Investors 411 Blog

by Barr Jozwicki
May 31, 2012

Assaults on Democracy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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Remote Control

.

.

How YOU are CONTROLLED

Framing & Buying

Democracy

(A Multi Part Series)

.

The US Supreme Court Passed

The infamous Citizens United by

a 5 to 4 vote.

.

.

ALL 5 votes for changing

the laws governing elections

were made by

RIGHT WING

Justices

.

.

As Democracy Withers

.

“Ask NOT what you can

do for your country”

.

Ask What  price  that

Politician or Media Outlet

can be bought for.

.

How Easy is it to Form a Corporation?

.

Any Plutocrat with $49

can form a Corporation and

.

  • Create A Super PAC
  • Give Unlimited Contributions
  • Give Hidden Contributions
  • Coordinate with Political Candidates
  • Buy YOUR Democracy

LINK for more Info

.

******************

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A more Transparent & Bloody

Assault on Democracy

.

.

Syria

.

  • Latest from correspondent within Syria at BBC


.

*******************

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STOCKS

.

.

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Cartoonist forgot the Irish Iceberg

Otherwise accurate & ominous

.

The EU is the world’s great

hope for Democracy.

.

You have to have a functioning Democracy to join. One wonders if the USA would now qualify in light of  our Supreme court’s Citizen’s United decision.

.

Timeline of Known Events

Impacting Stocks

.

  • Irish Elections this week
  • 1st Friday in June – US unemployment figures.
  • June 7th – Important meetings in EU
  • June 17th Greek elections
  • June 19th & 20th – Our Fed meets.

.

Austerity

.

The world may be finally waking up to the fact that this whole ultra right wing/tea party concept of

.

Austerity NOW  presents

a far greater risk of

.

DEPRESSION

.

rather than

a simple solution.

.

In fact those cans that that are supposed to be insecticide in the cartoon should be considered food supplements instead.

.

Our Canary In a Coal Mine

Stock Market(s) Barometer

.

.

The Canary may not be Dead Yet

But the yield on the 10 year Spanish bond

is rising close to the 7.00% Danger Zone.

.

Today  a huge drop – LINK

6.45% at 8:20 EDT

.

So Stocks should rally

.

NB.- Paul has picked up on the fact that AAPL rose yesterday, despite a stock  meltdown.


****************

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No changes in LTO till Spanish bonds close below at least 6.25%.

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


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May 30, 2012

Democracy For Sale

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , ,

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Damn Proud

.

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Both my wife  and I last night were

.

Damn Proud

.

in voting for Brookline

to join the other 50+ towns in MA

and 5 state legislatures in the USA

to Repeal  the Supreme Court’s

Citizens United Ruling.

.

.

From Now on

411′s Major political focus

will be the fight for


.

In the USA

Finis


.


.


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May 29, 2012

Helicopters & Dog Poop

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

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Germany/Berlin

.

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12 top Thoughts on

Berlin/Germany Trip

.

  • More outdoor Cafe’s than Paris – Wide sidewalks.
  • Phenomenal tram/train system – Moves millions each day
  • Lots of Graffiti – Origins from Berlin Wall – Most of it art work, but lots trash.
  • No slums – I couldn’t find any in 9 days.
  • Absence of smog – From vistas you can see for miles without cloudy brown scum.
  • Forest in center of city and each major neighborhood has huge park – Mine has a Beer Garden in the center.
  • Beware of cyclists (lots) – Separate bike lanes everywhere. – Germans obey pedestrian signals
  • Streets/parks are safe to walk anytime (Homicide rate 6X less than USA)
  • Most expensive baby carriages I’ve ever seen. Lots (More on German Health care later)
  • Best behaved dogs (mostly smaller) I’ve ever seen – But beware it takes a day/two for them to cleanup dog poop.
  • You can carry open beer anywhere (Street/tram)
  • Large immigrant population (@12% like USA) Like USA they seem to be second class citizens.

.

Mucho Thanks to my

pregnant daughter and her guy

for hosting/putting up with me.

.

I understand why you chose

Berlin as a place to live.

.

Standard German joke – The German police discharged their weapons 87 times (low crime rate) last year – Once at a fellow German and 86 times at Greeks.

.

*******************

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STOCKS

.

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This month’s Atlantic Magazine

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Why The USA has tools to Fix

Its Economy and

Europe Does NOT

.

