Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
April 30, 2012

A Big Wet Kiss

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

A Big Wet Kiss


BFF – The Love Grows

.

.

China Totalitarian Regime

&

America’s Corporate Plutocrats

.

_______

.

Two behemoths are moving so close together

its hard to tell them apart

.

.

APPL’s embraces China

.

Last week 411 went over GE who pays a net -18.9% corporate tax rate to the USA and a +25% tax rate to a totalitarian regime in China.all

APPL is no different than the other globalized companies that help to contribute to their above  and below the table  support of the communist dictatorship in China.

.

  • Apple’s record profits in its earnings report come from China
  • AAPL like hundreds of globalized American companies pay a 25% Chinese corporate tax,
  • millions of workers  who owe their jobs to American Corporations pay up to a 45% China tax
  • All imported American products are taxed at 25% vs a 2.5% tax on Chinese goods coming to America
  • All this goes to the
    Totalitarian Chinese communist state
    and their military machine
    .
    China’s Latest Stealth Bomber
    .
    .
    _________________
    .
    Across the big Pond

    In the USA
    .
    Sheldon Adelson
    .
    Sheldon Adelson
    (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)
    .
    Macau (China) Gambling magnet  Sheldon Adelson has already has already contributed more money to an American Presidential campaign than any other person in history – At least $35 million.
    .
    Now, because of our plutocrat
    .
    loving

    Supreme Court

    Adelson right wing contributions

    will be


    .
    While we all applaud
    our latest product
    .

.

NB – Investors411 believes in  capitalism that has some order and social responsibility. Not the greed based “free market” casino extraction systems that are gaining control of the world’s economies.


This blog is written on an

Apple Macintosh Computer

&

AAPL is on “YOUR Stock List”

So this editorial is also self criticism

.

Please recognize,

that OUR short term

GREED

has long term

consequences

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

Trends

.

  • Earning Result are usually better than expected. This time a lot better. Growth in China often cited as a major factor.
  • Europe – Major trend is many European economies are rejecting sever austerity measures.  Short term stocks may suffer
  • Spanish 10 year Bond Rates [411 uses this as a critical measurement of European/world stock market stability] have stabilized over last three weeks just under 6% danger zone.
  • McCellan Oscillator [411 very successful technical tool in market direction - Tops/bottoms] is nearing overbought territory

.

____________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

..

Technically  - Obvious short term momentum with bulls, but another rally day will bring is into mildly overbought territory. Stock moving higher need two factors. The fact that socialists should win May 6th elections in France should be already factored into stocks.

  • Europe’s canary in the coal mine, Spanish bonds need to stay below 6%. A strong resistance level has been established.
  • Our Fed’s “Operation Twist” ends in June. Traders/Investors/Manipulators need to see that they will continue liquidity dump.
  • Short term bulls will soon get an overbought correction soon if rally continues. Longer term below

As long as the Spanish canary doesn’t chip we’re looking decent for May. If there is no signs of further Fed liquidity, then the old late spring/summer meltdown will probably repeat itself.


.

*************************

.

PAUL’S Corner

.

.

Announcing Brand New

YOUR Stock List

.

.

Your Stock List

.

Here you  go folks, the latest stock list selected by Investors 411 readers! The list includes many of your favorite and well known stocks.

Please keep in mind, its earnings season and some of these stocks haven’t reported yet. It’s your responsibility to find out when your stock reports and the earnings estimate. (That’s not my job!)

There were quite a few great suggestions, but we tended to select stocks that had more votes. This list is entirely made up from your suggestions.

Many of these stocks are currently extended and you should wait for a pull back before a buy.

____________

..

AMZN – Amazon.com, Inc. operates as an online retailer in North America and internationally. It operates retail Websites, such as amazon.com and amazon.ca.

AAPL – Apple Inc., together with subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices.

DDD – 3D Systems Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and servicing of 3D printers and related products, print materials, and services.

KO – The Coca-Cola Company, a beverage company, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of nonalcoholic beverages worldwide.

DLTR – Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise at the fixed price of $1.00.

EBAY - eBay Inc. provides online platforms, services, and tools to help individuals and merchants in online and mobile commerce and payments in the United States and internationally

HD – The Home Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a home improvement retailer.

IMAX – IMAX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment technology company specializing in motion picture technologies and presentations worldwide.

IBM – International Business Machines Corporation provides information technology (IT) products and services worldwide.

LEN - Lennar Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in homebuilding, financial services, and real estate businesses in the United States.

MNST – Monster Beverage Corporation is a marketer and distributor of energy drinks and alternative beverages.

PCLN – priceline.com Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online travel company.

SBUX – Starbucks Corporation purchases and roasts whole bean coffees. It operates 6,705 company-operated stores and 4,082 licensed stores in the United States

TSCO – Tractor Supply Company is a specialty retailer which supplies the daily farming and maintenance needs of its target customers: hobby, part-time and full-time farmers and ranchers, as well as rural customers, contractors and tradesmen

URI – United Rentals, Inc. is one of North America’s largest equipment rental companies with over branches in the majority of states, several Canadian provinces and Mexico.

__________

Disclaimer – Buy or trade at your own risk. Any comments made now or in the future about these stocks are for education only. At time of writing I do not own ANY of the stocks listed.

[Editor's Note. Thanks! - YSL Only works because YOU send in a short list of your favorite stock. Look for a discussion of them in the comments section of blog every day]

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond yield over 6% =  NEUTRAL

Under 6% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 27, 2012

The Primal Scream

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

.

History will Repeat Itself

Unless we learn from it

.

Austerity in a weak Economy

is Devastating-

.

Japan

.

.

Almost two decades ago Japan’s rising economy was the envy of the world

Then, they went into recession and introduced austerity measures.

The end result was a stagnant Japanese economy with a Debt to GDP ratio of well over 200%

.

Yale’ Economist

Robert Schiller

(pg. 84 Money magazine)

.

“Fiscal austerity to reduce debt can backfire -as has been the case in debt laden Japan.”

.

Aside – How does Japan manage an ugly Debt to GDP ratio well over twice ours? Low Low Low Treasury bond rates.  We do the same with our Low Rates. Their rate for the 10 year bond is under 1%, ours under 2%

.

__________

.

England Hits Recession

Another Austerity Mistake

.

.

Headline Daily Mail

.

“The first double dip for 37 years…

Britain endures

longest downturn for a century”

..

Now besides Europe waking up to the fact,  austerity doesn’t work we have England as the latest example.

Even countries like Spain and Ireland who had budget surpluses before the 2008 meltdown are now in deep trouble after introducing austerity measures. (See STOCK Section below on downgrade of Spanish bonds)

.

____________

.

.

The Primal Scream


.

Investors411 is just one small blog

that’s been right about

this again and again and again

..

“Of course we must eventually deal with the deficit.  But the example of Britain and Europe show that austerity in the midst of a jobs crisis is a form of insanity.

.

It ultimately makes deficits worse and leads to economic stagnation and double dip recessions.”

.

Quote from Must Read

Editorial

by John Atcheson

.

“Splitting the Difference Between Myth

.

and Reality Is Not Good Economics

.

Told You So -

The UK’s Double Dip Recession and Ours”


*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

  • Spanish Bonds rose SIGNIFICANTLY this AM near 6.00% danger zone. Rate at at 5.96% at 6:45 AM EDT Latest update on Spanish bond rates for traders HERE
  • Despite austerity Program in Spain Spanish Bonds were downgraded two levels Story Here
  • Two trends – Bad news – US economy keeps deteriorating at a slight rate. Good News - Earnings report are outstanding for US companies.

.

Reading Tea Leaves

.

.

Simply Put – The massive gains in stocks over the last three years is NOT trickling down into the US economy in a Significant way. The rich are getting richer as working middle class Americans stagnate.

Any stock move significantly higher is predicated on the Fed continuing some kind of liquidity dump. The latest liquidity injection “Operation Twist” ends in June.

.

************************

.

Your Stock List

.

.

Today’s the last day to submit your favorite stocks

to be on YOUR stock List starting May 1st.

.

List your choices in the comments section

or email them to me.

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond over 6% = Change to NEUTRAL

These bonds are now back below 6% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Getting Shaky again

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 25, 2012

Austerity or Growth

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

.

It’s Official

Keynes & Krugman

are Right

.

Prize Award Ceremony

.

At least for the Dutch

French and most of Europe

.

Keynes and Krugman are two Nobel Prize winning Economists who believe you stimulate your way out of a recession. Austerity plunges you deeper into the recession.


After several years of austerity right wingers in France and Holland (yesterday’s elections), plus many more got the message.

From Yahoo Finance

the money quote

.

“The “austerity” idea, you’ll remember, was that the continent’s huge debt and deficit problem had ushered in a “crisis of confidence” and that, once business-people saw that governments were serious about debt reduction, they’d get confident and start spending again.”

.

“That hasn’t worked.”

.

____________

.

The Obama

Economic Triumph

.


Facing Financial Armageddon,

a -8.9% GDP rate & the losses of Almost -800,000 a month

Obama took offic in Jan 2008.

.

By the end of 2010 GDP had soared to between +2% and+3%

and job growth had turned positive up to +250k a month


.

