Radiation in Tokyo Tap Water

“radioactive iodine that exceeds the level considered safe for infants has been detected in Tokyo’s tap water, a city official said on Wednesday, advising parents not to give it to their babies. Sydney Morning Herald

  • Tokyo is 150 miles from leaking nuke plant.
  • How long did it take for radiated water to  reach Tokyo. (Example- Was a water source 2 miles from the plant radiated and can water traveled underground that far? )
  • Will radiated water (twice infant safety levels) extend further to all of Japan?
  • Japan recently significantly raised the amount of an acceptable radiation dose.
  • Black smoke again coming from a reactor and plant again evacuated. (these evacuations have been temporary in past)
  • Shut down reactor #1 now overheating to 400 degrees Celsius- TEPCO

“water at a purification plant for the capital of 13 million people had 210 becquerels of radioactive iodine — more than twice the safety level for infants.” Another headline

Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger - It’s time to bring out the old Lost in Space Robot with all its bells and whistles to shout danger, danger for investors.

The crisis in Japan has been underestimated and impacts hidden by officials. (see past posts) The news has also been overshadowed in the USA by our self interest and fascination with (Libyan) war.

The Japanese rector crisis is not going to be over until all the leaking reactors are encased like Chernobyl’s.

Bottom Line - Simply put, there is a danger that Tokyo and a large portion of Japan will be a radiated ghost town – the implication for the Japanese and the world economy is going to be far greater than first feared.

Our hearts and prayers go out to the brave, heroic people of Japan. You are handling this crisis far better than Americans.

However as an investor, its prudent to be cautious until the extent of the damage is known.

Postscript -Very happy for JS, a frequent contributor,  whose family member flew back to USA a few days ago.

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.15% down
NASDQ -0.31% down
S&P 500 -0.36% down
Russell 2000 -0.54% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUS - Investors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Its a ghost town as trading dries up after a big three day gain. Usually holding onto 90+% of a three day gain in low volume is a confirmation of the move higher. But the old technical text book has been thrown away because of  a liquidity driven manipulated stock market.
  • Headlines rule - The Japan headline may not have a big impact on stocks immediately, but the potential negative impact over time is vast.
  • Futures prices were +30 for Dow at 6:00AM EST and now -25 at almost 9:00 AM. So impact of radiated water seems to be minimal.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar was basically flat -0.05% Bearish longer term pattern. For stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell to -4.03 Right in the middle – not overbought or oversold. = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Repeat from yesterday - The USD and the MO are the two technical tools that have a track record of working in this manipulated US stock market. One is neutral the other bullish.

Because the Japanese government has downplayed the tragedy, the Japanese people have not panicked, and American news is focused on Libya, the extent of the damage has been grossly underestimated. (see warning above) . Radioactivity at levels harmful to infants in the water supply is going to impact the health, industrial capacity and consumer power of Japan far more than originally estimated.

This can easily overwhelm our liquidity driven manipulated market.

Investors or media in the USA may not pick up on this story immediately, but it sure looks like it has major long term consequences that will impact Japan’s GDP.

What to watch today

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya. (diminishing factor, but still important)
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

The Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • Bought UWM. Sold 1/2 at 45.69 for +5% gain.

UWM – - Sell order in at 43. 93 (1% above what i was bought for) which will close entire position.

ETF’s currently Under Consideration

As short term play considering ETF’s that short market (they are listed in POSITIONS Section of blog on top right)

Hedge play – Shorting the NASDQ and going long the Dow through ETF’s – Reasoning – Tech stocks are very dependent on Japan for both consumers and manufacturing. The Dow 30 is not as dependent.

EWV for those who love risk is the ETF that is ultra short (2x) Japan.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices.

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. – Shouda Woulda Coulda – Up +3.73% yesterday – Now a buy the dip

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold)also SLV (silver). At or near new highs

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. SeePOSITION section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.”

If the majority of the major indexes again start to trade above their 50 day moving averages the long term outlook will change back to CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. The Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) already is and the others are close. (See charts at top right of blog)

Longer Term OutlookNEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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