Fear

Each day two classrooms in the United States are emptied in the USA because these children are diagnosed with cancer.

Yet the brainwashing American media yesterday, from networks to blogs, focused on a “mentally ill, homeless and violent” man with guns and a bomb holding three hostages in Silver Springs MD.

Our culture has simple become conditions to over hype anything with guns, bombs and a potential terrorism because fear of terrorism sells politically and commercially. Your chances of dying from cancer, diabetes, heart attacks, or going brain dead from alzheimer are thousands of of times greater than a terrorist attack. Sure, we should be vigilant but we should also recognize reality.

Wikipedia reports that only 16% of the approximately 200,000 rapes a year in the USA are reported. How many classrooms are emptied because of the million women who get raped each year in the USA? Yet our American media growing trend is to focus on any potential terrorist related violence rather than rape.

Guess which country is #1 in the world in number of reported rapes so far this year?


——

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +2.54% ?up
NASDQ +2.97% down
S&P +2.95% down
Russell 2000 +3.81% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the month - The Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer -”BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Quotes from yesterday - “Churning. “More often than not a big battle like yesterday between bulls & bears means a reversal in direction. In this case that would be a rally….Overall think the BB/HFT’s are setting up for a rally.

We had one big rally in slightly above average, but decreased volume. (sorry for  ”?up” above – couldn’t clearly read the NASDQ volume chart) This is your typical rally in a BB/HFT controlled market.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar, of course, fell  a whopping -0.82%.  Because the BB?/HFT are obsessed with the inverse dollar/stock relationship, you’d naturally expect a huge drop in one gets a huge rise in the other = Bullish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rose +1.03% yesterday. After a 5 week rally the BDI has flattened out. Now starting to rise. = Neutral/Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO rose to +6.81 Now above Zero, & both 50 & 200DMA’s. Nowhere near +/- 60 so there is lots of wiggle room on each side, but momentum obviously with bulls. Therefore = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Monitor, a trader, in comments section of blog describes the MO forecasting tool best – “An observation – The McCellan Oscillator works!!!!! Plus or minus 60 seems to be a reasonable point where markets turn. If you like to take risks just go long or “buy the dip” when its under minus 40 and wait. Within a few weeks it will be at over 40 and sell”

It actually not all that cut and dry, but the general focus seems to be correct for a Long Term NEUTRAL market.

Mea Culpa - For long term investors there was a point over a week ago when the MO was below -60 & the Dow fell another 100 points which was a buy point.  Personally, as the record shows, I did buy some long positions TYH & SSO, but let the FEAR of loosing $ force me out of those positions with minor gains instead of holding onto those positions. My mistake.

Obviously another typical BB/HFT rally where short positions are forced to buy stocks to cover their positions. This gives added momentum to the rally.

September looks to be one roller coaster ride, now with an upside bias. There will be buying and selling points for both traders and investors. Stay tuned.

The obvious sub trend brought about by globalization is the economic deterioration of the US economically  vs the ecomomic rise of emerging markets and energy rich countries (peak oil mega trend – see Overview section of blog).

Will the emerging markets grow fast enough to pull the USA out of the Great Recession?

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions –  EWS (Singapore)

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark