Chicken Little getting ready – From the Disney Movie

Is the Economic Sky Falling?

There’s some pretty positive results from economic measures taken so far. Employment figures have turned, stocks have rocketed higher and we avoided a second depression. But there are those that see things getting a whole lot worse rapidly.

Here’s a relative credible analyst Chris Martenson who believes the economic meltdown is upon us and how to prepare for it. He has lots of valid points, but I don’t share his degree of severity

Yankee Bob Is Back

In the comments section there’s a well thought out debate on Libya.  But just before baseball season,  Yankee Bob launches another editorial.

You can read Bob’s editorial and others in yesterday’s comment section (scroll down) An excerpt and a suggested link below.

“Libya is important but not nearly as much as the the Rights Jihad against worker rights and what is unfolding at Fukeshima.”
Yankee Bob
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03…

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KISS & Stocks

(Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

DOUBLE CHECK ALL DATA, I MAKE MORE THAN GRAMMAR MISTAKES

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Index Percentage Volume
Dow +0.67% up
NASDQ +0.96% down
S&P 500 +0.71% up
Russell 2000 +0.94% -

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Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record - 6 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

BUBBLE-ICIOUSInvestors411 term for the stock market – We are all riding on the outside of an ever expanding &  Central Bank manipulated liquidity stock bubble. See Investors411 STRATEGY section for more

  • Chart above from the St. Louis fed itself shows the amount of liquidity (BASE ) that has been injected into the US economy. That’s over +2.4 Trillion
  • With a growing supply of money like this, and zero % interest rates its almost inevitable that US stocks grow in value. (reasons for this listed in past Investors411 for many moons)
  • Almost every credible technical analyst has called for a major correction weeks and months ago.  This increase in money supply has trumped their predictions and trumped some major black swan events. Yes, everything is bubblicious and the longer it stays that way the bigger the pop at the end.
  • Take Advantage of This While it Last. Fed POMO is over June 30th and who knows if we will have another. It’s possible at some stage that investors/hedge funds/brokerage houses will front run this number and sell.
  • The major sign for a bubble bursting would be the dollar collapsing or your typical high volume climax run.
  • Here’s a relative credible analyst (above) Chris Martenson who believes the economic meltdown is upon us and how to prepare for it. He has lots of valid points, but I don’t share his degree of severity.
  • Oh yea, another low volume rally market manipulated rally yesterday.  Bad news – Poor consumer sentiment was the spark for a rally.

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Shorter Term Forecasting Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD) [Any daily price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar usually moves inversely to stocks]   The dollar rose a wee bit +0.16. Bearish longer term pattern still in place, but it started  a four day bull run that’s stalled out over the last two days.  For stocks = Bullish/Neutral
  • McClellan Index(MO) [The very rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks .] MO fell back to +25.34. Over past three months The MO has had problems getting over +30. = Neutral/ Bearish

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Reading The Tea Leaves

MO is telling us that we are getting close to an  overbought resistance area (+30). However the dollar is the perhaps the key metric to watch. Falling dollar =rising US stocks.

What to watch todayMarket movers

  • USO - ETF for oil - Oil up = stocks down - Now back above $100. - Headlines from Libya.
  • UUP - (Tracking ETF for dollar) Remember - The dollar is a contrarian indicator. Bad dollar = good stocks
  • AAPL – Trading below 50 day MA is bearish.
  • Japan Rector Developments

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Positions

The POSITIONS Section at top of the blog is a link to 4 different portfolios. It’s full of investment idea. Below is the actively managed portfolio #3 – Aggressive ETF Trading – To follow this and Portfolio #4 Your Stock List keep an eye on the daily blog and the comment section.

(I do manage 6 accounts that have other positions).

Current ETF Positions. (oldest held positions listed first)(see comments section where all trades are first announced.

  • UWM. (2x long small cap stocks) Sold 1/2 for +5% gain. Remainder up +10% now. Sell order  for original UWM position is a 5% trailing stop
  • A Hedge – Day two = UWM +1.88% & EWV + 0.22% day #2. – Even though day two has put this trade 2% in the black I’m considering ending it. Japan’s central bank is manipulating the currency, with the help of other central banks and this mitigates the impact. Plus I’m feeling guilty over making money over a what I think is going to be a worse disaster.

ETF’s currently Under Consideration.

UCO -(2x oil prices) Why not, its also a hedge against higher gas prices. -

REMX (Rare Earth ETF) - Really believe this a good long term holding. Up 3% yesterday on verge of breakout. A risk, but, this area because of limited supply and big demand is going to outperform almost all other sectors. A buy.

DGP – (ETF is 2X gold) also SLV (silver). Breakout on worries of future inflation – Gold is moving inversely to the dollar - Dipping has my interest today, but still too far above its 50 day moving average to buy.

DBC - (Commodities ETF) For a more complete list of commodity ETF’s see POSITIONS listed at top of blog  DBC is tilted to energy.  A good alternative would be DJP that is more agriculture and metals -

RJA (Agriculture commodities Index)An ETN, not an ETF.

UWM (2x small cap stocks) TNA (3X small cap stocks)

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Look for Paul R’s (Paul is at an investment seminar this week) always enlightening remarks on stocks and sectors in the comments section of the blog. See POSITION“ section of blog (at top of page) for lists of potential stocks & ETF’s including ”YOUR Stock List.”

Longer Term Outlook - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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