Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
December 30, 2011

The Year of Dividends

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

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Happy New Year &

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Fireworks over 2011 Stock Results


Dividend Stocks up 19% YTD


Over the next few trading days Investors411 will go over the stock results for 2011, which again beat the S&P 500.


Today - Dividend Stocks

Lots more information on the Positions page (section 2A)


Early this year Investors411 started putting together its Recommended Dividend Portfolio. The last Part “below 4% growth” was finished 7/3.

These results are for the year (one day short) – simply because it was very easy to get results for the year. During the same period the benchmark S&P results were about even (depending on today)

The 6 month result, of course, are probably  about  50% lower, but the S&P benchmark was also down about -6% since early July.  Each ticker symbol is linked to a 6 month chart so you can check out those results too.

Guesstimate is that its around +8 0r 9% vs. -6% for S&P for those 6 months.


Many of members on the mail list and frequent commenters made $$$ using the dividend list.


  • The Dividend List was by far the most talked about and worked on part of Investors411 Longer Term Portfolio.
  • Your Stock List was our most talked about and worked on Shorter Term Portfolio.


Here’s the List of Investors411


Recommended Dividend  Stocks


  • Ticker symbols link to charts.
  • First number is the yearly dividend,
  • Second is the stock price (rise or fall)
  • Third bolded number is the combination of the two.


  • KMP 6.11%   +19.29% = +25.39%
  • T 5.50% –  +2.84 = +8.34%
  • WIN 7.42%  – 16.83 = -9.41%
  • SNH 6.63%   +4.01 = +10.63%
  • DUK 5.24% +23.61 = +28.85%
  • D 4.09%  +28.21 = +32.29%
  • PGN 5.27% +28.21 = +33.48%
  • HCN 5.58%  +13.65 = +19.44%
  • MO 5.64%  +20.80  = +26.44
  • HTD 5+%  +16.80 = +21.80+
  • BMO 4.48%  -5.97 = -1.49
  • ABV 4.58%  +18.75 = +23.33

Below 4% but with price growth potential

  • CVX 3.03% +16.20 = +19.23%
  • MCD 3.10   +30.29 = +33.39%
  • PM 3.73%  +34.14 = +37.87%
  • GIS 2.90%  +14.70 = +17.60%

Ultra High dividend

  • NLY 13.5%  -9.70 =  +3.85
  • AGNC 19.0%  -1.90 =  +17.01

Investors411 will continue with this diversified group of dividend stocks into 2012. Dividend stocks and Bonds outperformed the S&P in 2011 and will continue to do so unless we enter a strong bull.


Why dividend Stocks & Bonds beat the S&P


People looked at the low treasury rate, had fear of volatility in stocks with QE 2 ending and thought why not hold a stock/bond that produces a dividend higher than inflation or treasuries.

As long as treasuries, inflation stay low Dividend stocks will produce. Our Fed has promised low rates for 2012 and introduced operation twist, so Dividend stock should continue to do well.


To come – More Investors411 Model portfolio results –  Conservative (dividend ETF’s), Moderate, Aggressive and Your Stock List results. You can get an advanced look by going to POSITIONS Section of blog.


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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol


3D Stock Analysis

Scroll down at this link for more on 3D analysis

Repeat from last weekThe Bulls are Back - Yesterday marked the second technical confirmation of  Torrid Tuesday US equities held onto or added to their gains.

Stocks moved higher yesterday on again pathetic volume. Low volume is a sign of a manipulated market or Central Bank domination.

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The accuracy of Investors411 forecast is due to the realization that equities are currently being moved by politics and central bank manipulations  is more significant than traditional fundamental and technical factors

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Overnight Data From Europe


Germany’s DAX

+0.20 at open and at +0.06% at –  at 6:40 AM EST

DAX  +0.85 at 8:30 EST

Italian 10 year bond

Opened at 7.07% – 2:30 AM EST

Fell to 7.02% at 6:45 AM EST

Italian bond at 7.015% at 8:30 AM EST

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Reading The Tea Leaves

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Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +32.81. 50DMA at +3.71 = NEUTRAL

The six month decline in the VIX (measures FEAR in the stock market) is a longer term bullish indicator

The $670 billion loan bailout of 532 European banks has taken some of the sting out of the high Italian bond rates (over 7%)

MO shows Stocks have room to run and DAX at +0.85% confirms another rally day


Shorter Term Traders

Seasonal factors and a not yet overbought MO, shows there is time to go long, but the window is closing as the MO goes higher.

