Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
January 31, 2012

We bring Bad Things to Life

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

.

We Bring BAD

Things to Life

.

General Electric

World’s 17th Largest Company


All we want is a level playing field


Trillions of dollars are flowing into an oligarchy of  giant corporate  and wealthy individuals. One group that is  being decimated by this oligarchy is American small businesses.

Mom and Pop want to start a small business in America. They hang up a sign that says OPEN for business.

.

.

Small business are American job creators. In a large part because they have not yet reached the size where it is profitable to outsource major components of their business.

Example: Apple Computer has 43,000 US employees and creates 700,000 jobs in Asia.

The problem is they can’t compete against the giant corporations and their Army of Lobbyists and Lawyers

The corporate oligarchy has one huge advantage

TAXES

Most American businesses are taxed at 35%. That is unless your special like Romney’s Bain Capital and other venture capital firms and hedge funds. Their taxed at 15%

The real problem is giant corporations own the politicians in Washington

What does GE pay in Taxes?


  • GE Had $14.2 Billion in profits ($5.1 billion in the USA) in 2010
  • GE got $10 billion+ in Bailout money because GE Financial was way over leveraged.
  • GE has a huge tax division that is run by & employs ex Treasury and IRS officials.
  • GE was just fined $63 million for IRS violations.

Tax rate – Do they pay

35% – WRONG

15% -WRONG

5%- WRONG

0% –  WRONG

GE in 2010 had a tax benefit of $3.200,000,000

63% Tax Credit RIGHT ANSWER

of what they profited from in the USA

Not only is this an unfair competitive advantage, buy you the tax payer are missing out on billions in potential tax revenue.

In fact YOU (the government) owe GE $3,200,000,000

as write offs on future Taxes


.

********************

.

STOCKS

.


********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
January 30, 2012

Buying Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

.

Buying Democracy

.

How money

Wins Campaigns and  Destroys Democracy

Part 2

.

What if Sheldon Adelson (8th richest man in USA and pictured above) decides to give Newt Gingrich’s Super Pac more than the $10,000,000 he already has? After all $10 million is not even close to one day’s profits from his giant gambling empire.

What if Adelson gives $100,000 million?

What if a Saudi Prince through an American corporation he own/controls/influences  decides to give a $100,000 million?

What if George Soros (7th richest in the USA) decides to give Obama $100,000 million?

Just because Adelson’s chosen to be open about his contribution, doesn’t mean the others have to be open about their contribution.

Money sure helps win elections. (There are some other infuencing factors)

  • Gingrich & Romney spend the same amount of  money in S. Carolina and Gingrich wins.
  • Romney spends the 5 times what Gingrich does in Florida and Romney wins

Where is the Outrage in the media?

There is almost none.

Why?

Because both Democrats and Republicans are out getting all  wealthy oligarch Super Pac money they can.

Its all legal.

_____________


Here’s a photo of one leader who has consolidated power in a supposed democracy with the help of his own wealthy oligarchy. Now, Even billionaires who opposed him are in Siberian jails.

.

Russia’s Vladimire Putin with a former friend

Think this will never happen in the USA?

Did you ever think there would be a legal $10,000,000 campaign contribution to influence a presidential campaign by a Vegas casino owner in the USA and no one cares?

.


********************

.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

.

Short Term Outlook

  • Technicals (Just a reminder of how to evaluate markets/sectors/stocks) Technical analysis identifies the trend by looking at charts of how stocks move. Simplest form a stock price goes up = bullish trend. Down = bearish trend.
  • Chart patterns get a bit more complicated than simply up = bullish and down = bearish, but all in all they act as signposts, or traffic lights on a (price level) road. The worst signs are U turn and Detour.
  • Fundaments- These are the drivers of stocks –  The earnings reports, the jobs number, GDP, money supply and a host of other significant factors.
  • Fundaments are the drivers and the car that move along the road. One good or bad earning report can shatter any sign or light on the technical road.

_______________


  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO)was basically flat at +46.98(for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog)  = NEUTRAL/bearish
  • Repeat from Friday – “The MO can be read like any chart (see  above link) – Three times in January the MO has tried to break out above the 55 to 60 range and failed. Yet is has stayed in a very tight range between 30 and 60. If this range/trend breaks  on the top side bulls win and on the bottom bears win. The fact that the trend is from + 30 to + 60 instead of minus is BULLISH
  • DAX (Germany)  down 1.2%  at 9AM EST. Not good for US markets. Big European Meeting this week. But they are all big meetings. Just lie all 19 Republican debates – each is hyped and hyped
  • Two more considerations for Option combinations. BIDU (Monday earnings) A short term trade.MCP as a possible long option term combination trade.
  • Reading Tea Leaves – It seems the majority of market tea leaf readers I look at are predicting some kind of pull back this week – It would be healthy if markets had a minor consolidation. Earnings season is winding down so outside economic news will start to dominate.
  • The Key to Watch for – Any signs of Central Banks manipulating stocks or bonds. Rumors of a QE #3 abound. (google – news QE 3)

.

