Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
February 29, 2012

Stopping The Vampire Squid

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

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The Vampire Squid

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Globalized Finances

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The biggest loss in our vampire “extraction” financial system is not the trillions in wealth lost or the trillions printed by Central banks.

It is the fact that we are no longer running a capitalist financial system.

We are running a system based on unregulated gambling or placing bets on the credit worthiness of  YOUR money. Gone is most of incentive for competition to find worthy clients to loan money to.

Instead banks profit now by bundle loans and sell them to investment banks. Then they are placed on an unregulated $600 trillion dollar casino (Credit Default Swaps/derivatives market) to be bet on.

From Financial Analyst

Dylan Ratigan

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Solutions

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From the Great Depression we put rules in place on our financial structure that prevented systemic risk. Those were weakened and finally collapsed near the turn of the century.

The easy answer is to put those rules back in place.

How?


The Volker Rule

The NYT

editorial yesterday


Some Specific Changes from Dylan Ratigan’s Chart which has been featured through out this series.

The advantages of this solution is regulations worked for  over 6 decades and its far less chaotic than the Libertarian solution presented yesterday.

The vast majority of the American public don’t even know a huge over leveraged, unregulated casino of derivatives or credit default swaps betting even exists. At some point in time a credit imbalance is going to be too big for the already up to their neck in freshly printed money for the Central banks to handle.

You know what happens next.


End of series


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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

  • Employment numbers for February, usually come out on first Friday and this could be a short term market moving number.
  • Dow moved over 13,000 milestone and gobs of Technical analys all reconize that stocks are overbought.
  • However the mantra is again - Stocks/Bonds/Currencies are being manipulated by central banks.  This week Investors showed $6.5 trillion is now the balance sheet of the Fed and ECB.
  • Low volume rallies are here to stay until this system cracks.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -14.47. 50 Day Moving Average at +21.46 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Lots of wiggle room for bears and bulls = NEUTRAL

  • The Manipulation – The European Central Bank – loans money to troubled Spanish and Italian banks for a nominal rate and they go out and buy troubled Spanish and Italian bonds. Spain and Italy are many times larger than other troubled European countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal and therefore far more important.
  • Like the USA after the Lehman collapse, Central bank money printing , now up to $6.5 trillion, is keeping both Europe and the USA economically solvent. Our 10 year Treasury bills are near 2%
  • Italian 10 year bond yield fell again to 5.27% (6:30 AM EST) - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of almost a month ago.

  • If the bubble does pop Italian bond yields will explode higher. – But So far…

NO SIGN OF THIS (yet).

NB – The “yet” at the end. It may be a week, a year, or even longer, but the bubble is building and you know what expanding bubbles do.


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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 28, 2012

Solutions

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

Banksta’s At Play

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Blackmail


We have an American dominated unregulated worldwide banking system that

“takes money from others without creating anything of value, anything that produces economic growth or anything that improves our lives.”

The too big to fail bankstas own both parties in the USA through their lobbyist and campaign contributions. Through Central bank money printing they are even bigger now than they were before the 2008 meltdown.

No politician in the USA who dares stand up to the bankstas and their unregulated opaque casino will ever get elected if they defy the bankstas. Banksta’s own most of the media, their allies make multi million dollar contributions and a narrow majority on the Supreme court has made all this legal.

Besides they are too big to fail. So if they go down so does the system.

Two very opposite groups

are fighting the Bankstas

First

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The Libertarians

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Libertarians are truly compassionate real conservatives who 100% believe in free markets and limited government.

Most libertarians understand how bankstas have decimated everyone from the American middle class to Greek citizens.

Their solution is to eliminate almost all checks, balances, regulators, regulations including Central Banks and return to the gold standard.

A gold standard would put an immediate halt to money printing and so would eliminating the FED. The casino banksters without the protection of money printing Central Banks would explode.

This solution works,

but the result is uncharted chaos

Tomorrow – More Solutions and perhaps Libertarian Ron Paul isn’t America’s last hope.

NB – One very interesting Libertarian financial blog is Zero Hedge.

Dylan Ratigan quote above in red.


