Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
July 27, 2011

Disaster Capitalism.

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Last Post For This Week

Disaster Capitalism

Disaster Capitalism [LINK to video]is a term used by Naomi Kline. JS in the comments section of the blog calls it “creative destruction.”

You create an economic disaster. and use the disaster not fix the causes of the problem, but to create a new economic structure.

  • Trillions spent on foreign wars
  • Trillions spent to fix disaster created by shadow banking system (bailouts, QE’s, Stimulus.etc)
  • Trillions spent on Bush tax cuts that give great benefits to wealthiest Americans

The bait and switch -  The current case is, obviously, to obsess on the debt and ignore the clear and present economic and jobs crisis

The corporate oligarchy uses disasters, their media, their lobbyists who own politicians to enhance globalized corporate wealth and devastate Main Street America.  The debt crisis provides a perfect cover for this to continue.

A Supposed American Icon Apple Computer

Example - Wildly profitable AAPL has been expanding massively in China. Foxconn,  the largest manufacturing company in the world and of AAPL products treats people like machines.

  • AAPL, while we have been fixated on wars and economic crisis, has been steadily outsourcing  jobs mainly to Foxconn and other foreign entities.
  • Labor is a fraction of the price, there are no pensions, no health care, and no benefits.
  • The Chinese peg their currency 50% of the USA’s. We have a 2.5% tax on Chinese goods and they have a 25% tax on our goods. This gives a huge added incentive to manufacture in China. All our polls allow this because they are dominated by the corporate oligarchy the profits from this.

The end result in a post Steve Jobs Apple will be moving even the corporate headquarters to China, because that’s where all the jobs and new consumers will be.

In the short term, globalized companies may take a hit if the US defaults, but this will also give them cover to send more jobs abroad or force the same economic conditions on US workers that the Chinese have.

These actions (from outsourcing to trade/tax policies) are being repeated by all major globalized US companies with the help of the vast majority of US politicians including POTUS.

How you can adapt to creative destruction/disaster capitalismLearn Mandairin and how to bow to Chinese/corporate masters.

______________

A better example would have been the bait and switch of US shadow banksters, but Investors411 has covered this topic many times.


_______________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.73% up
NASDQ -0.10% up
S&P 500 -0.41% up
Russell 2000 -0.79% -

_______________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Volume increased yesterday, but not significantly.  As mentioned in earlier posts, globalized  US stocks are NOT going to be as negatively impacted by the debt crisis/kabuki dance in DC as much as our economy and jobs.
  • AAPL, up eight days in a row, is almost singlehandedly kept US stocks solvent. Nothing goes up forever and AAPL is due for a correction.
  • Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed belowOf course the big dog out there is the debt crisis in DC. It trumps everything. If there is some favorable resolution for Wall Street (It may NOT be favorable for Main St) The lower the MO & dollar go the bigger the rebound higher for stocks.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to -36.58(-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold). We are somewhat oversold in the short term. The June low for the MO was @-70. Current Level Neutral/Bullish
  • $USD The Dollar fell significantly -0.80% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Chart shows dollar on its way to challenging the May lows. = Bullish/Neutral
  • Reading The Tea Leaves - Instead of focusing on the clear and present danger – the economy & jobs, the corporate oligarchy has created an immediate debt crisis.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Both Parties have drawn up last minute plans that they think help them get elected.  There may be a lot of political back slapping over some ineffective plan. The danger is this will be repeated over next years budget, and if Republicans have their way, before the election.
  • This would create added uncertainty over extended period and hurt the American consumer.
  • For Main Street USA the continued uncertainty will be devastating. No ones working on job creation and if you cut current government spending there will be even less jobs. How do you fix any deficit without jobs? For Wall Street the results will be negative. Globalized companies that make their profits outside the USA will profit in the long run.

.

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

Monday’s Headline Repeated

PROTECT YOUR MONEY

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – This was the one stock I thought could weather what will be a repeated debt crisis storm, because during the 2008 meltdown it produced double digit returns (one of you mentioned this in the comments section)

In  my personal portfolio I have a Put position to protect NLY -

All the blow concepts  considered because of the potential of a US default.

Check the comments section of blog during day because at least one of these positions will be added to hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

GLD & SLV – Gold is at a new high.

UDNAn ETF that shorts the dollar.

BZF - ETF that tracks Brazil’s currency. Big breakout to new highs. Major mistake not to buy this currency.

What about cash?Realize that as the dollar falls your cash becomes less valuable relative to other currencies. Interest rates may explode if the US does not honor its debt (example Greece) This too would make your cash less valuable.

DisclaimerPersonally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY. I have placed puts on one ETF of a major index and a couple of dividend stocks. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

JS in the comment section has used the term ”insurance” to describe the way ”Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

________________

Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

_________________

Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

Longer Outlook for US stocks downgraded from CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH to NEUTRAL

_________________

Longer Term Outlook (for US stocks)

NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
July 26, 2011

Life in a Day

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Life in a Day

24 hours in the Life of the world

Sometimes instead of just listening to and analyzing the darkness, you need to turn on a light.

This short trailer from a National Geographic film, produced by Ridley Scott, directed by Oscar winner Kevin Macdonald brought tears to my eyes.

It simply shows how, across the wold we are all so alike. Here another “teaser” viewed by almost 3 million people

I believe the film opens this week.


_______________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.70% down
NASDQ -0.56% down
S&P 500 -0.56% down
Russell 2000 -1.24% -

_______________

.

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Light volume decline yesterday, shows little anxiety over the debt battle in Washington that American Corporate media is hyping to the max.
    • If emerging market growth is the world’s hope for the future, the chart of the major ETF for them EEM is at best NEUTRAL
    • Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below -
    • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell to -22.10(-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold). We’re starting to approach oversold levels – However – still lots of room for MO to move higher or lower. Current Level = Neutral
    • $USD The Dollar fell slight;y -0.18% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Dollar has flattened out for 3 days after breaking moving down through a technical support level = Bullish/Neutral
    • Reading The Tea LeavesFor reasons stated last Fridaymy read of the tea leaves is stocks will NOT have as negative a reaction to the manufactured political debt debacle as the US economy, housing prices, inflation, jobs  and economics in the USA does.

