Obama’s Speech

Barak Obama’s major addresses are almost always grand slams.

Unfortunately, actions speak louder than words.

Speaking about the 9 year old who died in the Arizona terrorist massacre – “I Want America To Be As Good As She Thought It Would Be.” This is a link to both speech and comments on Huffington Post.

The Maestro

The following is a description of an interview. It’s from the Atlantic magazine, author - CHRYSTIA FREELAND

Title -The Rise of The New Global Elite

Here’s an excerpt.

[He]…was interviewing a guest who made a forceful case that the U.S. economy had become “very distorted.” In the wake of the recession, this guest explained, high-income individuals, large banks, and major corporations had experienced a “significant recovery”; the rest of the economy, by contrast—including small businesses and “a very significant amount of the labor force”—was stuck and still struggling. What we were seeing, he argued, was not a single economy at all, but rather “fundamentally two separate types of economy,” increasingly distinct and divergent…

What made the argument striking in this instance was that it was being offered by none other than the former five-term Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan: iconic libertarian, preeminent defender of the free market, and (at least until recently) the nation’s foremost devotee of Ayn Rand. When the high priest of capitalism himself is declaring the growth in economic inequality a national crisis, something has gone very, very wrong.”

(highlights mine)

Just Like President Eisenhower who had spent his who life in the military and warned in his farewell address of the rise of the military industrial complex. Alan Greenspan, THE MAESTRO, has, so to speak, found religion or the truth.

The New Global Elite is a long but worthwhile editorial. Investors411 will bring you more on how globalization and politics has created

a worldwide plutocracy of privileged wealthy elites who have far more in common with each other than any country.

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Check out a new Yankee Bob’s always passionate editorial, the stock advise and other remarks in the the comments section of blog.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.72% down
NASDQ +0.75% flat
S&P 500 +0.90% up
Russell 2000 +0.83% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

For longer term investors - A more complete explanation of why US stocks are moving higher and will continue to do  lead by the opaque shadow banking sector in coming soon.

If you’ve been paying attention it is a compilation of past Investors411 of the lat few months. Greater detail in following updates.

Essentially the pattern is the same as when Obama first took office. Low interest rates combined with quantitative easing (Fed buys bonds from opaque shadow banks that have few rules/regulations governing them) This trillion+ in liquidity drives stocks higher. Add to this that many emerging markets are still economically growing at 3 to 5 times the rate of the USA. This is both where the jobs are and the new consumers for products are being created.

This market manipulation has another 6 months left of quantitative easing and if housing and jobs do not recover it will probably be extended.

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar’s decline accelerated yesterday to a significant  -0.16%. Fall is bearish for the dollar and bullish for stocks, but its within its consolidation range. So outlook= Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose yesterday to  +17.97 The MO has been no where near +/- 60 for two months, but the chart shows a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows and that’s bullish. Outlook overall for stocks = Neutral
  • 10 year T Bill (TNX)  In consolidation pattern. Yield at 33.55 = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Mea Culpa – I was wrong about the BDI. (See comments section of blog on Tuesday) It seems an oversupply of ships being built is what’s causing its fall.  When you erase this factor, fundamentals are more bullish. The high price of commodities shows the rapid expansion of emerging markets and export dominated countries. Bottom Line –  the BDI has been dropped as a forecasting tool.

The MO looks like its back on its way to establish a higher high (see above) Momentum with bulls.

What to watch

AAPL -Today will mark the 9th day since Apple turned higher. Over the last couple months Investors411 introduced the DeMark 9 day timing as a tool to use when stocks get over extended.  Another way to look at this is to see how far AAPL is above its 50 day moving average on chart – Far, but not as far as in the past. Our stock market general if it has a good day today is probably in for at least short term consolidation.

UUP – (tracking ETF for Dollar) Gapped lower and continued to fall throughout day within consolidation pattern. Dollar down = stocks higher

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM – (2x small cap stocks) UWM still outperforming other US indexes. (I have a 4% trailing stop loss on 1/2 this position)
  • REMX – (rare earth metals) Hopefully a long term holding was bought  again at 23.55. Tuesday (see comments section of blog)

Under consideration

UCO -(2x oil prices) Very erratic, waiting till correction settles in

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars.

EWZ (Brazil) & LBJ ( 3x Latin America – majority Brazil) Obviously the later is more risky because its leveraged 3X. Waiting for larger pull back on both.

UYG (ETF that does 2x Dow financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - Shadow banks have numerous advantages. – Opaque, special help from Fed and your still on the bottom line to bailout too big to fail institutions. Those with no ethic problems with shadow banks could consider a buy.

DGP – Will buy back into this 2x gold ETF on dip. Consolidating at support level. Those that can tolerate the risk – now’s the time to buy.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#3)

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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