The Dynamic Duo – Petraeus & Bush or is that Obama?
The Afghanistan Quicksand
Please tell Tea Party Patriots the three single largest reasons the deficit has grown over the last decade are
- The 2008 meltdown and consequential bailout/stimulus.
- The Bush tax cuts
- The Iraq/Afghanistan war spending and consequences.
General McChrystal yesterday became the fall guy for the failed surge stratagey in Afghanistan. In effect his insubordination was like taking a hit for the military industrial complex. The new chief in Afghanistan is General Petraeus. Petraeus/Bush planned the first troop surge in Afghanistan. Petraeus/Obama surges two and three. All have failed But American media is dares not state this reality.
Remember when American media was falling all over itself because American caualties were down due to a surge in Iraq? Now that casualties are up with the 3rd Afghan surge you hear almost nothing. Interesting!?
OK Obama looks tougher because McChrystal got canned. Big deal. Has this changed anything? Pehaps - Petraeus and Obama get to dump blame for their failed Afghan policy on McChrystal. The military Industrial complex grows stronger as does the call for more violence (deficit spending) as the solution.
Informed Comment blog by Professor Cole paint a picture of today’s Iraq (where less American’s are dying) as a failed state with @ 4 million refugee’s, a hung government,(elections were last winter) and an ongoing Shia/Sunni civil war killing at least 300 people per month.
Your deficit dollars continued to be poured into both sink holes.
KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)
If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary
AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!
Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes
Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis
Repeat – ” Any analysis of stocks has become an analysis of what the “Black Boxes” of huge institutions with their high frequency trades & computer algorithms are doing.”
The new homes data for last month was much worse than expected. Worst fall in 4 decades - 33% Everyone expected bad numbers because stimulus was withdrawn, but the news drove the Dow over 100 points near the open. The fact that stocks recovered to slight losses in , of course light volume, is Bullish
Technically the fact that stocks held onto Tuesday’s more significant losses is Bearish
The Fed announcement was nothing new – Interest rates are going to stay between o & o.25% for a long time & Europe has hurt things here.
The dollar started out the day higher and fell. This is what the Black Boxes saw and the reason stocks moved higher throughout the day. Right now, the Black Boxes have focued with lazar like intensity on currency fluctuations.
- McClellan Oscillator (MO) fell a smidge to -2.25 [+60 or above = Overbought = sell. -60 or below = Oversold = buy]. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. – & Investopedia on – How the MO works.NEUTRAL
- US Dollar – The dollar fell yesterday -0.30% [Anything over +/- @0.50 is significant.] Mantra - right now The Dollar Rules is very important. Dollar up = stocks down and visa versa. The one day the trend = Bullish
- BDI - The Baltic Dry Index (Measures cost of shipping – Higher costs good = more being shipped. BDI is in free fall from @4200 to 2515 yesterday. This is a huge -39% drop in 5+ weeks. Often a leading indicator for stocks. Now at/just above a major support level. Rate of fall declined again yesterday. This index often makes slow changes, so diminished decline (@40% less) could be the start of a reversal. However, clearly long term = Bearish
The Positions Section = latest buys and sells - These are positions I actually own – Updated over weekend
Have not yet had a chance to Update over last weekend but there are NO positions held at this time
From Yesterday – “DGP is ETF that is double long gold. Investors411 plans to buy the dip in this ETF.”
Big Black Storm Clouds - Every major stock indexes 50 day moving average is heading lower. Right now it would take a pretty massive rally to change that direction. Every “Old School” technical interpretation of this is Bearish.
However, Currency markets are the dog that’s wagging the stock market tail. If the dollar falls stocks will rise. Black Box traders control what’s happening not “old school” analysis, so for now the long term outlook for US stocks is still NEUTRAL
CAUTION – At some point the Black Boxes are going to stop looking at the economic relativity between Europe and the USA. Unfortunately, when this happens the realization they come to may be the USA is growing weaker too, just not as fast as Europe.
Long Term Outlook = NEUTRAL
AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING