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Change in Long Term Stock Outlook

See Positions section below for why stock outlook was upgraded and editorial

CNBC – Las Vegas/Glenn Beck

CNBC is easily the #1 financial channel. With shows from “Fast Money” to “Mad Money” CNBC hypes the quick buck on Wall Street by combining the glitter of Las Vegas and the antics of Glenn Beck.  The blatant emotionalism sells for CNBC and their advertisers – the stocks they want you to buy. Confession – I have CNBC on a lot as background when I work and its on right now waiting for the 8:30 jobs report.

CNBC so lauded Greed based Capitalism (“Free markets” as opposed to rules based capitalism) it can be said it was a significant contributing factor to 2008s economic meltdown.

Jon Stewart’s Daily Show took CNBC’s star Jim Cramer to the woodshed over this. CNBC has put together a formula of hype, emotionalism, screaming that sells to fear/greed short term investment crowd.  Indeed this is a style diametrically opposed to the one Nobel prize winning psychologist and founder of Behavioral Economics Daniel Kahneman uses.

(to be continued)

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.46% down
NASDQ +0.51% down
S&P 500 +0.37% down
Russell 2000- +0.49% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

Stocks rallied (minor rally) in weak volume AGAIN.  This is the Bull markets mantra. (See editorial and change in Long Term Outlet below) Fundamentally there was some good weekly jobs data, but the big news is the monthly jobs numbers coming out at 8:30 EST this AM

Jobs Report -  February employment numbers  – Unemployment held at -9.7% and jobs down -36,000, a bit better than expected -60,000. January revised down -6000 (minor)

This is about as good as it gets for stocks. The fact that employment is NOT declining means interest rats will stay low and the Fed will keep flooding the economy with money.  Expect a rally.

Good news is monetary policy has helped stabilize the employment decline and we are down from 3 months ago.  The bad news is we are still at 9.7%

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator slipped slightly to +52.43 yesterday We are now just below +60 or Overbought territory. Stockcharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($nymo) LINK We are still close to oversold territory, but have fallen over 10 points in last few days. This gives us a bit of up side wiggle room. However, still holding onto the sell more into any major move higher.  The McClellan Oscillator would have to at least get 5 or 10 points above recent high of 62+ to sell.

Because of the change in Long Term Outlook to Cautiously Bullish - any pullback in the McClellan Oscillator to say +20 would be an opportunity to nibble again.  This market wants to move higher.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Even though markets are close to being oversold in the short trm – the Long Term Outlook has been upgraded to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. from NEUTRAL The reason for this is technically that the benchmark S&P 500 (see chart) has for 4 days traded above its 50 day moving average. It has also formed a series of higher price highs and one higher low. Yes, volume, the #1 confirmation factor, has been weak, except for the first two+ months of the Bull Market that started in March. In fact, the chart shows volume has basically declined since May.

Behaviorally – there are many investors out there who have been burned by the Capitalism of Greed that they are holding onto other investments like bonds. There are two main possible ways (perhaps more) that these traders would buy into stocks

  • Greed based capitalism becomes Rules based capitalism – Some transparency is reintroduced into US financial markets – From standardized mark to market accounting to regulated Credit Default Swaps to eliminating to big to fail institutions.
  • Seeing the markets move higher, greed overwhelms those on the sideline and they jump in building another bubble. Its hard to predict exactly what behaviorally would trigger those that are seeking safer havens than US equities.

For decades volume has been the #1 confirmation factor of a price move. This is simple supply and demand economics. The more people that want to buy something (demand) – the higher the price grows (assuming basically the supply of stocks is relatively constant).  In the end something has to give. However, technically, higher highs and crossing the 50 day moving average are both bullish indicators. The lack of volume is the caution.

NB – We are in a position of change and sometimes markets can reverse themselves quickly.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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