Freedom Shouts

Libya Rebels Tripoli

Photo of Libyan Freedom Fighter – Huffington Post

“Libya will go down in history as the anti-Iraq.”

Comments from leaders around the world

Obviously an apparent victory for the Libyan people, the Arab Spring and Democracy.

Freedom from 41 years of dictatorial rule in Libya is at atipping point.” President Obama.

The rebels have reached the center of Tripoli (see blogger EW on right side of blog for links to streaming updates and other news.).Another major victory for the Arab Spring seems near as Gadhafi forces have seemingly crumbled after 7 months of battle

They’ve caught two of Gadhaffi’s son and a battle rages around Gadhaffi’s (there are a zillion ways to spell this guy’s name) compound. It isn’t over till the fat lady sings, but we have reached the tipping point.

Major points for USA

  • Libya - UN support. A true international coalition, No combat boots on the ground,  No American lives lost, A people’s revolution. Iraq - UN condemnation, Falsified intelligence, $ trillions in cost, Fear mongering, 10′s of thousands of American dead and wounded, Labeling American’s who protested the war as unpatriotic.
  • A major victory for Obama’s foreign policy.
  • A less imperialist foreign policy that gets results at a cost far less than far right’s fear mongering you’re either with us or against us.
  • Remember there is still a huge hunk of this country that believes all arabs are terrorists who hate freedom

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.57% big
NASDQ -1.62% big
S&P 500 -1.50% big
Russell 2000 -1.60% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Shorter Term Outlook.

day/days/week

  • Thursday’s meltdown technically confirmed by  Friday’s losses – Both in above average volume. Good news if you’re a bear. Bad news for bulls
  • US is just 2% away from joining Europe and much of the rest of the world’s Bear market. Definition of bear market is a 20% decline from highs. American markets, have their own problems, but Europe is certainly a ton of extra weight on the shoulders of the US and emerging markets.
  • Germany and wealthier Northern European countries are caught between a rock and a hard place. Bail out insolvent EU countries or leave the EU which would send their currency soaring and decimate their thriving exports. A lose lose situation.
  • Libya is great economic news because it means 2% of the world’s oil supply will be back on line. Libya produces sweet (translate – real high quality) crude oil. Since NATO is leading the charge in helping the Libyan rebels almost all European markets are up this AM.

  • The McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell to -42.82 (-30 somewhat oversold, -60 oversold, -90 OMG oversold)( +30 somewhat overbought, +60 overbought and +90 OMG oversold) Somewhat Oversold markets give the nod to the bulls. But we have not reached Oversold or OMG oversold. = Neutral/ Bullish
  • Reading The Tea Leaves - Let’s see how far the apparent victory in Libya and a somewhat oversold bounce can take us. It can’t change – kicking the can down the road on European debt.

Longer Term Outlook

weeks, month, months

  • Repeat - May 20th forecast still stands. The May 20th summer forecast has come to pass and now we wait to see the Fed’s next move.
  • The Fed’s promise of low interest rates through 2013, has helped, but the European bear market is spreading worldwide.  Libyan rebels apparent victory will help stocks today. But like the Fed’s O% interest rates till mid 2013 – it can only go so far.
  • The Fed is the single strongest entity that can act to change the economic situation. On one side we have Republicans calling the Fed “treasonous” and “counterfitters” and on the other a falling stock market.
  • Reading Tea Leaves - I believe we need another 5 to 10% on the downside before the Fed will intervene more strongly (QE #3 or something else) Perhaps this will come at the end of the week when there’s a meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming. LINK

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Current Positions

Below – Investors411  hypothetical portfolio that should outperform the S&P 500.

NLYAnnaly Capital Mgt. Ultra high dividend stock – It’s been shaky, but so far NLY has held up reasonably well through current stock market slide. NLY is the only position in Investors411 hypothetical portfolio

I still have a Put position to protect NLY. (strike price $17.00 for 3rd Friday in Sept) Also puts on other dividend stocks.

GLD (Long Gold ETF) Obviously a MAJOR mistake to sell and take meager +3% profits back at $157. Like a millions of other people who see worldwide economic problems ahead – waiting to buy another dip.

If/when the MO low enough I will buy some YSL #5 stocks for our hypothetical portfolio

Disclaimer - Personally I own  a group of dividend stocks including NLY, SNH, KMP, MO, HTD, T, ABV & AGNC and a few other smaller positions I have puts on about half of dividend stocks I own. I buy everything in the hypothetical Investors411 portfolio. I also ow SDS & TZA (ETF’s that double and triple short the market) as hedges. Buying some more hedges (TZA) at open. For those that do options – I bought a November 19th call on GLD for $355 at 191.

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Long Term Outlook (for US Economy)

BEARISH

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Long Term Outlook (for US stocks)

CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH*

*Investors411 has 5 different long term valuations - BULLISH, CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, NEUTRAL, CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH, and BEARISH.

Everything written in BROWN is a repeat from a previous day

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

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