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Dr Delos Cosgrove – From Fortune Magazine

The Cleveland Clinic

There is something in this Fortune Magazine interview of  Dr. Delos Cosgrove, head of the world famous Cleveland Clinic (#1 ranked in cardiac care for last 15 years – yet charges much less than other major hospitals) for all sides in the Heath Care debate.

How does he get his world renowned doctors to work for salaries? His concepts on health care? His ROI (Return on Equity) No yelling, screaming and politically motivated statistics.  Agree or disagree with Dr. Cosgrove – but the 40,000 who work for the Cleveland Clinic get results.

Nothing else, this one editorial is worth focusing on.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.05% up
NASDQ -0.06% up
S&P 500 -0.17% up
Russell 2000 -0.67% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend.

A significant rally (all major indexes up over 1.00%) collapsed in the last hour of trading. Biggest single factor behind the fall was the rise in the dollar against other currencies. The last two times we had a breakout of the dollar (click on chart to see trading pattern for early Dec. & mid Feb. below) the dollar rose another 2 to 4% after the breakout.  The dollar rising historically is NOT good for stocks.  We had our rally of the last few weeks when the dollar was flat.

The problem specifically is Greece, but other European countries are in trouble. (Portugal, Italy,Ireland & Spain plus many former USSR satellite counties)  A third cause of Greece’s problems not mentioned yesterday is corruption or total lack of transparency.

We also have a significant problem rising and that is in long term  government bonds. A sale of 7 year Treasury bills did not go well. CNBC analyst gave them a D. The 10 year T bill has exploded higher the last two days and broken out of its trading pattern. Notice strong positive correlation between the 10 year and dollar.  Basically interest rates (yields) on the ten year are going up. T bill now at 39.01 which roughly translate to a 3.9% interest rate.  Over 4% or better 4.25+% and the whole recovery is in trouble.

The world’s economically interconnected. The fact that our stock market stayed strong despite a rising dollar shows strength, (hope this is what JAB is trying to say in comments section) but its starting to wobble.

Two fundamental factors may help stocks - We are nearing the end of what looks to be a relatively good quarter for stocks and the monthly jobs report late next week has three reasons to expect a decent number – new government census jobs, snow distorting calculations, and some recent weekly gains.

Explosive situation could go either way The rise in the dollar/10 year treasuries almost merits taking out the “Lost in Space” TV show robot with all the bells and whistles and shout DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER DANGER As many of you know the DANGER signal is  as loud as I shout about impending doom. If the dollar & 10 year treasury yields move higher (so will interest rates) not only are stocks in trouble, but so is the whole economy.

We are running up to a cliff.  Today and next week are critical for the dollar and the 10 year Treasury bond. Therefore also critical for stocks and the economy.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell to -16.92 yesterday. +60 or above = Overbought -60 or below = oversold. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. -  The $NYMO chart has made a series of lower highs and lower lows = Bears Rule.
  • US Dollar - rose another +0.32%. This confirms the breakout and huge move of two days ago. Dollar closed at $82.16 = Bears Rule

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

All our 3 D stocks, the ones Investors 411 owns and hopes to own are significantly outperforming the overall markets.  Short term – Dreamworks Dragons movie opens this weekend and Titan’s next weekend are adding fuel to their rally. AIWL is still packing them in at IMAX, but How To Train Your Dragon starts today.

Going to take profits on long term holding FXI

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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