The Answer lies in the

Activist Fed Bank

.

Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and The Fed have the power to set interest rates. The singular difference in this case is the Fed has creatively/controversially printed money to solve/paper over our fiscal/banking crisis.

.

Over $7 trillion – Detractors

$2.9 trillion – The Fed

.

It’s why you often

see this cartoon of

Helicopter Ben


.

  • As a stock investors/trader you have to give Bernanke/the Fed lots of credit. Every time they have directly stimulated the economy/printed money -QE #1 & 2, Operation Twist, (and other ways) stocks have gone UP
  • Also, along with the Obama stimulus/tax cuts and other measures, GDP has gone from from a -8.9% to a relatively steady +2%.

.

The Case against Fed Intervention

Inflation

.

.

  • The Fed’s critics (mostly far right)  starting with TARP have screamed INFLATION will come -
  • Examples – WSJ (The Bond Vigilante editorial) MS (5.5% inflation by end of 2010) Bond King Bill Gross, S&P downgrade of AAA rating, of course Republicans, especially Ron Paul.

.

Problem is year after year

They’re WRONG

NO Inflation has happened

.

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation and it stands at @2.3%. Our 10 year T bill stands at less than 2%.
  • Our dollar is a bit weaker (you could argue that this is good for the USA) but by no means has it melted down. (currently moving higher)
  • DEBT – One reason our Debt is not a Clear and present Danger is that if you adjust for the rate of Inflation 2.3% and how we pay for debt – 10 year Treasury bonds >2.0% (shorter term Treasuries even LESS) we are actually paying down the debt by at least +0.3%

.

The EU’s Problem

Unlike our Fed

.

No Direct Intervention

.

.

  • The EU has economically sound countries and its PIIGS – The S in PIIGS stands for Spain
  • I in PIIGS stands for Italy (EU’s largest economically unsound country). It’s debt is @120% of yearly GDP (ours @100%)
  • Italian bonds costs Italy (according to Megan MeArdle in this months Atlantic) 5% of GDP each year,
  • Japan with more than a 200% debt/yearly GDP ratio has a more interventionist central bank. Japan had a 1.0% growth in GDP last quarter (smaller than USA, but more than Europe)
  • Japan has had low interest rates for a decade so debt is manageable. (There is a case for higher interest rates – but that’s another editorial)

.

Bottom Line

Other problems have

NOT been mentioned

But

If the ECB does NOT institute

more direct intervention

Remember What happened to the

Dodo Bird?

******************

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PAUL’S Corner

.

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[Sorry this was supposed to run on Friday, but there was No 411 in Friday (Editor)]

As we take off a few days for the 1st official weekend of summer let’s take time to remember our fallen heroes and all of the men and women who have served our country.

A quick review of the charts we find the following stocks from YSL are looking decent and should be watched once this correction is over.

DDD

DLTR

HD

LEN

MNST

TSCO

From the April List

FL (for you Jim)

SWI

AKRX

A few extras to watch

BNNY

ITB

MDVN

ROST

XHB

TNGO

SPB

PATK

AVD

Disclaimer – you know the drill, any stock mentioned is for education only and if you buy any of these dogs…..


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*****************

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Investors411 currently focuses on the yield of the Spanish 10 year bond as our canary in a cold mine. In a globalized world this rate strongly impacts Europe and less strongly, but significantly the USA. The rate would have to close back below its support at 6.31% for 411 to consider a NEUTRAL upgrade.

Currently you can find the Italian 10 year bond rate here Last look at &:00AM EDT it was 6.46%

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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May 28, 2012

Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , ,

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US Stock Markets Closed for Memorial Day.

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The Pain In Spain

Cartoon is Back

.

.

It not just Spain,

but all of the Euro

.

Spanish 10 year bonds are the

Canary in a coal mine

That gives the warning signal to

What’s Happening in Europe

.

____________

This AM Spanish

10 year bonds yields

have broken the 6.31%

resistance level & rocketed to

6.45%

____________

7.00% is rate that debt

is considered unsustainable.

Bond prices rising to this level

seem almost inevitable.

.

Therefore,

Time to bring out the old

Lost in Space Robot

and put an exclamation point

on the

Long Term Downgrades

.

.

.

Danger Will Robinson

Danger Danger!

.

On May 9th 411 stated

“There is a Greater Downside

Risk to Stocks.”

Today’s Spanish bond Yields rally puts a big

!

on that statement.


