Football lover Karl Marx

Football and Karl Marx

Football is America’s #1 sport. The Superbowl where (economically shattered) New Orleans Saints beat another small market team the powerful Indianapolis Colts, was watched by more viewers here than any other American sporting event.

Football reins supreme because there is parity in the league or socialism. There is a market cap which no team can go over in payment for all combined players, and a draft for new players where the worst teams choose first.  This is a socialist goose that has been laying GOLDEN revenue eggs for the NF. Unlike baseball that’s hurting for revenue and is in decline because of a less balanced revenue program. In Baseball any team outside major media markets has a far less chance at winning. Each stadium gets packed in football, while only a half dozen do in baseball. Karl Marx would clearly be a football fan.

Now owners and players both want to change the system in a rush of unregulated capitalist greed. So if anyone asks you if socialism works in the USA – you say it sure does – its called the National Football League. Socialism Makes Everbody Rich. Why change it?

Elections – Iceland/Iraq

Two major elections took place late last week

  • Iceland – Remember Iceland was perhaps the country worst hit in 2008 meltdown because their shadow banks believed in Greed based capitalism. Over 98% of the voters there voted to renegotiate loans of foreign investors who had put their $ in Icelandic banks.  Seems they did not want to pay back billions with their tax dollars.
  • Iraq – Over 2 million Iraq refugees voted from Foreign countries. They are too afraid to return. Still the world’s largest refugee crisis. Even with the elections there are many signs that the different religious/ethnic factions have no intentions of compromise. Oh well, neither do the two major parties in the USA.

KISS & Stocks (Keep It Simple Stupid)

If you don’t understand a term look in up at Investopedia.com dictionary

AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING!

Index Percentage Volume
Dow +1.17% up
NASDQ +1.48% up
S&P 500 +1.40% up
Russell 2000- +2.08% -

Investors411 record – 5 years of beating benchmark S&P 500 and almost all major US indexes

Technicals, Fundamentals & Analysis

See PositionsStrategy , and Overview for changes made over weekend. (No changes this weekend)

US equities rallied significantly on Friday. but volume was just a wee bit higher. Long term capital is just NOT flowing into equities in the USA. Unlike the start of the bull market in 2009 when we saw massive amounts of volume. Investors are staying on the sidelines. Volume has been for decades the #1 confirmation factor of a price move. However for the last 6 months its been pretty anemic & useless as a forecasting tool.  Basically this looks technically like we are building a bubble and obviously investors are doubting the rally

The Russell 2000 has already broken out to new highs

Overbought US markets (SPX up 6 days in a row, and up 11 of the last 14 trading days) are all close to new highs. The NASDQ is o.o2 points away from a breakout to a new high.

Last Week’s Fearless Forecast

Investors411 predicted a rally at the week’s start that would get sold into because of an overbought market & the unemployment report – Therefore a “flat week” As stated last Friday - ” The unemployment numbers Friday were as good as it gets for US stocks.” The fact that employment is NOT declining means interest rats will stay low and the Fed will keep flooding the economy with money. From Friday AM -  “Expect a rally.”

Miscalculation about the jobs number (I expected worse than a flat -9.7%) and ignoring looking at the exploding BDI (see below) were the reasons for last week’s miscalculations.

This Weeks Fearless Forecast

The McClellan Oscillator hasn’t been this high (+75.33) since last April. We are also approaching a major resistance level – the January  high of 1150 on the benchmark SPX or S&P 500 (now at 1139).  It seems likely that this level will get challenged.

  • Fundamentally it sure looks like the FED has reason NOT to raise interest rates (employment numbers) and that will keep interest rates low – great for stocks.
  • The BDI is exploding higher. (see below)
  • The Gree debt problem seems to have settled and “will not spread.”
  • Any serious attempts at financial regulations seems to be disintegrating.

So fundamentals are moving in one direction against strong technical resistance. Look for a week where at least the NASDQ joins the Russell 2000 and breaks out to a new high, Even though volume is lacking – momentum should make this an up, but volatile week.

Significant Indexes

  • McClellan Oscillator jumped significantly to  +75.33 yesterday We are now well above +60 or Overbought territory. StockCharts has a better version of the McClellan chart ($NYMO) LINK. The only other time we saw numbers on the McClellan move higher than this was three times from November to March 2008/2009. The all time high was +121.86 in the last week of last year.
  • BDI – The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of world trade (also a good indicator of how China is doing since they are huge exporters/importers) has exploded higher in the last few weeks = Bulls rule

Because Investors411 recently changed the Long Term Outlook to Cautiously Bullish - any pullback in the McClellan Oscillator to say +20 would be an opportunity to nibble again.  This market wants to move higher.

Positions

The  Positions Section = latest buys and sells – (Revised positions last weekend) - These are positions I actually own

Wish Investors411 had more stock positions (only @20% invested in stocks because of overbought technical situation) Will keep selling into any major rally the remainder of the portfolio.  Certainly a breakout over SPX 1150 would be one of those situations.  Right now what to look for is are stocks going to go “elliptical” (continue to move higher at a rapid rate) and blow through last years high.

Would sell more into that rally and buy/nibble more on any drop in McClellan to @ +20.

IMAX – 3D Alice in Wonderland had a HUGE $116 million dollar opening. Avatar’s opening weekend was $55 million.

Long Term Outlook = CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

AS ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE INVESTING

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