India

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

India, India, India

Globalization is the Mega Trend and its reality behind jobs growth exploding higher in India and drifting lower in The USA. Our GDP just came in revised significantly down Friday to 1.6% for the last quarter. India’s GDP just came in at a phenomenal  of 8.8%. “Manufacturing” was cited as the #1 growth area.

Cash Rich & Jobs Poor

According to Talking Heads on CNBC, The financial channel, American companies are sitting on $1,240,000,000,000 of cash. Each Talking head , sometimes breathlessly, asks CEO’s what are you going to do with all that cash , buy back stock or buy another company?

What about investing some of that hundreds of billions on American workers? Nope. CNBC doesn’t even mention them because all the jobs go to China & India and/or another emerging markets where the cost of  labor was @ 1/20th that of the USA in 2008.

New Jersey – Whose Lying?

This could be about your typical corrupt politician like (D) Maxine Waters and Charles Rangle (“allegedly”) feathering  their own nests. But that’s typical.

In New Jersey it seems that the newly elected governor (R) Chris Christie or his appointed, now fired Education Commissioner Bret Schundler  have lost out on “$400,000,000  in federal money” for education in their state. More here

Whose lying? From story it looks like Christie. But the real losers are the teachers & children of New Jersey.

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KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -1.39 down
NASDQ -1.56 down
S&P -1.47% down
Russell 2000 -2.44% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the monthThe Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades. Jim Cramer – “BB/HFT make up 80% of trades.”

Stop for a moment and think how radically altered stock trading has become. Example – The HFT’s and their super computers often find an imbalance in trades between the # of shorts on stocks in an index and the actual price of an ETF that shorts the same index perhaps by a factor of 2. They execute a trade and get out a few seconds minutes later when the short ETF comes back into balance. They do this across currency markets, commodities and just about anything.

In the long run fundamentals are going to matter, but the old Wall Street saying is now more true than ever before -” The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” The reason for this being even truer now is the BB/HFT traders.

They have an enormous advantage – so why trade or invest? In the longer term fundamentals are going to win out. Realities like – Emerging markets are growing faster than the USA or stocks become so oversold/overbought they run out of buyers/sellers does matter.

Unfortunately, with the BB/HFT’s speed everything moves a whole lot faster than it used to and windows to invest in with some hope of a decent longer term reward happen a half dozen times a year if you only go long & perhaps a dozen times a year if you also go short.

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Anything daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose +0.30%. and closed above its 50DMA. For Stocks = Bearish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Again rose a marginal +o.33%. This gives some stability to the 5 week long rally after two down days in a row. 5 week rally trend is still in place, but not entirely back on track = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell  to -42.64. Our #1 Buy sell Indicator again approaching oversold or buy. But still = NEUTRAL

Reading Tea Leaves

Investors411 has beat the drums for the concept that stocks,the dollar & commodities are all moving in greater harmony because of the BB/HFT’s 80% domination of stocks and their involvement in currency and commodity exchanges. Therefore UUP (ETF that tracks dollar bulls) was suggested as the interday ETF to watch as an inverse indicator of stock market direction.

Our # 1 forecast tool now continues to be the MO. But its the dollar that clearly leading stocks “like a dog on a leash.”

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions - Small positions in EWS (Singapore) USO (commodity-Oil)

Traders – Got stopped out of TYH at 24.98 – the price it was bought for.  The dollar was rising (UUP – the ETF) and stocks had formed a series of lower highs and lower lows so it was a no brainer to get out.

Investors – Our #1 forecast tool, the MO, is again approaching oversold territory. While -43 is not yet turned into -60 or -80 its headed in that direction. Investors411 believes this is “Buy the Dip territory,” where stocks get so oversold they have to take at least a short term bounce.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

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