.

Long Term Outlook

3+months

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

.

NB – People have the 2008 meltdown embedded in their minds. So any potential meltdown of the Euro & and the unregulated shadow BANKS connected to their debt is going to get amplified.

The I’d rather be safe (self-preservation) than sorry instinct is very powerful.


.


AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.


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May 24, 2012

Worshiping The Wealthy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

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MYTH BUSTING

.

Worshiping the Wealthy

.

THE CREATOR/

The Jobs Creator

.

.

The Myth - Donald Trump &

The rich are Job Creators

.

“Taxes on the rich go down and

Jobs will go up.”

.

The venture Capitalist

who Blows away the Myth

.

Nick Hanauer

.

.

Hanauer’s 5 minute demolition of

who creates jobs has been viewed

by over 500,000 in a week

.

YOU can See it

by clicking on his photo

.

..

Since 1980 the rich have

tripled in wealth and

their effective tax rate has

gone down 50%

.

Therefore

“We should be drowning in Jobs”

.

If we consumers/customers

in the middle class

got the same breaks as

The Donald & the Plutocracy

We would all

be making $42,000 more.

.

.

Once you start any business

It’s the feedback loop of

consumers/customers buying

that creates jobs

.

.

Think how much better off

the USA would be

if working middle class families had

$42,000 more to buy

products and create jobs.

.

When the working middle class

Grows

EVERYONE  from the poor to the rich

Benefits.

.

THE VIDEO LINK

.

.

*******************

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STOCKS

.

openingimage

OMG Oversold bounce

OMG Oversold Bounce

Continues

(photo from ETF Digest)

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  • Iran - Two events/ meetings have slightly lessened possibility for war. UN/Iran possible inspections. 6 Countries and Iran negotiate in Baghdad. Here’s the BBC’s evaluation on the Baghdad talks, I’m sure the USA mainstream media will be much more negative.
  • My badThe decline in oil prices, in part, is due to the two sides negotiating over Iraq, not just oil falling because of a negative outlook for US economy.
  • This makes the Long Term Outlook a bit more bullish.
  • Major market news is big meeting in Europe over weekend. They always seem to kick the can down the road.  Again BBC News

.

*****************

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From Tuesday – “No changes in LTO until JPM stops falling and starts to recover & Spanish 10 year bond yield starts to fall again back near 6.00%”

We’ve had the start of a recovery in JPM. Partly because it was so oversold and partly because Spanish bond rates fell.

.

The Spanish 10 year yield

is down a bit at 6.18%

at 8:20 AM EDT.

.

It’s high last week was 6.31%. Therefore in a range between 6.31% to 6.00%.

.

A breakout on either side

will determine the course for Europe

and strongly impact USA

LTO – Over 6.31% = CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

LTO – Under 6.00% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Of course unforeseen factors can also change the LTO.

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

NEUTRAL


.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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May 22, 2012

Two Destructive Words

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

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The two most

DESTRUCTIVE words to

the American economy

&

The world’s financial system

.

“Free Markets”

.

.

“Free Market Banksters

2nd from left

Cartel member from

JMP – Jamie Diamond

.

.

Free Market Bankster JPM

after announcing a hidden

$2 billion dollar error,

yesterday announced cancelation of

its $15 billion

stock buyback program


Total  7 day JMP

meltdown - 22%

.

.

Remember the last

“Free Market” Financial

collapse in 2008?

.

.

8 million Jobs lost

.

_______

.

JPM is just another

Warning

.

____________

.

Demand and fight for

transparency,

equal access,

& accountability

.


Cartels, bankters, & the plutocrats

should play by the same rules

we do

.

.

Bring back the sunlight

to financial markets

.

  • No freedom to hide in shadows
  • No freedom to have hidden trades
  • No freedom to have opaque markets
  • No freedom to over leverage our money

.

Postscript – See yesterday’s 411 for more and be sure to catch the latest editorial from…

.

Yankee Bob - LINK Here

.

*******************

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STOCKS

openingimage

OMG Oversold bounce

OMG Oversold Bounce

(photo from ETF Digest)

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PAUL’S CORNER

.

..

Yes we had a nice over sold pop yesterday; it was good and probably a good day to unload some excess inventory or losses.  Your Stock List May 2012 has been thoroughly trashed along with the market. I will post the latest performance chart in the comments section this morning.

