Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
November 29, 2011

YOUR Stock List #7

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

The long awaited YOUR Stock List #7 is published today

5 of the last 6 YSL’s toasted the S&P 500.

See Paul’s Corner Below


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Effective Government



People as Sheep

Almost 1/2 of the sheeple in the USA have been hit over the head so many time with this concept they believe this -


“Just get government out of the way and everything will be fine.”

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How to Administer Economic

Shock Therapy

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Start with –  So you want to eliminate the US military – because its part of government. This will usually get loud NO repose – except from libertarians. Nevertheless you’ve opened the door to part of government can be effective.

Tell them – Having a well disciplined effective government works – Just like a well disdiplined military.  We took that discipline away  when we deregulated our financial industry .

The story


  • In 1998 we deregulated our financial institutions – everybody was for it -Democrats Republicans even Alan Greenspan.
  • Bankers are wicked smart and had recently found a new way to make money called Derivatives or Credit Default Swaps. This involved making a bets on the solvency of different bundles of debt.
  • Since they had an unregulated opaque derivatives that they thought would protect them they went right ahead and offered fabulous cheap mortgages to Americans.
  • These wicked smart bankers also bought bonds off some troubled European countries because they they had unregulated derivatives to back them up.

The rest is history – the 2008 meltdown and the EURO meltdown we are now in. This has caused the greatest recession of our lifetimes and it will get worse unless we again have effective government.

I’ll outline some details and cost figures when there is more time. You can do so by looking at past Investor411′s. But the obvious bottom line is -

Effective Government regulations work.

Good discipline is important just like it is in the army


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STOCKS


The Puppet Master

Goes Global


Yesterday the Puppet Master and his assistants proved he’s still in charge as global equities soared. Volume was light and, of course the algorithms of the HFT’s made up most of the the trades.

World equity markets soared

How does the puppet master make the puppet dance? My best read of the tea leaves is that he and is assistants intervene in the bond and/or derivatives market. They  drive down the bond yields of certain at risk countries (probably Spain and Italy, perhaps even the USA) or their derivative spreads by making purchases.

Traders/Investors, who have robotically based their stock purchases on the implosion of Euro bonds saw the yeilds fall and found some other place to park their money – stocks.

The puppet master had already pulled the strings and worked his magic in the USA bringing stock prices up from the infamous low of 666 in 2009 to yesterday’s close 1192 (S&P price)

What’s happened is that the puppet master has gone global.

Actually he had gone global long before this (see list of secret loans to foreign and US banks in yesterday’s Investors411  financial chart) Now with new allies like foreign governments, central banks, even other major financial institutions he is making his presence felt.


Who is the Puppet Master?



Fed Chair Ben Bernanke


Some hate Bernanke with a passion, others are his ardent allies. Investors411 simply recognizes him as the puppet master who is holding the world’s fragile economy in balance.


Germany’s DAX today up +0.70% at 6:45 AM EST

Up +0.44% at 8:45 AM EST

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Reading The Tea Leaves


Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell to -52,05. 50DMA at +8.99Bullish/Neutral

Were still a bit more oversold than neutral – Even after yesterday’s massive rally – so for now bulls rule.

From yesterday – It sure looks like the predicted oversold Monday rally is about to happen.

Bottom Line – Old Wall Street axiom

Don’t fight the Fed.

The Fed manipulated the puppet strings (some hidden others transparent) and the USA didn’t go over the cliff. Can they and their allies do the same in Europe? – They certainly picked a perfect spot to make a big move. Our MO indicator was at -100 or OMG oversold levels.


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Paul’s Corner


YSL 7 Watch List

Here you go folks, YSL 7! A mix of some well known stocks and a few new to most of us. Stocks were selected from reader suggestions and Barr and I tossed in a few.


AKRX Akorn, Inc. engages in the manufacture and marketing of diagnostic and therapeutic pharmaceutical products, hospital drugs, and injectable pharmaceuticals in the United States and internationally. It offers products in various specialty areas, including ophthalmology, antidotes, anti-infectives, pain management, anesthesia, and vaccines.

CATM Cardtronics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides automated consumer financial services through its network of automated teller machines (ATMs) and multi-function financial services kiosks. As of June 30, 2011, it offered services to approximately 37,800 devices across its portfolio, which included approximately 31,600 devices located in 50 states of the United States,

CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in the United States. It also operates restaurants in Toronto, Canada and in London, the United Kingdom. As of October 20, 2011, it operated 1,100 restaurants. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of footwear and accessories for outdoor activities and casual lifestyle use to men, women, and children.

DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. (Now serving the former middle class!)

FTK Flotek Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and supplies drilling and production related products and services to the energy and mining industries in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Chemicals, Drilling, and Artificial Lift. The Chemicals segment designs, develops, manufactures, packages, and markets specialty chemicals used by oilfield service companies in oil and natural gas well drilling, cementing, stimulation, and production activities

HANS Hansen Natural Corporation, through its subsidiaries, develops, markets, sells, and distributes beverages in the United States and internationally. It offers non-carbonated ready-to-drink iced teas, lemonades, juice cocktails, single-serve juices and fruit beverages, ready-to-drink dairy and coffee drinks, energy drinks, sports drinks, single-serve still water, sparkling juices, and flavored sparkling beverages.