We have the January effect when many value investors who have taken money out of the market for tax reasons reinvest it in early January. Everybody knows this is coming and some of the rally this week can be attributed to front running the January effect.

OIl prices and stocks have rallied on Iran’s war games and threats. Tiny chance Iran will do something to block Straights of Homutz. If Iran attempts something – stocks fall & oil prices rise.


Since the Long term Outlook has changed to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH – High Growth Stocks should do even better – So check out Paul’s Corner and his Comments,

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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In the last  6 months there have been at least a dozen moves of 5 to 20% one way or the other for major indexes. Investors411 has changed its outlook between Cautiously Bullish and Neutral far less.  This has been a difficult market to call. But...The Bulls are back


CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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December 28, 2011

Financial Amnesia

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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Financial Amnesia

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Old FT Front Page

Since the Editorial boards of the vast majority of US financial journals have yielded to their advertisers or the corporate oligarchy, few papers/jorunals stand out.

One is the Financial Times.

This AM the FTimes is running a story accusing   Wall Street of  collective amnesia Investors411 readers know that this collective amnesia is purposeful and enacted so profit can be further privatized and the conseuences (risk) can be further socialized.

“Financial amnesia disarms individuals, the market and the regulator,” … “It causes risk to be mispriced, bubbles to develop and crises to break.”

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Politicizing Science


Michael Mann

We have had an all out attack on science that perhaps stated with trying to prove Cancer had no relationship to cigarette smoking.  They were, for the most part unsuccessful then, but that was decades ago.

Now, Cherry picking data and using a massive political and media machine a corporate oligarchy tries convince an American public that the opposite of science fact is true.

Michael Mann in a TED/PSU lecture/video clearly proves how its done over climate change.

The same kind of McCarthyism is happening in the USA with everything from climate change to evolution to financial meltdown

Quite simply

Ethics and morality are being assaulted by

GREED

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The Dark Side

Mitt Romney Ron Paul

Ron Paul

&

Mitt Romney

Last week Investors411 went over the bright side of Ron Paul. This short video shows the dark side.  The new Iowa front runner proclaims 15 things that are “unconstitutional”

Here’s a sample from Right Wing New’s John Hawkins on the national Republican front runner  “Why Mitt is unelectable.”

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol


3D Stock Analysis

Scroll down at this link for more

Repeat from last week - The Bulls are Back - Yesterday marked the second technical confirmation of  Torrid Tuesday US equities held onto or added to their gains.

Major news story out of Europe is the significant auction of Italian bonds this week LINK Early indications (falling price of the 10 year Italian T bill) show investors buying Italian bonds.

Oil prices are moving higher. Commodities have a significant positive correlation to stock prices. Oil’s move is due to trouble in both oil rich Iraq and Iran.

DBC is the ETF that tracks “overall commodities”. It was up a significant 0.44% yesterday – A bullish move.

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The accuracy of Investors411 forecast is due to the realization that equities are currently being moved by politics and central bank manipulations  is more significant than traditional fundamental and technical factors

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Overnight Data From Europe

Germany’s DAX

Fell over 1% at open and at +0.00% at –  at 6:40 AM EST

DAX at  0.03 % at 8:45 EST

Italian 10 year bond

Opened at 7.01% – 2:30 AM EST

Fell to 6.67% at 6:45 AM EST

Italian bond at   6.86% at 8:45 AM EST

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Paul’s Corner

Many stocks are doing well near the end of the year as the window dressing continues. Looks like Italian bond auction is going well and this good news and good for our market. Tuesday the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production group was 2nd in the high demand group search, here are the top stocks in the group for the day.

ATPG, END, EPL, FXEN, KOG, MHR, REXX, VQ

YSL 7 Chart Review

SIMO – All indicators green, buy any dip up

HLF - just below the 200

TSCO – sitting on the 50, basing, mixed HGSI indicators

DLTR – break out of 3 week base, lower than normal volume, buyable

CMG – most indicators green, buy any dip, mediocre food.

RL – Continuing down trend, needs a series of higher highs before any buy

IMAX – sitting on the 50,  woof!