********************

.

Paul’s Corner

.

Home Builders Fact or Fiction?

This Saturday I posted the following home building discussion into the comments section. I am reposting it here in case you missed it.

Key Report for Home Builders ETF

LINK

Check the video in the report!

Fact or Fiction?

Now before any of you suggest I should have considered this sort of information before adding several home builders to Your Stock List, keep in mind I read the charts, watch the Industry Groups , etc., and trade accordingly.

Six weeks ago or so I posted a list of home builders to check out. Several had nice charts and a very nice price climb since that post. Did any of you profit from that post? URI was on that list and you would have made a bundle!

LINK

Back in October in the comments section I made a post listing home building stocks that were found in my favorite HGSI High Demand Search. I wish I had paid attention to that signal HGSI handed out!

RYL posted earnings Friday and its share price dropped like a rock at the open to 16.96 and almost immediately climbed to 19 and closed for the day at 18.41. I didn’t listen to the conference call but investors must have liked what they heard.

Several other builders (LEN, DHI) have reported good earnings, beat estimates etc. So do we ignore the charts or trade based on one of Cramer’s videos? That video almost makes you scared to never buy a home builder again. Is the economy that bad? I donno, manufacturing factories are opening nicely in my area, they are hiring again.

Semiconductors

Oh, the semis are moving. Your Stock List and your participation is appreciated. Post them in the comments section so we all can discuss them or email them to Barr.

LINK

HGSI Scans

Here is the link to my post in the comments section from Saturday; below that post are several other posts with results of Jan 27 scans I made with HGSI. Some good looking stocks there!

LINK

Remember all comments are for education only, do your own research and don’t try to blame me for losing your grandkids inheritance.

.

********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
January 28, 2012

Brutal, Just Brutal

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,

Brutal, Just, Brutal

Gingrich Super Pac new 7 minute movie on

Romney and Medicare

Came out at 1:00AM EST

Click on word FRAUD above to see it

.

What’s even worse for Romney is Gingrich , catches Romney in a “blatant lie” in the Tampa debate about 6 Minutes and 30 seconds into the film.

Gingrich “Did Bain have any work with the government such as Medicare and Medicaid.” Romney “We didn’t do any work with the government.”

Documentation for Film at

MittsBloodMoney.com

That’s Gingrich’s Super Pac title NOT mine

Be Afraid, be very afraid because Super Pac adds  by  members of a corrupt oligarchy and permitted by the 5 right wing Supreme Court Justices who gutted campaign finance reform by voting to allow this are buying our democracy.




  • Share/Save/Bookmark
January 27, 2012

Financial Crimes

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Financial Crimes Unit

.

.

Eric Schneiderman- Head of new Financial Crimes Unit.


Obama in the SOTU address announced the creation of a

financial crimes unit.

When Obama took office he appointed Darth Vader/Larry Summers as his chief economic advisor. Summers was under Secretary of Treasury to Robert (former CEO of GS) Ruben who went along with the 1998 the Republican proposal to gut many financial reforms and allow Investment banks to merge with Insurance companies.

1998 was the start and the process continued throughout the Bush administration. Cutting regulations and regulators led to the finacial meltdown of 2008/2009.

Fed Chair, Alan Greenspan Mr “Free Market” himself

admitting deregulating banks was wrong

Summers, who left the Obama administration almost year ago,  had coddled the big banks.

This new unit, which is three years late, will be headed by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman

.

*****************

.

Another Republican Debate

.

.

Republicans will score this a clear win for Romney.

Another typical Republican food fight that was painfully short on solutions and filled with accusations and counter accusations.

Romney’s most effective line was about family values and it absolutely crushes Gingrich – “I stayed with my wife though MS and Cancer” (Newt has had 3 wives and scored big time when jumped on the media for making the topic the first question of the debate.)

More from USA Today


But it’s not over till the fat lady sings

and Newt has a new docudrama coming out at 5:00EST

Preview

If it hits with his billionaire PAC money it could do some damage.

However, Mitt is outspending Newt 3 to 1 in FLD.

.

*********************

.

YOUR Comments

.

A follow up to yesterday’s Yankee Bob editorial - Two outstanding posts (scroll down at link) yesterday on solutions from JS and Yankee Bob on a financial transaction tax. As always PAUL R keeps you up to date with the latest breaking insight in stocks and trading concepts in the comments section.

.

********************

.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

.

Short Term Outlook

  • Mea Culpa –  As some of you know I have been very involved in the Elizabeth Warren Senate campaign. I have not had a chance to work on the Positions page for 2012. I hope to revise it this weekend and on Monday & Wednesday outlined most of an outlook.
  • A lot of 2012 has to do with politics. Do we keep the Bernanke/Obama team that has almost doubled the S&P 500 and led to a slow, but steady economic recovery in place or do politics dramatically alter this?
  • Long term – As long as interest rates stay low, and there is liquidity without inflation – investment money seeking higher returns will be forced into stocks and bonds. This dynamic has not changed under Bernanke/Obama even though other significant sectors of the world have taken some big hits (Europe & Japan) or are slowly pulling back – China.

The POSITIONS page does not yet reflect the

2012 Outlook.


  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell to +43.59 . 50DMA at +5.10 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog)  = NEUTRAL/bearish
  • The MO can be read like any chart (see  above link) – Three times in January the MO has tried to break out above the 55 to 60 range and failed. Yet is has stayed in a very tight range between 30 and 60. If this range/trend breaks  on the top side bulls win and on the bottom bears win. The fact that the trend is from + 30 to + 60 instead of minus is BULLISH
  • Mantra – Low volume rallies are a characteristic of Central Banks and friends manipulating stocks/bonds. They have become quite good at this and these rallies have tended to last.
  • DAX (Germany)  was up over 1% yesterday and this failed to move US markets higher. The disconnect between Europe and the USA is growing. Italian bonds are now below 6%. Conclusion – Its way too early to call a long term trend, but it looks like there is some light at the end of a what will continue to be a long dark tunnel for Europe.
  • NFLX –  Kudos to Jim J who made a 65% Profit on his combination Option Trade of NFLX. The Strike price for both the Put and Call was $95 and the expiration this Friday. NFLX ended the day up +22.06 after earnings.
  • Two more considerations for Option combinations. BIDU (Monday earnings) A short term trade. MCP as a possible long option term combination trade.
  • Homebuilders, will be a recommendation this year. 3 homebuilders have been added to YSL 2012 this week. ETF’s - Paul seems to prefer the ITB homebuilders ETF. I like the XHB because it is @5x more liquid and therefore a better for options. Both work as a long term investment.

.

********************

.

Paul’s Corner

.

The market sure has been on a tear since the start of the year. Many of Your Stock List 2012 stocks have given good returns. Earnings season is always fun, just when you expect a “pause and refresh” some 2 bit company like AAPL blows out estimates and comments from the  Fed add fuel to the party. Party (risk) on?

Um…….well no….. if we look at the charts we see many stocks topping and the averages starting to roll over. HGSI chart indicators definitely show topping/turning in the market. Does this mean we sell and run? No but it suggests keeping an eye on our profits.

The “negative” housing report yesterday took some nice gains out of the housing stocks. The report showed a decline in housing sales in December. Come on, who really buys a home in December? RYL reported last evening and the various news articles don’t make sense, some say RYL met expectations, some say RYL missed. We will probably know by 10 AM which report is correct.  If RYL starts ticking off in trading, it’s not a time to roll the dice and buy the dip, give the chart a few days to settle down.

Changes to Your stock List 2012

The following stocks are on the chopping block and are ready to be removed from Your Stock List.

FTK – the news of the cut back in “dry gas” drilling has given FTK a 10% decline in 5 days. A buy the dip? I’m not one who is going to roll the dice on this one.

BKI – an earnings miss and a 10% loss in two days on high volume

We are looking for a semi conductor stock to add to Your Stock List, suggestions?

The Important Stuff

BX34 A bus size asteroid passes earth 40,000 miles away at10:30 AM today. You might hold off any trades until after BX34 passes by.

LINK:

AAPL has labor issues? Apple execs have long known about abuses of its Chinese workers at its suppliers’ factories but have turned a blind eye, according to a new report from The New York Times. The allegations include knowingly hiring underage workers, improperly disposing of hazardous waste and forcing employees to work continuous shifts and extended overtime.

LINK:

Canadian kids, Lego’s and a balloon - A tiny Lego man clutching a Canadian flag has made history of sorts, making the first space flight for Lego-kind aboard a weather balloon rigged by two high school students from Toronto, Canada. Canadian teenagers Mathew Ho and Asad Muhammad, both 17, attached the figurine – and four cameras – to a helium balloon that went up 80,000 feet into the air, the Toronto Star reported.

LINK:

Wait! Asad Muhammad??? One of those Muslim terrorists planning an aerial attack on the US? I donno…..

Disclaimer, you know the routine.


.

********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
January 26, 2012

Who Owns Big Government?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
.
Real American

Business Leaders
.

.
Bill Gates
.
Nobody’s perfect, but let’s compare.

