Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
August 31, 2011

The Quantum Shift

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

The Quantum Shift

  • The US markets and soon all trading markets are involved in a quantum shift toward High Frequency Trading.
  • US Stock markets have gone through probably the strongest three day rally  off a double bottom since 2008/2009. Not only did we have  one, but now two days have confirmed the first day’s massive move higher.
  • This rally is happening in very weak, below average volume because the vast majority of traders left in the market are High Frequency Trader. They dictate the flow or trend.
  • If one were able to predict what these HFT’s were going to do, you could make some serious $$$.

The Put/Call Ratio.

Investors411 has been using the The McClellan Oscillator as a primary diagnostic tool to measure overbought/oversold levels of the stock market.  The MO measures the NYSE. It does a good job. Readers of Investors411 can easily testify to this.

The problem is HFT’s look for leverage, because with leverage you can make more $$$. Therefore we need a tool with more leverage.

As most of you know Puts and Calls give you huge leverage. So sharing or taking the spotlight from the MO is going to be the Put/Call Ratio

This is the primary hunting grounds of the HFT’s and professional traders because it has leverage. Basic undersatnding  the Put/Call Ratio is simple. Above 1.00 is Bullish and below Bearish LINK Many analysts use moving averages for the P/CR. More on other ways to look at this later.

Bottom Line – The PCR closed at 1.14 and that’s bullish for stocks. One translation is that there are just more puts out there for HFT’s to mess with.

ThereforeThe MO is at +79.86 - overbought = bearish. But the P/CR is at 1.14 (above 1.00) and the HFT’s have more puts to play with than calls. Also consider the past couple of weeks the P/CR has been way above 1.00. That’s a lot of Puts out there that have to buy to cover their positions or lose $$$

HFT’s dominate, especially in low volume rallies. So for now they trump the MO.  But, don’t ignore the CAUTION below.

So, even though we are overbought, the HFT’s have some juice (because of all the put positions out there) to move the markets higher.

Bulls Rule

The Caution

Fundamentals in the long term rule markets. The May 20th call of a summer downgrade was based on that. European banks and countries could crumble in September.

So we have a new forecasting tool, a new long term outlook, and a new understanding of HFT’s.

  • Paul’s friends at HGSI turned positive last night (see comment section of blog)
  • Investors411 Upgraded its Long Term Outlook  yesterday

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR/SPELLING ERRORS



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August 30, 2011

High Frequency Trades

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

From Goggle Images

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +2.26% low
NASDQ +3.32% low
S&P 500 +2.83% low
Russell 2000 +4.75% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & HFT’s

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Second huge rally day. This time not just low volume, but ultra low volume. Clearly High Frequency Trader’s algorithms dominate the trade. Let’s take a look at some patterns/characteristics of HFT’s
  1. HFT’s are made up of uber wealthy investors/entities
  2. They  make money off of volatility – Major swings in the market will, therefore, become more common.
  3. They win far more than they loose. – Non HFT’s lose
  4. They manipulate through leverage and size.
  5. They use sophisticated algorithms.
  6. They can act far faster than any traditional investor.
  7. They dominate trading with 60+ % of the trade. Sometimes much higher.
  8. They create added volume to market moves both higher and lower.
  9. If you can predict collectively what HFT’s are going to do you would be a very rich person
  • Technically we have formed a double bottom for most major indexes Now major indexes have formed short term higher highs. (see charts of major indexes on right side of blog). Traditional technical analysis says this is bullish. Of Course traditional technical analysis does not account for HFT’s.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose  to +74.63 (Rough estimates =-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought) We have officially entered oversold territory. At the start of July stocks made it all the way to over +80 before they melted down. In the last two year last August was the only other time the MO made it to a bit over +80. Some other overbought/oversold indicators I look at ( LINK -MADC, Stochastics, RSI and you can change chart at link to look at 32 others) are not as overbought as the MO. But the MO has served us well in the HFT dominated US stock market. MO showing oversold outlook for stocks = Bearish
  • Reading the Tea Leaves –  There are major problems next month especially in the EU. Many analysts are confused. YOU shouldn’t be confused and realize this is all HFT manipulation. While there is huge momentum with bulls, the HFT’s have had problems in the past getting above @+85 on the MO. So we are much closer to a short term high.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May.
  • Reading Tea Leaves – From yesterday -  Let’s see how far the HFT’s can take stocks into overbought territory before yielding to bears. The MO shows any significant move higher is going to be hard.(see above) There are major problems next month especially in the EU.  Wall Street wants more Fed liquidity and they are not going to get it unless stocks fall.
  • From YesterdayTechnically,  we’ve put in a double bottom and that could sustain a low for a while. Since many traditional investors have long since stop investing, HFT’s do dominate/control trading and they make their money off the markets moving – The bigger the move the better.
  • Reading Tea Leaves – The HFT may have busted most of the short positions out there – Lots of people thought markets were going down so they went short. They had to buy to cover their shorts and not lose too much $$$. Best read is, for the time being, they have run out of shorts positions to take advantage of. (sorry I know this may be too technical)

