Hosni Mubarak

EGYPT

Day 16- A Hero, A Reporter, and a Revolution Matures

Yesterday saw by most reports the biggest demonstration so far. Many thanks to Popeye for his updates throughout the day in the comments.  section of blog.

  • Wael Ghonim Has ‘Galvanized’ Protesters In Egypt Google’s managing director for Egypt was perhaps the leader of the networking on the internet that started the January 25th revolution. He energized the crowd yesterday after emerging from the dictator’s prison. Egypt has a hero. (so does Google)
  • Anderson Cooper- Mubarak has Blood on His Hands Like so many other reporters Cooper was assaulted by Mubarak’s thugs in Egypt. His short video accuratly depicts the dictator’s lies.
  • A Revolution Matures -The largest peceful crowd yet appeared in Liberation square in Cairo. Obviously the people have dug in like the dictator.

al Jazeera’s you tube link  continues to be the best resource. Huffington Post blog on Egypt

These revolutions for freedom and Democracy are a key turning point for the planet. When our kid, grandkids, or history asks a decade from now what did you do to help will the answer be “I was too busy or afraid to lift a finger.”

Dictators from around the world are standing up for Mubarak and putting pressure on Obama

and Obama seems to be caving in (NYT)


What will you do??????????????

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.59% down
NASDQ +0.47% down
S&P 500 +0.42% down
Russell 2000 +0.66% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Yet ANOTHER move higher in WEAK volume. Repeat from yesterday - “50 to 70% of the volume is soaked up by HFT’s chasing imbalances in trades. This makes those investing because of valuations unbelievably small 30 to 50% of yesterday’s already weak volume yesterday.

  • With so few real or valuation Investors participating in this market the Fed POMO (quantitative easing) dominates. It is a Liquidity Tsunami

  • Mantra till it no longer worksstill endorsing the concept that the Fed POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see past Investors411 for many, many moons on this topic).

  • Investment article for today from Seeking Alpha’s Greg Fierman on – The Potential for Inflation

Bottom Line - Monday and Tuesday’s blog focused on some new trump cards that are dominating the US stock market – High Frequency Traders & Dark Pool Exchanges. Investors411 has focused for many months on how the FED’s POMO tsunami of liquidity is driving stocks higher.

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar was flat again yesterday  -0.04%. The three day dollar rally should have hurt stocks, but stocks held onto gains = Bullish. All that had to happen was a flat dollar and like magic US stocks rallied for two days – Bullish Longer term trend three weeks of dramatic fall is  bearish for dollar, and for stocks. Overall for stocks still = Bullish

  • McClellan Index - (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Rose to to +30.3. Over the last three months the new parameters seems to be +/- 40 as an overbought/oversold level.  Stocks outlook = Neutral/bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Same mantraA manipulated US stock market is moving higher on stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing. Financials and stocks have received unbelievable support from our government and the Fed.

Basically, we’ve had a 7 day rally since Egypt erupted. About as far as these rallies usually go is 9 days before they say wait a minute we’re running out of oxygen and they pause or fall. Today is day # 8. The MO is moving close to our (perhaps temporarily) adjusted +40 as over bought. So we are due for a correction.

There will be a lot of investors waiting to buy this dip. So becuse of this and the Fed’s POMO, I don’t expect a big downside move.

Bulls are stampeding

Remember - This rally exists in a Fed Liquidity Tsunami, and well more than 1/2 the real investors (those that hope stocks will grow because companies will do better) have left the US stock market.

What to watch today

UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar)  See $USD above for more. This is the trump card right now.

Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL –  The tech general broke out to a new high in moderately higher volume and confirmed the breakout yesterday

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Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (leveraged ETF 2x small cap stocks, 1/2 position took 5+% profits already) Still moving up, but should consolidate soon
  • REMX (1/2 position, took 5+% profits already) Still moving up –  7 day 10% rally should consolidate soon.
  • DBC. Expect/hope this to be a long term trade.
  • RJA Bought at open when it dipped for 11.40 Expect/hope this to be a long term trade.

From yesterday - Investors411 #1 new area of investments is commodities. For the past few weeks there has been a significant increase in volume in this area = Investors are coming off sidelines to buy.

Reminder Investors usually puts a 5% stop/loss order on all new ETF/ETN’s, & often sell 1/2 when over 5+% profits are realized. No one ever went broke taking profits.


UCO -(2x oil prices)  On dips. Wait till it consolidates lower  and returns to pre Egypt crisis levels or below.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) – Really believe this a good long term holding. Hopefully we’ll get a consolidation and/or dip to buy more soon.

DGP(ETF is 2X gold) . Bounced off what looks like a bottom. (MO is not a factor for gold). Considering today on a dip.

DBC(Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog Bought at 28.62 Stop loss at 5% below purchase price. DBC is tilted to energy. Perhaps preferable or a good alternative would be  DJP that is more agriculture and metals.

*RJA (Agriculture commodities Index) ETN

UWM (2x small cap stocks) – Have set stop/loss for last 1/2 at 40.02 -the price it was bought for.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4 is under construction.)

Hopefully, this weekend, Paul and I can work out another stock list that again outperforms the S&P 500 from 10 YSL #3 stocks and the 26 YOU sent in

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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