  • Warren Buffett – Why should I have a lower tax rate than my secretary”
  • Steve Jobs -  Fox News is - “An incredibly distructive Force”

Remember the giant corporations and the weathy have  an army of lobbyists and lawyers in Washington. This is what they pushed for

  • 1998 – Tore apart banking regulations like allowing  banks to merge with insurance companies
  • 2004 – SEC allows bank over leveraging to grow from 12 to 1 to 40 to 1
  • 2008/09 – Financial meltdown. Housing crisis, Bush/Paulson  bailout of too big to fail banks. -9% GDP & stocks tank

Nothing we can do becuse its all legal They privatize gains. We taxpayers subsidize the losses

  • Romney (uber wealthy) paid 13.9% rate on his 2010 taxes while most working American pay far more.
  • Romney’s company Bain, like hedge funds and other investment firms, pay only 15% on their profits while small business pay a much higher tax rate.
  • Romney, sets up $100 millon dollar tax funds for all his sons without paying taxes. We can’t.
  • Gingrich, like all politicians, can exit politics and make millions lobbying for government agencies (Fannie & Freddie)

.

ITS LEGAL, ITS LEGAL, ITS LEGAL

Because they own our government.


Elizabeth Warren -

In her passionate plea to fight for the working middle class -


“Washington now works for those who can hire an army of lobbyists and an army of lawyers … 30 largest companies pay more for lobbyists than they do taxes...Who really pays for that?…And the answer is America’s middle class. They’re the ones left to pick up the pieces, to pay the taxes, to keep the country running.”

.

********************
.
He’s Back
.
.
Yankee Bob
on
Taxes and Transparency
.
Vampire Mitt is calling on Gingrich to release the entire contract between Newt and Fannie Mae. He isn’t satisfied with the little dump that Newt did on it. He wants it all!

What a schmoe. He wants to see all of Newt’s contract??!! OK,Mitt let’s see all of your tax returns from your years at Bain. How can you argue Newt must come clean and then say one year of your tax returns is good enough? It isn’t and Mitt is pretty much asking for trouble here

___________
.
Did you see that Sarkozy is pushing for a financial tax? .01-to .1% on equity trades and the collected money to be aimed at helping the poor.

Think of how much money would go in the Treasury if sales tax were applied to all equity trades even at a modest .01 %. why not extend it to bonds, currency, loans and all. Why do I have to pay a  6% sales tax on a book,a calender, a stove but Mitt can buy a company and doesn’t have to pay on that?

Would Wall Street cease to trade if they had to pay a small tax on their trades? The babies howell about 15% capital gains. Why not a sales tax on trades or leveraged buyouts?

********************

.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

.

Short Term Outlook


  • Getting out of the rest of EUO. The ETF that double short the Euro. As announced in the comments section a week or so ago I sold some then. Now the rest. Reasoning –  The bond rates for Italy and Spain are out of danger zone and more talks of concessions from Germany, ECB & IMF.
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +57.59. 50DMA at +5.00 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) Stocks are slightly overbought, but still have some wiggle room to go higher = NEUTRAL/BEARISH
  • From yesterday - Low volume rallies are a characteristic of Central Banks and friends manipulating stocks/bonds. They have become quite good at this and these rallies have tended to last.
  • DAX (Germany) up this AM 1.44% at 8:15 AM EST. Put Rally Caps on.
  • NFLX – Wouda Shouda Couda – It sure looks like NFLX is going to be a huge money maker combination option trade this AM after a positive eanings surprise. I did not pull the trigger for the Investors411 portfilio. My Bad, especially becuse I hyped this Options combination trade.

.

********************

.

Paul’s Corner

As many of you know I use High Growth Stock Investors (HGSI) software in my daily stock analysis. I also use a product known as EdgeRater which I use specifically for market analysis and timing.

Chris White the CEO of EdgeRater is giving a free training course for EdgeRater and is incorporating HGSI. Ian Woodward from HGSI will be presenting his new proprietary “Woody Indicator”. This new indicator gives market turning signals several days before any other indicator.

This will be an online video presentation which you can watch at your leisure. You will have free trial use of both the EdgeRater and HGSI software.

Details:

This free course will be delivered in a special online classroom by a progression of videos rather than webinar and so you can consume them in your own time. It’s a new format that I’m trying out and you will get a link to the classroom after you register for the course there’s a welcome message in there right now which will tell you more about the format.

Register Here: LINK

Event Details:

EdgeRater v5 has just been released and has several new updates to work even smarter with HGSIv8. I will be running a free online training course starting this Friday where you can find out how these products work together to provide a dynamic duo of trading tools.

The training will be run over the course of 2 weeks and all registrants will have access to trial versions of both EdgeRater v5 and HGSI v8 if needed. The training will start from the ground up so no prior knowledge of either of these programs is required but it is open to everybody and there are some exciting new findings that will be revealed that will help you stay on the right side of the market.

So if you have ever been interested in finding out how to scan the market for trading candidates and discovering historical performance of trading strategies then you should join me in this unique course starting on Friday.