Quarter-to-Quarter Growth in Real GDP

In 2010 the uncompromising

Tea Party Republicans took over,

the Obama Stimulus Ran out, and

therefore, growth came to a halt.

.

  • Moving from a -9% GDP to a +2/3% GDP is real Change You can Believe in
  • Moving From a -800,00 jobs a month to +200,000 jobs is real Change you can Believe in.

.

Please show me another President

who has taken GDP from -9% to +2/3%

.

The problem

.

We have a big deficit, Europe already shown austerity leads to another recession, Japan got clobbered, China’s GDP is shrinking and Apple’s huge earnings success yesterday just leads to more Chinese jobs.

European voters have realized that just austerity doesn’t work.

.

So should you.

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.


  • APPL had one of those OMG earnings report.  Sales were so so in the USA, but in China they were spectacular.
  • Spanish Bonds have fallen for the last two days and are SIGNIFICANTLY  below the 6.00% danger zone at 5.79%. Latest update for traders HERE
  • NB -Apple’s earnings are a reflection of their business doing spectacular in China and not in the USA – Reuters story

.

Reading Tea Leaves

.

.

Kudos to Monitor (long term Apple holder) who a full day before the earnings report suggested AAPL return to YOUR Stock List.  Apple should lead tech and the S&P, but obviously don’t expect results like last quarter. There will be a group of investors/traders who will again buy the first dip.

Longer term – The Cavalry sure looks like its come to the rescue in Spain. Friends of the FED and ECB are keeping Spanish bonds below the danger Zone.


.

*************************

.

PAUL’S Corner

.

.

Your Stock List

.


.

April is almost over

Now is your chance to get your favorite stock

added to Your Stock List!

.

Effective April 30 all current YSL members are being removed.

On May 1 we will announce  the new list

.

List YOUR top stocks in the comments section or email them to Barr ASAP.

The only requirement is that a stock trades at least $5,000,000 dollars a day. Example –  Stock XYZ is worth $10 and trades 500,000 shares a day. This way we eliminate stocks that are not liquid and subject to more manipulation.

If you like defend your stock in a sentence or two.

From YOUR selections Barr & I will try to to come up with a list of 10 to 15 stocks that again will beat the S&P 500. These stocks will be tracked throughout the month. Entry and exit points will be suggested.

.

As most of you know

This process has worked!

ONLY because of

YOUR  participation.


Of the 8 stock Lists only one

has failed to beat the S&P 500

.

Group performance results for the month of April will be listed Tuesday morning.


.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond over 6% = Change to NEUTRAL

These bonds are now back below 6% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 23, 2012

Greed Eats Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

..

Greed Eats Democracy


.

It Been 23 Years Since China

Massacred Democracy

At Tiananmen Square

.

________________

.

Whose Money Is Nurturing

One Party Communist State?

.

.

Greedy

Oligarchs Love Dictators

and

Hate Democracy

.

A given – Outsourcing – Where US companies send million of jobs overseas because of cheaper labor costs.

  • USAGE was supposed to pay a 35% tax on its $5.1 billion in US profits. Their lobbyists almost own our politicians so instead of paying taxes they have a $3.2 billion tax credit.
  • CHINA – GE pays a full 25% corporate tax in China. Add to that China is the rated second worst country for bribes. We all know major US conglomerates bribe politicians

.

Is GE Alone

Hell NO

.

Hundreds of Major US Companies

Feed the Totalitarian

One Party Chinese State

.

FAIRNESS

.

.

US Corporations give in to the

Chinese Dictatorship

who, with their help, will soon

rule the world

.

Why can’t they pay

more of their fair share here?

.

Choose

.

GREED or DEMOCRACY

..

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

France/ the Dutch

Austerity or Taxes?

Dragging Stocks DOWN

.

  • Major European markets are down early (6:00 AM EDT - 1.67% to 2.67% ) on news from France, Netherlands and a Spanish Bond Rate over 6.00%. [Check out Link for latest]
  • Elections in France went badly for Sarkozy (center right). Winner – Hollande (center left). Better than expected – Anti Immigration/Euro – (far right) Most see Hollande winning the May 6th run off between him and Sarkozy – BBC report
  • FYI – Hollande wants to consider raising the top tax rate to 75% in France instead of making more and larger spending cuts. Contrast with Obama’s rise to 30% (Buffett Rule)

.

For Investors/Traders

How to Play Europe’s

Political/Economic Problems

.

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

The USA currently has the most positive outlook of all the major economies.

.

We are being dragged down by Japan (natural disaster), and Europe. Hard to call what’s happening in China – but hard to imagine 8 to 9% GDP growth continue.

Our top technical indicator –  McClellan Oscillator is at -8.22. Lots of room till we get to oversold or overbought = NEUTRAL

..

  • From Friday – Holding a full boat of long positions is problematic until another liquidity dump by Central Banks.”
  • From Friday -“ Short term play - Short - France, BNP and related banks may have some more short term downside them.” Those of you who shorted the rally in BNP and related banks should get rewarded today. This, also may turn into a position that could last through France’s May 6th election and beyond.
  • Reality – What is a short term negative for stocks is NOT bad for long term economics. If you impose too much austerity, the unemployment rate skyrockets, creating fewer taxpayers and more in need of welfare of incarceration.

  • From Friday – High risk trade – If APPL keeps going down, I may purchase some before earnings or in a dip after earnings.” Still an option. Reasoning – Hopefully AAPL will drop to a technical support level [See Paul's comments] That, and the fact that an earnings miss seems to be getting baked into its Tuesday earnings reports, puts the odds (especially for traders) in your favor.

.

*************************

.

PAUL’S Corner

.

.

Looking at the futures, it appears it’s going to be a down day. French elections show France is about to come to its senses and toss out the austerity regime. It looks like the great unwashed really don’t like what they see in the banksta controlled Europe.

Dr Jeffrey Scott, an HGSI user, last night hosted a great Sunday evening webinar (which I posted a link to Friday and Saturday in the comments section). Great review of the condition of the market and an excellent AAPL chart review. I trust some of you folks caught the webinar.

I posted the following chart review of Your Stock List Saturday for you weekend stock addicts, in case you slept in here is a repeat.

NOTE: at the start of each month we review Your Stock List for additions and deletions, kindly make any suggestions that you might have for the list via email to Barr.

.

TRADERS

.

CMG – Broke the 17 Friday after it’s earnings release was not well received, buy the dip? See comment:

DLTR – great chart, continues toward the BIG dollar in the sky!  Slightly extended. Using the Ian Woodward/HGSI proprietary “High Jump Indicator” I estimate  DLTR will be an “extended stock” in the area of 101 to 106. at which point you’ll probably will get a pull back or basing.

ENB – 52 week high,

FAST – broke down through the 50, HGSI indicators are red

FL – basing, on the 17

HD – excellent tight chart, buy any dip market conditions permitting

IBM – looks like a bit of profit taking from the old dog. ALL HGSI indicators are red, below the 50.

IMAX – HGSI indicators have turned red, two red/down Kahuna’s the past few days, sitting below lower Bollinger Band, needs to cross up through the middle BB (25.74) before a buy is “safe”.  ** Previous comment from beginning of the month remains, middle of BB is now 23.80.

KLAC – basing on the 17

LEN – great earnings report, gapped up yesterday, buy any pull back. ** Previous comment from beginning of the month, LEN promptly broke down with the market and now sitting on the 50, if it holds above the 50 may be buyable IF housing reports start to improve.

MA – tight chart, buy any dip, buy any dip market conditions permitting

MNST – what a monster of a chart, buy any dip! ** Previous comment from beginning of month remains!

SWI – basing on the 50 & 17, free parking as they say!

TSCO – nice tight chart, buy any dip, buy any dip market conditions permitting

URI – nice $4 pop on earnings release.

WATCHERS

.

AKRX – sitting  below the 50 and crossed up through the 17 Friday, basing, HGSI indicators turning green.

BKI – woof!

KOG – below the 50, below the 17

RYL – sitting below the 50 and the 17, LEN has a better chart and that chart isn’t much better.

DUMPSTERS


SIMO – gapped up on a story of AAPL semi chips being in short supply

CATM – woof, woof, woof!

FTK – buy at your own risk.

Disclaimer - all comments for education only, buy or trade at your own risk. At time of writing I don’t own any of the stocks listed and have been 100% in cash for the past 3 weeks.

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond over 6% = Changed to NEUTRAL

.

This has happened.

Add To This

Continued Meltdown in

European Markets.

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.


NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 20, 2012

Bad Credit/Easy Loan

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

.

Bad Credit/Easy Loan

.

.

Investors411 Readers Report

It’s Easy To get A Loan.*

.

.

Banksta

.

You Know the Story

Greedy Unregulated Banks

invent Casino Extraction System

(See blog posts Feb 12th through 29th)

Almost Bring Down Financial System

by over leveraging and bad loans

.

Paul Volcker

.

.

The Volcker Rule, NOT to return to

the regulated capitalism that

worked for 60+ years, but to more

mildly regulate banksters is getting

delayed & picked apart by banksters

and the right wing

.

.

Is the Banksta agent

with a huge Pinky Ring Back

Just 3+ Short Years After the

Meltdown?