HLF Herbalife Ltd., a network marketing company, sells weight management, nutritional supplement, energy, sports and fitness, and personal care products worldwide

IMAX IMAX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment technology company worldwide. It specializes in digital and film-based motion picture technologies

IBM International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) provides information technology (IT) products and services worldwide. Its Global Technology Services segment provides IT infrastructure and business process services, including strategic outsourcing, process, integrated technology, and maintenance services, as well as technology-based support services.

MA MasterCard Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, provides transaction processing and related services to customers principally in support of their credit, deposit access, electronic cash and automated teller machine payment card programs, and travelers’ cheque programs. Its payment solutions include payment programs, marketing, product development, technology, processing, and consulting and information services.

RL Ralph Lauren Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, marketing, and distribution of lifestyle products. The company offers men’s, women’s, and children’s clothing; and accessories comprising footwear, eyewear, watches, jewelry, hats, and belts, as well as leather goods, including handbags and luggage

SIMO Silicon Motion Technology Corporation, a fabless semiconductor company, designs, develops, and supplies a portfolio of multimedia data processing, storage, and transfer solutions primarily for consumer electronics applications. The company offers a range of microcontrollers for use in NAND flash memory storage products, including flash memory cards, USB flash drives, and embedded flash and solid state drives.

SWI SolarWinds, Inc. (It’s NOT a solar company) designs, develops, markets, sells, and supports enterprise information technology (IT) infrastructure management software to IT professionals. The company offers free tools, including desktop, laptop, or server-based applications designed for use by individual IT professionals focused on a single network or infrastructure management task;

TSCO Tractor Supply Company operates retail farm and ranch stores in the United States. Its stores offer a selection of merchandise, including equine, pet, and animal products, such as items required for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, including lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; maintenance products for agricultural and rural use; and work/recreational clothing and footwear.

As you all know, it has been a trying range bound market for months now. YSL 5 suffered from the general market and some nasty stocks downgrades. While we hope the market will turn positive and this list will be our best ever, until the Euro War settles, this is a day to day market and it’s foolish to think otherwise.

Next HGSI Webinar Tuesday Dec 6:

Dr Jeffrey Scott and HGSI user is back to present his refresher in HGSI software and, as importantly, share what he is up to in these challenging markets. Jeffrey always puts a new spin on each Webinar presentation so we encourage new and veteran users to come back for more. And he will provide his usual audience pleasing demonstration of how he is currently managing his own stock portfolio by building nightly watch lists.

You can register for this Free Live Webinar at: www2.gotomeeting.com/register/709221386

Disclaimer: No buy sell recommendations are made for any of the listed stocks. At the time of publishing I personally do not own any of these stocks. You buy any of these woofers and lose your house, your truck, or your show set up don’t come whining to me!


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Positions

Hopefully Longer term positions.

Whipsaw - Just like that and for reasons listed above our longer term Outlook has changed back to NEURTAL. So must our positions.

EUO (double short the Euro currency)   1/2 position Bought at 18.60. Selling this position.

Trades/Investments Under consideration-

  • APPL (long) AMZN (short) hedge trade.
  • GLD or DGP (double long gold)

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Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

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The Fed manipulated US markets and won. Remember some of their tools – the Transparent QE #1 & #2 and the secret loans revealed yesterday. The question is can the Fed and its agents (ECB, IMF governments/institutions who don’t want a messy EURO meltdown) do the same on a more global scale?

We’ll see.

The games afoot – But for now yesterday’s transparent Fed salvo – a giant worldwide equity rally – sure makes every investor remember four words -

Don’t Fight The Fed

Therefore,  upgrading to

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NEUTRAL

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.


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November 28, 2011

$707,568,901,000,000

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

OWS Chant


“Banks Got Bailed Out

We Got Sold Out”


Cartoonist – Horsey (Thanks to Paul for heads up on this cartoon)

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“Wall Street Aristocracy Got

$1.2 Trillion in Secret Loans”


To keep us from plunging into depression  in 2008 – the too big to fail “aristocracy” got a whole lot more $$$$ than we thought. –  Bloomberg News – 8/11

Here’s the list of the Fed’s Secret lifelines (near 0% loans) to the Shadow Banks. Bloomberg LINK bigger chart and lots more data


How Much Profit did the Shadows make from

a $1,200,000,000,000 ($1.2 Trillion) Loan???


Who knows?

The too big to fail shadows don’ t even have to have mark to market accounting.


We do know they went out and bought more financial WMD’s or derivatives. The size of this market has reached - $707,568,901,000,000 (this includes $107 trillion in the last 6 months – will bet a lot of these derivities had something to do with Europe)

Growth/profits in the bubble building derivatives market increased almost 18% in the last 6 months Source & Source & Source


“We Got Sold Out”

An Alternative Solution

From Ed Yardeni – Money Magazine.

We have an inventory of @ 3.5 million unsold homes – This negatively impacts the housing price of all of our houses.

“The government could fill 2 million homes by matching the down payment, up to $20,000,  for people who aren’t already home owners. A million more buyers could collect rental income tax free for 10 years… cost at most 40 billion”

Sure there are problems, but it does take massive pressure on housing. What’s $40 billion compared to whatever the opaque nominal value of $707,568,901,000,000 is?

  • Norquist & Company are not going to let the aristocracy finace this
  • Jealousy over exactly who exactly gets the means based homeowner loan
  • It does nothing to fix the opaque WMD financial derivatives market.

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Yankee Bob’s

Part 2



Continued from Sunday night


There are several ways the system aids financial white collar crime.