Register Here: http://www.edgerater.com/events/erhgsi.aspx

Chris White

CEO, EdgeRater LLC

.

********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


  • Share/Save/Bookmark
January 25, 2012

State of the Union

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

.

SOTU

.

.

George “Been Forgotten” Bush went over the top with his “your either with us or against us” proclamation.  A line he later regretted.

Remember, those of us who opposed the Iraq war were hated as un American and not Patriotic. Emotions ran high because of the terrible 911 tragedy, but now some healing  has occurred over a war that was a tragic mistake.


The heart of Obama’s speech

.

We don’t begrudge financial success in this country. We admire it. When Americans talk about folks like me paying my fair share of taxes, it’s not because they envy the rich. It’s because they understand that when I get tax breaks I don’t need and the country can’t afford, it either adds to the deficit, or somebody else has to make up the difference – like a senior on a fixed income; or a student trying to get through school; or a family trying to make ends meet. That’s not right. Americans know it’s not right.

.

Why are Romney’s Poll numbers Dropping?

.

Romney provides the contrast to Obama SOTU and makes Bush’s “you’re either with us or against us”  milquetoast.

The following 20 second video is a perfect example of raging extremism. The kind of shouted hatred that twists the minds of so many of our fellow Americans into blind fear mongered emotionalist.  Romney -

“I’m going to Stuff it Down Obama’s Throat”

Click on photo for 20 second video

As far as timing goes Obama caught a huge break that his SOTU address came directly after Romney released just his 2012 tax returns (13.9% tax rate) that have opened a massive amount of new questions. (future editorials)

More on SOTU here and NYT here


********************

.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

.

Short Term Outlook

.

  • Apple had a grand slam earnings report and was up 8% in after hours trading. So were Asian markets
  • Repeat from Last Week - ”We have confirmed a higher high on the benchmark index — the S&P 500 (link to chart of S&P near top right of blog). This is a higher high on the charts and longer term its bullish.”
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell  to +41.48. 50DMA at +3.98 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) Stocks are slightly overbought, but overallNEUTRAL
  • From Last week – “We are in a low volume rally” In Paul’s Corner he points out the decrease in volume over the last five days. There have been lots of technicians who are calling for a pull back here. I tend to see 1350 1370 as the target on the S&P 500 before a significant retreat. (S&P now at 1314)
  • Low volume rallies are a characteristic of Central Banks and friends manipulating stocks/bonds. They have become quite good at this and these rallies have tended to last.
  • DAX (Germany) down this AM 0.67% at 7:00 AM EST. Italian bond’s two week long yield fall puts it well out of the 7% danger zone. But yields rose yesterday and this AM to  +6.23%. The Spanish and Italian bond reversal shows some economic stability returning to two of Europe’s largest economies and is bullish
  • NFLX reports earnings after the bell. Watch comments section for details on possible combination Option Trade.

Overnight Data From Europe

Germany’s DAX

Italian 10 year bond

.

********************


.

.

2012 Stock Forecast

The Raw Data

..

The Bad

The OVERVIEW Section of the blog contains a detailed outline of the systemic problems. Even better at the end there are 11 different sources that go over the problems and solutions  facing our country and the world.

  • Too Big to Fail Shadow Banks remain a significant problem. Jon Huntsman was the only candidate with a significant viable solution. Current solutions that rely on Dodd Frank regulators are weak unless laws are further change and enforcement dramatically enhanced.  The oligarchy privatizes gains and rest of us socialize their losses.
  • Globalization continues to benefit emerging markets that supply cheap labor and an oligarchy of wealthy Americans who rake in profits. Its devastating to American workers who see the jobs go abroad and profits to wealthy Americans.
  • Apple Computer is the best example of this. Apple employes 43,000 workers in the USA and contracts 700,000 abroad. Giant American companies have loyalty to profits and not to Americans.
  • Our government is simply overwhelmed by corporate lobbyist and money. For more Robert Reich

.

********************

.

Paul’s Corner


Your Stock List 2012 Additions

and Box 7 Stocks

.

There are signs of a short term stalling in the market. The market finished flat Tuesday with declining volume, advancers vs. decliners were virtually even all day but finished slightly up, 1619 Advancers vs.  1376 decliners.  The following chart shows how volume has been declining for the past 5 days.

LINK:

There are no signs the world is coming to an end, but a slight pause to refresh is probably in the cards. The home builders took off this morning and most had a good day.

The following stocks have been added to Your Stock List 2012

RYL – The Ryland Group, Inc. operates as a homebuilders and a mortgage-finance company in the United States. Its operations in homebuilding process range from design, construction, and sale to mortgage origination, title insurance, escrow, and insurance services to its homebuyers. The company offers completed homes; single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes, condominiums, and mid-rise buildings, as well as sells lands and lots. It builds homes for entry-level buyers, as well as for first and second-time move-up buyers. RYL reports tonight after the market close, average estimates are 0.06.