.

  • Capital One & GM Financial are making “loans to those with “less-than-flawed-credit.” (NYT)
  • Equifax reports 1.1 million new credit cards in December to borrowers with damaged credit
  • HSBC and JPM/Chase are back in sub-prime (NYT)


Annette Alejandro is happy sorting though the the piles of credit card offers she has. She’s unemployed, had her car repossessed, and is fresh out of bankruptcy (NYT)

.

They’re Back

,

.

Why should Banks practice Capitalism?

Why should the seek out only the best clients,

When massive profits come from bundling loans

& selling them in the unregulated, over leveraged

$600 trillion casino or derivatives market?

.

_____________

.

*I certainly don’t want to imply any of you have bad credit

Inspiration and some data came from this weeks Brookline TAB editorial

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

France and Eurogeddon?

.

  • Investors411 Readers understand that the reason banksters gave loans to so many troubled countries is the had the unregulated, over leveraged massive casino/derivatives market to back them up.
  • Now just like in the USA. Too Big To Fail Banks and Countries are threatened.
  • Will gains be privatized by the banks and risk socialized by the voters of each country?
  • First Round French Election Sunday and polls say (pro bankster, pro more austerity) Sarkozy is behind
  • Potential Eurogeddon? - This stock chart of France’s largest bank BNP shows a 30+% drop in a month and a -4.86% drop yesterday

.

Sure looks like

some sort of PANIC

in a French

“Too Big To Fail ” bank

.

___________

.

The Pain in Spain

Gets Worse

.

.

.

  • The Problems in France are negatively Impacting Spanish bond yields.
  • Despite, a successful over hyped auction of Spanish bonds yesterday the rates this AM got over the critical 6%.
  • Spanish 10 year Bond Rates currently at 5.94% at 6:50 EDT.

.

For Investors/Traders

How to Play Europe’s

Political/Economic Problems

.

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

  • Here’s the view of PIMCO’s #2 Mohamed EL Erian on same subject.
  • The reoccurring cycle of Central Bank Liquidity coming to the rescue will happen but when?
  • Holding a full boat of long positions is problematic until another liquidity dump by Central Banks.
  • Short term play – Short - France, BNP and related banks may have some more short term downside them

______________


  • AAPL earnings report on Tuesday is the big news this side of the pond. Looks like traders are expecting less than the usual stellar results.
  • High risk trade – If APPL keeps going down, I may purchase some before earnings or in a dip after earnings.

.

*************************

.

PAUL’S Corner

.

.

A bucket of what?

,

Many times we have discussed using the Bollinger Band to evaluate a stock and a major stock index. It’s one of my favorite tools and one that’s constantly suggested by my good friend Ian Woodward (HGSI).

One of our fellow HGSI users, Dave Steckler posted a great blog last evening briefly explaining Ian’s Bucketology.

Enjoy:  LINK

As you all know, I reply on HGSI for stock selection and searching. I’m pretty good at top down searching and reading the charts to find what I’m comfortable with spending my wife’s money on.

But if you are a wee bit lazy, HGSI has some very good searches that are handed to you each evening with some excellent stocks.  One of my favorites is “The Best of Woodward and Brown”. Here are last evening selections from this search:

ALLT, ACAT, MPEL, MODL, NQ, PII, SCSS, SXCI, TPX, URI

Pretty good looking stocks handed to you and a down day in the market!

My usual worthless disclaimer applies

blah blah blah blah

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond over 6% = Change to NEUTRAL (LTO)

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

A Very Shaky

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH


AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.




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April 18, 2012

A Photo and Spain

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

.

Investors411 is [Mostly]

Taking a Break Today

But…

.

.

From Stock tips to political Debate

The Comment Section is Open and

.

.

This photo taken yesterday at

Fenway Park in Boston and

.

Tax Dodgers at Fenway Park

.

View Full Size Photo HERE

.

_____________

.

.

Spanish 10 Year Bond Rates

.

The current #1 factor influencing US and world wide stock prices is how close Spanish Bonds prices are to 6.00%. This level has become a potent resistance level.

As of  7:21 EDT Spanish 10 years fell further to 5.80%. (Day/swing Traders – check out SB 10 year price if you want to trade on the expected poor opening – based on some less than stellar tech company earnings reports) There is some kind of major bond auction in Spain Thursday.

Longer Term – It must also be noted the the US 10 year bond is very low – This forces $ into stocks.

.

Same Outlook as yesterday

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 17, 2012

Cheaters

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Why fighting for

Openness, Accountability

and Honesty

is the Good Fight

Biggest business scandals of all time

..

Charles Ponzi

Corruption in Business

What Does It Cost?