  • Congress may pass laws to win their reelections but they can be toothless.
  • A commission to regulate say, speculative futures trading to prevent price manipulation in basic commodities may be in place but if the commission refuses to act or parses the meaning of speculation in a way that is friendly to the speculators,…then the speculators are free to game the prices. Not really hypothetical is it?
  • Another way to defang regulations is to simply not fund the enforcement by the various organs. Hence the call of all the GOP candidates to defund or cut back the EPA because who needs clean air or clean water ? Regulations cost corporations money, that’s true. But who honestly believes that the corporations can or will self regulate in the public’s interest?

Well, the GOP does. Pawlenty was outraged when that bridge in Minneapolis collapsed. Oh, months before he had cut funding to the bridge inspectors so the inspection that could have prevented it was delayed..and the bridge fell down before it was inspected.

Even when the government has regulatory powers,corporations thru lobbyists, fight to cut funding for enforcement or to put corporate friendly regulators in place. They barrage the media with advertising money.

How many stories get killed or shoved to minor space because of fear of alienating the sponsor?

We probably graduate more communications majors then social science majors. Who is there to employ them but the corporate interests? There are armies of communication majors out there working overtime to make sure that the interests of the corporations  has a stronger voice then the truth.

They shape the future by distorting the truth.


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STOCKS

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The Stock Market Skater STILL on European Thin Ice


US Equities went nowhere in Friday’s shortened trading session.

Since I am not on the speed dial of our Fed, Europe’s Central Bank, Germany’s Financial minister or China’s President, I have no idea of what’s going on with the manipulators of European stocks, bonds and debts.

All the above entities have reason socialize the risk. Major, too big to fail, shadow banks have for years been reaping the gains.

Some rumor or fact has sent European markets soaring. Not hard to do with an oversold market. The rumors/facts have always turned out to be just rumors or inconsequential to the actual debt. Here’s some links on what’s happening this AM – CNBC , Reuters


Germany’s DAX today up +3.14% at 6:00 AM EST

DAX up +3.63% at 8:30 AM

So expect US stocks to follow. – Huge rally at open

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Reading The Tea Leaves


Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator rose to -98.43. 50DMA at +10.97 Bullish

While we did see a record -140 on the MO in August, a -98 with the 50 DMA at +11 means the market is very ripe, technically, as it was on Friday.

Same Bottom Line News from Europe can and will trump the technically bullish oversold US market. A -98 says, technically, the slightest bit of perceived good news can have a major positive impact on stocks.

From Friday AM – TradersFew are going to be willing to hold stocks over weekend on fear of more bad news. However another Dow 200+ point fall puts us in OMG oversold territory. You need a lot of guts, no financial earthquake in Europe & a better than expected black Friday would help, but you could see a rally Monday AM.

On a short term basis – Because of the rally in Europe –

It sure looks like the predicted oversold Monday rally is about to happen.

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Positions

Hopefully Longer term positions.

Tomorrow in Paul’s Corner

YOUR Stock List #4


EUO (double short the Euro currency)   1/2 position Bought at 18.60 Friday, EUO closed yesterday at  18.72

Trades/Investments Under consideration-

  • APPL (long) AMZN (short) hedge trade.
  • Any trade that shorts the market on a rally.
  • Focus sector to short – financials

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Longer Term Outlook

3+ months


Investors411 has recently downgraded the outlook to CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH – We, therefore, are on the cusp of change and it may take a week or so to see if the downgrade holds.

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CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

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November 27, 2011

OK Now I’m Mad

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , ,

Yankee Bob is Back


His Comments and Editorial Below


Much thanks to Sensei for alerting us to the $75 trillion in garbage  debt the Big Banks unload on the taxpayers.

You can watch the news on TV 24/7 and read every major newspaper but you won’t find that news. Obviously, the oligarchy has judged it not fit for print or give it much exposure.


OK, Now I Am Mad!


If you have ever taken an introductory  history course on the Supreme Court of the US or SCOTUS, you would know that the law of the land is neither mysterious, mystical, moral  or sensible. It is simply what a majority of Justices, that are cut from the same cloth of political pressures and discourse as the rest of society, decide.

Their words are nether lofty or Olympian. They can be very disappointingly and partisan.

Need we go further then the hand they played in stopping the vote counting in Florida thus appointing GW as President? Or the dehumanizing Dred Scott Decision or the humanizing of corporations  whereby the Citizens United case gave social constructs for business organizing – ie: corporations that which the Tin Man strived for, a human heart with the rights of a living breathing person.

SCOTUS can decide up is down or black is white or that the sun rises in the East and then what???

What do we do when we know they are wrong? What happens if Scalia convinces a majority on SCOTUS that if the President commits murder, it’s ok?! What if SCOTUS decides that we really were meant by the founders to be a Christian Nation despite the Bill of Rights? What then?

It depends entirely on the will of the people. Any law professor will tell you a law loses it’s soundness and effectiveness if it is unfairly enforced,or not enforced at all. Our prisons are full of prisoners that were caught spitting.

The US has the largest prison population in the world. That population is made up mostly of people of color and or poverty. Get caught with some weed, steal a radio, default on a loan, you could end up in jail.

The banks have looted and are still looting the US Treasury. Steel trillions from the taxpayer and you’re pretty sure of getting away with it.

WHY IS STEALING ON A LARGE SCALE TOLERATED BUT PETTY THEFT IS NOT?

It’s a matter of Class and of race. How can a law system that will put people away for minor offenses be tolerated if major theft isn’t even prosecuted?

Yankee Bob’s Solutions Tomorrow.