Until we see a nice convincing higher low in the averages this market ain’t safe to play in.

Personally I’m in cash (except for my 1 share of FB I bought Friday) and have been for weeks now and it doesn’t look like I have missed too much except some healthy losses.  Years ago I would have tried to dodge and weave with every move of the market and I usually lost.  Perhaps it’s  years of wisdom as I now tend to move aside when the market suggests,  perhaps it’s finally listening to my favorite market guru Ian Woodward and his partner in crime Ron Brown (both from HGSI) and of course Barr and his excellent market analysis.

Ian’s blog link:

Ron’s Weekend Market Report Videos Link

If you are serious about your investing, in addition to listening to Barr, taking the time to read Ian’s Blog and watching Ron’s videos will reward you nicely.

One of the successful HGSI software users is Dr. Jeffrey Scott. Jeffrey usually finds the time every month to hold an online webinar where he looks at the market and usually comes up with some great stocks to follow regardless of market conditions. He started this on his own, but now his free to watch webinars are hosted by HGSI. This evening Jeff will hold a webinar from 8 to 9:30 PM ET.

Jeff’s Webinar Link:

Oh, one last thought, until we see a nice convincing higher low in the averages this market ain’t safe to play in.

*****************

.

No changes in LTO until JPM stops falling and starts to recover & Italian 10 year bond yield starts to fall again back near 6.00%

NBBIG fall in Italian bonds this AM (8:00 AM EDT) down to 6.09%.

LTO back to NEUTRAL if /when we close below 6.05%

.

Clear Bullish sign

and a chance for short term traders

who can handle high risk

to go long – but watch the bond rate.

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

NEUTRAL/

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.





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May 21, 2012

The Banking Debacle

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , ,

.

“It is difficult to get a man

to understand something

when his job depends on

not understanding it.”

.

.

The Banksta Cartel

owns enough

politicians and media

to mute what should be

THE major story

.

JP Morgan

.

.

Too Big To Fail

JPM dropped 18%

over 6 days

on a $2 billion “error”

.

.

A Wake up and

Smell the Coffee Moment

.

Who knows how much toxic debt

JPM or any too big to fail bank has

in the hidden financial markets?

.

  • The 2008 banking cartel meltdown , according to the CBO cost us 50% of 1 year’s GDP/$7 trillion. (Source – MIT’s & IMF’s   Simon Johnson)
  • Panicked  investors ( -18% for JPM) simply don’t know how much hidden toxic debt banksta’s have?
  • Romney, Republicans, some Dems, banksters doing everything possible to keep banking in the shadows – No Dodd Frank No SAFE
  • Ya think JPM could own some toxic Greek, Spanish, Irish debt? Who knows?

.

.

The over leveraging and hidden transactions make a plutocracy rich, powerful and very influential. They label you a socialist if you try to expose their money extraction schemes.

If you made, or are supported by some of trillions extracted from unregulated opaque finance markets you want this to continue.

If you’re concerned about you and your kids paying down $7 trillion in debt or another meltdown you…

.

Wake up and

Smell the Coffee

.

*******************

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STOCKS

.

Anatomy of

411′s downgrades

&

When do we move higher?


.

.

Trends

.

The Major Trend Cycle Still

Impacting Stocks

Shown by following Chart from Zero Hedge

.

The above trend in the form of

Central Banks = Policy Makers,

Still dominating markets

.

_________

.

.

Anatomy of A Downgrade

You can read more about 411 Strategy in the

Strategy section of the blog

.

  • May 4th’ 411 - “Will Europe drag US markets down?” S&P closes at @1370
  • May 7th’ 411 – Oil Prices fall through support and Spanish bond yields a rise above 6.00% resistance level. Spanish bonds =411′s Canary in a coal Mine for Europe Outlook changes to NEUTRAL.  S&P closes at @1370
  • May 9th 411 “All stock Positions now have a greater downside risk” 411 warns – “If Spanish bonds move above 6.10% outlook will be changed to CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH.” S&P closes at @1355
  • May 14th 411 – In addition to Spanish bonds well over 6.10%, 411 warns of seriousness of JPM meltdown. S&P closes at 1340
  • May 15th - NASDQ closes below 2900 support level. S&P closes at 1330 &  ends week at 5/18 at 1295

.

____________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

.

The Two Major Problems

411 Readers should recognize

this picture


.

.

