“Who you going to believe me or your own eyes”

Groucho Marx’s in Duck Soup.

This immortal line was spoken by Groucho Marx in the 1933 classic movie Duck Soup. Groucho used it, when caught in bed with another man’s wife. It appropriate today.

Politicians, oligarchs, and dictators would have us believe the #1 problem in the Middle East is Islamic Fundamentalism or the Israeli/Palestinian problem. It’s to their benefit to do so and although these problem’s exist, they pale in comparison to the number one problem -

The socioeconomic marginalization of the people.  They want bread and freedom. This is transparent from  anyone watching the masses of people stand up for food and freedom and against the cruel and corrupt dictator in Egypt.

It is not only spreading like wildfire throughout the Arab world, It is a mega tend that exists even in the jobless numbers in the USA. It is The Lesson of History

“Societies and the world develop super elites, or a ruling class that has two ways to survive – They either suppress/crush dissent or they share the wealth. It’s obvious what the better outcome is.”

Who are you going to trust them or your own eyes?

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.58% down
NASDQ +0.49% down
S&P 500 +0.77% down
Russell 2000 +0.75% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Market’s returned to their pattern of prices moving higher and lower volume. This means Fed POMO program back in charge. Today will act as a confirmation of that move.
  • This week we will have the monthly employment number. Remember – Bad news means more Fed POMO and in the short term this is good for stocks, but long term horrible for the economy.
  • Obviously, still endorsing the concept that the Fed [POMO [schedule] is and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see past Investors411 for many, many moons on this topic).
  • Here’s the nuts and bolts of today’s trading from Seeking Alpha

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar fell a significant+0.51% yesterday. Longer term trend Two+ weeks of dramatic fall is  bearish for dollar,  and for stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.]  Rose to  -3.92 Smack dab in middle of range. Equal up side and down side potential = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Egypt is still an important consideration. However yesterday light volume rally means things are back to the normal -Fed POMO manipulating markets higher. Today is the confirmation of yesterday’s move.

Mea Culpa – I thought Egypt would have a bigger impact. The investing public did NOT see people getting tortured, burned, and building blowing up and perhaps got bored after 15 minutes. The army takeover has calmed things down. What’s far more important for investors is that many commodities reached new highs, especially food based commodities and oil.

The big move higher in food and oil has inflationary consequences.

What to watch today

UUP -The dollar tracking ETF.  From Yesterday -“Investors may flood into dollar because of worries in Middle East sending it higher and stocks lower. Definitely what to watch.” UUP  opened significantly lower and stayed theirThis means there is no panic over outcome in Egypt. Today would be a confirmation of the move.

The dollar is a contrarian indicator.

AAPL –  Again closing in on an  upside breakout.

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#1 Investment area for the year

Commodities – If you are a long term investor this is a must area for any portfolio. Why.

  • The need – Look at the streets of Egypt or the growing middle class in China. – Food and energy. Example – Rice closed after reaching an all time high yesterday. Trading was halted because it reached the limit price could move higher.)
  • Commodities are a great hedge against inflation and all the world’s central banks are creating liquidity which will result in inflation.
  • Diversification. just owning stocks is one dimensional.
  • The world’s population is growing. New middle classes are emerging. If the Egyptian revolution has an economic basis -The result is the demand for food will grow. – Those lower class revolutionaries are demanding better food and access to more. In fear of and because of the Egyptian revolution oligarchs wil supply people with more food and energy.

More information coming, See ETF DBC in Position section below.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • NONE - Investors411 was stopped out of all positions at or just below the price they were bought for on Friday.

Under consideration –  Especially commodities outside gold. Going to buy today. I know its a breakout and not a dip, but hope to hold for a long long time. See above. REMX(again), DBC, and will wait for a slight dip in UCO. Starting small and building larger position.

UWM (2X small cap stocks) Hope, but doubt this will be long term hold.

UCO -(2x oil prices) .

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars. Really believe this a good long term holding.

FAS (3x financials) & UYG (ETF that does 2x financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - .

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) Falling too fast. Wait till it settles.

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see this link

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YOUR Stock List #4

Today at 4:00 PM EST is the deadline to choose a a couple of stocks for our new stock list. (use my email or post in comments section to submit them) .
YOU can make a difference. The more stocks that are sent in the better the chances for a stock list that outperforms the S&P 500. The first three have out performed the S&P 500, one by over 180%. All the choices are put together and the best 10 to 15 are chosen. This year we will be combining the best of YSL#3 with the new choices.
Requirements for stock selection below.
  • the 50 Day Moving Average is Moving Higher
  • Trades $5 million dollars worth of stock each day – Multiply trading volume by stock price. {Example 500,000 shares times $10.00 price = $5,000,000}

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4) which is under construction.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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