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Paul’s Corner

Here are YSL 5 stats for Aug 29, 2011
.
Relative strength LINK
Technical data, Excel SS LINK


Last week a comment was made  essentially suggesting products such as HGSI weren’t worth anything.  Maybe spending $2 a day is a bit rich, but consider HGSI handed out glaring sell warnings prior to the slaughter back in 2008. Heeding those warnings my 401K was moved into cash and I enjoyed watching the decline of the market and I didn’t lose a cent. Recently back on July 27, HGSI gave me a clear sell signal, which I moved most of my money again to cash. I did play a few hands since, I won a few and got slapped for a few, but mostly I’m unscathed. If one doesn’t see the need of an analysis program, or even using a product such as Investors business Daily, a box of Darts from Walmart and a copy of the Wall Street Journal is probably all you need.


My usual disclaimer applies.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more on YSL#5.(scroll to bottom)

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Strategy has always been to buy the dip in a bullish trend. Most stocks sure as hell are not dipping now. But stocks have started to trend higher.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – So far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide.  and 14% dividend is added bonus.

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF)  Bought at 167.05 last week – a half position. GLD closed yesterday at 173.89. 3% stop/loss on GLD.

Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I’ve  also  SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges. I will be purchasing additional YSL #5 stocks when we have a lower MO.

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

Since we have, technically created a double bottom and reached a higher high on the charts of the major indexes (see charts on right side of blog) the outlook is changed to NEUTRAL. We are on the cusp of change so things can switch back and forth between CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH & NEUTRAL for a while

NEUTRAL*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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August 29, 2011

Pinata hits Back

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

The Pinata Hits Back

“For several months now, the GOP in general and the Tea Party in particular have taken unending swipes at Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, turning him into a virtual piñata.

In his speech in Jackson Hole, Bernanke finally swung back.  Many were shocked that the markets were strong even in the absence of some new form of financial stimulus”

The above lead quote is from Forbes, the author Joan E Lappin, CFA Gramercy Capital Management. Link to editorial

Check out some of the must read Bernanke quotes in Lappin’s editorial.

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Last week the NYT ran an outstanding editorial by Warren Buffett on “Why we Should Stop Coddling the Super Rich.”

Loren Berlin continues the argument in another devastatingly coherent editorial - “Why Taxing the Rich is Good for America.”

Many thanks to frequent contributor/commenter Jim J for finding the above editorial.

_________________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.21% low
NASDQ +2.49% low
S&P 500 +1.51% low
Russell 2000 +2.58% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & HFT’s

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Technically we have formed a double bottom for most major indexes and that’s bullish.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose  to +35.66 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought) At the start of July stocks made it all the way to over +80 before they melted down. Right now MO outlook = Neutral/Bearish
  • Reading the Tea Leaves - Boy did I get Friday’s call wrong. Markets move higher as the Fed Chair went directly after Republicans, the Tea Party and Congress in his speech (see above editorial)

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May.
  • Reading Tea Leaves –  Let’s see how far the HFT’s can take stocks into overbought territory before yielding to bears. Aside from that one venture to over +80 HFT’s and major institurions have balked at taking oversold levels over +60 for a year.
  • Even HFT’s can’t ignore major fundamental aspects of stocks/economics for a long time. Fundamentals are not good. Technically, however,  we’ve put in a double bottom and that could sustain a low for a while. Since many traditional investors have long since stop investing, HFT’s do dominate trading and they make their money off the markets moving.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

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Many of the stocks in YSL #5

Exploded higher on Friday

See POSITIONS Section of blog for more.(scroll to bottom)

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NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – So far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide.  and 14% dividend is added bonus.