  • The Yield rate on the Spanish 10 year bond has been our very successful measurement of how well Europe is doing.
  • The bond breaking out up through the 6.00% resistance level was bad and 7.00% is the critical (potential default level for a MAJOR European Country.
  • The second is JPM, covered above.

____________

.

Our McClellan Oscillator has just entered OMG oversold levels at -110.33.

Almost always, over the last three years when it gets this low at least a 5+% rally follows on the S&P. (Last time it was only @4%) The MO’s lowest low last August was -140.

.

The MO can tell us we are really oversold,

but it can’t change reality-

Can the ECB keep a lid on Spanish Bond yields?

How exposed to toxic debt is any bank?

Will JPM stop its slide or will others follow?

.

So JPM’s stock price and

the 10 year Spanish T bond yield

are what to watch


If we had a transparent accounting and markets within global banking, 411 would be telling you to buy NOW.


**********************

,

No changes till JPM stock rises and Spanish bond rates fall

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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May 14, 2012

From Berlin

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update

.

Grüße von Berlin

.

Just a quick update from Berlin

Sorry no mail list.

  • The major news from Europe is the the 9.29% JPM meltdown in the USA on Friday. This, of course, is just another warning  the opaque, over leveraged financial system is THE clear and present danger.
  • The anti austerity voters in Germany won a shocking landslide election in Germany’s most populated district 39% to 26% over the weekend. Even German voters think austerity does NOT work.
  • I flew from Dublin to Berlin with a reporter from the Irish Times. He recommended the number 1 best seller there by Shane Ross -” The Bankers” – “How the Bankers Brought Ireland to its Knees.”
  • Paul’s done a great job on stocks and continue to check out the comments section.


Barr

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May 9, 2012

A Double Whammy

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , ,


*******************

.

STOCKS

.

Trends/Headlines

.

.

Oil

.

  • OIl prices take Center stage center stage. Clear 10% meltdown in oil prices has already forced a downgrade in 411′s long term outlook. (See Monday’s blog)
  • For more on inter market analysis & 3D trading see the STRATEGY Section of blog (Scroll down)

.

The Canary in a Coal Mine

is Back

.

.

  • Spanish 10 year Bond Rates [411 uses this as a critical measurement of European/world stock market stability] are remaining relatively stabile considering the news. Yield up ABOVE the 6.00% Danger zone –  At 6.03% (7:30 EDT)
  • Canary is starting to look sick.
  • Now, a A double whammy. – Oil and Spanish bonds.
  • McCellan Oscillator [411 very successful technical tool in market direction - Tops/bottoms] fell to -27.37 Range for last 6 months is -100 to +60.  MO in middle of range so lots of room for MO to move up or DOWN =  NEUTRAL

.

____________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

..

From Friday – “Major Question remains

Can the US market Rally despite the problems

in just about every other major world market?”

.

Answer in US stock market today

will probably be NO

.

.

The Cavalry/Fed/Central Banks

.

Earnings season was the the major event holding up stocks. This has passed.

Oil prices were the first warning, now Spanish bonds. If the 10 year Spanish bond prices continue to move higher - Look out below.

.

The only foreseeable entities

capable of halting another

spring/summer

slide are Central Banks

.

.

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke

Famous/Infamous

Helicopter Ben Image

.

What stocks need in the USA & Europe is another liquidity dump because of the growing recession in Europe. The longer they wait the worse the situation becomes.

Unfortunately 411 has no insider to tell us when the Central Banks will move. But the recent anti austerity reversals in Europe means it will probably take a while before leaders get on the same page.

All long stock positions

now have

greater downside risk


*******************

.

Danger of Another Downgrade

If Spanish 10 year Bond yield is still over  6.0% tomorrow or moves above 6.1% long term outlook will change to CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH.

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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May 7, 2012

Hope for the Future?

Author: Barr Jozwicki - Categories: Market Update - Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

.

Hope for the Future

.

.

Teachers/Heroes

.

Friday’s employment report had one critical fact,

The number of private sector jobs

since the start of 2009 is back in the black

.

The big job losses are coming

in the public sector & its major component is

Teachers

.

Just the Facts

.

Public employment chart Clinton / Bush / Obama

.

Note – The blip higher in @ month 16 is due to census workers. Job losses are at the Federal, State and Local level.

.

Public Sector Jobs Created

Clinton = +625,000

Bush = +825,oo0

Obama = -600,000

.

