Fight of the Century in Economics

Keynes vs Hayek

Solutions to our current economic crisis set to a music video. These two long dead nobel prize winning economists are the leaders of two major economic theories/solutions.

How this “Fight of the Century” plays out is going to dramatically impact YOUR life.

One significant point is the whole problem reached its apex because financial markets in the USA were unregulated.

However, both sides make excellent points in offering solutions. Some look at either side with Osama Been Forgotten religiosity.  Others with pure greed. Keep an open mind and enjoy.

After viewing – If you want more see site of producers

Football Players vs Teachers

Collective Bargaining  Question –

Why is it that many Republicans want to obliterate the collective bargaining rights of Teachers, Cops, Firefighters, and Unions, yet they say absolutely nothing about the NFL players who are collectively bargain for their rights?

{Thanks to Harry G, a frequent reader/contributor for this concept)


KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at dictionary




Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.57% down
NASDQ +0.09% down
S&P 500 +0.36% down
Russell 2000 +0.38% -



Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

  • Broken record – Another low volume melt up induced by the Fed’s injections of liquidity into stocks.
  • While individual earnings reports do impact each stock the High Frequency Traders and their super computers sill dominate the market by making up 70+% of all trades.
  • That USA GDP slowdown prediction that Bernanke announced negatively impacted world wide stock markets overnight.
  • Simple equation is falling dollar good for US stocks/exporters and bad for foreign stocks/exporters.
  • “Officials are unfazed over dollar slide” WSJ
  • The 2008 financial meltdown created a worldwide problem, especially for debtor nations. Spain, because of its size, is perhaps the greatest problem. Unemployment 21.3% and rising inflation at 3.5%.


Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

There are hundreds of forecasting tools, – These two tools have worked

When they stop working Investors411 will use other Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] Down a significant -0.54 yesterday. Another a three year low. Clear longer and shorter term bearish trend. For US stocks = Bullish
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] Rose to+ 40.01.  Getting up there but still = Neutral



Reading The Tea Leaves

What to watch today – Forget stocks and watch the dollar

  • UUP(Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - Usually the dollar is a contrarian indicator for stocks. Any major fall may give temporary help to US stocks, but a major breakdown also signal major structural problems with the USA

I know the Fed said it wasn’t worried about the dollar. (See comments yesterday on Bernanke’s press conference) But, the downside momentum has picked up over the last couple days and reached significant levels yesterday. Remember we are the world’s fiat currency and our currency is getting devalued.

  • The goodhelps US stocks, exporters, commodities and especially silver/gold.
  • The bad - Hurts foreign countries & raises commodity prices.
  • The ugly - Possible trade war – second great depression.

We have not reached crisis levels, but the direction is bad. Many see a huge storm coming and as a hedge are buying silver/gold

SLV is a juggernaut – It completely obliterated a climax sell off, moved 6% higher two days ago and marginally higher yesterday.

COMEX Silver is the official price of silver. Almost the same as SLV.  $50 is the key breakout level. If that level comes down and shorts are forced to cover, we could see another melt up.

Fear of the future is the fundamental driving this trade. You see this in US consumer confidence numbers and a recent gallop poll that show most Americans think we are in a depression/recession. Link below

55% of Americans see USA in Recession/Depression


Look for Paul R’s enlightened views on stocks ing the comment section of blog



See ”POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

  • Would buy more silver/gold on dip. -
  • The stock/sectors to be in – is those companies that export or make their money abroad. This is because the dollar is getting devalued.

Disclosure - I have personal  positions in REMX,  SLV (smaller), DGP, UWM, RJA (smaller) and manage a fund that has a 5 year position in GLD


Longer Term Outlook



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