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD (Long Gold ETF)  Bought at 167.05 last week – a half position. GLD closed Friday at 177.47

Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I’ve  also  SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges. I will be purchasing additional YSL #5 stocks when we have a lower MO.

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


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August 26, 2011

Caught

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Bernanke Speech today in Jackson Hole

HFT’s Caught in the Act.

Anyone’s whose read Investor411 nows about how much of the market is controled by High Frequency Traders HFT’s The damage they cause, and the loss of income to ordinary investors goes under reported

Zero Hedge, may not be your cup of tea (its not mine) as a web site, but they have graphically shown how “quote stuffing” (one of the ways your investment is manipulated in their favor) works LINK to explanation and the charts are theirs.

The explanation is rather technical but the bottom line speaks to the lack of stock market integrity

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

The Dead Cat Bounce Didn’t bounce yesterday

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.51% low
NASDQ -1.95% low
S&P 500 -1.56% low
Russell 2000 -2.62% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Very little to add. All eyes on Bernanke and what he says today (see Jackson Hole reference below)
  • Technically we have formed a double bottom for most major indexes and that’s bullish.
  • Very low volume shows even more control of markets by HFT’s
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to to -1.04 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought)  = Neutral
  • From Yesterday Reading the Tea Leaves-US stocks sure has all the feel of a dead cat bounce… Also first hurricane in a decade to hit NYC not bullish. The dead cat didn’t bounce. Today is all about Bernanke and how the algorithms the HFT’s use play off what Bernanke says. Tea leaves say bear win.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May.
  • RepeatReading Tea LeavesI believe we need another 5 to 10%  (now @ 4 to 8 %) drop to the downside before the Fed will intervene more strongly (QE #3 or something else) Perhaps this will come at the end of the week when there’s a meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming. LINK So still CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

.

NLY Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – So far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio. Easily outperformed S&P 500 over last couple months and 14% dividend is added bonus.

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) From Yesterday  going to start to nibble a little on dip today and add more on further dips”. Bought dip as stock near the open at 167.05 a half position

Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also ow SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges.

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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August 25, 2011

Two Hurricanes

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Irene

3irene

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Rick Perry

Rick Perry Polls

Rick Perry, like an oncoming hurricane,  has taken a double digit lead over Mitt Romney in two polls. (Gallop & PPP) This destroys Romney front runner “inevitability” status and he better do more than be a cardboard investment banker or he’ll get washed out.  Obama’s next.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

The Dead Cat Bounce

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.29% low
NASDQ +0.88% low
S&P 500 +1.31% low
Russell 2000 +1.39% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Repeat from yesterdayGold got so far over extended above its 50 & 17 day moving average it just had to blow off some overbought steam and fall… an overbought gold position falling triggered the algorithms of the High Frequency Traders, that dominate our stock market, into selling. A big chunk of the $ coming out of gold went to stocks. Also oversold financial stocks added to rally.
  • Can’t repeat this often enough - HFT’s are what moves the markets, not your traditional traders. They majority have long since left the building. Any competent analysis of market direction has to focus on HFT’s.
  • Steve Jobs resigns from Apple (now the world’s largest company) is front page headline even in NYT “He Can’t Meet His Duties.”
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +26.39 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG overbought)  = Neutral/a touch bearish
  • Why the MO has worked so well for Investors411 - It’s Simple #1 – clearly established lines for oversold and overbought #2 It can also be read technically as a chart – Example: Higher highs and higher lows indicate a direction #3 a combination of 1 & 2. Example: When bears rule its harder for the MO to get more overbought and visa versa for bulls.
  • A simple MO trading strategy. Since the outlook is CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH right now we probably won’t get as overbought as oversold. A very rough guideline – MO gets close to/over +30 – start to think about selling. MO gets close to/over -60 start thinking about buying.
  • Reading The Tea Leaves –  We probably need at least a bear market before the Fed acts more forcefully. We are @ 4 to 6% away from that right now. When the silver bubble popped it took four days to unwind. Like silver gold has had some fundamental issues behind its fall (some raising of margin rates to buy gold from major exchanges), but the fall is mosly technical with the extra cash finding its way into stocks.
  • We’ve had a stock bounce based on money flowing out of gold. Technical analysts will tell give you  ONLY the fact that markets were way oversold. But fundamentals matter. Both the Shanghai Gold Exchange (now twice in a month) and this must have leaked out – now the CME has raised margins (+27%) on the amour of gold you need to have to buy.
  • US stocks sure has all the feel of a dead cat bounce – The Low volume transfer of assets from overbought gold and financials to stocks . The CME group raising margins, after the bell yesterday, may drive more HFT’s from gold to stocks, but the higher the MO goes the harder it is for US equities to climb. Also first hurricane in a decade to hit NYC not bullish.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • RepeatMay 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May.
  • RepeatReading Tea LeavesI believe we need another 5 to 10% on the downside before the Fed will intervene more strongly (QE #3 or something else) Perhaps this will come at the end of the week when there’s a meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming. LINK After the rally yesterday I see less of a chance that the Fed makes a move – So still CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

