Mea Culpa – They changed the Cancer Sexy Bra site on me. Link HERE

Israel & Iran

Let’s forget the Islamophobia that’s enveloped the USA. The fear monger’s couldn’t even tell you that the two largest Islamic nations are democracies or know nothing of the patriotic fireworks and 4th of July parades in Dearborn MI (40% Moslem).

The #1 predictable  foreign policy problem is the fanatic religious zealots in Iran possessing nuclear bomb capability. In June Secretary of War (sic) Gates said this will happen in 1 to 3 years. “To Israel that means 9 months .” [From a must read article in Atlantic]

Yes, the bombing of the nuclear facilities in Iran will create a whole dynamic of new problems, but if I were an Israeli I’d toast the nuclear facilities just like they did in Syria. The questions are when, and what will the US do? For latest odds see Intrade (bid 25.2% ask at 30.0% by 12/31/11 and increasing since last time I looked – click on current events)

  • Jews were powerless to stop Hitler & 6 million died, “Never Again.”
  • One or two atomic bombs would decimate Israel.
  • Iran is the most virulent anti Israel nation on the planet and look what they did to their own freedom loving Moslems after the religious zealots stole the election. Trusting Iran current government is laughable.
  • Israel can completely shutdown Iran in Cyber Warfare like they did to Syria when they destroyed its potential nuclear reactor. Russia did this to Georgia in their war. Richard Clarke has a book out on Cyber War. (Thanks to Robert H for info on this)
  • Obviously, it would be better if Iran stopped producing more weapons grade material NOW.
  • It would be better for Israel if the USA and  the world if we toasted them first. Might not be better for USA.
  • Remember in this Iranians are Persian not Arab and they are Shia not Sunni Moslems.

This is Obama’s problem, The Israeli’s are coming. The window on a diplomatic solution is collapsing. I wish this were not so, but its reality.

Bottom Line for Investors – When Iran ‘s potential nuclear bomb making sites get hit, stocks are going to fall off a cliff. Oil prices will rise dramatically. (part of the reason Investors411 has started to buy oil commodity ETF’s on dips). GLD on dips is the #2 play.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow -0.56% down
NASDQ +0.04% down
S&P 500 -0.37% down
Russell 2000 -0.03% -

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500

Mantra for the monthThe Black Box/High Frequency Traders BB/HFT control the majority of trades.

Stocks held onto/confirmed Thursday’s major move down. Earnings season is behind us and economic news dominates.

Small investors are still leaving the stock market in large numbers ($32.7 billion domestically YTD) and fleeing to safety of bonds. This means that the BB/HFT’s (the uber wealthy) are dominating/manipulating even more.

Most technical analysts are hyping 1070 as THE support level for the benchmark S&P 500. We traded below it  Friday but closed at 1071.69. = Bullish

Significant Indexes

  • The Dollar (USD)  [Anything price move over +/- 0.50 is significant. Dollar moves inversely to stocks] The dollar rose +0.74% yesterday.  Almost two week trend higher. Now facing resistance at 50DMA = Bearish
  • The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [measures cost of world trade. Also proxy for China & emerging markets] Rally +4.22% Friday. 5 week Rally trend is strong = Bullish
  • McClellan Index – (MO) [The rough guideline is over +60 = overbought market = sell positions or short stocks, & -60 = oversold market = buy stocks.] MO fell to -34.69 Starting to approach oversold, but still= Neutral

Reading Tea Leaves

The good news is the BDI (see above) in a strong 5 week rally. Very positive for economies of emerging markets. Also, we did hold onto major support levels on Friday.

The bad news is, even though emerging markets are rapidly catching up, the Big Kahuna is the USA. Stimulus funds/additional Obama tax cuts are running out. Without any additional stimulus to small business its going to get worse economically in USA.

Even more importantly for stocks the dollar is rising despite poor economic news here. The +0.74% rise Friday is too big to ignore. Unless, there’s some sort of reversal early this week Hemet Kitty turns into Danger Will Robinson Danger Danger Translation for first time readers – bad to really bad.

Index to watch is the dollar (ETF – UUP)

Of course if the MO drops down far enough a decent trading opportunity will exist. See YOUR Stock List Below.