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November 25, 2011

$75,000,000,000,000

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

“Hopeless,

But Not Serious”


Who Owns

Cartoon by Pete Steiner LINK


The head Republican of the Deficit Super Committee  Senator Jon Kyle called Grover Norquist “the 13th negotiator.” Why?

“The lobbyist, who runs Americans for Tax Reform, has a tight hold on the Republican party, having secured written pledges from almost all its members of Congress that they will not vote for a single tax rise.” LINK

Norquist, after the vote promptly “proclaimed victory

All six Republican members of the deficit super committee have signed Norquist’s pledge.  All the Republican Presidential candidates have signed the pledge.

Across Europe governments have agreed to both raise taxes and cut spending to balance budgets. Democrats here have sought some relatively minor tax hikes from the wealthiest Americans who have prospered over the last three decades while middle class growth has stagnated.

Norquist says NO



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$75,000,000,000,000

$75 Trillion


This is How the amount of  debt from financial WMD’s (Derivatives or Credit Default Swaps) that now sits in a US government FDIC Insured Account.

“Bank Of America Dumps $75 Trillion In Derivatives On U.S. Taxpayers With Federal Approval”

Seeking Alpha’s – Avery Goodman editorial LINKOriginal Bloomberg News Source

Contrary to popular [Republican] belief, which blames the global financial crisis on subprime borrowers, it was the derivatives, based upon the likelihood that those borrowers would pay their debts, that were the primary catalyst triggering the global economic crisis of 2008.”

The real debt of our broken financial system from the 2008 meltdown and now the Euro crisis lies in opaque “free market” derivatives market.

Many Thanks to Robert H for the heads up on this.


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STOCKS

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The Stock Market Skater STILL on Thin Ice/Shark Below

Welcome to Black Friday. Christmas is supposed to be a religious holiday in celebration of the teachings of Jesus Christ. Instead its turned into the sanctification of shopping.

Wednesday was another significant fall again on European news.

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Germany’s DAX closed down @o.5% yesterday and today down -0.37 at 8:45 AM EST

So expect US stocks to fall between 0.5 & 1.o% at open

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Reading The Tea Leaves


Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell to -106.62. 50DMA at +13.99 Bullish

While we did see a record -140 on the MO in August, a -107 with the 50 DMA at +14 means the market is very ripe, technically, for some sort of rebound.

Same Bottom Line - News from Europe can and will trump the technically bullish oversold US market.

Traders - Few are going to be willing to hold stocks over weekend on fear of more bad news. However another Dow 200+ point fall puts us in OMG oversold territory. You need a lot of guts, no financial earthquake in Europe & a better than expected black Friday would help, but you could see a rally Monday AM.

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Positions

Hopefully Longer term positions.

EUO (double short the Euro currency)   1/2 position Bought at 18.60 Friday, EUO closed yesterday at  18.72

Under consideration –

  • APPL (long) AMZN (short) hedge trade.
  • Any trade that shorts the market on a rally.
  • Focus sector to short – financials

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Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

From Wednesday – We’ve had two major down days in the last two weeks, both were confirmed by a flat or lower stock market the next day. Therefore the Long term outlook is in danger of a downgrade to CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH.

The horizon shows no fix to Euro debt problems. The stock pattern is European stocks drop and the US follows.

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CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH


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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

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November 23, 2011

Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

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“Danger Will Robinson

Danger Danger”


Robot from old TV Series – Lost in Space

Europe


The first thing in the morning almost every stock analyst looks at is European Markets. Why? – If European markets are 2% lower then US equities open 2% lower.

The major problem is there is no viable solution apparent for the European debt crisis. One day there is going to be a panic about the solvency of  a major European bank and the European markets will be down 5% and falling. The US will do the same.


BAC


Bank of America our largest too big to fail is in deep trouble.  No one really knows how exposed BAC or any too big to fail institution is to bad debt in the USA or Europe because US banks don’t have mark to market accounting and the derivative market is opaque.

How bad is BAC? It hit a three year closing low yesterday. 6 month chart, 3 year chart.

BAC is the worst off of all the major shadow banks and the anchor that is leading the others down.

When a major bank/stock  market meltdown occurs is impossible to predict. – today, next month, next year. Until there is a viable European solution every stock is at risk. Especially financials. Therefore …


It’s time to take out the old Lost In Space Robot that warns of impending danger and shout -


“Danger Will Robinson, Danger Danger.”

Yes this debt crisis is, as Yogi Berra would say, 2008 all over again.


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News Briefs

Russia – What Russian New anchor thinks of Obama. 12 Second video (fun)

Art History & Pepper Spray – A photo essay including nude paintings (fun) Thanks to RF for the heads up on this.


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Happy Thanksgiving

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STOCKS

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The Stock Market Skater on Thin Ice/Shark Below


Yesterday US equities fell slightly. This confirmed the significant downside move Monday. If you look at a chart of the S&P 500 (See FINANCIAL CHARTS on right side of blog) you will notice the current meltdown is starting out almost exactly like the early August meltdown.

Ron Hera – Seeking Alpha contributor – The gap between the haves and have nots in the USA is growing so fast that  by 2032 the USA will be a third world country. How Quickly the USA is Becoming A Third World Country

Japanese markets were down 2.1% overnight. China overtook Japan as the world’s # 2 economy. EWJ chart (the ETF for Japan) is bearish. Few care about Japan and all eyes are on the largest economic block Europe.

