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I hope to be adding to this post

later today

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Mea Culpa

Editor in Dog House

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As Jim J points out

in Comment Section

Yesterday I ignored


The McClellan Oscillator

“Our #1 Forecasting tool”


.

Oops

Find out more on the MO in the

STRATEGY Section

[scroll down]

[STRATEGY Section located on top banner of blog]

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General guidelines

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  • Oversold conditions = ( @-30 moderately oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold) = buy
  • Overbought positions (@+ +30 moderately overbought, +60 overbought, +80 OMG overbought) = sell

Nothing’s Perfect. The MO [LINK] has been amazingly accurate in picking highs and lows, especially at OMG oversold and overbought levels. Last time was an example of the MO not being perfect (nothing is).

The MO hit its last OMG low [LINK] (Below -90) on May 18th. A signal to BUY. The S&P 500 [LINK] did go a bit more than 2% lower, before rocketing up from low of @1260 to the OMG MO High (it was over +82)  of @ 1360 two days ago.

The +82 is a signal that its going to be very hard for stocks to go higher.

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Usually when we reach the OMG

oversold or overbought levels

the  S&P moves at least 5%

in the opposite direction

before changing.

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All technical indicators are guidelines, not absolutes and can be trumped by fundamental events.  Remember how a exceptionally good or bad earnings report can obliterate any technical stock pattern.

Bottom Line – My bad. – The McCellan Oscillator should never be the ONLY technical tool. Other technical tools are important. So are fundamentals and how investors, traders and manipulators react to fundamental news,  But  the MO does work pretty well.

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Right now its telling us to

expect at least a 5% drop

before a 5% rally on

the S&P 500

&

June 19th was a time

to sell or short

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*****************

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STOCKS

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Both the S&P and NASDQ took out some pretty important technical levels yesterday.  I do think the bulls have some moxie left in the tank and will fight (see yesterday’s 411 on stocks)

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Long Term Outlook

next 3 months

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NEUTRAL/

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH

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AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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