American Austerity

.

Paul Krugman - New York Times Blog

“If public employment had grown the way it did under Bush, we’d have

1.3 million more government workers,

and probably an unemployment rate of

7 percent or less

..


.

  • As Obama’s stimulus program ran out, so did local funding for state,federal and local public officials.
  • The USA was already falling relative to the rest of the world in education even before this.

.

Swimming Without a Suit

.

.

Tom Friedman’s

2009 Editorial on education

.

“From 1950 to 1980… we still had the lead in education…now we are 24th in science and 25th in math out of 30 countries.”

.

.

Our hope to regain our leadership in education has been crushed since 1980 Republican takeover.

Grover Norquist who wants to reduce  government to the size of a bathtub and drown it, has made Republicans, including Romney, take no new takes pledges even for the wealthiest Americans

.

Our stock market gains 100%

in the last 4 years.

Yet the right trys to take away even the right

of teachers (cops and firefighters etc)

to have collective bargaining.

.

Our Future

.

.

Is there a bright future

if we keep forcing

austerity on education?

.

Solid editorial and inspiration for above – Public Job Losses And GOP Chutzpah by Alec McGillis.

.

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

Trends

.

.

Headlines

.

  • Greece takes center stage. Huge unexpected toasting by anti austerity voters. Stocks in Greece down 7% this AM. The ruling center left/right party got only 32% of the vote.
  • Most troubling for stocks short term is the rise of far right (pro nationalist) and left groups who are opposed to the sever austerity measures.
  • Since 2008 when austerity measures first started Greece’s employment rate has exploded from 8% to 21%

.

.

How the Hell is a country

supposed to get the

revenue to pay its deb if you

increase unemployment

by over 160%

.

Massive Austerity

creates more problems

than it solves.

.

  • Spanish 10 year Bond Rates [411 uses this as a critical measurement of European/world stock market stability] are remaining relatively stabile considering the news. Yield up to 5.81% at 6:00 AM – Not near 6.0% danger zone. So there is NO big panic.
  • German market down 2% this AM.
  • McCellan Oscillator [411 very successful technical tool in market direction - Tops/bottoms] fell to -27.97.  Range for last 6 months is -100 to +60.  MO in middle of range so lots of room for MO to move up or DOWN =  NEUTRAL

.

____________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

..

From Friday – “Major Question remains

Can the US market Rally despite the problems

in just about every other major world market?

.

Answer in US stock market today

will probably be NO

.

.

The Cavalry/Fed/Central Banks

.

The long term stability trend

in Europe is worsening.

.

Who knows how extensive giant “too big to fail” banks are involved in the unregulated opaque derivatives market on European/Greek debt?

.

You can emphasis

balanced growth/jobs

or austerity

.

Austerity is leading to chaos

.

Too many times the can gets kicked down the road in Europe. Each deal on debt according to the voters is too structured in favor of banks or the holders of that debt.


Certainly a liquidity injection by our Fed would help. So would restructuring debt and providing jobs. Who knows how far too big to fail banks can bend? Who knows how far the opaque derivatives market is over leveraged?

.

*************************

.

Paul’s Corner

.

.

Short Paul’s Corner today, from posts I made this weekend in the comments section for your review:

Your Stock List week one results: LINK

– Steve Gerritz’s Blog:

The rally that began on Dec.19th 2011 has run out of steam. The market is now going sideways in a very choppy manner.

http://stephengerritz.blogspot.com/2012/05/daily-market-snapshot-05-04-2012.html?

- Ron Brown’s weekend video market report:

The NASDAQ was down 2.25% yesterday, but it not yet broken support at

the 2950 level.  Until support is broken at the close, a lower high is

not in place. In spite of the negative day, there were some winners

among the Box Stocks.

Ron does good chart analysis on AAPL and points out a few new stocks to add to the watch list.

LINK

- I often suggest reading Ian Woodward’s latest blog.  Ian posted a doozie this weekend.  He hands you the nuts and bolts of where this market is, where it may be going and what you need to watch for. This is one of Ian’s best and it’s brought to you in living color with every bit of wit and wisdom Ian has to offer.

If you are the least bit serious about your grandchildren’s inheritance this is required reading!

LINK

All of the above for education only!

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond yield over 6.0% =  NEUTRAL

Under 6.0% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Oil Prices fell another 4% Friday – Outlook Downgraded to NEUTRAL

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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