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Remembering John Lennon

This is the 30th anniversary of John Lennon’s death.

Great editorial with 6 fabulous songs & interviews – Starting with

I Want To Hold Your Hand

Obama’s Compromise

Obviously the capitulation to the oligarchy and extending tax cuts for the rich makes your/my face turn red, causes  smoke to blow out of your ears and turns your voice into a lasting primal scream.

But what happens to American working middle class on January 1 and our economy when the tax cuts end and we stand at 9.8% unemployment? What happens to the economy each month without the following.

  • Everyone  earning under 200k has their taxes eliminated.
  • Unemployed former working Americans will NOT get extended benefits
  • a 2% pay role tax for those earning under $106,800 will not happen.

A new more Republican congress takes office in January and each month we go on without some sort of compromise

  • The employment figures will grow
  • Without stimulus the fragile US economy’s GDP will shrink.
  • You know politics – a mass of finger pointing, blame and fear mongering
  • Yes its blackmail, and perhaps in the long term the wrong thing to do. but lives of those less fortunate than ours get impacted in the short term.

What to do? What to do? What to Do?


STOCKS

Investors411 tries to keep it basic.

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.12% down
NASDQ +0.41% down
S&P +0.37% down
Russell 2000 -0.05% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Politics – The Tax compromise – is playing a role in stocks and the economy.  If a compromise does NOT work out this means middle class will NOT get a cut in taxes, Unemployed will NOT get extensions, a 2% pay role tax for those earning under $106,800. cut will NOT happen. All these measures will, be HURT the economy, jobs growth, and HOPE. That HURT will grow each month nothings done. (see above)

Stocks - Globalized American companies can always grow  through emerging markets and a falling dollar.  No compromise means a further economic downturn and a weaker dollar.  This means more Fed quantitative easing to fix things and perversely - probably an improving stock market.

CAUTION - There is one massive economic bubble building with artificial stimulation. Party Now, because another explosion is on the way.

The second major problem of uncertainty facing stocks is rising yields on the Treasury bonds. (see below) Rising yields can quickly turn into higher interest rates. and that’s not good for socks

Significant Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

Just one Index stand out today

The 10 Year T Bill – Confirmed yesterdays +7.16% explosion higher by rising another +2.24% higher yesterday. The move higher over the last two weeks is ominous, but we have a ways to go before we hit 2010 and 2009 highs when the yield peaked at about 4.0%. Yesterday’s close was 32.36%.

From Yesterday – The rise in the T bills has taken a bite out of the lower interest rate/weaker dollar trade that has fueled this market.  Best read of the tea leaves is that this is a temporary move. Today is the confirmation day of yesterday’s 10 year T bill explosion higher.

This shows investors moving into T bonds. Usually this means they move out of stocks to go into bonds.

  • The dollar – basically flat = Neutral
  • The BDI fell but is in consolidation pattern = Neutral
  • McClellan Oscillator at -7.64 - Neutral

Reading The Tea Leaves

Political right now indecisive (see above)  = long term bearish

The lighter volume means the BB/HFT have more control. When they dominate we usually see bulls rule. = bullish.

There are  a lot of neutral indicators, but todays a big Fed POMO pump and dump day. So flat or higher stocks most likely.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. These are, hopefully,  longer term positions

When trades are actually made in ETF’s they are listed in comments section of blog (almost always near open or 1/2 hour before close)

  • EEM - (Emerging Markets ETF)
  • #1UWM – small cap stocks – 1/2 position
  • #2 UWM -
  • DGP – Sold at 41.38 for a a bit under -3% loss.  This broke a string of about 10 straight winning ETF trades with 3 to 14% gains (I’m guesstimating – will go back and check later for accurate figure when I have more time)

Coming up next week I’m the treasurer of a large non profit and since their holdings are public information I’ll list them for you. (not amounts). This will give you an idea of what a conservative,long term portfolio looks like.  This is something I’ve done once or twice each year.

From Yesterday – Plan to buy back in after consolidation of perhaps a few days. Also the 10 year T bill settles has to down.

May try to sneak in a small leveraged long position (UMW) on a dip this AM.  Think YSL may have some less overbought positions.

Look for Paul R’s always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION section of blog for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including “YOUR Stock List.” - I’m sure Paul will remind you yesterday and since its inception YSL is kicking butt

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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