FTK – continues to climb with the oil patch, all indicators green, buy any dip

DECK – no comment needed

SWI - chart declining, NOT a buyable dip

IBM – Cramer recommended IBM, ask him if it’s buyable

HANS – sitting on the 50, Force index is declining

AKRN – All indicators green, buy any dip

MA – buy any dip

CATM – down -2.91% but within normal trading range, perhaps a buy the dip, pocket pivot signal last Friday

Stocks Recently Mentioned In The Blog & Comments Section

BKI – broken out of a two month base, slightly extended, buy any small dip.

CVX - Extended, nearing resistance @ 109

KOG – broken out of a short 3 week base, extended, all indicators green.

Disclaimer – All comments for education only, no buy or sell recommendations are intended. At time of this writing I own several of the stocks mentioned.


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Reading The Tea Leaves

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Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +42.44 . 50DMA at +5.02NEUTRAL/bearish

We’re a bit moderately overbought, but no where near clear reversal territory. Since the 2009 meltup the MO has one time reached =100 and 5 times gone over +80.  4 of those times since June.  Therefore, there is some room for stocks to move higher before encountering resistance.

See last weeks Investors411 for all the other bullish factors influencing the market this week.

Traders - Season factors and a not yet overbought MO, shows there is time to go long, but the window is closing as the MO goes higher.

Investors - Those who need to make adjustments because of long term gains or losses will probably have the wind at their back till the last trading day of the year on Friday.

This year Investors411 emphasized Dividend producing stocks and ETF’s.  The two streams of income…


Dividend stocks have

Out performed the S&P 500 significantly this year.

Congratulations!

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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In the last  6 months there have been at least a dozen moves of 5 to 20% one way or the other for major indexes. Investors411 has changed its outlook between Cautiously Bullish and Neutral far less.  This has been a difficult market to call.

The loan program of the ECB to over 500 European banks seems to have offer some stability to stocks.  This was larger than the program after the 2008 meltdown.

The bulls are back

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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December 27, 2011

Sleeping Dog

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update

The yearly forecast for 2011, made last January was perhaps the most accurate since Investors411 started

“Investors411 looks for a much better first 1/2 of 2011 than a second half especially in US stocksWe are in a Fed liquidity driven economic cycle.”

More details on the long term outlook can be found in the the strategy section of the blog.

Investors411 is spending most of the day in a post holiday stupor

But our comments section is wide open

One Message


The accuracy of Investors411 forecast is due to the realization that equities are currently being moved by politics and central bank manipulations far more than economics.

If you review the past few Investors411 post you realize there is a clear bullish bias to the market.  THe ECB has provided bailout loan money for its banks and that has protected the financial system. This is another liquidity driven Economic cycle. (see above) Now only specific countries seem to be at risk.

The  element holding back this from becoming an outright stampede is the bond rate of the Italian 10 year bond. The bond rate is trading at 7.044% at 7:50 EST today.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


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December 23, 2011

Ron Paul/Michael Moore

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

From Investors411


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Michael Moore is A Whimp

So is the Left in the USA



Thumbnail


Why? They didn’t produce

This Video Ron Paul did.

Ron Paul also recognizes its the shadow financials that are crushing the USA. His solution – return to a gold standard and eliminate the Fed would solve the problem, but create a world wide depression.

Instead we need a Teddy Roosevelt to reestablish our rules, regulators, break up too big to fail banks & a government that does not go to war and cut taxes.

Right now we are playing financial football without most of the rules and far less referees. Pure Free Market Capitalism is playing the same financial  football game without any rules or referees.


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STOCKS

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Neuschwanstein Castle – Germany

The Bulls are Back – Yesterday marked the second technical confirmation of  Torrid Tuesday US equities held onto or added to their gains.

The Prime catalyst mentioned yesterday was the European Central Bank giving $647 billion in low interest loans to over 532 banks.

As Popeye points out in the Comments section


Banks get Bailed Out

We get Sold Out


To keep the crony under regulated opaque crony capitalist system alive, European Banks are getting bailed out. They are the ones who made most of  the bad loans (bought the bonds) to  a handful of troubled European countries.  These financials made the loans because they could repackage them into “financial weapons of mass destruction” – credit default swaps.

The people of Europe get the higher taxes, job loses and cuts in government programs.