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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

  • The major change is overbought oil prices fell (USO) 1.98%. Like with Apple agin this analysts Tom DeMark 13 day indicator was the exact point  for the reversal.
  • Like AAPL if you’re a short term trader you cashed in (USO & UCO), but if you’re a longer term investor, the major fundamental behind the price rise discussed yesterday has NOT changed.  Furthermore, if we see more short covering today in oil, a buy the dip opportunity arrises.
  • This Just in at 8:30AM EST - Durable goods numbers missed big time in January and could hurt stocks today. But January is a relatively bad month after the holiday season.  If more bad data points come in then you could see a problem. – A problem that would be answered with more money printing. (QE3)

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -11.47. 50 Day Moving Average at +20.68 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Lots of wiggle room for bears and bulls = NEUTRAL

  • From Yesterday – The European canary in a coal mine is chirping. But focus is going to be drawn more on Israel/Iran because of the Israel PM visit and politics.
  • Italian 10 year bond yield fell to 5.35% (8:30 EST) - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of almost a month ago.
  • If the Italian bond drops any lower the canary is going to start singing “Ode to Joy.”


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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 27, 2012

Greed

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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GREED

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The Vampire Bankstas

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In Vegas you need to have actual money to gamble – your own money – You win lose or draw.

What Banksta greed has done since  deregulation  was…

  • take YOUR money, and gamble with it
  • with NO requirement or significant risk to their money
  • and over leverage themselves on opaque derivative/credit default swaps markets

You’ve seen the consequences and now its time for…


The Bankstas Cover Up

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Back before banks were deregulated, a special group of banks that met our Central Bank’s requirements were given special legal privileges and access to taxpayer money.

They could borrow money from the Fed for almost nothing and then lend it right back to the Fed at a higher interest rate – say 3%.

This actually helped money flow through the system.

But after the 2008 meltdown and the banks got soooooooo over leveraged they needed truck loads of money to cover old losses and new (think European debt) So Central banks printed and printed and printed money and loaned it out to their member banks.

How much money was printed for Bankstas?

The Fed (our central bank) balance sheet on 2/22 stood at $2,917,435,000,000 &

the ECB (Europes Central Bank) balance sheet stood at $3,550,000,000,000 on 1/1/12

$6,500,000,000,000

to keep their too big to fail

unregulated Casino open

Tomorrow – Solutions.

Much of this 6 part series was inspired by Dylan Ratigan’s book Greedy Bastards.

Link to Chart/Timeline of Banksta Takeover

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

We’re still in the CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH sweet spot, but there are dark clouds on the horizon.


  • Sweet Spot Mantra - “INVESTORS411 has not changed its long term outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.”
  • Therefore - “Anyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher. Our economy either gets better or the Fed has our back”

The Dark Clouds/Oil Prices


This is now one obvious call that Investors411 first warned about on 1/6/12 and 1/17/12

Suggested ETFs for oil – USO (1 x oil prices) & UCO (2 x oil prices)

If you bought UCO on Jan. 17th you are now up

+20%

The primary fear behind this rise in oil prices is the threat of war between Israel and Iran.

Intrade, now puts the possibility of an overt air strike against by US or Iran by Dec 2012 at 42.5%.

  • This is political season and fear mongering is what the far right does best.
  • The current PM of Israel is extremely right wing and visits USA on March 5th.
  • Yes this is exactly what happened in Iraq.

Obama – on oil prices

Oil prices have gone up 9 days in a row and 12 of the last 13 days. By most all accounts overbought territory.

However, if you have lots of long positions, you should still think about some protection or taking some profits.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) is at -6.88. 50 Day Moving Average at +20.20 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Lots of wiggle room for bears and bulls = NEUTRAL

  • The European canary in a coal mine is chirping. But focus is going to be drawn more on Israel/Iran because of the Israel PM visit and politics.
  • Italian 10 year bond yield at 5.45% (8:30 EST) - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of almost a month ago.

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Paul’s Corner

SIMO is being dropped from Your Stock List due to chart action.  The Semi Group has been doing well but SIMO broke down and hasn’t been following the group. It’s a maker of flash drives and will be watched for possible adding back to the list.

SWI is being moved from the Watchers section up to the Traders section.  SolarWinds, Inc. designs, develops, markets, sells, and supports enterprise information technology (IT) infrastructure management software to IT professionals. SWI and old member of a previous list is showing good chart action and may give us a good run.

Kudos to Ian Woodward!

You have heard me speak often about the HGS Investors group and Ian Woodward in particular. Ian is an inspiration to all that are lucky enough to come into contact with him. John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger bands concept, had some kind words for Ian when he was interviewed in the upcoming March issue of “Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities”. Here is what Bollinger says in part:

“A little more than two years ago, I had the pleasure of spending time with Ian Woodward, who has been doing some interesting things with Bollinger Bands.  It was an inspiring time for me.”

“Ian Woodward is an amazing guy….A couple of years back, a mutual friend arranged for Ian to drop by and show me the work he was doing, and I was very impressed.  Here was a man nearly XXX years old (true age redacted!!!) with more ideas and energy than most people half his age.  He has taken input from William O’Neil, Richard Arms and me and crafted an approach to investing that seeks to identify and participate in high-growth stocks.  He gives three day seminars twice a year that are jam-packed with interesting ideas.   I even had one of the guys who works for me attend.  I think that in the fullness of time he’ll be known as one of the great analysts.”

Ian’s next work shop is in a month if you are serious about investing you should attend!

http://www.highgrowthstock.com/Seminars/seminars.htm

European Markets are down, our futures are down, have we seen the top? Be careful!

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 18, 2012

Relaxing

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags:

Investors411

Will Be taking some time off, but…

The comments section is wide open

Quiet, don’t wake the sleeping bear


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February 17, 2012

Trade Wars

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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Vampire Squids, Bankstas,

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& Vampire Capitalism

Will Return in the next Investors411

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Republicans

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In 1928 we elected a proven businessman president. His name was Herbert Hover.  He enacted the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act. and a worldwide trade war began that sank the world into the Great Depression.

Yesterday another proven business leader running for President doubled down on his commitment to launch a trade war against China on day one of his presidency – Mitt Romney.

This is a major reason

Romney has to be stopped

Romney wrote an Op-ed in the WSJ, as the soon to be  leader of China is visiting the USA.

Fellow Republican and former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman replied –

Link to editorial and reply.

Link to video reply

  • Are the Chinese currency manipulators – Yes
  • Is the US a currency manipulator – Yes  (quantitative easing is massive currency manipulation.)
  • Are trade practices unfair – Yes

But you do NOT accuse China in front of the world court on day 1 of  your [the Romney] Presidency“.

Asian cultures are about saving face, and to China this act would be a direct escalation into a trade war. Plus,  You all know how good Republicans are at fear mongering – Think Iraq.


This has a very real possibility of happening, because there are Democrats and Republicans led by Chuck Shumer (D) who have already pass similar legislation through the Senate.

Every Neocon and weapons manufacturer is drooling at another explode (pun intended) the national debt war.

(Again more later)

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

  • Mantra“INVESTORS411 has not changed its long term outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.”
  • Therefore - “Anyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher. Our economy either gets better or the Fed has our back”
  • There could be some very negative consequences to Bernanke/Fed manipulation of markets and economies. But looking foward for 3+ months this is bullish for stocks.

Shorter Term

  • AAPL , the mother of all stocks ended up with only a 7% drop from its high, before it recovered yesterday. From yesterday – “While AAPL did go elliptical, it had above average but not huge volume behind the move.”
  • Its starting to look like US is economically recovering. Yesterday’s signs –  GM up 7%+ on earnings, weekly unemployment number lowest in many years

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to -5.26. 50 Day Moving Average at +21.62 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down)  More wiggle room for bulls than bears, but not near any clear technical tops/overbought or bottoms/oversold = NEUTRAL

Investors411 has used this one simple timing indicator to call tops, bottom and “wiggle room” (the space/room US stocks have to wiggle/move higher or lower till they reach a top or bottom) because it has been so successful for over a year.

  • What used to be the European canary in a coal mine is chirping, but a negative trend has started.
  • Italian 10 year bond yield from from at 5.84% (yesterday AM EST) to 5.62% (7:00 AM EST) - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of just a couple weeks back.The 5 days in a row move higher trend was broken.
  • Of course the long term negative here is ECB printing presses are hard at work printing money to drive down bond yields. This is similar to US money printing (quantitative easing)
  • In the very long term this has negative consequences because the world’s banking system no longer runs on capitalism, but extraction. (A subject for many future editorials)

Bottom Line – Investors411 recommends American stocks. There are many areas to consider.

  • The former beaten up sectors are outperforming
  • Usually technology and small caps lead the way when stocks get bullish.
  • Financials are no longer running a capitalist system but running a corrupt extraction program. This sector should do well also.
  • Safest is ETF that mirror the Indexes or Sectors
  • More aggresive investors could use ETF’s that do 2x what major market sectors do.
  • YSL 2012 should outperform.

Bull Rule – Repeat“A 2 % to 5% pullback would be healthy for stocks. Even a flat consolidating stock market.” You don’t want to overheat stocks too rapidly.

Buy The Dip – But, it now looks like the dips are going to be small.

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******************

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 16, 2012

Vampire Squids

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

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Vampire Capitalists

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vampire squid red inside out

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Matt Taibbi’s

quote on Investment Bank Goldman Sachs –

A great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”

However as we’ve seen over the course of the week its not just Goldman, but Republicans, Democrats, all investment banks, lobbyists, plutocrats and a host of wealthy individuals that have turned banking into an industry full of giant vampire squids.

These giant squids are still sucking today.

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vampire squid illustration


The Blood Sucked

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  • The rise and fall of the housing bubble.
  • massive loss in homeowner value
  • Banks collapsing others forced to merge
  • Stock markets around world melting down
  • The Great Recession
  • Massive rise in unemployment
  • Collapse threatened from Insurance (AIG) to Conglomerates (GE) companies
  • Stimulus to help (largest chunk a tax cut) increases deficit
  • “Financial Armageddon” threatened

More

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Dylan Ratigan Chart LINK

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  • Massive Debt
  • Outrageous bank fees
  • Declining Investment
  • Incentive to create debt not value
  • Loss of  finances innovation and product quality
  • Major factor in over leveraging European debt crisis
  • Banksters keep all the profits and bonuses
  • YOU pay for their losses

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Tomorrow – The Cover Up and

Some Solutions

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Republicans

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Rick Santorum

Releases 4 years of Tax returns

Simple question - If Romney and Gingrich are so proud of their wealth why not release 4 years of their returns like Santorum?

Vampire capitalists like to hide in the shadows

Real capitalist are not afraid of how they honestly earn money

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Romney at Bain Capital

Is Romney

a good Businessman?

Three companies are trying to sell a product – In this case the product is a candidate labeled- a Romney, a Santorum and a Gingrich.

  • The Romney company outspends the Santorum company 20 to 1
  • The Romney company outspends the Gingrich company 5 to 1.

The Bottom Line - Santorum is slightly ahead in the polls – Make all the excuses you want, but any business manager with this kind of cash advantage  not able to sell his product by now and obliterate his competition would be hearing these  words

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You’re FIRED

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

  • Mantra -INVESTORS411 has not changed its long term outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.”
  • Therefore - “Anyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher. Our economy either gets better or the Fed has our back”

Shorter Term

  • AAPL the mother of all stocks had a 5% drop off highs (2% loss for day) and this took stocks down with it. While AAPL did go elliptical, it had above average but not huge volume behind the move.
  • From Yesterday Tom Demark is an analyst  that major firms pay 5 figure amounts to use his advise.  Using one of his indicators roughly based on the fact that AAPL has been up 11 of the last 13 days, we should start to see a correction about now.
  • About a decade ago I was taking technical analysis classes at MIT with my friend Harold and I learned about Demark’s 13 day trend exhaustion Indicator. It has worked far more often than not when I have applied it. It sure worked yesterday.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -27.60. 50 Day Moving Average at +22.71 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) Now in a clear falling (bearish) pattern. However, with such a high 50 dma we are near oversold/reversal of trend territory.  But still = NEUTRAL
  • 2 year MO chart This chart shows many reversals in trends  start around -60. Big  meltdowns 10%+ can go to -100 to -140. Since the 50DMA is so high (+23) we start oversold territory at -60 + +23 = -37

Investors411 has used this one simple timing indicator because it has been so successful for over a year.

  • What used to be the European canary in a coal mine is chirping, but a negative trend has started.
  • Italian 10 year bond yield is now at 5.84% - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of just a couple weeks back. But its moved up 5 days in a row. This may be just a technical rebound, but clearly now something to watch especially if  yield goes up at a rapid rate.
  • From Yesterday  - Bottom Line - “An AAPL led technical market correction is very possible. A 2 to 5% correction would be ”healthy” for stocks and a buy the dip opportunity.”
  • A yield approaching 7% would mean European manipulators are loosing control. You can be sure Investors411 will give a shout if the Italian Bond yield gets too high

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Paul’s Corner

A Shot Across The Bow!

Well gang the early shots have been fired across the bow. This bull market may not be over but the signs  point that way. I have linked to two charts of yesterday’s action with the VIX and the TVIX (2x VIX). Down kahuna’s for have been fired and the %B*BW are now up into early warning dangerous territory.

