Gail Collins, NYT Op-Ed writer of The 5% Doctrine

5% Doctrine

Basically, there is about “5% of our population is and always will be totally crazy. Like the Florida preacher who wants to burn the Korans. Collins goes on –  ”According to the National Institute for Mental Health, 26 % of American adults suffer from a diagnosable mental disorder in any given year” (Thanks to Paul R for bring this editorial to my attention.)

Let’s extrapolate two important lessons from this –

  1. Fear Mongering Islamaphobia (FYI – the NYC Islamic Center that will have rooms for different religions to come and pray together) has clearly whip up the hysteria of both the 26% and the 5% over the NYC Islamic Center. The Florida pastor is the end result. The fear mongererer’s have already done harm to our own troops and its now been a recruiting tool for fanatics/terrorists.  It could get a whole lot worse. Politicians and ideologues (lots/most in that 26% category throw gasoline on this fire and ratings hungry American media throws more. So when you start to Islamic fear monger it has consequences.
  2. Moslem’s have there own 5% & 26% You can argue that this figure is higher/lower. Islamic countries have been subjected to US backed dictators, invasions, their own dictators etc. They generally don’t have a high a standard of living, but lack the technology to spread fear as rapidly as we do. Their, give or take, 5% turns into Hamas, al Quaeda, etc. that do damage to their own religion and the rest of the world.

America’s civil rights hero Martin Luther King was told, its not time, the countries not ready, and how dare you march for freedom. Yet he went on with his Birmingham march. The rest is history.  The same holds true for an Islamic Center in NYC that invites other religions to have rooms in their building to pray.

Many of you oldsters, like me, remember or participated in those marches. Some of you are too young. Jim J in the comments section of the blog reminds us it was Edmund Burke who said “Evil triumphs when good men do nothing.”


KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary


Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.27% flat
NASDQ +0.33% down
S&P +0.48% flat
Russell 2000 +0.06% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month -The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Each year the financial channel and about every other source that talks about volume mentions “when folks return from Labor Day holiday volume rises”. It was below average again yesterday and dismal relative to its moving average and previous years. The retail investor is a dying animal.  Again BB/HFT’s rule.

US Stocks are like a ghost town  and you’re walking around wondering that behind the saloon door might be a zombie or a pot a gold.

If you want some in depth analysis of current situation check out Fredrick Ruffy from Seeking Alpha

China keeps on growing See BDI below as confirmation of this story. Number of stories out there about how China is dominating Clean Energy manufacturing by cheating.

China grows, China cheats, China manipulates its currency, has been a two decade long trend. The USA is caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place, because so much of our companies growth/profits depends on China.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, rose +0.11% higher yesterday. Dollar in 4 week long trading range. For stocks = Neutral
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +0.44% yesterday. Chart pattern = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +36.38 yesterday. Clearly above zero and within 24 points of +60. So we are nearing overbought levels, but still= Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

Even though a breakout to a new (month long) high failed, momentum still with bulls. We may have started a consolidating pattern.

Suppose the fact that the dollar rose a very small amount and stocks also inched higher instead of falling gives bulls some hope till we reach oversold levels.


The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

Short term traders – There’s some wiggle room before overbought levels are reached, but its mighty narrow.

But investors & longer term traders should be thinking that we are getting close to overbought territory and it will soon be time to take some profits.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL



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