Fed sets Stress Test for Big US banks becuse of European Crisis. Financial Times Story

Germany’s DAX down -0.07 at 8:45 AM EST

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell to -77.24. 50DMA at +16.68 = Bullish

While we did see a record -140 on the MO in August, a -77 with the 50 DMA at +17 means the market is ripe, technically, for some sort of rebound.

Same Bottom LineNews from Europe can and will trump the technically bullish oversold US market.

Technicals give us some short term hope, but then there’s the European Sword of Damocles. See yesterday’s Investors411

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Hedge Trades

This is NOT an event driven hedge trade like GMCR or ANF.

  • Longer Term a Call on AAPL and a Put on AMZN. Expiration dates of Put and Call should be similar and at/near value of current price.
  • You can also go long AAPL and short AMZN

Reasoning

  • It’s very hard to make an investment in an events driven market. You have little idea which way stocks will turn. (See above)
  • Technically APPL’s chart is much better than AMZN. The later seems to be free fall.
  • Exit strategy – Exit 1/2 the trade with  5+% gain. Let the rest ride.  5% loss is downside exit.  Larger profits if you are doing puts and calls.

Puts and calls are preferable because you risk a set amount of $.


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Paul’s Corner

Mea Culpa

Yesterday in Paul’s Corner we discussed Ian Woodward’s newest market indicator, “%B X Bandwidth“. This indicator created about a month ago by Ian Woodward (HGSI) is a very good indicator that can get you into and out of the market several days before feast or famine.

In yesterday’s post I suggested that since this was a new indicator it doesn’t have too much history but appears to be a real silver bullet in the market analysis tool kit. Well my good friend Ian Woodward was nice enough to call to my attention (while wielding a 2X4) that while it’s a new indicator, we have  oodles of history available using HGSI and EdgeRater software to generate several years of spread sheet  which shows the validity of “%B X Bandwidth”.

For your review here are the images Ian created for Investors411:

May 5, 2010 Flash Crash – LINK

Sept. 1, 2010 New Rally – LINK

March 2009 Bull Run Start - LINK

July 15, 2009 Continuation    - LINK

Many thanks to Ian for providing these images! Have a great Thanksgiving folks and after the festivities take a few minutes and review Ian’s blog and study “%B X Bandwidth” a bit more.

Ian’s Blog LINK


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Positions

Hopefully Longer term positions.

EUO (double short the Euro currency)   1/2 position Bought at 18.60 Friday, EUO closed yesterday at  18.72


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Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

We’ve had two major down days in the last two weeks, both were confirmed by a flat or lower stock market the next day. Therefore the Long term outlook is in dange of a downgrade to CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH.


NEUTRAL


Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.


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November 22, 2011

Europe’s Sword

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

Europe


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Just like in the US mortgage crisis, a whole bunch of banks and their friends took on some questionable European debt.

These sophisticated mega bond holder were happy to buy questionable bonds because they could bundle them and sell the on the opaque Derivatives Market (Credit Default Swaps) – This questionable insurance put additional leverage on the debt.


Gains were privatized and the risk socialized =

Crony “free market” capitalism


The debt in Europe is massive and when the bond rate of a particular country hits 7% (10 year bond) payments become unsustainable. The question becomes who is going to socialize the risk?

The USA has already donate $5 trillion in stimulus, bailouts loans, money printing, taxes etc. because of the 2008 credit crisis which came to a head when Lehman Brothers had $150 billion in bad bond debt.

Now the largest debtor country in Europe has $2.25 trillion in debt approaching  7%. A number, in the past, that has forced other countries into messy “controlled” fluid bankruptcies. Also meltdowns on global stock markets.


Who is going to Socialize the Risk?

Crony “free market” Capitalism


Just like 2008, we don’t even have an accurate accounting of which globalized shadow bank has how much debt. Only that this over leveraged European debt is MASSIVE

European mechanisms for dealing with this debt are structurally weaker the the USA (fodder for another editorial) and the potential size of the debt in HUGE.

Reading the Tea Leaves - Nobody is willing to socialize the risk. So the Sword of Damocles hangs over stock and financial markets around the world.

Perhaps the only thing that will motivate more socializing of the risk is when a too big to fail bank goes belly up becuse it has too much European debt and through the opaque CDS market – fear of worldwide contagion spreads.


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Obama’s Stand


Like it or not Obama has drawn a line in the sand on deficit reduction -

The Super committee has now officially imploded. Countries far worse off than ours (Ireland, Portugal, & Greece) have already implemented far more relatively onerous tax hikes and deficits cuts.

Obama’s line in the sand to Congress - I will veto any attempt to undo the automatic cuts if you try to exempt any part of them (Pork = any previously agreed cuts that come into effect if plan is not approved). He will only approve a complete plan.

This president is serious about a comprehensive deficit plan




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STOCKS

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Fundamentals simplified

  • The Bulls case - Emerging markets are basically sound and the USA is picking up steam.
  • The Bears Case - Europe (the world’s largest economic block) has a huge fiscal crisis with no apparent solution.

Yesterday, US markets fell significantly due to European news.

The day after a significant move in one direction is the “confirmation day” It tells us if traders have doubts about the  big loss/gain.

US market open is dominated by European trading, The DAX (Germany’s stocks – by far the leading market in Europe) is up +0.22 at 8:20 AM EST. Expect US markets to follow.

By using the homepage of Stockcharts.com you can follow the DAX and other major European indexes in real time.  Use the “Today in Market chart and highlight the appropriate index. (It’s free)

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Reading The Tea Leaves


Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell to -72.62. 50DMA at +18.29 = Bullish

While we did see a record -140 on the MO in August, a -73 with the 50 DMA at +18 means the market is ripe, technically, for some sort of rebound.

