list for years and it’s a very good confirming indicator for the market.

Last Thursday I posted a list of stocks that have done well through this correction and in his blog Ian lists a  group of 25 that are currently doing well. Between these two lists there are some good stocks to consider IF this market takes off.

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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YOUR Stock List
Your Stock List #4 (YSL #4) which was closed when Investors411 changed its outlook on May 20th again outperformed the S&P 500 over the same period of time. Paul informs me that the results were -
  • YSL = +4.64%
  • S&P = +1.60%

Paul has the full results and I will post them in the POSITION Section of the blog ASAP.

This time out we didn’t do as well as we would have liked, but the results were still positive. Both Paul and I will go over what worked and what failed this week to create a better YSL #5

Since WE have toasted  the experts and beaten the S&P 4 times in a row Paul has already called for a YSL #5. – Send in entries to me or post them on the comments section of the blog.

Send a sort list of  three  or less socks you think deserve consideration.  Paul and I will go over them and choose 12 to 15 that should again toast the S&P 500.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought on a dip over a month ago. After a 5+% gain is has come down a bit last two days.

Gold /Silver TradeThese commodities usually move the opposite direction of the dollar. Dollar is going up (mostly because European outlook is bleak) so gold/silver is going down.

Shorting Banks - one major reason major banks are underperforming stocks is that the Fed will on June 30th stop purchasing treasuries from them. This and mortgage problems have have led this sector down. There are some signs (three weeks of flat trading)  that a short term bottom has been reached (see link above)

Repeat longer Strategy remains - Waiting for MO to hit overbought levels before acting

  • Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative).
  • Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

_________________

The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are resolved.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

The NEUTRAL in the forecast will vanish If/when we break the recent lows of the S&P 500 chart

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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June 27, 2011

The Squeeze is on

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Illustration – Mark Matcho/Mother Jones

Corporate America is flush with cash and profits are up 22% this year. Instead of an editorial, here are three charts showing what’s happening to growth, productivity, wealth, &  JOBS in the USA and other major democracies. You be the judge.

Rich Get Richer and  You Get Scraps

Growth is Back

But Not Jobs in USA

These are just three of a dozen eye popping and credibly sourced  charts found in Mother Jones. You can see where American jobs are going at the MJ Link. A WSJ chart will be featured tomorrow with this info.

Other democracies protect their workers, have far stronger unions, and unions work with both companies and their federal government to protect jobs and company profits.

Here working class Americans “fight over scraps on the table” and blame each other while the uber wealthy get richer.

A number of you have pointed out in the comments section on the victory for Gay rights/marriage in NY.  Popeye quotes the latest Gallop poll shows 52% to 43% now favor the NY approach as long as religious beliefs are respected.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.96 Up
NASDQ -1.26 Up
S&P 500 -1.17 UP
Russell 2000 -0.61 -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Reading The Tea Leaves Longer Term -On May 20th The long term outlook was downgraded and then again on June 7th.  A rough translation of this is 4 to 6 months there is a strong possibility that  the benchmark S&P will end up 10 to 20% off its high. There are two foreseeable economic problems that might cause us to reach 20% or a larger meltdown.

  1. Europe mishandling of their debt crisisThe bottom line is do European banks stay strong or is their a run on them because of the debt problem?This problem has been exacerbated by the 2008 financial meltdown
  2. Default on American debtAmerica’s role as a world leader and financial model has been seriously eroded in the past decade.  Polarized American politicians are playing a high stake game of chicken with the national debt and the remaining credibility of our financial/economic model in the eyes of the world.

Long term the later is probably a bigger problem.

Shorter Term Outlook.

  • US stocks fell in above average volume. This year, big volume declines didn’t seem to matter as long as the Fed had our back with increased liquidity. That vanishes in 4 days. The huge swings and indecisiveness of stocks is a reflection of this and other economic problems (see above)
  • Obama releasing petroleum reserves helps oil prices. The next time he does this it might not be as effective.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to -14.81 (below -30 = somewhat overbought, above +30 somewhat overbought ) Repeat - The MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months.  The last low was close to -70 and the MO has a way to go before reaching that.  = Neutral
  • $USD The Dollar rose  significantly +o.48% Friday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator)  The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. The dollar is now at new short term high For stocks short term trend = Bearish

  • Reading The Tea LeavesShorter term Our MO chart has been very accurate in predicting short term tops and bottoms. So tea leaves say wait for an oversold or overbought levels to be reached before acting. The whole roller coaster ride ride of the last two weeks is a big spring. winding.