    Longer Term Outlook

    weeks, month, months

    • May 20th forecast still relevant. From last Friday CautionChanges in long term outlook are subject to change because the trend is not yet firmly established. It’s a well established fact that both political parties in the USA care far more about their own interests (staying in power) than the American people. Because of this political uncertainty,  we are going to suffer economically and this will be a drag on a stock market that is overflowing with profits.

    ______________

    Paul’s Corner

    Hello world, it’s July 26, the heat wave has backed off a bit, futures are flat and the market is about to open, let’s RUMBLE!

    It was suggested to add ZAGG to YSL. As one who just enjoyed a sweet 19% gain in a week I have reservations at the moment about ZAGG. In my ever so humble opinion,  it’s a story stock and needs some strong earnings to convince me it’s worthy of YSL. I listened to the CEO on CNBC and frankly I’m not excited about some of his comments.


    “But but but, look at the chart you say!”  True ZAGG is a real rocket at the moment but look closely,  it’s very extended and needs to pause and refresh a bit.

    An easy way to determine if a stock is too extended to own/buy, is to pull up a chart  and plot the 200 and 50 day moving average. Currently ZAGG’s  200 DMA is 9, when a stock’s price doubles from the  200 DMA, institutions usually unload a stock. So if we double 9 we get 18 as an extended target and ZAGG is almost there.

    Another way to set an “extended”  target for a stock is to add 50% to the 50 DMA. ZAGG’s 50 DMA is currently 12 so if we add 6 to 12 we get a target of 18, and once again we are almost there.

    At the moment ZAGG is a  wee bit extended for anyone except a seasoned day trader and it finished with a hammer candle Monday and a hammer usually indicates a reverse direction of the stock. If you are interested in ZAGG, at least WAIT for earnings (Aug 8)  and then place your bet!

    The right wing nut jobs paint Georges Soros as some sort  of Liberal con man who controls the media for liberal causes. An interesting article this morning from Bloomberg paints a very interesting picture of Soros. A most interesting read.

    LINK

    This is a short report this morning, I spent Monday at Knoebel’s Grove Amusement Park yesterday with my grand kids and got in late.

    So what’s the market going to do today, the President and Congress are near a deal, is this a new morning in America? Let’s load up ThinkOrSwim………here we go folks another day of fun!

    Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to. Remember keep your words sweet because you never know if you’ll have to eat them later.

    ______________

    Current Positions

    Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

    NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend. Warning –  Took a big hit yesterday as did all the stocks in this sector. Down -2.66%  Unless you have some protection NLY and all these stocks like AGNC etc in the ultra high dividend sector are in trouble. Jim Cramer disagrees

    In  my personal portfolio I have a Put position to protect NLY -

    All the blow concepts are at least, in part,  considered of the potential of a US default

    GLD & SLV - Gold is at a new high

    UDN & UUP - Considering holding UDN – An ETF that shorts  the dollar. Another possibility in “Puts” on UUP – An ETF that is double long the dollar. Both have moved flat

    BZF - ETF that tracks Brazil’s currency. Big breakout to new highs

    Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks (also a couple other long term investments) including NLY. I have placed puts on one ETF of a major index and a couple of dividend stocks. I dropped one short position yesterday. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

    JS in the comment section has used the term ”insurance” to describe the way ”Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

    ________________

    See POSITIONS Section of blog for ideas

    _________________

    Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

    _________________

    Longer Term Outlook

    CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

    • Share/Save/Bookmark
    July 25, 2011

    Egg on Face

    Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,
    .
    Egg on Your Face
    .
    .
    It’s Egg on your face Monday. You choose the best from the list of candidates.
    • First, American media blathered on about Islamic terrorism, from the network that introduced bias fear based news FOX News to the supposedly liberal Washington Post. Then we learned the real TERRORIST in Norway was a white, right wing, Christian, fundamentalist TERRORIST. Just another example of how the Islamaphobic, fear mongering, biased news reporting in the USA have brainwashed American society and culture.
    • The scandal of the King of biased and greed based news reporting, Rupert Murdoch and his son James, keeps growing. These “hands on” leaders of  corporate oligarchy stated in front of the British parliament that they accepted NO responsibility and knew nothing about the 4000 hacked emails and police bribes. Involved individuals are popping up all over saying son James knew what everything that was happening.
    • Congress, in a completely manufactured crisis, votes on Ruining the American Economyover the debt ceiling this week (Headline from The Onion).  Many Right wing Republicans who have forced this vote, like real Islamic terrorists or Iran, would love to see our economy shattered/default.  Their main issue – Absolutely never compromise on one penny more of taxes for the corporate oligarchy or wealthy American.

    From Paul R in the comments section a must read editorial by Nicholas Kristoff Republicans, Zealots and Our Security

    rib4.gif - 3.5 K
    Congratulations to my wife Joyce and those of you who joined her on finishing the 3 day, 60 mile, Susan G Komen race for the cure of breast cancer in Boston. These exhausted people earned over $4.8 million dollars for  the cause.

    _______________

    KISS & Stocks

    (Keep It Simple Stupid)

    If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

    DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

    Index Percentage Volume
    Dow -0.34% Down
    NASDQ +0.86% Down
    S&P 500 +0.09% Down
    Russell 2000 +0.07% -

    _______________

    .

    Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

    One major goal this week –

    PROTECT YOUR MONEY/INVESTMENTS

    Right now our political structure is simply “the laughingstock of the world” (see Kristoff editorial) and we’ve hurt job creation by focusing on long term debt instead of the clear & present danger of job creation.

    For Republicans this is great politics, the more they focus on the debt and not compromising, the greater the uncertainty. The greater the uncertainty the worse both the economic and jobs situation will be. It is to their advantage politiclaly when the economy suffers becuse the 2012 elections are around the corner and they can blame the mess on Obama.

    According to perhaps the definitive source of news for the corporate oligarchy CNBC - Debt Deal Will Happen, Even as US Holds World ‘Hostage’: Analysts

    Corporations are overflowing with record profits as earning results have shown. Technically bulls are ready to stampede. The Chinese consumer in many eyes is already more important than the American. So what happens here matters less each day.

    However, this debt crisis will negatively impact our economy and the world more each day. We may be loosing our dominance, but we are still the big economic Kahuna.