Bottom LineNews from Europe can and will trump the technically bullish oversold US market.

Technicals give us some short term hope, but then there’s the Sword of Damocles.



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Paul’s Corner

What? A big Swoosh? The sound of your grandkid’s inheritance being sucked out of your portfolio? Yup not a great day, but you know the drill today will be up 600, right? As usual Barr gave a great warning last Friday and hopefully you protected your assets.

How would you like to have had a warning on Nov 9 and exit signal on Nov 16? Take a look at Ian Woodward’s (HGSI) latest blog where he discusses %B and Bandwidth.

LINK

Clear as mud eh? Well it’s pretty simple stuff. %B  represents where a stock sit’s in its Bollinger Band and Bandwidth is the actual measurement of the width of the Bollinger Bands surrounding your stock. Using the two you can accurately gauge the health of a single stock or the overall market.

Ian has been preaching this stuff for several years. Recently I questioned Ian about a certain move of the Bollinger Bands of the S&P 1500 index. In our discussion he spotted a way to take the position of the index within its Bollinger Band (%B) and multiply it by the Bandwidth you get a very fast confirming indicator.

Ian’s chart shows the early warnings on Nov 09 and the Outta Here warning on Nov 16.

LINK

This stuff is only a few weeks old and doesn’t have years worth of confirming signals to prove the wealth of this new  indicator,  but from what I see it’s a real silver bullet in the HGSI market analysis tool kit.

YSL 7 is just about finished. Barr and I have a few stocks to kick around, hopefully next Tuesday we will publish.

Happy Thanksgiving all!


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Put/Call Hedge Trades

This is NOT an event driven hedge trade like GMCR or ANF.

Longer Term a Call on AAPL and a Put on AMZN.

Reasoning

  • It’s very hard to make an investment in an events driven market. You have little idea which way stocks will turn.
  • Technically APPL’s chart is much better than AMZN. The later in free fall.
  • Exit strategy – Exit 1/2 the trade with  5+% gain. Let the rest ride.

More in comments section or tomorrow’s blog.

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Positions

Hopefully Longer term positions.


GLD - DGP is the more risky double long gold ETF. 1/2 position added at 173.85.  Sold through a stop order at 165.20 The 1/2 position had a 4.5% loss

USO - (2x oil prices ETF UCO riskier) Back under consideration if/when stocks dip further.

EUO (double short the Euro currency)   1/2 position Bought at 18.60 Friday


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Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

NEUTRAL

Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

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November 21, 2011

The Big Lie

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

The Big Lie

Super Committee


Credit to the Tea Party for forcing the issue of deficit reduction to a head. It is a serious long term issue.

Virtually all news outlook say congress is deadlocked over what to cut and/or tax to further balance the budget. This can gets kicked down the road because no penalties come into effect till 2013 – after the election.

Unfortunately, because of the attention focused on the deficit, almost nothing has been done about the clear and present danger that our financial system has created.

  • $5 to 10 trillion in new loans or debt created by the financial meltdown
  • The loss of 8 million jobs.
  • The @20 to 25% decline in the #1 asset of middle class American’s – their homes
  • 6,000,000 foreclosures since 2007 with 4,000,00 in the works – Almost 1/2 of all mortgages under water.
  • A major European fiscal meltdown impacting the world.

Unfortunately the Tea Party and Republicans  have a NO COMPROMISE stand on cutting only areas like social security, education, medicare etc  that target the middle class, seniors and the poor.

Democrats are willing to compromise on these issues as long as wealthy Americans also share the burden. For every $3 in tax cuts you tax wealthiest Americans and mega corporations $1.

The above inspired by

  • Sunday’s blog on OWS
  • Matt Taibbi rebuttal to David Brooks

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The Big Lie

“On either approach, [to deficit reduction] the poor and middle class would suffer grievously while the rich and powerful would win yet again”

From Columbia prof.  David Sachs –  LINK to his editorial

“The key to understanding the U.S. economy is to understand that we have two economies, not one. The economy of rich Americans is booming. Salaries are high. Profits are soaring. Luxury brands and upscale restaurants are packed. There is no recession.

The economy of the middle class and poor is in crisis. Poverty and near-poverty are spreading. Unemployment is rampant. Household incomes have been falling sharply. Millions of discouraged workers have dropped out of the labor force entirely. The poor work at minimum wages to provide services for the rich.”

Reality

“When Obama has one of his many $35,800-a-plate fundraising dinners, he doesn’t meet young people struggling to cover tuition payments…The big money on the Republican side is even worse.

The upshot is that both parties champion the 1 percent, the Republicans gleefully and the Democrats sheepishly.”

Sach’s editorial is full of cooberating  data


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OWS

The reason lobbyists and the media for the 1% are in a jihad attacking the messenger of OWS is because they are so afraid of this message getting out – LINK to message/Short Video


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STOCKS

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From Friday

“The Whole Financial World is Skating on Thin Ice”

The Ice got a whole lot Thinner over weekend

Friday’s Warning from Investors411 -

“Like in the Wizard of Oz I don’t know how long the man(men) behind the curtain can keep holding our fundamentally flawed financial system together. Downside risk grows every day, because little is being done about fixing the root cause of our problems…If/When the ice breaks on the opaque, deregulated, & manipulated financial system great danger lies below.”