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A Long Term Portfolio

Many Thanks to The Critic for sharing her portfolio. The Critic has been with Investors411 from the start and is a frequent contributor to the comments section.  The Critic is an executive at a major company.

The Critic largest position is in cash and has stated many times in the comments section that she has protected much of the below portfolio like JS by using Puts & short ETF’s (see comments section)  I’ve been working with Critic and another person in developing the lists of dividend stocks as long term investments. Again Many Thanks for sharing .

Disclosure I own many o the below positions.[Editor]

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Barr, most of these stock have done well since the start of the year, but the future is clouded.  Just remember to tell people that I’ve bought protection because of the potential risks ahead and I buy the dip. If you want to use them for Your Stock List feel free. Like all dividend stocks I choose only those that have flat or increased dividends.

  • NLY – Biggest fish in the high dividend group. Jim Cramer loves this stock.
  • AGNC - Little fish in the same group.
  • CVX - Oil Company with small dividend. Much better than Exxon because it buys back far less of its stock to prop up stock price.
  • MCD – Giant Food Company with smaller dividend.
  • KMP – Limited partnership – Tax considerations here, but I know the company and like it.
  • T – Phone company and a big one.
  • WIN – Phone company and a small one with higher dividend.
  • SNH – Buys senior properties. Unless badly managed this area has to expand.
  • DUK – This is my energy play
  • HCN – Health Care REIT
  • HTD - An ETF from John Hancock – Some tax advantages here.

These are the major dividend stocks in my portfolio. I have a some smaller position. and non related mutual and bond  funds. I own these long term because I don’t have time to watch markets day to day and for tax reasons.  Hope this helps.

PS – Barr, please remind people about risk.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought on a dip over a month ago.

Repeat longer Strategy remains -

  • Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative).
  • Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

_________________

The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply“We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are solved.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

If/when we break the recent lows of the S&P 500 that little bit of NEUTRAL still in the forecast will vanish

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE



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June 24, 2011

Walk Out

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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Republicans Walk Out

Eric Cantor (Republican House majority leader) has walked out of the deficit negotiations.

Reason – he will NOT compromise on tax cuts for the richest Americans

From the Wall Street Banksters to Hedge Fund Billionaires we have seen a huge transfer of wealth in the last 30/40 years. Peter Whoriskey from WAPO is latest to come out with data. So lets mix his data with Robert Reiche.

  • 1975 – The top 1/10 of 1% = 2.5% of US income.
  • 2008 – The top 1/0 of 1%= 10.4% of US income. (They earn over 1.7 million a year)
  • Today the top 400 richest Americans pay a  only a 17% tax rate.

Wall Street Banksters,(derivative investors/players that caused the 2008 meltdown) Hedge Fund Manager  and uber wealthy  who invest in the High Frequency Trades (They make $ off the imbalances in trades) and others pay only 15% on their capital gains tax.

The uber wealthy are protected by an army of lobbyist in congress and obviously Eric Cantor and Jon Kyle.  It also sure looks like the uber’s have a piece or perhaps all of Obama on their side too. He sure hasn’t stuck his neck out and lead in  this default crisis.

China

SHIBOR The highly volatile short term interest rate levels in China have come down, but the longer term 1 year rate is steadily rising.

The following is Good news for Europe (depending on your point of view) –  China working with IMF on Europe


_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.49 Up
NASDQ +0.66 Up
S&P 500 -0.28 UP
Russell 2000 +0.35 -