LEN – Lennar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in homebuilding, financial services, and real estate businesses in the United States. Its homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes; and the purchase, development, and sale of residential land. The company’s financial services comprise mortgage financing, title insurance, and closing services for the buyers of homes and others. Its real estate activities include investments in distressed real estate assets.

FAST – Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wholesaler and retailer of industrial and construction supplies. It offers fastener product line under two categories, which include threaded fasteners, such as bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and building projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines and structures; and miscellaneous supplies, including paints, various pins and machinery keys, concrete anchors, batteries, sealants, metal framing systems, wire rope, strut, private-label stud anchors, rivets, and related accessories.

Dave Steckler posted a great blog last evening discussing Home Building and the ITB ETF.

LINK:

In Paul’s Corner this Monday we discussed Box 7 stocks.  The following chart shows the current Box 7 stocks as selected by HGSI criteria.

Keep in mind these are stocks that should be considered turn around stocks. They aren’t guaranteed to make you dime, in fact quite a few Box 7’s perform  really bad, so it’s up to you to carefully pick. We won’t be following these stocks on any sort of basis but will post results from time to time.

CHART:

Disclaimer, stocks listed are for education only, no buy or sell suggestions are made.  At the time of posting I may own any stock on these lists.

.


********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
January 24, 2012

RIP – US Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

.

.

Democracy Dying

.

Billionaire Sheldon Adelson

Donates Another $5,000,000

to Gingrich Super PAC


Yesterday’s blog detailed the vicious negative & effective character assassination assaults of the Super Pacs for both the Romney and Gingrich presidential campaigns.


Why the Super PAC’s?

because fear mongering negatives work

They Buy YOUR vote?


You can have an army of outside attack adds decimate your opponent and funded by anyone or any entity/corporation that wants to buy/own a candidate.  These hidden or transparent oligarchs buy votes, thanks to the US Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision.


This week the target of Gingrich’s Super Pack will be Mitt Romney and they have plenty of fresh ammo because


Romney just released his

2010 Tax Returns.


  • Romney has 13.9% Tax rate for 2010.
  • Romney has/had a Swiss Bank Account.
  • Romney has/had other off shore banking accounts in noted tax havens Luxembourg and the Cayman Islands
  • Romney unlike his father, Obama and Biden has NOT released 10+ years of tax returns – only 1 with an estimate for 2011

_______________

Some of the negative attack adds that are being used so far below.

Here and here and here and here

and here and here and here

____________


How to Fight Back

.

protest

Join United For The People


We believe that America works best when our government is of, by and for the people. Although we have differences in scope and tactics, all of us are united in the understanding that the Court’s decision in Citizens United must be remedied by amending the Constitution in order to restore the democratic promise of America.”

.

******************

.

STOCKS

Back tomorrow with Stock Section

Check Out Comments Section For More

___________

Headlines

US, French, English warship go through Gulf of Hormuz,   Europe agrees against Iran Sanctions,   Prez addresses nation tonight,   Earnings season continues,  Overbought markets due for a pull back

___________

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


  • Share/Save/Bookmark
January 23, 2012

One Big Party

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Special Note

Investors411 2012 Yearly Investment Outlook

is in the Stock Section Below


********************

.

One Big Party

The news of the morning - The first Florida prediction poll is out since South Carolina and its Newt +9%. Its only one poll, but there is a change in momentum. Its way to early to call this race.

Some interesting political analysis  ”Mitt Romney’s Misery in a Word Bain “(Politico)

Clearly Republican voters in South Carolina felt Gingrich won the debates, but there was another even more significant factor.


Super Pac Money


“There are probably less than 100 [obscenely wealthy] people fueling 90% of these Pacs”

LINK

In Iowa it was Romney’s Super Pac that spent millions on negative adds against Gingrich. He was caught flat footed. He obtained one agreeable billionaire and created his own giant super Pac They smashed Romney with negative adds in South Carolina and spent just as much money as he did.

Florida Super Pacs are already in full swing with the vast amount of money not spent on building a case for constructive ideas on how to help fix out economy, but scathing negative character assassination.

Everybody says they hate these adds, but the reality is they work. Romney beats Gingrich in Iowa by going negative with his super PAC and Gingrich beats Romney in Florida by going negative with his.

___________


In the last election we saw a massive amount of money go to Obama from Wall Street. Almost every progressive will tell you Obama has not delivered becuse he is influenced or ownd by big money.

Sure there is a difference between Republican views and Democrats (watch the debates) But in the end to compete with the winner of the Republican Primary Obama is going  to need his own Super Pac’s to go negative.