*YOUR Stock List*

These stocks are chosen on their technical basis first. They must also have a fundamental growth story that would make investors want to buy in the future. Many are more influenced by major mega trends than others. YOU have sent in these stocks and both Paul R & I have gone over them, weeded out some and added a few. Explanations are purposefully very short and assume you have some knowledge of fundamentals and technicals. Paul will probably have additional information in comments section.  I have tried to make this as simple as possible.

Additional notes

  • Ideal conditions to buy would be when the MO is overbought (@=60 or greater).
  • Ticker Symbols are linked to charts. DMA = Day Moving Average.
  • All stocks chosen must be outperforming major US indexes.
  • This is a traders market and NOT safe for buy & hold investors (It’s possible some trades might turn into longer term trades)
  • If you buy any stock you need to know when you’re getting out  & how to use stops

BIDU – [Baidu]

  • Fundamentals (F) – China’s Google.
  • Technicals (T) – Broke out to new high 8/1 and currently fallen to back to breakout point. Not overextended from 50DMA. Has potential.

AAPL – [Apple]

  • F – The innovative top dog of American Tech companies
  • T – Closer to bottom of 4 monthlong consolidation pattern
  • T – More comfortable if AAPL was above its 50 DMA

PCLN – [Priceline]

  • F – You’ve seen the Captain Kirk adds. Great earnings report
  • T – Breakout gap higher in big volume and still climbing. Too over extended right now from 50DMA.

F – [Ford]

  • F – Didn’t take bailout $. Good but #2 to GM in China.
  • T – Fallen back recently and is directly at support/50DMA.
  • T – Probably will build a base at this level

SAM [Boston Beer Company]

  • F  - Great Beer – Barr’s favorite. (Wish I knew what beer Chinese drank because they just surpasses the USA as the world’s overall #1 beer drinking nation)
  • T -After major rally run near the bottom in a three month consolidation pattern.
  • T – Another stock that would be in a better position to buy if it was above its 50 DMA

GMCR [Green Mountain Coffee]

  • F – Great tasting Vermont based Coffee
  • 3 month rally to new high in moderate volume and has just pulled back into consolidating pattern. Now somewhat over extended from 50DMA,

HMIN [Hotels Inns & Hotels Management]

  • F – China based hotels
  • T – 5 month long rally. Near new high. Just a bit over extended from 50 DMA.

SWKS [Skyworks Solutions]

  • F – Leading semiconductor company that benefits from trend to high end multi band width mobile phones
  • T – Since 2009 in an uptrend. Last 3 months higher highs and higher lows with big volume up days. Dipped and is now moving along its 50 DMA
  • Like to see upward some upward movement before buying

RADS [Radiant Systems]

  • F – Global provider of innovative tech to hospitality, entertainment and retail industries (China penetration?)
  • T – After 4 month consolidation big break out with volume on earnings report. Has dipped & now at new high. Bit overextended right now.
  • Paul  will have some interesting posts on this

VCI [Valassis Communications]

  • F – Market and media services in America’s & Europe. Think coupons
  • T – Had a great 6 month run,but for last three months just marginally better than US Indexes and echoed their performance.
  • Too volatile/risky to buy now

UPS [United Parcel Service]

  • F – Huge package delivery service with exploding growth in emerging markets.
  • T – Not a major mover, but solidly outperforming US Indexes. After move higher looks to be consolidating over last month. A bit overextended from 50DMA

IMAX [Imax Corp]

  • F - Innovative 3 D technology & moving into China market.
  • T – Big drop from May to July. Reached short term high on 8/1 and since formed lower high and Friday a lower low.
  • T – Wait for it to form a base.

UFS [Domtar]

  • F – Paper producer /packaging
  • T – After rally has formed a three week base. Has potential

Paul will have additional information on many of these. So check out the comments section.

Positions

The  Positions Section link to latest & former buys and sells  - These are positions I actually own

Current positions - EWZ (Brazil) & EWS (Singapore) & USO (commodity-Oil) The later was bought Friday at 32.75.

Long Term Outlook – NEUTRAL

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

  • Share/Save/Bookmark