VIX Link

TVIX Link

I’m not going to explain what these charts show as Ian Woodward in his recent video does a great job of explaining. This is an excellent video, and it shows why I follow Ian. He is an excellent teacher. Please watch the video!

Ian’s video explaining these charts

This may be a minor blip in the bull market we have recently enjoyed so be careful, let’s let the market tell us where it is going. At the moment we have been warned, please be careful with any new long trades.

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 15, 2012

Sucking America Dry

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

“Sucking America Dry”

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  • Monday we covered Levittown – How banks and the government worked together to build America.
  • Tuesday we covered how Lobbyists, “free market” bankstas, and politicians conspired to change the banking regulations that had kept America safe
  • Today we’ll cover some more changes the banksta’s and their politicians made and start to go over consequences.

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“The World’s Biggest

Ongoing Heist”


Once the Banksta lobby found they could shatter regulations protecting Americans and the world, they rewrote the way they did business. They created a…

“A secret casino where  the world’s wealthiest companies and individuals bet trillions in other peoples money – OUR money – exempted from laws that the rest of us have to follow.”

___________

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The CDO

Consolidated Debt Obligation

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  • CDO was the first step. A “monster” bond that consolidated bank  debt (think mortgages). An investment bank would come in and buy that debt/bond and give the original bank a big hunk of cash. The original bank, therefore, wouldn’t have to wait agonizingly long for the homeowner to pay off his 30 year mortgage to profit.
  • This is basically a loan on a loan that blossomed from mortgages into everything from credit card to Greek debt.
  • Investment banksters suckered in everyone to take a pice of the action on these new legal bonds. Of course the rating agencies, who are paid by the bankstas  they rate, rated these new bonds AAA (the best)
  • Bankstas sold shares of these “blended” (good and bad credit risk) bonds to unsuspecting clients under the AAA seal of approval.
  • To protect themselves investment bankstas created a market where you could buy “insurance” against defaulting CDO’s. Except it was not called insurance, because insurance was heavily regulated by the government. It was called…

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Credit Default Swaps

Financial WMD’s” – Warren Buffett

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“Now these monster bonds are bet on in an unregulated private market, so no one has the legal right to see how the deals are being done.” In this CDS gambling parlor you can bet for or against each “monster” bond (CDO).

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Greed runs wild


No major Bankster has any reason to worry about making a “credit worthy” loan or even make a loan at all, because that’s all chump change net to the $600,000,000,000,000 CDS market

That’s right $600 trillion over leveraged, private, opaque CDS market. Bankstas and the plutocracy can make massive money just betting on the FAILURE or Success of each monster CDO bonds.

Bankstas privatize the gains

and YOU socialized the losses

But that’s tomorrow’s story


See inspiration for this editorial at bottom of blog’s OVERVIEW Section (list of editorials/books)

Quotes above come from Dylan Ratigan’sGreedy Bastards”

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A Must –

Ratigan’s chart on

Bankstas


LINK

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The Shameless Plutocrats

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Choking Off what’s Left of

Democracy

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What’s Getting trampled in the Dust of billionaires money is your voice in democracy – Paraphrase from Bill Moyer”s editorial

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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  • Some Traders/Investors/analyst were perplexed and amazed at the big rally of lows in the last half hour of trading. YOU should not be
  • MantraINVESTORS411 has not changed its outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.
  • ThereforeAnyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher. Our economy either gets better or the Fed has our back

Notice who is watching who

  • A major victory for Obama, the US economy, and stocks. The deal on extending both the payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefits adds stability and income to the US economy for the rest of the year.
  • AAPL , the mother of all stocks, volume has decreased for 4 straight days. Prices have increased for 8 straight days.
  • Tom Demark is an analyst  that major firms pay 5 figure amounts to use his advise.  Using one of his indicators roughly based on the fact that AAPL has been up 11 of the last 13 days, we should start to see a correction about now.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -15.97. 50 DMA at +22.71 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) With such a high 50 dma we are near oversold territory but still = NEUTRAL

  • What used to be the European canary in a coal mine is chirping loudly and strong because the…
  • Italian 10 year bond is now at 5.65% - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of just a couple weeks back.
  • Bottom Line – An AAPL led technical market correction is very possible. A 2 to 5% correction would be “healthy” for stocks and a buy the dip opportunity. However, in a Central Bank manipulated market we could see equities flatten for a period instead of dip. Long term outlook unchanged.

