Rodney Dangerfield/Barak Obama

No Respect

Barak Obama’s and Democrats accomplishments. Not in any specific order

  • Pure technical analysis or the facts – Stocks have gone up @ +27% under Obama they went down over -20% under 8 years of Bush In fact we reached a low of 666 on the benchmark S&P 500 in the first few months of Obama’s presidency. Hardly his fault. So instead of using 850 (approx. date of S&P when he took over) the stock market went up +77% under Obama. Yet CNBC (the financial channel) and most of Wall Stret collectively hates this man. But for those of us with investments the facts are the facts. WE MADE MONEY with a Democrat congress and Obama and not with Republicans. This blog is called Investors411 – the bottom line matters.
  • The Obama Stimulus worked. The biggest part ($288 billion) of the stimulus (almost 37%) was a TAX CUT. For all the Republicans screaming the stimulus was a total failure – I thought you liked tax cuts. The second biggest part of the $787 billion stimulus was benefits to medicare, laid off workers and state governments (keeping cops, teachers and firefighters in their jobs). For a more complete stimlus list link here Congressional Budget Office estimates between 1.7 & 3.3 million jobs added
  • Jobs –  When Obama came into office we were hemorrhaging over -700,000 jobs a month. Everyone said this was the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression – That depression took us decades to work ourselves into stability. In under two years we are at  @ o% jobs lost a month. Quite an achievement considering what dire straights the US and the world was in. This jobs growth is obviously linked to the stimulus.
  • Health Care - You may not love the reform but no President has accomplished major reform of any of the sacred cows – Social Security, Medicare, Military, raising Taxes to balance the budget.  Health Care insures almost all Americans, and the non partisan CBO estimated that the amount SAVED in the first 10 years would be $143 billion and over a trillion in 20 years. First figure revised down to $23 billion SAVED and 30 million more covered. Money Saved, More coverage = Accomplishment
  • Saved us from a “Second Great Depression. Remember when Obama took office the world was “standing on the precipice” Stocks, home prices, and job loss were in a death spiral. The Fed had already reached the lowest rate it could have 2 months before Obama took office. Stocks have roared back and job losses and home prices stabalized.
  • If you’d like a list of 108 of Obama’s specific accomplishments LINK HERE

The problem Obama has is twofold – Its a whole hell of a lot easier to sell fear and Americans want it NOW. Long term objective critical thinking and rational debate is a temperament and skill many Americans lack.

Tomorrow – Where Obama has failed

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.39% up
NASDQ +0.24% flat
S&P -0.35% flat
Russell 2000 -0.38% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

QE2

US Stock Markets -

The dollar got toasted again and stocks again lost minor ground. Now the dollar is right below major resistance. If the dollar moves up and breaks through the resistance barrier it should have a negative impact on stocks.

What’s everyone looking at –  The possibility of the Fed Watering down the QE2 (Quantitative Easing Part 2) Here’s a guy sometimes called “the bond king,” Bill Gross whose in no uncertain terms hates QE2. Remember bonds and stocks compete for your money.

What Will the Fed do? What Will the Fed do? What Will the Fed do?

The Trend – You’d think the fact that money has been flowing out of mutual funds for 25 straight weeks would collapse any market, but as you remember our mantra has been the Black Box/High Frequency Traders Rule. Ma & Pa are leaving stocks. and stocks are dominated by large firms looking for imbalances and running artificial algorithms that have almost nothing to do with a companies valuation.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose a significant +0.58% yesterday. Dollar currently moving sideways within a range (see below). Now right below a resistance level. Trend for stocks = Neutral/Bearish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China, emerging markets, exporting countries] Rose a minor +0.22% yesterday. BDI now consolidating after bull run that began in June. Longer term Pattern= Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] Fell to -24.81% yesterday. Six week tend (see chart) is looking bearish but location still = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves.

Repeat from past Investors411 -“Any move in UUP (tracking ETF for dollar) above 22.7 resistance is trouble for stocks. Any move below 22.18 support level is good for stocks. A breakout of either the support or resistance level will tell you who wins the dollar war.” UUP rose +0.13 and closed at at 22.65. This is just below a bullish breakout for the dollar which would be bearish for stocks.

Almost any technical analyst who looks at the chart of the UUP would pick out the huge volume increase and say – UUP or the US dollar has formed a bottom. There’s going to be a rally off this base for the dollar = bad for stocks

Almost any fundamental analysts would say the Fed is about to launch QE2 (see past Investors411) and that huge print and dump of $$$ will drive the dollar lower. = good for stocks

So lets use the MO as the deciding factor – The MO has developed over the last six weeks a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.  All we need is another slight drop (@5 points) to go from +60 to – 30. This is bearish, However, -24.81 (the current level of the MO) is starting to get close to -60 or oversold levels.

So if /when we have an up side breakout of the dollar and stocks are negatively impacted perhaps it will be a relatively short toasting for stocks.

Bottom Line = All eyes on Fed and how big QE2 is going to be.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions)

  • EWS (Singapore)
  • SSO (2x what S&P does) Sold 1/2 of SSO for 42.28 An almost 3% gain. I was simply not watching a couple days ago when SSO was up 5+%. On these ETF’s that double and triple what major indexes do I like to take 1/2 profits at over 5% and let the rest ride. Put stop at 40.9 or what SSO was bought for.

Bulls are getting edgy

Again from previous days – “Not making any specific move until dollar breaks out of its range. I would look at a breakout higher for the dollar, and a corresponding fall in stocks and the MO to oversold as a buying opportunity for long term investors.”

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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