Egypt Army

Guns, Knives, Cavalry charges, sticks, stones, Molotov coattails have been used by Mubarak’s thugs to try to break the pro democracy demonstrators.

I’ve written Obama and told him as a contributor to his campaign I was ashamed of his lack of actions in supporting democracy and my association with him. YOU can reach him at LINK

Forgot who said it first, but Obama’s actions are like a major arms dealer selling weapons to one side, then stepping back and saying play nice to both sides.

Outstanding updates, heart felt emotions, and excellent posts in the comments section of the blog.  From Yesterday (scroll down) Some coherent thought on investments can almost always be found in the comments section too.

Al Jazeera LINK that has the latest. Slow connection . This network is getting overwhelmed with people wanting to see what’s happening. You can also try their You Tube page

Just skimmed this in NYT. If the US has indeed split with Mubarak -It’s about time – But certainly an announcement of a split has to be done by Obama.

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Think the Derivatives Problem is Fixed?

Two big bubbles are building

  • What happens when the training wheels come off the Fed POMO program?
  • What’s to stop the too big to fail shadow banks from doing the same thing again?

From the BostonReview, Omar Rosen, on Citigroup’s corporate derivatives team for 3 years tells of his experiences

Bottom Line – The bubble building of Wall Street greed goes on and on and on

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Kinetic Sculpture

Wow now this guy is a great sculptor. From the BBC – Watch them move. Thanks to EW for sending in the piece on Theo Jansen.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.02% down
NASDQ -0.06% down
S&P 500 -0.27% down
Russell 2000 -0.34% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Yesterday was “confirmation” of the previous day’s rally. Major indexes held onto their big gains from previous day.
  • Typical low volume day that may have been worse, but for the Fed’s POMO program
  • Tomorrow. we will have the monthly employment number. Remember – Bad news means more Fed POMO and in the short term this is good for stocks, but long term horrible for the economy. Here’s Jeff Miller on the report
  • Mantra till it no longer worksstill endorsing the concept that the Fed [POMO [scheduleis and will be the key factor in keeping a long term rally going. (see past Investors411 for many, many moons on this topic).
  • Typical warning from too many stock analyst’s to count. Dow Over 12,000 = Buyer Beware.

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Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Dollar was basically flat +0.12% yesterday. Longer term trend Two+ weeks of dramatic fall is  bearish for dollar,  and for stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell to to +16.13 Smack dab in middle of range. Equal up side and down side potential = Neutral

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Reading The Tea Leaves

Still can’t believe crisis in Egypt has so little impact on market. Perhaps I’m letting my pro democracy bias get in the way. However I feel that if a momentous event like this does not impact the market, what will to turn off the bulls who have embraced the Fed’s quantitative easing?

The same holds true for the employment numbers tomorrow.

Bottom Line - Bad news is good for the markets because it means more quantitative easing. Right now QE #2 (quantitative easing or Fed POMO program) trumps everything – so running with the bulls until it stops.

What to watch today

UUP -The dollar tracking ETF. UUP in three week fall. Stabilized yesterday.  Very bearish pattern for dollar and therefore for stocks = bullish. Still about $1.25 above major support. This support level is the most likely spot bears and bulls will fight stage a major battle.

The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks

AAPL –  The tech general again closing in on an  upside breakout.

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Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced)

  • UWM (leveraged ETF 2x small cap stocks) Stop placed on what it was bought for and will sell 1/2 if 5+% gain
  • REMX
  • DBC

No additions or subtractions to any position planed. UCO is only possibility if there is a dip. – Figure Gulf oil supply will be impacted by Egypt crisis. Oil dictators will be mad at Obama for not backing their fellow butcher in Egypt, and others like me are furious at Obama for not supporting Democracy.

UCO -(2x oil prices)  On dip

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) –  Rare commodity used in everything from some TV’s to hybrid cars. Really believe this a good long term holding.

FAS (3x financials) & UYG (ETF that does 2x financials) XLF is the financial ETF. - .

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) Falling too fast. Wait till it settles.

DBC – (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see this link Rice and sugar agin at new highs.

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Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” (YSL#4) which is under construction.

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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