Sound familiar?


There are two solutions to this problem – Or its going to keep happening again and again.

  • Ron Paul’s – Blowup the Fed and go on the gold standard
  • Create real regulation, enoough real regulators and eliminate too big to fail shadow financials & opaque markets.

Repeat  - Bottom Line - This is a manipulated market. The ECB in what may just be the first of many loans has made an impact. Bulls Rule

Overnight Data From Europe


Germany’s DAX

Gapped up at open, lost @1/2 and fell to +0.38 at –  at 6:40 AM EST

Other major European Indexes doing better.

DAX at  +0.20% at 8:45 EST

Italian 10 year bond

Opened at 6.96% - 2:30 AM EST

Fell to 6.90% at 6:45 AM EST

Italian bond at 6.94% at 8:45 AM EST

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Paul’s Corner

One of the things I love about the HGSI software is the various searches I look at nightly occasionally spit out stocks I have never heard of and may do that for several days in a row. BKI has been appearing repeatedly for days now.

BKI Buckeye Technologies Inc. engages in the manufacture and distribution of cellulose-based specialty products. It operates in two segments, Specialty Fibers and Nonwoven Materials. The Specialty Fibers segment offers chemical cellulose, customized fibers, and fluff pulp derived from wood and cotton cellulose materials using wetlaid technology. The Nonwovens Materials segment provides airlaid nonwoven materials derived from wood pulps, synthetic fibers, and other materials using airlaid technology. The company?s products are used in various applications, such as disposable diapers, personal hygiene products, engine air and oil filters, food casings, rayon filament, acetate plastics, thickeners, and papers. Buckeye Technologies Inc. markets and sells its products directly through its sales force, as well as through sales agents primarily in North America, Europe, Asia, and South America. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

Ok big deal, a pulp mill? Interesting stuff made from wood scrap I’d burn for heat in the winter. But in an investment world of Smart Phones, flash drives, AAPL, ZNGA, why the decent chart and recent chart acceleration?

The following article surfaced yesterday and might explain the move. LINK

BKI broke out nicely yesterday from a nice 8 week base. Some of the move was probably generated from this article. Although it is somewhat thinly traded at 400,000 shrs a day, all of my favorite HGSI chart indicators are green. Even with yesterday’s pop, BKI is not over extended at the moment. If one is to trade this stock it might be beneficial to watch chart action for a few days and one shouldn’t typically trade at the open, the morning after a decent pop like it had the day before.

Several other stocks in the pulp wood group are looking good too. For your evaluation here are the other stocks within this group.

BKI

MERC

FBR

CLW

IP

WPP

INDEX

MWV

NP

UFS

SPP

GLT

ABH

VRS

KS

SWM

ONP

Note, stocks are listed in an HGSI Top Down Analysis sort from 12/22. This sort can and does change every day. The chart and the fundies should be one’s guide to stock selection.

My good friend Ian Woodward posted an excellent late night blog last evening and gave some good thought as to the current market and what to look for if this Santa Claus rally is to continue. Be sure to read it!

LINK

It’s 7 AM as I write this morning; ABC Good Morning America just came on and at the open they featured soldiers coming home from Iraq. It sure is nice this horror story is “some what” over.

Merry Christmas All!

Disclaimer, all comments are for education only and are not meant as stock buy or sell recommendations.

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Reading The Tea Leaves

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Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator rose to +34.86 . 50DMA at +5.88 = NEUTRAL/bearish

We’re on the cusp of moderately overbought, but no where near clear reversal territory.

See past Investors411 for all the other bullish factors influencing the market this week.

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The fact that the ECB is making very low interest rates yo 500+ European banks takes some heat off of Europe and mitigates the Italian Problem. If Italy goes into “controlled bankruptcy” it’s impact on European banks will be less devastating.

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The 7.00% rate on the Italian 10 year is still significant, but less so after the ECB intervention. The 6.94% proximity to 7.00% is the only thing holding back another major rally today.

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For more information on trading strategies see STRATEGY Section of blog.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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The Bulls are back (see above)

Upgrade to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

We have been on the cusp of change between CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH and NEUTRAL for almost a month.  So its subject to change. Both Neutral and Cautiously Bullish are favorable for longer term investments. Obviously one is more favorable than the other.


CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.