_________________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • Yesterday looked like a flat day in big volume, but it wasn’t. The real story is that high beta/high growth stocks exploded higher in increased above average volume
  • These volatile high beta stocks and ETF’s are the playgrounds of the High Frequency Traders with their black box algorithms.
  • From yesterday - The dominate traders out there are the High Frequency Traders (this is a must read link if you are a short term trader) that make up the vast majority of the volume @ 60+% each day. These traders with their mega computers & algorithms skim and scam the rest of us. (see link above) They distort volume, especially on the more active equities. In some was they do balance each other out, but they also create major distortions in short term trading.  Long term fundamentals will rule – A company/sector/market is going to move up faster because it is growing faster than others.
  • A rally is a rally no mater what entity(ies) is manipulating it – The Fed, HFT’s or whoever. Bottom Line –  investors/ traders no longer rule stocks, but major manipulators like HFT’s, The Fed, and other major entities do.
  • Major News of morning - Two Italian banks Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit have had their trading halted after falling about 8%.  Obviously bad news – how bad is in the details.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to +5.23 (below -30 = somewhat overbought, above +30 somewhat overbought ) RepeatThe MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months.  So we have rally room to till MO gets to +30 to +50 range. = Neutral
  • $USD The Dollar rose  significantly +o.79% yesterday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator)  The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks. Another rally day like yesterday and the 5/1 rally will have a new high. For stocks short term trend = Bearish

  • Reading The Tea LeavesShorter term – From yesterday – MO now neutral, and momentum with bears. Wrong about momentum High beta stocks were able to rally in increased volume, despite a significant move higher in the dollar. Most high growth/beta stocks make their $ abroad and a stronger dollar cuts their profits. When beta stocks rallied despite the dollar’s rise it showed strengthFor now the bulls are back

  • Our MO chart has been very accurate in predicting short term tops and bottoms. So tea leaves say wait for an oversold or overbought levels to be reached before acting.
  • Reading The Tea LeavesLonger Term - No change – See May 20th blog.

______________

Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought on a dip over a month ago.

TZA yesterday opened up a massive +4% higher and was way too high to buy.

Repeat longer Strategy remainsI’ll wait till the MO gets to at least +30 to short stocks

  • Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative).
  • Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

_________________

The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are solved.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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June 23, 2011

SHIBOR

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Shanghai Traffic at Night

SHIBOR

What the Hell is SHIBOR and why should I care.

Perhaps some of you know what LIBOR is because it directly tied to your mortgage rate or home equity loan. SHIBOR = Shanghai International Offered Rate. This is the standard interest rate Chinese banks offer each other.

Here’s the problem – China is the White Knight – that is supposed to come to the rescue of everything from European debt to the future growth of the world’s economy.  American companies are counting on China for cheap labor and future customers. – Here’s the problem almost no one is talking about –  Interest rates in China have significantly increased in the last week, few days.

The source I referenced above is often over the top and glorifies Ron Paul. But I think they have a point. Their headlining a blip to 9% rates today. That number is accurate according to the SHIBOR main web site.  I can’t find many major financial sources as alarmed as the original source. However I know China’s interest rate hikes this year are a major major concern for every investor. [Google "China Rate Hikes"]

Bottom Line - This is yet another reason to say - its NOT a time to have unprotected long assets. When China’s interest rates become a topic on financial channels markets will melt down quickly

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.66 Down
NASDQ -0.67 Down
S&P 500 -0.65 Down
Russell 2000 -0.81 -

_________________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • Volume was pathetic yesterday. In technical language – The big light volume rally on Tuesday was not confirmed . In English – Bulls thought they had something going, but retreated with heir tails behind their legs.
  • Fundamentally, Fed met and Bernanke gave no indication of more QE (liquidity) So bulls ran for cover.
  • The dominate traders out there are the High Frequency Traders ( this is a must read link if you are a short term trader) that make up the vast majority of the pathetically light volume @ 60+% each day. These traders with their mega computers & algorithms skim and scam the rest of us. (see link above) They distort volume, especially on the more active equities. In some was they do balance each other out, but they also create major distortions in short term trading.  Long term fundamentals will rule – A company/sector/market is going to move up faster because it is growing faster than others.
  • Major Lesson I learned. From topic – “The Silver Lining(Investors first mentioned this on 6/17 and it was concluded yesterday) = too many investors were buying Put positions. (betting markets were going down)  Everyone was on one side of the trade so there were few left to sell and because of the technical imbalance we had what is called a “short covering” rally. The following is a link to the chart of the Put to Call ratio. Lesson – When the number of Puts get too high (unless its Enron or some obvious impending doom) short term players can make some quick money by going long.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to +15.35 ( below -30 = somewhat overbought, above +30 somewhat overbought ) From yesterday – The MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months. So it sure looks like our four day rally will run out of room very soon. There is a series of lower highs on the MO chart that s very bearish in the long term. MO right nowNeutral
  • $USD The Dollar rose  +o.34% yesterday. ( +/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator)  The trend since May 1 is bullish for dollar and bearish for stocks For stocks short term trend = Neural

  • Reading The Tea LeavesShorter term – From yesterday –  ”MO shows we’re technically entering overbought territory. Advantage bears. Can’t help thinking all those put positions were the reason for the rally. Now that the # of Puts is back to normal, we are close to overbought, and only a week and 1/2 of Fed money remains to juice stocks the bears case should gather momentum.” MO now neutral, and momentum with bears.

