.

Hope for the Future

.

.

Teachers/Heroes

.

Friday’s employment report had one critical fact,

The number of private sector jobs

since the start of 2009 is back in the black

.

The big job losses are coming

in the public sector & its major component is

Teachers

.

Just the Facts

.

Public employment chart Clinton / Bush / Obama

.

Note – The blip higher in @ month 16 is due to census workers. Job losses are at the Federal, State and Local level.

.

Public Sector Jobs Created

Clinton = +625,000

Bush = +825,oo0

Obama = -600,000

.

American Austerity

.

Paul Krugman - New York Times Blog

“If public employment had grown the way it did under Bush, we’d have

1.3 million more government workers,

and probably an unemployment rate of

7 percent or less

..


.

  • As Obama’s stimulus program ran out, so did local funding for state,federal and local public officials.
  • The USA was already falling relative to the rest of the world in education even before this.

.

Swimming Without a Suit

.

.

Tom Friedman’s

2009 Editorial on education

.

“From 1950 to 1980… we still had the lead in education…now we are 24th in science and 25th in math out of 30 countries.”

.

.

Our hope to regain our leadership in education has been crushed since 1980 Republican takeover.

Grover Norquist who wants to reduce  government to the size of a bathtub and drown it, has made Republicans, including Romney, take no new takes pledges even for the wealthiest Americans

.

Our stock market gains 100%

in the last 4 years.

Yet the right trys to take away even the right

of teachers (cops and firefighters etc)

to have collective bargaining.

.

Our Future

.

.

Is there a bright future

if we keep forcing

austerity on education?

.

Solid editorial and inspiration for above – Public Job Losses And GOP Chutzpah by Alec McGillis.

.

.

*******************

.

STOCKS

.

.

Trends

.

.

Headlines

.

  • Greece takes center stage. Huge unexpected toasting by anti austerity voters. Stocks in Greece down 7% this AM. The ruling center left/right party got only 32% of the vote.
  • Most troubling for stocks short term is the rise of far right (pro nationalist) and left groups who are opposed to the sever austerity measures.
  • Since 2008 when austerity measures first started Greece’s employment rate has exploded from 8% to 21%

.

.

How the Hell is a country

supposed to get the

revenue to pay its deb if you

increase unemployment

by over 160%

.

Massive Austerity

creates more problems

than it solves.

.

  • Spanish 10 year Bond Rates [411 uses this as a critical measurement of European/world stock market stability] are remaining relatively stabile considering the news. Yield up to 5.81% at 6:00 AM – Not near 6.0% danger zone. So there is NO big panic.
  • German market down 2% this AM.
  • McCellan Oscillator [411 very successful technical tool in market direction - Tops/bottoms] fell to -27.97.  Range for last 6 months is -100 to +60.  MO in middle of range so lots of room for MO to move up or DOWN =  NEUTRAL

.

____________

.

Reading The Tea Leaves

.

..

From Friday – “Major Question remains

Can the US market Rally despite the problems

in just about every other major world market?

.

Answer in US stock market today

will probably be NO

.

.

The Cavalry/Fed/Central Banks

.

The long term stability trend

in Europe is worsening.

.

Who knows how extensive giant “too big to fail” banks are involved in the unregulated opaque derivatives market on European/Greek debt?

.

You can emphasis

balanced growth/jobs

or austerity

.

Austerity is leading to chaos

.

Too many times the can gets kicked down the road in Europe. Each deal on debt according to the voters is too structured in favor of banks or the holders of that debt.


Certainly a liquidity injection by our Fed would help. So would restructuring debt and providing jobs. Who knows how far too big to fail banks can bend? Who knows how far the opaque derivatives market is over leveraged?

.

*************************

.

Paul’s Corner

.

.

Short Paul’s Corner today, from posts I made this weekend in the comments section for your review:

Your Stock List week one results: LINK

– Steve Gerritz’s Blog:

The rally that began on Dec.19th 2011 has run out of steam. The market is now going sideways in a very choppy manner.

http://stephengerritz.blogspot.com/2012/05/daily-market-snapshot-05-04-2012.html?

- Ron Brown’s weekend video market report:

The NASDAQ was down 2.25% yesterday, but it not yet broken support at

the 2950 level.  Until support is broken at the close, a lower high is

not in place. In spite of the negative day, there were some winners

among the Box Stocks.

Ron does good chart analysis on AAPL and points out a few new stocks to add to the watch list.

LINK

- I often suggest reading Ian Woodward’s latest blog.  Ian posted a doozie this weekend.  He hands you the nuts and bolts of where this market is, where it may be going and what you need to watch for. This is one of Ian’s best and it’s brought to you in living color with every bit of wit and wisdom Ian has to offer.

If you are the least bit serious about your grandchildren’s inheritance this is required reading!

LINK

All of the above for education only!

.

*******************

.

Spanish Bond yield over 6.0% =  NEUTRAL

Under 6.0% = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Oil Prices fell another 4% Friday – Outlook Downgraded to NEUTRAL

.

Longer Term Outlook

3 months+

.

NEUTRAL

.

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISK & POTENTIAL LOSS OF PRINCIPLE

CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR  ERRORS.

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