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Paul’s Corner

How many shares do you buy? 1000, 5000, 500, 100? While I wish I had the buck$ to buy a big block of stock, like many I don’t have the funds or the guts to by a big block. So what can you buy or what’s more important, what’s safe to buy considering your available funds and the volatility of the market?

Tony Oz is a well know technical trader who lost shirt a few times by buying an incorrect amount of stock in a volatile market. He produced and offers for free a neat position size calculator.  Ron Brown from HGSI produces a variety of instructional videos for trading. I asked him several days ago if he had a video available on how to use Tony Oz’s position calculator. He didn’t have one available but after a bit of discussion explaining that it would be a good guide for HGSI users and members of Invesrtors411.com, he graciously produced one yesterday

LINK to video

This is a great presentation and one you all should view and download for future reference.

This sort of cooperation from HGSI is why I love the product. Where else can you get such powerful software and personal assistance?

As I mentioned a few days ago HGSI has some very good search and sort screens. One of  my favorites is called “The Best of Woodward and Brown”. I won’t go into the specifics but it usually presents you with a list of 10 best performing growth stocks during the day. Here is Tuesdays list, notice three YSL stocks.

AKRX,CF,ZNH,CPSI,CROX,CVV,HANS,SIMO,SPRD,TAM

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not. Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

.

NLY - Annaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio. Easily outperformed S&P 500 over last couple months and 14% dividend is added bonus.

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD (Long Gold ETF) Gold is falling like a stone. See reasons above. When the silver bubble popped, a couple months back, it took four full days to unwind. Think gold will hold up a bit better, so just going to start to nibble a little on dip today and add more on further dips.

Disclaimer Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also ow SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges. .

Sold call options on GLD yesterday at $3.80. Shoulda sold them a lot earlier and taken bigger profits, but since this was NOT a covered call I didn’t want a loss – One of Investors411′s mantras is don’t turn winners into losers. Calls and Puts are NOT part of Investors411′s Hypothetical portfolio

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Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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August 24, 2011

Please Tax Us

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

Please Tax Us

In France the 16 richest (Link) have banded together and signed a petition to INCREASE their taxes. Just like Warren Buffett in the USA. – He was ridiculed by almost every right wing outlet

Of course in the USA Republican’s have to take a pledge NOT to increase taxes on the rich. In America we privatise the profits and socialize the risk.

___________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Our bear s still out there

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +2.97% ave.
NASDQ +4.29% ave.
S&P 500 +3.43% ave.
Russell 2000 +4.87% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Gold got so far over extended above its 50 & 17 day moving average it just had to blow off some overbought steam and fall. No major bad news from Europe and an overbought gold position falling triggered the algorithms of the High Frequency Traders, that dominate our stock market, into selling.
  • Rumors of a possible QE #3 announcement  and  a short sale ban on financials also seemed to juice the algos of the HFT’s. (see Jackson Hole link below) Add to this the Somewhat oversold conditions of stocks and you have the fundamentals behind yesterday’s rally.
  • HFT’s are what moves the markets, not your traditional traders. They majority have long since left the building. Any competent analysis of market direction has to focus on HFT’s.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +4.56 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG oversold)Neutral
  • Through these last two months and  for over a year the MO has been an excellent forecasting tool – More tomorrow
  • Reading The Tea LeavesFutures are down. However the major question will gold see a second day of declines from its super way overbought highs. It’s really hard to see US markets move deeply into overbought territory right now. With MO at +4.56 there is wiggle room for both bears and bulls. But we probably need at least a bear market before the Fed act and are @ 3 to 5% away from that right now.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move. Add to this Europe is a whole lot worse than previously thought back in May.
  • Repeat - Reading Tea Leaves - I believe we need another 5 to 10% on the downside before the Fed will intervene more strongly (QE #3 or something else) Perhaps this will come at the end of the week when there’s a meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming. LINK After the rally yesterday I see less of a chance that the Fed makes a move – So still CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

But maybe the following can help turn those bears into bulls.