Friday market was basically flat. Technically, this confirmed the big drop on Thursday. = Bearish

Market Open is dominated by European trading, The DAX (Germany) is down 2.58 at 8:45 AM EST. Expect US markets to follow.

The single largest reason the US and most European markets were flat Friday is the ECB bought enough Italian and Spanish bonds to keep their rate of the 10 year bond below 7%.  The 7% level seems to be the tipping point number where Ireland, Portugal and Greece began their” controlled” default on their bonds.

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell to -40.38. 50DMA at +19.15 = Neutral/ Bullish

Repeat From Thursday However, if you read the MO like a chart it has just broken a support level and that’s Bearish

On Aug 8th the MO reached -141 the lowest its been ( I’m looking at a 3 year chart that includes the 2009 meltdown) That’s a hundred point drop.

So overall technical conclusion is -

there is a lot of wiggle room for markets to technically roast and toast before some sort of rebound occurs.

Repeat From Friday - Europe again dictates the open This makes holding stocks overnight very risky. If you can handle an event driven market where your stock/ETF/mutual fund jumps 2 +% up or down at the open then this market is for you.

Commodity prices fell like stones Thursday, for the most part held onto those losses. If commodities prices fall – stocks will follow.

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Event Driven Put/Call Hedge Trade

[ Straddle or Combination Trade]

This trade depends on an earnings report [We could also use any expected announcement, like an upcoming FDA drug approval] and earnings season is over.  So very few trades present themselves like the GMCR that made 200% and the ANF that made 70%


Kudos to JSWho writes a column on puts and calls and announce in the comments section that he was shorting this weeks market by using calls on SDS. This looks like a very wise move to protect his long positions.


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Positions

Hopefully Longer term positions.

We just cannot seem to get traction on any long term trend, besides volatility.

GLD - DGP is the more risky double long gold ETF. 1/2 position added at 173.85. Currently at 167.43. Placing stop at 165.20. Bummer – GLD fell to 166.60 and our stop was not hit. It will get hit if stocks open lower today and we might get a lot lower price.

USO - (2x oil prices ETF UCO riskier) This would be a replacement for SPY. Bought 1/2 position at 37.35. Currently at 38.23. Placing Stop at 37.35 Stop was hit and this position is closed = 0% gain

EUO (double short the Euro currency)  Will be buying EUO on the dip for the Investors411 portfolio. 1/2 position Bought at 18.60 Friday

Reasoning – Simple Europe has a lot of unsolved problems and this is going to hurt their currency.

*********************


Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

NEUTRAL


Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.

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November 20, 2011

Et Tu Barack

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

A Photo Essay

Pepper Spray

84 Year Old OWS Protestor Dorli Rainey

From Seattle Pi

Liz Nichols Occupy Portland Pepper Spray

“Icon” Portland Oregon OWS Photo


Students at UC Berkley OWS from Aggie TV

You Tube – Short Video & Long Video


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Criminal Prosecutions of

Financial Institutions


economix 15trac custom1 Obama Prosecuting Fewer Financial Crimes Than Under Reagan or Either Bush

Et Tu Barack Obama


The above inspired by:

  • OWS “Banks got Bailed Out, We Got Sold Out” Chant
  • A Deal That Wouldn’t Sting NYT Gretchen Morgenson
  • How To Prevent A Housing Recovery Seeking Alpha’s Bruce Judson
  • 6,000,000 foreclosures since 2007 and another 4,000,000 in the works MSNBC
  • Why Isn’t Wall Street in Jail? Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi
  • Some on the left who believe only right wing politicians are in bed with shadow “banksta’s”
  • Mostly because from college students to 84 year olds – there are those willing to sacrifice and fight for what they believe in.

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November 18, 2011

32,500

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

32,500

(NYPD Estimate, Others say more)

Athens Action

The size of last night’s peaceful OWS demonstration.

in NYC

CNN - “OWS Grows Larger Events held 50 cities throughout the USA and more across the world.


“Our political system should serve all of us — not just the very rich and powerful. Right now Wall Street owns Washington,” said participant Beka Economopoulos. “We are the 99% and we are here to reclaim our democracy.”


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I’m 28 years old. I have a good job, health insurance, no debt and my family is doing well. My life is good and I strive to be a good person. But you don’t have to have cancer to want to cure it, do you? Greed has become cancer on the American dream. It is a cancer of our own creation. I am the 99% and I allowed this to happen, whether by apathy, ignorance or false hope. I accept responsibility. But I will not accept defeat. OCCUPY WALL STREET.

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[Thanks to SHerwehe for the heads up on this map]



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STOCKS

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The Whole Financial World is Skating on Thin Ice

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Like in the Wizard of Oz I don’t know how long the man(men) behind the curtain can keep holding our fundamentally flawed financial system together.

If/When the ice breaks on the opaque, deregulated, & manipulated financial system great danger lies below.

Downside risk grows every day, because little is being done about fixing the root cause of our problems.

Yesterday - Options expire today and yesterday’s loss (@ 1 to 2%) was exacebated by traders covering their positions and juice by the omni present HFT’s.

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator fell to -51.75. 50DMA at +19.28 = Neutral/ Bullish

From Yesterday - However if you read the MO like a chart it has just broken a support level and that’s Bearish

Europe again dictates the open This makes holding stocks overnight very risky. If you can handle an event driven market where your stock/ETF/mutual fund jumps 2 +% up or down at the open then this market is for you.