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December 22, 2011

Sleeping Kitty

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Sleeping Kitty

Stocks


Bulls want to rally. Indicators like the VIX, Put/Call Ratio and the fact that our McClellan Index is in neutral all show this. Santa Clause and January effects are real phenomena that add to the bullish tone.  Holding them back is Europe. Yesterday European banks gobbled up cheap loans offered by their central bank.

If you want to know if the bulls can break out and stampede check the DAX (German Stocks) and most importantly the 10 year Italian bond rate reaching 7.00%. Closer to 7.00+% the more the bears rule.


Trends


The Mitt Romney flip flop trend has now become

the stuff legends are made of.


Latest  -Iraq war – In 2008 campaign he “supports” the Iraq war – “a good idea worth the cost in blood and treasure we have spent.” By 2008, after 5 years everyone knew there were no WMD’s in Iraq.

Yesterday – “He would never have gone in if he knew there were no WMD’s.”  LINK to story.


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Relaxing today. Hopefully, back tomorrow with much more –

Check out the Comment section for more ideas

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December 21, 2011

Heroes Part 2

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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Heroes

Part 2

Obama’s new CIA Director General

David Petraeus


Petraeus when asked – Who would be your person of the year? – answered Mohammed Brouazizi The Tunisian street vendor whose immolation sparked the Arab Spring. He also gave a nod to Steve Jobs.

What Petraeus has taught is the brute force, so beloved by the right wing and military industrial complex, doesn’t work. In Iraq progress was made when Petraeus endorsed sitting down and talking with former enemies and turning them against those who opposed US forces.

Winning the hearts and minds of an opposing side works far better than  brute force which created more terrorists.

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Jon HuntsmanJo

Jon Huntsman


John Huntsman, a true conservative, has taken some outstanding positions is his fight for the Republican nomination for President.

He believes in science – global warming (see below).

As former ambassador to China he understands foreign policy. Huntsman opposes Mitt Romney’s use of brute force and taking China in front of the world court on day 1 of your presidency. It’s  a horrible idea.  It would create a trade war that would lead to a massive recession or world wide depression.

But, by far his most outstanding attribute is Huntsman is the only candidate, including Obama, that has a clear and workable

plan to break up the too big to fail banks.

LINK to his plan

Obama’s plan leaves big shadow banks up to regulators under the weak Dodd/Frank legislation. Matt Taibbi and others have often pointed out regulators are corrupted by those they regulate as easily as congress is by lobbyist.


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Systemic Disaster


If a systemic plant wide catastrophe worries you in the slightest

DO NOT

Read this article

Continue to ignore the continuous stream of giant bursting bubbles of methane gas as they erupt into our atmosphere all across vast sections of the globe.

You can see them, smell them, die from inhaling methane gas

But do they really don’t exist?

Ignore  the science and reality that your children will have to face or read the article.



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STOCKS

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Neuschwanstein Castle – Germany


Torrid Tuesday’s


Yesterday’s sleeping kitty woke up to and in bright red numbers showed you the decline of the 10 year Italian bond, explained how it was linked to the market and the end result was another Torrid Tuesday for stocks.

The other strong influence on US stocks is currently what happens to the stock market most powerful economy in Europe – Germany.

Commodities like oil (+3.74%) and copper (+4.84%) did better than most stocks. So both the significant bond and major commodities confirmed the stock move higher. A bullish sign

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Very positive long term move by Fed - “Fed Bolsters Tools To Avert Collapse of Big Firms[Banks]

The number one focus should be having NO too big to fail institutions. Number 2 is you don’t want big institutions to collapse – so you demand better regulations, regulators and more liquidity.

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Bottom LineThis is a manipulated market and IF those Italian 10 year bond rate keeps falling, the very real Santa Clause effect (scroll down at link for cause of Santa clause rally) should dominate.


Overnight Data From Europe

Germany’s DAX

Gapped up at open and has fallen @0.60 off its high to +0.90% at –  at 6:00 AM EST

DAX at -o,63 at 8:30 EST

Italian 10 year bond

Opened at 6.69% – 2:30 AM EST

Fell to 6.45% 3:30 AM EST

Rallied back to 6.65% at 6:00 AM EST

Italian bond at 6.84% at 8:30 AM EST



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Paul’s Corner

The Charts!