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********************

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 14, 2012

Bankstas

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

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The Cancer of

Banking Deregulation

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The Cancer of deregulation spread slowly at first as the banking lobby gained more power.

US Banks had a two fold problem

  • Banks were losing business to faster growing emerging market banks because of globalization.  Example Chinese trusted their own banks instead of BOA
  • Digitalization of the stock and bond markets crushed investment banks/brokers who used to cash in on the huge spreads between (1/8 and 1/4) bid and ask prices for securities were now valued in 1/100 or 0.01. They lost their cash cow to computers

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Since the Great Depression, we had kept the banking industry safe by not allowing

traditional banks, insurance companies and Wall Street investment firms to merge.

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That changed in in 1999

The Financial Services Modernization Act

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  • The bank Lobby, with the blessing of the “High Priest of free markets” Fed Chair Alan Greenspan pushed three Republicans legislators – Gramm, Leach & Bliley – to rip apart the safety net that had protected us since the Great Depression.
  • They found a willing friend in the Clinton White House - A banksta- The former head of the Goldman Sachs Robert Rubin and assistant Larry Summers.

Then came the second blow by bank lobbyists in rewriting financial laws

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The Commodities Future Modernization Act.

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  • Again blessed by “High Priest of Free Markets” Alan Greenspan,, Republican Richard Luger and a host of bipartisan co sponsers brought another devastating blow to banking regulations to the White house
  • It was again accepted by the same banksta crew in the treasury and became law.

This bill removed the capital requirements for banks. These requirements had been the incentive for banks to act as police to insure  their loans.

The old system where banks and their customers wanted each other to pay their debts to profit was gone. The new giant “too big to fail” institutions” could actually make money if loans defaulted.


To paraphrase Dylan Ratigan in Greedy Bastards


It is as if  a car dealer no longer had to make a safe reliable car, but could sell you a car that would explode. Then the car dealer would collect on both the money he made on the purchase of the car and the insurance when the car exploded.

Tomorrow  some of the missing details

How they cheat, CDO, Trillion lost, The coverup and more

But if  you want more now at the bottom of the Overview section has an extensive research biography

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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  • From Last Week - Market Fundamentals driving stocks have NOT changed in any dramatic way…a 2 to 5% correction would be healthy…view this as a buying opportunity…still CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.
  • Repeat – “INVESTORS411 has NOT changed its outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.”

  • Biggest beneficiaries of all this money printing seem to be beaten up sectors. XHB (housing ETF) is Investors411 pick, but there are lots of choices from semi conductors to banking.
  • Anyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher.  In the case of something like Italian bonds – the yields pushed lower.
  • AAPL Last night on his show Jim Cramer was beating the drums for Apple saying the stock should have jumped to 550 after its earnings report. Now at 503
  • The mother of all stocks is still exploding higher. What started out as climax selling (big move higher in huge volume) never followed through with a second day up in huge volume. Instead volume has dropped. (Use chart link above to see what real big volume looks like for AAPL – This did NOT materialize Friday or Monday)
  • Nevertheless, almost every technical indicator is screaming oversold.
  • Bottom Line – Technicals show that AAPL did not go through a major climax run, so the fall will not be as sever and there should be some waiting buyers who missed out on the rally that will cushion a fall.

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) rose to +4.82.  50DMA at +22.74 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) With such a high 50 dma we are near oversold territory. = NEUTRAL

  • Repeat - What used to be the European canary in a coal mine is chirping loudly and strong.
  • Italian 10 year bond is now at 5.49% - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of just a couple weeks back.
  • Repeat from last week/yesterday  - “A 2 to 5 % correction would be healthy for the market.” But the canary is chirping

Rally Train

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

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Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 13, 2012

Levittown USA

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

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Levittown

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The Cancer of Banking

Deregulation

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Banking Deregulation has almost brought this country to its knees.


It a leading cause in massive job loss, the 2008 meltdown, lack of trust in our financial system, crony capitalism, wealth inequity, loss in home values and a host of other major economic problems.

As a result of the Great Depression, we regulated banks, but those regulations began to get stripped away in the 1980′s and just about collapsed around the turn of the century.

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What must be said first is

if you don’t allow greed to run wild (unregulated) banking can work.

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Levittown after WW 2 is a perfect example of government working with the private sector and homeowners building America.