.

Very occasionally the crimes of the plutocracy become so transparent that despite all their lawyers and lobbyists they are caught

.

A Rouges Gallery

.

Biggest business scandals of all time

.

Charles Keating

.

Keating’s  Savings and Loan debacle of the 1980′s. His company went from +781 million to -4.6 billion in one year. 5 Senators took $300,000 from Keating. By 1989 the estimated cost of the Keating scandal had reached $500 billion.

(Source Wikipedia – my guesstimate that about $2 trillion in today’s dollars.)

.

Due to time considerations and the get a life factor -

I’m just going to list a few infamous plutocrats


.

Biggest business scandals of all time

.

Ivan Boesky

Inspiration for Gordon Gekko movie

.

Biggest business scandals of all time

..

Bernard Ebbers

World Com

.

Biggest business scandals of all time

.

Dennis Koslowski

TYCO

.

Business scandals

.

Richard Scrushy

Health South Corp.

.

Biggest business scandals of all time

.

Ken Lay & Jeff Skilling

Enron

Most Plutocrats are NOT Caught

If They are, They Don’t Go to Jail

.

Here a Long List from Wikipedia of more Scandals. Do Your own research you can find hundreds more.

______

.

Legalized Theft

Banksta deregulation &

The 2008 Financial Meltdown

.

.

What Investors411 supports is

Openness

Accountability

&

Honesty

.

Right Wing’s Response

Declare War On

.

.

Welfare Mothers

Who Cheat the System

.

_____________

.

Who is the bigger cheat or

threat to

.

  • a meltdown in the Financial System.
  • A devaluation of your home price
  • Costing you a job
  • Adding to the deficit.
  • Cheating your stock investment
  • Bringing on a recession/depression
  • Taking your Democracy.

The Welfare mom

or the Plutocrats?

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

..

Sorry, Limited time this AM.

.

  • Spanish bonds  DOWN significantly (2.72%) to 5.905 at 8:30 EST. = Bullish
  • GS had better than expected earnings report and raised dividend
  • Biggest news is AAPL’s earnings report next Tuesday

******************

For foreseeable short term future – As long as the Spanish 10 year bond rate is above 6.00% and growing, the outlook will remain NEUTRAL.

Below 6.00% Outlook CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH.

,

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

A Shaky

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.







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April 16, 2012

Spain/Pain

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,
.
.
First thing to look at this AM and every AM is Spanish (and Italian) 10 year Bond Prices
.
At 6:00AM EST
Spanish bonds are ABOVE 6.00%
.
Bad News
.
.
up 2.41%
.
to 6.12%
_______

Latest price before publication at 8:00
.
Better News

Spanish Bond Prices Falling
Moving in Right Direction
.
6.08%
.
At 9:20 EST Spanish Bonds back below 6%
Even Better
.
5.99%


.
********************
********************
,

STOCKS

.

.

Our major Problem is

We no Longer Practice Capitalism in most of

The Financial Sector

See Feb. 13 through 29th Blog Posts

.

But instead run

A globalized interconnected extraction system –

an unregulated, over leveraged casino

or

a $600 trillion dollar derivatives market.

..

.

Friday we saw the first signs of

PANIC

as investors remembered the 2008 Meltdown

“Deja vu all over again”

.

_________

.

The Same Old Story

.

Just like in the years preceding 2008 banksters lent out money to  mortgage customers that were poor risks. They did the same in Europe to countries. Banksters, thought they were protected, because the bundled and sold debt on a massive opaque, unregulated, derivatives market.

In 2008 they were not protected as Lehman collapse, was the last straw, in a   systemic worldwide credit meltdown.

Friday was a Disaster for

.

.

FINANCIALS

.

Nobody really knows how far over leveraged these globalized interconnected giants are to the now troubled Euro bond market in Spain and Italy.

.

Therefore Bankstas got toasted

.

  • DB - Germany’s largest TBTF lost 4.65%
  • BNP – Frances’s largest TBTF lost 6.24%
  • BAC – USA’s largest TBTF lost 5.34%

Others TBTF’s

got toasted too

.

See Sunday’s comments for more.

______________.

.

Reading Tea Leaves

.

.

You’d think Central Banks would do everything possible to drive down Spanish bond yields early today.

We’ll See.

7.00% is the generally acceptable figure that a meltdown could occur. We got over those levels late last year several times, but it looked like we were out of the woods as rates fell below 5.00%.

Obviously, we are not at 7.00% yet. But the steady 6 week rally to the high of the year has spooked bankstas and their investors across the world.

It is simply beyond me to predict when, where, how or if, Central Banks will intervene. They have done so in the past – Investors411 refers to this as the cavalry coming to the rescue.