    Obama has the 14th Amendment as a last  weapon to forestall a major meltdown.  It’s impossible to accuratly predict the chances of  a default on debt and how big it might be. (5%, 10%, 25% more?)

    So, the recommendation is to make sure you have some kind of protection in place in case a 2008 style meltdown happens.

    Other Points

    • For Republicans debt crisis is great politics, the more they focus on the debt and not compromising, the greater the uncertainty. The greater the uncertainty the worse both the economic and jobs situation will be. It is to their advantage politiclaly when the economy suffers becuse the 2012 elections are around the corner and they can blame the mess on Obama.
    • Europe restructured Greek debt last Friday. A bailout.

    _____________

    Thanks to everyone who sent in stocks for YOUR Stock List #5. We have over twenty to choose from and we will probably add a couple of our own.

    ______________

    See POSITIONS Section of blog for ideas on investing

    _________________

    Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

    _________________

    Longer Term Outlook

    CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


    • Share/Save/Bookmark
    July 22, 2011

    Pink Ribbon Friday

    Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

    PINK Ribbon Friday

    At 4:15 AM EST I dropped my wife off at the starting point for the 3 day, 60 mile, in what will be 100+ degree temperature  Susan G Komen “Race for the Cure”  in a Boston suburb.

    To all of you who have contributed to my wife’s or one of my daughter’s efforts (First Descents) to raise money and/or awareness of Cancer THANKS. For all YOU do to help others, no matter what the cause, (and lots of  YOU do far more than we do) another thanks.

    _______________

    YOUR Comments

    Often, like yesterday, the Comment Section (scroll down) comes alive with Stock Concepts (see Paul & The Critic) and political debates/information. The follow comment and reply have stirred some passions and thought provoking concepts.

    From Popeye -

    Paul –  So many misguided Americans fall into the trap created by the wealthy oligarchy that controls the media. 2008 is the example of them privatizing the gains and socializing the losses. (Barr’s phrase)

    Shadow banks etc. stole or manipulate trillions to themselves and their friends. Instead of focusing anger on those who caused the 2008 meltdown and steal trillions, the right wing media has  many Americans blaming each other, hating each other, fear mongering each other and fighting to divide the SCRAPS left on the table.

    Hate the teachers, hate the government workers, hate the unions, hate the seniors who get social security, hate the cops. They’re responsible for the 2008 meltdown and all the jobs going overseas. – WRONG

    I back those who are willing to work, and if being a liberal means that millionaires and billionaires should pay more for the damage they have cause then I’m a Liberal.

    What the oligarchy wants is to eviscerate government to nothing. Then without any check and balance they can squeeze what remains of the American middle class out of existence and replace us with the Chinese consumer.

    Reply From JS

    Popeye,
    You don’t have to be a Liberal to hate the banksters, and how they got away with it all. I guess you think the NYTimes and the liberal media that I mentioned are controlled by the right wing oligarchs.


    How did you, Barr, Paul and others get the info you refer to? You got it because you’re not lazy. So the big battle is who will control, influence the “great unwashed”?  Did they vote for Obama? I guess the right didn’t control the media or unwashed during that election. The right only controls the media  when the Reps win? The Dems can raise mucho dinero; look at all Obama has raised so far this cycle, even though the Wall street tycoons are cool to him this time. How about the 2008 election, who raised the most? The question, I believe, with all the money out there for the left, is why can’t they have a competitive cable outlet. What happened to Air America? This question has to be faced by the left. Are they that incompetent?

    _______________

    KISS & Stocks

    (Keep It Simple Stupid)

    If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

    DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

    Index Percentage Volume
    Dow +1.21% Up
    NASDQ +0.72% Up
    S&P 500 +1.35% Up
    Russell 2000 +1.07% -

    _______________

    .

    Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

    Shorter Term Outlook.

    day/days/week

    • Winner Winner Chicken Diner (the expression one of you uses in the comments section of the blog.) Every technical analyst out there sees major, increased, & above average volume on a significant upside day for US stock indexes. This follows an earlier major increase this week. All these analyst are telling their clients the rally has been confirmed
    • Repeat – Yesterday (2 days ago) was the confirmation day of Tuesday’s big rally. What we got is a weak confirmation – a slight decline but in weak volume. Technically this is a wee bit bullish. Yesterday the wee bit bull turned into a big time bull

    • As mentioned two weeks ago “If the US debt default starts to hurt stocks, politicians will fix the problem rapidly because their campaigns are all funded by an elite oligarchy of insiders.” However, it matters what investors worldwide think of our political/economic system. That confidence was shaken in 2008. Idiot politicians can further destroy this confidence with their inability to compromise.
    • Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below -
    • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +20.35 (+30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought, +90 OMG overbought). The more overbought we get the better the chance for a reversal to the downside) Still lots of room for MO to move higher or lower. Last high almost 3 weeks ago was +90. Current Level = Neutral
    • $USD The Dollar fell a massive -1.04% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Not only was the fall massive, but the price chart shows we broke through a month+ long support level. Very bearish for dollar, but for stocks = Bullish
    • Reading The Tea Leaves Solid earnings in tech stocks is bullish.
    • NB - There is also reason to believe that major US based International Corporations will do well or won’t suffer badly even if the US defaults in the short term. Main Street and our financial credibility will suffer far more with inflation, especially in the long term. Major globalized companies (example APPL, CAT, etc.) will benefit from the devaluation of the dollar. Their goods will cost less with a falling dollar.
    • Also, any default will cause chaos in the bond market and drive some of that cash into stocks. Clearly stocks should suffer, but the point is they may not take a big a hit as bonds, housing prices, and other asset groups more directly impacted by inflation/interest rates

    Longer Term Outlook

    weeks, month, months

    • May 20th forecast still relevant. However Technically the strong volume confirms the rally (see above explanation) and has changed the long term outlook to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. Caution – Changes in long term outlook are subject to change because the trend is not yet firmly established.
    • Repeat - It’s impossible to accurately predict how the politically manufactured Kabuki Dance over the debt will end. Therefore, hanging in their with a NEUTRAL Long Term Forecast. However, perception favors bulls.
    • Caution – This market is still dominated by High Frequency Traders and Central Banks.