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In the 1950′s suburbia was born

  • Levitt & Son adapted high speed, low cost home building techniques, but lacked the financing to rapidly expand.
  • The Federal Housing Authority stepped in and gave builders the cash flow they needed and insured significant amounts of each credit worthy 30 year home mortgage.
  • This regulated system worked.
  • Our regulated banking system, because it was in their self interest not to foreclose, acted with integrity as kind of a cop making sure buyers could repay their loans.

How the System Broke down

as the Cancer of Deregulation Spreads

Tomorrow

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Republicans


Two most Significant Questions

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  • How can Santorum who has raised 1/20th the money Romney has, still be challanging him?
  • If Gingrich or Santorum steps aside most of those votes go to the other candidate.  Would this would make a new favorite?

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STOCKS

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Wall Street Bull & OWS Symbol

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  • From Friday – Market Fundamentals driving stocks have NOT changed in any dramatic way…a 2 to 5% correction would be healthy…view this as a buying opportunity…still CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.
  • INVESTORS411 has not changed its outlook, because this is a manipulated market. Our Central bank  has backed American banks since 2009 and the European Central Banks is now backing their Banks in the same way – by basically printing money and holding interest rates near zero.

  • This is the stock section of Investors411, so the evaluation of what manipulating central banks are doing (protecting too big to fail banks and running crony capitalism) is NOT relevant to stock prices.
  • Anyone who wants a return on their $ greater than near 0% is pushed into assets that the ECB and Fed is manipulating higher.
  • This also makes traditional technical analysis far less relevant.
  • In Fact, “mutual funds, are hemorrhaging assets,” Most mom and pop investors have long since  left the building. Eric Parnell at Seeking Alpha has the same answer  to why stocks are going up  - The Fed
  • NB – Its one big globalized market out there and if the ECB manipulates the Euro debt crisis the USA can benefit. Just like the rest of the world benefited by our Fed stabalizing/manipulating the US markets.
  • So from riots in Athens to a brutal dictator cracking down in (not an oil rich country) Syria, global stock prices are unaffected. It’s all about protecting the banks

—————-

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McCellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -17.82.  50DMA at +22.55 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog) With such a high 50 dma we are near oversold territory. = NEUTRAL

  • What used to be the European canary in a coal mine is chirping loudly and strong.
  • Italian 10 year bond is now at 5.49% - No where near the danger zone of 7.0% of just a couple weeks back.
  • Repeat from last week  - “A 2 to 5 % correction would be healthy for the market.” But the canary is chirping.

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*****************

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Paul’s Corner

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The VIX, TVIX and Woody Have Spoken!

For those of you who read my comments posted Friday evening and watched Ian Woodward’s video you will understand, we had a big kahuna .42 move up in the VIX Friday. This indicates the market is pulling back. It was a big move and something to pay attention to. %B*BW turned yellow from green. Caution is suggested with any new long positions!

The following chart image shows the movement of the TVIX (the 2X VIX) this past week and definitely a shot across the bow.

TVIX with Woody Indicator Chart

Ian posted a new blog Friday evening discussing the moves in the VIX. His Woody Indicator (%B*BW) is very fast and definitely calls out the direction of the market.

IAN’s BLOG LINK

BTW if you took the HGSI & EdgeRater course and tried out programs you will get a very nice price if you subscribe/buy the programs before Feb 17.

Valentine’s Day tomorrow, don’t forget your significant other!

Your Stock List 2012

TRADERS

AKRX – continues its nice ride up the 17. Buyable on any minor dip, reports Feb 28 BMO, Up 4.5% Friday after being added to the S&P Small Cap 600 index! AKRX has almost given us a double since added to YSL last year. Who says you need to buy a $300 stock to make money? Current short term target by using the Ian Woodward High jump method is low 13.38, middle 13.50 or a high of 13.86. These numbers should be considered short term targets before a pause and refresh.

CMG – nice snap back Friday after its earnings report a week ago, was a great buy the dip opportunity. Riding up the 9 dma. On a very nice chart.

DLTR – good chart action, buyable with any dip, reports Feb 22,  Kahuna last Thursday

ENB – decent chart action, pulled back Friday and bounced off the 9, may be in a buy the dip position.    extended, unknown earnings date

FAST – enjoying great chart action along with the home builders, extended, buyable in a dip

IBM – Yawn, at the top of its current trading range

KLAC  – cut down through the 17 this past week and now sits below the 50. Maybe in the buy the dip position.

LEN – good chart action, above the 17, slightly extended, big Kahuna and little Kahuna past to weeks.