FYI – Bankstas are going to spin they are afraid of regulations. Therefore they got toasted. It could be that regulators have forced them to stop over leveraging so profits are less – but I doubt it.

.

Above Expectations Earnings could mute some of the Panic over rising bond prices.

.

***********************


PAUL’s Corner

.

..

I spent the weekend driving fence posts in the garden instead of my usual leisurely tour of the markets. I did however get a few minutes to look at the charts using HGSI and EdgeRater and was about to copy some of the charts for today’s Paul’s Corner when I checked my fried Stephen Gerritz’s blog and I see Steve did all of the work for me. I posted a link to Steve’s blog in a Paul’s Corner Extra in the comments section Saturday afternoon.

Stephen Gerritz Blog Link:

Pretty good market analysis and with just 6 charts! That’s all you need for market analysis you ask? Eh, pretty much. If you hadn’t noticed, I pretty much rely on what the charts tell us and leave the nuts and bolts of the market for Barr to sort out.

So what do those charts tell us? Take a look at the 5th chart down on Steve’s blog, the Woody Indicator Chart.

Image Link:

The Woody Indicator is a proprietary indicator created by Ian Woodward from HGSI. Using this indicator to look at the VIX (The Volatility Index) we can see it is currently up in the “Run For The Hills” zone. The Woody Indicator is suggesting extreme caution in the market at this time.

I see Steve added a Blog Addendum 04 14 2012 Sunday afternoon where he provided a link to Fred Richard’s latest newsletter. Take a few minutes and read Fred’s comments particularly his AAPL comments:

“Apple represents about 20% of the total NASDAQ valuation. Unfortunately, it just broke its 20-day moving average for the first time since mid-December 2011.According to the latest data from MarketSmith™, 130 funds closed out their positions in Apple. Perhaps, investors should be increasingly nervous about the direction of a market that only moves up on low volume.”

So while the great unwashed were merrily chasing AAPL up the flag pole, the institutions were slowly but surely unloading AAPL.

So my friends, between the Woody Indicator being up in the rafters, AAPL dumping by the institutions, is this market safe? Barr even woke up from the weekend snooze to post a market warning in the comments section Sunday afternoon.

On a personal note, at the HGSI Work Shop group dinner Saturday evening, I had the great pleasure of sitting next to Fred during the dinner. That man is amazing, a great industrialist, educator and market expert.

Oh, let me tell you, for some odd reason it was easier setting fence posts 20 years ago….I can’t figure out why!


******************

For foreseeable short term future – As long as the Spanish 10 year bond rate is above 6.00% and growing, the outlook will remain NEUTRAL.

,

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

Downgrade to

NEUTRAL/

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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April 13, 2012

99% Spring

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

.

.
.
There’s 1000+ different mettings across America this weekend. Primarily organizing over
.
.
Democracy &
.
Income Inequality
.
.
Obviously, the 99% Spring is left of center groups and may not be your cup of tea. (pun intended)
.
To learn more and find a gathering point
in your state/town this weekend
.
.
.
.
Enter Zip code and distance from Home
in appropriate spaces for a meeting near you.
.
(currently set for 5 miles from my house)
.
.
.
.
Don’t know if Elizabeth Warren is associated with
99% Spring, but like reason 202 her quote is about
.
.
What Kind of
.
Democracy YOU Want
.
.
.
.
Thanks to frequent commenters George, Popeye and CDB for requesting I post something on this.
.
.
********************
********************
,

STOCKS

.

China

and  more problems

.

.

Due to Limited Time this AM

Refer to yesterday’s blog for Data Links.

.

  • China – Many investors talked up China’s GDP numbers yesterday (see Paul’s comments). They came in at 8.1% which is a slight bit less than what was expected, but way under the wished for number.
  • At 8:00 AM EST Spanish and Italian bonds are down slightly (@-1.00%)

  • GOOG went nowhere on its earning report. JPM & WFC beat expectations (nothing outstanding) – LINK
  • These are all major fundamentals that range from neutral (JPM) to very negative (China and more important)

.

Reading Tea Leaves

.

.

Not good stock news this AM so

If we can hold onto most of yesterday’s gains

its bullish

******************

,

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

A Less Shaky

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.



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April 12, 2012

Honest Abe

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

.

Open, Honest &

Accountable

.

Does It Matter?

.

..

It’s YOUR Democracy.

.

Should we have standards that demand openness, accountability, and honesty.

.

Let’s Look at some examples

.

__________

.

The Food We Eat

.

.

Should There be Standards?

.

________

.

The Medicines We Take

.

_

Should There be Standards?

________________

.

The Stocks We Buy

.