A wild up day yesterday and if what we hear, or don’t hear out of Europe is correct, we might see this rally continue for a day or so. Wouldn’t that be new!

A brief look at YSL charts. Immediately after the symbol is a capital letter A to D indicating accumulation to distribution.  A Accumulation, B Accumulation, C Neutral/Dist., D Distribution.

AKRX (A) Excellent chart, buy any dip

CATM (B) Ok chart, all indicators green

CMG ( C )  basing chart sitting on the 50, aka free parking

DECK (D) broken chart, all indicators red, buy at your own risk

DLTR (B) Ok chart

FTK ( C ) Good chart, going through a buy the dip

HANS (B) Ok chart, buy any dip

HLF (D) declining chart, below the 200, needs to cross up through the 50 for a safe buy

IBM (D) sitting on the 50 in a dip, chart indicators have turned red

IMAX ( C ) climbing chart, below the 200, sitting on the 50

MA (D) Ok chart, buy any dip, above the 50 and the 17.

RL (D)  declining chart, most indicators red

SIMO (B) good chart, trying to break out of a 2 month base, all indicators green

SWI (D) in a dip and not necessarily a buy the dip position, needs time for chart to improve before a buy

TSCO ( C ) basing chart, sitting on the 50, aka free parking

Chart observations are just that, observations and are not buy or sell recommendations!

The winter solstice tomorrow at 12:22 AM,  the days are getting longer and summer is on the way!  Happy trades!


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Reading The Tea Leaves

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Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator rose from -41 to +0.67 . 50DMA at +7.48NEUTRAL

The -41 reading (= moderately oversold) at the start of yesterday’s trading gave some fuel to the bulls. The MO Index in NEUTRAL shows no advantage for bulls or bears.

For more information on trading strategies see STRATEGY Section of blog.

Italian bonds are on a huge roller coaster this AM. Big move down and back up. Any yield above 6.75% is a danger zone and , of course 7.00% is the panic number.

Secondary indicators like the VIX and a low Put/Call Ratio are showing investors are expecting a rally to materialize.

Short term – Investors411 is sticking with what works – The yield on the 10 year Italian bond. There is a bullish bias, but it will get trumped by the rising price of the Italian 10 year bond. Bears Rule Today – unless the Italian bond falls.

Longer TermThe world needs to find a way to come up a huge some of money to cover the European debt problem (perhaps $4 trillion). We have NOT.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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NEUTRAL

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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December 20, 2011

Crisis in Europe

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Relaxing

[A message for Investors]

Europe


The Economic viability of Europe continues to be the #1 investment related issue.

The best shorter term forecasting tool of what’s happening there continues to be the yield rate on the Italian 10 year bond (set chart to one day to get current readings) and its proximity to 7.00% danger zone where other European countries entered “controlled bankruptcies”

At 2:30 AM EST the bond opened at 6.93%

At 5:00AM EST the yield fell to 6.64%

At 8:00AM EST it fell to 6.61%.

European and US stock markets are currently  inveserly correlated to the yield rate of the troubled 3rd largest country in Europe. (Italy)

Therefore, falling rates = European stocks are up and US equities should benefit.

This could all change by 9:30 AM EST when US markets open and those changes will impact stocks throughout the day.

Longer term –  Approaching 7.00% is like driving your car to the edge of a cliff and slamming on the brakes again and again and… The brakes have worked. But how long is it before they wear down?

Investors411 is moving to a Monday, Wednesday and Friday format

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December 19, 2011

Heroes

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Heroes

Part 1


Egyptians Protesting for Democracy


Time magazine Person of the year was the protestor. The world exploded in protest from the bloody cities of Syria to the pillars of Wall Street.

The protestors - From the Arab Spring protestors in bloody Syria to those that Occupy Wall Street have had the courage to fight for what they believe in.

The Time Magazine Story is  deserves your attention.

Investors411 will spend this week on the Individual Heros who have acted to make a difference.

To be continued

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Young Americans

Charlie Brown Cartoon


Statistic


America’s Future - Nearly 1/3 of  Young Americans have been arrested for a crime other than a traffic violation. LINK

So when young Americans protest that they are being shut out of what was the American Dream, our media focuses on their behavior instead of their message and tries to tear down their OWS movement.

Pressure’s building, you can continue to sit watch the tube or do something to to give these kids a chance at success.