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“Demystifying  and Discussing  Simple Option Strategies”

by JS

COVERED CALLS

Most people think using options is an exotic and a very risky strategy, however using options can actually lower risk for investors, and can also be used to increase yield for conservative investors.

An option is a “right” to buy or sell a stock at a fixed price anytime up to a specific date.

Options are sold, or bought  by contracts: One contract covers 100 shares of a stock. When you see a price (premium) for an option, it is the price for coverage of one share of stock.  Example:  listed price of option is $.35, which means you’ll pay $35 for each contract  (100 shares) you buy. Expiration date is the date the option has to be acted on (generally 3rd Saturday of each month) or it will expire worthless to the buyer.

Example:

KMP is the underlying stock these options are covering. First you must own 100 shares of KMP and want to keep it as a long term investment.

The symbol for a KMP call is:   -KMP110917C67.5

What these numbers/letters mean:

  • - (minus sign) means option;
  • KMP is ticker  symbol of stock covered;
  • 11 means yr. 2011;
  • 09 means Sept. (the 9th month);
  • 17 means Sept 17 (expiration date),
  • C means a call,
  • 67.5  is the price you must sell the stock if you sold the call.

KMP closed Fri. @66.25  and  you bought the stock at that price. The price of this option then was bid 1.79 – asked 1.91.

Strategy:

You own the stock, want to hold it but you want to increase your yield, taking a chance it may be CALLED (taken). You SELL  the call,  pocket $1.79 per share, and wait to see if it’s taken from you by Sept 17. If taken, you profit:

  • 67.50 price paid for your stock when called
  • - 66.25 price when you bought the stock
  • 1.25 profit (price above where it was when you bought the stock)
  • 1.79 premium you received for call you SOLD (the bid price)
  • 3.04 Total profit for less than a month, less commission

Commission =  commission to buy stock + to sell call + when your stock is taken from you. If the commission is $8 on each the total would be $24

Per 100 shares, profit $304 – $24 = $280 total profit

If you want to, you can buy KMP again if your option is bought.

If KMP is not taken (price dropped or stayed below $67.50), you keep the premium  (179.00) and can sell another call for a future month. Either way you make a profit if the stock is taken or an extra dividend if it isn’t.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

JS is a frequent contributor in the comments section of blog. Also look for Paul’s Corner every Tuesday and Thursday.

______________

stock options cartoons, stock options cartoon, stock options picture, stock options pictures, stock options image, stock options images, stock options illustration, stock options illustrations

You don’t have to be rich to use covered calls  or many option strategies – [editor]

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

Have not had time to check, but YSL #5 probably did very well yesterday.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio. Easily outperformed S&P 500 over last couple months and 14% dividnd is added bonus.

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a MAJOR mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits back at $157. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip.

If/when the MO low enough I will buy some YSL #5 stocks for our hypothetical portfolio Gold was way too far above its 50 & 17 Moving Averages to buy. Yesterday’s -3.75 brought it back some.  Chance we’ll see another day of selling and a better entry point at end of day or tomorrow.

DisclaimerPersonally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also ow SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges. Buying some more hedges (TZA) at open. For those that do options – I bought a November 19th call on GLD for $355 at 191.  How much can an option move in a single day?  My GLD call option went from $655 and ended the day at $410. Bummer

________________

Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

_______________

Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


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August 23, 2011

No Change

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: ,

Sorry all I’m out of town today, will return tomorrow

No change in Long term Outlook, Especially for US economy

  • Another rally starting in Europe again, Yesterday’s ran out of gas.
  • Head of S&P resigning.
  • The Bloomberg News about shadow banks secret bailouts of 1.2 trillion (see yesterday’s blog) is getting some media play.

Barr

Paul’s Corner

Here is a look at Your Stock List 5 as compiled by HGSI. Prices are from the close Aug 18 to the close Aug 22. We will try to look at once a week.

