Mad Hatter from Tea Party

Bravo Arizona

The most under reported election story yesterday-Arizona, like most states is faced with a budget problem, faces massive cuts especially in “education, police, health care and other services”  Arizona, is a conservative state.  They voted to RAISE TAXES by an overwhelming 64% Story LINK

Tea Party

The most over reported story by American media – Kentucky. Raul Paul (Ron Pail’s son) and a Tea Party favorite won election and beat the Republican establishment candidate. Paul and the Tea Party was all over the National media and you heard almost nothing about the Democrat winner Jack Conway. Despite the following facts -

  • Both Conway and his challenger gathered more votes than Paul in this traditionally Republican state.
  • 35% more Democrats voted than Republicans in KY.
  • This was a close race and they usually get more attention than those with easy victories

The problem is the Tea Party’s ability to have American media be their lapdog.  This media bias is a HUGE problems for Democrats.

Oil Smothers Coast

Headline Huffington Post headlines and has photos

Investment Analysis of EU Crisis

Below under Positions

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.63% up
NASDQ -0.82% up
S&P 500 -o.51% up
Russell 2000 -1.22% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Both the Dollar and the US markets fell = Bearish

Increased, average, volume on down day = Mildly bearish

$9 billion was taken out of mutual funds last week = we are loosing the retail investors = Bearish

Rally into close – probably due to dollar falling and Fed minutes suggesting growth = Bullish

Strongest sign = The dollar fell significantly & stocks did not end up positive = BEARISH

From Yesterday – All of this is about the European stability and survivability. If this EU falls so does the worlds largest economic zone. (it’s slightly bigger than the USA) The good news for Europe is the lower the Euro goes the better it is for their exports

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator fell to -105.37 yesterday.  [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO)LINK. - This is OVERSOLD territory. The lower this oscillator go the more oversold markets become. =  Bullish
  • US Dollar – Yesterday the dollar fell to $86.28. Down a significant -0.84% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important . The area around $88 is a major resistance area/ multi year high for the dollar. Obviously some entity(ies) are stepping up to buy the Euro. (see analysis below) Looks like this will stabilize the Dollar/Euro relationship at least for now. = Bullish

There’s more Bearish than Bullish above and futures are way way down. We have FEAR on Wall Street.

Time to bring out the Old Lost in Space Robot and Shout DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER DANGER The 200DMA of the benchmark S&P 500 is going to fall at open and that should bring on a lot of long term investor and programed trade selling.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Have not had a chance to update the positions section of blog.  No buying & selling yesterday.

We moved deeper into OVERSOLD territory, McClellan now at -105.37 = The momentum on the downside is strong. We are again near low two weeks ago of  -123 and the Oct. 2008 meltdown low of @-130

Stopped out of the rest of SNDK yesterday.

Yesterday IMAX took a -3.79% hit in well below average volume. If it has a similar day today it will be close to it’s 50DMA and a buy the dip opportunity

Analysis of EU Crisis & Investing - When the McClellan Oscillator reached a low of -130 in 2008 we stood on the verge of a meltdown or collapse of the banking and insurance companies all across the world. People were already lining up and many had taken uninsured $ out of banks on that Friday.

The question is are we on the verge of a collapse of the European Union? The crisis, of course, is all part or a continuation of the 2008 meltdown (over leveraged shadow financial structures) The EU was created to insure the prevention of war (WW2), to stand as a block against the Russia, and be an economic power in its own right. It’s combined GDP is greater than the USA. If this Union were to disintegrate the world’s economy could easily suffer a meltdown. If European banks meltdown and the whole worldwide opaque, over leverage banking system  could again stand at the edge of a cliff.

If you think the EU will dissolve or be irreparably damaged, the fallout will be HUGE across the world – Probably a second Great Depression. In this case the McClellan will go below -130

My read of the tea leaves is this will NOT happen.  Central European banks and Central banks will print whatever money it takes and inflate their way out of this like the USA. Bailouts have already started. Yesterdays rally in the Euro and decline in the dollar was probably due to European Central Bank (maybe others too) buying the Euro. But it will get ugly before it gets better.

Therefore, buy the dip, is still the option Investors411 will use it.  However, taking profits on UWM & probably loss in ICON at open or on any rally today.

Short term there is just too much downside momentum and we are in danger of braking 200 DMA on benchmark S&P 500. This trumps everything else!

If we have a climax sell off, will nibble on dip.

Any close below the 200DMA on the S&P 500 will change outlook to CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH We came close yesterday.

Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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