  • Reading The Tea LeavesLonger Term - No change – See May 20th blog.

_________________

Paul’s Corner

Your Stock List

Your Stock List 4 certainly took it lumps with the end of the bull run that we enjoyed since last September. Selecting stocks at the end stages of a  bull run is often difficult and your chances of making money is slim.  It’s time to retire this beaten warrior and start researching a new “Your Stock List”

[Editors note - See/LINK to POSITIONS Section of Blog (scroll down to bottom) for May 20th recommendations on YSL and the list of stocks]

Kindly make your suggestions to Barr for review. CPHD and ABC should remain from YSL 4 so we need 12 to 14 new stocks for the list.

HGSI screens have produced an interesting list of quality growth stocks that have ignored this correction. For your review, a few charts with excellent credentials.

SBH – Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution and retail of professional beauty supplies. The company operates in two segments, Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group.

UA – Under Armour, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes performance apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, and youth primarily in the United States, Canada, and internationally.

HOC – Holly Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petroleum refiner in the United States. It produces light products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, specialty lubricant products, specialty and modified asphalt, liquid petroleum gas (LPG), carbon black oil, and gas oil/intermediates

CRS – Carpenter Technology Corporation engages in the manufacture, fabrication, and distribution of specialty metals primarily in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Mexico, and Canada.

TUP- Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products.

HS – HealthSpring, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a managed care organization in the United States. It focuses primarily on Medicare, the federal government sponsored health insurance program for the U. S. citizens aged 65 and older,

RBN -  Robbins & Myers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies engineered equipment and systems for various applications in energy, industrial, chemical, and pharmaceutical markets worldwide.

CROX - Crocs, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and children.

FOSL – Fossil, Inc. designs, develops, markets, and distributes fashion accessories worldwide. It offers a line of fashion watches under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and through licensed brands, including ADIDAS, BURBERRY, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, MARC BY MARC JACOBS, and MICHAEL KORS.

FTO – Frontier Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining crude oil and marketing refined petroleum products. It purchases crude oil to be refined and markets the refined petroleum products,

OME – Omega Protein Corporation processes, markets, and distributes fish meal and fish oil products in the United States. It produces and sells various protein and oil products derived from menhaden, a species of wild herring-like fish found along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. (Just added to the Russell 3000 index)

ZAGG – ZAGG Incorporated designs, manufactures, and distributes protective coverings, audio accessories, and power solutions for consumer electronic and hand-held devices.

Disclaimer, no buy or sell recommendation is made for any stock listed in this post. Understand?

______________

Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought on a dip over a month ago. This stock  is up almost 5% since purchased and has a dividend of @ 13.5%

TZAETF that is 3 times short small cap stocks Sold remaining TZA near open at 38.30 for -5% loss. When you add in the rest of the recent TZA trades +8% & +4% total = @ +2%

Mea CulpaSelling TZA yesterday was probably a big mistake.

From yesterday -The short term player in me wants to sell this position (futures are down so TZA will rally at open) and buy back in at a better point. The long term investor wants to hold onto this. I’m leaning short term. I’m influenced far too much by short term trading blogs and almost all of you want something to buy and hold. You’ve repeatedly told me you “have a life “ and don’t have time to watch things on daily basis.

Like many of you I believe in DIVERSITY. I have a portion of my portfolio in long term holdings (mostly dividend stocks) and have protected them by owning some ETF’s that short the markets SDS & TMZ. I have discussed this in the blog and with many of you that have my email address. SDS & TZA are insurance for potential price falls. I will continue to protect my long positions until further notice.

Investors has gone over Dividend Stocks over the past couple of months and when I have the time I’ll compile this and put it into one section and post it the POSITIONS Section ASAP.