Germany up 0.13% at 9:05 AM EST

The major danger is commodity prices fell like stones yesterday. Today is a confirmation day of yesterday’s fall. Stocks will NOT rally if commodities continue to fall

  • Copper -3.5%
  • Oil – 3%
  • Gold – 3%
  • Silver 7 %

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Put/Call Hedge Trade

[ Straddle or Combination Trade]

Investors411 will continue to focus on this style of trade because -

  • Its focus is on volatility – One consistant trend for stocks
  • You can win if a stock goes up or down
  • It is driven primarily by a single event (earnings release)

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YOUR Stock List

Today at 4:00 PM EST marks the deadline for emailing me YOUR choices for YSL #7 For more  - LINK .

YSL  has outperformed the market 5 out of 6 times.

YSL wins because YOU participate.

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Positions

Hopefully Longer term positions.

We just can not seem to get traction on any long term trend, besides volatility.


GLDDGP is the more risky double long gold ETF. 1/2 position added at 173.85. Currently at 167.43. Placing stop at 165.20. The MAJOR mistake here was NOT buying on the dip. Will exit near close if GLD is down 0.5% near end of day. This would indicate confirmation of downside move.

USO(2x oil prices ETF UCO riskier) This would be a replacement for SPY. Bought 1/2 position at 37.35. Currently at 38.23. Placing Stop at 37.35, but will exit position on a  loss near 0.5% near end of day. This would indicate a confirmation of downside move.

I personally own EUO (double short the Euro currency) I will be buying EUO on the dip for the Investors411 portfolio.

Reasoning – Simple Europe has a lot of unsolved problems and this is going to hurt their currency.


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Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

The benchmark S&P 500 support level at @1225 fell yesterday. Therefore, Investors411 is downgrading the long term outlook to NEUTRAL.

NEUTRAL


Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.


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November 17, 2011

Shadow Capitalism

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

A Tipping Point?


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Syria

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Two days ago the Syrian Free Army, based in Turkey, attacked army positions in Syria. This may be a tipping point against a brutal dictator in a struggle that has killed thousands.

The Arab League has Suspended Syria and warns of “Islamic Empire.”


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STOCKS


Protesters set-up tents inside a Bank of America branch in downtown San Francisco. (Photo by: Vinnee Tong/KQED)

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The stock market didn’t fall because 90 protestors in SF were trying to occupy and demonstrate how BAC privatizes gains for themselves and socializes risk for the rest of us to pay.

No, Fitch  a major credit rating agency,  warned  the risk of a “negative shock” remains high for shadow banks. One mega factor – European debt. (Fitch obviously did not use the adjective shadow or color/bold their statement)

Every Investors411 readers knows how BAC (down 3.75% yesterday) and other US shadow banks are tied to Europe debt.

The same way they were tied to the 2008 mortgage meltdown – Through purchases made on the opaque, unregulated Credit Default Swaps/Derivatives market.

How many mega crises does there have to be before shadow (often called “free market”) capitalism gets regulated?


openingimage

The whole financial world is again skating on thin ice


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Reading The Tea Leaves

Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator rose to -19.45. 50DMA at +21.31. = NEUTRAL

Again, No real technical advantage for bears or bulls. However if you read the MO like a chart it has just broken a support level and that’s Bearish

Europe again dictates the open This makes holding stocks overnight very risky. If you can handle an event driven market where your stock/ETF/mutual fund jumps 2 +% up or down at the open then this market is for you.

Germany down 1.33% at 8:10 AM EST


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The ANF Trade

Put/Call Hedge Trade  [ Straddle or Combination Trade]

Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner


The ANF trade that at least one of Investors411 commenters/readers executed turned out to net 70%.

Not as big as the GMCR Investors411 sanctioned trade that made 200%. But as stated we do not expect results like this, or even 70% in future trades. But we could get lucky

One Investors411 reader/commenter is executing the same kind of hedge trade with FO today. Analysis – Possible to get a decent move, but chances seem weaker than GMAC & ANF.

There are two distinct advantages to this kind of trade.

  • You risk a limited amount of money to control 100 shares
  • This is an event driven trade where you make money if the stock moves significantly either way.

GMCR (chart) .Interesting that GMCR after reaching its low has climbed back 17%

ANF (chart) Ended the day down 13.64%. If the put part of this trade had been held to the end of the day the profit would have been 100+%


******************


YOUR Stock List

With fanfare Investors411 yesterday has announce its next Stock List. We have a formula that’s worked 5 out of 6 times. You still have till Friday 4:00PM EST to send in your favorite 2 or 3 stocks.

YSL ONLY works because YOU participate.


*******************


Positions


Hopefully Longer term positions.

GLD - DGP is the more risky double long gold ETF. 1/2 position added at 173.85.

FXI - [China] Added at 38.12. Sold 1/2  for 37.33 Loss -2% Moved stop/sell order to 36.94. Stop loss hit. Loss 3% Total loss on trade 2.5% Trade closed.

USO - (2x oil prices ETF UCO riskier) This would be a replacement for SPY. Bought 1/2 position at 37.35. Currently at 39.34.

I personally own EUO (double short the Euro currency) I will be buying EUO on the dip for the Investors411 portfolio.

Reasoning – Simple Europe has a lot of unsolved problems and this is going to hurt their currency.


*********************


Longer Term Outlook

3+ months

Cautiously Bullish will remain in effect as long as benchmark S&P 500 stays above 1225. We are moving in the direction of a downgrade.


CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMER ERRORS.


  • Share/Save/Bookmark
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