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Mr. Dysfunctional

Government

Republican Speaker of House John Boehner

The Senate passed a continuation of the Payroll Tax cut with a the added provision including building of the Keystone Pipeline.

It passed Overwhelmingly 89 to 10

Nobody was happy, but finally Republicans and Democrats were working together.

Not so when it Came to the House of Representatives which has a strong never compromise, our fellow Americans are the enemy, ideologue right wing Republican contingent. The Republicans who , under Boehner, control the House refuse to bring up the bill for a vote.

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They’re Baaack


Neocons

The use of Brute Force & endless wars is the only solution

You might think Mitt Romney’s words in Presidential Debates are just rhetoric – Romney – “Taking China in front of the world court on day 1, Doubling the size of the US navy, and  adding 100,000 troops” is just vintage fear mongering for votes.


The USA already spends six times what China does on weapons.


Romney is sending a less than subtle message to every military contractor out there to flood my campaign with undisclosed cash (his PAC’s) and together we can fear monger America into a war with China (trade or military)

This is just what we did with Iraq.

As Yogi Berra says- Deja Vu all over again.

Remember what happened when Obama’s campaign got flooded with Wall Street/Shadow Banker’s $$$ – Reforms of too big to fail bank turned out to be almost non existent.


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STOCKS

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Leaning Tower of Pisa - Italy

Italian bond yields exploded higher at the open and surpassed the critical 7.00% rate at which other distressed European countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland) went into “controlled bankruptcies.”

European stocks started the day in the red but rallied into green as yields on the 10 year Italian bond yields dropped.

Oil prices had an alarming drop last week, but stabilized on Friday – USO is the ETF for oil. This three year chart will show oil to be in about about in the middle of its range. This three month chart show a double top and a lower low – Some cause for short term concern.

Data From Europe

Germany’s DAX up +0.83% at 6:00 AM EST and  +0.96 at 8:30 EST

Italian 10 year bond down significantly from +7.06 open, but up significantly at +6.83% at 6:30 AM EST  Down to to 6.77% at 8:30 EST

Looks like a rally at the open that should continue

As the Italian 10 year falls or flattens

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Reading The Tea Leaves

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Our #1 technical forecasting toolthe McCellan Oscillator rose  to -17.16 . 50DMA at +9.57NEUTRAL

The MO Index is back in NEUTRAL and show no advantage for bulls or bears.

Shorter term Outlook (week) For more information here see 3D trading strategy in STRATEGY Section of blog.

Every time Italian bond yields rocket there is a mysterious buyer that comes in and buys all the high yield bonds. Investors411 believes this is the Fed and allies(through proxies) who drive down the rates. This AM was yet another test


Libertarians and Solutions

Ron Paul/Libertarian

There will be more tests on the 10 year Italian bond.

Libertarian blog Zero Hedge goes into its usual panic today about Fed injecting $$$ into Europe and deressing the Italian bond yield.

Libertarians (Ron Paul) have claimed the sky was falling more times than Chicken Little. This site does some good research, but should be taken with a block of salt.

If they were right the inflation rate would now be a multiplicative amount higher years ago. Their end goal is a gold standard that would send us spiraling into a depression. But they do understand the to big to fail shadow bank problem.

A far  superior solution to our crony capitalism is to enact laws (regulations) and police (regulators) to enforce a just system of capitalism that does not privatize gains for a few and socialize risk for many working individuals.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months

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NEUTRAL

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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December 16, 2011

The Stacked Deck

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Last Night’s

Republican Debate


When the moderators of the debate Point blank call you “dangerous,” “outrageous,” and “totally irresponsible” you know the deck is stacked against you.  This is the kind of debate run last night by Fox News.  Their target was Newt Gingrich.

Fox News, Washington lobbyists and the Carl Rove Republican establishment have already crowned Mitt Romney as their man. The deck is stacked.

Needless to say there was virtually nothing substantive in the debate about how to prevent Europe’s collapse, the job crisis or a host of other major issues.

As whacky as these debates are, $$$$ wins in politics. Between now and the first  vote in Iowa an avalanche of negative adds from PAC’s from the wealthy oligarchy will determine the outcome. Everyone says they HATE negative adds, but the simple fact is they work.  Romney’s PACs have the money to club any serious Republican opponent.