Repeat Strategy remains

  • Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative) Will buy more TZA or SDS near open.
  • Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY, & TZA as well as a group of dividend stocks – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

_________________

The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are solved.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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June 22, 2011

Einstein on “Insanity”

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,
Albert Einstein is reported to have said that insanity consists of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”

Best Editorial out there on Bankster crisis in Europe begins with the above line and is from Financial Times

Yesterday’s vote that keeps the current Greek government in power was by a very narrow 7 vote margin (out of 300). We have years of these votes in over a half dozen European countries and obviously many more in Greece. Outside the Greek parliament a huge crowd of anti government protestors let their feelings be known. There were no pro government demonstrations.

This vote is close to the first P to K4 move in more than a half dozen European debt chess games. This crisis is just starting and going to be here for years to come. The FT editorial calls for some pre-emptive solutions. I hope they come to pass.

_____________

Bond KingBill Gross“I simply think a default of six, twelve days, eighteen days, not only sends the wrong signal, but a disastrous signal to the world credit markets,”  Republicans are threatening this.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up aInvestopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow big rally Up
NASDQ Up
S&P 500 Up
Russell 2000 -

_________________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • US socks had a major rally in increased, but below average volume.
  • Major fundamental reason for rally - the anticipation of Greece’s government (socialists) staying in power. Vote 155 – 143 – 2 abstained with large crowd of anti government protesters outside. The opposition is center/right parties. This the opening move of perhaps a half dozen chess games on possible default/restructuring of debt in European countries that will take place over next few years. Latest is Credit Default Swaps in Greece are rising this AM
  • From last Friday. “The Silver Liningwas too many investors were buying Put positions. With an imbalance or multi year high of short positions a whole bunch of short term traders were caught on the wrong side of  a rally. The following is a link to the chart of the Put to Call ratio. It now shows a slightly below average put/call ratio. Investors411 will use this forecasting tool in the future when the Put/Call ratio gets out of balance.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +27.25 ( below -30 = somewhat overbought, above +30 somewhat overbought ) The MO has been unable to get above the +30 to +50 range for 6 months. So it sure looks like our four day rally will run out of room very soon. = Neutral/Bearish
  • $USD The Dollar fell a significant -o.72% yesterday. ( +/- 0.50 is a significant move)  The trend since May 1 is bullish, but the last few days are ruled by bears. For stocks trend = Neural/Bearish

  • Reading The Tea Leaves - Shorter term – MO shows we’re technically entering overbought territory. Advantage bears. Can’t help thinking all those put positions were the reason for the rally. Now that the # of Puts is back to normal, we are close to overbought, and only a week and 1/2 of Fed money remains to juice stocks the bears case should gather momentum.
  • Reading The Tea LeavesLonger Term – No change.

______________

Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought about a month ago.

TZA - ETF that is 3 times short small cap stocks Bought 1/2 TZA position at 39.75 about  10 days ago. Have already cashed in a 6% gain in TZA. The remaining 1/2 TZA now at 37.71 almost a -6% loss.

The short term player in me wants to sell this position (futures are down so TZA will rally at open) and buy back in at a better point. The long term investor wants to hold onto this. I’m leaning short term.

Repeat Strategy remains

  • Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative) .
  • Sell long positions into any rally -

Disclosure - I own NLY, & TZA as well as a group of dividend stocks – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

_________________

The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are solved.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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June 21, 2011

Banker’s Rule

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Mugshot

James Verone

Sorry Server was down most of the morning  - so here’s a quick mix.

  • Markets rallied in pathetically low volume.  Our MO indicator says thing are not oversold and back to neutral. Financial stocks took a hit yesterday.
  • Greek gov’t has confidence vote tonight. It will pass. This should rally stocks. Key is the size of demonstrations in front of parliament. Greek people feel banksters share responsibility for crisis and should be held accountable not just people of Greece.  This crisis through out Europe is going to be twisting in the wind all through summer and beyond. Besides its debt problems Greece now has to pay almost 30% interest rate on its bonds.
  • Banksters are calling the shots in Greece as they have since the 2008 meltdown. “The epicenter of the new crisis is Greece, which epitomizes the folly of banker rule.- Bob Kuttner
  • SHIBOR rockets to 8.6%Translation =  China has a significant exploding inflation problem that crucial to economic worldwide growth.  Not good news.
  • Lots of blogs headlining how you can get health care for $1.00. Story of James Verone who desperately needed medical attention so he held up a bank for $1.00 then say in a chair to wait for police.  He now gets free medical care. – The money quote from Verone - “When you don’t have your health you haven’t got anything.”
  • Read of tea leavesshort term rally continues on Greek news. No change in long term outlook or strategy.