    ______________

    Current Positions

    Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

    This sections needs to catch up with changing events – See stock lists of Paul & The Critic in yesterday’s comment section of the blog (scroll down)

    NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend.

    All the blow concepts are at least, in part,  considered of the potential of a US default

    GLD & SLV – Sorry again did NOT pull trigger on this trade. See yesterday’s comments section of blog.

    UDN & UUP - Considering holding UDN – An ETF that shorts  the dollar. Another possibility in “Puts” on UUP – An ETF that is double long the dollar. Shoulda, Woulda Coulda – Both these trades and BZF moved in the right direction. Waiting or a dip.

    BZF - ETF that tracks Brazil’s currency.

    Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks (also a couple other long term investments) including NLY. I have placed puts on one ETF of a major index and a couple of dividend stocks. I dropped one short position yesterday. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

    JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

    I firmly believe you can make money with BOTH long term investments and short term trades.

    See POSITIONS Section of blog for ideas

    _________________

    Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

    Don’t forget to send in your stock choices fro our new Stock List #5

    Deadline Friday 4:00PM EST

    _________________

    Longer Term Outlook

    CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

    • Share/Save/Bookmark
    July 21, 2011

    Default

    Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

    A Liberal Icon?

    .

    Default

    According to today’s Tea Party dominated Republicans, Ronald Reagan must look like a dirty liberal/socialist icon. He amassed the greatest increase (in percent) of national debt and then raised taxes over 5 times in the later part of his administration to bring his run away spending more into balance.

    Reagan and Dem. House Leader Tip O’Neill may have disagreed but they worked for compromise. However in the age of Murdoch ratings generated media journalism has changed.

    The no compromise brinksmanship of the Murdoch inspired far right Tea Party (Remember it was FOX news in the USA, like the now defunct  168 year old News of the World in Britain that did everything it could to instill right wing no compromise bias) has seemingly backfired on the far right.

    Poll after poll is showing the unwillingness to compromise on the part of the far right dominated Republicans as an overwhelming negative in the debt crisis debacle.

    A Member of the No Compromise Far Right


    Consequences

    It’s time to take a serious look at what may happen to your financial well being if the USA does default.

    Note - I don’t think this is likely (best guess 30% chance of no compromise) and if 8/2 does happen without a compromise I expect Obama to invoke 14th amendment.

    Therefore, Louise Story’s Wall St Makes a Fallback Plan for Debt Crisis is a must read.

    _____________

    KISS & Stocks

    (Keep It Simple Stupid)

    If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

    DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

    _____________

    Index Percentage Volume
    Dow -0.12% Down
    NASDQ -0.43% Flat
    S&P 500 -0.07% Down
    Russell 2000 -0.27% -

    _______________

    .

    Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

    Shorter Term Outlook.

    day/days/week

    • As the August 2nd deadline looms closer, more and more investors are going to take positions to protect against what happens to their money if the US does default. The fundamentals/earnings have been better than average, but fear of the consequences of default will rule.
    • Remember, FEAR is generally thought of by market psychologists as TWICE as powerful as GREED
    • Yesterday was the confirmation day of Tuesday’s big rally. What we got is a weak confirmation – a slight decline but in weak volume. Technically this is a wee bit bullish.
    • As mentioned two weeks ago – “If the US debt default starts to hurt stocks, politicians will fix the problem rapidly because their campaigns are all funded by an elite oligarchy of insiders.” However, it matters what investors worldwide think of our political/economic system. That confidence was shaken in 2008. Idiot politicians can further destroy this confidence with their inability to compromise.
    • Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below – The closer we get to August 2 the less these forecasting tools will matter.
    • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to -7.81 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold. The more oversold we get the better the chance for an oversold rally) Lots of room for MO to move higher or lower = Neutral
    • $USD The Dollar fell a significant -0.57% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicatorPrice chart shows we are in a month+ long trading range. It is still in that range, it broke though a major support level. It’s 50 day moving average. Normally I’s give this a Neutral/Bullish for stocks, But because investors are focused on the  US debt crisis = Neutral
    • Reading The Tea Leaves Solid earnings in techs are bullish, but all eyes still on US congress.

    Longer Term Outlook

    weeks, month, months

    • Repeat - It’s impossible to accurately predict how the politically manufactured Kabuki Dance over the debt will end. Therefore, hanging in their with a NEUTRAL Long Term Forecast. However, perception slightly favors bulls.

    ______________

    Paul’s Corner

    It’s  July 21 and TIMBERRRRRRRRRRR!

    The market? No RVBD, a former member of YSL, reported earnings Tuesday  after the close. It didn’t meet revenue expectations, and took a 23%  hit. This is a very important lesson as why it’s best  to wait until after an earnings release for a buy. Some times in a good up trending market one can gamble a bit prior to earnings, but 2 weeks or more prior to earnings is suggested.

    I trust  none of you folks were in still RVBD as it should have been exited back on Mar 18 when it dropped through the 50 DMA in the market down turn and it kept heading south. True it had a nice double bottom, but it wasn’t a good double bottom since the second bottom wasn’t lower than the first. Sure it had a nice climb up the chart with the strong market two weeks ago, but when it started ticking off prior to the expected earnings date profits were best taken.

    If you are the true BUY THE DIP optimist, have loads of spare cash and we were in an up trending market, a buy in this area could be a good gamble, IF you give it a few days to settle down before you dump your wife’s Christmas Club into RVBD. (Christmas Club’s, remember them?)

    Another YSL member FFIV reported after the close yesterday, met expectations and is off about 15% in after hours trading. FFIV is a competitor to RVBD and seems to being taken to the cleaners along with RVBD. Talk on Wall Street suggests “tech” isn’t a safe bet until September. Interesting forecast, we shall see. BTW FFIV’s chart has been horrible for months and sale was suggested many months ago by Investors411.com.

    Dave Steckler in his latest blog discusses the current market and  “Consolidation“. A new term for some and an important thing to watch for in the market. As always, Dave gives  a great chart lesson.

    LINK

    Off the stock subject, the current Republican front runner appears to be Romney. Great looking, charismatic, and knows how to talk the issues. He is touted as a job creator, but is he? Here is a good article from the left wing press Bloomberg, tearing apart his job creating myth. Remember this next fall folks!