YSL 5 Index Chart. HGSI allows you to make a group of your own stocks and then chart the index.

people.delphiforums.com/SNOTZALOT/inv411/ysl5chart0822.png

Stock  6 month relative strength against each other in the YSL 5 Index. (Image)

people.delphiforums.com/SNOTZALOT/inv411/ysl5rs0822.png

The groups performance against each other and the S&P 500 (HTML file)

people.delphiforums.com/SNOTZALOT/inv411/ysl5gpr0822.html

Excel Spread Sheet with fundamental data for each stock in the group.

people.delphiforums.com/SNOTZALOT/inv411/YSL50822.xlsx

Suggested reading:

Ian Woodwards latest blog.

LINK

Enjoy!

Disclaimer: I trust you are all safely in cash and NOT fooling around in this market!

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August 22, 2011

Freedom Shouts

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Freedom Shouts

Libya Rebels Tripoli

Photo of Libyan Freedom Fighter – Huffington Post

“Libya will go down in history as the anti-Iraq.”

Comments from leaders around the world

Obviously an apparent victory for the Libyan people, the Arab Spring and Democracy.

Freedom from 41 years of dictatorial rule in Libya is at atipping point.” President Obama.

The rebels have reached the center of Tripoli (see blogger EW on right side of blog for links to streaming updates and other news.).Another major victory for the Arab Spring seems near as Gadhafi forces have seemingly crumbled after 7 months of battle

They’ve caught two of Gadhaffi’s son and a battle rages around Gadhaffi’s (there are a zillion ways to spell this guy’s name) compound. It isn’t over till the fat lady sings, but we have reached the tipping point.

Major points for USA

  • Libya - UN support. A true international coalition, No combat boots on the ground,  No American lives lost, A people’s revolution. Iraq - UN condemnation, Falsified intelligence, $ trillions in cost, Fear mongering, 10′s of thousands of American dead and wounded, Labeling American’s who protested the war as unpatriotic.
  • A major victory for Obama’s foreign policy.
  • A less imperialist foreign policy that gets results at a cost far less than far right’s fear mongering you’re either with us or against us.
  • Remember there is still a huge hunk of this country that believes all arabs are terrorists who hate freedom

___________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.57% big
NASDQ -1.62% big
S&P 500 -1.50% big
Russell 2000 -1.60% -

_______________

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Thursday’s meltdown technically confirmed by  Friday’s losses – Both in above average volume. Good news if you’re a bear. Bad news for bulls
  • US is just 2% away from joining Europe and much of the rest of the world’s Bear market. Definition of bear market is a 20% decline from highs. American markets, have their own problems, but Europe is certainly a ton of extra weight on the shoulders of the US and emerging markets.
  • Germany and wealthier Northern European countries are caught between a rock and a hard place. Bail out insolvent EU countries or leave the EU which would send their currency soaring and decimate their thriving exports. A lose lose situation.
  • Libya is great economic news because it means 2% of the world’s oil supply will be back on line. Libya produces sweet (translate – real high quality) crude oil. Since NATO is leading the charge in helping the Libyan rebels almost all European markets are up this AM.

  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -42.82 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG oversold) Somewhat Oversold markets give the nod to the bulls. But we have not reached Oversold or OMG oversold. = Neutral/ Bullish
  • Reading The Tea Leaves - Let’s see how far the apparent victory in Libya and a somewhat oversold bounce can take us. It can’t change – kicking the can down the road on European debt.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move.
  • The Fed’s promise of low interest rates through 2013, has helped, but the European bear market is spreading worldwide.  Libyan rebels apparent victory will help stocks today. But like the Fed’s O% interest rates till mid 2013 – it can only go so far.
  • The Fed is the single strongest entity that can act to change the economic situation. On one side we have Republicans calling the Fed “treasonous” and “counterfitters” and on the other a falling stock market.
  • Reading Tea Leaves - I believe we need another 5 to 10% on the downside before the Fed will intervene more strongly (QE #3 or something else) Perhaps this will come at the end of the week when there’s a meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming. LINK

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a MAJOR mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits back at $157. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip.

If/when the MO low enough I will buy some YSL #5 stocks for our hypothetical portfolio

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also ow SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges. Buying some more hedges (TZA) at open. For those that do options – I bought a November 19th call on GLD for $355 at 191.

________________

Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

_______________

Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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August 19, 2011

Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Danger Will Robinson

Danger Danger!

Its time to bring out the old robot from the old Lost in Space TV series who would shout with all his bells and whistles going off that when was approaching danger - Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger. This is the highest alarm Investors 411 has of a possible impending meltdown

Stocks and more specifically our over leveraged, under regulated, “free market” shadow banking system is in big trouble.

