*******************

.

STOCKS

.

Trends/Headlines

.

.

Oil

.

  • OIl prices take Center stage center stage. Clear 10% meltdown in oil prices has already forced a downgrade in 411′s long term outlook. (See Monday’s blog)
  • For more on inter market analysis & 3D trading see the STRATEGY Section of blog (Scroll down)

.

The Canary in a Coal Mine

is Back

.

.

  • Spanish 10 year Bond Rates [411 uses this as a critical measurement of European/world stock market stability] are remaining relatively stabile considering the news. Yield up ABOVE the 6.00% Danger zone –  At 6.03% (7:30 EDT)
  • Canary is starting to look sick.
  • Now, a A double whammy. – Oil and Spanish bonds.
  • McCellan Oscillator [411 very successful technical tool in market direction - Tops/bottoms] fell to -27.37 Range for last 6 months is -100 to +60.  MO in middle of range so lots of room for MO to move up or DOWN =  NEUTRAL

.

____________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

..

From Friday – “Major Question remains

Can the US market Rally despite the problems

in just about every other major world market?”

.

Answer in US stock market today

will probably be NO

.

.

The Cavalry/Fed/Central Banks

.

Earnings season was the the major event holding up stocks. This has passed.

Oil prices were the first warning, now Spanish bonds. If the 10 year Spanish bond prices continue to move higher - Look out below.

.

The only foreseeable entities

capable of halting another

spring/summer

slide are Central Banks

.

.

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke

Famous/Infamous

Helicopter Ben Image

.

What stocks need in the USA & Europe is another liquidity dump because of the growing recession in Europe. The longer they wait the worse the situation becomes.

Unfortunately 411 has no insider to tell us when the Central Banks will move. But the recent anti austerity reversals in Europe means it will probably take a while before leaders get on the same page.

All long stock positions

now have

greater downside risk


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.

Danger of Another Downgrade

If Spanish 10 year Bond yield is still over  6.0% tomorrow or moves above 6.1% long term outlook will change to CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH.

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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