.

Should There Be Standards?

..

__________

.

The Politicians we vote for

.

.

Should There Be Standards?

.

George Romney, Mitt’s Father, set the standard by disclosing 12 years of tax returns.

He was open, honest, accountable and had

.

Nothing To Hide.

.

*******************

.

Bankstas

Honest, Open & Accountable?

.

.

Should There be Standards?…..

.

Should the Banking Cartel have special –

  • Too Big To Fail Banks?
  • Unregulated $600 Trillion Exchanges?
  • Their own Set of Accounting Rules?

PS – It’s hard to picture the polls, who rely on contributions from Big Banksta Cartel, throw Banksta friends in the Briar Patch

.

**********************

**********************

.

STOCKS

..

____________

.

Spain/Italy

.

.

The Two Euro Countries to Watch

.

Yesterday the Month Long Meltup

in Bond Yields REVERSED.

.

The reversal continues = Bulls Rule.


  • Italian 10 year bond yield is falling this AM, down 2.84% to 5.38% (8:00 AM EST) Well below the 7.00% Danger Zone but along with Spain in a month+ long meltup is a significant concern.
  • Spain’s 10 year bond yield moving in concert with Italy. Down this AM  1.61% to 5.78%.  Spain is more critical, because it is closer to 7.00%.

.

The Cavalry

.

.

Is that the trumpet sound of a Central Bank liquidity Cavalry charge driving down Spanish and Italian bond yields? From yesterday

A one day trend – you hear the sound of the trumpet.

Day two confirms day one move &

a three day fall in Yields would be the

Cavalry is in sight.

.

__________

.

Old Faithful

The McCellan Oscillator

.

  • Our #1 technical forecasting tool, the McClellan Oscillator (MO) rose to -60.87 (for more see  STRATEGY link at top of blog and scroll down) We are in oversold territory at @-60.   = Bullish
  • 6 month chart of MO. & a three year chart. Remember – The MO is best at calling tops and bottoms.  Check out the charts. Last dip was to - 85 in March, then -110 in November and then a 3 year low of -140 last April.

.

********************

.

.

What would make the budding Rally

turn into a

Stampede?

.

.

A better than expected earnings forecast from

GOOG & JPM.

.

GOOG reports after the bell today and JPM tomorrow before the bell. (WFC too)

Several of you are placing an expensive , but palatable, Put/Call option combination trade on GOOG with an expiration on the 21st, or in May. A JPM call seems palatable.

From Yesterday

“For those that can handle the risk

an opportunity to nibble.”

.

******************

.

Paul’s Corner

.

.

A brief look at

Your Stock List


Most stocks on the list took a hit these past few days. If a stock is on the 17 or near the 17 it can be played market conditions permitting. If it “broke the 50” caution should be observed, and ideally not purchased until above the 50.

Check the charts!

CMG – Sitting on the 17

DLTR – broke the 17 but now sitting on the 17

ENBR – on the 50 and 17 basing

FAST – broke down through the 50

FL – above the 50, below the 17

HD – on the 17

IMAX  – breaking down, broke the 50 ALL HGSI indicators are red.

IBM between the 17 and 50

KLAC  – just below the 17

LEN – between the 17 and the 50

MC – on the 17

MNST – above the 17

SWI -  below the 50 and the 17

TSCO – above the 17

URI – broke the 50, all indicators are red

The Home Builders have been a good play these past few months and two ETF’s, ITB and XHB are a good alternative to the individual stocks.  So what’s the difference between the two?

A few days ago, (April 9) Dave Steckler author of the etfroundup.com blog that many of us read wrote the following about these two ETF’s:

“Let me give you another example.  Last Thursday I discussed a long trade signal in ITB, the home construction ETF.  ITB is offered by iShares.  Another big ETF player is Standard & Poors, which offers XHB, the SPDR homebuilders ETF.  So is there a difference between the two and does it matter which one you buy?  It does, which is why you need to drill, baby, drill down and do your research.

ITB keeps roughly two-thirds of its assets in home building stocks and one-third in home furnishings, plumbing suppliers and white goods appliance makers.  XHB on the other hand does the reverse, making the home-focused retailers and suppliers the primary focus and the home builders a secondary focus.  So even though “home construction” and homebuilders” sound like they’re the same thing, they’re not.  Do your homework!”

Blog Link

Which ETF to buy? As Dave suggests do your homework, look at the charts, check the underlying stocks.

Was this just a great buy the dip opportunity or the start of a few months of correction? As Dave Steckler suggests “we will know in the fullness of time!”.

.*************************

******************

,

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

A lot less Shaky

(Because of recent rally in Spanish/Italian bond prices)

CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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