End result

A group of wealthy oligarchs determine the outcome of what used to be called


Democracy


We are slowly morphing into one big party

.


********************


.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

.

Short Term Outlook

.

  • Earnings reports continue to be the #1 focus. Semi & Housing Stocks are leading the bulls.  Obama’s State of the Union will be of note. Global healing editorial.
  • Repeat from Friday – “We have confirmed a higher high on the benchmark index — the S&P 500 (link to chart of S&P near top right of blog). This is a higher high on the charts and longer term its bullish.”
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell slightly to +52.63. 50DMA at +2.72 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) Just below overbought territory = NEUTRAL/BEARISH

  • From Friday – “We are in a low volume rally. This means the manipulators (central banks, HFT’s and other giant sharks) are in control.” Sorry I haven’t got the details on how this is happening, only a recognition of its existence (see yield rates falling below) Low volume rallies can last a long time as we saw when the Fed introduced quantitative easing (QE #! & QE #2)
  • DAX down this AM 0.57% at 6:00 AM EST. Italian bond’s two week long yield fall puts it well out of the 7% danger zone at 6.13%. The Spanish and Italian bond reversal shows some economic stability returning to two of Europe’s largest economies and is bullish

Overnight Data From Europe

Germany’s DAX

Italian 10 year bond

.

********************

.

.

2012 Stock Forecast

The Raw Data

..

Those of you who are long term investors in the markets and have been with Investors411 for years know that (except for unforeseen events) the yearly forecast has been very accurate. For an overview of why go to the OVERVIEW section of the blog (see top bar of blog)

Most of the Raw Data will be presented this week and a conclusion over the weekend or next week.


NB – Three parts will be presented

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

.


Chart by Cam Hui from his editorial Global Healing

The Good


In 2009 Obama took over Presidency of the USA. Financial Armageddon was predicted and we entered the greatest worldwide recession since the Great Depression.

The following is a list of the changes and the trend flow since then.

  • The stock market has doubled (Thanks to Paul R for heads up on this)
  • USA GDP unexpectedly fell to over -9% in the quarter before Obama took office and now its at @+2%
  • Monthly Jobless claims were at - 750,000 per month in early 2009. Today +200,000 per month (seasonally adjusted I’d say +150,000 is more accurate)
  • A record setting -599,000 have been eliminated from government. If these jobs were still in existence the monthly jobs growth figure would be higher.
  • US corporations are sitting on more cash than ever before ($1.9 trillion) Most company profits are again beating expectations.
  • Relative to the rest of the world – Japan (tsunami) India & China (GDP in decline) Europe (crisis) – the USA is outperforming (Thanks to EW for his heads up on this)
  • While it may be just a little too soon to call the trend, there has been a three month surge in housing stocks The fall in housing prices was a dominant factor in the great recession.

The USA under Obama and his Fed Chair Bernanke is in a slow steady recovery with little sign of inflation on the horizon.

Later this week the Bad and the Ugly




********************


.

Paul’s Corner


,

Box 7 Stocks

There are many ways I search and select stocks. As I have shown several times I use a “High Demand” search available in HGSI. I posted a review of the latest High Demand search in the comments section this past Saturday.

Link:

Another favorite of mine is to use HGSI and search for what we call “Box 7” stocks. A recent Your Stock List 2012 winner FTK was found using the Box 7 search.

Many years ago my good friend Ian Woodward (HGSI) found that if one would qualify a stock by its past 5 years earnings history and its current growth you could get an idea how fast the stock would grow and as a result your wallet would grow.

Ian devised what he calls the “Nine Box Matrix – the Rule of 72” where you can place a stock, depending on its earnings history and growth, and evaluate its expected growth. He was kind enough to prepare a Power Point presentation for Investors 411 readers explaining the Nine Box Matrix. Ian’s Power Point gives you the history of development and examples of some winning stocks.

Link:

Looking at Ian’s Nine Box Matrix we find in Box 7, stocks with a past earnings history of 15 – 25% and a current growth rate of >100% for the last 2 quarters. Many call these stocks “Turn Around Stocks,” stocks that have stubbed their toes and are recovering, or stocks that are new and are accelerating. Box 7 stocks can provide some real rocket ships; FTK for example.

Page 10 of Ian’s Power Point shows Box 7 stocks selected back on Dec 10 and their current standing last week on Jan 17. Look at #2 FTK with a 34% gain!  Keep in mind not all Box 7 stocks give this sort of return, but with some careful selection and a market with the wind at your back they can be fun!

This Wednesday in Paul’s Corner, I’ll post a list of current Box 7 stocks for your review.

HGSI has a 45 day free trial:

My usual worthless disclaimer applies!


********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
January 20, 2012

Money Bomb

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update

.

Money Bomb


Elizabeth Warren Money Bomb - January 19, 2012 - Display images to see the current total

.

