Egypt Protests

Egypt

Here’s the question - Do you love Freedom and Democracy more than you fear the Islamic religion? If you love freedom and democracy more you back the people. If you fear radical Islam more you back the dictator who oppresses, tortures and kills his people. .

Mohamed elBaradei former chief UN weapon’s inspector, and head opposition figure arrive in Egypt about 12 hours ago. Wikileaks reporting he is under house arrest.

Live updates can be found on Huffington Post whose headline isChaos in Cairo

Wikileaks has intercepted diplomatic cables  and also tweeting live updates describing events (Caution some graphic descriptions of what the Egyptian dictator does)

Yes, Many or Most Egyptians blame the USA for their dictator

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.04% up
NASDQ +0.58% flat
S&P 500 +0.22% down
Russell 2000 +0.22% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Volume is down from last few years and  just about average according to 50 Day Moving Average. Lower volume means the Fed POMO activity should have greater impact.
  • Davos is the annual conference of the worlds financial elites that is underway. You can see a slide show of the good, the bad and the ugly here
  • The seeming anomaly from yesterday was the +51,000 new jobless in the weekly jobs number. Remember bad news for the markets means perhaps more quantitative easing from Fed. Therefore in a twisted way bad news is good for US stocks Another source
  • Obviously, still endorsing the concept that the Fed [POMO [schedule] is and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see Investors411 for many, many moons).
  • Here’s the Federal Crisis Inquiry Commissions full report on the 2008 meltdown. Gangsters/Banksters did bad. OMG, Congress people may even use harsh words or do NOTHING to those crooks who have cost so many so much money.

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell a modest -0.22% yesterday. The two week dramatic fall of the dollar continues. Dow 12 of last 14 trading days For stocks this is = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]  MO rose slightly to end at +14.40. Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Nothing new to add here except MO is getting higher and as markets become more over bought. But still [60 - 14.40 = 45.60] a lot of wiggle room before stocks get overbought according to MO.

Our major warning this week came from a Tom DeMark and other technical analysts who point out 9 up weeks in a row for DOW & 8 of 9 for other major indexes.  We are also just below some major resistance levels

As long as the FED POMO program keeps dumping dollars into the economy and the more bad economic news there is verifies the Fed’s desire to dump, the stock bubble should keep building.

So for now, the Fed trumps


What to watch for today

UUP -The dollar tracking ETF. Three week bearish trend continues. Dollar down = stocks up.

Dow & S&P 500 Index – Both are just blow major psychological resistance levels Dow 12,000 and S&P 13,000. Breaking these  with confirmation would be bullish

AAPL –  Just a bit further away from upside breakout.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • DDM - (2x Dow stocks) Will take profits on 1/2 this position at + 3 or 4% instead of the usual 5+%
  • REMX - (rare earth metals)(1/2 position)
  • UWM – ( 2X small cap stocks) Bought on 26th for 42.53. Will take profits on 1/2 at 5+%. Stops in place for all ETF today at price they were bought for.

Under consideration - Looking to add more on dip. (see comments section of blog for inter day timing)

DDM - (2x DOW) The trend to big cap stocks is apparent.

UWM (2X small cap stocks) Hope, but doubt this will be long term hold.

UCO -(2x oil prices) All commodities, are under pressure from inflation worries in emerging markets. UCO broke support level in big way. Waiting for it to settle.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars. Really believe this a good long term holding.

FAS (3x financials) & UYG (ETF that does 2x financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions.  This sector is being manipulated higher by Fed. Those that can overcome ethic problems with shadow banks could consider buying. Yes, this is another bubble building.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) Falling too fast. Wait till it settles.

*DBC - (Commodities ETF) DBC - New today and would buy any smaller dip. More to come

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YOUR Stock List #4 is Under Construction.
The previous three beat their benchmark S&P 500. (closed before earning – we are seeing or compiling data what they do after earnings) Results ranged from +190% to plus 22% over S&P on the total lists. See Positions Section of blog for more.
Here’s what YOU can do. Send a a short list (mo more than 3) of your favorite stocks in to me by email or list them in the comments section. Only requirements -
  • the 50 Day Moving Average is Moving Higher
  • Trades $5 million dollars worth of stock each day – Multiply trading volume by stock price. {Example 500,000 shares times $10.00 price = $5,000,000}

This List works because of YOUR participation. Both Paul and I will go over it and whittle it down. Then we are going to add them too some of the stocks from YSL #3.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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