Paul’s Corner

1st Official Day Of Summer! Wow! Market futures are up, time to jump back into the pool?

Yup at 6:30 this morning market futures are up and you know what that means, once the market opens at 9:30 all bets are off. Great place to put your money, eh?

Yesterday was an up day and many of the indexes finished up but it was done on low  volume.

The bulls are trying to make a stand but there appears to only be a few bulls ready for action.

David Garlardi, an HGSI user, posted a link to an interesting article “Economies are slowing around the world…

LINK

The last line is important “The US dollar gained against the Aussie dollar and other major pairs as investors’ risk appetite diminished following the minutes. ” If this indicates a change in the direction of the US dollar, a strong dollar equals a weak market. (Interesting, the world economy is slowing, I GUESS Obama’s policies really don’t work)

Bio-Tech led the way yesterday in the high demand stock search, 2nd and 3rd have some of our old favorites:

Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods (5.00%, 5 securities)

  • Fossil  Inc. (FOSL)
  • Lululemon Athletica  Inc. (LULU)
  • True Religion Apparel  Inc. (TRLG)
  • Under Armour  Inc. (UA)
  • Warnaco Group  Inc. (WRC)

Specialty Stores (4.00%, 4 securities)

  • OfficeMax Inc (OMX)
  • Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG)
  • Tractor Supply (TSCO)
  • Zale Corporation (ZLC)

So what’s the market going to do today, futures are up this morning, is this a new morning in America or another fakey before the BIG crash? Let’s load up Quote Tracker………here we go folks another day of fun!

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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June 20, 2011

True Economics

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Robert Reich

Robert Reich

Economics in Two Minutes

In two minutes 15 seconds a Rhodes scholar, renowned economist and former Labor Secretary explains the structural economic problem of the USALINK

The video does a much better jobs than the points listed below.

  • Since 1980 our economy has almost double in size, but (adjusted for inflation) salaries have barely increased. Where did the money go?
  • To the super rich (top 1%) who used to take home 10% of the wealth & now take home 20%. It’s given them a total of 40% of today’s total wealth in the USA.
  • With the wealth they buy political power. In 1980 their tax rate used to be 70% and now its 35%, and a major major portion of that wealth is taxed at 15% – the tax on capital gains. The wealthiest 400 only pay a 17% tax
  • This created a huge budget deficit. Schools, roads, and many safty nets that protected the middle class have and will be further cut
  • America’s middle class no longer able to survive on the scraps left by the wealth  turns on each other. The flames of hate are even fueled by the wealthy. – Union against non union, native born against immigrant,  one race against another, one religion against another, public employee against private.
  • The middle class no longer able to borrow as before  and diminished in assets = an anemic recovery. The only way we can have a strong economy is to have a strong middle class.

We all want government to be more efficient, but its long past time for the USA to start building its middle class like Brazil, China and so many other countries are doing.

Thanks to several of you who sent me this video and Paul for posting it in the comments section.

_____________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

_____________

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.36% Up
NASDQ -0.28% Up
S&P 500 +0.30% Up
Russell 2000 +o.03% -

_________________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Parthenon

  • The potential of a Greek Default is by far the single largest fundamental that is currently impacting stocks. This has gone far beyond Alan Greenspan calling the odds of a Greek default “almost certain,” … and could drive US into a recession. Or the #2 at PIMCO (the world’s  #1 private bond company) saying Sunday “Europe risked wasting more money for nothing if it kept pumping billions into the weak Greek economy.”
  • The number of sophisticate investors buying insurance against the potential of Greek default negative impacting US stock markets is as high as it was during the Lehman Brothers collapse. The following is a link to the chart of the Put to Call ratio. The chart shows the greatest number of Puts (bets the market/stocks will go down) since Nov 2008/Jan. 2009.