The problem came out of Europe as the ECB (central bank) made a loan of  $500 million to one of its members. After markets closed our NY Fed made a loan of $200 million to a Swiss bank. Obviously some major banks in Europe are having insovlency problems and investors panic first and ask questions later.

Its a globalized banking world and everything is interconnected and hidden in the shadows. Remember after Lehmann went belly up so did Iceland’s entire financial system. Many US banks are deep into European debt.

The problem is the books are so shady, the regulators so few and the problems so large that PANIC is starting to unfold.  This is a libertarian and often alarmist web site, but I think its facts are correct. LINK Other stories CNBC LINK & CNBC LINK & WSJ LINK

Yesterday Investors warned that the German markets were down -3.47% at 8:45 EST. Today they are down another -3,68% at 7:00 AM this morning. German marks down  -25% this month. The US market futures down

Cramer and Hobbs from CNBC argue if this is like Lehmann’s

The major support level for the benchmark S&P 500 is 1101 It’s at 1125 in Futures trading at 7:20 EST. Down from 1141 closing. If 1100 falls you could see HFT’s accelerate the panic.

The one ray of sunshine is if the 1100 support level this holds, its bullish. But whose going to want to hold bank stocks over the weekend if the European banks are down another 5 to 10 % today?

Protect YOUR money – Downside risk is clearly much larger than any upside gain.

Barr

PS Just for fun, and we need a distraction today  - Almost 15 million viewer have watched this video about The Crazy Nastyass Honey Badgers by Randell

PPS – sending this out early as a head up.


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August 18, 2011

YOUR Stock List #5

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Our last 4 “YOUR stock Lists” have beaten the S&P 500

Today we introduce #5

Some notes on YSL #5

  • Thanks to everyone who participated – Without your help there would be no list.
  • Check out the MO (see below – McClellan Oscillator) before buying. Usually the lower the MO is the better your chance at a successful trade.
  • Be careful of chasing over extended stocks - Stocks too far above their 50 DMA’s or 17 DMA’s
  • Ticker Symbols are linked to charts. You can adjust chart to different time periods.
  • Stocks are NOT listed in any order of preference.
  • The first four  stock lists ran 2 to 3 months.
  • We have tried to diversify by industry group
  • Overall strategy is to buy the dip of trending stocks
  • Many of the stocks were chosen because they did not do as badly as most other stocks when the markets sank over the last month and/or recovered faster.
  • We hope this List  again beats the S&P 500. But the S&P may go down and so can YSL #5
  • My favorite way of looking this is to choose a handful of stocks and buy when the MO dips. The lower the better.
  • Paul often comments on these stocks in the comments section of the blog.
  • This new list will replace YSL#4 in the POSITIONS section of blog today

Obviously we can’t guarantee anything and you take this advice at your own risk


See Paul’s Corner at bottom of blog for

YSL #5

_______________

KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.04% low
NASDQ -0.47% low
S&P 500 +0.09% low
Russell 2000 -0.10% -

_______________

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Flat day with little volume. It looks like bulls have run out of gas and need another dose of good news.
  • Dividend Stocks – Because may of you like dividend stocks for the long term – Here, from Seeking Alpha is 3 favorite high yield dividend plays, It include one favorite AGNC at 18.8% dividend.

The 3 Legs – Europe, USA & Emerging Markets

  • From Yesterday - One of the three legs, Europe is very wobbly and most investment eyes are focused on it. Its got worse in Europe At 8:50 AM EST German market down -3.47% If the world’s largest economic block (the EU) is toasting it will take everything else with it. Right now, a recession in Europe seems almost inevitable and possible for USA LINK & LINK
  • Never forget our mantraHigh Frequency Traders Rule US & European Equities – These entities make their decision in microseconds and are not based on long term trends. They account for low volume rallies and other atypical technical market behavior.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +21.14 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG oversold) Chart shows we are nearing overbought territory. Therefore getting bearish, but overall still = Neutral
  • Reading The Tea Leaves – From Yesterday – Short term momentum still with the bulls. Momentum died yesterday AM and it looks like markets have risen about as far as they can on the Fed’s promise of near zero rates till mid 2013. European problems look like they will wash ashore here.