Thanks to any of you who came to (D) Elizabeth Warren’s “Money Bomb” party at our house. All across Massachusetts the grass roots came together to donate and make calls.

Raising a million+ in one day is great, but

Here’s the problem

Even though this is a phenomenal amount of $$$, her opponent has a big head start and Carl Rove is already running negative Super PAC attack adds. Click on photo or here for more.

.

******************

.

Unnatural Causes

.

.

Investors411 has spent time in recent weeks going over how countries with greater income inequality has a devastating impact on everything from trust to mental illness of the people in that country.

Dictatorships and countries run by wealthy oligarchies are even a more obvious example of income inequality having a devastating impact on populations.

,

Unnatural Causes

.

They started as a documentary that formed a world wide

political action group on how inequality causes illness.

Thanks to AG for heads up on this


********************

.

Toaster Gets Toasted

As usual, the 17th Republican debate was not about substance and jobs, but negatives hyperbole and attacks.

Two candidates knew the question that was coming. Newt about his 2nd wife’s allegations and Romney about his taxes.

No matter what you think about either candidate or what they did.

Newt hit a home run (video)

Romney struck out (video)

Now that Perry is out of the debate, Romney the former toaster is getting toasted.  He’s flipped flopped back to “maybe” about his tax returns and perhaps for Obama in April.

What an insult to Republicans in South Carolina and Republicans everywhere. You don’t have the transparency of Mitt’s tax returns being made public for you to make an informed decision on voting.

Romney’s father released 12 years of his tax returns and started this tradition of openness and transparency..

.

********************

.

STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

.

  • Look out. Tech giant GOOG badly missed earnings last night.
  • We have confirmed a higher high on the benchmark index – the S&P 500. This is a higher high on the charts and longer term its bullish.
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +56.58.  50DMA at +2.01 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) Just below overbought territory = neutral/BEARISH
  • DAX way down 0.55% this AM (8:00 EST) and the Italian 10 year bond  full retreat for almost two weeks continues. The later is in the longer term bullish.
  • Options Combination Trades – I realize lots of this is very technical and many do not understand it. But there is a group of you who do trade options. For them – If you bought GOOG options (I mentioned it but passed on the trade because the options cost a lot) you are going to have a huge gain this AM because GOOG was down 9+% in post market trading.
  • Longer term indicators are bullish, but it sure looks like some traders may sell today. We are in a low volume rally. This means the manipulators (central banks, HFT’s and other giant sharks) are in control. Best example of this is how the Italian bond is being pushed lower.
  • Politics, potential trade wars, globalization are all major factors on the long term outlook for 2012. Will work on this over weekend. Sorry it’s so slow in coming out.

Overnight Data From Europe

Germany’s DAX

Italian 10 year bond

.

********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

  • Share/Save/Bookmark
January 19, 2012

A Jobs Creator?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update

A Jobs Creator?

,

Mitt Romney (R) & Deval Patrick (D)

A tale of Two governors as Jobs Creators


As you know, the jobless rate each state roughly reflects the jobless rate of the country.

.

Romney served as Massachusetts governor from the start January 2, 2003, to January 4, 2007. Patrick from Jan. 4 2007 to present.

So let’s look at the jobless rate in the USA and Massachusetts when they were governors in the following interactive graph with data from Bureau of Labor Statistics

.

Unemployment graph for Massachusetts and USA

.

Mitt Romney (R) & Jobs

Basically, at the start and a few months into his administration the MA jobless rate is a tiny bit below the USA  and when his administration ends it’s a tiny bit above or flat.

.

Romney’s public record as a jobs creator is

slightly below average

.

Deval Patrick (D) and Jobs

Basically, Patrick starts out with a jobless rate that’s flat or slightly above the USA average. But as the graph shows over time to today that difference widens to a huge 1.5% better than the national average.

.

Patrick’s public record as a jobs creator is

outstanding

.

Einstein said everything is relative. So compare Patrick to Romney & Romney to the USA. Which governor made a difference in Massachusetts?

.

Romney, the businessman’s

record as an elected official

in creating jobs is

Below Average

,

********************


STOCKS

.

Wall Street Bull and OWS Symbol

.

  • Outlook pretty much the same. Some major banks report early today and tech companies after the bell.
  • Semi conductors and home builders are leading the bulls
  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +52.25.  50DMA at +1.41 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) Just below ovebought territory = NEUTRAL/BEARISH
  • DAX way up 0.55% this AM (8:00 EST) and the Italian 10 year bond is in full retreat for over a week. The correlation between European & US stock markets has become weaker, but still significant. Latest data below. All this = BULLISH

Overnight Data From Europe

Germany’s DAX

Italian 10 year bond

.

********************

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

.





  • Share/Save/Bookmark
Page: /2012/01/ : TestLink1 - TestLink2 - TestLink3