  • The Silver Lining - If some sort solution to the Greek crisis occurs, all those put buyers will get caught with their pants down and we will have one hell of a rally. Usually this number of puts indicates a market reversal. However fundamentals over Greek debt rule.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to -31.20below -30 = somewhat oversold, below -60 = oversold, below -90 OMG oversold) The lower the MO goes the more the chances for some sort of rebound. Stocks are now moderately oversold.
  • $USD The Dollar fell a significant -o.79% Friday. ( +/- 0.50 is a significant move) There have been many major moves in the dollar as the Greek crisis builds. Although we had a big fall Friday, the last 7 weeks are clearly bullish.  This is money coming out of the Euro (because of Greece and into dollar) and moving into the dollar. For stocks trend = Bearish

  • Reading The Tea Leaves – The training wheels come off the US economy June 30th as QE #2 ends. Greece’s debt crisis overshadows Irelands (just as bad) and Portugal, Spain and Italy follow. All this is exacerbated by unregulated derivatives that the US introduced to the world’s banking system. It’s impossible to to call exactly when Greece defaults (some say it may not default) and how the panic will spread.  However there is great downside risk.

  • Reading The Tea Leaves - Longer Term (repeat) -  ”See May 20th blog for forecast for this summer.

The Dead Bull, Dragged From the Ring

Our bull market has survived a a catastrophic nuclear disaster, bank foreclosures, unemployment, shadow capitalism, revolutions and a whole lot more as the Fed had our backs with liquidity. Now that liquidity (QE #2) is over in two weeks and if Greece collapses Investors predicts – the bull will die.

___________________

When Bears Rule

Right now, instead of  joining the Chicken Little’s running around with their heads chopped off many sophisticated investors are protecting their assets

We’ve learned from experience everything from cash to housing values can go down in value. There seems to be NO financial armageddon looming, but their are ways to buy insurance or hedge against bears ruling. Investors has recommended several and they are listed in the POSITIONS Section of the blog and below

If the markets go down you can make money by using ETF’s (market baskets of stocks) that short the market (they go up as stocks go down). Here’s a list of some from the least risky to the most.

  • SH (Short the S&P 500)
  • SDS (2x short S&P 500)
  • TZA (3x short small cap stocks)
  • More sophisticated investors can place calls on these three ETF’s or puts on long ETF’s, or use puts,spreads etc.

By no means is Investors411 recommending that anyone go all in any of the above positions. But they can help if bears rule. You can also follow Investors411 hypothetical portfolio below. Since Investors made its May 20th negative call on the US stocks the benchmark S&P 500 has gone down from @1340 to 1270 or lost about 5%.

  • SH gained @+5%
  • SDS gained @+10%
  • TZA gained @+17%

Simply put stocks go down and you make $. Investors has outlined some of the risks since 5/20 (today – see Silver Lining and Greek debt above for updated risk assessment)

Obviously some strategies can get complicated and difficult. You have to choose just how much  you want to risk. Do you want want to hedge/insure against a small portion of your assets,  go all in or something in between.

Bottom Line - Using an ETF that shorts the market is no different/riskier than using one that goes long. The skill/luck is choosing the right direction and evaluating how much to risk.

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Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought about a month ago.

TZAETF that is 3 times short small cap stocks Bought 1/2 TZA position at 39.75 about  10 days ago. Have already cashed in a 6% gain in TZA.  Hope to buy more today in rally.

Repeat Strategy remains

  • Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative) .
  • Sell long positions into any rally -

DisclosureI own NLY, & TZA as well as a group of dividend stocks – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

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Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

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The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies and/or Euro defaults are solved.

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Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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June 17, 2011

#37

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

A TV AD

Why start with A TV ad? Because its the most memorable minute long TV add I’ve ever seen. Its based on a movie The ExorcistMany Thanks to subscriber ER for sending it in.

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Screen Shot 2010-04-05 At 11.32.49 Am

#37

This is no surpriseAnother major scientific study of our health care system in the USA ranks us as #37 in the world WE, again no surprise, pay 50% more for this health care than the European Democracies. If you can get into one of the top hospitals you’re in luck, otherwise hope you are in another major democracy that has decent heath care if you get sick.

If independent scientist study something, mainstream media almost always ignores it.


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England Get’s it Right

Congratulations to England –  “Finance minister George Osborne announced a major overhaul of Britain’s banks, approving a separation of their retail and investment businesses to help avoid another global financial crisis.”

Major investment banks backed up by CNBC, Fox News and others are screaming at Obama’s weak financial reforms here. Political candidates are falling all over themselves courting Wall Street banks. Chances of reform like this happening here are about the same as either the Red Sox or the Yankees NOT making the playoffs.