Sure Looks Like Bears are coming back

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat - May 20th forecast still standsThe May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move.
  • The Fed’s promise of low interest rates through 2013, has brought the Long Term Outlook for US Stocks close to NEUTRAL. But that’s just not good enough with Europe’s problem’s growing and the USA jobless rate. The Fed stimulus programs have kept this market moving higher and stocks may drop till the Fed devises another QE 3. This was all predicted in the May 20th forecast. Stocks have to drop low enough for the Fed to act.

______________

Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD – (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a MAJOR mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip. Just own some.

If/when the MO low enough I will buy some YSL #5 stocks for our hypothetical portfolio

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also own some  SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges. Buying some more hedges (TZA) at open. For those that do options – I bought a November 19th call on GLD for $355 at 191.

________________

Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

_______________

Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

* Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE


Paul’s Corner

Before we look at Your Stock List, it’s important to think about the damage that has been done to the market these past few weeks. This has been a very fast “V” type correction and rarely does the market correct as fast on the up side as it fell on the down side.

My good  friend and mentor Ian Woodward produces a great monthly news letter and this month he discussed the elephant marching around in the market. He points out several times that it’s gonna take some time to repair the damage:

“However, I point to the length of time it takes to get out of the doldrums and it is at least a few months. The recent dip of the Flash Crash is well implanted in our minds of 4 months, before the fresh rally resumed starting on 9/1/ 2010.”

Keep this in mind and the fact we may NOT have seen the bottom of this correction. Buy the dip as Barr always suggests and it might be a good idea to make partial purchases and add to your position as the market improves. In other words, don’t sink your grandchildren’s inheritance all at once! This has been and still is a very treacherous market, it’s tough for seasoned day traders and unsuitable for retail investors. Just because we are releasing this watch list doesn’t mean it’s all clear to play!

These past few weeks has been good for stock evaluation by simply watching  how the chart performed. Some of your suggestions performed poorly these past few weeks and were dropped.  A  broad group of stocks has been selected. The date at the end  of the stock profile is the expected earnings date.

Your  Stock List – 5

AKRX- Akorn, Inc. engages in the manufacture and marketing of diagnostic and therapeutic pharmaceutical products, hospital drugs, and injectable pharmaceuticals in the United States and internationally.  Aug 02.

ABV - Companhia de Bebidas das Americas–Ambev engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, carbonated soft drinks, malt, and other non-alcoholic and non-carbonated products in Brazil and the Americas. Sept 03

NLY - Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a real estate investment trust, engages in the ownership, management, and financing of a portfolio of investment securities. Aug 03

AAPLApple Inc., together with subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, mobile communication and media devices, and portable digital music players, Oct 19

CPHD - Cepheid, a molecular diagnostics company, develops, manufactures, and markets integrated systems for testing in the clinical market, as well as for application in legacy biothreat, industrial, and partner markets. Its systems enable molecular testing for organisms and genetic-based diseases by automation.  A YSL 4 stock. Oct. 21

CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in the United States. Oct 19

CROXCrocs, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and children. Oct. 27

GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. operates in the specialty coffee industry in the United States and internationally Oct 27

HANS - Hansen Natural Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the development, marketing, sale, and distribution of beverages in the United States and internationally. The company principally offers natural sodas, fruit juices and juice drinks, energy drinks and energy sports drinks, fruit juice smoothies and functional drinks Nov  04

HLFHerbalife Ltd., a network marketing company, sells weight management, nutritional supplement, energy, sports and fitness, and personal care products worldwide. Nov 01

LULU - Lululemon Athletica Inc., together with its subsidiaries engages in the design, manufacture, and distribution of athletic apparel and accessories for women, men, and female youth primarily in Canada, the United States, and Australia.

RESRPC, Inc., an oil and gas services company, provides a range of oilfield services and equipment to the oil and gas companies primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Technical Services and Support Services Oct 02

TSUTIM Participacoes S.A. provides mobile telecommunications services through global system mobile (GSM) technology to business and individual customers in Brazil. It provides prepaid and post paid services.  Aug 21 (Note: TSU just did a stock  split and many charts still haven’t been corrected)

ZAGG - ZAGG Incorporated designs, manufactures, and distributes protective coverings, audio accessories, and power solutions for consumer electronic and hand-held devices,  Aug 15

For future evaluation, stock pricing will be at the close today August 18 and we will report using a dollar weighted average.

Remember, you are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions because I‘m sure not going to.

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