MA – up to 52 week high this past week on earnings, buyable on a normal pull back, extended

MNST – looks to be in a short basing period, above the 17 and buyable with any small dip or with volume drying up, reports 2/23

RYL – enjoying the home building move, great chart action, above the 17 and the 9

TSCO – Reported previous week and handily beat estimates but lowered guidance for 2012. Sitting on the 17 and the chart is basing.

WATCHERS

BKI – pulled back after recent earnings report. Sitting below the 50, not buyable until it crosses up through the 50, all HGSI indicators are red

CATM – sitting below the 50, needs to cross up through the 50 before a buy, may be added back to Traders

FTK – pulled back with the natural gas stocks, below the 50

KOG – Below the 50, most HGSI indicators red, almost ready for the big green dumpster

SIMO – Reported a week ago with great results, but suffered a 5 point move during the day, finished in the upper third of the daily candle, which is good, but slid off the cliff all week. All HGI indicators are red, not tradable at the moment except maybe as a short if the whole market continues a pull back. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!

SWI – Big run up this past week after cup and handle base, extended at the moment, watch! This is an old YSL member and may be moved up to trading status shortly. Its group is moving.


DUMPSTERS

SIMO is almost here!

As always please make your own trading decisions.  Reporting dates are approximate! All comments above are based on chart action and if you think I can read the charts, I have a bridge I can get you a great deal on!

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********************

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Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Still

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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February 10, 2012

Et Tu Barack

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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Et Tu Barack

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Pac Man


This week Obama confirmed he’s part of the Oligarchy that is tearing American democracy apart and transferring trillions of dollars of wealth from the vast majority of Americans into a kleptocratic American aristocracy.

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Obama Endorsed

Super PACs This Weeks

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Some of the best editorial

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There are a few rays of  democracy/sunshine

left in America’s political system

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Elizabeth Warren (D) and Scott Brown (R) in Massachusetts have agreed NOT to allow Super PAC money in their campaigns.

Warren and Brown’s Pledge May Not Hold up, but

Lots  of us will keep up its fight for Democracy.

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STOCKS

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  • Market Fundamentals driving stocks have NOT changed in any dramatic way. Of course, they can in the future.
  • A “healthy” 2 to 5% technical correction seems like it could happen.  Paul pointed yesterday to AAPL  (overextended/climax selling) as a probable cause for a technical correction.
  • Right now I view this as a buying opportunity.
  • Still CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Barr

Paul’s Corner


Hit the top?

I learned from my good friend Ian Woodward (HGSI) a long time ago to let the market tell you which way the market is going rather than  guessing. Each evening I take a quick look at the market to see if we have any signals as to which way the market is heading.  After the close yesterday, HGSI gave us the first update of the evening about 5:30 ET and within a minute or two I knew where the market went and the possible direction it is going. Here are a few of the notes I scribbled down on my note pad.

VIX up 2.6% today, Russell small caps off while Naz 100 up, Consumer Staples top of the list today, looks like flight to quality. MO on the S&P 1500 fell to near zero. No major damage to YSL. Stay away from SIMO! All HGSI Indicators for SIMO are red!

So it appears the money is heading for security. Pre market futures are down and the rest of the world has been trading off over night. The last few days the markets have struggled to finish positive and many high flying stocks closed off with profit takers emptying the till near the close. So will we trade down or up today? Um ask Barr I don’t know, but I will be ready to protect my profits. Buying new long positions at the time takes some real guts which I don’t have!

As I have mentioned several times, HGSI and EdgeRater are giving a great video class series on using the two products for superb market analysis.

Ian Woodward gave an excellent 45 minute presentation this week on how he analyzes which way the market is going by following %B and his new proprietary “Woody” indicator. This video is classic Ian and he gives you the whole basket of what to look for in the market and how. A long time market guru, one of the sharpest folks I know and a great teacher, here is the link to his video:

IAN WOODWARD VIDEO

This video class series is still going on and available for you to participate. While taking the classes you get free use of HGSI and EdgeRater software.  If you are serious about developing your investing skills, this is one class you need to take, and for crying out loud, IT’S FREE!

HGSI Course Register:

My favorite high demand stock search produced the following results for Thursday Feb. 09,

HIGH DEMAND  LINK

As always please make your own trading decisions. All comments above are based on chart action and if you think I can read the charts, I have a bridge I can get you a great deal on!


_____________

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.



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