    LINK

    So what’s the market going to do today, is this a new morning in America? Let’s load up ThinkOrSwim………here we go folks another day of fun!

    Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.


    ______________

    Current Positions

    Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

    NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend.

    All the blow concepts are at least, in part,  considered of the potential of a US default

    GLD & SLV - Will buy GLD today simply as a hedge against default.

    UDN & UUP – Considering holding UDN – An ETF that shorts  the dollar. Another possibility in “Puts” on UUP – An ETF that is double long the dollar.

    BZF – ETF that tracks Brazil’s currency.

    Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks (also a couple other long term investments) including NLY. I have placed puts on one ETF that shorts a major index and a couple of stocks. JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

    I firmly believe you can make money with BOTH long term investments and short term trades. See POSITIONS Section of blog for ideas

    _________________

    Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

    Don’t forget to send in your stock choices fro our new Stock List #5

    Deadline Friday noon

    _________________

    Longer Term Outlook

    NEUTRAL

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

    • Share/Save/Bookmark
    July 20, 2011

    It’s Free

    Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

    Lori Wallach

    Free Trade

    Whenever you hear the sale picth its Free, warning bells should go off in your head. The same is true for branding concepts like Free” Markets and Free” Trade.

    “Free Trade” is simply a branding concept used by major corporations and their politicians (From Obama to Bush)  Let’s use a few examples -

    • NAFTA the supposed free trade agreement of the early 90′s between the USA – Mexico and Canada cost the USA 879,280 jobs between 1993 & 2002.
    • Our supposed free trade deal with China – We tax Chinese goods at 2.5% and they tax our goods at 25%
    • Now we have a supposed “free trade” deal with with 3 more countries.  Example Panama – A global tax haven and money laundering center for major corporations/banks

    Here’s the LINK to a short video by Dylan Ratigan featuring former CEO of AT&T and Lori Wallach from Public Citizen Even when you factor in the lower prices of goods from abroad the average American looses” $7,000 a year” from the 11 “free trade” agreements.

    Corporate America dumped more jobs during the 2008 meltdown than any other time in history. Wall Street is recovering nicely, but Main Street America still suffers. How can Americans fix any deficit without jobs?

    _____________

    KISS & Stocks

    (Keep It Simple Stupid)

    If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

    DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

    _____________

    Index Percentage Volume
    Dow +1.63% Up
    NASDQ +2.22% Up
    S&P 500 +1.63% Up
    Russell 2000 +2.29% -

    _______________

    .

    Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

    Shorter Term Outlook.

    day/days/week

    • Moderately oversold US equities (-48 on the MO) had a big time rally in increased, above average volume.  News of some more rational Senators (Gang of Six – 3 Republicans and 3 Democrats) coming up with a debt solution that Obama would likely accept added rocket fuel to the rally.

    Apple Pie

    • APPL hit yet another earnings run earnings report after the market closed and is was up over 6% in after hours trading = Bullish. For those of you who think Apple is mom, USA and apple pie. 62% of Apple’s earnings come from abroad.
    • Today is the confirmation day of yesterday’s rally. Holding onto the rally or making further gains is bullish. Tech giants GOOG, AAPL, IBM and others are getting showered with profits . All are adding job after job abroad
    • Wall Street was sending a message to politicians over the debt crisis yesterday. Any hope of a bipartisan resolution is going to send stocks higher and a breakdown is going to send stocks lower. As mentioned two weeks ago – “If the US debt default starts to hurt stocks, politicians will fix the problem rapidly because their campaigns are all funded by an elite oligarchy of insiders.”
    • Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below
    • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell dramatically to -13.73 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold. The more oversold we get the better the chance for an oversold rally) Lots of room for MO to move higher or lower = Neutral
    • $USD The Dollar fell -0.35% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Price chart shows we are in a month+ long trading range.  For stocks= Neutral
    • Reading The Tea LeavesFrom yesterday-48 on the MO, is usually a figure that oversold stocks bounce higher from. But how high and far is up to the the fundamentals of Europe and US debt.”  -14 on the MO means there is a lot of room for stocks to roam. Solid earnings in techs are bullish, but all eyes still on US congress.

    Longer Term Outlook

    weeks, month, months

    • RepeatIt’s impossible to accurately predict how the politically manufactured Kabuki dance over the debt will end. Therefore, hanging in their with a NEUTRAL Long Term Forecast. However, perception slightly favors bulls.

    ______________

    Current Positions

    Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

    NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend.

    GLD & SLVStill waiting to buy. Will announce when in comments section of blog. Their price is linked most notably to US debt kabuki dance in congress. If we achieve a rational compromise, then gold will come down to a safer level to buy.

    Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks (also a couple other long term investments) including NLY and have placed puts on some of them and ETF’s. JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

    I firmly believe you can make money with BOTH long term investments and short term trades. See POSITIONS Section of blog for ideas

    _________________

    Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

    Don’t forget to send in your stock choices fro our new Stock List #5

    _________________

    Longer Term Outlook

    NEUTRAL

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

    • Share/Save/Bookmark
    July 19, 2011

    Turning on the Light

    Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

    .

    Turning on the Light

    So many spend so much time analyzing darkness instead of just turning on the light

    One such organization that turns on lights for Cancer patients is

    First Descents

    “Cancer taught me about death and First Desccnts taught me how to live.”

    Change a life

    From personal experience (a daughter who is a cancer survivor & she took me to one of their camps) I can’t begin to tell you in words the impact this organization has on the lives of everyone involved.

    Yea I hope you explore their site and get involved. But even more I hope that YOU have the courage to make your first descent into any new life enhancing challenge. Turn on a light.

    Take your first descent

    _____________

    KISS & Stocks

    (Keep It Simple Stupid)

    If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

    DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

    _____________

    Index Percentage Volume
    Dow -0.76% Down
    NASDQ -0.89% Down
    S&P 500 -0.81% Down
    Russell 2000 -1.55% -

    _______________

    .

    Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

    Shorter Term Outlook.

    day/days/week

    • About the only thing bulls had to cheer about was tuning a horrible day into just a bad one by the time US markets closed. Momentum clearly with bears.
    • Debt crisis in Europe is expanding. Interest rate on Greek 2 year bond rocketed to high of 35.19% yesterday. How is Greece ever going to be able to pay this back?  Most talking about major problems in Italy whose banks and bonds got toasted yesterday. Real problem –   European banks still make bets on bundles of securities (credit default swaps) You tend to cringe each AM as the rates for these CDS’s move higher.
    • The odds of the British PM staying in office over the Rupert Murdoch scandal went from 100 to 1 to 8 to 1 overnight.
    • Two of our most successful technical forecasting tools listed below
    • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell dramatically to -47.70 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold. The more oversold we get the better the chance for an oversold rally) We’re  somewhat oversold now, but momentum shows there’s probably more to come.= Neutral/Bullish
    • $USD The Dollar rose +0.48% yesterday (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Price chart shows we are in a month+ long trading range with slight, but erratic momentum for dollar bulls, For stocks= Neutral
    • Reading The Tea Leaves-48 on the MO, is usually a figure that oversold stocks bounce higher from. But how high and far is up to the the fundamentals of Europe and US debt.

    Longer Term Outlook

    weeks, month, months

    • It’s impossible to accurately predict how the politically manufactured Kabuki dance over the debt will end. Yesterday’s blog (click on date in calender at top right of blog) contained a tea leaves reading of what and why.
    • No asset class, with the possible exception of gold or shorting equities, could come out of this unscathed. Example – Cashworse case senerio - US defaults – Dollar implodes your US greenbacks become toilet paper. Inflation soars and your cash becomes burnt toilet paper. Of course, other asset classes will probably do worse.

    ______________

    Paul’s Corner

    Hello world, it’s July 19 and pre market futures are up, let’s RUMBLE!

    Eh excuse me! After a rotten day yesterday you actually expect us to believe it’s going to be a good day in the market you say?

    Well that’s just it, at the moment this is a news driven market and it’s dangerous to play in the market with your grand children’s inheritance. A stock or two at the moment Ok, but please don’t sink your cash hoard into the market quite yet. Ian Woodward has just posted another gem of a blog and it’s worth the read. It’s title “Stock Market Spooked: Send In The Clowns” sums it up nicely!

    LINK

    My favorite HGSI “High Demand Search” for July 18 shows the following top three groups had the action yesterday:

    Gold (18.00%, 18 securities)

    • Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)
    • Allied Nevada Gold Corp (ANV)
    • AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU)
    • Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
    • Buenaventura Mining Company (BVN)
    • Coeur D’Alene Mines Corporat (CDE)
    • Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)
    • Goldcorp  Inc. (GG)
    • IAMGold Corporation (IAG)
    • Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)
    • Minefinders  Ltd. (MFN)
    • New Gold  Inc. (NGD)
    • Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM)
    • Novagold Resources  Inc. (NG)
    • Randgold Resources  Ltd. (GOLD)
    • Richmont Mines  Inc. (RIC)
    • Royal Gold  Inc. (RGLD)
    • Yamana Gold  Inc. (AUY)

    Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods (9.00%, 9 securities)

    • Carter’s  Inc. (CRI)
    • Coach  Inc. (COH)
    • Fossil  Inc. (FOSL)
    • Hanesbrands Inc (HBI)
    • Lululemon Athletica  Inc. (LULU)
    • PVH Corp (PVH)
    • Under Armour  Inc. (UA)
    • VF Corporation (VFC)
    • Warnaco Group  Inc. (WRC)

    Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (9.00%, 9 securities)

    • Brigham Exploration Company (BEXP)
    • Energy XXI (Bermuda) Ltd. (EXXI)
    • EQT Corp. (EQT)
    • EV Energy Partner LP (EVEP)
    • Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR)
    • Northern Oil & Gas  Inc. (NOG)
    • Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)
    • W&T Offshore  Inc. (WTI)
    • Whiting Petroleum Corporatio (WLL)

    It’s interesting we have these groups as the top three groups once again, Gold, High End Retailers and O&G Exploration. It’s almost like a broken record. These groups keep coming to the top of the list. Perhaps the market is trying to tell us where to place your bet!

    So what’s the market going to do today, futures are up this morning, is this a new morning in America? Let’s load up ThinkOrSwim………here we go folks another day of fun!

    Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

    ______________

    Current Positions

    Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

    NLY Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a hit.  However through 2008 meltdown it still produced a double digit dividend.

    GLD & SLVShouda, Woulda, Coulda – I did not buy into any of the gold or silver ETF’s yesterday. Waiting for a dip is like waiting for Godot. Will try again today.

    DisclaimerPersonally I own a group of dividend stocks including NLY and have placed puts on some of them and some general ETF’s that track market indexes. JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

    _________________

    Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

    _________________

    Longer Term Outlook

    NEUTRAL

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

    • Share/Save/Bookmark
    July 18, 2011

    The Toxic Spider

    Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

    .

    “The Toxic Spider”

    Rupert Murdoch’s “News” empire is under siege.

    The man who is most responsible for tuning news into its vilest and lowest common denominator –  sensationalism, fear mongering, bias, hatred, manipulation, rigid partisanship etc. is embroiled in a worldwide scandal.

    The steady stream of influence peddling, bribery, hacked emails of parents of Iraq vets to kidnap victims that is coming to light  is exposing the greed based empire for what it is – A toxic media spiderweb  from Fox News & The WSJ to the London Tabloids.

    Many in the Murdoch empire have already resigned and been arrested  the Head of Scotland Yard has also reigned in wake of the scandal. Th FBI is now investigating in the USA.

    More sourcesBloomberg/Businessweek, John Nichols/The Nation, & David Carr/NYT

    Murdoch empire has been able for decades to throw millions at anyone who questioned their ethics or through the empire’s news machine crush his opponent. Perhaps this time the empire will spend billions to make it all go away.

    As one editorialist put it when this is all over the collectve intelligence of the english speaking world may be raised by a few IQ points

    _____________

    KISS & Stocks

    (Keep It Simple Stupid)

    If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

    DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

    _____________

    Index Percentage Volume
    Dow +0.34 Up
    NASDQ +0.98 Down
    S&P 500 +0.56 Flat
    Russell 2000 +0.66 -

    _______________

    .

    Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

    Shorter Term Outlook.

    day/days/week

    • Obviously a bad week for stocks. An OMG overbought market was the initial cause behind the pullback and worries over manufactured US Debt crisis ( “manufactured” = debt is generally not desirable, but this is not a crisis that has to happen now) and Europe’s debt problems.
    • GOOG’s earnings results led bulls on Friday. Earnings week in full force this week, but every investors is looking over their shoulder about negative consequences of defaulting.

    • The High Frequency Traders and major institutions dominate and manipulate US equity trades. HFT, manipulators have formed a lobbying group to clean up their image. Like most lobbying groups, this is supposes to make us sheep feel good about the wolves circling the flock.
    • Technically, the price charts of major US indexes looks like they may be building a bearish head and shoulders pattern. If support breaks, we could see some roasting and toasting of US equities,
    • Two of our successful forecasting tools listed below
    • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart fell dramatically last week  from OMG overbought to neutral. -11.80 Lots of wiggle room for equities to go higher and lower.  = Neutral
    • $USD The Dollar had a series of hyper interday swings last week-0.17% Friday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Prices tried and failed to break out to new five month highs. (see link to chart) The failure creates a strong resistance level and is bearish for the dollar in the long term  and therefore bullish for stocks. For stocks= Neutral
    • Reading The Tea LeavesFrom a week+ agoShorter term  - OMG oversold levels will be reached in any rally.  This put big pressure on rally to let off some steam. We did more than let off some steam from overbought conditions. Investors started to worry about US and European debt.

    Longer Term Outlook

    weeks, month, months

    • From Last blog Post on 7/6 – The key is to watch for is when Wall Street prices start to react negatively to the debt crisis. Longer term value  investors are taking necessary precautions to protect their portfolio due to the debt problems in Europe and the USA.
    • Reading Tea Leaves – I think the wealthy oligarchy that manipulates and makes money off US & other markets will not let the USA default on its debt. They to have too much to loose. On the other hand, there are many on the far right that feel they would benefit from the economic chaos that would occur.
    • Fear usually trumps greed, but when you drive a speeding car to the edge of a cliff and step on the breaks at the last second it may be too late to matter.

    We are entering uncharted waters where even holding cash may turn into a loosing position.

    ______________

    Your Stock List

    Repeat from last week

    Paul has published to a spreadsheet of YSL #4 in the comments section of the blog.

    Like the past 3 YSL’s is beat the S&P 500 our benchmark S&P 500 again, but this time our gains were meager in comparison to the other three YOUR Stock Lists.

    A new YSL is under construction. If You are on the email List send in your choices to me this week.

    ______________

    Current Positions

    Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

    NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Has dipped down into buyable position. Caution if we do have meltdown over debt crisis this stock will take a bigger hit.

    GLD & SLV - Gold has broken out to a new high and will probably surge higher today.  Silver should follow. Reasons for this is instability in Europe and US (debt crisis) Investors are rushing into these safer havens (especially gold) in anticipation of problems getting worse. I will probably add SLV to Investors411 portfolio or for those that can tolerate higher risk AGQ (ETF that is double Silver) (Warning on AGQ – it is tied to London trading exchange not US – see me if you want more on this)

    I’d prefer to add GLD or DGP (double gold ETF) but fear is will open too high and would prefer a dip.

    Long term Investors - GLD is by far the #1 investment (from over 20) that we have held in the non profit I’m Treasurer of. We have held a position in GLD for over 6 years.

    Disclaimer - Personally I own a group of dividend stocks including NLY and have placed puts on some of them and some general ETF’s that track market indexes. JS in the comment section has used the term “insurance” to describe the way “Puts” are used protect long term investments. – email me if you want to know more or post a question in the comments section.

    Obviously, day and swing traders are subject to some potential mega moves ahead in the market. Your stops may get busted and if you hold an issue overnight there is a chance that major US indexes could move dramatically higher or lower.

    _________________

    Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative Comments Section every day.

    _________________

    Longer Term Outlook

    NEUTRAL

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


    • Share/Save/Bookmark
    July 6, 2011

    Gone Fishin’

    Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: ,

    Investors411 in on summer break until July 18th

    [Stock Market Outlook Below - In Reading The Tea Leaves]

    ______________

    .

    There are four other major sections of Investors411.

    Check them out. If you do you will better understand why Investors411 stock results beats the benchmark S&P 500 every year and both the political & economic realities that impact stocks and the world. (all four sections are listed at top bar on the blog’s home page)

    • HELP/EDITORA users guide that is especially helpful to newer readers. It lists resources you can use to better understand concepts from how money makes the world go around to the Investors411 blog itself.
    • STRATEGY -Fundamentals rule the markets and technicals offer some traffic signals on the the flow of stocks. This section goes over the basics Investors411 uses to determine which pattern/trend is dominant.
    • POSITIONS - This section gives a half dozen different model portfolios and offers a general long term outlook for the year. A new dividend stock section and a YOUR Stock List section has been the favorite of many readers.
    • OVERVIEWMajor mega tends and how they impact history. The focus is economic and political. Because it takes political will to fix an economic problem. This section defines problems and offers solutions.

    Reading The Tea Leaves – 7/6/11

    Technicals

    • Last week we had a major 5 day bull market run in below average volume. Light volume is no surprise because our stock market is dominated by High Frequency Traders, Hedee Funds, Investment Banks, Central Banks (The Fed & others) and Soverign Weath funds (uber wealthy traders)
    • Overbought conditions stalled gains yesterday, as markets went sideways. MO dropped from an almost +90  or OMG overbought to +74. or overbought. (See previous posts by clicking on calendar at top right or using STRATEGY section of blog)
    • Because of the huge gains last week, the odds are the rally will continue once overbought conditions subside. We most likely will reach 2011 highs and may go beyond.

    Fundamentals

    • To understand fundametals you have to first understand who is doing the majority investing. Today – High Frequency Traders, Hedge Funds, Investment Banks, Sovereign Wealth Finds and their clients –  An elite uber wealthy oligarchy of insiders move markets though leverage NOT your average investor.
    • In the long term profits obviously matter. So earnings season’s results and forecasts (this 1/4′s results start reporting @7/11) are important.
    • Three foreseeable problems exist – China’s inflation, European Debit, (can was kicked down road on this for a couple months) and the upcoming potential default of American debt.