Romney nor any of his Son’s have ever served in the military

Has Romney Gone Rabid?


What should frighten you about Romney is far more than his promise to take China to the world court on day 1 in office – thereby starting the same kind of trade war that sunk us into Great Depression.

Romney wants to go beyond the Bush/Cheney just use brute force

“us vs. them” foreign policy.

Quote from Andrew Sullivan at 10:12 PM of the Republican Debate

“Again, Romney accuses the president of treason, saying he backs Chinese power over American. Romney wants a doubling of warships and 100,000 new troops. How to pay for that? No answer.

But what’s notable about Romney is his resolute intention to play the treason card.”

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By far my favorite in the Republican debates has been Jon Huntsman who has a plan to end to big to fail shadow banks.

Huntsman, last night admitted illegal immigration levels were the lowest they’ve been in 40 years. There is a  also huge gap between his and Romney’s extremest views on immigration.


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STOCKS

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Commodities


  • Inter market technical analysis teaches that if commodities sink, stocks will soon follow. Commodity charts especially oil are breaking down.  Tuesday saw a massive 5.05% fall in oil and yesterday confirmed the drop with another 1.45% decline.  The chart is just plane ugly. There is a support level 3% lower, but if that falls things could get very  very ugly.
  • The other inter market technical analysis that is relevant now is Europe

Germany’s DAX up 0.07% at 7:20 AM EST and FLAT at 8:30 EST

Italian 10 year bond down significantly at 6.34% at 7:20 AM EST  Up to 6.40% at 8:30 EST

Italian bonds have out of the extreme danger zone, but there is obviously still cause for concern.

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Reading The Tea Leaves

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Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator rose  to -33.02 . 50DMA at +10.59 = NEUTRAL/bullish

Shorter term Outlook (week)

  • Europe is settling a bit as the Italian bond rate falls – Worries over a credit rating downgrade in future.
  • Oil prices plummeting is a very significant problem because this is probably related to global growth.  Two biggest emerging markets - India did rally off its low for the year yesterday & China while better off, is dropping and 3% away from a major support level.

Europe has flattened, but oil is flashing a major bearish signal.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months

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NEUTRAL

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Investors411 has 5 different valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day(s)

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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December 15, 2011

Investment Warning

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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Stock Trading in

Three Dimensions


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A Warning


  • Yesterday in the comments section I issued a warming to traders essentially saying-that there may be a big shark out there. Many stock market analysts will just look at one dimension and look at the technical aspects of a market, usually the benchmark S&P 500 and make a call. That’s using one dimension.
  • Fundamentals are the second dimension. Two weeks ago the Fed and other Central banks essentially told Europe we have your back. There was a huge rally on this news. Yesterday Fed chair Bernanke said he was very worried about Europe but the Fed would NOT bail out Europe. The Fed often works in mysterious ways, but the statement seems opposed to the promised help a couple weeks back.
  • John Murphy is the father of inter market analysis – the third dimension. Different markets are strongly correlated. If commodities fall so will stocks. Yesterday oil prices fell 5.05% (One ugly chart) Industrial Metals fell 2.79% (Another ugly chart) Sugar fell 2.61% (Another Ugly chart) compared to the benchmark S&P 500. It fell 1.13%.  A whole lot less.

The cutting edge of the knife is in the inverse relationship (inter market analysis) between Italian bond yields and stocks.

Virtually all investment eyes are focused on Europe.  The breaking point here is  a 7% yield on the 10 year Italian bond. Reaching 7% would be considered unsustainable for the 3rd largest economy in Europe and force a “controlled bankruptcy.”


Therefore the most important technical tool is

10 year Italian bond rate


Using the linked chart above change the setting to the daily rate. You will see a chart that shot up to 6.89% twice and has been beaten back. At 7:40 EST the Italian bond rate stands at 6.69%. A huge fall.

Some financial entity(s) has intervened through a proxy. Was it a Fed (and/or one of their allies) backed bank/entity?  Who knows?


Bottom Line

Trading in 3D is critical, especially for shorter term traders. We are in a danger zone with the Italian bond yield close to 7.00%. There’s a big SHARK out there.

However, for today it looks like the bulls will rally European markets, which will rally our somewhat oversold stocks. At least that’s how stocks look at 7:40 EST.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.




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