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Greece

Almost the entire investment world’s eyes are focused on when will Greece default. Some key points.

  • The major point here is this will be no ordinary defaultThere are trillions in derivatives on Greek loans that will have to be paid when Greece default. Like the Lehman collapse this multiplies the seriousness of the situation.
  • All major banks are trying to find others that will buy their toxic Greek derivatives. Perhaps a major reason this process is going so slow.
  • Ireland is in the same boat and perhaps Portugal (China seems to be backing them)
  • The chances of Greece NOT defaulting about as high as the Philadelphia Philies NOT getting into baseball playoffs.
  • Another reason to be bearish on US markets - The dominoes – Greece defaults = Euro falls = dollar rises = US stocks go down. Also – Who knows how many derivatives any bank has on Greek debt?

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.54% Down
NASDQ -0.29% Up
S&P 500 +0.18% Down
Russell 2000 +0.27% -

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.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

  • Basically flat market yesterday. Volume changes were minor. Worth noting NASDQ under preforming.  Almost every market guru  is shouting BEAR’S RULE The only possible silver lining to this dark cloud is when you get so many people on the same side of the trade, there is a potential for a quick, sharp reversal

  • It looked like US markets were going to meltdown yesterday, but about 3:00PM EST rumors of Central Banks in Europe threatening intervention and everything changed. Central Banks are manipulating currencies and therefore stocks. They can manipulate for a period of time, but eventually market forces (a default in Greece or elsewhere) will trump.
  • The key situation that almost all investment eyes are focused on is Greece and when it will default. Latest (5:27AM EST) on this
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose slightly to -51.27 ( below -30 = somewhat oversold, below -60 = oversold, below -90 OMG oversold) The lower the MO goes the more the chances for some sort of rebound. Obviously, we’re now close to -60 so pressure for rebound/rally is building
  • $USD The Dollar rocked higher two days ago +1.83% and was flat yesterday +0.01% (consider that Investors uses +/- 0.50 as a significant one day move) It broke out through resistance and formed a higher high on its chart two days ago. Yesterday  confirmed the massive move higher. . Big time bullish for dollar and for stocks which usually move inversely to the dollar = Bearish
  • CHART OF THE DAYshow inverse relationship between the dollar (UUP ETF) and the S&P 500

This is a 6 month chart. Dollar up usually means stocks down. Dollar down usually means means stocks up. Hopefully you can see why Investors411 uses it as a forecasting tool. The big volume shown under the end of April/beginning of May low makes that figure a strong support level.

Chart

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  • Reading The Tea LeavesShort term (repeat) - Staying with the same dead cat bounce pattern of lower highs and lows till it breaks down. Pattern in place since early May The dead cat rally bounced Tuesday and fell Wednesday and held/confirmed those losses Thursday = Bearish. Investors411 predicted an MO of -90 to -120 this summer. It may come sooner than expected.

  • Reading The Tea Leaves - Longer Term (repeat) -  “See May 20th blog for forecast for this summer.

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Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock. Bought about a month ago.

TZAETF that is 3 times short small cap stocks Bought 1/2 TZA position at 39.75 last Thursday.

Gold/Silver - RepeatNo trends except gold is out performing stocks and silver. A major editorial on this in near future.

Repeat -  More likely to add TZA than subtract. Would buy more TZA in small rally. I’ve been preoccupied with grandkids so have NOT had a chance to trade. I would have bought TZA yesterday and will try today to add to TZA on dip.

RepeatInvestors411 recommends using TZA or SDS as a hedge/insurance against losses in high dividend stock NLY and especially if you own other dividend stocks (see past month+ blogs on dividend stocks.)  This way you protect prices of dividend stocks against falling prices and still collect the dividend.

Repeat Strategy remains

  • Short any rally - Investors411 will use TZA (3X short small cap stocks) and SDS (2x short S&P 500 more conservative) .
  • Sell long positions into any rally -

DisclosureI own NLY, & TZA as well as a group of dividend stocks- I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

_________________

The Fed has moved from an expanding money supply to a neutral – No QE #3. Congress is threatening to contract the money supply. “We [the USA] need to grow at this point more than anything else.” Investors411 outlook will remain negative on the USA unless the Fed and/or congress return to more pro growth policies.

_________________

Longer Term Outlook

Neutral/CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


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