    Bottom Line- If the Fed and other central banks continue to support economies with liquidity stocks should do well. If the US debt default starts to hurt stocks, politicians will fix the problem rapidly because their campaigns are all funded by an elite oligarchy of insiders.

    The key is to watch for is when Wall Street prices start to react negatively to the debt crisis. Currently there is NO negtaive reaction.

    We dug a huge hole of over leveraged debt and for now the May 20 long term forecast still holds at NEUTRAL.

    However, there’s a lot of bullish momentum behind the move higher last week and those who missed may benefit by buying  the dip.

    DisclosureI own NLY and a group of  dividend stocks. I’ve used Puts as a protection while I’m away in case there is a major meltdown.

    If I were here I would probably be going long on some High Growth Stocks and ETF’s when MO dipped closer to neutral.

    _________________

    Longer Term Outlook

    NEUTRAL

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


    • Share/Save/Bookmark
    July 5, 2011

    Fancy Pants Debt

    Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

    .

    Fancy Pants Debt

    If YOUR eyes gloss over when they explain economics (and even if they don’t)

    This 3:49 seconds video is for you.

    YOUR investments dollars, from the stock market to your houses value, depend on the quality of debt. So does world economics. Good debt, Bad debt and Fancy Pants debt.

    The video is FUN, Entertaining, and educational.

    John  Green does more than explain the Greek Crisis “which has pushed the Greek government close to defaulting on its loans, the reasons why the Euro zone and the IMF are desperately trying to bail Greece out, and what the rising cost of sovereign debt means for the massive budget deficits throughout the developed world.”


    _____________

    KISS & Stocks

    (Keep It Simple Stupid)

    If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

    DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

    _____________

    Index Percentage Volume
    Dow +1.36 Down
    NASDQ +1.53 Down
    S&P 500 +1.44 Down
    Russell 2000 +1.52 -

    _______________

    .

    Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

    Shorter Term Outlook.

    day/days/week

    • Fifth straight rally day. Biggest 5 day gains in many many moons is bullish. Overall volume was almost pathetically light. Repeat -  Trading was, of course,  dominated by the High Frequency Traders (HFT’s) and professional trading desks . Most of this trading goes on in dark pools Here’s the video from Bloomberg
    • Technically, the huge 5 day move off a double bottom (prices make a low and test it – see charts on far right) is very bullish
    • Fundamentally last week -we kicked the Greek debt problem down the road. But Greek debt - benchmark 2 year bond is selling at 26%. Is virtually impossible to adopt a massive austerity program and pay a huge 26% interest on the Greek two year bond at same time. Also China said has the inflation problem is under control - Premier Wen. This fueled the rally. However problems in China this AM
    • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) chart rose to +89.65 (above +30 somewhat overbought , above +60 overbought, above +90 OMG overbought) This is just a fraction from OMG overbought levels. 2009 was the last time the MO reached over +100 (twice) This began a long term bull run. Short term  overbought = Bearish
    • $USD The Dollar stabilized after falling for a week. -0.06% yesterday. (+/- 0.50 is a significant move and the dollar is usually a contrarian indicator) Short term tend for stocks now. Will stability hold? = Bullish/Neutral
    • Reading The Tea Leaves - Shorter term  -OMG oversold levels will be reached in any stock rally. This put big pressure on rally to let off some steam. Repeat – Outside the HTF and Trading desks there are a bunch of normal day/swing traders who have missed the rally and are waiting to buy the first dip.

    The 5 Day Bull Stampede

    Long Term

    weeks/months/years

    • Still the risk of bad European debt and our own debt crisis confronting bulls. However, the silver lining investors see is low interest rates for a long time, a Fed managed US market and inflation fears diminishing in China and more time for banks in Europe cushion debt crisis. If there is a mediocre or poor jobs number (this Friday) this could even add oil to a burning hot fire that’s driving the bulls. Poor jobs = More Potential for Fed intervention and lower interest rates for a longer time.

    • Bulls are back and they see a light at the end of a tunnel. If fundamentals in earnings season are decent (starts next week and earnings should do OK) we could go on a run. We are due for a overbought mini dip, but a move of this size off a double bottom in a very strong longer term bullish sign. As we switch from a temporary timeout in European debt to our own manufactured (July 22 deadline) debt crisis fundamentals matter. Still too early to raise NEUTRAL rating.

    ______________

    Your Stock List

    Paul has published to a spreadsheet of YSL #4 in the comments section of the blog.

    Sorry many of you had problems with the old link

    Like the past 3 YSL’s is beat the S&P 500 our benchmark S&P 500 again

    A new YSL is under construction. If You are on the email List send in your choices to me this week.

    ______________

    Current Positions

    Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

    NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock - Up  over 6% in six weeks and was held through the date that allows you to collect dividend. so add another 3% to 4% profit. = +10%

    IMAX - Mea CulpaAs expected IMAX and 3D hit a major home run with the new Transformer’s movie over the weekend and I did NOT buy stock for Investors411 portfolio last Weekend. I would have sold IMAX into the Harry Potter movie July 15th.

    Paul has published in the comments section (last week) some potential high growth buys

    Short term strategy is to short overbought stocks. Bought 1/2 position in TZA near close Friday at 33.00.  MO closed at 89, just one point away from OMG oversold. Will sell quickly for a small gain.

    Longer Term Strategy The 5 bulls is a major signal and there are many who missed the rally waiting to pile on.  We’re in NEUTRAL, but a possible positive senerio has appeared (see above)

    Disclosure - I own NLY &  a group of dividend stocks which I have used some short ETF’s to protect. (I’ve cut back on short ETF’s) – I buy all stocks mentioned in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio.

    I very much like the position of going long High Growth Stocks (week to months and on dips) and/or longer term dividend plays – yet holding some sort of protection (preferably a Puts over a short term ETF that shorts) in case of sudden meltdowns.

    _________________

    Look for an enlightened Paul’s Corner every Tuesday & Thursday and the always informative comments section every day.

    Paul is on break for a couple weeks, check Comments Section for a few weekly updates.

    _________________

    Longer Term Outlook

    NEUTRAL

    AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

    ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


    • Share/Save/Bookmark
    Page: /2011/07/ : TestLink1 - TestLink2 - TestLink3